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Airports of Thailand Target Price: THB465.00 Price: THB414.00 Preparing for Take-Off Market Cap: USD16,907M Bloomberg Ticker: AOT TB

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Airports of Thailand Target Price: THB465.00 Price: THB414.00 Preparing for Take-Off Market Cap: USD16,907M Bloomberg Ticker: AOT TB Re-Initiating Coverage Thailand 1 February 2017 Transport | Airport Services Buy (from Neutral) Airports of Thailand Target Price: THB465.00 Price: THB414.00 Preparing For Take-Off Market Cap: USD16,907m Bloomberg Ticker: AOT TB We re-initiate coverage on AOT with a BUY (from Neutral) and a Share Data DCF-derived FY17F THB465.00 TP (12% upside). We like AOT as a Thai Avg Daily Turnover (THB/USD) 1,146m/32.3m tourism first-tier investment, based on a strong industry environment in the aviation and tourism sectors. Amid a huge capex cycle, we still expect 52-wk Price low/high (THB) 356 - 422 an unchanged dividend payout based on resilient earnings growth and Free Float (%) 30 strong cash position. Approvals for planned projects may be further Shares outstanding (m) 1,429 catalysts to our long-term forecasts. Estimated Return 12% Leading regional airports operator. We like Airports of Thailand (AOT) as one Shareholders (%) of Asia’s largest airport operators, given the nation’s position as a key regional aviation hub. This was seen in strong growth in aircraft and passenger Ministry of Finance 70.0 movements in 2010-2015 (13-14% CAGR vs peers’ 7%) and could be a Thai NDVR 5.1 foundation for future success. Going forward, we expect Thailand tourism’s State Street Bank Europe Limited 2.0 sound fundamentals, the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) and further airport expansion projects to provide strong backup and act as earnings Share Performance (%) forecast upsides that can sustain AOT’s longer-term growth. YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m We are positive on the global aviation trend and tourism. Airbus expects Absolute 4.0 4.0 8.7 4.8 9.5 aircraft delivery to grow at a CAGR of 3.6% over the next 20 years, which may Relative 1.8 1.8 3.2 1.3 (11.7) see a tripling in air traffic numbers. We also believe the tourism industry would Source: Bloomberg remain a key player for the local economy (up to 12% of GDP), with continuous growth in foreign visitor numbers to a new high of 35m (+7%YoY) in 2017 alone. Airport of Thailand PCL (AOT TB) Price Close Relative to Stock Exchange of Thailand Index (RHS) Growth support remains the influx of Chinese visitors plus the return of 420 110 European and Russian travellers, as well as the Government’s cut on visa fees 400 102 for 19 countries in January-February. 380 95 360 87 Secured earnings growth. We expect core revenue to expand moderately by 340 79 25 a CAGR of 9% in 2017-2019 based on growth movements in aircraft (7%), 20 passengers (9%) and concessionaires (11%) over this period. Meanwhile, 15 controllable costs may help boost AOT’s bottomline by an average 13% pa, with 10 core profit margins escalating by 1.3-1.6ppts annually. For new projects, we add 5 Suvarnabhumi Airport’s Phase 2 into our forecasts, which ought to benefit Vol m Apr-16 Oct-16 Jun-16 Feb-16 Dec-16 earnings from 2020. AOT’s remainder projects that have not been confirmed Aug-16 are left as upsides. In the short term, we expect moderate YoY earnings growth in 1Q17 despite the impact of crackdowns on Chinese zero-dollar tours. Source: Bloomberg Solid balance sheet. A financing plan of 1:1 D/E for THB62.5bn Suvarnabhumi Airport extension phase may keep AOT’s balance sheet strong, ie with a low net D/E of 0.2x over the next three years. Its recurring income business model has Table of contents Financial Exhibits 2 made it a cash-rich company. This has resulted in a massive equity base that is Executive Summary 3 4x larger than its interest-bearing debt. Valuation And Recommendation 6 We re-initiate coverage with BUY. Our DCF-derived THB465.00 TP implies Key Risks 7 30x FY17F P/E, or +1.5SD to its 5-year historical mean. AOT deserves to trade Business Overview 8 at a premium based on a superior outlook in both earnings and ROE vis-à-vis Industry Overview 10 Financial Analysis 13 its peers. The upcoming par split to THB1.00 from THB10.00 may activate SWOT 17 AOT’s trading liquidity. Downside risks include project delays and political uncertainty. For a detailed analysis of risks, please see page 7. Forecasts and Valuations Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17F Sep-18F Sep-19F Total turnover (THBm) 43,969 50,962 55,393 61,060 66,463 Reported net profit (THBm) 18,729 19,571 21,889 25,080 28,129 Recurring net profit (THBm) 16,554 19,351 21,889 25,080 28,129 Recurring net profit growth (%) 32.0 16.9 13.1 14.6 12.2 Recurring EPS (THB) 11.6 13.5 15.3 17.6 19.7 Analysts DPS (THB) 6.54 6.83 7.64 8.76 9.82 Vatcharut Vacharawongsith Recurring P/E (x) 35.7 30.6 27.0 23.6 21.0 +662 862 9736 P/B (x) 5.48 4.91 4.46 4.03 3.64 P/CF (x) 40.0 29.4 21.5 19.6 17.8 [email protected] Dividend Yield (%) 1.6 1.6 1.8 2.1 2.4 EV/EBITDA (x) 21.3 18.0 16.4 14.9 13.4 Naruedom Mujjalinkool Return on average equity (%) 18.3 17.1 17.3 18.0 18.2 Net debt to equity net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash +662 862 9229 Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%) 0.7 3.1 7.9 [email protected] Source: Company data, RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report 1 Powered by the EFA Platform Airports of Thailand Thailand Re-Initiating Coverage 1 February 2017 Transport | Airport Services Financial Exhibits Financial model updated on: 2017-01-31. Financial summary Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17F Sep-18F Sep-19F Asia Recurring EPS (THB) 11.6 13.5 15.3 17.6 19.7 Thailand EPS (THB) 13.1 13.7 15.3 17.6 19.7 Transport DPS (THB) 6.54 6.83 7.64 8.76 9.82 Airports of Thailand BVPS (THB) 76 84 93 103 114 Bloomberg AOT TB Weighted avg adjusted shares (m) 1,429 1,429 1,429 1,429 1,429 Buy Valuation metrics Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17F Sep-18F Sep-19F Valuation basis Recurring P/E (x) 35.7 30.6 27.0 23.6 21.0 DCF. P/E (x) 31.6 30.2 27.0 23.6 21.0 P/B (x) 5.48 4.91 4.46 4.03 3.64 Key drivers FCF Yield (%) 1.2 2.8 1.6 0.2 2.9 i. Rising number of aircraft and passengers; Dividend Yield (%) 1.6 1.6 1.8 2.1 2.4 ii. Stronger sales from its duty-free concessions; EV/EBITDA (x) 21.3 18.0 16.4 14.9 13.4 iii. Efficient cost controls. EV/EBIT (x) 27.7 22.7 20.3 17.9 15.9 Key risks Income statement (THBm) Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17F Sep-18F Sep-19F i. Limitations to fees and charge hikes; ii. Delays in project investment plans; Total turnover 43,969 50,962 55,393 61,060 66,463 iii. Changes in government policies and political Gross profit 22,514 26,766 29,927 34,223 38,164 uncertainty. EBITDA 26,618 30,759 33,586 37,638 41,344 Depreciation and amortisation (6,188) (6,404) (6,428) (6,468) (6,504) Company Profile Operating profit 20,430 24,355 27,158 31,170 34,840 Airports of Thailand (AOT) is an airports operator in Net interest (1,605) (1,377) (1,456) (1,520) (1,598) the kingdom. Its core tasks are in the management Exceptional income - net 2,706 274 0 0 0 and development of Thailand’s six international airports: Pre-tax profit 23,335 24,424 27,406 31,402 35,219 i. Suvarnabhumi; Taxation (4,585) (4,821) (5,481) (6,280) (7,044) ii. Don Mueang; Minority interests (21) (32) (36) (41) (46) iii. Chiang Mai; Recurring net profit 16,554 19,351 21,889 25,080 28,129 iv. Mae Fah Luang-Chiang Rai; v. Phuket; vi. Hat Yai. Cash flow (THBm) Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17F Sep-18F Sep-19F All six serve both domestic and international flights, Change in working capital (3,138) 1,422 (320) (240) (299) with Suvarnabhumi designated as the country's main Cash flow from operations 14,799 20,118 27,451 30,205 33,209 airport terminal. Capex (7,611) (3,326) (18,211) (28,839) (16,072) Cash flow from investing activities (6,596) (6,754) (17,063) (29,240) (16,876) Dividends paid (7,057) (7,142) (9,757) (10,920) (12,511) Cash flow from financing activities (12,166) (10,564) (9,744) (4,718) (16,601) Cash at beginning of period 7,049 3,086 5,886 6,530 2,778 Net change in cash (3,963) 2,800 644 (3,752) (269) Ending balance cash 3,086 5,886 6,530 2,778 2,509 Balance sheet (THBm) Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17F Sep-18F Sep-19F Total cash and equivalents 48,490 60,490 61,680 59,031 59,888 Tangible fixed assets 95,253 91,692 103,909 126,566 136,487 Intangible assets 553 350 218 278 243 Total investments 9,291 10,981 10,679 10,333 10,015 Total other assets 2,602 5,035 3,887 4,288 5,093 Total assets 159,624 172,216 184,054 204,435 216,026 Short-term debt 4,228 4,797 4,891 4,834 4,824 Total long-term debt 28,202 27,261 25,963 32,283 28,117 Other liabilities 5,605 4,149 5,378 5,292 5,350 Total liabilities 50,812 50,638 50,356 56,551 52,496 Shareholders' equity 107,977 120,406 132,538 146,699 162,317 Minority interests 225 257 244 269 297 Total equity 108,812 121,579 133,698 147,884 163,530 Net debt (16,060) (28,433) (30,827) (21,914) (26,946) Total liabilities & equity 159,624 172,216 184,054 204,435 216,026 Key metrics Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17F Sep-18F Sep-19F Revenue growth (%) 17.0 15.9 8.7 10.2 8.8 Recurrent EPS growth (%) 32.0 16.9 13.1 14.6 12.2 Gross margin (%) 51.2 52.5 54.0 56.0 57.4 Operating EBITDA margin (%) 60.5 60.4 60.6 61.6 62.2 Net profit margin (%) 42.6 38.4 39.5 41.1 42.3 Capex/sales (%) 17.3 6.5 32.9 47.2 24.2 Interest cover (x) 12.7 17.7 18.6 20.5 21.8 Source: Company data, RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report 2 Airports of Thailand Thailand Re-Initiating Coverage 1 February 2017 Transport | Airport Services Executive Summary Thailand’s international airport operator AOT is an airports operator in Thailand.
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