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GLOBAL TRENDS in RENEWABLE ENERGY INVESTMENT 2016 Frankfurt School-UNEP Centre/BNEF GLOBAL TRENDS IN RENEWABLE ENERGY INVESTMENT 2016 Frankfurt School-UNEP Centre/BNEF. 2016. Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment 2016, http://www.fs-unep-centre.org (Frankfurt am Main) Copyright © Frankfurt School of Finance & Management gGmbH 2016. This publication may be reproduced in whole or in part in any form for educational or non-profit purposes without special permission from the copyright holder, as long as provided acknowledgement of the source is made. Frankfurt School – UNEP Collaborating Centre for Climate & Sustainable Energy Finance would appreciate receiving a copy of any publication that uses this publication as source. No use of this publication may be made for resale or for any other commercial purpose whatsoever without prior permission in writing from Frankfurt School of Finance & Management gGmbH. Disclaimer Frankfurt School of Finance & Management: The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Frankfurt School of Finance & Management concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Moreover, the views expressed do not necessarily represent the decision or the stated policy of the Frankfurt School of Finance & Management, nor does citing of trade names or commercial processes constitute endorsement. Cover photo courtesy of Teun van den Dries/Shutterstock.com Photos on pages 13, 16, 18, 24, 27, 31, 33, 34, 46, 55, 58, 61, 67 from Bloomberg Mediasource Photos on other pages reproduced with the permission of: Grupo Clavijo (page 28); AES (page 37); Axpo Holdings (page 41); Acciona (44), Absolute Solar and Wind (page 49); Mainstream Renewable Power (pages 50, 64, 73); Masdar (page 51); Rame Energy (page 57); Voith (page 65); ORE Catapult (page 69); 3Sun (page 63); Voith (page 65); OpenHydro (page 67); Tidal Energy Ltd (page 71); Martifer Solar (page 75); Minesto (page 77); Solarpack (page 79); wpd (page 81) TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ...................................................................................................................................... 4 FOREWORD FROM BAN KI-MOON ..................................................................................................................... 5 FOREWORD FROM ACHIM STEINER, CHRISTIANA FIGUERES AND UDO STEFFENS ........................................ 6 LIST OF FIGURES .................................................................................................................................................. 7 METHODOLOGY AND DEFINITIONS ................................................................................................................... 9 KEY FINDINGS ...................................................................................................................................................... 11 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...................................................................................................................................... 12 - Developing world ahead - Energy abundant, competition on costs 1. INVESTMENT BY TYPE OF ECONOMY .................................................................................................... 20 - Developed versus developing countries - The leading 10 countries - Developed economies - China, India, Brazil - Other developing economies 2. PUTTING SUSTAINABLE ENERGY INTO PERSPECTIVE ............................................................................ 30 - Renewables versus fossil - The ageing process - The emissions outlook and renewables - Box on electric vehicles 3. FOCUS CHAPTER: RENEWABLES AND STORAGE ................................................................................... 36 - The need for balancing - The storage landscape - Behind-the-meter storage - Policy push 4. INVESTMENT SOURCES ........................................................................................................................... 42 - Debt - Equity - Box on innovations in 2015 5. ASSET FINANCE ........................................................................................................................................ 48 - Box on large hydro-electric projects 6. SMALL DISTRIBUTED CAPACITY .............................................................................................................. 54 - Box on emerging markets and small PV 7. PUBLIC MARKETS ..................................................................................................................................... 60 - Yieldco rollercoaster 8. VENTURE CAPITAL AND PRIVATE EQUITY .............................................................................................. 66 9. RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT ............................................................................................................. 72 10. ACQUISITION ACTIVITY ........................................................................................................................... 78 GLOSSARY ........................................................................................................................................................... 82 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This report was commissioned by UNEP’s Division of Technology, Industry and Economic (DTIE) in cooperation with Frankfurt School-UNEP Collaborating Centre for Climate & Sustainable Energy Finance and produced in collaboration with Bloomberg New Energy Finance. CONCEPT AND EDITORIAL OVERSIGHT Angus McCrone (Lead Author, Chief Editor) Ulf Moslener (Lead Editor) Francoise d’Estais Eric Usher Christine Grüning CONTRIBUTORS Joseph Byrne Luke Mills David Strahan Rohan Boyle Bryony Collins Kieron Stopforth Lisa Becker COORDINATION Angus McCrone DESIGN AND LAYOUT The Bubblegate Company Limited MEDIA OUTREACH Moira O’Brien-Malone (UNEP) Shereen Zorba (UNEP) Sophie Loran (UNEP) Terry Collins Jennifer MacDonald (Bloomberg) Angelika Werner (Frankfurt School of Finance & Management) THANKS TO THE FOLLOWING EXPERTS WHO REVIEWED AND PROVIDED FEEDBACK ON THE DRAFT REPORT: Mark Fulton, Tanja Faller, Michaela Pulkert, Tom Thorsch Krader, Tobias Rinke, Sabine Miltner, Barbara Buchner, Federico Mazza, Padraig Oliver, Rodney Boyd, Donovan Escalante, Valerio Micale, Dario Abramskiehn, Jessica Williams Supported by the Federal Republic of Germany 4 FOREWORD FROM BAN KI-MOON FOREWORD FROM BAN KI-MOON Reducing the risks of climate change requires urgent action now. The Paris Agreement, universally adopted in December 2015 by all Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, finally provides the policy signals the private sector has asked for to help accelerate the low-carbon transformation of the global economy. We have entered a new era of clean energy growth that can fuel a future of opportunity and greater prosperity for every person on the planet. Governments, businesses and investors around the world are realising that the progression to low-emission, climate-resilient growth is inevitable, beneficial and already under way. In 2015, significant strides were made in the financing of renewable energy technologies. Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment 2016 increases our confidence that a low-carbon world is attainable and that we are on the right path to reach our objectives, including those under the Sustainable Development Goals. In 2015, renewable energy set new records for investment and new capacity added. Investments reached nearly $286 billion, more than six times more than in 2004, and, for the first time, more than half of all added power generation capacity came from renewables. In spite of these positive findings, to keep global temperature rise well below 2 degrees and aim for 1.5 degrees, we must immediately shift away from fossil fuels. Sustainable, renewable energy is growing, but not quickly enough to meet expected energy demand. For power sector development to be consistent with the goal of zero net greenhouse gas emissions in the second half of the century, it will be necessary to reduce or leave idle fossil-fuel power plant capacity, unless carbon capture technologies become widely available and are rapidly and fully utilised. For the low-carbon transformation of the global economy to succeed, governments will need to create a level playing field for clean energy investment through carbon pricing, removing fossil fuel subsidies and strengthening stable and predictable regulatory and investment environments. I commend Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment 2016 to readers in all sectors interested in reducing the risks of climate change and supporting a sustainable future for all. Ban Ki-moon Secretary-General, United Nations 5 FOREWORD FROM ACHIM STEINER, CHRISTIANA FIGUERES AND UDO STEFFENS JOINT FOREWORD FROM ACHIM STEINER, CHRISTIANA FIGUERES AND UDO STEFFENS In 2015, nearly 200 countries signed up to the 17 goals of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the Paris Climate Change Agreement. The world’s ability to deliver on those commitments depends on the speed with which we can achieve certain transformational changes, notably the transition to clean, sustainable and renewable ACHIM STEINER CHRISTIANA FIGUERES UDO STEFFENS energy that underpins so many of the goals. Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment 2016 confirms that a transition to a low- carbon economy is entirely within our grasp. Building on research that stretches back to 2004, the
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