The Power to Transform the South West: How to Meet the Region’S Energy Needs Through Renewable Energy Generation

The power to transform the South West: How to meet the region’s energy needs through renewable energy generation

Researched and written by The Resilience Centre Commissioned by Molly Scott Cato MEP Funded by the Green/EFA group in the European Parliament

This document has been commissioned by Molly Scott Cato Member of European Parliament (MEP) under formal request M/2015/043. It was funded by the Green/EFA group in the European Parliament.

Disclaimer: This report has been produced by The Resilience Centre Limited within the terms of the contract with the client and taking account of the resources devoted to it by agreement with the client. We disclaim any responsibility to the client and others in respect of any matters outside the scope of the above. This report is confidential to the client and we accept no responsibility of whatsoever nature to third parties to whom this report, or any part thereof, is made known. Any such party relies on the report at their own risk. The Resilience Centre Limited Registered in England No. 6788756 Registered Office: The Woodlands, Woodside, Woolaston, Lydney, GLOS, GL15 6PS Copyright is the property of The Resilience Centre Ltd and no part may be copied or reproduced in any format without prior permission.

Foreword by the Molly Scott Cato,Green MEP for South West England

I am delighted to present this report from the Resilience Centre because it helps us to demonstrate in hard numbers just how much better a society powered by clean, green energy would really be. While we can have our long-running arguments about the aesthetic value of wind turbines or the environmental impact of tidal lagoons, what we really need to know is whether we can provide the electricity we need using renewable sources and what impact this will have on our economy and society. The rigorous analysis provided by Andrew Clarke and his team makes it clear that the answers to these questions are very positive indeed. The report focuses on two main issues: Can we deal with the baseload question, or can renewable sources provide the electricity we need even when the wind is not blowing and the sun is not shining? The answer to this question is a resounding yes. By a combination of energy saving, better-quality homes and improved methods of storage we need not fear the lights going out. Neither do we need to turn to the risky and expensive nuclear option. What will be the economic impact of the renewable energy transition? How can we pay for the infrastructure we need and what will be the impact on jobs? Here again, the evidence is extremely encouraging. Locally produced renewable energy will bring a huge economic boost, particularly to some of our more deprived rural areas, potentially generating £4.3 Billion a year for the South West economy or the equivalent of a 4% growth in the regional economy every year. We have reached the end-game of our battle to tackle the most dangerous threat facing humanity: the threat that we are changing our climate in such a way that we will no longer be able to live in comfort on our shared planet. This is the conflict between big technology, owned by mega-corporations, and focused on generating profits and the locally based, clean and green renewable technologies. As with so many aspects of our economic life, this report makes clear that the right decision from an environmental perspective is also the decision that will ensure greater economic justice and help us build flourishing local economies. So the conclusion of the report is a hugely encouraging one: here in the South West of England we have some of the world's best renewable energy resources, in great abundance and great variety, capable of boosting our rural economies and ensuring our energy security. All that is holding us back from the renewable revolution is a failure of political will and a refusal by our politicians to progress beyond the fossil-fuel past into the sunny uplands of our shared renewable future.

Executive summary

This report was commissioned to study the ability of the South West of England to provide a reliable base load energy from renewable sources. For the purposes of the overall study, the South West of England is taken to form one of nine official regions of England, totalling some 23,800km2 and comprising Gloucestershire, Bristol (West of England), Wiltshire (Including Swindon), Somerset, Dorset, Devon, Cornwall and the Isle of Scilly. This report forms a summary document that draws together the wealth of information that has been produced on onshore and offshore marine energy potential for the region in recent years. The review was focused on sourcing studies that have characterised the status of the renewable energy industry across the South West, including: • Data on the potential resource (to understand how much energy may be available) • The likely constrained potential for each technology broken down into each County (with some overlap here between counties for offshore marine resources) • The technology or developers with an interest in the region (to understand what type and scale of project may come forward) • Anticipated project cost and associated economic benefit to each county and the region (to understand the potential relative cost-benefit of such schemes) • Projections on the number of jobs created per technology and for every 1000MWhrs (GWhr) of energy generated • The percentage of each county’s total energy demand that can be met by each technology • The total potential amount of energy generated by each technology broken down into thermal and electrical energy for each county and the region.

Key headline messages from the report:

1. The South West region has the renewable energy resources to meet more than 100% of its total energy needs, including replacement of liquid fuels and electrifying railways.

2. We could generate 67,448,817 MWhrs/year of renewable energy as 42,690,806 MWehrs of electrical energy and 24,758,010 MWth of thermal energy (67,449 GWhrs/year) from 31,804 MW of Generating Capacity (thermal & electricity).

4. 34% of energy needs can be met from marine and inshore estuarine tidal energy, and 66% from onshore renewables.

5. To enable the devenopment of renewable energy generation we would suggest installing 12,051 MWe capacity of smart grid energy storage to balance intermittency of renewables and allow demand led local smart grids to be developed.

6. This energy storage would provide 19,281,000 MWhrs/year or 29% of energy as demand required.

7. An estimated 122,000 full time equivalent jobs could be created if we deliver and maintain this renewable energy generation regionally, an increase in employment of 4.5% for the region.

8. We estimate that the capital cost of delivering such a programme would be £59,484m, including £8,784m on Smart Grid energy storage. This is 72% of equivalent nuclear costs for delivering the same amount of energy.

9. The equivalent cost of delivering 100% of the South West energy needs from nuclear is £82,510m or 138% of the equivalent cost of delivering with renewable energy.

10. Renewables costs provide for a local smart grid with energy storage and flexibility to meet spikes and drops in demand and reduce need for large scale pylons and transmission systems.

11. Renewables costs include £500m/year investment in local/regional grid reinforcement and upgrade, equivalent to an increased annual expenditure on grid upgrade and management of 64% each year.

12. The potential annual value added for delivering the constrained renewable energy resources of the South West would be £4,286m/year, equivalent to an annual growth rate of 4.0% year on year and equivalent to 48% of the total value of the tourism industry and 87% of the aerospace and defence industry in the South West.

A list of data sources that have informed this report can be found in the Appendices.

Contents Foreword by the Molly Scott Cato,Green MEP for South West England ...... 3 Executive summary ...... 4 Key headline messages from the report: ...... 4 Contents ...... 6 1 Introduction ...... 10 2 Cornwall & Isles of Scilly ...... 11 2.1 Introduction and key facts...... 11 2.2 Renewable Generating Potential ...... 11 2.3 The economics of renewable energy generation in Cornwall ...... 13 2.4 Key Drivers...... 13 Political ...... 14 Geography ...... 14 Economic ...... 14 Technical...... 14 2.5 Detailed Information ...... 15 3 Devon ...... 17 3.1 Introduction and key facts...... 17 3.2 Renewable Generating Potential ...... 17 3.3 The economics of renewable energy generation in Devon...... 19 3.4 Key Drivers...... 19 Political ...... 19 Geography ...... 20 Economic ...... 20 Technical...... 20 3.5 Detailed Information ...... 21 4 Dorset...... 23 4.1 Introduction and key facts...... 23 4.2 Renewable Generating Potential ...... 23 4.3 The economics of renewable energy generation in Dorset ...... 24 4.4 Key Drivers...... 25 Political ...... 26 Geography ...... 26 Economic ...... 26

Technical...... 26 4.5 Detailed Information ...... 26 5 Gloucestershire ...... 29 5.1 Introduction and key facts...... 29 5.2 Renewable Generating Potential ...... 29 5.3 The economics of renewable energy generation in Gloucestershire...... 31 5.4 Key Drivers...... 31 Political ...... 31 Geography ...... 31 Economic ...... 32 Technical...... 32 5.5 Detailed Information ...... 33 6 Somerset ...... 35 6.1 Introduction and key facts...... 35 6.2 Renewable Generating Potential ...... 35 ...... 36 6.3 The economics of renewable energy generation in Somerset ...... 36 6.4 Key Drivers...... 37 Political ...... 37 Geography ...... 38 Economic ...... 38 Technical...... 38 6.5 Detailed Information ...... 39 ...... 40 7 West of England ...... 41 7.1 Introduction and Key Facts ...... 41 7.2 Renewable Generating Potential ...... 41 7.3 The economics of renewable energy generation in West of England...... 43 7.4 Key Drivers...... 43 Political ...... 43 Geography ...... 44 Economic ...... 44 Technical...... 44 7.5 Detailed Information ...... 45

8 Wiltshire ...... 47 8.1 Introduction and key facts...... 47 8.2 Renewable Generating Potential ...... 47 8.3 The economics of renewable energy generation in Wiltshire ...... 49 8.4 Key Drivers...... 49 Political ...... 49 Geography ...... 49 Economic ...... 50 Technical...... 50 8.5 Detailed Information ...... 50 9.0 South West Summary ...... 53 9.1 Introduction and key facts...... 53 9.2 Renewable Generating Potential ...... 54 9.3 The Economics of renewable energy generation in South West England ...... 55 9.4 Key Drivers...... 57 Political ...... 57 Geography ...... 57 Economic ...... 57 Business Rates ...... 58 Construction Industry ...... 58 Financial Sector ...... 58 Grid Investment and Reinforcement ...... 58 9.5 Additional findings...... 58 Distribution of Resources ...... 58 Energy Storage Delivering Base Load Energy ...... 58 References ...... 61 Documents and Links ...... 61 Research reports & literature ...... 61 Websites accessed ...... 64 Appendices...... 64

1 Introduction

This report presents the findings of work undertaken by both The Resilience Centre and GoBe Consultants looking into the renewable energy generating potential of the South West of England, and in particular the potential for a mix of renewable energy to generate baseload energy for the region. The work has pulled together previous studies as well as drawing heavily on the experience of the two teams managing and developing projects across the spectrum of renewable energy in the region, ranging from the Atlantic Array 1.2GW to the award winning Resilient Energy community based renewable energy model. For the purpose of this report, the definition of the South West region includes Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly, Devon, Gloucestershire, Somerset, West of England (comprising the unitary authorities of South Gloucestershire, Bristol, Bath and North East Somerset and North Somerset), Dorset and Wiltshire (including Swindon). The work has used, where possible, local authority reports on their own renewable resources, and supplemented this information with industry held data. Where information has been poor or absent, other national data sets have also been used, as well as looking at spatial analysis of resources and pro-rata data from neighbouring counties and authorities. Many of the constraints around developing renewable energy potential relate to political will rather than technical or environmental constraints, which can now be overcome by sympathetic design, improved engineering and control of generating equipment. The remainder of this report is structured as follows: Section 2: Cornwall Section 3: Devon Section 4: Dorset Section 5: Gloucestershire Section 6: Somerset Section 7: West of England Section 8: Wiltshire Section 9: South West Summary In addition specific reference material is provided in Appendices available at www.mollymep.org.uk/2015/04/17/power-to-transform Appendices include: • Renewable Energy Capacity in the South West: Marine Context • Western Power Distribution Long Term Development Statement for South West & Recent Announcements

2 Cornwall & Isles of Scilly 2.1 Introduction and key facts Cornwall has significant energy-generating Facts and figures potential, with an excellent and complimentary An overview of Cornwall spread of renewable energy resources. These resources can provide sufficient diversity of • Population from the last census generation to allow for meeting baseload energy (2011): 532,300 demands as well as sudden demand increases. • Area of Cornwall: 3,563km2 • Cornwall, with the exception of the Isles of Scilly, is governed by a single unitary authority. 161% of Cornwall’s total future energy needs could be produced through renewable energy generation. Current & future energy consumption

• Heating and electrical energy The combination of steady and reliable deep hot consumption (Industrial & rock geothermal energy and sustainable coppice Residential): 6,829,046 MWhrs biomass energy generation fits well with the more • Current total transport liquid variable marine, wind and solar energy generation fuels: 3,732,385 MWhrs capabilities. Likewise on-farm and waste biomass • Total current gross energy used: anaerobic digestion can provide useful infill energy 10,561,431 MWhrs generation as well as playing a significant role in • 40% powering down between meeting localised short increases in demand at food now and 2050: processing and agricultural sites. -4,224,572 MWhrs 2.2 Renewable Generating Potential • Revised projected gross energy

requirements for Cornwall: Cornwall has the potential to develop an estimated 6,336,859 MWhrs 2,508 MWe of electrical and 1,466 MWth of thermal Total amount of potential renewable energy generating capacity. energy which could be generated: This capacity has the potential to generate 161% of • Gross energy: 10,185,264 the total future energy needs for Cornwall, MWhrs which is broken down assuming a 40% reduction in energy needs due to as follows: energy efficiency measures by 2050. • Electrical energy: 6,303,219 This energy could be generated through a broad mix MWehrs of different technologies. On and offshore wind • Thermal energy: 3,882,045 could make up 23%, hot rock geothermal 17%, solar

MWthhrs pv and thermal 14%, biomass 13%, wave power • Energy storage requirements: 13% and air and ground heat pumps 11%. 1,390 MW

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Cornwall - Potential Renewable Energy Mix by %

Solar PV, 10% Wave Power, 13%

Solar Thermal, 4%

Sewage Gas, 0% OffShore Wind, 9%

Biomass, 13% Tidal Stream, 6%

Anaerobic Digestors, 2%

Hydroelectric , 0% Air & Ground Heat Pumps, 11% Onshore Wind, 15%

Hot Rock Geothermal, 17%

How this was calculated For this projection the following parameters were used to calculate renewable energy generation potential: Solar Irradiation: 1200Wm2

The variability of renewable energy means that renewable energy technologies do not operate at maximum output all the time, as the sun is not always shining, nor the wind always blowing. To estimate the potential generation of each renewable technology a capacity factor is needed. This calculates the actual amount of energy likely to be generated, compared to maximum generating potential. The following renewable energy capacity factors have been used for this estimate: Onshore wind – 30%, CHP from Coppiced Biomass – 35%, Electric & 60% Thermal, Air & Ground source heat pumps – 17%, Hydroelectric – 66%, Anaerobic digestors – 68%, Tidal stream – 35%, Tidal lagoon – 35%, Offshore wind – 35%, Wave power – 30%.

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2.3 The economics of renewable energy generation in Cornwall

Cornwall is richly endowed with a great variety Realising the renewable energy capability in of renewable energy resources and has benefited Cornwall has the potential to create over from considerable commitment to developing 16,500 jobs these resources both as a result of the foresight of local politicians and the availability of EU funds.

Full development of these resources could lead to the creation of 16,537 full-time equivalent jobs; something particularly important to a county with relatively low income per capita at present. The direct financial benefit to the Cornish economy has been calculated at £659m per year, representing an annual increase of 9.4% p.a. in the size of the county’s economy. The bar chart reproduced as Figure 2.3, below, gives a detailed breakdown of the economic benefits arising from realising Cornwall’s potential to generate renewable energy.

Figure 2.3 Cornwall - Key Annual Economic Benefits from 100% Renewable Energy in £Millions/year

£300 £290 £280 £270 £260 £250 £240 £230 £220 £210 £200 £190 £180 £170 £160 £150 £140 £130 £120 £110 £100 £90 £80 £70 £60 £50 £40 £30 £20 £10 £0 Reversing Salaries Equipment Construction Professional Grid Investment Business Local Lease Surplus Leakage in Created & Capital Services Investment Returns Rates Community Payments Energy Bills (incl. O&M) Donations

2.4 Key Drivers

It should be noted that renewable energy development in Cornwall has received excellent support from the progressive unitary authority and Cornwall has one of the best overall strategys for developing renewables in the South West. However, its remoteness from the national grid does create a barrier to the export of surplus energy from the county. More positively, the dual 400kV network at Indian Queens puts Cornwall in a strong position to export surplus power provided peaks in energy generation constraining grid capacity can be overcome. The key drivers affecting the delivery of Cornwall’s renewable-energy-generating Cornwall has one of the best strategies for potential can be broken down into four key developing renewables in the South West

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areas; political will, geography, economic and technical factors. Political Political will in Cornwall towards deployment of renewable energy is considered to be positive and one of the best of any county in the South West. This has encouraged many developers to invest in the county. The key here has been the development of positive forward-looking policies that give long-term stability to the planning and permission process. The key to further progress will need consistency of policy to embrace the opportunities that renewables present. Geography The county has significant potential for renewable energy generation based on its position on the South Westerly end of the South West peninsula. It has significant wind-energy resources, both onshore and offshore, as well as excellent marine tidal flow and wave-energy potential, albeit no commercial marine renewable energy has yet been deployed. The marine energy potential will increase significantly with the development of floating wind-energy technology which can be used in Cornwall’s deeper waters. Cornwall’s greatest untapped potential lies in its hot rock geothermal energy potential which we estimate could provide 17% of the renewable energy mix, the largest proportion of any technology. However, this technology requires both significant research and development as well as capital investment in a small number of large strategic projects. It also needs a stable and long-term political commitment to be realised.

Economic The economic benefit from deployment of a Cornwall has the potential to become a renewable energy programme to utilise the significanmt exporter of energy readily available energy resources in Cornwall over a 25 year period is significant. Renewable energy could contribute an additional £659m to the Cornish economy, an enstimated increase of 9.4% a year. This could be increased if the resources are developed using local ownership and investment models based around community investment. Such community benefit societies, where local people own and operate projects in a mutual ownership structure, ensure greater local returns. In addition, if Cornwall were to follow national guidance with a 40% reduction in its own energy demands through embracing low-energy housing and electrification of its transport network it could become a significant exporter of energy, generating 161% of its future energy needs from renewable sources. The potential income to Cornwall Council in business rates alone across the county from renewable energy schemes is expected to be up to £22m per year, if all renewable-energy- generating potential is realised within the constraints of existing planning legislation. Technical Whilst there remain some technical barriers to deployment of renewable energy, most of these can be overcome by sustainable design and management. The key technical obstacle facing the renewables industry in Cornwall is the lack of grid capacity. This is exacerbated by a combination of rapid development of major land based solar photovoltaic projects without any energy storage to balance peak production combined with what appears to be a prioritising of The Resilience Centre 14 For Molly Scott Cato MEP

available resources for grid upgrade works onto the nuclear new-build programme at Hinkley. A committed programme of electrification of the transport network along with introduction of local Smart Grid energy storage systems will go a long way to overcome the current grid constraints. Investment in the deep hot rock geothermal programme would yield considerable benefit Smart Grid energy storage systems could help both financially and to the energy security of solve the lack of grid capacity in Cornwall Cornwall, although it requires significant investment in up-front development costs. 2.5 Detailed Information The following Table 2.5 summarises the renewable energy generating potential for Cornwall as well as identifying, as of June 2014, the currently installed renewable energy generating capacity in the county.

Cornwall - Total Potential Renewable Energy Generation in MWhrs

1,800,000 1,700,000 1,600,000 1,500,000 1,400,000 1,300,000 1,200,000 1,100,000 1,000,000 900,000 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000

ENERGY GENERATEDINMWHRS 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 Air & Solar Hot Rock Onshore Hydroelectr Anaerobic Tidal OffShore Wave Solar PV Sewage Gas Biomass Ground Thermal Geothermal Wind ic Digestors Stream Wind Power Heat Pumps Energy in MWhrs 1,040,820 356,820 20,498 1,362,897 1,157,228 1,708,200 1,477,882 40,471 173,448 613,200 919,800 1,314,000

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Table 2.5 Cornwall - Potential Constrained Renewable Energy Generation for Cornwall All Technologies

Cornwall Renewable Energy Generation Potential & Contribution

Potenti Potenti al al Current Current Therma Electric Electric Therma l Cap. in Cap. In Cap. In l Cap. In MWth MWe % MWe MWth (Cornwa (Cornwa Met Jobs Thermal Electrical (RegenS (RegenS ll ll By Total Per Capital Energy Energy Total Energy W, W, Council, Council, Each Jobs Per 1000 Costs in Produced in Produced in Produced in Tech. 2014) 2014) 2012) 2012) Tech. Tech. MWhrs £M MWthhrs /yr Mwehrs /yr MWhrs/yr

Solar PV 227 0 0 913 10% 1,873 1.80 £730 0 1,040,820 1,040,820

Solar 0 3 313 0 Thermal 4% 1,606 4.50 £313 356,820 0 356,820

Sewage 1 1 2 2 Gas 0% 31 1.50 £6 9,986 10,512 20,498

Biomass 0 37 161 69 13% 3,271 2.40 £645 1,150,883 212,014 1,362,897

Air & Ground Heat 0 9 777 0 Pumps 11% 3,125 2.70 £311 1,157,228 0 1,157,228

Hot Rock Geotherm 0 0 200 100 al1 17% 854 0.50 £1,800 1,138,800 569,400 1,708,200

Onshore 85 0 0 397 Wind 15% 3,399 2.30 £794 0 1,477,882 1,477,882

Hydro. 2 0 0 7 0% 53 1.30 £84 0 40,471 40,471

Anaerobic 0 0 13 20 Digestors 2% 260 1.50 £60 68,328 105,120 173,448

Tidal 0 0 0 200 Stream 6% 429 0.70 £700 0 613,200 613,200

OffShore 0 0 0 300 Wind 9% 644 0.70 £930 0 919,800 919,800

Wave 0 0 0 500 Power 13% 920 0.70 £2,000 0 1,314,000 1,314,000

Energy Storage & 0 0 0 1,390 Smart Grids 73 0.10 £889 0

100 315 49 1,466 2,508 Totals % 16,537 1.6 £9,263 3,882,045 6,303,219 10,185,264

1 Deep Geothermal Review Study, Final Report, Department of Energy & Climate Change. October 2013 The Resilience Centre 16 For Molly Scott Cato MEP

3 Devon 3.1 Introduction and key facts Devon consists of eights districts; Exeter, East Facts and figures Devon, Mid Devon, North Devon, Torridge, South An overview of Devon Hams, Teignbridge and West Devon, as well as two unitary authorities; Plymouth and Torbay. • Population from the last census (2011): 1,135,700 Devon has significant renewable energy generating • Area of Devon: 6,707km2 potential. This complimentary spread of renewable energy resources could provide sufficient diversity Current & future energy consumption of generation to allow for meeting baseload energy • Heating and electrical energy demands, provided significant local Smart Grid consumption (Industrial & energy storage is installed. Residential): 13,778,704 MWhrs • Current total transport liquid fuels: 8,038,802MWhrs 97% of total future energy needs for Devon could be • Total current gross energy used: produced through renewable energy generation. 21,817,506 MWhrs • 40% Powering Down between now and 2050: Devon has the highest demand for local energy -8,727,002 MWhrs storage, due to the more variable nature of its • Revised projected gross Energy renewable energy sources. We therefore estimate requirements for Devon: that Devon requires a minimum of 2,952 MW of 13,090,504 MWhrs energy storage to realise its potential. Total amount of potential renewable Solar photovoltaics and biomass Combined Heat energy which could be generated: and Power (CHP), including anaerobic digestion, can provide useful infill energy generation as well • Gross energy: 12,642,468 as playing a significant role for meeting localised MWhrs which is broken down short increases in load demand, especially at food as follows; processing and agricultural sites. • Electrical energy: 9,212,995 3.2 Renewable Generating Potential MWehrs

• Thermal energy: 3,429,473 Devon has the potential to develop 2,508 MWe of MWthhrs electrical and 1,466 MWth of thermal energy • Energy storage requirements: generating capacity. This capacity has the ability to 2,952 MW generate 97% of total future energy needs for

Devon assuming a 40% reduction in energy needs due to energy efficiency measures by 2050.

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Devon - Potential Renewable Energy Mix by %

OffShore Wind, 29%

Wave Power, 5%

Tidal Lagoon, 7% Solar PV, 15%

Tidal Stream, 1%

Anaerobic Digestors, 1%

Hydroelectric , 0% Solar Thermal, 2%

Sewage Gas, 0%

Onshore Wind, 12% Biomass, 10%

Air & Ground Heat Pumps, 17%

How this was calculated For this projection the following parameters were used to calculate renewable energy generation potential: Solar Irradiation: 1200Wm2

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3.3 The economics of renewable energy generation in Devon

Full development of Devon’s renewable resources could lead to the creation of 21,0672 full-time equivalent jobs in the county, representing a 3.7% increase in total employment. The direct financial benefit to the Devon economy has been calculated at £886m per year, representing an annual increase of 7.6% per year in the size of the county’s economy. The bar chart as Figure 3.3 below provides a detailed breakdown of the economic benefits arising from realising Devon’s renewable energy generating potential.

Figure 3.3 Devon - Key Annual Economic Benefits of 100% Renewable Energy in £Millions/year

£370 £360 £350 £340 £330 £320 £310 £300 £290 £280 £270 £260 £250 £240 £230 £220 £210 £200 £190 £180 £170 £160 £150 £140 £130 £120 £110 £100 £90 £80 £70 £60 £50 £40 £30 £20 £10 £0 Reversing Salaries Equipment Economic Professional Economic Investment Business Local Lease Surplus Leakage in & Capital Benefit of Services Benefit from Returns Rates Community Payments Energy Bills Construction (incl. O&M) Grid Donations Investment

3.4 Key Drivers

Renewable energy development in Devon has received mixed support owing to the differing political complexion of its individual district and unitary authorities. The key drivers affecting the delivery of Devon’s renewable energy generating potential can be broken down into four key areas; political will, geography, economic and technical factors. Political Political will in Devon is heavily dependent on the political make-up of the particular District and the political emphasis of each council with regard to the balance of energy supply from either renewable or fossil fuels and nuclear power. The key to successful deployment of

2 Low carbon jobs: The evidence for net job creation from policy support for energy efficiency and renewable energy, UK Energy Research Centre November 2014 The Resilience Centre 19 For Molly Scott Cato MEP

renewable energy in Devon in the future is the commitment to forward-looking policies that give long-term stability to the planning and permission process. Geography The county has significant potential for renewable energy generation based on its position on the South West peninsula. It has significant wind-energy resources, both onshore and offshore, as well as excellent marine tidal flow, tidal lagoon, and wave-energy potential, although no commercial marine energy technologies have yet been deployed. The marine energy potential will increase significantly with the development of floating wind-energy technologies for use in Devon’s deeper waters. Devon’s greatest untapped potential lies in offshore wind which we estimate Offshore wind represents Devon’s greatest untapped could provide 29% of the renewable resource with the potential to provide almost a third energy mix, the largest proportion of any of renewable energy generation. technology. Economic The economic benefit from deployment of a renewable energy programme to meet Devon’s energy needs is significant, at an estimated 7.6% annual growth in economic capacity for the county, contributing an additional £886m per year . This could be increased if the resources are developed using local ownership and investment models based around community investment. In addition, if Devon were to follow national guidance with a 40% reduction in its own energy demands through embracing low-energy housing and electrification of its transport network, it could meet 97% of its future energy needs from renewables. The potential income to local authorities in business rates alone across the county from renewable energy schemes is predicted to be around £28m per year if all renewable energy generating potential is realised within current planning constraints. Technical Whilst there remain some technical barriers to deployment of renewable energy most of these can be overcome by sustainable design and management. The key technical obstacle facing the renewables industry in Devon is a result of limited grid capacity. This is likely to be exacerbated by a combination of rapid development of large scale solar photovoltaic projects without any energy storage to balance peak production, and a focus of resources on grid upgrade works linked to the nuclear new build programme. A committed programme of electrification of the transport network along with introduction of local Smart Grid energy storage systems will go a long way to overcome the current grid constraints.

Significant investment in and political backing for Investment in the floating offshore wind floating offshore wind technology would yield technology could yield considerable considerable financial benefit and provide energy benefit both financially and to the energy security. security of Devon, although this will require significant investment in up front development costs and political backing.

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3.5 Detailed Information The following Table 3.5 summarises the renewable energy generating potential for Devon as well as identifying, the currently installed renewable energy generating capacity in the county, as of June 2014.

Devon - Total Potential Renewable Energy Generation in MWhrs

3,600,000 3,400,000 3,200,000 3,000,000 2,800,000 2,600,000 2,400,000 2,200,000 2,000,000 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 Generation inMWhrs 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 Air & Solar Sewage Ground Onshore Hydroelec Anaerobic Tidal Tidal OffShore Wave Solar PV Biomass Thermal Gas Heat Wind tric Digestors Stream Lagoon Wind Power Pumps Energy in MWhrs 1,845,660 266,760 39,289 1,243,920 2,126,624 1,574,172 46,253 90,491 153,300 919,800 3,679,200 657,000

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Potential Constrained Renewable Energy Generation for Devon All Technologies

Devon - Renewable Energy Generation Potential & Contribution

Current Current install Install Potenti Electric Thermal Potenti al Cap. Cap. al Cap. Electric % Total Thermal Electrical MWe MWth Thermal Cap. Energy Jobs Energy Energy (RegenS (RegenS MWth Mwe Met By Created Jobs Per Capital Produced Produced Total Energy W, W, (Norton, (Norton, Each Per 1000 Costs in MWthhrs/ Mwehrs/y Produced in Technology 2014) 2014) 2011) 2011) Tech. Tech. MWhrs £M yr r MWhrs/yr

Solar PV 208.4 0.0 0.0 1,619.0 15% 3,322 1.80 £1,295 0 1,845,660 1,845,660

Solar 0.0 3.6 390.0 0.0 Thermal 2% 1,200 4.50 £390 266,760 0 266,760

Sewage Gas 1.2 2.2 2.5 4.5 0% 59 1.50 £14 12,483 26,806 39,289

Biomass 0.0 43.4 200.0 80.0 10% 2,985 2.40 £800 998,640 245,280 1,243,920

Air & Ground 0.0 11.3 1,428.0 0.0 Heat Pumps 17% 5,742 2.70 £571 2,126,624 0 2,126,624

Onshore 77.5 0.0 0.0 599.0 Wind 12% 3,621 2.30 £1,198 0 1,574,172 1,574,172

Hydro 7.1 0.0 0.0 8.0 electric 0% 60 1.30 £96 0 46,253 46,253

Anaerobic 7.1 1.6 5.0 11.0 Digestors 1% 136 1.50 £33 24,966 65,525 90,491

Tidal Stream 0.0 0.0 0.0 50.0 1% 107 0.70 £175 0 153,300 153,300

Tidal Lagoon 0.0 0.0 0.0 300.0 7% 644 0.70 £1,200 0 919,800 919,800

OffShore 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,200.0 Wind 29% 2,575 0.70 £3,720 0 3,679,200 3,679,200

Wave Power 0.0 0.0 0.0 250.0 5% 460 0.70 £1,000 0 657,000 657,000

Energy Storage & 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,951.9 0 0 Smart Grids 0% 155 0.10 £1,947 0

Total Capacity & Energy Yields 301.4 62.1 2,026 4,121.5 100% 21,067 1.6 £12,439 3,429,473 9,212,995 12,642,468

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4 Dorset 4.1 Introduction and key facts

Facts and figures Dorset consists of the county council of Dorset and two unitary authorities, Bournemouth and Poole. An overview of Dorset Dorset has reasonable renewable energy generating • Population from the last census potential, albeit heavily reliant on offshore wind to (2011): 754,460 achieve its potential particularly given the planning 2 • Area of Dorset: 2,653km constraints and politics regarding onshore wind Current & future energy consumption • Heating and electrical energy 101% of total future energy needs for Dorset could be consumption (Industrial & produced through renewable energy generation. Residential): 9,222,865 MWhrs • Current total transport liquid fuels: 4,254,793 MWhrs generation in much of the county. • Total current gross energy used: With adequate Smart Grid energy storage the more 13,477,658 MWhrs variable offshore and onshore wind combined with • 40% powering down between solar photo-voltaics generation can provide a now and 2050: significant proportion of Dorset’s energy generating -5,391,063 MWhrs capacity. Coupled with the roll out of ground and air • Revised projected gross Energy source heat pumps, this could go a long way to meet requirements for Dorset: Dorset’s renewable energy needs. 8,086,595MWhrs 4.2 Renewable Generating Potential Total amount of potential renewable Dorset has the potential to develop an estimated energy which could be generated: 2,135 MWe of electrical and 1,860 MWth of thermal energy generating capacity. • Gross energy: 8,169,168 MWhrs which is broken down as This capacity has the potential to generate 101% of follows; total future energy needs for Dorset, assuming a • Electrical energy: 40% reduction in energy needs due to energy efficiency measures by 2050. 4,940,196MWehrs • Thermal energy: 34% of this energy could be generated by offshore 3,228,972MWthhrs wind, with a further 12% from onshore wind. A • Energy storage requirements: further 50% could be made up from a combination 1,727MW of air and ground source heat pumps, biomass and solar energy.

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Dorset - Potential Renewable Energy Mix by %

Solar PV, 9% Solar Thermal, 2%

Sewage Gas, 0%

OffShore Wind, 34%

Biomass, 15%

Tidal Stream, 1%

Anaerobic Digestors, 2% Air & Ground Heat Hydroelectric , 0% Pumps, 24%

Onshore Wind, 12%

How this was calculated For this projection the following parameters were used to calculate renewable energy generation potential: Solar Irradiation: 1150Wm2

4.3 The economics of renewable energy generation in Dorset

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Developing renewable energy generation in Dorset could lead to the creation of the equivalent of 15,125 full time skilled jobs. This represents a 4% increase in jobs across the county. In addition, the economy of Dorset would see financial benefits of £514m per year if renewables were prioritised for investment, a 4.3% growth in the total economy of Dorset. The bar chart in Figure 4.3 below shows a detailed breakdown of the economic benefits arising from realising Dorset’s renewable energy generating potential.

Figure 4.3 Dorset - Key Annual Economic Benefits of 100% Renewable Energy in £Millions/year

£215 £210 £205 £200 £195 £190 £185 £180 £175 £170 £165 £160 £155 £150 £145 £140 £135 £130 £125 £120 £115 £110 £105 £100 £95 £90 £85 £80 £75 £70 £65 £60 £55 £50 £45 £40 £35 £30 £25 £20 £15 £10 £5 £0 Economic Economic Capital Economic Professional Grid Investment Business Local Lease Surplus Benefit from Benefit from Investment Benefit of Services (incl. Investment Returns Rates Community Payments Reversing Salaries Construction O&M) Donations Leakage in Created Energy Bills

4.4 Key Drivers In Dorset renewable energy development has received limited The limited public sector support for realising renewable public sector support, and has the energy capability in Dorset demonstrates the importance second lowest installed electrical of political will in realising renewable energy potential. renewable energy capacity per head of population for counties in the South West at 121W/head of population. This is in contrast to the more coordinated approach from progressive unitary authorities such as Cornwall which generates 591W/head of population, demonstrating the importance of political will for the future of renewable energy generation. The key drivers affecting the delivery of renewable energy generating potential for Dorset can be broken down into four factors, political will, geography, economic and technical.

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Political Political will in Dorset is likely to be heavily influenced by its community structure as indicated in the demographics for the county with 26.9% of the population being 65+ compared with 17.4% for the rest of the UK. This has an influence on the political structure and support for progressive positive policies encouraging development of its renewable resources. One key aspect to the successful deployment of renewable energy in Dorset will be engaging with the older generation to appreciate the benefits of positive policies towards renewables, particularly ones that give long term stability to the planning and permitting process.

Geography The county has modest potential for At least a third of Dorset’s renewable energy capability renewable energy generation with the could be met by offshore wind. key resource being offshore wind on its southerly coast. Currently plans are being considered for the proposed Navitus Bay project, which would play a key role in delivering Dorset’s renewable energy potential. This is currently with the Secretary of State for consideration. We estimate that Dorset’s offshore wind potential could meet 34% of its future generation capacity. Economic Developing renewable energy to meet Dorset’s energy needs would lead to an estimated 4.3% increase in total economic capacity for the county, contributing an additional £514m per year. If local community ownership and investment models, such as community benefit societies, were used then this could be increased. In addition, if Dorset was to follow national guidance with a 40% reduction in its own energy demands through embracing low energy housing and electrification of its transport network, it could generate 101% of its future energy needs from renewables and be totally self-sufficient. The potential income to local authorities in business rates alone across the county from renewable energy schemes is predicted to be £18m per year if all renewable energy generating opportunities are realised. Technical The key technical obstacle facing the renewables industry in Dorset is considered to be political will in line with public opinion and an appreciation of the benefits of a renewable energy revolution to the local economy. Likewise, any local technical and grid constraints could be overcome by a committed programme of electrification of the transport network along with introduction of local Smart Grid energy storage systems. Investment in the floating offshore wind area would also yield considerable benefit both financially and to the energy security of Dorset, although it requires significant investment in up front development costs and political backing. 4.5 Detailed Information The following Table 4.5 summarises the renewable energy generating potential for Dorset as well as identifying the currently installed renewable energy generating capacity in the county, as of June 2014.

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Dorset - Total Potential Renewable Energy Generation in MWhrs

2,900,000 2,800,000 2,700,000 2,600,000 2,500,000 2,400,000 2,300,000 2,200,000 2,100,000 2,000,000 1,900,000 1,800,000 1,700,000 1,600,000 1,500,000 1,400,000 1,300,000

MW Capacity 1,200,000 1,100,000 1,000,000 900,000 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 Air & Solar Sewage Ground Onshore Hydroelec Anaerobic Tidal OffShore Solar PV Biomass Thermal Gas Heat Wind tric Digestors Stream Wind Pumps Energy in MWhrs 710,125 203,606 27,182 1,245,040 1,972,401 985,500 32,724 141,211 91,980 2,759,400

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Table 4.5 Potential Constrained Renewable Energy Generation for Dorset All Technologies

Dorset, Bournemouth & Poole Renewable Energy Generation Potential & Contribution

Current Current install Install Potential Potential Electrical Electric Thermal Thermal Install % Total Thermal Energy Total Cap. in Cap. in Cap. in Electric Energy Jobs Energy Produced Energy MWe MWth MWth Cap. MWe Met By Created Jobs Per Capital Produced in Produced (RegenSW, (RegenSW, (RegenSW, (RegenSW, Each Per 1000 Costs in MWthhrs/ MWehrs/ in Technology 2014) 2014) 2012) 2012) Tech. Tech. MWhrs £M yr yr MWhrs/yr

Solar PV 84 0 0 650 9% 1278 1.80 £520 0 710,125 710,125

Solar 2 0 325 0 Thermal 2% 916 4.50 £325 203,606 0 203,606

Sewage Gas 2 1 3 2 0% 41 1.50 £7 13,482 13,701 27,182

Biomass 0 16 200 80 15% 2988 2.40 £801 999,539 245,501 1,245,040

Air & Ground 0 8 1324 Heat Pumps 0 24% 5325 2.70 £530 1,972,401 0 1,972,401

Onshore 1 0 450 Wind 0 12% 2267 2.30 £900 0 985,500 985,500

Hydro 0 0 0 6 electric 0% 10 0.30 £68 0 32,724 32,724

Anaerobic 4 3 8 17 Digestors 2% 212 1.50 £51 39,946 101,266 141,211

Tidal Stream 0 0 0 30 1% 64 0.70 £105 0 91,980 91,980

OffShore 0 0 0 900 Wind 34% 1932 0.70 £2,790 0 2,759,400 2,759,400

Energy Storage & 1727 Smart Grids 91 0.10 £966 0

Total Capacity & Energy Yields 92 28 1860 2135 65% 15124 1.7 £7,062 3,228,972 4,940,196 8,169,168

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5 Gloucestershire 5.1 Introduction and key facts Gloucestershire consists of six districts; City of Facts and figures Gloucester, Cheltenham, Tewkesbury, Stroud and An overview of Gloucestershire Forest of Dean. The unitary authority of South Gloucestershire can also be considered part of • Population from the last census Gloucestershire, but in this study it has been included (2011): 858,300 in the West of England section along with Bristol. • Area of Gloucestershire: 3,150km2 Gloucestershire has significant renewable energy generating potential with an excellent and Current & future energy consumption complimentary spread of renewable energy • Heating and electrical energy resources. consumption (Industrial & Residential): 8,669,549 MWhrs • Current total transport liquid 101% of total future energy needs for Gloucestershire fuels: 5,303,532 MWhrs could be produced through renewable energy generation. • Total current gross energy used: 13,973,081 MWhrs • 40% Powering Down between These can provide sufficient diversity of generation to now and 2050: allow for meeting baseload energy demands, -5,589,232 MWhrs provided significant local Smart Grid energy storage • Revised projected gross energy is installed. The combination of predictable tidal flow requirements for and tidal lagoon coupled with onshore wind and Gloucestershire: 8,383,849 controllable coppiced biomass Combined Heat and MWhrs Power would provide Gloucestershire with a very adaptable renewable energy portfolio. Total amount of potential renewable energy which could be generated: 5.2 Renewable Generating Potential • Gross energy: 8,445,400 MWhrs Gloucestershire has the potential to develop 2,384 which is broken down as MWe of electrical and 1,695 MWth of thermal energy follows; • Electrical energy: 5,265,074

MWehrs Almost a quarter of Gloucestershire’s energy needs could • Thermal energy: 3,180,326 be met by tidal lagoons.

MWthhrs • Energy storage requirements: generating capacity. This capacity has the potential 1,305 MW to generate all of the future energy needs of Gloucestershire at 101%, assuming a 40% reduction in energy needs due to energy efficiency measures by 2050.

23% of this energy could be generated through

development of tidal lagoons.

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Gloucestershire - Potential Renewable Energy Generation Mix by %

Solar PV, 11%

Solar Thermal, 3% Tidal Lagoon (estuary), 23% Sewage Gas, 0%

Tidal Stream (inshore), 1% Biomass, 18%

Anaerobic Digestors, 3%

Hydroelectric , 0%

Onshore Wind, 18%

Air & Ground Heat Pumps, 22%

How this was calculated For this projection the following parameters were used to calculate renewable energy generation potential: Solar Irradiation: 1050Wm2

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5.3 The economics of renewable energy generation in Gloucestershire Full development of Gloucestershire’s renewable energy potential could create 16,868 full time equivalent skilled jobs, representing a 4% increase in employment. Gloucestershire’s economy would also benefit by £450m per year, representing a 3.8% annual growth in the economy of the county. The bar chart as Figure 5.3 below provides a detailed breakdown of the economic benefits arising from realising Gloucestershire’s renewable energy generating potential.

Figure 5.3 Gloucestershire - Annual Economic Benefits from 100% Renewable Energy in £Millions/year £125 £120 £115 £110 £105 £100 £95 £90 £85 £80 £75 £70 £65 £60 £55 £50 £45 £40 £35 £30 £25 £20 £15 £10 £5 £0 Leakage in Salaries Equipment & Construction Professional Grid Investment Business Rates Local Lease/Royalties Surplus Energy Bills Capital Services (incl. Investment Returns Community O&M) Donations 5.4 Key Drivers Whilst Gloucestershire has excellent renewable energy resources, it has not had the political will behind the industry to take maximum advantage of these resources. Published figures as of June 2014, indicate that Gloucestershire has some of the lowest levels of installed electrical renewable energy capacity of any county in the South West at 64W per head of population. The key drivers affecting the delivery of renewable energy generating potential for Gloucestershire can be broken down into political will, geography, economic and technical factors. Political Political will in Gloucestershire, in common with a number of other counties in the South West, is heavily dependent on the political make up of the particular District and the political agendas towards deployment of renewable energy versus backing for fossil fuels and nuclear. The key to successful deployment of renewable energy in Gloucestershire is the development of positive forward looking policies that give long term stability to the planning and permitting process. Geography The county has significant potential for renewable energy generation, Tidal lagoons represent Gloucestershire’s greatest based on its position on the Severn untapped renewable asset. estuary as well as benefiting from considerable wind, solar and biomass The Resilience Centre 31 For Molly Scott Cato MEP

resources. Gloucestershire has significant marine tidal flow and tidal lagoon potential. In the past this has been overlooked for the more grandiose Severn barrage schemes, that have distracted from the real potential of smaller lagoons. The geography of the Severn estuary is one where considerable climate change impacts are already being felt including considerable loss of intertidal, salt marsh and agricultural land due to increased erosion of the foreshore. Gloucestershire’s greatest untapped potential lies in tidal lagoons, onshore wind and biomass which we estimate could provide 60% of the renewable energy mix. However, this requires stable politics, consistently supportive policies and subsidies to encourage the further investment required to help realise its potential. Economic There are significant economic benefits from deployment of a renewable energy programme to meet Gloucestershire’s energy needs. Development of renewable energy could produce an estimated annual growth of 3.8% per year in economic capacity for the county, contributing an additional £450m per year. This could be increased with the introduction of local ownership and investment models based around community investment. In addition, if Gloucestershire was to follow national guidance with a 40% reduction in its own energy demands through embracing low energy housing and electrification of its transport network it could generate 101% of its future energy needs from renewables and be totally self sufficient. The potential income to local authorities in business rates alone across the county from renewable energy schemes predicted to be around £19m per year if all constrained renewable energy generating potential is realised. Technical The key technical obstacle facing the renewables industry in Gloucestershire is grid capacity, although much of this is down to political will and enabling grid investment for renewable energy as a priority over nuclear. Significant resources are currently prioritised into grid upgrade works for the nuclear new build programme at Hinkley. A committed programme of electrification of the transport network, along with introduction of local Smart Grid energy storage systems will go a long way to overcome the current grid constraints. Investment in the tidal lagoon area would yield considerable benefit both financially and to the energy security of Gloucestershire, although it requires significant investment in up front development costs and political backing. Political will is required to change the current reactive system of grid planning to one of progressive Progressive forward planning to upgrade the grid would forward planning to allow renewable help Gloucestershire meet its renewable energy energy generating potential to be generating potential. realised in Gloucestershire and across the South West.

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5.5 Detailed Information The following Table 5.5 summarises the renewable energy generating potential for Gloucestershire as well as identifying the currently installed renewable energy generating capacity in the county, as of June 2014.

Gloucestershire - Total Potential Renewable Energy Generation in MWhrs

2,000,000 1,900,000 1,800,000 1,700,000 1,600,000 1,500,000 1,400,000 1,300,000 1,200,000 1,100,000 1,000,000 900,000 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 MWhrs ofEnergyProduced 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 Air & Tidal Tidal Solar Sewage Ground Onshore Hydroelec Anaerobic Solar PV Biomass Stream Lagoon Thermal Gas Heat Wind tric Digestors (inshore) (estuary) Pumps Energy in MWhrs 918,698 223,345 25,360 1,526,430 1,865,968 1,550,520 24,543 262,450 85,848 1,962,240

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Table 5.5 Potential Constrained Renewable Energy Generation for Gloucestershire All Technologies

Gloucestershire Renewable Energy Generation Potential & Contribution

Current Current Potenti Potenti Installed Installed al al Thermal Electric Thermal Thermal Electric % Total Energy Total Capacity Capacity Cap. Cap. Energy Jobs Produced Electrical Energy MWe MWth MWth MWe Met By Created Jobs Per Capital in Energy Produced (RegenSW, (RegenSW, (Entec, (Entec, Each Per 1000 Costs in MWthhrs/ Produced in in Tech. 2014) 2014) 2011) 2011) Tech. Tech. MWhrs £M yr MWehrs/yr MWhrs/yr

Solar PV 44.28 0 0 921 11% 1654 1.80 £737 0 918,698 918,698

Solar 1.02 0 224 0 Thermal 3% 1005 4.50 £224 223,345 0 223,345

Sewage 1.252 0 1.5 3 Gas 0% 38 1.50 £9 7,490 17,870 25,360

Biomass 0 30 205 164 18% 3663 2.40 £656 1,023,606 502,824 1,526,430

Air & Ground 0 8.76 1253 0 Heat Pumps 22% 5038 2.70 £501 1,865,968 0 1,865,968

Onshore 1.24 0 590 Wind 0 18% 3566 2.30 £1,180 0 1,550,520 1,550,520

Hydro 0.21 0 0 4.2 electric 0% 7 0.30 £51 0 24,543 24,543

Anaerobic 6.56 2.44 12 34 Digestors 3% 394 1.50 £102 59,918 202,531 262,450

Tidal Stream 0 0 28 (inshore) 0 1% 60 0.70 £98 0 85,848 85,848

Tidal Lagoon 0 0 640 (estuary) 0 23% 1374 0.70 £2,560 0 1,962,240 1,962,240

Energy Storage & 1305 Smart Grids 69 0.10 £1,326

Total Capacity &

Energy Yields 55 41 1695 2384 100% 16868 1.7 £7,444 3,180,326 5,265,074 8,445,400

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6 Somerset 6.1 Introduction and key facts For the purpose of this report Somerset is considered to Facts and figures be the area consisting of the five key districts; Mendip, An overview of Somerset: Sedgemoor, South Somerset, Taunton Deane and West Somerset. • Population from the last census (2011): 538,104 The county has significant renewable energy generating • Area of Somerset: 3,445km2 potential. The excellent and complimentary spread of renewable energy resources can provide sufficient Current & future energy consumption: diversity of generation to allow for meeting baseload • Heating and electrical energy energy demands as well as sudden demand increases. consumption (Industrial & Residential): 5,141,830 MWhrs • Current total transport liquid 152% of total future energy needs for Somerset could be fuels: 7,465,168 MWhrs produced through renewable energy generation. • Total current gross energy used in Somerset: 12,606,998 The combination of steady tidal flow, tidal range and MWhrs sustainable coppice biomass energy generation fits well • 40% powering down between with the more variable wind and solar energy generation now and 2050: capabilities. Likewise, on-farm and waste biomass -5,042,799 MWhrs anaerobic digestion can provide useful infill energy • Revised projected gross energy generation as well as playing a significant role for requirementsfor Somerset: meeting localised short increases in demand at food 7,564,199 MWhrs processing and agricultural sites. Total amount of potential renewable energy which could be generated: 6.2 Renewable Generating Potential

• Gross energy: 11,514,879 Somerset has the potential to develop an estimated MWhrs which is broken down 3,646 MWe of electrical and 1,320 MWth of thermal as follows: energy generating capacity. • Electrical energy: 8,685,252 This capacity has the potential to generate 152% of the MWehrs total future energy needs for Somerset, assuming a 40% • Thermal energy: 2,829,627 reduction in energy needs due to energy efficiency MWthhrs • Energy storage requirements: 2,176 MW Almost half of Somerset’s future energy needs could be met with offshore wind and tidal.

measures by 2050. This energy could be generated from 29% offshore wind, 17% from tidal lagoons and 15% from biomass. Solar, wavepower and air and ground source heat pumps could

also contribute significantly.

Somerset - Potential Renewable Energy Generation Mix by %

Wave Power, 6% Solar PV, 11%

Solar Thermal, 1%

Biomass, 15% OffShore Wind, 29%

Air & Ground Heat Pumps, 10%

Onshore Wind, 5%

Tidal Lagoon, 17% Anaerobic Digestors, 4% Tidal Stream, 1%

6.3 The economics of renewable energy generation in Somerset

Developing the renewable energy generating Realising the renewable energy capability in potential of Somerset could be a significant boost to Somerset has the potential to create over the economy and create tens of thousands of jobs in 16,500 jobs the county. Renewable energy could see £816m a year in direct financial benefits to the Somerset economy, representing 9.3% annual growth rate. 16,581 jobs could be created, representing a 6.4% increase across the county. The Figure 6.3 below provides a detailed breakdown of the economic benefits arising from realising Somerset’s renewable energy generating potential.

Figure 6.3 Somerset - Key Annual Economic Benefits from 100% Renewable Energy in £Millions/Year £370 £360 £350 £340 £330 £320 £310 £300 £290 £280 £270 £260 £250 £240 £230 £220 £210 £200 £190 £180 £170 £160 £150 £140 £130 £120 £110 £100 £90 £80 £70 £60 £50 £40 £30 £20 £10 £0 Reversing Salaries Equipment & Construction Professional Grid Investment Business Rates Local Lease Surplus Economic Created Capital Services (incl. Investment Returns Community Payments Leakage in O&M) Donations Energy Bills

6.4 Key Drivers

The key drivers affecting the delivery of renwable energy generating potential for Somerset can be broken down into four key areas; political will, geography, economic and technical factors. It should be noted that renewable energy development in Somerset in particular has been markedly affected by the proposals for developing new build nuclear at Hinkley Point C, which seems to have had a chilling effect on renewable energy deployment in the county. Political Political will is considered the single most constraining barrier to deployment of renewable energy within the county. Many of the technical and economic challenges can be overcome by a positive political environment encouraging developers to invest in renewables. The key here is developing positive forward-looking policies that give long term stability to the planning and permitting process. Without these developers are risking significant upfront investment with little chance of success. The overtly positive Government support for the the new build nuclear programme is viewed by The new nuclear proposal at Hinkley has had some as a one stop shop for delivering both a chilling effect on renewable energy carbon reductions and employment in the deployment in Somerset county. This has had a negative impact on the renewable energy industry in Somerset. With only a limited resource assessment having been undertaken to define the renewable energy potential for the county and lack of clear positive planning policy towards renewables.

This is exemplified by the amount of currently installed renewable energy capacity in West Somerset district which is around 0.1 kWe of installed capacity per head of population. This is less than half (45%) of the average currently installed renewable energy capacity per head for the South West. Geography The county has significant potential for renewable energy generation based on its position on the north westerly edge of the South West peninsula. It has significant wind energy resources both onshore and offshore as well as reasonably shallow offshore coastal zones that permit economic deployment of offshore wind. This potential will increase significantly with the development of floating wind energy. Likewise the excellent tidal range in the Severn estuary and the Bridgewater Bay provides significant potential for tidal lagoon and tidal flow energy generation, none of which has been exploited to date. The county has some of the greatest potential for sustainable coppice wood biomass production which, The Severn estuary and Bridgewater Bay when combined with the latest Combined Heat and provide huge potential for tidal energy Power generating technology, could generate 12% of the counties renewables potential. Somerset has a long history of coppicing going back 3,000+ years. DEFRA’s own research identifies Somerset as one of the areas with the highest potential coppice yields in the UK at 12-15 Ordinary Dry Tonnes per Hectare, due mainly to shallow water tables and favourable climatic conditions optimal for growth. Extensive coppice restoration of some of the upland areas would also have benefits by reducing flood runoff from increased rainfall intensity due to climate change and could play a significant role in reducing flooding in lowland areas across the county. Economic The economic benefit from deployment of a renewable energy programme to meet Somerset’s energy needs is significant at an estimated 9.3% annual growth in economic capacity for the county contributing an additional £816m per year. This could be increased with the introduction of local ownership and investment models based around community investment. These could include community benefit societies established where local people own and operate projects in a mutual society structure. The potential income to local authorities across the county in business rates from renewable energy Somerset has the potential to become a schemes is expected to be around £25m per year if significant exporter of energy. all constrained renewable energy generating potential is realised. If Somerset was to follows national guidance and achieve a 40% reduction in its own energy demands through embracing low energy housing and electrification of its transport network, it could generate as much as 152% of its future energy needs from renewables. This would enable the county to become a significant exporter of renewable energy. Technical Whilst some technical barriers to deployment of renewable energy remain, most of these can be overcome by sustainable design and management. The key technical obstacle facing the renewables industry in Somerset is grid capacity, although much of this is down to political will and the current

prioritising of major of resources for grid upgrade works associated with the nuclear new build programme. A committed programme of electrification of the transport network along with introduction of local Smart Grid energy storage systems would go a long way to overcoming the current grid constraints. Political will is, however, required to change the current reactive system of grid planning to one of progressive forward planning to allow renewable energy generating potential to be realised in Somerset and across the South West. 6.5 Detailed Information

The following Table 6.5 summarises the renewable energy generating potential for Somerset as well as identifying the currently installed renewable energy generating capacity in the county as of June 2014. Table 6.5 Somerset - Potential Constrained Renewable Energy Generation All Technologies

Somerset - Potential Renewable Energy Resources & Benefits Current Current Cap. Potential No of Jobs Cap. in MWth Cap. Potential % Jobs Per Electrical MWe (Regen MWth Cap. MWe Met Created 1000 Capital Thermal Energy Energy Total Energy (RegenS SW, (CamCo, (CamCo, By Per MWhr Costs in Produced Produced Produced Tech. W, 2014) 2014) 2009) 2009) Tech. Tech. s £M MWthhrs /yr Mwehrs /yr MWhrs/yr Solar PV 133 0 0 1220 11% 2190 2 £976 0 1,216,472 1,216,472 Solar Thermal 2 0 237 0 1% 639 5 £237 142,110 0 142,110 Sewage Gas 1 7 2 14 1% 140 2 £42 9,986 83,395 93,382 Biomass 0 27 271 109 15% 4052 2 £1,086 1,355,384 332,901 1,688,286 Air & Ground 0 9 - Heat Pumps 776 10% 3120 3 £310 1,155,713 0 1,155,713 Onshore Wind 2 0 0 200 5% 1209 2 £400 0 525,600 525,600 Hydro Electric 0.7 0 0 7.0 0% 53 1.3 £84 0 40,471 40,471 Anaerobic Digestors 10 6 33 57 4% 762 2 £172 166,433 341,272 507,705 Tidal Stream 0 0 0 50 1% 107 1 £175 0 153,300 153,300 Tidal Lagoon 0 0 0 640 17% 1374 1 £2,560 0 1,962,240 1,962,240 OffShore Wind 0 0 0 1100 29% 2361 1 £3,410 0 3,372,600 3,372,600 Wave Power 0 0 0 250 6% 460 1 £1,000 0 657,000 657,000 Energy Storage & 0 2176 Smart Grids 115 0.1 £1,246 0 0 0 100 149 49 1320 3646 Totals % 16581 2 £11,698 2,829,627 8,685,252 11,514,879

Somerset - Total Potential Renewable Energy Generation in MWhrs

3,400,000 3,200,000 3,000,000 2,800,000 2,600,000 2,400,000 2,200,000 2,000,000 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 MWhrs ofEnergyProduced 200,000 0 Air & Anaerobi Solar Sewage Ground Onshore Hydro Tidal Tidal OffShore Wave Solar PV Biomass c Thermal Gas Heat Wind Electric Stream Lagoon Wind Power Digestors Pumps Energy in MWhrs 1,216,472 142,110 93,382 1,688,286 1,155,713 525,600 40,471 507,705 153,300 1,962,240 3,372,600 657,000

7 West of England 7.1 Introduction and Key Facts

For the purpose of this report the West of England Facts and figures covers the areas surrounding Bristol and includes the An overview of West of England unitary authorities of the City of Bristol, Bath and North East Somerset, North Somerset and South • Population from the last census Gloucestershire. (2011): 1,081,700 • Area of West of England: West of England has significant renewable energy generating potential. Its complimentary spread of 1,333km2 resources could provide sufficient diversity of Current & future energy consumption generation to allow for meeting baseload energy demands provided significant local Smart Grid energy • Heating and electrical energy storage is installed and local grid investment is consumption (Industrial & planned in. Residential): 13,351,400 MWhrs • Current total transport liquid fuels: 7,932,000 MWhrs 79% of total future energy needs for West of England • Total current gross energy used: could be produced through renewable energy 21,283,400 MWhrs generation, even in this area of high population density. • 40% powering down between now and 2050: -8,513,360 MWhrs West of England has the highest population density • Revised projected gross energy in the South West and, as such, is a net importer of requirements: 12,770,040 energy as well as relying heavily on air and ground source heat pumps to provide space heating. It also MWhrs has the slightly unusual benefit of modest deep hot Total amount of potential renewable rock geothermal beneath Bristol and Bath. Such energy which could be generated: areas include an area of Bristol known as Hotwells and a deep (hot thermal) well once installed at the • Gross energy: 10,114,544 old Canons March Gasworks site. MWhrs which is broken down as follows: 7.2 Renewable Generating Potential • Electrical energy: 5,393,832 West of England has the potential to develop 2,352 MWehrs MWe of electrical and 2,676 MWth of thermal • Thermal energy: 4,720,712 energy generating capacity. This capacity has the MW hrs th potential to generate 79% of total future energy • Energy storage requirements: needs for West of England assuming a 40% 1,076 MW reduction in energy needs due to energy efficiency measures by 2050.

Over 70% of this energy could be generated using a combination of tidal lagoons, air and ground source heat pumps and biomass.

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West of England - Potential Renewable Energy Mix by % Solar PV, 9% OffShore Wind, 5% Solar Thermal, 2%

Sewage Gas, 2%

Tidal Lagoon (estuary), 27% Biomass, 15%

Tidal Stream (inshore), 1% Anaerobic Digestors, 1% Hydroelectric , 1%

Onshore Wind, 5% Air & Ground Heat Hot Rock Geothermal, Pumps, 31% 2%

How this was calculated For this projection the following parameters were used to calculate renewable energy generation potential: Solar Irradiation: 1050Wm2

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7.3 The economics of renewable energy generation in West of England Developing renewable energy generation in West of England could create 19,101 full time equivalent skilled jobs, representing a 3.6% increase in jobs. The financial benefits to the West of England’s economy would be £596m per year, representing a 1.4% annual growth rate in the total economy. The bar chart in Figure 7.3 below shows a detailed breakdown of the economic benefits arising from realising West of England’s renewable energy generating potential.

Figure 7.3 West of England - Key Annual Economic Benefits of 100% Renewable Energy in £Millions/year £250 £240 £230 £220 £210 £200 £190 £180 £170 £160 £150 £140 £130 £120 £110 £100 £90 £80 £70 £60 £50 £40 £30 £20 £10 £0 Economic Economic Capital Economic Professional Grid Investment Investment Business Rates Local Benefit from Benefit from Investment Benefit of Services (incl. Returns Community Reversing Salaries Created Construction O&M) Donations Leakage in Energy Bills

7.4 Key Drivers Renewable energy development in West of England has received good support, especially from Bristol City Council who have developed their own onshore wind energy scheme. This is further reinforced with Bristol winning European Green Capital for 2015. The key drivers affecting the delivery of renewable energy generating potential for West of England can be broken down into four key factors; political will, geography, economic and technical factors. Political Political will in West of England in support of renewable energy is considered good, with the unitary authority model providing a very professional framework to allow a reasonable balanced commercial and scientific basis to decision making. The key to ongoing successful The West of England unitary authority model has seen deployment of renewable energy in decisions on renewables made on a balanced West of England, is the development commercial and scientific basis. of positive forward looking policies that give long term stability to the planning and permitting process. The Resilience Centre 43 For Molly Scott Cato MEP

Geography The area has significant potential for renewable energy generation, albeit within a relatively small are and a high population density. Its location along the Severn estuary provides good potential for tidal and marine based renewable energy deployment. These includewind energy resources, both onshore and offshore, as well as excellent marine tidal flow and tidal lagoon potential, although no commercial marine renewable energy has yet been deployed. The marine energy potential will increase significantly with investment in tidal lagoon technology The potential for West of England marine energy and the development of floating wind potential will increase significantly with investment in energy for West of England’s deeper tidal and floating wind technologies. waters. Economic The economic benefit from deployment of a renewable energy programme to meet West of England’s energy needs is good at an estimated 1.4% increase in total economic capacity for the area, contributing an additional £596m per year . This could be increased with the introduction of local ownership and investment models such as Community Benefit Societies, where local people own and operate projects in a mutual society structure. If West of England was to follow national guidance with a 40% reduction in its own energy demands through embracing low energy housing and electrification of its transport network it could generate 79% of its future energy needs from renewables. The potential income to local authorities in business rates alone across West of England from renewable energy schemes are expected to be around £22m per year if all constrained renewable energy generating potential is realised. Technical Whilst there remains some technical barriers to deployment of renewable energy most of these can be overcome by sustainable design and management. The key technical obstacle facing the renewables industry in the West of England planning its major urban areas around the utilisation of renewable energy, especially a committed programme of electrification of the transport network along with introduction of local Smart Grid energy storage systems. These will all help to overcome the current grid constraints and allow roll out of air and ground source heating and cooling within the major urban areas of Bristol, Bath and South Gloucestershire. Investment in tidal lagoon and floating offshore wind areas would yield considerable benefit both financially and to the energy security of West of England, although this requires significant investment in up front development costs and political backing. The political will is required to change the current reactive system of grid planning to one of progressive forward planning to allow renewable energy generating potential to be realised in West of England and across the South West.

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7.5 Detailed Information The following Table 7.5 below summarises the renewable energy generating potential for West of England as well as identifying, as of June 2014, the currently installed renewable energy generating capacity in the county.

West of England - Total Potential Renewable Energy Generation in MWhrs

3,200,000 3,000,000 2,800,000 2,600,000 2,400,000 2,200,000 2,000,000 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 MWhrs ofEnergyProduced 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 Air & Hot Anaerob Tidal Tidal Solar Sewage Ground Rock Onshore Hydroel ic Stream Lagoon OffShor Solar PV Biomass Thermal Gas Heat Geother Wind ectric Digestor (inshore (estuary e Wind Pumps mal s ) ) Energy in MWhrs 894,302 168,886 193,859 1,504,96 3,151,69 170,820 523,498 52,034 149,332 85,848 2,759,40 459,900

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Table 7.5 Summary of Renewable Energy Potential – West of England

West of England Renewable Energy Generation Potential & Contribution

Potenti Potential al Current Current Thermal Electric Install Install Cap. Cap. Electric Thermal MWth MWe Thermal Electrical Cap. Cap. (South (South % Total Energy Energy MWe MWth Gloucester Glouces Met Jobs Jobs Per Produced Produced (RegenS (RegenS shire tershire By Created 1000 Capital in in Total Energy W, W, Council, Council, Each Per MW Costs in MWthhrs/ Mwehrs/ Produced in Technology 2014) 2014) 2012) 2012) Tech. Tech. hrs £M yr yr MWhrs/yr

Solar PV 46.9 0.0 - 896.5 9% 1610 1.80 £717 0 894,302 894,302

Solar Thermal 0.0 2.0 282.2 0.0 2% 760 4.50 £282 168,886 0 168,886

Sewage Gas 1.0 1.0 9.0 25.0 2% 291 1.50 £75 44,939 148,920 193,859

Biomass 0.0 16.0 240.0 100.0 15% 3612 2.40 £400 1,198,368 306,600 1,504,968

Air & Ground Heat Pumps 0.0 4.5 2116 0.0 31% 8510 2.70 £847 3,151,698 0 3,151,698

Hot Rock Geothermal 0 0 20 10 2% 85 0.50 £60 113,880 56,940 170,820

Onshore Wind 22.6 0.0 0.0 199.2 5% 1204 2.30 £398 0 523,498 523,498

Hydroelectric 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.0 1% 68 1.30 £108 0 52,034 52,034

Anaerobic Digestors 6.3 4.3 8.6 34.7 1% 224 1.50 £104 42,942 106,390 149,332

Tidal Stream (inshore) 0.0 0.0 0.0 28.0 1% 60 0.70 £98 0 85,848 85,848

Tidal Lagoon (estuary) 0.0 0.0 0.0 900.0 27% 1932 0.70 £3,600 0 2,759,400 2,759,400

OffShore Wind 0.0 0.0 0.0 150.0 5% 690 1.50 £450 0 459,900 459,900

Energy Storage & Smart 1075.9 Grids 57 0.10 £962 0

TOTALS 77 28 2,676 2,352 100% 19101 1.7 £8,101 4,720,712 5,393,832 10,114,544

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8 Wiltshire 8.1 Introduction and key facts

Facts and figures Wiltshire consists of two unitary authorities, Wilshire and Swindon. An overview of Wiltshire Wiltshire has modest renewable energy generating • Population from the last census potential and the lowest of all the counties in the (2011): 680,137 South West region. • Area of Wiltshire: 3,525km2 Current & furture energy consumption 67% of total future energy needs for Wiltshire could be • Heating and electrical energy produced through renewable energy generation. consumption (Industrial & Residential): 9,675,911 MWhrs • Current total transport liquid On this basis it would be sensible for Wiltshire to fuels: 6,117,310 MWhrs focus on energy efficiency measures as a matter of • Total current gross energy used: priority and look to supplement its energy 15,793,221 MWhrs generating potential by importing renewable • 40% powering down between electricity. now and 2050: -6,317,288 MWhrs 8.2 Renewable Generating Potential • Revised projected gross energy Wiltshire has the potential to develop 1,787 MWe of requirements: 9,475,933 MWhrs electrical and 1,825 MWth of thermal energy generating capacity. Total amount of potential renewable energy which could be generated: This capacity has the potential to generate 67% of total future energy needs for Wiltshire assuming a • Gross energy: 6,377,093 MWhrs 40% reduction in energy needs due to energy which is broken down as follows; efficiency measures by 2050. • Electrical energy: 2,890,238

MWehrs 31% of this energy could be generated through air • Thermal energy: 3,486,355 and ground source heat pumps, 26% through

MWthhrs biomass, 21% through solar and 19% through • Energy storage requirements: onshore wind. 1,425MW

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Wiltshire - Potential Renewable Energy Generation Mix by % Anaerobic Digestors, Hydroelectric , 0% 2%

Solar PV, 19% Onshore Wind, 19%

Solar Thermal, 2%

Sewage Gas, 1%

Biomass, 26% Air & Ground Heat Pumps, 31%

How this was calculated For this projection the following parameters were used to calculate renewable energy generation potential: Solar Irradiation: 1050Wm2

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8.3 The economics of renewable energy generation in Wiltshire

Development of renewable energy generation in Wiltshire could creaste 15,185 full time equivalent skilled jobs, or a 4.5% increase in jobs across the county. Wiltshire’s economy would also benefit by £364m per year, representing a 2.6% annual growth. The bar chart below shows a detailed breakdown of the economic benefits arising from realising Wiltshire’s renewable energy generating potential. Key Economic Benefits

Wiltshire - Key Annual Economic Benefits of 100% Renewable Energy in £Millions/year 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Leakage in Salaries Equipment & Construction Professional Grid Investment Business Community Lease Surplus Energy Bills Created Capital Services Investment Returns Rates Donations Payments (incl. O&M)

8.4 Key Drivers Renewable energy development in Wiltshire has received mixed political support in recent years. A high profile attempt by Wiltshire County Council to try and bring in minimum distances for onshore wind technology that would have precluded almost all of the county. It’s not sure why Wiltshire took this stance at the time. This was subsequently overturned by the Planning Inspectorate following an appeal by a group of dedicated individuals and organisations supportive of onshore wind. The key drivers affecting the delivery of renewable energy generating potential for Wiltshire include political will, geography, economic and technical factors. Political Political will in Wiltshire is partly driven by its traditional conservative values and the prevalence of sensitivities around some of the UK’s foremost ancient sites. This is not helped by the challenging geography of Wiltshire as a landlocked county with no marine energy resources, minimal major rivers and a wide open landscape of rolling hills. Geography Being a landlocked county Wiltshire has modest potential for renewable energy generation with the key resource being biomass, onshore wind and solar. To date the most politically acceptable of these has been solar which has made up 78% of the renewable electricity deployment at the moment. The Resilience Centre 49 For Molly Scott Cato MEP

We estimate that Wiltshire’s onshore wind potential could provide a similar renewable electricity potential as solar at 19% of its future energy needs, provided the political will was there to support it. Economic The economic benefit from deployment of a renewable energy programme to meet 67% Wiltshire’s energy needs is an estimated 2.6% annual growth in total economic activity for the county. We estimate that this would contribute an additional £364m per year to Wiltshire’s economy. This figure could be increased with introduction of local ownership and investment models based around community investment, such as community benefit societies, where local people own and operate projects in a mutual society structure. If Wiltshire was to follow national guidance with a 40% reduction in its own energy demands through embracing low energy housing and electrification of its transport network it could generate 67% of its future energy needs from renewables. The potential income to local authorities in business rates alone across the county from renewable energy schemes are expected to be around £14m per year if all constrained renewable energy generating potential is realised.

Technical Whilst there remains some technical barriers to deployment of renewable energy most of these can be overcome by sustainable design and management. The key technical obstacle facing the renewables industry in Wiltshire is the absence of positive policies towards renewable energy development and public awareness of the economic benefits of developing its renewable resources. Likewise any local technical and grid constraints could be overcome by a committed programme of electrification of the transport network along with introduction of local Smart Grid energy storage systems. 8.5 Detailed Information

The following Table 8.5 below summarise the renewable energy generating potential for Wiltshire as well as identifying the currently installed renewable energy generating capacity in the county, as of June 2014.

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Wiltshire - Total Potential Renewable Energy Generation in MWhrs 2,000,000 1,900,000 1,800,000 1,700,000 1,600,000 1,500,000 1,400,000 1,300,000 1,200,000 1,100,000 1,000,000 900,000 800,000

MWhrs ofEnergyProduced 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 Air & Solar Onshore Hydroelectr Anaerobic Solar PV Sewage Gas Biomass Ground Thermal Wind ic Digestors Heat Pumps Energy in MWhrs 1,197,000 141,587 93,951 1,648,194 1,949,669 1,182,600 6,938 157,154

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Table 8.5 Summary of Renewable Energy Potential for Wiltshire

Wiltshire Renewable Energy Generation Potential & Contribution

Current Current Install Install Potenti Electric Thermal al Electrical Cap. in Cap. Potential Electric % Total Jobs Thermal Energy MWe MWth Thermal Cap. Cap. in Energy Jobs Per Energy Produced Total (RegenS (RegenS in MWth MWe Met By Created 1000 Capital Produced in Energy W, W, (CamCo, (CamCo, Each Per MW Costs in MWthhrs/ Mwehrs/ Produced Technology 2014) 2014) 2011) 2011) Tech. Tech. hrs £M yr yr in MWhrs

Solar PV 108.04 0 0 1200 19% 2155 1.80 £960 0 1,197,000 1,197,000

Solar 1.495 237 0 Thermal 0 2% 637 4.50 £237 141,587 0 141,587

Sewage Gas 0.535 0.1 4.5 12 1% 141 1.50 £36 22,469 71,482 93,951

Biomass 28 15 265 106 26% 3956 2.40 £424 1,323,198 324,996 1,648,194

Air & Ground 0 7.82 0 Heat Pumps 1309 31% 5264 2.70 £524 1,949,669 0 1,949,669

Onshore 0.08 0 450 Wind 0 19% 2720 2.30 £900 0 1,182,600 1,182,600

Hydroelectric 0.16 0 0 1.2 0% 2 0.30 £14 0 6,938 6,938

Anaerobic 2.18 3.03 10 18 Digestors 2% 236 1.50 £54 49,932 107,222 157,154

Energy Storage & 1425 Smart Grids 75 0.10 £1,448

Total Capacity & 139 28 1825 1787 Energy Yields 100% 15185 2.1 £4,597 3,486,855 2,890,238 6,377,093

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9.0 South West Summary 9.1 Introduction and key facts The South West consists of seven counties or distinct Facts and figures economic areas; Somerset, Cornwall, Devon, An overview of South West England Gloucestershire, West of England and Wiltshire. • Population from the last census The South West has significant renewable energy (2011): 5,580,781 generating potential with an excellent and • Area of South West England: complimentary spread of renewable energy 23,800 km2 resources that can provide sufficient diversity of Current & future energy generation to allow for meeting baseload energy consumption demands as well as peak lopping of sudden demand increases. • Heating and electrical energy consumption (Industrial & The combination of steady tidal flow, tidal range and Residential): 66,669,305 deep hot rock geothermal energy combined with MWhrs sustainable coppice biomass energy generation fits • Current total transport liquid well with the more variable wind and solar energy fuels: 42,843,990 MWhrs generation capabilities. Likewise on-farm and waste • Total current gross energy biomass anaerobic digestion combined with air and used: 109,513,295 MWhrs ground source heat pumps can provide useful • 40% powering down between energy needs at source, as well as playing a now and 2050: significant role for meeting localised short increases -43,805,318 MWhrs in demand. Hydroelectric whilst useful at a very • Revised projected gross energy local scale is unlikely to generate more than 1% of requirements: 65,707,977 the regions overall energy needs. Our estimates MWhrs indicate that overall river based hydroelectric is unlikely to reach an installed capacity of more than Total amount of potential renewable 50MWe or 0.36% of the regions energy needs energy which could be generated: (current estimates as of June 2014 indicate 10MWe • Gross energy: = 67,448,817M installed capacity for the region). Whrs which is broken down as This section introduces the key facts from the follows; analysis of the renewable energy capacity and • Electrical energy: 42,690,806 summarises it for the whole of the South West. MWehrs • Thermal energy: 24,758,010 The key findings for the region are:

MWthhrs • Energy storage requirements: 1. The South West region has the renewable 12,051 MW energy resources to meet more than 100% of its total energy needs, including replacement of liquid fuels and electrifying railways.

4. 34% of energy needs can be met from marine and inshore estuarine tidal energy, and 66% from all onshore renewables.

5. To enable the development of renewable energy generation we would suggest installing 12,051 MWe capacity of smart grid energy storage to balance intermittency of renewables and allow demand-led local smart grids to be developed.

6. This energy storage would provide 17,595,008 MWhrs/year or 27% of energy as demand required.

7. An estimated 122,000 full time equivalent jobs could be created if we deliver and maintain this renewable energy generation regionally, an increase in employment of 4.5% for the region.

8. We estimate that the capital cost of delivering such a programme would be £59,484m, including £8,784m on Smart Grid energy storage. This is 72% of equivalent nuclear costs to deliver the same amount of energy.

9. The equivalent cost of delivering 100% of the South West energy needs from nuclear is £82,510m or 138% of the equivalent cost of delivering with renewable energy.

10. Renewables costs provide for a local smart grid with energy storage and flexibility to meet spikes and drops in demand and reduce need for large scale pylons and transmission systems.

11. Renewables costs include £500m/year investment in local/regional grid reinforcement and upgrade, equivalent to an increased annual expenditure on grid updgrade and management of 64% each year.

12. The potential annual value added for delivering the constrained renewable energy resources of the South West would be £4,286m/year, equivalent to an annual growth rate of 4% year on year and equivalent to 43% of the total value of the tourism industry and 79% of the value of the aerospace and defence industry in the South West.

9.2 Renewable Generating Potential

The South West has the potential to generate an estimated 18,935 MWe of electrical and 12,869 MWth of thermal energy . This equates to 102.6% of total future energy needs for South West assuming a 40% powering down due to energy efficiency measures by 2050.

South West - Potential Sources of Renewable Energy Generation by Technology

Wave Power, 4% Solar PV, 11% Solar Thermal, 2% OffShore Wind, 17% Sewage Gas, 1%

Biomass, 15%

Tidal Lagoon, 11%

Tidal Stream, 2%

Anaerobic Digestors, 2% Hydroelectric , 0% Air & Ground Heat Pumps, 20% Onshore Wind, 12% Hot Rock Geothermal, 3%

9.3 The Economics of renewable energy generation in South West England

122,000 full time equivalent skilled jobs could be created if the South West of England’s renewable energy generating potential was fully utilised. This represents a 4.5% increase in jobs across the region. Renewable energy generation would also provide a boost to the economy of the South West, providing £4,286m of financial benefits every year, or an annual increase of 4.0% to the economy of the South West. See the bar chart in Figure 9.3a and 9.3b below for a detailed breakdown of the economic benefits for each county based on £Ms added and % increase in economy arising from realising the South West’s renewable energy generating potential.

Figure 9.3a Benefit in £Millions/year to Economies of Each County - Realising Renewable Energy Generating Potential £950 £900 £850 £800 £750 £700 £650 £600 £550 £500 £450 £400 £350 £300 £250 £200 £150 £100 £50 £0 Cornwall Devon Dorset Gloucestershire Somerset West of England Wiltshire Figure 9.3b Potential Economic Growth/year from Realising Renewable Energy Potential by % Current Economic Activity

9.0%

8.5%

8.0%

7.5%

7.0%

6.5%

6.0%

5.5%

5.0%

4.5%

4.0%

3.5%

3.0%

2.5%

2.0%

1.5%

1.0%

0.5%

0.0% Cornwall Devon Dorset Gloucestershire Somerset West of England Wiltshire

9.4 Key Drivers Renewable energy development in the South West has clearly been affected by the proposals for developing new build nuclear at Hinkley Point C, which we believe has had a chilling effect on renewable energy deployment in the region. The key drivers affecting the delivery of renewable energy generating potential for the South West can be broken down into political will, geography, economic and technical factors. Political Political will is considered the single most constraining barrier to deployment of renewable energy within the region and large disparities already exist between counties based around the political will to realise the renewable energy potentials of each. Much of the technical and economic challenges can be overcome by a positive political environment, encouraging developers to invest in renewables. The key here is developing positive forward facing policies that give long term stability to the planning and permitting process, backed by reasonable and stable funding mechanisms. Without these, developers are risking significant up front investment with a mixed chance of success based on the political allegiances of each administration rather than technical justification and need. The overtly positive support for the new build nuclear programme backed by the current UK Government and seen as a one stop shop for delivering both carbon reductions and employment in the region has clearly had a dampening effect on the renewable energy industry in the South West, especially the more capital intensive marine renewables sector. Geography The region has excellent potential for renewable energy generation based on its position facing the prevailing South Westerlies and the configuration of the coastline. The region has locally and nationally significant wind energy resources, both onshore and offshore, as well as excellent tidal range, tidal flow and wave resources. The potential of these technologies will also increase significantly with further development investment in floating offshore wind energy and tidal lagoons. The excellent tidal range in the Severn estuary and the Bridgewater Bay provides significant potential for tidal lagoon and tidal flow energy generation, none of which has been exploited to date. The regions also has some of the greatest potential for substainable coppice wood biomass production, which when combined with the latest Combined Heat and Power generating technology, could generate 15% of the region’s renewables potential. Extensive woodland restoration by coppice management of key upland areas would have clear benefits in reducing flood run-off from increased rainfall intensity due to climate change and could play a significant role in reducing flooding in lowland areas across the region. Ground and air source heat pumps would also play a major role, delivering 20% of the region’s energy needs and meeting a larger proportion of the region’s heating and cooling requirements. Economic The economic benefit from deployment of a renewable energy programme to meet the South West’s energy needs is significant at an estimated 4.0% annual growth in total economic capacity for the region, contributing an additional £4,286m per year. This could be increased with the introduction of local ownership and investment models based around community investment such as community benefit societies established where local people own and operate projects in a mutual society structure. In addition if the South West 57

was to follow national guidance with a 40% reduction in its own energy demands through embracing low energy housing and electrification of its transport network it could become a net exporter of energy, generating 102.6% of its future energy needs from renewables. Some other key economic indicators from realising the region’s readily available renewable energy potential are as follows: Business Rates The potential income to local authorities in business rates alone across the region from renewable energy schemes are expected to be around £167M per year, if all constrained renewable energy generating potential is realised. This equates to an increase in revenue received via Non Domestic Rates of 8.5%. Construction Industry The construction industry across the South West would benefit significantly from a long term strategy to develop the region’s renewable energy potential and would see a potential increase in business activity of £606M per year, equivalent to a 14.3% growth in the sector. Financial Sector The South West region already has a thriving ethical investment financial sector. If local ethical investment and ownership models could be realised, we could see a potential increase in the annual business activity of the financial sector of £430m from realising the regions renewable potential. This is equivalent to a 6.4% growth in the sector within the region. Grid Investment and Reinforcement The grid across the South West is in desparate need of reinforcement and upgrade. In recent years the majority of investment has been earmarked for meeting the potential needs of the new build nuclear programme, which to date has not materialised. This strategy has not allowed for adequate investment in the local and national grid through upgrade and Smart Grid energy storage within the region. We have identified annual investment, included in the capital costs of each project, equivalent to £500M each year for the next 20 years. This represents an increase in the current grid investment of 64% each year for the next 20 years. 9.5 Additional findings Distribution of Resources The potential geographical spread and type of renewable energy resources to meet and match the necessary energy needs of the South West has also been analysed for each county and is presented in Figure 9.5 below. This indicates a very good fit between resources and needs with some counties such as Somerset, Cornwall, Devon, and to a lesser extent Gloucestershire, having the potential to become net exporters of electricity to the rest of the region and the wider UK via the national grid. Energy Storage Delivering Base Load Energy The other key aspect of the study is the future role of Smart Grid energy storage to meet localised demands, with defection of supply from nationally transmitted energy over to localised supplies. At the same time this energy storage offers increased grid resilience, stability from fluctuating demands and better quality energy supplied through reduced voltage and frequency fluctuations.

The capital costs highlighted within the detailed tables for each county contain an element of grid reinforcement for each technology. The value of these payments made by each project to the Distribution Network Operator, currently Western Power Distribution, would amount to £500M each year. This includes the cost of Smart Grid energy storage and payments for grid upgrade and reinforcement costs. The integration of 12GW of Smart Grid energy storage also means that traditional methods of grid reinforcement, such as increased cabling and transformer and switching capacity, to meet maximum peak generation periods, can be reduced. Providing funds which can be targeted more effectively at local Smart Grid integration and dynamic demand response such as bi- directional electric vehicle charging points and dynamic control of household appliances.

Figure 9.5 South West - Comparison of Renewable Electrical & Thermal Energy Potential with Future Needs in MWhrs 10,000,000 Electrical Thermal 9,500,000 9,000,000 8,500,000 Devon West of England 8,000,000 7,500,000 7,000,000 Somerset Wiltshire 6,500,000 Gloucestershire Dorset 6,000,000 5,500,000 Cornwall 5,000,000 4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 -500,000 -1,000,000 -1,500,000

-2,000,000 Surplus/Deficit Surplus /Deficit Surplus /Deficit Surplus /Deficit Surplus /Deficit Surplus /Deficit Surplus /Deficit -2,500,000

-3,000,000 Devon -EnergyNeeds Doreset -EnergyNeeds Cornwall -EnergyNeeds Wiltshire -EnergyNeeds -3,500,000 Somerset -EnergyNeeds Devon -RenewableResources Dorset -RenewableResources Gloucestershire -EnergyNeeds West ofEngland-EnergyNeeds Cornwall -RenewableResources Wilsthire -RenewableResources Somerset -RenewableResources Gloucestershire -RenewableResources West ofEngland-RenewableResources Another potential significant future economic benefit of energy storage is protection from grid energy price fluctuations, particularly from demand spikes and future increases driven by depleting fossil fuel resources. With low ongoing operation and maintenance costs, coupled with on grid energy storage, renewables have the ability to future proof the region against rising grid energy prices, providing resilience to the regional economy with relatively fixed price renewable energy.

The recommendation from our study is that 12,000 MW (12GW) of energy capacity with 24,000 MWhrs of energy storage be developed in parallel with renewable energy resources. This storage would have the ability to charge and discharge twice per day providing 48,000MWhrs of daily energy from storage yielding 40% of the regions daily energy demand. The costs of this energy storage is built into the above figures for each county. In total this represents an investment of £8,780M in grid resilience and substantial future proofing from future energy price rises for the region. Typical energy storage systems are now designed with the ability to respond to fluctuations in demand within 250 milliseconds (250ms) compared to 15-20mins for the quickest gas fired Combined Cycle Gas Turbine power stations. In effect, this is 60-80 times quicker than our existing fossil fuel based systems. Likewise, the decentralised nature of localised renewables combined with Smart Grid energy storage means energy supply located closer to demand provides for much more rapid response and far greater control of variability on the grid. The benefits of this are reduced ‘brown outs’ and increased power factor quality (the quality of the energy supplied) which results in more efficient use of energy and greater longevity of electrical equipment.

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Appendices

A separate document with all the appendicies can be found at www.mollymep.org.uk/2015/04/17/power-to-transform