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2010 Electricity Statement of Opportunities for the National Electricity Market

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ELECTRICITY STATEMENT OF OPPORTUNITIES 2010 Electricity Statement of Opportunities for the National Electricity Market Published by AEMO Australian Energy Market Operator 530 Collins Street Melbourne Victoria 3000 Copyright © 2010 AEMO ISSN: 1836-7593 © AEMO 2010 ELECTRICITY STATEMENT OF OPPORTUNITIES © AEMO 2010 ELECTRICITY STATEMENT OF OPPORTUNITIES Preface I am pleased to introduce AEMO’s 2010 Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO), which presents the outlook for Australia’s National Electricity Market (NEM) supply capacity for years 2013-2020 and demand for years 2010-2020. The supply-demand outlook reflects the extent of growth, and opportunities for growth, in generation and demand-side investment. This year, for the first time, AEMO has separated the 10-year supply-demand outlook into two documents. While the ESOO will cover years 3-10 and focus on investment matters, a separate document titled Power System Adequacy (PSA)–A Two Year Outlook will publish the operational issues and supply-demand outlook for summers 2010/11 and 2011/12. AEMO has released the ESOO and PSA together. The ESOO is one of a collection of AEMO planning publications that provides comprehensive information about energy supply and investment, demand, and network planning. AEMO’s other annual planning documents are the South Australian Supply and Demand Outlook, the Victorian Annual Planning Report and Update, the National Transmission Network Development Plan (NTNDP), and the Gas Statement of Opportunities. AEMO expects that climate change policies will, over time, change the way in which Australia produces and consumes electricity. This is likely to take place through a shift from the current reliance on coal as a source of generation to less carbon-intensive fuel sources. AEMO is also preparing for possible changes to consumption patterns resulting from technological developments, where smart grids, smart meters and electric vehicles may combine to change the demand landscape. Changes to the nature of generation supply and consumption will, in turn, impact the requirements for and utilisation of transmission and distribution networks. AEMO’s first NTNDP, to be released in December 2010, will consider the impact of climate change policies as part of its analysis of the efficient development of the national transmission network over a 20-year horizon. While the ESOO has considered the impact of a potential Australian carbon policy on the NEM in its demand forecasts, and on investment in a new chapter (Chapter 2, Emerging Investment Trends), the impact of these policies will be understood more clearly following greater certainty about policy direction. The 2010 ESOO has not considered the potential impact on the NEM of a resource rent tax, or more generally any policy statements or positions since June 2010. In this time of change, I am pleased that AEMO can provide valuable information to assist the energy sector with understanding its operating environment and adapting so that, together, we can continue to meet Australia’s energy needs. Matt Zema Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer © AEMO 2010 i Preface ELECTRICITY STATEMENT OF OPPORTUNITIES © AEMO 2010 ii Preface ELECTRICITY STATEMENT OF OPPORTUNITIES Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by the Australian Energy Market Operator Limited (AEMO) using information available at 20 May 2010, unless otherwise specified. AEMO must publish the Electricity Statement of Opportunities in order to comply with Clause 3.13.3(q) of the Rules. The purpose of publication is to provide technical and market data and information regarding opportunities in the National Electricity Market (NEM). Some information available after 20 May 2010 might have been included in this publication where it has been practicable to do so. Information in this publication does not amount to a recommendation in respect of any possible investment and does not purport to contain all of the information that a prospective investor or participant or potential participant in the NEM might require. The information contained in this publication might not be appropriate for all persons and it is not possible for AEMO to have regard to the investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs of each person who reads or uses this publication. The information contained in this publication may contain errors or omissions, or might not prove to be correct. In all cases, anyone proposing to rely on or use the information in this publication should independently verify and check the accuracy, completeness, reliability, and suitability of that information (including information and reports provided by third parties) and should obtain independent and specific advice from appropriate experts. Accordingly, to the maximum extent permitted by law, neither AEMO, nor any of AEMO’s advisers, consultants or other contributors to this publication (or their respective associated companies, businesses, partners, directors, officers or employees): (a) make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the currency, accuracy, reliability or completeness of this publication and the information contained in it; and (b) shall have any liability (whether arising from negligence, negligent misstatement, or otherwise) for any statements, opinions, information or matter (expressed or implied) arising out of, contained in or derived from, or for any omissions from, the information in this publication, or in respect of a person’s use of the information (including any reliance on its currency, accuracy, reliability or completeness) contained in this publication. Copyright Notice AEMO is the owner of the copyright and all other intellectual property rights in this publication. All rights are reserved. This publication must not be re-sold without AEMO’s prior written permission. All material is subject to copyright under the Copyright Act 1968 (Cth) and permission to copy it, or any parts of it, must be obtained in writing from AEMO. Acknowledgment AEMO acknowledges the support, co-operation and contribution of all participants in providing the data and information used in this ESOO. © AEMO 2010 iii Disclaimer ELECTRICITY STATEMENT OF OPPORTUNITIES © AEMO 2010 iv Disclaimer ELECTRICITY STATEMENT OF OPPORTUNITIES Contents Executive Summary .................................................................................................... 3 Chapter 1 - Introduction .............................................................................................. 7 Chapter 2 Emerging Investment Trends ................................................................... 9 2.1 Summary ....................................................................................................................... 9 2.2 Investment in the National Electricity Market ................................................................ 9 2.3 Increasing generation diversity .....................................................................................9 2.4 The changing nature of demand ................................................................................. 14 2.5 Transmission network planning implications ............................................................... 16 2.6 Other investment issues .............................................................................................. 17 Chapter 3 – NEM Governance and Recent Market Development .......................... 19 3.1 Summary .....................................................................................................................19 3.2 NEM governance and regulator y framework .............................................................. 19 3.3 Current policy and regulatory developments ............................................................... 21 3.4 2009 ESOO market development updates ................................................................. 27 Chapter 4 - Energy and Demand Projections ......................................................... 29 4.1 Summary .....................................................................................................................29 4.2 Key definitions of energy and demand ........................................................................ 29 4.3 NEM energy and maximum demand projections ........................................................ 34 4.4 Queensland ................................................................................................................. 39 4.5 New South Wales, including the Australian Capital Territory ................................................. 44 4.6 Victoria ........................................................................................................................ 48 4.7 South Australia ............................................................................................................ 53 4.8 Tasmania ....................................................................................................................57 4.9 Non-scheduled generation projections........................................................................ 62 4.10 Demand-side participation results ............................................................................... 70 4.11 Process and methodology........................................................................................... 71 Chapter 5 – Generation Capacities .......................................................................... 85 5.1 Summary .....................................................................................................................85
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