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State of the Energy Market 2011

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State of the Energy Market 2011 state of the energy market 2011 AUSTRALIAN ENERGY REGULATOR state of the energy market 2011 AUSTRALIAN ENERGY REGULATOR Australian Energy Regulator Level 35, The Tower, 360 Elizabeth Street, Melbourne Central, Melbourne, Victoria 3000 Email: [email protected] Website: www.aer.gov.au ISBN 978 1 921964 05 3 First published by the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission 2011 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 © Commonwealth of Australia 2011 This work is copyright. Apart from any use permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part may be reproduced without prior written permission from the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission. Requests and inquiries concerning reproduction and rights should be addressed to the Director Publishing, ACCC, GPO Box 3131, Canberra ACT 2601, or [email protected]. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This report was prepared by the Australian Energy Regulator. The AER gratefully acknowledges the following corporations and government agencies that have contributed to this report: Australian Bureau of Statistics; Australian Energy Market Operator; d-cyphaTrade; Department of Resources, Energy and Tourism (Cwlth); EnergyQuest; Essential Services Commission (Victoria); Essential Services Commission of South Australia; Independent Competition and Regulatory Commission (ACT); Independent Pricing and Regulatory Tribunal of New South Wales; Office of the Tasmanian Economic Regulator; and Queensland Competition Authority. The AER also acknowledges Mark Wilson for supplying photographic images. IMPORTANT NOTICE The information in this publication is for general guidance only. It does not constitute legal or other professional advice, and should not be relied on as a statement of the law in any jurisdiction. Because it is intended only as a general guide, it may contain generalisations. You should obtain professional advice if you have any specific concern. The ACCC has made every reasonable effort to provide current and accurate information, but it does not make any guarantees regarding the accuracy, currency or completeness of that information. Editor: Editor’s Mark, Melbourne Designer: True Characters, Melbourne Cover image: Tim Marsden (Newspix) Contents 1 Preface 2 MARKeT OVERVIeW 5 A Energy networks 10 B National Electricity Market 17 C Energy retail markets 21 D Upstream gas 24 chapter 1: NaTIONaL eLECTrIcITY MARKeT 25 1.1 Demand and capacity 25 1.2 Generation in the NEM 29 1.3 Trading arrangements 33 1.4 Spot electricity prices 39 1.5 Electricity futures 42 1.6 Generation investment 45 1.7 Demand side participation 46 1.8 Reliability of supply 49 1.9 Compliance monitoring and enforcement iii 52 chapter 2: eLECTrIcITY NetworKs 53 2.1 Electricity networks in the NEM 57 2.2 Economic regulation of electricity networks 60 2.3 Electricity network revenues 60 2.4 Electricity network investment 63 2.5 Operating and maintenance expenditure 65 2.6 Network quality of service 70 2.7 Electricity transmission congestion 73 2.8 Policy developments for electricity networks 74 2.9 Demand management and metering 76 chapter 3: GAS 77 3.1 Reserves and production 80 3.2 Domestic and international demand 81 3.3 Industry structure 84 3.4 Gas wholesale markets 86 3.5 Gas prices 88 3.6 Compliance monitoring and enforcement 89 3.7 Gas transmission 95 3.8 Upstream competition 95 3.9 Gas storage 96 3.10 Gas distribution 102 chapter 4: reTail eNergy marKeTs 103 4.1 Retail market structure 106 4.2 Vertical integration 108 4.3 Retail competition 109 4.4 Retail prices 115 4.5 Quality of retail service 118 aBBreviations iv STATE of the ENERGY market 2011 PrefaCe The Australian Energy Regulator’s fifth State of the energy market report provides a high level overview of energy market activity in Australia. The report is intended to meet the needs of a wide audience, including government, industry and the broader community. It supplements the AER’s extensive technical and compliance reporting on the energy sector. The 2011 report consists of a market overview, supported by chapters on the electricity, gas and energy retail sectors. The report focuses on activity over the past 12 – 18 months in those jurisdictions and areas in which the AER has regulatory responsibilities. TheState of the energy market is an evolving project, and the AER will continue to review its approach. In the meantime, I hope this edition will provide a valuable resource for market participants, policy makers and the wider community. Andrew Reeves Chairman 1 market oVerVIeW Paul Rovere (Fairfax) For many years Australia enjoyed relatively stable the rate of return on network investment, to provide electricity prices. But this situation has changed certainty for investors and allow the regulatory approach markedly, with substantial price increases since 2007. to keep pace with changing financing practices. The increases are mostly attributable to rising charges The Australian Energy Market Commission (AEMC) for energy networks — the poles and wires, and gas is consulting on the Rule change proposals, and will pipelines that transport energy. In some jurisdictions, make a determination in 2012. cost pressures have also resulted from wholesale While rising network costs have driven up household energy costs, retailer costs and margins, and climate energy bills, wholesale energy costs exerted less change policies (including renewable energy targets, pressure in 2010 – 11. In the spot market for electricity, incentives for small scale solar generation and energy benign weather conditions led to average prices falling efficiency schemes). significantly in most parts of the market. While this Rising network charges are being driven by a mix was a positive development, average spot prices are of factors that have increased the costs of building only a partial indicator of the energy costs that retailers and running electricity networks and gas pipelines. pay. Retailers and generators manage the risk of spot These factors include continued growth in peak energy price volatility by entering hedge contracts with each demand, stricter reliability and safety standards imposed other and through futures markets such as the Sydney by jurisdictional agencies, growth in customer numbers, Futures Exchange. the need to replace ageing equipment, and higher debt costs. But, increasingly, vertical integration between generators and retailers is being used as an alternative But the regulatory framework — the national energy to manage this risk. While it makes commercial sense Rules that set out how the Australian Energy Regulator for the entities concerned, vertical integration reduces (AER) must regulate electricity and gas networks — liquidity and contracting options in futures markets. has led to some price increases that are difficult to It thus drives up energy costs for independent retailers justify. The framework was introduced in 2006, and may pose a barrier to entry and expansion for both when capacity issues were emerging after many years independent generators and retailers. in which Australia had lived off the legacy of historical overinvestment in energy infrastructure. New Rules A related development in some regions is that were drafted to stimulate network investment by short term fluctuations in spot prices do not always locking down the regulatory decision making process. reflect the underlying cost of generation. Strategic While this approach has successfully increased network bidding — rather than changes in the underlying investment, it restricts the regulator from making costs of meeting demand — is sometimes driving very holistic assessments of how much of that investment high or very negative prices. When spot prices do is efficient or necessary. This restriction has led to not reflect underlying costs, market participants rely consumers paying more than necessary for a safe and on futures markets more heavily to manage risk and reliable energy supply. secure future earnings. However, significant vertical integration creates a more challenging risk management The AER in 2011 proposed Rule changes to both environment that may deter efficient investment promote efficient network investment and advance the by new entrants. long term interests of consumers. The proposals focus on allowing the regulator to make holistic and independent Reform in wholesale gas markets continued with the assessments of the costs of delivering safe and reliable launch in September 2010 of a short term trading energy services. This would allow the regulator to weigh market in Sydney and Adelaide. The market was up all relevant evidence and reach balanced decisions. extended to Brisbane in December 2011. While data The AER also proposed a new approach to setting errors have led to some price instability, the short term 4 STATE of the ENERGY market 2011 o m V Table 1 recent AER decisions — energy networks arket er PerIOd covered % chaNGe from esTIMaTed IMPacT ON reTail bill VI sector LOcaTION (5 Yrs to) PreVIOus 5 Year PerIOd fOr TYPIcaL hOusehOLd e W CAPEX OPEX Electricity (T) Tas 30 Jun 2014 67 29 2.3% rise (year 1), then 1% per year NSW 30 Jun 2014 73 28 9.3% to 10.4% rise (year 1), then cumulative Electricity (D) NSW 30 Jun 2014 37–116 24–39 } 16 – 35% rise (years 2 – 4) ACT 30 Jun 2014 59 43 4.1% rise (year 1), then 1.3% per year SA 30 Jun 2015 95 41 6.0% rise (year 1), then 4.4% per year Qld 30 Jun 2015 33–38 21 9.2% rise (year 1), then 2.6% per year Vic 31 Dec 2015 37–74 10–47 1.8% rise (year 1), then 2.6% per year Gas (T) NT 30 Jun 2016 76 54 na Gas (D) NSW 30 Jun 2015 60 12 8.0% rise (year 1), then 5.1% per year ACT 30 Jun 2015 66 28 7.7% rise (year 1), then 4.1% per year SA 30 Jun 2016 163 4 8.0% rise (year 1), then 5.1% per year Qld 30 Jun 2016 0–72 11–27 7.7% rise (year 1), then 4.1% per year Capex, capital expenditure; D, distribution; Opex, operating expenditure; T, transmission; na, Not applicable.
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