Foreign Policy for the Climate 2020.Pdf

seven million people, setting a new THE FIRE NEXT TIME A Foreign Policy midyear high. The situation will only get worse: in the next few decades, climate for the Climate change threatens to cause shortages of food and water, render coastlines that are home to hundreds of millions of people How American Leadership unsuitable for habitation, and unleash Can Avert Catastrophe a stream of refugees that will dwarf the flow during the recent European John Podesta and Todd Stern migration crisis. Tackling the climate emergency will n September 2019, after a two-year require decisive action. In 2018, the un’s drought and some of the hottest days Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Ion record, wildfires broke out across Change made it clear that to avoid eastern Australia. The fires raged for significant risks to planetary health and seven months and consumed 75,000 human well-being, the United States and square miles. They displaced tens of other significant emitters must cut their thousands of people and destroyed almost carbon emissions to “net zero” by 2050, a 3,000 homes. In Melbourne, the air daunting task, well beyond what most quality was 30 percent worse than in thought necessary at the time of the 2015 famously toxic New Delhi. Researchers Paris agreement on climate change. Even estimate that more than one billion if countries increase the amount of animals died in the conflagration. And the carbon dioxide they can capture and total economic damage is expected to sequester, they will still have to radically exceed the previous $4.4 billion record set decarbonize their energy, transportation, by the Black Saturday fires in 2009. and manufacturing systems in the next The Australian fires were a particu- 30 years, while also transforming agricul- larly harsh reminder of the effects of ture and arresting deforestation. climate change, but they were hardly the The United States, in particular, will only one to make the headlines recently. require both a full mobilization at home Between 2010 and 2019, natural disasters and an unhesitating commitment to cost the world approximately $2.98 leadership abroad. A president ready to trillion, making the last decade the take on climate change must organize costliest one on record. And in the first the government to meet this challenge half of 2019, extreme weather displaced and work with Congress to enact a broad program of investments and incentives JOHN PODESTA is Founder and a Member of for the development and dissemination the Board of Directors of the Center for American Progress. He served as Chief of of clean technology. Abroad, the United Staff for U.S. President Bill Clinton and States must devise a climate-centered Counselor to U.S. President Barack Obama, foreign policy that uses the country’s overseeing climate and energy policy. political capital and economic resources TODD STERN is a Senior Fellow at the to drive the decarbonization of the global Brookings Institution and served as Special Envoy for Climate Change under U.S. economy. Several changes are needed— President Barack Obama. starting at the White House and extend- May/June 2020 39 John Podesta and Todd Stern ing to key bilateral relationships, interna- major threat assessments, but more tional forums, and financial could be done to articulate the profound institutions—to accelerate a global clean risks from climate change to U.S. energy transformation and galvanize the interests abroad—risks that include political will necessary to confront climate state failure, migration, and conflict. change. The tools to spur clean techno- The United States should also logical innovation, promote sustainable resume its historic leadership in climate investment and job creation, and confront science and climate data collection. In environmental injustices are within the past, it has made information from political leaders’ grasp. Heads of state American satellites, sonars, and other and government need only be willing remote-sensing technologies available to employ them. to decision-makers around the world as they planned for the impacts of climate CHANGE BEGINS AT HOME change. But the priority given to To reach net-zero emissions by 2050, climate science has withered under the the United States’ executive branch will Trump administration. have to undergo structural changes. The To achieve the country’s sustainabil- next president should create a national ity goals, the United States should triple climate council, overseen by an assistant its investment in climate science and data to the president for climate policy. collection. And the country should once Modeled after the National Security more give science pride of place in Council and the National Economic decision-making, appoint scientists to key Council, the National Climate Council advisory positions, and establish rigorous would boast a specialized support staff scientific standards across agencies. New capable of directing and delivering funds would also help the country quickly quantifiable results across the federal rebuild the U.S. science workforce after government. It would spearhead execu- losses during the Trump years, bringing tive action and legislation and coordi- in new talent that can tackle the chal- nate between actors at the state and lenges of the coming century. local levels. And in conjunction with That said, officials need to be aware top members of the National Security that a return by the United States to a Council, the proposed council would position of leadership on climate change develop and execute a diplomatic and would be greeted by some skepticism on security strategy to propel rapid clean the part of the international community. energy deployment, build resilience The other major players know that they against climate-change-induced disas- need the United States, but they have ters, and pressure reluctant actors to been burned twice: first when President achieve the net-zero goal. What’s more, George W. Bush refused to sign the the president should direct the Penta- Kyoto Protocol, in which only devel- gon and the intelligence community to oped countries promised to reduce their expand their treatment of the climate greenhouse gas emissions, and then threat out to 2050 and beyond. To date, when President Donald Trump an- both institutions have included useful nounced the United States’ withdrawal comments on climate change in their from the Paris agreement. This under- 40 foreign affairs A Foreign Policy for the Climate In the heat of the moment: fighting brush fires in Cathcart, Australia, January 2020 scores the pressing need, as the coun- contain climate change. The deal brings try moves forward, for Republicans to countries together each year, urges start joining Democrats in recognizing them to ramp up their action and build the reality and urgency of climate resilience, takes stock of their progress change so that Washington can move toward the 2015 goals, scrutinizes the past the start-and-stop pattern of U.S. provision of financial assistance, and climate engagement. A climate-centered provides a platform for joint engage- foreign policy would go a long way ment. The agreement is also the toward rebuilding trust. It would go symbolic embodiment of the world’s MATTHEW ABBOTTTHETIMESYORK / NEW REDUX/ even further if the United States, in commitment to combat climate change. word and deed, chose to abandon gradu- Beyond rejoining, the United States alism and embrace the net-zero goal; will need to prepare new emission targets after all, if the country lacks the politi- that are both consistent with the net-zero cal will to combat climate change at imperative and credible. In addition, home, it will be unable to earn the bona the United States and its allies should fides it needs to lead internationally. push all countries, especially the major emitters, to submit their own strategies THE PRODIGAL SON RETURNS for getting to net-zero emissions by To convey its renewed commitment, the 2050, as called for in the Paris agreement. United States should promptly an- The Paris agreement is not the only nounce its intention to rejoin the Paris institution that the current administra- agreement. The agreement is a crucial tion has been neglecting. In 2009, the component of the global effort to United States launched the Major May/June 2020 41 John Podesta and Todd Stern Economies Forum on Energy and vulnerable states from Africa and Asia, Climate (mef), a group of 17 economies most of whom are not big emitters. But representing some 80 percent of global they are strong proponents of the emissions that gathered at the ministe- net-zero goal and have the moral rial level to facilitate the climate nego- standing to put salutary pressure on all tiations. The next administration should the important players. revive the mef and recommend that its members’ leaders meet every two years GREENBACKS FOR A GREEN EARTH to review where the world’s largest Developing economies badly need economies stand on climate change and investment in low-carbon energy sys- what new forms of joint action they tems and in infrastructure that can should undertake. (Government minis- withstand climate change. The United ters should meet twice a year to prepare States, together with key allies in for the meetings.) The focus of this new Europe and Asia, should bring together mef would be the challenge of global a coalition of international financial decarbonization, and its first order of institutions, such as the World Bank and business would be to secure agreement the International Monetary Fund, and on the net-zero goal. The body could regional development banks—such as also promote the development and the Asian Infrastructure Investment dissemination of sustainable technology, Bank, which the United States should become a venue for sharing policy ideas join—to encourage lending practices in and best practices, and support the line with the net-zero goal and quickly efforts of multinational businesses to set direct substantial investment toward clean energy standards.

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