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Airports of Thailand PCL (AOT) BUY TP: Bt49.00 Expansion to Expand Income Closing Price: Bt45.75 Upside/Downside +7% ► Announced Its 10-Year Expansion Plan

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Airports of Thailand PCL (AOT) BUY TP: Bt49.00 Expansion to Expand Income Closing Price: Bt45.75 Upside/Downside +7% ► Announced Its 10-Year Expansion Plan Airports of Thailand PCL (AOT) BUY TP: Bt49.00 Expansion to expand income Closing price: Bt45.75 Upside/downside +7% ► Announced its 10-year expansion plan. ► To open new bidding for duty free and retail businesses. Sector Transportation & Logistics ► AOT and Treasury Department still negotiating. Paid-up shares (shares mn) 14,286 Market capitalization (Bt mn) 653,585 ► Recommend BUY with a target price of Bt49.00. Free float (%) 29.99 12-mth daily avg. turnover (Bt mn) 1,415 Expansion is needed. 12-mth trading range (Bt) 45.50/30.00 AOT announced its 10-year plan for investment in expansions at Suvarnabhumi Airport Phases 2, 3 and 4, with total investment of Major shareholders (%) Bt137bn, Don Muang Airport Terminal 3, with total investment of Ministry of Finance 70.00 Bt32bn, and Phuket Airport with total investment of Bt14.7bn. The Thai NVDR 3.47 expansions would help resolve the issue of overcapacity at these State Street Bank Europe Ltd 1.91 three international airports. Since the expansion of Don Muang Airport’s Terminal 2 in March 2016, it served 35mn passengers p.a. Financial highlights on its capacity of only 30mn passengers at the end of 2016, and it Year to Sep FY2015 FY2016 FY2017E FY2018E needs to increase capacity to serve 40mn passengers p.a. Phuket Revenue (Bt mn) 43,969 50,962 55,500 59,495 Airport after expansion in September 2016 served 14mn passengers Normalized profit (Bt mn) 15,755 19,482 23,301 24,845 Net profit (Bt mn) 18,729 19,571 22,036 24,845 by the end of 2016 from its capacity of 12mn passengers p.a.(from Normalized EPS (Bt) 1.10 1.36 1.63 1.74 6.5mn passenger p.a), and the next expansion is for serving 18mn EPS (Bt) 1.31 1.37 1.54 1.74 passengers p.a. Suvarnabhumi Airport Phase 2 is set to serve 60mn Normalized EPS grow th (%) 32.43 23.66 19.60 6.63 passengers from 45mn passengers currently. The target for EPS grow th (%) 53.27 4.50 12.59 12.75 Suvarnabhumi Phases 1-4 will be able to serve 120mn passengers P/E (x) 41.49 33.55 28.05 26.31 p.a. AOT expects the number of passengers through its six airports P/BV 6.01 5.38 5.06 4.66 to reach 181mn in the next 10 years, while the number is expected DPS (Bt) 0.65 0.68 0.76 0.87 Div. Yield (%) to reach 120mn passengers by the end of 2017, +7.8% YoY. 1.42 1.49 1.66 1.90 ROE (%) 5.19 4.20 3.51 3.59 Source: SETSMART, AWS To open new bidding for duty free and retail businesses. By the end of 2017, AOT will open bidding for new contracts for duty free and retail business as the contract with King Power will expire in 2020. It is in the process of seeking a partner for the new contract. This will increase revenue sharing for AOT under non-Aero business after 2020. AOT and Treasury Department are still negotiating AOT and the Treasury Department are still negotiating the land usage rental fee. AOT paid Bt1.26bn for land usage rental fee and incremental rental fee of Don Muang Airport on 19 May 2016. It was Thailand Research Department recognized through its retained earnings. Suvarnabhumi Airport’s Mrs. Vajiralux Sanglerdsillapachai, rental fee is being negotiated. The final say is about the percent of License, No. 17385 revenue sharing for the usage areas, as 2-5% of ROA. It is likely to Tel: 02 680 5077 increase the rental fee at Suvarnabhumi from Bt1.5bn p.a. to less than Bt2.0bn p.a., so it should have little impact on AOT. Please see disclaimer on last page 1 Recommend BUY with the target price of Bt49.00. We have a positive view on AOT’s business, although it may have a lot of CAPEX, and overhang from an increase in rental fees, we believe it will not hurt net profit too much. The company has significant room to increase its revenues and restructure non-aero business to increase revenues when it renews the contract for duty free and retail business. We expect net profit growth of 12.6% YoY in 2017 and 12.8% YoY in 2018. Upside for revenue will be from 2020 onwards due to increased passenger numbers and revenue sharing from non-aero business. We maintain a BUY recommend for AOT with a target price of Bt49.00, based on DCF at 8.6% WACC. Please see disclaimer on last page 2 Income Statement (Btmn) Year to 30 Sep FY2015 FY2016 FY2017E FY2018E FY2019E Total revenue 43,969 50,962 55,500 59,495 64,250 Operating expenses (21,455) (24,196) (26,500) (28,320) (30,500) EBIT 22,514 26,766 29,000 31,175 33,750 Other income(expenses) (547) (1,055) 1,214 1,295 1,200 Financial cost (1,605) (1,377) (1,394) (1,350) (1,414) Pre-tax profit 20,361 24,335 28,820 31,120 33,536 Corporate tax (4,585) (4,821) (5,469) (6,224) (6,707) Net Profit before MI 15,776 19,514 23,351 24,896 26,829 Minority interests (21) (32) (50) (51) (55) Normalized profit 15,755 19,482 23,301 24,845 26,774 Extra-ordinary items 2,974 90 (1,264) 0 0 Net Profit 18,729 19,571 22,036 24,845 26,774 Normalized EPS (Bt) 1.10 1.36 1.63 1.74 1.87 EPS (Bt) 1.31 1.37 1.54 1.74 1.87 DPS (Bt) 0.65 0.68 0.76 0.87 0.94 Statement of Financial Position (Btmn) Year to 31 Dec FY2015 FY2016 FY2017E FY2018E FY2019E Current Assets 51,925 64,157 52,500 61,000 73,500 Non-current Assets 107,699 108,059 142,000 145,000 145,500 Total assets 159,624 172,216 194,500 206,000 219,000 Current Liabilities 15,854 18,429 25,670 28,000 30,541 Non-current Liabilities 34,958 32,209 39,730 37,667 39,159 Total liabilities 50,812 50,638 65,400 65,667 69,700 Paid-up capital 14,286 14,286 14,286 14,286 14,286 Retained Earnings 79,695 92,124 95,553 97,410 98,302 Total equity 108,812 121,578 129,100 140,333 149,300 Total liabilities and equity 159,624 172,216 194,500 206,000 219,000 BVPS (Bt) 7.62 8.51 9.04 9.82 10.45 Cash Flow Statement (Btmn) Year to 31 Dec FY2015 FY2016 FY2017E FY2018E FY2019E Pretax Profit 23,335 24,424 28,820 31,120 33,536 Depreciation & Amortization 6,188 6,404 6,630 6,969 7,050 Operating Cash Flow 24,906 30,326 30,600 30,469 31,560 CAPEX (6,892) (4,906) (6,000) (7,000) (8,000) Investing Cash Flow (16,079) (14,722) (15,700) (17,900) (14,970) Dividend Payment (9,286) (9,714) (10,857) (12,429) (13,394) Financing Cash Flow (12,778) (12,803) (11,531) (14,300) (23,858) Net cash flow (3,951) 2,801 3,369 (1,731) (7,268) Beginning cash & equivalents 7,037 3,087 5,886 9,255 7,524 Ending cash & equivalents 3,087 5,887 9,255 7,524 257 Please see disclaimer on last page 3 Quarterly Income Statement (Btmn) Year to 30 Sep FY2Q16 FY3Q16 FY4Q16 FY1Q17 FY2Q17 Total revenue 13,800 12,573 12,775 12,613 14,665 Operating expenses (6,093) (4,816) (7,336) (6,449) (6,060) EBIT 7,707 7,757 5,439 6,163 8,605 Other income(expenses) (349) (1,399) 353 327 (245) Financial cost (349) (339) (329) (319) (300) Pre-tax profit 7,009 6,019 5,464 6,172 8,059 Corporate tax (1,353) (1,186) (1,053) (1,319) (1,609) Net Profit before MI 5,657 4,833 4,411 4,853 6,450 Minority interests (14) 0 (8) (14) (18) Normalized profit 5,642 4,833 4,403 4,839 6,432 Extra-ordinary items (76) 233 (89) 246 38 Net Profit 5,567 5,065 4,314 5,084 6,470 Normalized EPS (Bt) 0.39 0.34 0.31 0.34 0.45 EPS (Bt) 0.39 0.35 0.30 0.36 0.45 Key Financial Ratios Year to 31 Dec FY2015 FY2016 FY2017E FY2018E FY2019E Sales growth (%) 17.0 15.9 8.9 7.2 8.0 Normalized profit growth (%) 32.4 23.7 19.6 6.6 7.8 Net profit growth (%) 53.3 4.5 12.6 12.7 7.8 Normalized EPS growth (%) 32.4 23.7 19.6 6.6 7.8 EPS growth (%) 53.3 4.5 12.6 12.7 7.8 EBIT margin (%) 51.2 52.5 52.3 52.4 52.5 Normalized profit margin (%) 35.8 38.2 42.0 41.8 41.7 Net profit margin (%) 42.6 38.4 39.7 41.8 41.7 Effective tax rate (%) 22.5 19.8 19.0 20.0 20.0 ROA (%) 9.9 11.7 12.7 12.4 12.6 ROE (%) 5.2 4.2 3.5 3.6 4.4 EV/EBITDA 23.3 20.3 19.1 17.9 16.8 Debt to equity (x) 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 P/E (x) 41.5 33.5 28.0 26.3 24.4 P/BV (x) 6.0 5.4 5.1 4.7 4.4 Dividend Yield (%) 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.0 Please see disclaimer on last page 4 Corporate Governance Report disclaimer The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors Score Range Number of Logo Description Association (“IOD”) regarding corporate governance is made pursuant to the policy of the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission.
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