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Macro View Canadian Markets

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Macro View Canadian Markets INVESTMENT STRATEGY GROUP MARKET BEAT Wednesday, January 13, 2021 MACRO VIEW Market Indicators Index Level* Change YTD YTD (C$) The TSX (-0.4%) is lower and Wall Street's main indices are slightly S&P/TSX 17,919.29 -0.37% 2.8% 2.8% mixed. West Texas Intermediate crude oil (-0.2%) prices pulled back S&P 500 3,800.52 -0.02% 1.2% 1.2% slightly as data showed an unexpected drop in U.S. crude inventories, NASDAQ 13,110.20 0.29% 1.7% 1.7% but rising global COVID-19 infections capped gains. Gold (+0.8%) prices Dow Jones 31,087.41 0.06% 1.6% 1.5% steadied as the dollar firmed and U.S. yields held close to recent highs. Nikkei 225 28,456.59 1.04% 3.7% 3.1% North American bond yields declined in morning trade with the U.S. 10- Euro Stoxx 50 3,621.30 0.25% 1.9% 1.5% year at 1.11% and the Canadian 10-year at 0.83%. The Canadian dollar FTSE EM 2,792.64 0.54% 4.6% 4.5% weakened against the greenback as oil edged lower off of an 11-month high. Canadian Market Movers The U.S. consumer price index increased by 0.4% as expected in BHC Bausch Health Co 4.1% December . In the past 12 months, CPI rose 1.4% versus 1.3% year-over- year. Households paid more for gasoline. Meanwhile underlying inflation WEED Canopy Growth Co 2.5% steadied as the economy continued to manage through the COVID-19 KL Kirkland Lake Go 0.9% pandemic , which has pressured the labor market and the services ENB Enbridge Inc 0.8% industry. TRP Tc Energy Corp 0.7% TECK/B Teck Resources -1.8% CANADIAN MARKETS IMO Imperial Oil -1.9% CVE Cenovus Energy -2.0% Couche -Tard (ATD.B, -10.1%) confirmed that it has submitted a non- SJR/B Shaw Comm -2.3% binding cash offer to buy French grocer, Carrefour (CA-FP, +15.4%). The ATD/B Alimen Couche -10.1% offer is 20 euros per share for a total value of about US$19.72 billion. *As of January 13 2021 10:30 AM. Source: Bloomberg No further details have been released yet regarding the transaction. EXFO (EXF, +2.2%) reported Q1/21 adjusted EBITDA of US$9.9 million, U.S. Market Movers ahead of consensus at US$5.0 million and generated a revenue of INTC Intel Corp 7.9% US$71.5 million, slightly beating consensus. Adjusted EBITDA includes LLY Eli Lilly & Co 2.7% US$1.9 million in Canadian Government Wage Subsidies (CGWS) and a NFLX Netflix Inc 2.1% US$2.5 million of insurance recovery. NEE Nextera Energy 2.0% GM General Motors C 1.7% Goodfood Market (FOOD, -2.7%) generated Q1/21 revenue of $91.4 million, ahead of consensus at $87.1 million. Gross margin increased 350 TGT Target Corp -1.6% basis points as incentives and credits fell and increased concentration in CVS Cvs Health Corp -1.7% delivery zones lowered packaging & shipping costs. DHR Danaher Corp -1.8% Shaw Communications (SJR.B, -2.3%) announced in-line Q1/21 results RTX Raytheon Technol -1.8% with adjusted EBITDA of $607 million coming in slightly above consensus DD Dupont De Nemour -3.0% of $607 million. Shaw added approximately 101,000 subscribers to its *As of January 13 2021 10:30 AM. Source: Bloomberg wireless business but price competition increased postpaid churn. The company has bought back $75 million worth of shares in the quarter. Benchmark Bonds & Rates Shaw re-affirmed its FY21 guidance. 1 1 2 2 Chg Yld Mar-21 Jun-21 Bausch Health (BHC, +4.1%) noted that its revenue for Q4/20 is CA 2YR -0.01% 0.17% 0.35% 0.40% expected to be US$2.2 billion, exceeding the guidance and consensus CA 10YR -0.01% 0.83% 0.80% 0.85% forecasts . The company also anticipates a strong finish with regards to US 2YR 0.00% 0.15% 0.30% 0.30% adjusted EBITDA. BHC further announced that it expects to generate US 10YR -0.02% 1.11% 1.00% 1.10% over US$1 billion of cash flow from operation in 2020. 1 2 2 Rate Mar-21 Jun-21 CA Prime 2.45% - - CA Overnight Tgt 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% Fed Funds Tgt 0.25% 0.13% 0.13% 1 - As of January 13 2021 10:30 AM.; 2 - CIBC forecasts. Source: Bloomberg CIBC PRIVATE WEALTH MANAGEMENT INVESTMENT STRATEGY GROUP 1 Market Beat Currencies & Commodities U.S. MARKETS Price* Change YTD C$/US$ 0.786 0.001 0.0% Clothing retailer Urban Outfitters (URBN, -7.0%) reported a 9% drop in US$/€ 0.821 -0.003 0.3% comparable-store sales over the holiday season. Separately, the Gold $1,858.57 $3.79 -2.1% company announced that Trish Donnelly, CEO of the Urban Outfitters Copper per 100 lb $362.60 $2.05 3.0% Group unit, would be replaced by Sheila Harrington who currently leads Oil (WTI) $53.10 -$0.12 9.4% the Free People Group unit. Oil (WCS) $40.99 $0.34 23.6% Target (TGT, -1.6%) reported a 17.2% jump year-over-year in holiday Natural Gas (NYMEX) $2.76 $0.00 8.5% season same-store sales. The retailer said its comparable in-store sales Natural Gas (AECO) $2.35 $0.22 20.5% climbed 4.2%, while its digital sales more than doubled during November *As of January 13 2021 10:30 AM. Source: Bloomberg and December year-over-year. Target will report results for the quarter ending Jan. 31 on Mar. 3. Equity Indices Since Jan 2020 120 Visa (V, +0.3%) has abandoned its efforts to take over fintech start-up Plaid after the U.S. Department of Justice moved to halt the deal over 110 antitrust concerns. The planned acquisition was valued at US$5.3 100 billion, more than double Plaid’s most recently evaluated price. 90 KB Home (KBH, +4.6%) released Q4/2020 EPS of US$1.12, topping the 80 consensus EPS of US$0.93. Revenue came in at US$1.19 billion, also 70 ahead of analysts’ projections. The homebuilder noted that the U.S. 60 housing market continues to be “robust” and expects earnings and 31 Jul 31 30 Apr 30 31 Jan 31 31 Oct 31 30 Jun 30 30 Sep30 31 Mar 31 29 Feb 29 31 Aug31 31 Dec 31 Dec 31 revenue growth in fiscal 2021. Nov 30 31 May 31 Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN, +1.3%) has agreed to sell 1.25 S&P/TSX Dow Jones S&P500 million doses of its COVID-19 antibody treatment to the U.S. government for US$2.63 billion. The drug is designed to treat high-risk Earnings Releases COVID-19 patients before needing hospitalization. Name Date Est. Act. Ihs Markit Ltd (INFO) 01/13 $0.67 $0.72 * Shaw Comm-B (SJR/B) 01/13 $0.32 $0.33 Aritzia Inc-Sub (ATZ) 01/13 $0.23 -- Blackrock Inc (BLK) 01/14 $9.14 -- * First Republic B (FRC) 01/14 $1.51 -- * Delta Air Li (DAL) 01/14 -$2.50 -- * Cogeco Communica (CCA) 01/14 $1.93 -- Aphria Inc (APHA) 01/14 -$0.03 -- Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) 01/15 $2.62 -- * Wells Fargo & Co (WFC) 01/15 $0.60 -- * Citigroup Inc (C) 01/15 $1.33 -- * Pnc Financial Se (PNC) 01/15 $2.61 -- * Bank Of America (BAC) 01/19 $0.55 -- * Source: Bloomberg * = USD Economic Calendar - Canada Economic Calendar - U.S. Day Release Prior Est. Actual Day Release Prior Est. Actual 1/15 Existing Home Sales MoM (Dec) -1.60% 6.00% -- 1/13 MBA Mortgage Applications 1.70% -- 16.70% 1/18 Bloomberg Nanos Confidence 56.8 -- -- 1/13 CPI MoM (Dec) 0.20% 0.40% 0.40% 1/18 Housing Starts (Dec) 246.0k -- -- 1/13 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (Dec) 0.20% 0.10% 0.10% 1/18 Int'l Securities Transactions (Nov) 6.92b -- -- 1/13 CPI YoY (Dec) 1.20% 1.30% 1.40% 1/18 Bloomberg Jan. Canada Economic Survey () 0 0 0 1/13 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY (Dec) 1.60% 1.60% 1.60% 1/19 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM (Nov) 1.00% -- -- 1/13 CPI Index NSA (Dec) 260.229 260.401 260.474 1/19 Manufacturing Sales MoM (Nov) 0.30% -- -- 1/13 CPI Core Index SA (Dec) 269.887 270.243 270.117 1/20 Teranet/National Bank HPI MoM (Dec) 0.90% -- -- 1/13 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY (Dec) 3.20% -- 3.70% 1/20 Teranet/National Bank HP Index (Dec) 248.39 -- -- 1/13 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY (Dec) 4.70% -- 4.90% 1/20 Teranet/National Bank HPI YoY (Dec) 9.00% -- -- 1/13 Monthly Budget Statement (Dec) -$145.3b -$143.5b -- Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg BRAD BROWN, CFA - SR. MANAGER, EQUITIES PUJA GHOSH, CFA, MBA, MSC. – ASSOCIATE LAUREN ELLISON, CIM, CFP – ASSOCIATE JOHNNY TAM, MASC, CFA - ASSOCIATE ALLAN BISHOP - DIRECTOR, FIXED INCOME ANKUR JAIN – ASSOCIATE CIBC PRIVATE WEALTH MANAGEMENT INVESTMENT STRATEGY GROUP 2 Market Beat IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES Important disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest information, our system for rating investment opportunities and our dissemination policy can be obtained by writing to CIBC World Markets Inc. BCE Place, 161 Bay Street, 4th Floor, Toronto, Ontario M5J 2S8, Attention: Research Disclosures Request. This report is issued and approved for distribution in Canada by CIBC World Markets Inc., a member of the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada and a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund.
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