Loyola University Chicago Loyola eCommons Dissertations Theses and Dissertations 2015 Learning from the UN Preventive Deployment Mission in Macedonia: Nothing Fails Like Success? Mary Frances Rosett Lebamoff Loyola University Chicago Follow this and additional works at: https://ecommons.luc.edu/luc_diss Part of the Military and Veterans Studies Commons Recommended Citation Lebamoff, Mary Frances Rosett, "Learning from the UN Preventive Deployment Mission in Macedonia: Nothing Fails Like Success?" (2015). Dissertations. 1951. https://ecommons.luc.edu/luc_diss/1951 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Theses and Dissertations at Loyola eCommons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Dissertations by an authorized administrator of Loyola eCommons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0 License. Copyright © 2015 Mary Frances Rosett Lebamoff LOYOLA UNIVERSITY CHICAGO LEARNING FROM THE UN PREVENTIVE DEPLOYMENT MISSION IN MACEDONIA: NOTHING FAILS LIKE SUCCESS? A DISSERTATION SUBMITTED TO THE FACULTY OF THE GRADUATE SCHOOL IN CANDIDACY FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY PROGRAM IN POLITICAL SCIENCE BY MARY FRANCES ROSETT LEBAMOFF CHICAGO, ILLINOIS DECEMBER 2015 Copyright by Mary Frances Rosett Lebamoff, 2015 All rights reserved. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The unwavering support, encouragement, and guidance through thick and thin of this dissertation’s committee, Alexandru Grigorescu, Ph.D., John Allen “Jay” Williams, Ph.D., and Peter Schraeder, Ph.D., made this dissertation possible. It was never intended to take as long as it has, yet they always offered encouragement and wise counsel when lesser souls would have given up on me completely. Peter Sanchez, Ph.D., Graduate Program Director, and Patricia Mooney-Melvin, Ph.D., Associate Dean of the Graduate School, generously advocated completion extensions so I could conclude this undertaking. I wish there were better and finer words to express my appreciation for you all. Without your support, this dissertation would not have come to fruition. I remain deeply grateful to private funding sources, the Arthur J. Schmitt Fellowship grant, and to the Inter-University Seminar on Armed Forces and Society for the support of IUS colleagues and its research assistance. During initial research in Macedonia in 2006, I was fortunate to have extraordinary guidance: I thank Dr. Gjorge “Gole” Ivanov (now President of the Republic of Macedonia), who first discussed UNPREDEP with me and inspired the questions asked in this dissertation, Major General Mitre Arsovski of the ARM, General Mile Manolev of the Macedonian Air Force, and my incomparable translators, Jovanka Oncevska and Anna Mukoska, along with their families. There are many more in Macedonia who were kind, generous and endlessly forbearing with me; I wish I could iii acknowledge all of them. Know that you, whether named or not, are part of my fondest memories of the Republic and its peoples. Joseph Drew, Ph.D. (long-time editor of the Comparative Civilizations Review) and Michael Caruso, Ph.D., my brilliant colleagues at University of Maryland University College, took on mentoring, review and editing for several months. “Thank you” is entirely inadequate to express my gratitude and deep respect for these two gentlemen. Dr. Drew is an extraordinary guide, and I am humbled he offered his generous attention to my dissertation. Drs. Drew and Caruso brought seemingly endless patience, tremendous thoughtfulness, and unflinching focus to this project. The Brigadier Generals of UNPREDEP, Bent Sohnemann, Bo Wranker, Juha Engstrom and Ove Johnny Strömberg, along with other members of the Finnish, Swedish, Norwegian and Danish militaries, were amazing in interviews; I have rarely had such positive, honest and open experiences. I am deeply grateful that several of the former Brigadier Generals and others were willing to share selections from their personal UNPREDEP files, and to generously, openly and fully answer the broad variety of questions asked at interviews, to engage wholly with discussions that resulted, and to be responsive beyond interview dates. Without this kind of support and transparency, this study would have had considerably less evidence and meaningful insights. My special gratitude goes to BG Bent Sohnemann and his wife Goranka of Denmark who welcomed me into their home in Varde in both 2009 and 2010. As a result, his private stock of T’Ga za Jug was considerably diminished. BG Sohnemann’s honesty, humor and incisiveness made interviews with him a pleasure, and truly priceless. His willingness to track down MG Gunnar Lange of KFOR, and then to drive me to Blåvand iv on the coast, so the Major General and I could discuss KFOR and UNPREDEP, was remarkably generous, and typical of this kind and thoughtful man. Thanks to Bent Sohnemann, I have had a General cook meals for me, an authentic UNPREDEP blue beret (one of his own with emblem), and an UNPREDEP mug. Colonel Kalle Liesinen and his wife, Tuuli, challenged my thinking at their summer home near Kuovola, Finland during a long weekend’s stay there. Colonel Liesinen’s insights as a former Battalion Commander were of the highest quality. Juha Engstrom and his wife opened their doors to me at their summer home near Mäntsälä, Finland. BG Engstrom’s responses and statements regarding UNPREDEP helped shape this dissertation in many ways. BG Ove Johnny Strömberg, UNPREDEP’s final BG, drove into Oslo, Norway – what was to be a ninety-minute or so interview turned into over four hours, during which he provided resources and information not accessible elsewhere. My appreciation of his efforts to meet with me and of the material he offered knows no bounds. At the Swedish National Defense Academy in Stockholm, BG Bo Lennart Wranker took time out of a crowded schedule to meet two separate times. His well- organized thoughts and clear, concise answers to questions were invaluable. His referral to BG Jan-Gunnar Isberg, considered a national treasure and legend in Sweden because of his peacekeeping experience, was also rewarding. Both BG Wranker and BG Isberg had lengthy assignments, BG Isberg two years with UNPROFOR/M, and BG Wranker, fourteen months with UNPREDEP, along with extensive tours of duty and command in other UN Peacekeeping missions. v For nearly four years, BG Finn Særmark-Thomsen led UNPROFOR/M, and thereafter tracked UNPREDEP closely. Meeting with him for an entire half-day at the historic Svanemǿlle Barracks of the Danish Military Academy in Copenhagen was very fruitful. His incisive comments and responses gave additional depth to this research. UNPREDEP’s longest-serving SRSG, the distinguished diplomat Henryk J. Sokalski, generously agreed to two interviews at his home in Warsaw, Poland in 2010. He and his wife, Maria, were generous hosts. Mr. Sokalski, shrewd and insightful, offered new depth and enhanced comprehension of UNPREDEP in the field, of UN HQ, and dealings between the field and HQ. I consider them my esteemed friends. I am also deeply appreciative to the United Nations Archives for granting me access to some UNPREP files prior to their public availability. Without friends and colleagues here in the U.S. urging me on and becoming nearly as fascinated with Macedonia as I am, this project would not have been completed: I especially thank my children, and my friends Edgar Jorge Marcolin, Ph.D., and Ryan Jay Burch, M.A. Major Per Iko (Sweden) offered his recollections of the dismantling of UNPREDEP in 1999. “The highway north out of Thessaloniki was clogged with NATO heading into Macedonia; the [same] highway south was backed up with UNPREDEP heading out of Macedonia.” The image Major Iko evoked remains with me. vi For my extraordinary father, the late Alexander Thomas Lebamoff, M.D., and my remarkable children, Joshua, Andrew, Lanora, Damien and Mary-Claire I opened almost every meeting with UNPREDEP military leaders quite positively, I thought: “Gentlemen, we appear to have suffered another success.” Henryk J. Sokalski 14 July 2010 Warsaw, Poland TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ............................................................................................... iii LIST OF TABLES ...............................................................................................................x LIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................................................... xi LIST OF ACRONYMS .................................................................................................... xii ABSTRACT ..................................................................................................................... xiv CHAPTER I: INTRODUCTION .........................................................................................1 CHAPTER II: CONSIDERING MAJOR THEORIES: PREVENTIVE DEPLOYMENT’S NON-RECURRENCE ..................................................................23 CHAPTER III: RESEARCHING THE SINGULAR CASE OF UNITED NATIONS PREVENTIVE DEPLOYMENT ..................................................................................49 CHAPTER IV: THE BALKANS, THE FORMER YUGOSLAVIA AND PREVENTIVE DIPLOMACY/DEPLOYMENT IN MACEDONIA: THE CASE OF UNPREDEP .....67 CHAPTER V: EVIDENCE AND VOICES: EXPERTS’ KEY POINTS IN UNPREDEP ANALYSES ....................................................................................................................91 CHAPTER VI: The UNPREDEP