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Crisis Watch Nr 131 1 July 2014 Board of Trustees Co-Chairs Trends Lord (Mark) Malloch-Brown June 2014 Thomas R Pickering Deteriorated Situations Improved Situations President and CEO Iraq (p.11) Yemen (p.11) Louise Arbour Kenya (p.2) Vice-Chairs Pakistan (p.6) Ayo Obe Somalia (p.3) Ghassan Salamé Sri Lanka (p.6) Executive Committee Cheryl Carolus Unchanged Situations Maria Livanos Cattaui Frank Giustra Afghanistan (p.5), Algeria (p.11), Armenia (p.7), Azerbaijan (p.7), Bangladesh (p.5), Burkina George Soros Faso (p.4), Burundi (p.2), Cameroon (p.2), Central African Republic (p.2), Chad (p.2), China Pär Stenbäck (internal) (p.5), China/Japan (p.5), Colombia (p.9), Côte d’Ivoire (p.4), Cyprus (p.8), DR Congo (p.2), Egypt (p.11), Ethiopia (p.2), Georgia (p.8), Guatemala (p.9), Guinea (p.4), Guinea- Morton Abramowitz Kofi Annan Bissau (p.4), India (non-Kashmir) (p.6), Indonesia (p.6), Iran (p.11), Israel-Palestine (p.10), Nahum Barnea Kashmir (p.6), Kazakhstan (p.9), Korean Peninsula (p.5), Kosovo (p.7), Kyrgyzstan (p.9), Samuel Berger Lebanon (p.10), Liberia (p.4), Libya (p.11), Madagascar (p.3), Mali (p.4), Mauritania (p.12), Micheline Calmy-Rey Mexico (p.9), Moldova (p.8), Morocco (p.12), Mozambique (p.3), Myanmar (p.6), Nagorno- Wesley Clark Karabakh (Azerbaijan) (p.7), Nepal (p.6), Niger (p.4), Nigeria (p.4), North Caucasus (p.8), Papua Sheila Coronel Mark Eyskens New Guinea (p.7), Peru (p.10), Philippines (p.6), Rwanda (p.2), Somaliland (p.3), South China Joschka Fischer Sea (p.7), South Sudan (p.3), Sudan (p.3), Syria (p.10), Tajikistan (p.9), Thailand (p.7), Tunisia (p.12), Lykke Friis Turkey (p.8), Turkmenistan (p.9), Ukraine (p.8), Uzbekistan (p.9), Venezuela (p.10), Western Jean-Marie Guéhenno Sahara (p.12), Zimbabwe (p.4) Lena Hjelm-Wallén Mo Ibrahim Asma Jahangir Wadah Khanfar July 2014 Watchlist Wim Kok Ricardo Lagos Conflict Risk Alerts Conflict Resolution Joanne Leedom-Ackerman Lalit Mansingh Afghanistan (p.5) Opportunities Benjamin Mkapa Iraq (p.11) Laurence Parisot Israel-Palestine (p.10) Karim Raslan Somalia (p.3) Paul Reynolds Javier Solana Liv Monica Stubholt CrisisWatch Larry Summers Wang Jisi summarises briefly developments during the previous month summarises Crisis Group’s reports and briefing papers that Wu Jianmin in some 70 situations of current or potential conflict, listed have been published in the last month. Lionel Zinsou alphabetically by region, providing references and links to CrisisWatch is compiled by Crisis Group’s Brussels Research more detailed information sources (all references mentioned Chairmen Emeriti Unit, drawing on multiple sources including the resources of our are hyperlinked in the electronic version of this bulletin); Martti Ahtisaari some 140 staff members across five continents, who already assesses whether the overall situation in each case has, dur- George J. Mitchell report on some 60 of the situations listed here. Comments ing the previous month, significantly deteriorated, significantly and suggestions can be sent to [email protected]. improved, or on balance remained more or less unchanged; President Emeritus alerts readers to situations where, in the coming month, there To search past issues of CrisisWatch visit our databases and Gareth Evans is a particular risk of new or significantly escalated conflict, resources page at www.crisisgroup.org. or a particular conflict resolution opportunity (noting that in some instances there may in fact be both); and Crisis Group is an independent, non-profit, non-governmental organisation, with some 140 staff members on five continents, working through field-based analysis and high-level advocacy to prevent and resolve deadly conflict. Crisis Group’s approach is grounded in field research. Teams of political analysts are located within or close by countries at risk of outbreak, escalation or recurrence of violent conflict. Based on information and assessments from the field, Crisis Group produces regular analytical reports containing practical recommendations targeted at key international decision-takers, and backed up with high-level advocacy. Crisis Group is chaired by former U.S. Ambassador and Vice Chairman of Hills & Company Thomas R. Pickering, and its President and Chief Executive is former UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Louise Arbour. New Crisis Group Africa Report N°219, The Central African Crisis: From Africa Predation to Stabilisation, 17 June 2014. To stabilise the Central African Republic (CAR), the transitional government and its international partners need to prioritise, alongside security, action to fight corruption and trafficking Central Africa of natural resources, as well as revive the economy. Burundi Tensions between international community and govt Chad Boko Haram (BH) early June threatened attack on Chad- continued: after 2 June statement by special envoys from U.S., ian capital following President’s Deby declaration of “total war” AU, UN, EU criticising restrictions of political freedom, UN against BH in May. Govt tightened control and restricted border diplomat asked to leave country; decision later reversed. De- movements between Cameroon’s Kousseri and N’djamena. spite international pressure, detention of human rights group “Le Tchad prend des mesures pour lutter contre Boko Haram”, RFI, 9 June APRODH chairman Pierre Claver Mbonimpa upheld by ap- 2014. peals court 9 June. Congolese NGO Journaliste en Danger (JED) alleged 2 journalists threatened by Burundian soldiers in S Kivu DR Congo Clashes between Rwandan and Congolese troops at despite govt denial of Burundian presence in DR Congo; 9 sol- border in Kanyecheza, north of Goma/Gisenyi, killed up to 5 diers reportedly killed 23 June by National Forces of Liberation FARDC soldiers 11-12 June; Rwanda and DRC traded blame, (FNL) in S Kivu, DRC. President Nkurunziza 5 June suggested Kigali reasserted allegation FARDC infiltrated by Hutu extrem- he could run for presidency in 2015 elections despite constitu- ists. Regional ICGLR team visited area on fact-finding mission; tional two-term limit. Political parties 9 June adopted code of MONUSCO called for calm, deployed intervention unit to area, good conduct ahead of 2015 polls. announced investigation. FDLR demobilisation continued: 83 “Burundi denies soldiers in eastern DRCongo”, AFP, 7 June 2014. surrendered to MONUSCO in Kitogo, S Kivu; ceremony at- tended by SADC delegation; further steps and timing uncer- Cameroon Security operations against Nigerian Islamist sect tain, depends on FDLR assessment of progress in meeting its Boko Haram (BH) continued in Far North region: state media requests. FDLR elements reportedly involved in creation of reported at least 60 BH killed by military early June; at least 94 new Hutu military groups in Lubero territory, N Kivu. Over 33 suspected BH including arms dealer arrested in Fotokol, Kous- civilians killed 6 June in Mutarala territory, Ruzizi plain near seri and Amchidé. President Biya early June replaced governor Burundi border; perpetrators unknown but incident widely at- of Far North. 3 western Catholic clerics kidnapped in April re- tributed to Banyamulenge; majority of victims reportedly ethnic leased 1 June in Amchidé. Bafuliru. Several MPs called for govt to cut ties with Congo- “Cameroon’s military seizes war weapons”, VOA, 18 June 2014. Brazaville over expulsion of DRC citizens, ongoing reports of rights abuses. Central African Republic Sectarian violence continued in Ban- “DRC government says FDLR rebels disarming”, VOA, 15 June 2014. gui and provinces, several killed in Ouaka, centre, scores killed throughout month in and near Bambari. Clashes with peace- Rwanda Tensions with DRC intensified (see DR Congo): Presi- keeping forces continued following failed attempts to disarm dent Kagame 5 June warned of increasing insecurity in north armed groups, including in Bambari late June. Several killed 14 and west due to alleged DRC armed groups, also reportedly reit- June in clashes between Muslim self-defence groups and anti- erated threat against those who would “destabilise the country”. balaka in PK5 district of Bangui. Dialogue between Seleka and “Heavy fighting resumes on Rwanda-DRC border”, Al Jazeera, 12 June anti-balaka, mediated by NGO Pareto, opened 15 June, little 2014. support for talks in ranks. Anti-balaka 27 June held internal meeting aiming to unify movement. New armed group Union des forces armées centrafricaines pour le redressement (UFA- Horn of Africa CAR) emerged during month, officially fighting for restoration of constitutional order, called for all former CAR soldiers to Ethiopia Tensions with Egypt over construction of hydroelec- join them. President Samba Panza 10-13 June organised meet- tric dam eased after remarks by Egyptian President Sisi during 8 ing to define roadmap for reconciliation and dialogue, govt pre- June inaugural speech vowing cooperation. Egyptian-Ethiopian sented four-point plan to restore peace. UN preliminary report summit held late June, marks new chapter on relations and po- leaked 6 June accused both sides of crimes against humanity, litical dialogue between two countries. Ethiopia 24 June closed stated alleged role of Chad and Sudan in CAR violence; Chad border with Somaliland citing security concerns, fear Al-Sha- govt strongly denied, CAR delegation visited Khartoum; Samba baab could cross border. Panza 13 June requested ICC investigation into war crimes. CAR summit between Angola, Chad and Congo held early June, “Egypt, Ethiopia agree on ‘new chapter’ in ties”, Gulf News, 27 June 2014. called on UN to increase humanitarian assistance and speed up MINUSCA deployment. EU military force 15 June reached full Kenya Security worsened with increased terrorist attacks, in- operational capacity of 700 soldiers and police. U.S. Special Rep cluding assassination of moderate Muslim cleric Sheikh Mo- for CAR Symington visited Bangui 17-21 June. hammed Idris 10 June in Mombasa. At least 58 killed 15-16 Thierry Vircoulon and Thibaud Lesueur, “The CAR Crisis: Thinking Beyond June in Mpeketoni town, Lamu county; scores killed 24 June Traditional Peacekeeping”, International Crisis Group, 17 June 2014.
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