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Management's Discussion and Analysis

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Management's Discussion and Analysis MANAGEMENT’S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS 10 MANAGEMENT’S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL REVIEW The Management’s Discussion and Analysis dated March 1, 2005 should be read in conjunction with the audited consolidated financial statements of TransCanada Corporation (TransCanada or the company) and the notes thereto for the year ended December 31, 2004. Amounts are stated in Canadian dollars unless otherwise indicated. HIGHLIGHTS Net Income In 2004, net income was $1.032 billion Approximately $2.1 billion was invested in the or $2.13 per share compared to $851 million or acquisition of the Gas Transmission Northwest System $1.76 per share in 2003. and the North Baja System (collectively GTN). Net Earnings In 2004, TransCanada’s net income Balance Sheet In 2004, TransCanada’s shareholders’ from continuing operations (net earnings) increased equity increased by approximately $0.5 billion. $179 million to $980 million or $2.02 per share compared to $801 million or $1.66 per share in 2003. Dividend On February 1, 2005, the Board of Directors of TransCanada raised the quarterly dividend on the Investing Activities In 2004, TransCanada invested company’s outstanding common shares 5.2 per cent more than $2.6 billion (including assumed debt), to $0.305 per share from $0.29 per share for the in the Gas Transmission and Power businesses. quarter ending March 31, 2005. Consolidated Results-at-a-Glance Year ended December 31 (millions of dollars except per share amounts) 2004 2003 2002 Net Income Continuing operations* 980 801 747 Discontinued operations 52 50 – 1,032 851 747 Net Income Per Share – Basic Continuing operations* $2.02 $ 1.66 $ 1.56 Discontinued operations 0.11 0.10 – $2.13 $ 1.76 $ 1.56 Segment Results-at-a-Glance Year ended December 31 (millions of dollars) 2004 2003 2002 Gas Transmission 586 622 653 Power 396 220 146 Corporate (2) (41) (52) Continuing operations* 980 801 747 Discontinued operations 52 50 – Net income 1,032 851 747 * Net earnings. MANAGEMENT’S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS 11 Net income for the year ended December 31, 2004 The decrease in net earnings of $36 million in the was $1.032 billion or $2.13 per share compared Gas Transmission business in 2004 compared to 2003 to $851 million or $1.76 per share for 2003. This were primarily due to a decline in the Alberta System’s includes net income from discontinued operations and Canadian Mainline’s net earnings. The Alberta of $52 million or $0.11 per share in 2004 and System’s net earnings in 2004 reflect the impacts of the $50 million or $0.10 per share in 2003, reflecting Alberta Energy and Utilities Board (EUB) decisions in income recognized on the initially deferred gains 2004 on Phase I of the General Rate Application (GRA) relating to the disposition in 2001 of the company’s and Generic Cost of Capital (GCOC). The decline in the Gas Marketing business. Net income in 2002 was Canadian Mainline’s net earnings was primarily as a $747 million or $1.56 per share. result of a lower rate of return on common equity (ROE) TransCanada’s net earnings for the year ended as determined by the generic ROE formula set by the December 31, 2004 were $980 million or $2.02 per National Energy Board (NEB) and a lower average share compared to $801 million or $1.66 per share investment base. These decreases were partially offset in 2003 and $747 million or $1.56 per share in 2002. by net earnings from GTN, which TransCanada acquired The increase of $179 million or $0.36 per share on November 1, 2004, higher earnings from CrossAlta in 2004 compared to 2003 was primarily due to Gas Storage & Services Ltd. (CrossAlta) and TransCanada significantly higher net earnings from the Power Pipeline Ventures Limited Partnership (Ventures LP), business. In addition, lower net earnings from the and a $7 million gain on sale of the company’s equity Gas Transmission business were offset by reduced interest in the Millennium Pipeline project (Millennium). net expenses in the Corporate segment. The 2003 results included TransCanada’s $11 million share of a positive future income tax benefit adjustment Net earnings from the Power business increased recognized by TransGas de Occidente S.A. (TransGas). $176 million in 2004 compared to 2003 primarily due to the realization in 2004 of a gain of $15 million after The decrease in net expenses of $39 million in the tax ($25 million pre tax) or $0.03 per share on the sale Corporate segment in 2004 was primarily due to the of the ManChief and Curtis Palmer power plants to positive impacts of income tax and foreign exchange TransCanada Power, L.P. (Power LP) and the recognition related items throughout 2004 and the release in 2004 of $172 million or $0.36 per share of dilution and of previously established restructuring provisions. other gains resulting from a reduction in TransCanada’s The increase of $54 million or $0.10 per share in 2003 ownership interest in Power LP and the removal of net earnings compared to 2002 was mainly due to Power LP’s obligation, in 2017, to redeem units not higher net earnings from the Power business and owned by TransCanada. TransCanada was previously reduced net expenses in the Corporate segment, required to fund this redemption, therefore, the removal partially offset by lower net earnings from the Gas of Power LP’s obligation eliminates this requirement. Transmission business. Net earnings from the Power Excluding the above-mentioned $187 million of business in 2003 included equity income of $73 million combined gains included in net earnings related to after tax from TransCanada’s investment in Bruce Power LP and the recognition in 2003 of a $19 million Power and a $19 million after-tax settlement with after-tax settlement with a former counterparty, a former counterparty. The reduction in net earnings Power’s net earnings in 2004 were $8 million higher in the Gas Transmission business in 2003 compared than in 2003. Higher equity income from TransCanada’s to 2002 reflects a decline in the Canadian Mainline investment in Bruce Power L.P. (Bruce Power), acquired and the Alberta System’s net earnings. The 2002 in February 2003, was partially offset by lower results included TransCanada’s $7 million share of a contributions from Eastern Operations and favourable ruling for Great Lakes Gas Transmission TransCanada’s investment in Power LP. Limited Partnership related to Minnesota use tax paid in prior years. 12 MANAGEMENT’S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS Pursuant to a plan of arrangement, effective Nuclear facilities have also played a significant role in May 15, 2003, common shares of TransCanada supplying North America with power in the past and new PipeLines Limited (TCPL) were exchanged on a one- nuclear capacity will likely come on stream over time. to-one basis for common shares of TransCanada. However, the long lead times required to complete new As a result, TCPL became a wholly-owned subsidiary coal and nuclear projects, the associated environmental of TransCanada. The consolidated financial statements and public relations issues, the high capital costs and for the years ended December 31, 2004 and 2003 the difficulty in locating these plants near load centres include the accounts of TransCanada, the consolidated may impede the development and completion of new accounts of all subsidiaries, including TCPL, and coal or nuclear generation over the next five to ten TransCanada’s proportionate share of the accounts of years. As a result, North America is expected to continue the company’s joint venture investments. Comparative to rely on natural gas-fired generation to satisfy its information for the year ended December 31, 2002 growing electricity needs in the near term. This is is that of TCPL, its subsidiaries, and its proportionate expected to lead to a significant increase in natural share of the accounts of its joint venture investments gas consumption. Overall, North American natural gas at that time. demand is expected to grow to 85 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) by 2015, an increase of 15 Bcf/d when TRANSCANADA OVERVIEW compared to 2004. New natural gas-fired power generation is expected to account for approximately TransCanada is a leading North American energy 10 Bcf/d of that growth. company focused on natural gas transmission and power generation and marketing opportunities in While growing demand will provide a number regions where it enjoys significant competitive of opportunities, the natural gas industry also faces advantages. Natural gas transmission and power a number of challenges. North America has entered are complementary businesses for TransCanada. They a period when it will no longer be able to rely solely are driven by similar supply and demand fundamentals, on traditional sources of natural gas supply to meet they are both capital intensive businesses, and use its growing needs. Current high natural gas prices are similar technology and operating practices. They are clear evidence that North America is in a period of businesses with significant long-term growth prospects. transition and significant change. Natural gas supply is tight and this is likely to continue until major investments North American natural gas demand is growing and that are made in the infrastructure required to bring new demand is mainly driven by the demand for electricity. supply to market. Looking forward, production from Experts predict that demand for electricity will increase North America’s traditional basins is expected to remain at an average annual rate of approximately two per flat over the next decade. An increase in production in cent over the next ten years primarily due to a growing the United States Rockies will likely only offset declines population and an increase in gross domestic product.
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