1 The Relative Contributions of Temperature and Moisture to Heat Stress 2 Changes Under Warming ∗ 3 Nicholas J. Lutsko 4 Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California at San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA ∗ 5 Corresponding author address: Nicholas Lutsko,
[email protected] 6 E-mail:
[email protected] Generated using v4.3.2 of the AMS LATEX template 1 ABSTRACT 7 Increases in the severity of heat stress extremes are potentially one of the 8 most impactful consequences of climate change, affecting human comfort, 9 productivity, health and mortality in many places on Earth. Heat stress results 10 from a combination of elevated temperature and humidity, but the relative con- 11 tributions each of these makes to heat stress changes have yet to be quantified. 12 Here, conditions on the baseline specific humidity are derived for when spe- 13 cific humidity changes will dominate heat stress changes (as measured using 14 the equivalent potential temperature, qE), and for when temperature changes 15 will dominate. Separate conditions are derived over ocean and over land, in 16 addition to a condition for when relative humidity changes dominate over the 17 temperature response at fixed relative humidity. These conditions are used to 18 interpret the qE responses in transient warming simulations with an ensemble 19 of models participating in the Sixth Climate Model Intercomparison Project. 20 The regional pattern of qE changes is shown to be largely determined by the 21 pattern of specific humidity changes, with the pattern of temperature changes 22 playing a secondary role. This holds whether considering changes in mean 23 summertime qE or in extreme (98th percentile) qE events.