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Daily Letter | 1 Nu Skin Enterprises MOMENTUM CONTINUES WELL

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Daily Letter | 1 Nu Skin Enterprises MOMENTUM CONTINUES WELL Daily Letter | 1 31 October 2012______ Annual EPS Annual Revenue Target Today’s Changes 2012E $3.37 from $3.21 2012E $2.11B from $2.01B $65.00 from $66.00 2013E $3.85 from $3.62 2013E $2.25B from $2.14B Nu Skin Enterprises Scott Van Winkle, CFA 1.617.371.3759 BUY [email protected] NUS : NYSE : US$47.00 Target: US$65.00 Mark Sigal 1.617.788.1591 [email protected] COMPANY STATISTICS: Shares Out diluted: 64.2 Consumer & Retail -- Health, Wellness and Lifestyle Market Cap (M): US$3018.8 52-week Range: 35.44 - 62.01 MOMENTUM CONTINUES WELL Avg. Daily Vol. (000s): 1732.9 ABOVE EXPECTED RATE; REITERATE EV/EBITDA: 6.8 EARNINGS SUMMARY: BUY, TARGET TO $65 FYE Dec 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E P/Sales: 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.3 Investment recommendation P/E: 17.8 13.9 12.2 10.9 Our thesis remains that Nu Skin is in the midst of a powerful Revenue (M): Q1 395.8 462.0A - - product cycle, coupled with a concerted effort to improve Q2 424.4 593.2A - - Q3 428.4 526.2A - - margins that should drive above-average EPS growth. Q4 495.3 528.1 - - Total 1744.0 2109.5 2248.3 2400.2 Investment highlights EPS: Q1 0.56 0.74A - - Q2 0.65 0.94A - - Nu Skin reported a much stronger than expected Q3 driven Q3 0.67 0.87A - - by robust sales growth and very healthy distributor trends. Q4 0.76 0.82 - - Total 2.64 3.37 3.85 4.32 The quarter was helped by ~$28 million in sales tied to Q2 SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE: limited time offerings (LTO) that carried over, but grew 20% in local currency without the benefit. Momentum should carry forward into Q4 despite a challenging comp given ageLOC launches in Japan and Korea. Q4 guidance was favorable to the Street (better sales, in-line EPS) with Japan expected to be up 15%. F2013 guidance comes at the November 14 analyst day. Raising 2012E rev/EPS to $2.11B/$3.37 from $2.01B/$3.21. 2013E rev/EPS goes to $2.25B/$3.85 from $2.14B/$3.62. Source: Interactive Data Corporation COMPANY DESCRIPTION: Valuation Nu Skin is a leading and innovative direct seller of personal care product and nutritional supplements NUS trades at 12x 2013E EPS and 7x EBITDA. The PE is at a operating in over 50 markets worldwide. 25% discount to the 10-year average of 15.8x forward earnings. All amounts in US$ unless otherwise noted. Price target revised to $65 from $66, reflecting peer valuations. Canaccord Genuity is the global capital markets group of Canaccord Financial Inc. (CF : TSX | CF. : LSE) The recommendations and opinions expressed in this research report accurately reflect the Investment Analyst’s personal, independent and objective views about any and all the Designated Investments and Relevant Issuers discussed herein. For important information, please see the Important Disclosures section in the appendix of this document or visit Canaccord Genuity’s Online Disclosure Database. Daily Letter | 2 31 October 2012 INVESTMENT CONCLUSION Nu Skin reported surprisingly strong Q3 results despite challenging comparisons and a lack of new product launches in the quarter that led us to believe that the quarter wouldn’t provide any excitement for investors. The Q3 results are further evidence of the sustainability of NuSkin’s significant momentum even in the wake of the company’s largest ever limited time offer (LTO) in Q2 ($165 million ageLOC launch in Greater China and South Asia/Pacific). The momentum is expected to deliver growth in Q4 against a challenging comparison where we had assumed a flat comparison would be the most optimistic outcome. Even excluding $28 million in sales spillover from the Q2 LTO, NuSkin generated 20% sales growth in local currency during Q3, accelerating active distributor growth (now 10%) and healthy 20%+ executive level distributor growth. The favorable trends haven’t been interrupted and the Q4 ageLOC launches in Japan and South Korea have driven Q4 top line guidance well above us and the Street. The earnings upside is somewhat tempered by higher selling expense associated with higher commissions on the higher distributor productivity, but is a high class challenge and the associated volume is delivering significant G&A leverage. Further, a lower share count in Q4 given $66.3 million in repurchases during Q3 should provide additional earnings leverage. The next catalyst likely comes in just two weeks at the November 14 analyst day, where management will likely provide F2013 guidance and initial detail surrounding its venture into weight management. In F2013, the next major new product will be a weight management system that we believe could easily surpass the $150 million launch level, if not double given the recent momentum. We assume in our forecasts that weight management is just equivalent to recent launches. We continue to believe that Nu Skin is in the midst of a powerful product cycle that is driving momentum in distributor growth and sales productivity that will lead the company toward its $4/share of EPS target faster than most anticipate. While there will always be doubters of the direct selling model – and Nu Skin has its own challenges and seems to be a magnet for negative publicity of late – the company’s long-term growth in most major markets (Japan the well known exception) is evidence of the sustainability of the sales model, and the attractiveness of the business model is clear in the financial results. We reiterate our BUY rating and recommend investors take advantage of an opportunity to buy NUS at a discount to historical average forward PE while business momentum is arguably at the highest level of the company’s history. Q3 RESULTS NUS posted a much stronger than expected Q3 reflecting continued strength in Greater China and South Asia/Pacific, accelerating growth in Europe, consistent performance in the Americas and the return to growth in North Asia (specifically Japan). In sum, NUS delivered $0.14 of EPS upside versus our forecast ($0.10 Daily Letter | 3 31 October 2012 beat vs. the Street) on an impressive $61 million sales beat ($45.5 million beat vs. the Street) despite a 3% currency headwind. While a summary of variances versus our forecast is shown in Figure 4, we note that EBIT margin of 15.7% was directly in line with our estimate as much stronger than expected G&A leverage (120 bps) largely offset a slighter softer gross margin (50 bps) and selling expense deleverage (80 bps). A lower than forecasted tax rate (35.2% vs. our modeled 36.0%) and lower share count (62.1 million vs. our modeled 63 million) further contributed to the EPS beat beyond the massive top line outperformance. A further look into the quarter reveals that sales benefited roughly $28 million from the spill over of limited time offer sales made in Q2 tied to the ageLOC launches in Greater China and South Asia/Pacific. Even excluding this contribution, NuSkin posted 20% sales growth on a local currency basis and 40% sales growth in Greater China. Local currency growth in Japan (+1%) and South Korea (+6%) was notable, as this marked the first quarter of local growth for Japan in essentially a decade and a return to local currency growth in South Korea following negative growth in Q2 after a compensation plan change. Japan is now expected to be up 15% in Q4. Moving down the P&L, gross margins were flat YOY at 83.5% and are likely to remain in the 83.5% to 84% range moving forward. The 180bp uptick in selling expense was attributable to 1) higher than normal sales volume and commission payouts tied to limited time offers, 2) more sales leaders achieving higher qualification levels that include greater incentive expense (“commission creep”), and 3) the beginning of accruals against stretch targets in some markets such as South Asia/Pacific and Greater China given their explosive growth. G&A leverage should help to offset some of the elevated selling expense (expected in the 44-45% range in Q4 given limited time offer activity in Japan and Korea) and yield overall EBIT margin consistency, if not expansion. The lower than forecast tax rate of 35.2% should return back to the 36% level in Q4, while a further incremental reduction in share count in Q4 ($66.3 million in share repurchases in Q3) should provide a bit of a tailwind as much of the Q3 repurchase activity happened in the second half of the quarter. A key leading indicator accelerates. Active distributor growth accelerated 200bp QOQ to 10%, with the total number of distributors now standing at 913,000. The gains were lead by Greater China (+38%), South Asia/Pacific (+14%) and Europe (+11%), while North Asia and the Americas were relatively stable YOY. Executive level distributors were up a healthy 21% to 48,200, normalizing from the prior quarter’s 41% growth attributable to the Greater China and South Asia/Pacific ageLOC launches. Ultimately, the executive and active distributor totals should converge with any upward trend in active distributors seen as incrementally favorable. Consistent with active distributor trends, Greater China (+51%) and South Asia/Pacific (+22%) led the growth, while Europe posted impressive growth (+23%) as well. The Americas continues to generate solid mid-teens executive Daily Letter | 4 31 October 2012 level distributor growth (+14%), while North Asia reversed several prior quarters of declines to achieve 2% positive growth. Figure 1: Quarterly results comparison Fiscal Year End - December Canaccord Income Statement Actual Last Year YOY Estimate In $ million, except per share amounts Q3:12A Q3:11A % Growth Q3:12E % Difference Revenue 526.2 428.4 22.8% 465.2 13.1% COGS (86.8) (70.6) 22.8% (74.4) 16.6% Gross Profit 439.4
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