Citigroup Is Citigroup's Dividend Safe? Downgrading Stock Sector Weig Hting: Due to Capital Concerns Market Weight 12 -18 Mo
Equity Research Change in Recommendation October 31, 2007 US Banks Stock Rating: Sector Underperformer Citigroup Is Citigroup's Dividend Safe? Downgrading Stock Sector Weig hting: Due to Capital Concerns Market Weight 12 -18 mo. Price Target None C-NYSE (10/30/07) $42.41 Our thesis is simple. We believe over near term, C will need to raise over Key Indices: S&P 500, DJ Ind, NYSE, S&P 100 $30bn in capital through either asset sales, a dividend cut, a capital raise, or combination thereof. We believe such a catalyst will pressure the stock 3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) 10.0% significantly lower and accordingly downgrade to SU from SP as of Oct 31. 52 -week Range $40.44 -$56.66 Shares Outstanding 4.9B Float 4,900.0M Shrs C's tang. capital stands at just 2.8%. Since 2006, C has made $26 billion in Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 17,0 00,000 acquisitions, taken over $6 billion in recent charges, and increased its Market Capitalization $208.4B dividend against a backdrop off almost no net income growth. Tang. equity Dividend /Div Yield $2.16 / 5.1% has been almost flat since '05 while tang. assets have grown almost 60%. Fiscal Year Ends December Book Value $25.84 per Shr To put into context, avg. tang. cap ratios are closer to 5% for C's peers. 2007 ROE (E) 14.0% While not part of our immediate thesis, higher credit losses and further LT Debt $340.0B disruption in the SIV market would only exacerbate our thesis of capital Preferred $1,000.00M pressures.
[Show full text]