IMPACTING SMALLHOLDER LIVELIHOODS THROUGH SPATIAL ANALYSIS AND PLANNING

12/04/2018 MISSION

Increasing livelihood options for rural Malawians

Current

Smallholder Village

Planned

Agricultural Co-op Village Factory Town Regional City

source: ORGpermod PROPOSITION

a coordinated multi sector Iterative planning process with physical assets and spatial management at the center

1. SURVEY AND ANALYSIS X X X X X X

2. GOAL FORMULATION X X X X X

3. PLAN MAKING X X X X

4. PLAN IMPLEMENTATION X X X X X X X X X 1. SURVEY AND ANALYSIS Population Density

Cities

• 4,4 inhabitants/home • 3,000 -> 5,000 inh/sqkm • density in example: 3,250 • 0-20% agriculture

Villages

• 5,0 inhabitants/home • 1,000 -> 3,000 inh/sqkm • density in example: 1,600 • 20-80% agriculture

Rural

• 5,4 inhabitants/home • 50 -> 1,000 inh/sqkm • density in example: 410 • 80-100% agriculture

0-137 inh/sqkm 138 - 314 inh/sqkm 315 - 596 inh/sqkm Malawi has a population of over 18 million, with a growth rate of 3.32% (CIA world factbook 597 - 1030 inh/sqkm 1031 - 1689 inh/sqkm 2017). The population is forecasted to grow to over 30 million by 2035, and 45 million by 1699 - 3356 inh/sqkm 2050 (IFS 2018), nearly tripling the estimated 16 million from 2010 in a period of 40 years.

source: ORGpermod 1. SURVEY AND ANALYSIS Arable Land

Different water resources: 4 lakes (yearlong): • Lake Malawi • Lake Chilwa • Lake Malome • Lake Chiuta (can desiccate)

Shire River (yearlong)

Seasonal sources: • Bua River • Dwangwa River • Luweya River • Rukuru River • Songwe River • Lufilya River

Suitable land = 47.5% Unsuitable land = 52.5% = 5,627,800 ha

Based upon following indicators: Slope (%), Soil erosion (ty^-1ha^-1), Soil organic carbon (%), Texture, Cat- ion exchange capacity (cmolkg^-1), pH, Soil depth, Drainage

Source left map: LI ET AL. 2017 Source right map: ORGpermod 2. GOAL FORMULATION Targets: Population growth and Urban/Rural split 2050

50 M 45 M 40 M - 35 M 30 M 25 M 20 M xTotal population 15 M - 10 M 85%

5 M Urban population 0 15% 2018 2035 2050

• current ratio • 5% per 15y increase • 10% per 15y increase • 15% per 15y increase

source: ORGpermod 2. GOAL FORMULATION Malawi Urban Footprint Scenarios - Population distribution 2050

Mega cities Compact Dispersed

Con-Urbations with connections Maintaining the Status Quo with Mid Sized Cities (+- 2M inh) as a to regional infrastructure form a Lilongwe and Blantyre (+- 5M inh) dominant form of settlement and linear continous settlement. Likely to acting as the country’ urban core governance. This could improve experience high level of slum urban with a few second tier cities (+- 2M control of density and by large will peripheries inh) such as Mzuzu and Zomba. allow for the preservation of natural Association of industry and urban and arable lans in between. settlemet will remain insignificant.

source: ORGpermod 4. PLAN IMPLEMENTATION Cost Benefit Analysis of planning scenarios

SCENARIO 1 PROJECT COST POTENTIAL BENEFITS $ +$ ++ Project construction and life cycle costs Flood protection savings, Environmental value Social value, Economic value

SCENARIO 2 PROJECT COST POTENTIAL BENEFITS $ +$ + Project construction and life cycle costs Flood protection savings, Environmental valu Social value, Economic value

SCENARIO 3 PROJECT COST POTENTIAL BENEFITS $ +$ + Project construction and life cycle costs Flood protection savings, Environmental value Social value, Economic value

BASE SCENARIO CURRENT VALUE PREDICTED RISKS POTENTIAL LOSSES Estimate value of existing property and systems whithin the project boundry $ $ - Evaluation of future ood damage for the Anticipated losses in the next 5, 20, 50 years area of the project

source: ORGpermod 3. PLAN MAKING District level planning - Ntchisi layered Analysis

Population • Density

• Villages

Environment • Soil type (wetland, forest,..)

• Watershedboundaries & Waterstreams

• Topography Industry/agriculture

Lilongwe • Arable land

• Industry activities (mining, markets) Infrastructure • Rail/Road/Port network

• Electricity network

Blantyre

source: ORGpermod 3. PLAN MAKING Infrastructure analysis

District boundaries Main Road Nkhotakota Rail Shipping 90 km Market Port Kasungu Electric network Main Water streams

90 km

110 km

Dowa

Salima 40 km

Lilongwe Chipoka

source: ORGpermod 3. PLAN MAKING Environmental analysis

Topography < 20 m 20 - 300 m 300 - 570 m 570 - 850 m 1850 - 1130 m 1130 - 1410 m 1410 - 1670 m 1670+ m

East side West side • 50% of surface area • 50% of surface area • 65% of population • 35% of population (= 137 000 inh) (= 75 000 inh) • 80% of arable land • 20% of arable land (= 71,600 ha) (= 19,000 ha) • flatland • mountains

Boundaries Forests + bufferzones Waterstreams + bufferzones

District Boundary District Boundary Watershed Boundary District Watershedboundaries

0 7.5 15 22.5 30 km

source: ORGpermod 3. PLAN MAKING Industry / Agriculture analysis 1 Tobacco farm

2

2 Market

1

3 3 West side agriculture on hills

90,500 ha total arable land = % 52 of district area

Wetland Tobacco Agriculture on hills Arable land 0 100m Graphite mining activities Markets

source: ORGpermod 3. PLAN MAKING Population analysis 1 East side rural flatland • density = 100 - 700 inh/sqkm

2 1 Visana, small city

• density = 1600 inh/sqkm (= most dense area of district)

2

3

3 West side rural mountains

• density = 0 - 500 inh/sqkm

< 150 inh/sqkm 150 - 520 inh/sqkm 0 400m 520 - 900 inh/sqkm 100 200 300 900 - 1260 inh/sqkm 1260 + inh/sqkm TA district levels

source: ORGpermod 3. PLAN MAKING Ntchisi - Population growth scenarios

population (thousand)

510k

3.3% 405k urban/rural = 50/50

212k urban/rural 3.3% 3.3 ->.1.8% 1.8 -> 0.7% population growth

= 10/90

2018 2045 time

Hypothesis (based upon correlation between growth rates and urban/rural of countries around the world)

if by 2045 urban/rural = 50/50 then population growth rate is around 1.7% • to achieve this population rate will decrease on average by 2,5% of the original rate each year • by 2045, population rate = 1,67% and population = 405,000 inhv •

source: ORGpermod 3. PLAN MAKING Land Use Scenarios for 2045

Base scenario Conservative Commercial Symmetrical

Rural/Urban 90/10 70/30 25/30 50/50

# Commercial 3 farms 10 farms 27 farms 19 farms

1 unit = 1,500 inh - 25 (4,500 inh - 75 sqkm) (15,000 inh - 250 sqkm) (40,500 inh - 675 sqkm) (28,500 inh - 475 sqkm) sqkm = 7,500 ha = 25,000 ha = 67,500 ha = 47,500 ha

# Smallholder 60,000 hh 60,000 hh 17,500 hh 36,500 hh

1 smallholder family = (330,000 inh - 600 sqkm) (330,000 inh - 600 sqkm) (96,250 inh - 175 sqkm) (200,750 inh - 365 sqkm) 5,5 inh 2 cities 2 cities 2 cities 1 cities

# Cities (50,000 inh = 12.5 sqkm) (100,000 inh = 25 sqkm) (100,000 inh - 25 sqkm) (100,000 inh - 25 sqkm)

1 unit = 25,000 inh = 12,5 sqkm 1 unit = 50,000 inh = 12,5 sqkm 1 unit = 50,000 inh - 12,5 sqkm 1 unit = 100,000 inh - 25 sqkm # Towns 3 towns 3 towns 3 towns 4 towns

(30,000 inh - 15sqkm) (60,000 inh - 30sqkm) (60,000 inh - 30skqm) (100,000 inh - 33sqkm)

1 unit = 10,000 inh - 10 sqkm 1 unit = 20,000 inh - 10 sqkm 1 unit = 20,000 inh - 10 sqkm 1 unit = 25,000 inh - 8 sqkm Total inh 505,000 505,000 296,000 420,000

source: ORGpermod 3. PLAN MAKING Range of typical investment opportunities in physical assets

$$$ Infrastructure Networks Road Infrastructrue

Irrigation Infrastructrue

Sanitation Infrastructrue Energy Infrastructrue

Local

Finance Magnitutde Cooperative Operations Farm village

Factory Town

Port facility

Commercial farm Civic buildings Logistics buildings

$ Public Private

source: ORGpermod 3. PLAN MAKING Case Studies: vs

Name: Kibbutz Name: Moshav Location: Jezreel Valley, Israel Location: Jezreel Valley, Israel Population: 631 (2016) Population: 803 (2016) Total Area: 0,49 km² Total Area: 1,28km² Residential Area: 0,24 km² Residential Area: 1,08km² Density: 2629/km² Density: 743/km² Economy: Technology, packaging, chocolate Economy: Fruit and vegetable agriculture

source: ORGpermod 3. PLAN MAKING Regional infrastructure development investment framework

Transportation Water Electricity

source: ORGpermod 3. PLAN MAKING Catalogue of investments on local scale

Irrigation Commercial Infrastructrue farms Market Building

Factory Town

Storage and Road Distribution Infrastructrue Building

Transportation Cooperative agricul- ture village - Moshav Water Electricity

source: ORGpermod 3. PLAN MAKING Local Development Investment Framework

Land resource distribution: Wetlands 12% Commercial farms 30% Villages 10% Factory Towns 5% Smallholders 40% Regional City 3%

source: ORGpermod 3. PLAN MAKING Increasing settlement type options

Smallholder Village Rural Village

40% - 50% 10% - 20%

Agricultural Co-op Village Factory Town Regional City

5% - 10% 5% - 10% 25% - 40%

Land resource distribution: Wetlands 12% Commercial farms 30% Villages 10% Factory Towns 5% Smallholders 40% Regional City 3%

source: ORGpermod THANK YOU 1 MALAWI - SURVEY AND ANALYSIS • SOCIAL DEMOGRAPHICS • ECONOMY • GOVERNANCE • ENVIRONMENT • INFRASTRUCTURE • ONGOING PROJECTS AND INITIATIVES 1. SURVEY AND ANALYSIS Population Density

<10 inh/sqkm 10-50 inh/sqkm 50-100 inh/sqkm 100-500 inh/sqkm 500-1000 inh/sqkm 1000+ inh/sqkm Inland water

Malawi has a population of over 18 million, with a growth rate of 3.32% (CIA world factbook 2017). The population is forecasted to grow to over 30 million by 2035, and 45 million by 2050 (IFS 2018), nearly tripling the estimated 16 million from 2010 in a period of 40 years.

source: ORGpermod 1. SURVEY AND ANALYSIS Land Cover

$1.27 billion, 2015

Raw tobacco = 55% of export value = 3.3% of arable land

35km

= sqkm 1,200

35km (120,000ha)

0 55 110 165 220 km

In terms of land area, maize takes up the largest area (more than 1.675 million hectares in 2013 = 45.5% of the national arable area), followed by groundnuts (9.8%) and beans (%8.3). Tobacco ranked the eighth crop by area with about 120,000 hectares (3.3%)

sources: Country STAT 2018, MIT OEC 1. SURVEY AND ANALYSIS Economic sectors

4.05 4.52 5.32 6.19 6.96 8.00 5.98 5.43 6.06 6.40 5.48 Bil USD Bil USD Bil USD Bil USD Bil USD Bil USD Bil USD Bil USD Bil USD Bil USD Bil USD

While the agricultural sector of Malawi contributes about a third of the country’s GDP, ~80% of the work force is employed in Agricultural sector, which supports the livelihoods of over 90 percent of the population (Malawi Government, 2013).

The smallholder sub-sector contributes around 25% of the total GDP, employs 95% of the total agricultural labor force (Malawi Government, 2004), and almost 70% of agricultural produce in Malawi comes from smallholder farmers (World Bank, 2006).

source: Statista 2018 1. SURVEY AND ANALYSIS Topography

Highlands

Slopes

Plateaus

Upper Valley

Lower Valley

Malawi - Topographic analysis - Five landforms

source: ORGpermod 1. SURVEY AND ANALYSIS Agriculture - Transportation

source: ORGpermod 1. SURVEY AND ANALYSIS Environment - watershed

About 91.5 of the total land area of Malawi is within the Zambezi River Basin (FAO 1997)

source: ORGpermod 1. SURVEY AND ANALYSIS Ongoing Initiatives Portal

source: ORGpermod 2 GOAL FORMULATION

• CONNECTIVITY • PRODUCTIVITY • ACCESIBILITY • SUSTAINABILITY 2. GOAL FORMULATION Values, Targets and Goals

+ =

Values Targets Goals

• good governance • Develop Irrigation Infrastructure • Agriculture, water development • economic growth (Water Masterplan) & climate change • vibrant culture • Develop Transportation Infrastruc- • Education and skill development • economic infrastructure ture (Transportation Masterplan) • Energy, industry & tourism • food security and nutrition • Achieve a more equal rural/urban development • social sector development ratio (around 50/50) • Transportation and ICT • achieving science and technologi- • Climate change adaptation development cal-led development • Increase Tourism • Health and Population • fair and equitable distribution of income

REPUBLIC OF MALAWI MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE, IRRIGATION AND WATER DEVELOPMENT (MoAIWD)

MALAWI GOVERNMENT

Ministry of Transport and Public Works MINISTRY OF LANDS, HOUSING AND URBAN PROJECT FOR NATIONAL WATER Malawi National REPUBLIC OF MALAWI DEVELOPMENT Transport Master Plan RESOURCES MASTER PLAN IN THE REPUBLIC OF MALAWI Final Report

MINES AND MINERALS POLICY OF MALAWI

FINAL REPORT MALAWI HABITAT III REPORT Volume II: Main Report

2013 - 2018

DECEMBER 2014

JAPAN INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION AGENCY (JICA)

volume 1 CTI ENGINEERING INTERNATIONAL CO., LTD main document ORIENTAL CONSULTANTS CO., LTD. October, 2015 NEWJEC Inc.

Developed by 㻳㻱㻌 Ministry of Industry and Trade PO Box 30366 Ministry of Mining 㻶㻾㻌 Lilongwe 3 㻝㻠㻙㻝㻥㻠㻌 Malawi March 2013

source: ORGpermod 2. GOAL FORMULATION Targets: Transportation Infrastructure

source: National Transportation Masterplan 2017 2. GOAL FORMULATION Targets: Irrigation development

2,500ha/year is decided with the Department of Iririgation, 5,000ha/year (ambitious scenario) is nearly equal to the standard development rate of SADC (South-Africa Development Communties) countries. The implementation plan is formulated with regards to: priority ordering, implementation period and cost per project, forming a smooth increase of irrigation development cost for investment.

source: Water Masterplan 3 PLAN MAKING • COMPREHENSIVE PLANNING • PLANNING PRINCIPLES • CASE STUDIES • DISTRICT LEVEL PLANNING • INVESTMENT FRAMEWORK 3. PLAN MAKING Comprehensive Planning

Industry/agriculture • Arable land

• Industry activities (mining, markets)

Infrastructure • Rail/Road/Port network

• Electricity network

Governance • Districit levels

• TA levels

Environment • Soil type (wetland, forest,..)

• Watershedboundaries & Waterstreams

• Topography

Population • Density

• Villages

source: ORGpermod 3. PLAN MAKING Local Development Investment Framework

EA Boundaries District Boundaries Waterstreams Wetlands Road Network Market Settlement density

source: ORGpermod 3. PLAN MAKING Case Studies of Rural Settlements development models: large scale smallholder farming systems

JEZREEL VALLEY ISRAEL SHOUGUANG CHINA

WACO CUNGO VALLEY ANGOLA

LA MARTELLA ITALY VICTOR IOWA U.S.A

source: ORGpermod 3. PLAN MAKING Case Studies: Jezreel Valley, Israel

Daburiyya 10.039 Metropolitan area of Shibli–Umm 3.983 65.500 al-Ghanam 13.961 Migdal HaEmek 5.762 25.084

*Nahalal 803

Kfar Yehoshua 2.016 4,5 km 1,8 km

Gvat 888 4,1 km 2 km 3,9 km 1,4 km 1,8 km 5,4 km 675 3,4 km 868 986 9 km 8,2 km 7 km 1.418 6,5km

Mizra 3,7 km 8,2 km 608 5 km 1,2 km 0,9 km Ahuzat1,3 Barak km 2.095 2,7 km 2.643 2,7 km 8,5 km 4,6 km 518 Kfar Gidon 354 5,6 km 655 1,9 km 2 km 1,8 km 1,6 km 4,3 km 3,5 km 4,2 km Balfurya 3 km 6,5 km 453 4,4 km 1.513

4,1 km Nin 3 km 2,4 km 1.775 2,7 km 2,8 km 10,8 km 4 km 2,4 km 2,6 km Dahi 648 5,5 km 3,9 km 2,1 km HaYogev 3,3 km 674 3,4 km Na’ura 2.175 5,5 km 8,7 km Mishmar 41.293 Shunem 4 km HaEmek 1.173 7,8 km Taibe 1128 4,4 km 1.779 5,3 km 6 km 3,2 km 6,9 km 2,3 km 5 km 4,7 km 8,8 km 6,2 km Ramat Tzvi 592 7,5 km Moledet 6,7 km 982 5,3 km 4,6 km 8 km Megido 6,7 km 852 6,8 km 1.138 Nir Yaffe 4,3 km 1,2 km *Geva 4,2 km 687 631 6,7 km 2,4 km 1,6 km Yizre’el 571 7,3 km 1.268 499 4,6 km Dvora 4 km 2,3 km 3,3 km 1,1 km 9,2 km Beit HaShita 1.223

Barak 3,8 km 425 Meitav 461

Zalafa Musmus 4.639 Zububa 4.215 2.124 NOTE: Total population: 216.233 Population of all agrarian settlements: 79.562 Area in image: 576 km²

source: ORGpermod 4. PLAN IMPLEMENTATION Cross sector partnerships and coalition building

Coalition building and stakeholder management is a political/community organizational process

source: ORGpermod 4. PLAN IMPLEMENTATION Non Linear Phasing

Vertically-integrated development models with a phased approach to infrastructure and economics

source: ORGpermod 4 PLAN IMPLEMENTATION

• ORGANIZING VERTICALLY INTEGRATED ECONOMIC SYSTEMS • PROJECT FINANCING MODELS (PPP, TIF, ETC,) • ZONING AND TAX INCENTIVES POLICIES • CROSS SECTOR PARTNERSHIPS AND COALITION BUILDING • COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS • NON LINEAR PHASING • IMPACT MONITORING