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War Or Peace in the South China Sea?

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War Or Peace in the South China Sea? WAR OR PEACE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA? The Nordic Institute of Asian Studies (NIAS) is funded by the governments of Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden via the Nordic Council of Ministers, and works to encourage and support Asian studies in the Nordic countries. In so doing, NIAS has been publishing books since 1969, with more than one hundred titles produced in the last decade. WAR OR PEACE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA? Edited by Timo Kivimäki Press First published in 2002 by NIAS Press Nordic Institute of Asian Studies Leifsgade 33, DK–2300 Copenhagen S, Denmark tel: (+45) 3254 8844 • fax: (+45) 3296 2530 E–mail: [email protected] • Website: http://eurasia.nias.ku.dk/publications/ © Nordic Institute of Asian Studies (NIAS) 2002 All rights reserved. While copyright in this volume as a whole is vested in NIAS, copyright in the individual papers belongs to the authors. No paper may be reproduced in whole or in part without the express permission of author and publisher. The responsibility for facts and opinions in this publication rests exclusively with the editor and contributors, and their interpretations do not necessarily reflect the views of the publishers. British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data War or peace in the South China sea?. - (NIAS reports ; no. 45) 1.International relations 2.South China Sea - Strategic aspects I.Kivimaki, Timo II.Nordic Institute of Asian Studies 327.1’6’0916472 ISBN 87-91114-01-2 (NIAS)) Typesetting by NIAS Press Printed and bound in Great Britain by Biddles Ltd CONTENTS Contributors ... 7 PART I: INTRODUCTION 1. Introduction by Timo Kivimäki ... 1 2. The History of the Dispute by Stein Tønnesson ... 6 3. Claims and Conflict Situations by Ramses Amer ... 19 PART II: DIMENSIONS 4. Dangers to the Environment by Tom Næss ... 43 5. The Economic Dimension: Natural Resources and Sea Lanes by Stein Tønnesson ... 54 6. The Military Aspects of the Disputes by Bjørn Møller ... 62 7. The Political Dimension: Sources of Conflict and Stability by Ramses Amer and Timo Kivimäki ... 87 PART III: PEACE PROSPECTS 8. Ongoing Efforts in Conflict Management by Ramses Amer ... 117 9. What Could Be Done? by Timo Kivimäki, Liselotte Odgaard and Stein Tønnesson ... 131 10. Conclusions by Timo Kivimäki ... 165 Bibliography ... 171 Index ... 211 FIGURES 3:1 Definitions of EEZ, continental shelf and territorial sea … 25 7.10 Inter-state Disputes (D) and Conflicts (C) Among the South China Sea Nations … 90 MAP 3:1 Map of the South China Sea … 26 TABLES 6:1 Military Installations in the Spratly Islands … 64 6:2 PLA Naval Facilities … 67–68 6:3 The Naval Military Balance in the South China Sea … 78 7:1 Disputes since the 1950s (or since independence) among countries with territorial claims in the South China Sea … 88 CONTRIBUTORS Dr Ramses Amer is an Associate Professor and Co-ordinator of the Southeast Asia Programme (SEAP) at Uppsala University. Dr Timo Kivimäki is a Senior Researcher at the Nordic Institute of Asian Studies (NIAS). Dr Bjørn Møller is a Senior Fellow and Project Director of a Research Program on Non-Offensive Defense, Copenhagen Peace Research Institute (COPRI). Mr Tom Næss is a Researcher at the Fridtjof Nansen Institute (FNI), Norway. Dr Liselotte Odgaard is Assistant Professor at the Department of Political Science, University of Århus. Dr Stein Tønnesson is Director of the International Peace Research Institute, Oslo (PRIO). PART I INTRODUCTION 1 INTRODUCTION Timo Kivimäki The South China Sea area is often portrayed as a theatre of military tension and dangerous conflict potential. A recent proof of the possibility that the territorial disputes there could trigger conflict could be witnessed in April 2001, as a US Navy EP-3 Aries intelligence aircraft collided with a Chinese F-8 fighter plane over waters that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) was claiming, but the United States con- sidered international. While the resulting diplomatic confrontation was about safety of aviation and military technology, the disagreement over the sovereignty of the waters played an important part in the argumen- tation. The South China Sea disputes are, however, a much more complex matter, involving environmental values, economic security and political developments, and so cannot be reduced to traditional military security alone. For the ordinary people in the countries that take part in the disputes, the area is first and foremost a source of seafood and a sea-lane of transportation. Both the safety of sea lanes and the management of fisheries are fundamentally affected by the disputes of sovereignty over territories in the South China Sea. The interest of the disputant nations in the territorial disputes in the South China Sea is tied to their political, economic, environmental and military concerns. In terms of military security, there are reasons to claim that for many of these nations the disputes over territories in the South China Sea constitute ‘the least unlikely’ trigger for inter-state war. In general, territorial disputes have proved to be the principal motive for inter-state warfare,1 while more specifically the statistics of militarised inter-state disputes2 show the area to be no exception in this regard. The importance of these disputes in regional security considerations is paramount. Indeed, while institutionalisation of the security arrange- ments in the South China Sea area is rather underdeveloped, the 1 WAR OR PEACE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA? disputes of South China Sea have motivated collective security arrange- ments even among some of the non-aligned nations. As early as November 1983, General Benny Murdani, then Commander of the Indonesian Armed Forces, stated that Indonesia was ready to give military assistance to Malaysia if the latter were attacked. He promised that Indonesia would assist Malaysia militarily if the atoll Terumbu Layang-Layang, one of the disputed Spratly Island groups held by Malaysia but also claimed by Vietnam and China, came under attack.3 Economically and ecologically, fisheries constitute a major interest as around 70 per cent of the Southeast Asian population live by the sea and the South China Sea fisheries represent almost one quarter of the total Asian catch. Also the importance of the sea-lanes in the South China Sea is a key factor in economic, diplomatic, military and environmental policies. For the external involved powers, such as the United States and Japan, the South China Sea presents a problem of economic, diplomatic, environmental and military stability. With the exception of direct military threat, many of the same worries experienced by the disputants are also felt, albeit to a lesser extent, by the United States and Japan. This has been clearly expressed in the military and diplomatic tension, as well as in the qualified nervousness of the markets dependent on the South China Sea. The South China Sea has become meaningful also for the non- involved nations such as those in the European Union. This interest is often based on considerations of global security policies: the economic, ecological and social threats caused by the prospect of war or ecological disaster in the area. First, new global security policies are based on national security considerations. Political, economic and military interests are interlinked with global security interests and this is why even faraway countries have to follow developments in places like the South China Sea. National security policies of most nations are today more than ever based on a broad, comprehensive and global concept of security. National security policies are concretely influenced by the development of global international tension. International tension is also seen to reflect on regional tensions and global threats of war. Moreover today the threat of uncontrolled migration, refugee problems, international criminality, the spread of drugs and small arms, epidemics and religious funda- mentalism are seen as factors influencing national security, often created by global insecurity and wars. Furthermore, national economic security can easily be affected by conflicts at the major hubs of international trade routes, such as the South China Sea. Comprehensive global security policy issues, such as global environmental challenges, directly affect the national security of all countries. While global environmental 2 INTRODUCTION challenges as such might be security threats, the disputes in the South China Sea also prove how they might very well be connected with more traditional security threats: while the sovereignty of the areas is disputed, this unclear situation is rapidly giving rise to environmental challenges, as will be shown in Tom Næss’s chapter in this volume. Second, global security policies have been developed outside the national security policy context in the framework of the promotion of peace via the instruments offered by development cooperation. By sup- porting democracy, human rights and economic development, as well as helping developing countries to build institutions for dispute settlement and conflict transformation, aid donor countries have attempted to contribute to global security. Many countries and agencies with a serious commitment to development cooperation have already started to draw up their conflict prevention strategies as part of their development cooperation.4 The aim of the present study is to introduce the reader to the various dimensions of the disputes. Here the South China Sea is interpreted as encompassing not only the South China Sea proper, but also the Gulf of Thailand. When looking at generalisations, references are also made to areas bordering the area in focus. A conscious effort in this volume is to avoid the tendency of media reports and many scholarly works of reducing all the dimensions of the disputes to strategic issues. Many aspects of the disputes emphasise the common interests rather than reinforcing the common perception of the setting as a zero-sum game over sovereignty and energy resources.
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