seven million people, setting a new THE IRE ET TIME A Foreign Policy midyear high. The situation will only get worse: in the next few decades, climate for the Climate change threatens to cause shortages of food and water, render coastlines that are home to hundreds of millions of people How American Leadership unsuitable for habitation, and unleash Can Avert Catastrophe a stream of refugees that will dwarf the flow during the recent European and Todd Stern migration crisis. Tackling the climate emergency will n September 2019, after a two-year require decisive action. In 2018, the un’s drought and some of the hottest days Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Ion record, wildfires broke out across Change made it clear that to avoid eastern Australia. The fires raged for significant risks to planetary health and seven months and consumed 75,000 human well-being, the and square miles. They displaced tens of other significant emitters must cut their thousands of people and destroyed almost carbon emissions to “net zero” by 2050, a 3,000 homes. In Melbourne, the air daunting task, well beyond what most quality was 30 percent worse than in thought necessary at the time of the 2015 famously toxic New Delhi. Researchers Paris agreement on climate change. Even estimate that more than one billion if countries increase the amount of animals died in the conflagration. And the carbon dioxide they can capture and total economic damage is expected to sequester, they will still have to radically exceed the previous $4.4 billion record set decarbonize their energy, transportation, by the Black Saturday fires in 2009. and manufacturing systems in the next The Australian fires were a particu- 30 years, while also transforming agricul- larly harsh reminder of the effects of ture and arresting deforestation. climate change, but they were hardly the The United States, in particular, will only one to make the headlines recently. require both a full mobilization at home Between 2010 and 2019, natural disasters and an unhesitating commitment to cost the world approximately $2.98 leadership abroad. A president ready to trillion, making the last decade the take on climate change must organize costliest one on record. And in the first the government to meet this challenge half of 2019, extreme weather displaced and work with Congress to enact a broad program of investments and incentives JOHN PODESTA is Founder and a Member of for the development and dissemination the Board of Directors of the Center for American Progress. He served as Chief of of clean technology. Abroad, the United Staff for U.S. President and States must devise a climate-centered Counselor to U.S. President , foreign policy that uses the country’s overseeing climate and energy policy. political capital and economic resources TODD STERN is a Senior Fellow at the to drive the decarbonization of the global Brookings Institution and served as Special Envoy for Climate Change under U.S. economy. Several changes are needed— President Barack Obama. starting at the White House and extend-

May/June 2020 39 John Podesta and Todd Stern ing to key bilateral relationships, interna- major threat assessments, but more tional forums, and financial could be done to articulate the profound institutions—to accelerate a global clean risks from climate change to U.S. energy transformation and galvanize the interests abroad—risks that include political will necessary to confront climate state failure, migration, and conflict. change. The tools to spur clean techno- The United States should also logical innovation, promote sustainable resume its historic leadership in climate investment and job creation, and confront science and climate data collection. In environmental injustices are within the past, it has made information from political leaders’ grasp. Heads of state American satellites, sonars, and other and government need only be willing remote-sensing technologies available to employ them. to decision-makers around the world as they planned for the impacts of climate CHANGE BEGINS AT HOME change. But the priority given to To reach net-zero emissions by 2050, climate science has withered under the the United States’ executive branch will Trump administration. have to undergo structural changes. The To achieve the country’s sustainabil- next president should create a national ity goals, the United States should triple climate council, overseen by an assistant its investment in climate science and data to the president for climate policy. collection. And the country should once Modeled after the National Security more give science pride of place in Council and the National Economic decision-making, appoint scientists to key Council, the National Climate Council advisory positions, and establish rigorous would boast a specialized support staff scientific standards across agencies. New capable of directing and delivering funds would also help the country quickly quantifiable results across the federal rebuild the U.S. science workforce after government. It would spearhead execu- losses during the Trump years, bringing tive action and legislation and coordi- in new talent that can tackle the chal- nate between actors at the state and lenges of the coming century. local levels. And in conjunction with That said, officials need to be aware top members of the National Security that a return by the United States to a Council, the proposed council would position of leadership on climate change develop and execute a diplomatic and would be greeted by some skepticism on security strategy to propel rapid clean the part of the international community. energy deployment, build resilience The other major players know that they against climate-change-induced disas- need the United States, but they have ters, and pressure reluctant actors to been burned twice: first when President achieve the net-zero goal. What’s more, George W. Bush refused to sign the the president should direct the Penta- Kyoto Protocol, in which only devel- gon and the intelligence community to oped countries promised to reduce their expand their treatment of the climate greenhouse gas emissions, and then threat out to 2050 and beyond. To date, when President Donald Trump an- both institutions have included useful nounced the United States’ withdrawal comments on climate change in their from the Paris agreement. This under-

40 foreign affairs A Foreign Policy for the Climate

In the heat of the moment: fighting brush fires in Cathcart, Australia, January 2020

scores the pressing need, as the coun- contain climate change. The deal brings try moves forward, for Republicans to countries together each year, urges start joining Democrats in recognizing them to ramp up their action and build the reality and urgency of climate resilience, takes stock of their progress change so that Washington can move toward the 2015 goals, scrutinizes the past the start-and-stop pattern of U.S. provision of financial assistance, and climate engagement. A climate-centered provides a platform for joint engage- foreign policy would go a long way ment. The agreement is also the toward rebuilding trust. It would go symbolic embodiment of the world’s

MATTHEW ABBOTT / THE NEW YORK TIMES / REDUX / NEW YORK TIMES THE ABBOTT MATTHEW even further if the United States, in commitment to combat climate change. word and deed, chose to abandon gradu- Beyond rejoining, the United States alism and embrace the net-zero goal; will need to prepare new emission targets after all, if the country lacks the politi- that are both consistent with the net-zero cal will to combat climate change at imperative and credible. In addition, home, it will be unable to earn the bona the United States and its allies should fides it needs to lead internationally. push all countries, especially the major emitters, to submit their own strategies THE PRODIGAL SON RETURNS for getting to net-zero emissions by To convey its renewed commitment, the 2050, as called for in the Paris agreement. United States should promptly an- The Paris agreement is not the only nounce its intention to rejoin the Paris institution that the current administra- agreement. The agreement is a crucial tion has been neglecting. In 2009, the component of the global effort to United States launched the Major

May/June 2020 41 John Podesta and Todd Stern

Economies Forum on Energy and vulnerable states from Africa and Asia, Climate (mef), a group of 17 economies most of whom are not big emitters. But representing some 80 percent of global they are strong proponents of the emissions that gathered at the ministe- net-zero goal and have the moral rial level to facilitate the climate nego- standing to put salutary pressure on all tiations. The next administration should the important players. revive the mef and recommend that its members’ leaders meet every two years GREENBACKS FOR A GREEN EARTH to review where the world’s largest Developing economies badly need economies stand on climate change and investment in low-carbon energy sys- what new forms of joint action they tems and in infrastructure that can should undertake. (Government minis- withstand climate change. The United ters should meet twice a year to prepare States, together with key allies in for the meetings.) The focus of this new Europe and Asia, should bring together mef would be the challenge of global a coalition of international financial decarbonization, and its first order of institutions, such as the World Bank and business would be to secure agreement the International Monetary Fund, and on the net-zero goal. The body could regional development banks—such as also promote the development and the Asian Infrastructure Investment dissemination of sustainable technology, Bank, which the United States should become a venue for sharing policy ideas join—to encourage lending practices in and best practices, and support the line with the net-zero goal and quickly efforts of multinational businesses to set direct substantial investment toward clean energy standards. Argentina, sustainable infrastructure and develop- Saudi Arabia, and Turkey should be ment. In addition, the United States invited to join in order to provide should build a coalition to press the major additional representation for important coal-financing countries—China, Japan, regions and so that the mef and the and South Korea—to put a moratorium G-20, which would then share the same on coal investments around the world, membership, could coordinate the all the while ensuring that funds will be timing of their meetings. available for clean alternatives. The United States should also work Washington must also step up its own with key European allies to reinvigorate climate assistance to poor countries. In the High Ambition Coalition—which 2014, Obama pledged $3 billion over a was the fiercest champion of bold four-year period to the new Green Cli- mitigation measures at the Paris nego- mate Fund and secured $500 million from tiations—so that the organization can Congress for each of the next two years. advocate both within the Paris regime But the Trump administration cut this and outside it for measures to achieve funding off. The next president should net-zero emissions by 2050. The mem- prioritize getting the remaining $2 billion bers of the High Ambition Coalition out the door and should follow the lead include the United Kingdom and the of such countries as France, Germany, eu, a group of progressive Latin Ameri- Norway, and the United Kingdom, which can and Caribbean countries, and many doubled their 2014 pledges in 2019.

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Of course, the existing money is not designed to push companies to disclose yet being used properly. Huge amounts the risk that climate change poses to their of funding are perversely protecting businesses so that markets can price that fossil fuels at the very moment when risk. But its recommendations lack impact the world needs to start breaking the because disclosures are voluntary. The dirty habit. Direct subsidies amount to U.S. Securities and Exchange Commis- well over $500 billion per year globally, sion and other financial regulators around and total subsidies stood at over $5.2 the world should commit to adopting and trillion in 2017. Washington should enforcing the tcfd’s protocols. pressure other governments to elimi- nate these subsidies, an effort Obama FRIENDS, NEW AND OLD began in the G-20 in 2009. A climate-centered foreign policy would The next president should also enact also shape the United States’ bilateral carbon tariffs on imports from countries relations with both partners and rivals. with inadequate climate policies. Such The United Kingdom and members of “border adjustment mechanisms” were the eu have been leaders in the fight part of the Waxman-Markey cap-and- against climate change for decades, and trade bill, which was approved by the they would remain essential U.S. allies House of Representatives in 2009 but in the pursuit of a net-zero world. never voted on in the Senate. Ursula von Together with the United States, these der Leyen, the president of the Euro- countries represent more than a third of pean Commission, has called for carbon global gdp and an equal share of both tariffs in the eu, as well. Washington China’s and India’s export markets. This should embrace such tariffs and support kind of clout gives them the leverage to other governments doing the same. influence Chinese and Indian climate Additionally, the United States behavior. Other developed countries, should push for an agreement to facili- such as Japan and New Zealand, have tate trade in environmental goods— also been important U.S. partners in the such as products that produce renewable past and would be again. Canada and energy or improve energy efficiency— Mexico should also be close allies, both an effort the World Trade Organization in driving strong climate action across pursued during the Obama years but North America and in joining a global never completed. And it should make coalition for low- or no-carbon economic sure that all bilateral trade agreements transformation. The U.S. government include environmental and labor stan- will need to collaborate with all these dards as enforceable components. players on a number of fronts, including The next administration should also synchronizing policy approaches to capitalize on the work of the Task Force rapidly scale up the production and use on Climate-Related Financial Disclo- of clean and efficient energy. sures (tcfd), a body set up in 2015 by But the United States will also have the Financial Stability Board, itself an to work with more challenging partners. organ of the G-20, to help public and China, in particular, has such an enor- private actors worldwide make informed mous carbon footprint (it accounts for emission decisions. The task force is around 29 percent of global carbon

44 foreign affairs A Foreign Policy for the Climate emissions) and so much influence in the The United States will also have to developing world that there is no way deal with India, the third-largest to reach global climate goals without it. emitter, behind only China and the During the Obama years, both the U.S. United States. The country’s use of and the Chinese governments recognized renewable energy is increasing impres- the potential for climate change to serve sively; New Delhi has worked effec- as a positive pillar of the two countries’ tively—with support from the U.S. often fractious bilateral relationship. government and the private sector—to This culminated in a joint announcement develop green buildings and electric in 2014 in which both governments vehicles, yet the country is still forging pledged to curb their emissions, with ahead with plans to build ten new major China agreeing for the first time to stop coal installations. The United States its total emissions from growing by 2030. should propose to Indian Prime Minis- Today, the challenge is even greater, ter Narendra Modi a larger-scale, more given the tensions with China over trade, dynamic clean energy partnership than regional security, and human rights. But ever before, focused on policy as well as not only must the United States con- technological research, development, tinue to work with China on climate and dissemination. change; it must also put progress toward Brazil will also need to be the target a net-zero world in 2050 at the very of American climate diplomacy. Under center of the relationship. There will be President Jair Bolsonaro, the country plenty of U.S.-Chinese competition in has gone from being a constructive the future, given the two countries’ player on climate change, substantially diverging interests, but the setting of reducing deforestation in the Amazon priorities matters. The harsh reality is that River basin, to a first-order threat. if the United States and China don’t get Bolsonaro is implementing policies that climate change right, the fallout from that risk tipping the region into an ecologi- failure will dwarf most other issues, cal death spiral that could cause the including those stemming from U.S. com- release of hundreds of billions of tons petition with China. of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, Early on, the next president should wipe out ten percent of global biodiver- organize a meeting with Chinese sity, and destroy a forest system that is President Xi Jinping to collaborate on essential to regulating the entire re- climate change. At the meeting, both gion’s rainfall. The next U.S. president leaders should attempt to establish will need to work urgently with Latin parameters regarding the scale and speed American allies—including progressive of decarbonization globally and in their friends such as Chile, Colombia, and two countries. No adequate progress is Peru—to urge Bolsonaro to abandon possible if the United States and China the catastrophic course he is steering are working from fundamentally for the Amazon basin. There is no road different assumptions about what needs to global well-being without Brazil. to be done and when; but if they could Some countries will inevitably resist come to a genuine meeting of the minds, change because they have so much at it would move the world. stake in the global fossil fuel economy.

May/June 2020 45 John Podesta and Todd Stern

The United States itself, on the strength to mention the United States’ enormous of the fracking revolution, has become carbon footprint—make the country an the largest oil and gas producer in the indispensable player in such discussions world, so it, too, must plan for the and actions. Pull the United States out decline of the fossil fuel sector with the of the equation, and the energy and rise of clean energy. But the United focus dedicated to fighting climate States has the advantage of a fully change dwindles from Beijing to New diversified economy, whereas many Delhi to Brasília. In spite of the recent fossil fuel producers do not. There is no lull, however, the United States’ policy easy answer here, but Washington will toward climate change could be rapidly need to work closely with its allies to transformed, especially with a new help producing countries find a path president in the White House. We have forward consistent with the necessary sketched out what the changes could emission reductions. look like if climate were made the Finally, climate change will prompt a central organizing principle of U.S. large-scale movement of people that foreign policy. The public, for its part, will threaten stability and democratic is increasingly eager to be led, as are politics. Indeed, the migration crises in large swaths of the business community. Europe and on the U.S.-Mexican The international community will border will likely seem minor compared doubtless remain a bit wary of the sharp with the global exoduses prompted by turns that U.S. politics can produce, but rising temperatures. As severe climate other countries are hungry for the change displaces more people, the United States to lead again. A new international community will be forced president who sees the climate threat to either change the legal definition of for what it is could make a game- refugees to include climate migrants or changing difference. It is late in the create a new category altogether. (The day, but not yet too late.∂ current definition is focused on political persecution rather than environmental degradation.) The United States’ ambassador to the un should take up this cause in the Security Council, and the United States should collaborate with its partners in the worst-affected regions to explore the best ways to support internal refugees and outline the legal rights of those fleeing climate change, along with practical plans for helping them. The United States’ relative absence from climate mitigation and adaptation efforts under the Trump administration has been highly problematic. U.S. resources, influence, and expertise—not

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