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Macro View Canadian Markets

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Macro View Canadian Markets INVESTMENT STRATEGY GROUP MARKET BEAT Thursday, September 03, 2020 MACRO VIEW Market Indicators Index Level* Change YTD YTD (C$) The TSX (-0.6%) is trading lower as the energy sector fell while Wall S&P/TSX 16,674.18 -0.14% -2.3% -2.3% Street's main stock indices are being weighed down by the tech sector. S&P 500 3,539.26 -1.16% 9.5% 10.4% West Texas Intermediate crude oil (-1.0%) prices declined to their NASDAQ 11,727.58 -2.73% 30.7% 31.8% lowest point since early August, as focus turned to weaker U.S. fuel Dow Jones 28,925.47 -0.60% 1.4% 2.2% demand and a slow economic recovery from COVID-19. Gold (-0.1%) is Nikkei 225 23,465.53 0.94% -0.8% 2.1% basically flat. North American bond yields dipped with the U.S. 10-year Euro Stoxx 50 3,353.83 0.48% -10.4% -4.7% at 0.63%, and the Canadian 10-year at 0.54%. The Canadian dollar FTSE EM 2,342.62 -0.65% 1.4% 2.2% declined against the greenback as oil prices fell and data showed a widening trade deficit. Canadian Market Movers Canada’s trade deficit widened to C$2.45 billion versus CVE Cenovus Energy 3.1% forecasts of a C$2.5 billion shortfall in July. Exports rose 11.1% and imports increased 12.7%, as motor vehicles and parts were the biggest CNQ Can Natural Res 2.8% contributors to the increase in exports and imports. The U.S. trade IMO Imperial Oil 2.2% deficit of goods and services in July expanded by 18.9% to US$63.6 IPL Inter Pipeline L 1.7% billion versus US$58 billion forecast, from a revised US$53.5 billion in WEED Canopy Growth Co 1.5% June. Exports increased from June by 8.1%, while imports gained 10.9%. TECK/B Teck Resources -1.9% U.S. jobless claims came in better than expected totaling 881,000 AEM Agnico Eagle Min -1.9% versus 950,000 expected. The number reflects both an improving labor SHOP Shopify Inc -2.9% market as well as a change in methodology from the Labor Department OTEX Open Text Corp -3.2% to address seasonal factors. FM First Quantum -3.6% *As of September 3 2020 10:34 AM. Source: Bloomberg CANADIAN MARKETS U.S. Market Movers Gestion Audem, a company controlled by the Audet Family that holds SPG Simon Property 3.2% 69% of Cogeco (CGO, +0.6%) voting rights and 82.9% of Cogeco SLB Schlumberger Ltd 3.0% Communications (CCA, -0.3%) voting rights has rejected the unsolicited, non -binding takeover bid from Altice (ATUS, -4.2%) and Rogers (RCI.B, - AXP American Express 2.8% 0.6% ). This was the second attempt by Rogers to move into Quebec OXY Occidental Pete 2.7% GE General Electric 2.4% after failing to acquire Videotron back in 2000. CRM Salesforce.Com -3.5% Brookfield Property (BPY.UN, +0.3%) announced that it has purchased AAPL Apple Inc -3.6% all 35.5 million units of substantial issuer bids (SIB). Each unit was acquired for US$12, a total cost of US$426 million. This purchase is a ADBE Adobe Inc -3.9% part of a US$1 billion equity commitment previously announced by PYPL Paypal Holdings -4.5% Brookfield Asset Management (BAM.A, -1.1%). BPY noted that there is NVDA Nvidia Corp -4.8% US$486 million remaining from the US$1 billion equity commitment *As of September 3 2020 10:34 AM. Source: Bloomberg which is available until the end of 2020. Magna (MGA, -2.5%) is set to acquire the majority ownership of a Benchmark Bonds & Rates Chinese seat supplier, Honglizhixin (HLZX). MGA will also acquire a Chg1 Yld1 Dec-202 Mar-212 majority stake in its existing joint venture with HLZX. The joint venture CA 2YR 0.00% 0.26% 0.35% 0.35% currently has two manufacturing plants and following the acquisition, it CA 10YR -0.01% 0.54% 0.70% 0.80% will look to increase this to twelve manufacturing plants. US 2YR -0.01% 0.13% 0.25% 0.30% US 10YR -0.01% 0.63% 0.80% 1.00% IGM Financial (IGM, -0.3%) announced net inflows of $271 million in August 2020 compared to $62 million last year. IGM also reported total Rate1 Dec-202 Mar-212 assets under management were $173.2 billion this month, up 1.5% CA Prime 2.45% - - month-over-month (M/M), and up 7.1% year-over-year (Y/Y). CA Overnight Tgt 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% Fed Funds Tgt 0.25% 0.13% 0.13% 1 - As of September 3 2020 10:34 AM.; 2 - CIBC forecasts. Source: Bloomberg CIBC PRIVATE WEALTH MANAGEMENT INVESTMENT STRATEGY GROUP 1 Market Beat Currencies & Commodities U.S. MARKETS Price* Change YTD C$/US$ 0.764 0.005 -0.8% Blackstone Group (BX -1.7%) and Global Infrastructure Partners have US$/€ 0.845 -0.002 -5.3% put forth an offer to purchase railroad operator, Kansas City Southern Gold $1,935.64 -$7.16 27.6% (KSU -1.2%). While the terms of the offer have not been made public, Copper per 100 lb $298.55 -$3.50 5.7% Kansas City Southern carries a market value in excess of US$18 billion. Oil (WTI) $40.93 -$0.58 -33.0% The railroad company reported 2019 revenue of US$2.87 billion and Oil (WCS) $31.12 -$1.06 -19.3% operates a network that runs from central Mexico to the U.S. Midwest. Natural Gas (NYMEX) $2.53 $0.04 15.4% Costco (COST -0.3%) reported strong sales figures for August which Natural Gas (AECO) $2.08 $0.06 21.6% included a 13.2% jump in same-store sales and a 101.6% increase in e- *As of September 3 2020 10:34 AM. Source: Bloomberg commerce sales. Net sales also climbed 15% year-over-year to US$13.56 billion. Equity Indices YTD 120 Apparel brand PVH (PVH +5.9%) reported adjusted EPS of US$0.13 per share for its second quarter, well ahead of a consensus loss of US$2.43 110 per share. Revenue was down 33% year-over-year, however, the 100 company saw a 50% jump in its e-commerce sales. 90 Cybersecurity provider CrowdStrike (CRWD -9.3%) fell despite releasing 80 better-than-expected Q2 results. The company reported adjusted 70 earnings of US$0.03 per share, slightly ahead of an expected loss of 60 US$0.01 per share. Revenue also beat consensus projections, coming in 31 Jul 31 30 Apr30 31 Jan 31 30 Jun 30 31 Mar31 29 Feb 29 31 Aug31 at US$199 million over an expected US$188.5 million. The company also Dec 31 31 May 31 provided improved guidance for its third quarter. S&P/TSX Dow Jones S&P500 Earnings Releases Name Date Est. Act. Broadcom Inc (AVGO) 09/03 $5.22 -- * Cooper Cos Inc (COO) 09/03 $1.53 -- * Campbell Soup Co (CPB) 09/03 $0.61 $0.63 * Laurentian Bank (LB) 09/04 $0.46 -- Descartes Sys (DSG) 09/09 $0.10 -- * Transcontinent-A (TCL/A) 09/09 $0.46 -- Empire Co Ltd A (EMP/A) 09/10 $0.59 -- North West Co In (NWC) 09/10 $0.47 -- Kroger Co (KR) 09/11 $0.51 -- * Enghouse Sys Ltd (ENGH) 09/11 $0.38 -- Aurora Cannabis (ACB) 09/11 -$0.43 -- Oracle Corp (ORCL) 09/13 $0.86 -- * Lennar Corp-A (LEN) 09/14 $1.57 -- * Source: Bloomberg * = USD Economic Calendar - Canada Economic Calendar - U.S. Day Release Prior Est. Actual Day Release Prior Est. Actual 9/3 Int'l Merchandise Trade (Jul) -3.19b -2.50b -2.45b 9/3 Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Aug) 576.10% -- 116.50% 9/4 Net Change in Employment (Aug) 418.5k 250.0k -- 9/3 Nonfarm Productivity (2Q F) 7.30% 7.50% 10.10% 9/4 Full Time Employment Change (Aug) 73.2 -- -- 9/3 Unit Labor Costs (2Q F) 12.20% 12.00% 9.00% 9/4 Part Time Employment Change (Aug) 345.3 -- -- 9/3 Initial Jobless Claims 1006k 950k 881k 9/4 Unemployment Rate (Aug) 10.90% 10.10% -- 9/3 Continuing Claims 14535k 14000k 13254k 9/4 Hourly Wage Rate Permanent Employees YoY5.70% (Aug) 5.40% -- 9/3 Trade Balance (Jul) -$50.7b -$58.0b -$63.6b 9/4 Participation Rate (Aug) 64.30% 64.50% -- 9/3 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 44.3 -- 45.1 9/4 MLI Leading Indicator MoM (Jul) -1.40% -- -- 9/3 Markit US Services PMI (Aug F) 54.8 54.7 55 9/4 Ivey Purchasing Managers Index SA (Aug) 68.5 -- -- 9/3 Markit US Composite PMI (Aug F) 54.7 -- 54.6 9/8 Bloomberg Nanos Confidence 52.7 -- -- 9/3 ISM Services Index (Aug) 58.1 57 56.9 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg BRAD BROWN, CFA - SR. MANAGER, EQUITIES PUJA GHOSH, CFA, MBA, MSC. – ASSOCIATE LAUREN ELLISON, CIM, CFP – ASSOCIATE JOHNNY TAM, MASC, CFA - ASSOCIATE ALLAN BISHOP - DIRECTOR, FIXED INCOME ANKUR JAIN – ASSOCIATE CIBC PRIVATE WEALTH MANAGEMENT INVESTMENT STRATEGY GROUP 2 Market Beat IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES Important disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest information, our system for rating investment opportunities and our dissemination policy can be obtained by writing to CIBC World Markets Inc. BCE Place, 161 Bay Street, 4th Floor, Toronto, Ontario M5J 2S8, Attention: Research Disclosures Request.
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