India Update Market Data As on Sep 2, 2013 INDICES C Ontents % Chg
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September 3, 2013 India Update Market data as on Sep 2, 2013 INDICES C ontents % chg (DoD) Page 2 Infosys (Rs3,080): CEO meeting takeaways Buy BSE Sensex 18886 1.4 S&P CNX Nifty 5551 1.4 Page 4 Recent reports/updates BSE 100 5529 1.5 BSE 200 2200 1.5 Highlights OVERSEAS MARKETS# % chg Sector/event Impact (DoD) Dow Jones 14810 (0.2) TECHNOLOGY: Demand has picked up in the financial services sector (~34% of Infosys’ Nasdaq Comp. 3590 (0.8) S&P 500 1633 (0.3) Infosys – revenues) across the US and Europe. However, Infosys is not ready to Hang Seng 22419 1.1 Company update call it a trend yet. Spends are happening across the imperatives of cost Nikkei 13953 2.8 takeout, risk/compliance/regulation and new technology initiatives, with ADVANCES/DECLINES (BSE) vendor consolidation helping Infosys as well. Retail continues to remain Group A B S Advances 154 1,071 160 strong though manufacturing demand is impacted due to the absence of Declines 43 672 156 large deals in the segment and discretionary spends forming ~42% of Unchanged 1 112 26 Infosys’s revenues from the segment as against ~34% on a FII TURNOVER (BSE+NSE)* companywide basis. Communication continues to be challenged given (Rs mn) Bought Sold Net that Wireline still constitutes 70% of the portfolio with the better-growth 64,160 65,170 (1,000) Cable and Wireless segments constituting a lower 30% of revenues. We reset our USD/INR assumptions to RS61.6 and Rs60 for FY14 and FY15 NEW HIGHS AND LOWS (BSE) Group A B S respectively (v/s Rs57.7 and Rs56 earlier) and accordingly raise our EPS High 4 21 27 and target price as well. Our target price of Rs3,417 discounts our FY15 Lows 3 98 26 EPS of Rs200.9 by 17 times. CURRENCY US$1 = Rs65.86 News Snippets *FII turnover (BSE + NSE) as on September 1, 2013 Economy • The eight core industries’ output growth came in at 3.1 per cent in July, lower than 4.5 per cent growth recorded in July last year. But, the latest monthly performance is a four-month high and much better than the 0.1 per cent growth seen in June this year. (Business Line) • In a move aimed at combating the negative perceptions hanging over public-private partnership projects, the Planning Commission has asked key infrastructure ministries to set up dedicated cells within three months for better monitoring and enforcement of such ventures. (The Economic Times) Sectoral • Passenger car and two-wheeler exporters have made the most of currency depreciation and posted significant increases in foreign sales in August, which helped them partially offset subdued domestic sales. (Business Standard) Corporate • All six national level commodity exchanges will have to register their existing warehouses with Warehousing Development & Regulatory Authority (WDRA) by the end of this year to ensure the quality and quantity of produce lying with them. (The Economic Times) Market movement over last fortnight Volumes in Rs mn (BSE and NSE) Advances & Declines ratio (BSE) 19000 5800 200,000 2.0 BSE NSE BSE (LHS) NSE (RHS) 1.8 5700 160,000 18700 1.6 5600 1.4 120,000 1.2 18400 5500 1.0 80,000 0.8 5400 0.6 18100 5300 40,000 0.4 0.2 17800 5200 0 0.0 19/8 21/8 23/8 25/8 27/8 29/8 31/8 2/9 19/8 21/8 23/8 25/8 27/8 29/8 31/8 2/9 19/8 21/8 23/8 25/8 27/8 29/8 31/8 2/9 ICICI Securities Limited, ICICI Centre, H.T. Parekh Marg, Churchgate, Mumbai – 400 020, India. Phone: +91 22 2288 2460/70 Fax: +91 22 2288 2448 ICICI Securities Inc, 461 Fifth Avenue, 16th Floor, New York, NY 10017. Phone: +1 212 921 2344 / +1 212 453 6704 Fax: +1 212 453 6710 India Update, September 3, 2013 ICICI Securities Infosys (Buy) TECHNOLOGY COMPANY UPDATE CEO meeting takeaways Rs3,080 Kuldeep Koul (+91 22 6637 7573) [email protected] Varun Sharma (+91 22 6637 7180) [email protected] Target price Rs3,417 We hosted Mr. S.D. Shibulal, CEO & MD - Infosys, for investor meetings. Following are the key takeaways: Target price revision Rs3,417 from Rs3,070 Table 1: Valuations summary Y/E EPS P/E EV/E Mar (Rs) (x) (x) Price (02/9/13) (Rs) 3,080 2012 145.5 21.2 14.3 M.Cap. (Rs bn) 17,60 52 wk Range (Rs) 3116/2212 2013 164.9 18.7 13.3 M.Cap (US$ mn) 27.1 Dividend yield FY14E (%) 2.0 2014E 188.1 16.4 11.1 Shares Out (mn) 571.4 BSE Sensex 18886 2015E 200.9 15.3 10.5 Free Float (%) 84.0 Source: Company data, I-Sec Research • Demand pick up in financial services; Communication continues to be weak given constrained portfolio. Demand has picked up in the financial services sector (~34% of Infosys’ revenues) across the US and Europe. However, Infosys is not ready to call it a trend yet. Spends are happening across the imperatives of cost takeout, risk/compliance/regulation and new technology initiatives, with vendor consolidation helping Infosys as well. Retail continues to remain strong though manufacturing demand is impacted due to the absence of large deals in the segment and discretionary spends forming ~42% of Infosys’s revenues from the segment as against ~34% on a companywide basis. Communication continues to be challenged given that Wireline still constitutes 70% of the portfolio with the better-growth Cable and Wireless segments constituting a lower 30% of revenues. • No meaningful pick-up in legacy enterprise discretionary spends. Infosys has not seen a significant pick-up in legacy enterprise spends around ERP, CRM, SCM, etc. Consulting and System Integration constitutes a larger ~34% of the portfolio for Infosys as against an average of 19% for the industry. The company includes Cloud and Mobility-related revenues, where there is decent traction, within the PPS segment (Products, Platforms, Solutions), and not CSI. Margins on CSI are around 200-300bps higher than the company average for Infosys. • Deal pipeline strong in BITS but revenue traction is margin-dilutive. Infosys has renewed its focus on the Business IT space as evidenced from the US$1bn TCV of deal wins in H2FY13 with another US$552mn TCV won in Q1FY14. The interesting thing is that a large part of these deals are incremental and represent new business as against renewals which Infosys includes in the deal TCV as well. Large deal pipeline remains very strong with the company’s win ratios on the up as well. An extended partner ecosystem ensures that Infosys can participate in some of the asset-intensive deals as well without having to put its own balance sheet to use (e.g., NTT was an asset partner on the Harley Davidson deal). However, the challenge within the BITS space is that the large deals are margin-negative in the first few quarters and will only return company average margins through the lifecycle of the deal, and that too if Infosys is able to drive improvements in automation/industrialisation given the managed services nature of the engagements. 2 India Update, September 3, 2013 ICICI Securities • High Investments in PPS; project durations extended. Infosys is investing heavily in developing its Products and Platforms (seven products and seven platforms currently) segment with the margins in PPS being a negative ~3% in FY13. Also, though the TCV booked is already ~US$725mn, the average duration is 8-10 years in PPS vs an average of 4-5 years in BITS. • Net, net demand looks good, but margin pressures may persist. From our understanding, Infosys should be able to achieve the top end of its revenue guidance of 6-10% for FY14 (1.5% CQGR), given pick-up in BFSI, its largest vertical. However, there may not be a meaningful upside given the still subdued discretionary environment. Also, we think that 1) still subdued discretionary spends and 2) highly competitive BITS space, where new deals (which are meaningfully margin-dilutive in early stages) are just beginning to ramp up, should put some pressure on the margins over the next few quarters on a constant currency basis, in addition to the impact of wage hikes in Q2FY13. Though increase in utilisation and rationalisation of onsite cost structure are the key near-term levers with industrialization and growth to buffer profitability from the longer-term perspective, we choose to be conservative in our own modelling regarding margins. We model EBIT margin of 24.8% for FY14 (USD/INR of 61.6) and 24.5% for FY15 (USD/INR of 60). We have assumed wage impact of ~250bps in FY15 as well. • Maintain BUY; Raise target to Rs 3,417. We reset our USD/INR assumptions to RS61.6 and Rs60 for FY14 and FY15 respectively (v/s Rs57.7 and Rs56 earlier) and accordingly raise our EPS and target price as well. Our target price of Rs3,417 discounts our FY15 EPS of Rs200.9 by 17 times. Details in our report ‘CEO meeting takeaways’ dated September 2, 2013. 3 India Update, September 3, 2013 ICICI Securities Recent reports/updates Analyst Company/Sector Date Kuldeep / Varun Infosys: CEO meeting takeaways Sep 2 Kuldeep / Varun MphasiS: Better than expectations Aug 30 Rohit / Prolin Oil&Gas sector: Time for radical measures Aug 26 Nimit / Jeetendra Bajaj Corp: NOMARKS acquisition - good synergy in medium term Aug 26 Abhijit / Urvil NMDC: Supporting props for our valuation story Aug 23 Vinod/Ravi Sundar/Sandeep India Strategy: Consensus earning revisions - decay continues Aug 22 Abhijit / Urvil Hindalco: Annual report analysis – long way to go… Aug 20 Prakash / Vivek/Hardik Voltas: Another disappointing quarter Aug 18 Abhijit / Urvil Nalco: Weak performance, feeble outlook Aug 16 Abhijit / Urvil SAIL: Results in line, execution remains key Aug 14 Santanu / Ujjwal /Shashin LIC Housing Finance: A strong showing Aug 14 Rohit / Prolin GSPL: Volumes crucial for rerating Aug 14 Sanket Maheshwari M&M: Business as usual