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Natural Resource Use in Central Asia: Institutional Challenges and the Contribution of Capacity Building” Held in Giessen, 1St October 2013

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Natural Resource Use in Central Asia: Institutional Challenges and the Contribution of Capacity Building” Held in Giessen, 1St October 2013 Zentrum für internationale Entwicklungs- und Umweltforschung der Justus-Liebig-Universität Gießen Proceedings of the International Conference and Young Researchers’ Forum “Natural resource use in Central Asia: Institutional challenges and the contribution of capacity building” held in Giessen, 1st October 2013 MIRZA NOMMAN AHMED, IRA PAWLOWSKI (EDS.)* No. 64 Giessen, October 2013 Keywords: natural resources, water, agriculture, climate change, Central Asia * Dr. Mirza Nomman Ahmed and Dr. Ira Pawlowski are research assistants at the ZEU and coordinators of the postgraduate programmes “Climate Change Network for Central Asia (CliNCA)” and “Land use, ecosystem services and human welfare in Central Asia (LUCA)”. This conference has been organized in the framework of both these projects.In respect thereof, particular thanks goes to the German Department of Foreign Affairs and DAAD for facilitating CliNCA) and the VolkswagenStiftung for funding LUCA. Contact: [email protected] [email protected] Natural resource use in Central Asia: Institutional challenges and the contribution of capacity building LIST OF CONTENT Preface ................................................................................................................ VII SESSION 1 SH. KENJABAEV, I. FORKUTSA, M. BACH, H.G. FREDE : Performance evaluation of the BUDGET model in simulating cotton and wheat yield and soil moisture in Fergana valley .................................................................... 1 KANAYIM TESHEBAEVA, HENRIETTE SUDHAUS, H.-U. WETZEL, SIGRID ROESSNER, HELMUT ECHTLER AND ALEXANDER ZUBOVICH : Radar remote sensing for surveying and monitoring of earthquakes and mass movements in Southern Kyrgyzstan ........................................................................... 15 DAVRON ABSALYAMOV Efficiency of wheat and cotton producing farms in Uzbekistan: a Stochastic Frontier Approach .................................................................................................. 23 ILKHOMJON ASLANOV Dust storms, dust transfer and depositions in the southern Aral Sea region .......... 27 M. BEKCHANOV, A. BHADURI, C. RINGLER Is Rogun a Silver Bullet for Water Scarcity in Central Asia? ..................................... 33 : M. DUISHONAKUNOV, S. IMBERY, L. KING Assessing the recent Glacier retreat in Chon and Kichi Naryn Catchments, Kyrgyz Republic ................................................................................................................ 37 I. RADCHENKO, I. FORKUTSA, L. BREUER AND H.-G. FREDE : Hydrological modelling in arid catchments with data scarcity (Ferghana Valley, Central Asia) .......................................................................................................... 43 NATALYA TSYCHUYEVA, ANNETTE OTTE, LEV SPIVAK: The Analysis of Land Cover Changes in Mountain Region using Remote Sensing Data ...................................................................................................................... 45 G. UMIRZAKOV, F. BARTHOLD, K. SCHNEIDER, I. FORKUTSA., L. BREUER, G. STULINA, V. DUKHOVNY, H.-G. FREDE Estimation of phreatic evaporation in irrigation agriculture using stable isotopes ........ 51 Center for international Development and Environmental Research (ZEU) III Proceedings of the International Conference and Young Researchers’ Forum, 1st October 2013 SESSION 2 FREDERIKE GEHRIGK, THOMAS HERZFELD, INSA THEESFELD Farmers' perceptions of land and water property rights: Discrepancies between de jure and de facto rights in Tajikistan ......................................................................... 63 AHMAD HAMIDOV, MUKHAMADKHAN KHAMIDOV, ANDREAS THIEL Institutional analysis of irrigation management in Uzbekistan using Qualitative Comparative Analysis: Case studies of water consumers associations in Bukhara region .................................................................................................................... 67 GULMIRA GAFAROVA, OLEKSANDR PEREKHOZHUK, THOMAS GLAUBEN Pricing Behaviour of Kazakh, Russian and Ukrainian Exporters in the International Wheat Market ..................................................................................... 89 PARVIZ KHAKIMOV The impact of WTO accession growth on agricultural sector of Tajikistan ................... 95 ZUURA MAMADALIEVA .......................................................................................................................... State of water and land use in south-western Kyrgyzstan ........................................ 107 LYAZZAT NUGUMANOVA ........................................................................................................................ Analysis of Fossil Fuel Subsidies in Kazakhstan ..................................................... 109 SALTANAT SABITOVA ............................................................................................................................. Kazakh emissions trading scheme: legal implications for land use ........................... 117 DONIYOR SATTAROV, PURAN MAL Impacts of Liberalization on Agriculture and Trade: A Case Study of Uzbekistan .... 121 ELIZA ZHUNUSOVA Policy-induced Distortions to Farmer Incentives and Their Impact on Agricultural Land Use in the Kyrgyz Republic ............................................................................ 129 IV Center for international Development and Environmental Research (ZEU) SESSION 3 UTKUR DJANIBEKOV, ASIA KHAMZINA, GRACE B. VILLAMOR, JOHN P.A. LAMERS Economic analysis of afforestation of marginal croplands in Uzbekistan ................................ 137 ANDREI DÖRRE ....................................................................................................................................... Legal Arrangements and Pasture–related Socio–ecological Challenges in Kyrgyzstan........................................................................................................... 149 SHAKHZOD AVAZOV Socio-economic Features of the Agro-pastoralists in the Zarafshan Valley, NW Tajikistan ............................................................................................................ 155 ALISHER ERGASHEV How Fruit Consumption Might Be Fruitful for the Economy: Analyzing Effects of Improvements in Fruit and Vegetable Availability and Accessibility in Uzbekistan .. 171 B.GOJENKO, I-U. LEONHAEUSER, G. STULINA Land use, food and nutrition security – case study in rural Uzbekistan........................ 185 SHAVKAT HASANOV AND FARHOD AHROROV Uzbekistan’s Agriculture- Status Quo, Challenges and Policy Suggestions .............. 189 ISMAILOVA BASHORAT The Aral Sea desiccation: Socio-economic effects in case of the Republic of Karakalpakstan, Uzbekistan .................................................................................. 205 ZHAMILIA SYDYGALIEVA Causes and Impact of Migration on Economic Development of Kyrgyzstan .............. 217 ALIYA TONKOBAYEVA Environmentally induced migration and displacement in Kazakhstan ....................... 227 Center for international Development and Environmental Research (ZEU) V Proceedings of the International Conference and Young Researchers’ Forum, 1st October 2013 VI Center for international Development and Environmental Research (ZEU) PREFACE Natural resources, especially water and arable land, are essential means of livelihood in Central Asia where the majority of the population lives in rural areas, ranging from 42% in Kazakhstan to 74% in Tajikistan. However, land and water resources are limited due to geographic conditions but also due to their unsustainable use. The conference focuses on current developments of natural resources and their use in Central Asia, comprising the five former Soviet countries of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. The Central Asian landscape is dominated by deserts and semi-deserts as well as high mountain areas. The location in the centre of the Eurasian continent and the distinct topography of large altitudinal differences of more than 7000 m from the Caspian Sea to the mountain ranges of Tien Shan and Pamir determine the region’s climate. It is characterized by large precipitation differences between the arid lowlands and more humid mountainous zones as well as high temperature amplitude between cold winters and hot summers. Central Asia is to a large extent a water-limited region with run-off generating mainly in mountain areas due to snow and glacial melt. Furthermore, high seismic activity in the mountain areas makes them particularly prone to gravitational mass movements like earthquakes and landslides. This extreme landscape is home to very diverse ecosystems comprising deserts, oases, agricultural land, and mountainous vegetation hot spots. They are all threatened by the impacts of climate change that can lead to extended dry periods and accelerate the melting of glaciers, thereby reducing the water availability in future. These landscape ecological, geographical and physiographical features determine availability and usability of land and water for agriculture, energy production, and industrial purposes also increasingly revealing issues related to conflicting interests. Agricultural land use is restricted to certain areas due to the geographic conditions and its dependency on irrigation. Although land and water are such precious resources for agriculture, an unproductive and wasteful use is prevalent in Central Asia, in both, subsistence farming and export oriented cotton production. This unsustainable
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