DOCSLIB.ORG

2010 Electricity Statement of Opportunities for the National Electricity Market

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
2010 Electricity Statement of Opportunities for the National Electricity Market ELECTRICITY STATEMENT OF OPPORTUNITIES 2010 Electricity Statement of Opportunities for the National Electricity Market Published by AEMO Australian Energy Market Operator 530 Collins Street Melbourne Victoria 3000 Copyright © 2010 AEMO ISSN: 1836-7593 © AEMO 2010 ELECTRICITY STATEMENT OF OPPORTUNITIES © AEMO 2010 ELECTRICITY STATEMENT OF OPPORTUNITIES Preface I am pleased to introduce AEMO’s 2010 Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO), which presents the outlook for Australia’s National Electricity Market (NEM) supply capacity for years 2013-2020 and demand for years 2010-2020. The supply-demand outlook reflects the extent of growth, and opportunities for growth, in generation and demand-side investment. This year, for the first time, AEMO has separated the 10-year supply-demand outlook into two documents. While the ESOO will cover years 3-10 and focus on investment matters, a separate document titled Power System Adequacy (PSA)–A Two Year Outlook will publish the operational issues and supply-demand outlook for summers 2010/11 and 2011/12. AEMO has released the ESOO and PSA together. The ESOO is one of a collection of AEMO planning publications that provides comprehensive information about energy supply and investment, demand, and network planning. AEMO’s other annual planning documents are the South Australian Supply and Demand Outlook, the Victorian Annual Planning Report and Update, the National Transmission Network Development Plan (NTNDP), and the Gas Statement of Opportunities. AEMO expects that climate change policies will, over time, change the way in which Australia produces and consumes electricity. This is likely to take place through a shift from the current reliance on coal as a source of generation to less carbon-intensive fuel sources. AEMO is also preparing for possible changes to consumption patterns resulting from technological developments, where smart grids, smart meters and electric vehicles may combine to change the demand landscape. Changes to the nature of generation supply and consumption will, in turn, impact the requirements for and utilisation of transmission and distribution networks. AEMO’s first NTNDP, to be released in December 2010, will consider the impact of climate change policies as part of its analysis of the efficient development of the national transmission network over a 20-year horizon. While the ESOO has considered the impact of a potential Australian carbon policy on the NEM in its demand forecasts, and on investment in a new chapter (Chapter 2, Emerging Investment Trends), the impact of these policies will be understood more clearly following greater certainty about policy direction. The 2010 ESOO has not considered the potential impact on the NEM of a resource rent tax, or more generally any policy statements or positions since June 2010. In this time of change, I am pleased that AEMO can provide valuable information to assist the energy sector with understanding its operating environment and adapting so that, together, we can continue to meet Australia’s energy needs. Matt Zema Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer © AEMO 2010 i Preface ELECTRICITY STATEMENT OF OPPORTUNITIES © AEMO 2010 ii Preface ELECTRICITY STATEMENT OF OPPORTUNITIES Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by the Australian Energy Market Operator Limited (AEMO) using information available at 20 May 2010, unless otherwise specified. AEMO must publish the Electricity Statement of Opportunities in order to comply with Clause 3.13.3(q) of the Rules. The purpose of publication is to provide technical and market data and information regarding opportunities in the National Electricity Market (NEM). Some information available after 20 May 2010 might have been included in this publication where it has been practicable to do so. Information in this publication does not amount to a recommendation in respect of any possible investment and does not purport to contain all of the information that a prospective investor or participant or potential participant in the NEM might require. The information contained in this publication might not be appropriate for all persons and it is not possible for AEMO to have regard to the investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs of each person who reads or uses this publication. The information contained in this publication may contain errors or omissions, or might not prove to be correct. In all cases, anyone proposing to rely on or use the information in this publication should independently verify and check the accuracy, completeness, reliability, and suitability of that information (including information and reports provided by third parties) and should obtain independent and specific advice from appropriate experts. Accordingly, to the maximum extent permitted by law, neither AEMO, nor any of AEMO’s advisers, consultants or other contributors to this publication (or their respective associated companies, businesses, partners, directors, officers or employees): (a) make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the currency, accuracy, reliability or completeness of this publication and the information contained in it; and (b) shall have any liability (whether arising from negligence, negligent misstatement, or otherwise) for any statements, opinions, information or matter (expressed or implied) arising out of, contained in or derived from, or for any omissions from, the information in this publication, or in respect of a person’s use of the information (including any reliance on its currency, accuracy, reliability or completeness) contained in this publication. Copyright Notice AEMO is the owner of the copyright and all other intellectual property rights in this publication. All rights are reserved. This publication must not be re-sold without AEMO’s prior written permission. All material is subject to copyright under the Copyright Act 1968 (Cth) and permission to copy it, or any parts of it, must be obtained in writing from AEMO. Acknowledgment AEMO acknowledges the support, co-operation and contribution of all participants in providing the data and information used in this ESOO. © AEMO 2010 iii Disclaimer ELECTRICITY STATEMENT OF OPPORTUNITIES © AEMO 2010 iv Disclaimer ELECTRICITY STATEMENT OF OPPORTUNITIES Contents Executive Summary .................................................................................................... 3 Chapter 1 - Introduction .............................................................................................. 7 Chapter 2 Emerging Investment Trends ................................................................... 9 2.1 Summary ....................................................................................................................... 9 2.2 Investment in the National Electricity Market ................................................................ 9 2.3 Increasing generation diversity .....................................................................................9 2.4 The changing nature of demand ................................................................................. 14 2.5 Transmission network planning implications ............................................................... 16 2.6 Other investment issues .............................................................................................. 17 Chapter 3 – NEM Governance and Recent Market Development .......................... 19 3.1 Summary .....................................................................................................................19 3.2 NEM governance and regulator y framework .............................................................. 19 3.3 Current policy and regulatory developments ............................................................... 21 3.4 2009 ESOO market development updates ................................................................. 27 Chapter 4 - Energy and Demand Projections ......................................................... 29 4.1 Summary .....................................................................................................................29 4.2 Key definitions of energy and demand ........................................................................ 29 4.3 NEM energy and maximum demand projections ........................................................ 34 4.4 Queensland ................................................................................................................. 39 4.5 New South Wales, including the Australian Capital Territory ................................................. 44 4.6 Victoria ........................................................................................................................ 48 4.7 South Australia ............................................................................................................ 53 4.8 Tasmania ....................................................................................................................57 4.9 Non-scheduled generation projections........................................................................ 62 4.10 Demand-side participation results ............................................................................... 70 4.11 Process and methodology........................................................................................... 71 Chapter 5 – Generation Capacities .......................................................................... 85 5.1 Summary .....................................................................................................................85
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Financial Services Guide and Independent Expert's Report
    15 September 2008 Manager Companies ASX Limited 20 Bridge Street SYDNEY NSW 200 Dear Sir INDEPENDENT EXPERT'S REPORT Attached herewith for immediate release to the market is the Independent Expert’s Report of Grant Samuel dated 15 September 2008. The report will be available today on the Origin Energy website on: www.originenergy.com.au/media/newsroom. Printed copies of the report may be requested by contacting our shareholder information line 1800 647 819. Yours faithfully Bill Hundy Company Secretary 02 8345 5467 - [email protected] For personal use only Origin Energy Limited ABN 30 000 051 696 • Level 45, Australia Square, 264-278 George Street Sydney NSW 2000 GPO Box 5376, Sydney NSW 2001 • Telephone (02) 8345 5000 • Facsimile (02) 9252 9244 • www.originenergy.com.au GRANT SAMUEL & ASSOCIATES LEVEL 19 GOVERNOR MACQUARIE TOWER 1 FARRER PLACE SYDNEY NSW 2000 GPO BOX 4301 SYDNEY NSW 2001 15 September 2008 T: +61 2 9324 4211 / F: +61 2 9324 4301 www.grantsamuel.com.au The Directors Origin Energy Limited Level 45, Australia Square 264-278 George Street Sydney NSW 2000 Dear Directors ConocoPhillips Proposal 1 Introduction On 8 September 2008, Origin Energy Limited (“Origin”) announced that it had entered conditional agreements with a wholly owned subsidiary of ConocoPhillips (“ConocoPhillips”) to create an incorporated 50/50 joint venture (“JV”) to develop Origin’s coal seam gas (“CSG”) assets and a gas liquefaction facility (“the ConocoPhillips Proposal”). The key features of the ConocoPhillips Proposal are: ConocoPhillips will subscribe for new partly paid shares in Origin Energy CSG Limited (“OECSG”) which will comprise 50% of the enlarged share capital.
    [Show full text]
  • Hydro 4 Water Storage
    TERM OF REFERENCE 3: STATE-WIDE WATER STORAGE MANAGEMENT The causes of the floods which were active in Tasmania over the period 4-7 June 2016 including cloud-seeding, State-wide water storage management and debris management. 1 CONTEXT 1.1 Cause of the Floods (a) It is clear that the flooding that affected northern Tasmania (including the Mersey, Forth, Ouse and South Esk rivers) during the relevant period was directly caused by “a persistent and very moist north-easterly airstream” which resulted in “daily [rainfall] totals [that were] unprecedented for any month across several locations in the northern half of Tasmania”, in some cases in excess of 200mm.1 (b) This paper addresses Hydro Tasmania’s water storage management prior to and during the floods. 1.2 Overview (a) In 2014, Tasmania celebrated 100 years of hydro industrialisation and the role it played in the development of Tasmania. Hydro Tasmania believes that understanding the design and purpose of the hydropower infrastructure that was developed to bring electricity and investment to the state is an important starting point to provide context for our submission. The Tasmanian hydropower system design and operation is highly complex and is generally not well understood in the community. We understand that key stakeholder groups are seeking to better understand the role that hydropower operations may have in controlling or contributing to flood events in Tasmania. (b) The hydropower infrastructure in Tasmania was designed and installed for the primary purpose of generating hydro-electricity. Flood mitigation was not a primary objective in the design of Hydro Tasmania’s dams when the schemes were developed, and any flood mitigation benefit is a by-product of their hydro- generation operation.
    [Show full text]
  • Derwent Catchment Review
    Derwent Catchment Review PART 1 Introduction and Background Prepared for Derwent Catchment Review Steering Committee June, 2011 By Ruth Eriksen, Lois Koehnken, Alistair Brooks and Daniel Ray Table of Contents 1 Introduction ..........................................................................................................................................1 1.1 Project Scope and Need....................................................................................................1 2 Physical setting......................................................................................................................................1 2.1 Catchment description......................................................................................................2 2.2 Geology and Geomorphology ...........................................................................................5 2.3 Rainfall and climate...........................................................................................................9 2.3.1 Current climate ............................................................................................................9 2.3.2 Future climate............................................................................................................10 2.4 Vegetation patterns ........................................................................................................12 2.5 River hydrology ...............................................................................................................12 2.5.1
    [Show full text]
  • Conditions Favouring Growth of Fresh Water Biofouling in Hydraulic Canals and the Impact of Biofouling on Pipe Flows
    Conditions Favouring Growth of Fresh Water Biofouling in Hydraulic Canals and the Impact of Biofouling on Pipe Flows By Xiao Lin Li BEng(Hons.) Submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Masters University of Tasmania October 2013 Declaration of Originality This thesis contains no material which has been accepted for a degree or diploma by the University or any other institution, except by way of background information and duly acknowledged in the thesis, and to the best of candidates knowledge and belief no material previously published or written by another person except where due acknowledgement is made in the text of the thesis. …………………………………… Xiao Lin Li Date: 12/10/2013 Statement Concerning Authority to Access This thesis may be made available for loan and limited copying in accordance with the Copyright Act 1968. …………………………………... Xiao Lin Li Date: 12/10/2013 ii Abstract Abstract Biofouling increases frictional resistance and slows the water flow in fresh water canals and pipes. It results in up to 10% reduction in the flow carrying capacity in hydropower canals in Tasmania, Australia. This project investigated the effect of colour on the growth of biofouling in open channels and the impact of biofouling in pipes and penstocks. The effect of substratum colour on the growth of biofouling was studied by submerging mild steel plates painted with four different coloured epoxy coatings in fresh water. The plates were placed in a concrete lined canal for a period of time to allow biofouling to grow. Results show that black was the favoured colour for the growth of biofouling whereas the white plates developed the least amount.
    [Show full text]
  • Gas 2007/08 Annual Report
    Report of the Technical Regulator This is the annual report of the Technical Regulator under the Electricity Act 1996 and the Energy Products (Safety and Efficiency) Act 2000. It describes the operations of the Technical Regulator for the financial year 2013-14 as required by sections 14 and 25 of the Acts respectively. These sections require the minister to cause a copy of the report to be laid before both houses of parliament. The Technical Regulator is a statutory office established by Section 7 of the Electricity Act 1996. Robert Faunt has held this office since he was appointed as the Technical Regulator on 28 February 2003. Technical Regulator: Robert Faunt Address: Level 8, ANZ Building 11 Waymouth Street Adelaide 5000 Postal Address: GPO Box 320 Adelaide SA 5001 Telephone: (08) 8226 5500 Facsimile: (08) 8226 5529 Office Hours: 9 am to 5 pm, Monday to Friday (except public holidays) Website: www.sa.gov.au/otr Email: [email protected] ISSN: 1832-8687 Front Cover Photos: Top row: Panoramic View of Clements Gap Wind Farm Middle row (left to right): Electrical installations, High voltage substation equipment, Electrical worker working at a substation Bottom row: Davenport transmission line, courtesy of ElectraNet Inside Photos: Torrens Island Power Station (page 9), courtesy of AGL Energy Tungkillo Substation (page 10), courtesy of ElectraNet Powerlines at Iron Knob (page 13), courtesy of Cowell Electric Note: All photographs in this report have been used with the permission of the relevant provider. i Annual Report of the Technical Regulator 2013-14: Electricity Preface This report covers the Technical Regulator’s operations under the Electricity Act 1996 and the Technical Regulator’s administration of the Energy Products (Safety and Efficiency) Act 2000 for the financial year ending 30 June 2014.
    [Show full text]
  • State of the Energy Market 2011
    state of the energy market 2011 AUSTRALIAN ENERGY REGULATOR state of the energy market 2011 AUSTRALIAN ENERGY REGULATOR Australian Energy Regulator Level 35, The Tower, 360 Elizabeth Street, Melbourne Central, Melbourne, Victoria 3000 Email: [email protected] Website: www.aer.gov.au ISBN 978 1 921964 05 3 First published by the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission 2011 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 © Commonwealth of Australia 2011 This work is copyright. Apart from any use permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part may be reproduced without prior written permission from the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission. Requests and inquiries concerning reproduction and rights should be addressed to the Director Publishing, ACCC, GPO Box 3131, Canberra ACT 2601, or [email protected]. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This report was prepared by the Australian Energy Regulator. The AER gratefully acknowledges the following corporations and government agencies that have contributed to this report: Australian Bureau of Statistics; Australian Energy Market Operator; d-cyphaTrade; Department of Resources, Energy and Tourism (Cwlth); EnergyQuest; Essential Services Commission (Victoria); Essential Services Commission of South Australia; Independent Competition and Regulatory Commission (ACT); Independent Pricing and Regulatory Tribunal of New South Wales; Office of the Tasmanian Economic Regulator; and Queensland Competition Authority. The AER also acknowledges Mark Wilson for supplying photographic images. IMPORTANT NOTICE The information in this publication is for general guidance only. It does not constitute legal or other professional advice, and should not be relied on as a statement of the law in any jurisdiction. Because it is intended only as a general guide, it may contain generalisations.
    [Show full text]
  • Report Title
    ISSN 1835-9728 Environmental Economics Research Hub Research Reports The Integration of Wind Generation within the South Australian Region of the Australia National Electricity Market Nicholas Cutler, Iain MacGill and Hugh Outhred Research Report No. 38 November 10 2009 About the authors Nicholas Cutler is a research associate in School of Electrical Engineering and Telecommunications at the University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia. His research interests include integrating renewable energy into power systems, specifically wind power and wind power forecasting. [email protected] +61 2 9385 4061 Hugh Outhred is a Professorial Visiting Fellow in the School of Electrical Engineering and Telecommunications at the University of New South Wales, Sydney. His research interests are in the areas of energy industry restructuring, energy economics, demand management, and renewable energy. [email protected] +61 2 9385 4035 Dr Iain MacGill is a Senior Lecturer in the School of Electrical Engineering and Telecommunications at the University of New South Wales, and Joint Director (Engineering) for the University’s Centre for Energy and Environmental Markets (CEEM). Iain’s teaching and research interests include electricity industry restructuring and the Australian National Electricity Market, sustainable energy technologies, distributed energy systems, energy policy and environmental regulation. CEEM itself undertakes interdisciplinary research in the monitoring, analysis and design of energy and environmental markets and their associated policy frameworks. To learn more about CEEM and its work, visit the centre website at – www.ceem.unsw.edu.au [email protected] +61 2 9385 4092 Environmental Economics Research Hub Research Reports are published by The Crawford School of Economics and Government, Australian National University, Canberra 0200 Australia.
    [Show full text]
  • Clarence Meeting Agenda
    CLARENCE CITY COUNCIL 11 NOV 2019 1 Prior to the commencement of the meeting, the Mayor will make the following declaration: “I acknowledge the Tasmanian Aboriginal Community as the traditional custodians of the land on which we meet today, and pay respect to elders, past and present”. The Mayor also to advise the Meeting and members of the public that Council Meetings, not including Closed Meeting, are audio-visually recorded and published to Council’s website. CLARENCE CITY COUNCIL 11 NOV 2019 2 COUNCIL MEETING MONDAY 11 NOVEMBER 2019 TABLE OF CONTENTS ITEM SUBJECT PAGE 1. APOLOGIES ....................................................................................................................................... 5 2. CONFIRMATION OF MINUTES ............................................................................................................ 5 3. MAYOR’S COMMUNICATION ............................................................................................................. 5 4. COUNCIL WORKSHOPS ...................................................................................................................... 6 5. DECLARATIONS OF INTERESTS OF ALDERMAN OR CLOSE ASSOCIATE ............................................. 7 6. TABLING OF PETITIONS .................................................................................................................... 8 7. PUBLIC QUESTION TIME.................................................................................................................... 9 7.1 PUBLIC QUESTIONS
    [Show full text]
  • The Glacial History of the Upper Mersey Valley
    THE GLACIAL HISTORY OF THE UPPER MERSEY VALLEY by A a" D. G. Hannan, B.Sc., B. Ed., M. Ed. (Hons.) • Submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science UNIVERSITY OF TASMANIA HOBART February, 1989 CONTENTS Summary of Figures and Tables Acknowledgements ix Declaration ix Abstract 1 Chapter 1 The upper Mersey Valley and adjacent areas: geographical 3 background Location and topography 3 Lithology and geological structure of the upper Mersey region 4 Access to the region 9 Climate 10 Vegetation 10 Fauna 13 Land use 14 Chapter 2 Literature review, aims and methodology 16 Review of previous studies of glaciation in the upper Mersey 16 region Problems arising from the literature 21 Aims of the study and methodology 23 Chapter $ Landforms produced by glacial and periglacial processes 28 Landforms of glacial erosion 28 Landforms of glacial deposition 37 Periglacial landforms and deposits 43 Chapter 4 Stratigraphic relationships between the Rowallan, Arm and Croesus glaciations 51 Regional stratigraphy 51 Weathering characteristics of the glacial, glacifluvial and solifluction deposits 58 Geographic extent and location of glacial sediments 75 Chapter 5 The Rowallan Glaciation 77 The extent of Rowallan Glaciation ice 77 Sediments associated with Rowallan Glaciation ice 94 Directions of ice movement 106 Deglaciation of Rowallan Glaciation ice 109 The age of the Rowallan Glaciation 113 Climate during the Rowallan Glaciation 116 Chapter The Arm, Croesus and older glaciations 119 The Arm Glaciation 119 The Croesus Glaciation 132 Tertiary Glaciation 135 Late Palaeozoic Glaciation 136 Chapter 7 Conclusions 139 , Possible correlations of other glaciations with the upper Mersey region 139 Concluding remarks 146 References 153 Appendix A INDEX OF FIGURES AND TABLES FIGURES Follows page Figure 1: Location of the study area.
    [Show full text]
  • Multipurpose Water Uses of Hydropower Reservoirs
    MULTIPURPOSE WATER USES OF HYDROPOWER RESERVOIRS 7 APRIL 2015 “SHARING THE WATER USES OF MULTIPURPOSE HYDROPOWER RESERVOIRS: THE SHARE CONCEPT” FINAL VERSION This paper presents the main deliverables of the EDF – WWC framework “multipurpose water uses of hydropower reservoirs”. Multipurpose hydropower reservoirs are designed and/or operated to provide services beyond electricity generation, such as water supply, flood and drought management, irrigation, navigation, fisheries, environmental services and recreational activities, etc. These reservoir purposes can conflict at times but are also often complementary: a major challenge with multi‑purpose reservoirs is sharing water amongst competing users. This framework provides: tools to avoid/minimize tensions among users, governance issues for all stages and financial/economical models to develop and operate such multipurpose reservoirs. The SHARE concept was developed as a solution of these challenges. It is based on international case studies to find guidance on particular issues of multipurpose water reservoirs. By Emmanuel BRANCHE Version: Final ‑ April, 7th 2015 The author wish to thank in particular the people and organisations that participated in the discussions of the Steering Committee and those who provided comments on the draft main report: • EDF ‑ Electricité de France (Jean Comby) • ICOLD ‑ International Commission on Large Dams (Alessandro Palmieri) • IEA Hydro ‑ International Energy Agency Hydro (Niels Nielsen) • IHA ‑ International Hydropower Association (Richard Taylor
    [Show full text]
  • AGL Supplementary
    AGL submission to Australian Energy Market Commission Review of Effectiveness of Competition in the Electricity and Gas Retail Markets in South Australia Date: September 2008 Table of Contents Introduction........................................................................... 1 The South Australian Wholesale Market...................................... 2 The Torrens Island Power Station.............................................. 6 Summer 2007/2008................................................................ 7 Outlook for prices in South Australia........................................ 11 Comments on the UnitingCare Wesley Submissions ................... 13 Introduction AGL has made a submission to the Commission in support of the Commission’s finding in its Draft Report1 that the gas and electricity markets in South Australia are demonstrating effective competition. In that submission we said that: • AGL concurs with the Commission’s findings that the South Australian energy markets are competitive; • The high prices for the first quarter of 2008 reflected the structure of the South Australian market and the extreme summer that had occurred; and • Market churn was not directly related to high prices. Since making that submission, AGL has becoming increasingly concerned about a number of comments made by an interested party in submissions to the Commission’s Issues Paper and the Draft Report that claim there is a lack of competition in the wholesale electricity market in South Australia. AGL believes that the facts do not support these contrary submissions and the arguments made in them cannot be supported. We are therefore providing additional information to the Commission to more fully discuss pricing issues in South Australia and to counter these claims. AGL notes that similar claims of market failure and generator profiteering were made in the aftermath of the extreme summer of 2000/01.
    [Show full text]
  • Infrastructure Project Pipeline 2020-21
    February 2021 Tasmania’s 10 Year Infrastructure Pipeline Infrastructure Tasmania i Contents Contents ............................................................................................................................................................. i Minister’s message ............................................................................................................................................ ii 1. About the Pipeline ......................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 What is included in the Pipeline? ................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Purpose of the Pipeline .................................................................................................................................. 2 2. Infrastructure in the context of COVID-19 ....................................................................................................... 3 3. Analysis of Pipeline trends ............................................................................................................................. 5 3.1 Timing of spend by asset class ........................................................................................................................ 5 3.2 Project driver analysis ..................................................................................................................................... 6 3.3 Infrastructure class analysis
    [Show full text]