Market Update 9th April 2019

USE ALSI Close: 1,793.72 Previous: 1,797.28 (UP: 9.84% YTD) - USD/UGX: 3,733.13 Previous: 3,733.29 (Down:0.70%YTD)

USE ALSI* Key Statistics: Close 1,793.72 Market Synopsis: 1D* % Change (0.20) Market activity shrunk as turnover dropped to Ugx2.48Mn ($665) compared to MTD* % Change 1.83 yesterday’s Ugx33.24Mn ($8,906). remained attractive during trading as YTD* % Change 9.84 Ugx1.86Mn was made on its counter. Its shares were traded at Ugx300 each. NIC 52 Week Range 1,590.22–2,269.50 Holdings traded at Ugx13.90 making Ugx0.48Mn in turnover. CiplaQCIL and Volume 44,390 D fcu generated a combined Ugx0.14Mn in turnover. Their shares were exchanged Turnover (ugx) 2.48Mn($665) at Ugx190 and Ugx670 respectively. The ALSI lost 0.20% to 1,793.72 whereas the PE 6.86 C8 Index added just 0.10% to 138.87. EPS 60.85 Headlines: Dividend Yield 2.1% Barriers to free electricity connections: In the last five months alone, the Market Cap (Ugx) 24,984.12Bn ($6,752.47Mn) number of applicants for electricity connections to the country’s main distribution grid has increased by 53.8 per cent, according to industry statistics. This is largely USE ALSI*- USE All Share Index, 1D*- One Day, MTD*- Month to Date, YTD*- Year to Date Source: Securities Exchange, Blomberg attributed to the government’s launch of the free Electricity Connections Policy 2,300 (ECP) through which government wants 0.3 million households connected USE ALSI INDEX - 12 months annually. Applicants now do not have to pay Shs98,000 for a no pole service or the 2,250 Shs326,000 for a one pole service. And where they would have had to pay 2,200 Shs41,300 as inspection fee, they now pay only Shs20,000. As a result, Uganda’s 2,150 largest power distributor by customer numbers (1.3 million customers), Umeme 2,100 Limited, now receives a mean of 1,000 applicants daily, which is 22 percentage 2,050 points above ECP’s average. “The applications we receive have increased from an average of 650 per day to close to 1, 000,” Florence Nsubuga, Umeme’s chief 2,000 operations officer, said recently in . “That means people welcome the 1,950 policy. As Umeme, we are committed to supporting the government agenda to 1,900 connect more people to the grid,”Ms Nsubuga said. To support the government’s 1,850 free connections policy, the utility says it will continue expanding power 1,800 infrastructure such as lines, transformers and substations. Government rolled out ECP in November 2018 to increase access to electricity from 24 per cent to 60 per 1,750 cent by 2027. According to a Rural Electricity Agency (REA) document, ECP alone 1,700 will contribute to the consumption of 500 megawatts (MW). With the recent 1,650 addition of the 183 megawatts generated from Isimba dam to the national grid, the 1,600 country’s total power generated capacity has increased to 1,167 Megawatts (MW) 1,550 which is beyond the peak demand of about 625MV. () Sub-Saharan economic growth recovery to take longer - World Bank: World 1,500 Bank has cut its growth forecast for Sub-Saharan Africa this year to 2.8 percent from an initial 3.3 percent, it said on Monday. The commodity price slump of 2015 cut short a decade of rapid growth for the region, and the bank said growth would take longer to recover as a decline in industrial production and a trade dispute

Source: Uganda Securities Exchange between China and the United States take their toll. The bank’s 2019 forecast means economic growth will lag population growth for the fourth year in a row Crested 9 Price Snapshot: and it will remain stuck below 3 percent, which it slipped to in 2015. In its latest Close 52 Week Range YTD % Ch. report on the regional economy, the bank also cut its 2018 growth estimate to 2.3 C9 138.87 122.30– 158.15 (4.49) percent from last October’s prediction of 2.7 percent growth for last year. “The BATU 30,000 30,000 – 30,000 0.00 slower-than-expected overall growth reflects ongoing global uncertainty, but BOBU 130 120 – 160 (7.14) increasingly comes from domestic macroeconomic instability including poorly DFCU 670 670 – 970 (18.59) managed debt, inflation and deficits,” the bank said. Nigeria, South Africa and CQCIL 190 174.23– 262.00 0.00 Angola, which make up about 60 percent of sub-Saharan Africa’s annual economic NIC 13.70 13.50–19.70 (0.21) output, were all facing various challenges, curbing their contribution to the growth NVL 334 330 – 510 (1.44) momentum, the bank said. “This downward revision reflects slower growth in SBU 30 28.09– 33.00 (3.23) Nigeria and Angola, due to challenges in the oil sector, and subdued investment UCL 16.90 16.61– 29.00 (11.05) growth in South Africa, due to low business confidence,” it said. (Reuters) UMEM 300 292.05-410.00 (6.25) Forex Outlook: The Ugandan shilling was stable on Tuesday but was forecast to *C8 is Crested 8 Local companies Index weaken, hurt by demand from energy companies and some foreign-owned firms preparing to pay dividends. The local currency traded at 3,733/3,743. Regional Counters: Macro Indicators: Close 52 Week Range YTD % Ch. (%) Period NSE 20 2,844.64 2,708.56– 3,862.27 0.38 Inflation (Year on Year) 3.00 Ended March 2019 BRITAM (Kshs) 8.48 8.48– 15.80 (15.20) Central Bank Rate (CBR) 10.0 01/04/19 SAF (Kshs) 28.00 21.30–32.75 26.12 Bank Rate 15.0 01/04/19 KA (Kshs) 5.26 4.88– 17.99 (40.90) 91-day T-Bill 10.11 20/03/19 NSE (Kshs) 13.80 13.40 – 21.75 1.84 182-day T-Bill 11.00 20/03/19 BRL (Rwf) 140 140– 155 (6.67) 364-day T-Bill 12.50 20/03/19 BOK (Rwf) 265 265 – 295 (4.67) CTL (Rwf) 50 50 – 58 (5.66) Forex Close Prev. YTD % Ch. Sources: Crested Research, Uganda Securities Exchange, Nairobi Securities Exchange, GBP/UGX 4,857.68 4,883.95 (3.27) Rwanda Securities Exchange, Bank of Uganda, Bloomberg EUR/UGX 4,190.29 4,187.18 1.16 KEN/UGX 37.04 37.11 (1.81) CRESTEDCAPITAL RESEARCH CONTACT TZS/UGX 1.61 1.61 0.00 Impala House 1st Floor, Plot 13/15 Kimathi Avenue Hotline: +256 414 230900 RWF/UGX 4.24 4.25 0.70 @: [email protected], W: www.crestedcapital.com

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