Food Fast to Making Mindful and and Mindful Making to Fast Food Getting About Being from Convenience Redefine To

www.iftf.org 650-854-6322 | | 650-854-6322 respective owners. Reproduction is prohibited without written consent. SR-1618B consent. written without prohibited is Reproduction owners. respective

© 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. All brands and trademarks remain the property of their their of property the remain trademarks and brands All reserved. rights All Future. the for Institute 2013 ©

Palo Alto CA 94301 CA Alto Palo healthful eating accessible for all. all. for accessible eating healthful

desires for ourselves, our children, and the planet. the and children, our ourselves, for desires 124 University Avenue, 2nd Floor 2nd Avenue, University 124 to redefine convenience from being about getting food fast to making mindful and and mindful making to fast food getting about being from convenience redefine to

Institute for the Future Future the for Institute we will need need will we the affluent, while billions of others go hungry. To address this dilemma, this address To hungry. go others of billions while affluent, the

limits, not only produce the food we need, but also to fulfill our evolving evolving our fulfill to also but need, we food the produce only not limits, or [email protected] or

our food, we’re packing on pounds. Mindless eating is driving lifestyle diseases among among diseases lifestyle driving is eating Mindless pounds. on packing we’re food, our

food as we look to these technologies—not just to help us breach these these breach us help to just technologies—not these to look we as food utlook, contact Dawn Alva at 650-233-9585 650-233-9585 at Alva Dawn contact utlook, O ood F Global ’s F T IF about

“on-the-go” products. But the OECD has found that as we spend less time preparing preparing time less spend we as that found has OECD the But products. “on-the-go”

all our encounters with it. Over the next decade, we will re-experience re-experience will we decade, next the Over it. with encounters our all tion a m or f in ore m For

For decades, speed and ease have defined eating: fast food, ready meals, and and meals, ready food, fast eating: defined have ease and speed decades, For EATING

in in food experience we way the transform to limits, those beyond us

onvenience C

redefining

encountering their limits. Technological innovations are poised to take take to poised are innovations Technological limits. their encountering

Design and Production: and Design Robin Bogott, Dylan Hendricks, Karin Lubeck, Robin Weiss, Trent Kuhn Trent Weiss, Robin Lubeck, Karin Hendricks, Dylan Bogott, Robin

engaged in the experience of food. But today, these strategies are are strategies these today, But food. of experience the in engaged

Project Management: Project Neela Lazkani Neela

Producer and Creative Director: Creative and Producer Jean Hagan Jean These strategies have been well honed by generations of people people of generations by honed well been have strategies These

Editors: Lorraine Anderson, Pete Shanks Pete Anderson, Lorraine

2013–2023

Peer Reviewer: Peer Kathi Vian Kathi

diners’ considerations. considerations. diners’

done anytime, anywhere. anywhere. anytime, done

Authors: Miriam Lueck Avery, Ben Hamamoto, Bradley Kreit, Sarah Smith Sarah Kreit, Bradley Hamamoto, Ben Avery, Lueck Miriam

Shopping will no longer be an episodic event, but rather something that can be be can that something rather but event, episodic an be longer no will Shopping dominate still affordability and convenience eating, to comes it

ENTS M ad ACKNOWLEDGE

and consumers want the real-time convenience of the Internet in the physical world. world. physical the in Internet the of convenience real-time the want consumers and

Shopping centralizes food in a common marketplace. And when when And marketplace. common a in food centralizes Shopping c ING

offered in one place. This behavior is reaching its limits. Food waste plagues retailers retailers plagues waste Food limits. its reaching is behavior This place. one in offered

Future is based in Palo Alto, California. Alto, Palo in based is Future

efficiency. Manufacturing is at its best when it can be standardized. standardized. be can it when best its at is Manufacturing efficiency. PP retailers turned food shopping into a once-a-week activity where everything was was everything where activity once-a-week a into shopping food turned retailers

health and health care to technology, the workplace, and human identity. The Institute for the the for Institute The identity. human and workplace, the technology, to care health and health

O experiences. Production aims for intensification. Distribution requires requires Distribution intensification. for aims Production experiences. s and big box box big and s Supermarket shopping. one-stop of rise the saw decades past The insights that lead to action and spans a broad territory of deeply transformative trends, from from trends, transformative deeply of territory broad a spans and action to lead that insights

e H

innovation, and social dilemmas. Our research generates the foresight needed to create create to needed foresight the generates research Our dilemmas. social and innovation,

thus developed several core strategies for optimizing this cycle of food food of cycle this optimizing for strategies core several developed thus S

centralization centralization

rethinking

marketplace. We provide our members with insights into business strategy, design process, process, design strategy, business into insights with members our provide We marketplace.

th has system food complex planet’s our decades, few last the Over

emerging trends and discontinuities that will transform global society and the global global the and society global transform will that discontinuities and trends emerging

celebrating 45 years of forecasting experience. The core of our work is identifying identifying is work our of core The experience. forecasting of years 45 celebrating

The Institute for the Future is an independent, nonprofit strategic research group group research strategic nonprofit independent, an is Future the for Institute The

and real in ways that range from healthy to hedonistic. to healthy from range that ways in real and of

F T F I out p Ab humans, including themselves, make those pleasures both convenient convenient both pleasures those make themselves, including humans,

additives, we’ll remix standardization. Processing will become transparent. transparent. become will Processing standardization. remix we’ll additives, pleasures to come. And as mealtime approaches, they help busy busy help they approaches, mealtime as And come. to pleasures

M change. and volatility of decade a for strategies resilient more develop

suppliers and consumers become skeptical of foods filled with sugar, corn, and and corn, sugar, with filled foods of skeptical become consumers and suppliers

about these future possibilities, we help our clients, sponsors, and collaborators collaborators and sponsors, clients, our help we possibilities, future these about shopping experiences that speak to our personal desires and foretell foretell and desires personal our to speak that experiences shopping

disruptions and dilemmas in food and agriculture. By thinking systematically systematically thinking By agriculture. and food in dilemmas and disruptions As commodity economics squeeze squeeze economics commodity As question whether the results are truly “food.” “food.” truly are results the whether question

ey create create ey Th tables. and kitchens, markets, our to diversity bring that

years, we’ve worked with organizations to use foresight to think through through think to foresight use to organizations with worked we’ve years,

the most unruly ingredients. But this has meant selecting and processing—and some some processing—and and selecting meant has this But ingredients. unruly most the TURING

complex environmental issues that sustain food production. For seven seven For production. food sustain that issues environmental complex flavors from a few staple ingredients. They design distribution systems systems distribution design They ingredients. staple few a from flavors

homogenized cheese to Coke’s algorithmic orange juice, we have standardized even even standardized have we juice, orange algorithmic Coke’s to cheese homogenized

food habits and choices, to the dynamics of global food markets, to the the to markets, food global of dynamics the to choices, and habits food AC

Consistency of taste and texture was a 20th century breakthrough. From Kraft’s Kraft’s From breakthrough. century 20th a was texture and taste of Consistency

and innovators engineer processes to manufacture a cornucopia of of cornucopia a manufacture to processes engineer innovators and F the tensions and possibilities of food futures, from people’s everyday everyday people’s from futures, food of possibilities and tensions the

ogram’s research and forecasts explore explore forecasts and research ogram’s Pr Outlook Food Global The

to produce more, and hopefully higher quality, food. Entrepreneurs Entrepreneurs food. quality, higher hopefully and more, produce to

standardization standardization

utlook remixing

O F G out Ab ways ways personal. Food scientists and farmers alike experiment with with experiment alike farmers and scientists Food personal. ANU O

M For many of us, these food experiences are professional as well as as well as professional are experiences food these us, of many For

our imaginations. imaginations. our a rebalancing towards resilience, local sources, and deliciousness. and sources, local resilience, towards rebalancing a

to make a better future today. future better a make to

We will see see will We others must scale up: and efficient systems are often inflexible and brittle. brittle. and inflexible often are systems efficient and up: scale must others

for people and the planet. the and people for

to leverage technological disruptions disruptions technological leverage to

at rest, in politics and in play, in our bodies and in in and bodies our in play, in and politics in rest, at a

as they once were. Some operations struggle to reconnect to local sources, while while sources, local to reconnect to struggle operations Some were. once they as

ake m e R

future of food of future the

y f denti I opportunities

b kitchens, and markets. But we’ve made tradeoffs. Foods are not as tasty and nutritious nutritious and tasty as not are Foods tradeoffs. made we’ve But markets. and kitchens,

eating. This cycle shapes our daily lives at work and and work at lives daily our shapes cycle This eating. UTION

ories, restaurant restaurant ories,

of ships, trains, and trucks. Efficiency rules for food headed to fact to headed food for rules Efficiency trucks. and trains, ships, of B

all hold about technology’s potential. technology’s about hold all together the power power the together stack units flexible efficiency: transformed container shipping The it is being remixed, realigned, and remade. and realigned, remixed, being is it

distribution, manufacturing, shopping, and finally, finally, and shopping, manufacturing, distribution, G

we hopes and fears the recalibrate to

how and experience food of cycle the in

iciency ff e

rebalancing

ngage

A Food l E uncertainty with

erse erse Imm ourself y cycle of human activity that includes food production, production, food includes that activity human of cycle

DISTRI

Human experience is deeply rooted in food—in the the food—in in rooted deeply is experience Human

the future of the food system. food the of future the

ct with human values, and remake remake and values, human with ct interse technologies how into insights develop to perspectives,

of our planetary food system food planetary our of limits

our set of companion forecast forecast companion of set our Experiences, Food Remaking with it Combine decade. next the

how and where we focus our quest for abundance. abundance. for quest our focus we where and how

nology and strategy strategy and nology h tec

at the the at

that technologies will create in in create will technologies that possibilities the of overview high-level a get to map this Use

Technologies, and an ecological understanding of how to use them, will reorganize reorganize will them, use to how of understanding ecological an and Technologies,

d foo of ure t fu e th g kin a rem is y g nolo ch e t ow h

and carbon-intensive production are problems that need action now to close the gap. gap. the close to now action need that problems are production carbon-intensive and

in the long term. long the in useful be will that disruptions the seek and conversation, this between what we need and what we can produce. Degraded land, collapsing fisheries, fisheries, collapsing land, Degraded produce. can we what and need we what between

scientists to farmers, entrepreneurs to politicians, to all of us eaters—we invite you to engage in in engage to you invite eaters—we us of all to politicians, to entrepreneurs farmers, to scientists aquaculture, factory farms. But in the 50 years to come, this path will widen the gap gap the widen will path this come, to years 50 the in But farms. factory aquaculture,

healthy and those that are harmful. From wherever you stand in the world food web—from food food web—from food world the in stand you wherever From harmful. are that those and healthy Over the past 50 years we’ve gotten more out of less: increasing yields, intensifying intensifying yields, increasing less: of out more gotten we’ve years 50 past the Over

d eating practices that are are that practices eating d an foods the between have-nots, the and haves the between need,

ication ication f ntensi I

reorganizing

important gaps in the food system. These gaps are between what we can make and what we we what and make can we what between are gaps These system. food the in gaps important

ogies can be used wisely to close close to wisely used be can ogies This map is a tool for starting conversations about how technol how about conversations starting for tool a is map This Production

p a m is h t out Ab strategies ore C

encountering limits encountering

Food: A Cycle of Human Experience core strategies encounteringCrop limits Intensification Rises DISRUPTIONS pointing to new paths Strains of uncertainty unearthing extreme potential

Crop Intensification Rises

Production GROWING FOOD on every surface Transforming protein Index value Climate-resilient agriculture 500 Communities’ increasing demands for sovereign food systems will drive a shift from Substitutes and in-vitro creations are transforming animal husbandry. While biologists have begun While today agriculture is the eighth-largest contributor to greenhouse gasses, it could quickly 400 monocropping rural land to ubiquitous microfarming. Advances in film farming, exploring the use of stem cell technologies to create “in-vitro” meat, synthetics made from soy beans become one of the most powerful tools for mitigating climate change. Technologies and techniques aeroponics, and aquaponics will allow urban communities to grow food crops with minimal and other plants that are virtually indistinguishable from animal proteins are already hitting store 300 are emerging to provide scalable solutions to thorny problems of waste management, soil depletion, soil and water use, indoors and outdoors. Urban farming will transform from scattered rooftop shelves. Often cheaper and easier on the earth, these substitutes have the potential to reinvent intensification and desertification. Re:char’s model of selling the tools necessary to make profitable and ecological 200 gardens into dense local production, ranging from state-of-the-art vertical farms to derelict protein. We’ll see a shift from concentrated animal raising to synthetic substitutions. However, the agricultural input exemplifies locally-appropriate replication of key technologies, combined with warehouses. Swarming robots and other autonomous machines enable cultivation on opinions of consumers about these options will prove volatile as well. 100 global knowledge-sharing and coordination. 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2007 hard-to-reach surfaces in cities, and on depopulated rural farms. Fertilizer consumption Irrigated land area Cereal production Harvested land area

Source: FAO 2011 FAO Source:

L a

Year-round Produce Availability l o

DISTRI C

Tapping distribution networks :

e Supply chain sabotage

Pumpkins r u

Today’s distribution networks can quickly reach remote areas, but are dominated by large o ‹ Filling supply chain gaps Cabbage S The current emphasis on efficiency and the deep integration of hackable technologies leave food Source: http://www.fao.org/ag/save-and-grow/en/1/index.htmlproducers. Social technology platforms are poised to disrupt this system by allowing small-scale Potatoes ColaLife is a non-profit that systems vulnerable to intentional disruptions. Additionally, the incredibly complex global supply

B producers to piggyback on existing shipping, trucking, and rail infrastructure. This cuts out delivers essential medicine Apples chain for much of the world’s food has proven itself difficult to monitor effectively. While profiteering UTION middlemen, automates administrative tasks, and provides logistical support to enable dynamic and nutritional supplements to and negligence already threaten this chain, intentional sabotage of the food supply chain could efficiency Garlic remote regions by leveraging economies of scale. Seamless integration of small producers will allow procurers to meet cause significant illness and casualties on a near global scale, as well as mass panic. Spinach demands for locally sourced food and reduced-waste. unused capacity in Coca Cola’s Broccoli supply chains. 0 500 1000 1500 2000 Miles traveled

Source: Leopold Center for Sustainable Agriculture Source:

r u M

Manufactured for Consistent Taste e

: ANU

Taking manufacturing local c r Open food manufacturing commons

o As improvements in small-scale electronics continue over the next decade, an increasing S 600+ Automating precision coffee making › Technology has already greatly reduced the cost of producing many foods due to vast economies F juice flavors number of food manufacturing tasks that previously required large-scale factories and AC The K-Cup machine is a consumer of scale. In the next decade, advances in digital manufacturing, sustainable energy, citizen-led equipment will move to supermarkets and, at times, even into homes. Already, device that precision brews a single bioengineering, and automation could reach a tipping point. The convergence of these technologies TURING standardization direct-to-consumer devices such as Soda Stream are enabling people to create soda cup of coffee, tea, hot chocolate, or could make even very sophisticated food processing systems accessible around the world, in-home, while prototypes of 3D food printers point toward a future where local other hot beverage with minimal reducing the set up cost of such systems to the point where communities could create self- ingredients processed by lightweight equipment will disrupt large-scale manufacturing effort from the user. sustaining food commons that rival the technical sophistication of large-scale multinationals. 1 quintillion processes with locally customizable foods. decision variables Understanding food waste Source: BusinessWeek Source:

t e n r e Waste-intensive Retail Models t t a

Per capita food losses and waste (kg/year) M Grocery shopping without the store : Decision-free shopping e c r S u o

H Over the next decade, conventional food retail channels will be disrupted by a variety of new services North America & Oceania S ‹ Delivering by drone As our refrigerators, cabinets, packages, and even bodies become connected in a tapestry of

O promising on-demand home delivery. Offerings like Tesco’s virtual grocery store in a South Korean Europe Matternet aims to leapfrog networked matter, shopping turns into a wholly automated process that requires no human PP subway, as well as more recent efforts like Starbucks’ car dashboard that enables coffee ordering road infrastructure in developing decision-making. Food orders are determined by our inferred preferences and health needs and are Industrialized Asia while driving, point to a retail future where food purchasing is independent of purchase location. ING centralization countries by using drones to triggered automatically when supplies dwindle. In this landscape, shoppers cease to consciously Latin America These technologies will converge with systems such as Kiva’s automated warehousing robots and offer more convenient and precise look for new options, rendering packaging and other aspects of persuasion irrelevant. South & Southeast Asia self-driving cars to create just-in-time home delivery services. just-in-time delivery.

0 200 400 FoodConsumer at home decliningProduction to retailing Source: FAO 2009 FAO Source:

At-home Meals Decline Leveling up cooking skills Augmenting mindful eating Taste rewired Percentage 100 As the appliances in our kitchens—from refrigerators and stoves to pots, pans, cutting Technologies have become the nemesis of a mindful eating experience. But in the next People trying to lose weight have one obstacle above everything else: their own biology. Humans

EATING At home Source: http://www.fao.org/docrep/014/mb060e/mb060e02.pdfAway from home boards, and spatulas—gain the ability to communicate with us and with each other, decade, instead of just being a distraction, technology will be put to use to encourage are hardwired to find sugary, fatty, calorie-rich foods delicious. However, in the next decade, new cooking fresh meals will become increasingly easy and convenient, drastically eating mindfully. Visual, tactile, and other sensory feedback will reinforce positive habits, kinds of permanent surgeries will arise to change how our brains process taste and hunger; in other convenience 50 reducing purchases of processed or pre-cooked meals. Kitchen helper tutorials such as actively paying attention to food, body cues, and social company. The benefits words, a gastric bypass for the brain. While today’s food landscape is built around natural food and games will interface with numerous appliances and brands. Chefs and of these practices will continue to be quantified and successfully deployed to prevent preferences, the ability to effectively hack our brains could result in massive shifts in the quantity video game companies, food companies, grocery stores, and everyday weight gain and to make eating experiences more social and enjoyable. and types of foods we consume. 0 people will create programs to promote cooking skills. 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Source: USDA 2012 Table 10 USDA 2012 Table Source:

Source: Table 10, http://www.ers.usda.gov/Briefing/CPIFoodAndExpenditures/Data/