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ARIZONA, FLORIDA, and OKLAHOMA RUNOFF

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ARIZONA, FLORIDA, and OKLAHOMA RUNOFF PRIME-ARY PERSPECTIVE: ARIZONA, FLORIDA, and OKLAHOMA RUNOFF PRIME-ARY Perspectives is a series that will give you an overview of the most noteworthy results from each state's primary election, focusing on congressional districts that are likely to be most competitive in November, as well as those that will have new representation in 2019 because of retirements. As always, please do not hesitate to reach out to us with questions! ARIZONA Arizona will feature a number of highly competitive races in November, from statewide gubernatorial and Senate races to several House races. While Arizona was been reliably Republican in recent years, demographic changes combined with President Trump's unpopularity give Democrats an opportunity to make up ground here. GUBERNATORIAL Incumbent Governor Doug Ducey fended off a primary opponent from Arizona's Secretary of State, Ken Bennett, receiving 70% of the vote. Ducey's bid for a second term will be one of the most well-funded campaigns in the country, already having amassed along with the Republican Governors Association over $9 million of airtime. The race is rated as "Likely Republican." David Garcia (D) David Garcia won yesterday's three-way Democratic primary for governor with 48% of the vote. Garcia is a Mesa native and U.S. Army veteran who most recently ran for Arizona Superintendent of Public Instruction and lost in 2014. Garcia intends on capitalizing on the broken state of public education in Arizona, where statewide teacher strikes took place in April. If Garcia succeeds in November, he would make the state's first Latino governor since Raul Castro in 1975. SENATE Last October, in an impassioned speech on the Senate floor, Arizona's then- junior Senator Jeff Flake delivered remarks to not only announce his retirement at the end of his term, but to denounce what he called "reckless" and "undignified" speech and behavior from the White House. Flake served in Congress since 2000, and in the Senate since 2012. His seat is now up for grabs in November. In the wake of the passing of Arizona's former senior senator, John McCain, questions now surround both of Arizona's senate seats. Arizona state law requires Governor Doug Ducey (R) to appoint an interim senator to serve through 2020, when a special election will then take place to fill the remainder of the late senator's term. McCain was easily reelected in 2016 to a term that ends in 2022. Governor Ducey will announce a replacement after McCain's funeral. Martha McSally (R) Martha McSally easily won the Republican primary for U.S. Senate yesterday with 52% of the vote. McSally was viewed as the strongly preferred candidate for most Republicans in Washington, with her opponents being two highly controversial figures. Over the course of the campaign, she attempted to thread the needle between being anti-establishment while also being a loyal backer of President Trump. In 2010, McSally retired from 26 years of service as a colonel in the U.S. Air Force, and launched a bid for Congress two years later. She ultimately came up short in a close race against Democrat Ron Barber, but then went on to defeat him in 2014. With Democrats playing defense in most Senate battles this Fall, the DSCC has eyed the Arizona seat as a plausible pick-up opportunity, with most polls showing Sinema ahead in a head-to-head matchup. Kyrsten Sinema (D) Democrat Kyrsten Sinema defeated Deedra Abboud with 80% of the vote in a two-way Democratic primary. Sinema first began her political career in 2005 when being elected to the Arizona House of Representatives, and subsequently elected to the Arizona State Senate in 2010. Since first being elected to Congress in 2012, Sinema has amassed a more center-left platform, joining the moderate Blue Dog Caucus and the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus. In a state where Donald Trump won by just 4%, Sinema is one of the Democratic Party's top candidates to flip a Senate seat in 2018. AZ-01 Incumbent Tom O'Halleran (D) ran unopposed in yesterday's primary. He will defend his seat against Wendy Rogers for his second term in Congress. AZ-1 is the geographically largest district in the state, stretching along eastern and northwestern Arizona, as well as down south to the outskirts of Phoenix and Tucson. Donald Trump edged this district by just a single point, while Democrat Tom O'Halleran won it with a more comfortable seven points. Characterized as a "likely Democratic" district by Cook this cycle, Wendy Rogers will have an uphill battle to guarantee O'Halleran remains a one-term congressman. Wendy Rogers (R) While the results of this primary are still technically pending with 72% of precincts reporting, Republican Wendy Rogers is currently in the lead. Rogers is a retired Air Force pilot who has made the issue of allegiance to the president and his agenda as the focal point of her campaign. AZ-02 The mostly urban district contains the majority of the city of Tucson, stretching east to include the entire southeastern corner of the state. It has a Cook PVI score of R+1 and is considered "lean Democratic" this cycle. Ann Kirkpatrick (D) In a tight seven-way Democratic primary, Ann Kirkpatrick emerged victorious with 41% of the vote. Kirkpatrick previously represented AZ-1 in Congress from 2012-2016, ultimately losing to John McCain for a senate bid in 2016. With incumbent Martha McSally's departure to run for Senate, Democrats are eyeing this district as a plausible pick-up opportunity in November. Lea Marquez Peterson (R) In a four-way Republican primary, Lea Marquez Peterson emerged victorious with 33% of the vote in yesterday's primary. Peterson is small business owner and the head of Tucson's Hispanic Chamber of Commerce. On the campaign trail she has advocated for term limits in Congress and has also been cautious to fully embrace Trump. AZ-06 The primarily urban district contains the mostly northeastern suburbs of Phoenix, including the cities of Scottdale, Paradise Valley, and Fountain Hills. While the district has a Cook PVI Score of R+9, it's been given a "likely Republican" categorization. Incumbent Dave Schweikert (R) ran unopposed in yesterday's primary. He will defend his seat vying for a 5th term against Democrat Heather Ross in November. Heather Ross (D) Democrat Heather Ross won 40% of the vote in a three-way Democratic primary. Ross is a Scottsdale native who has spent her career as a nurse practitioner, professor, and scientist. As a healthcare professional, she has campaigned largely on healthcare issues and has been vocal against Republican efforts to repeal Obamacare. FLORIDA Always one of the most watched states on election day, this year will be no different for the state of Florida. In addition to numerous competitive House races, a gubernatorial election and a Senate race will feature prominently in both Democratic and Republican strategies. GUBERNATORIAL With incumbent governor Rick Scott (R) term-limited and running for the U.S. Senate, this year's gubernatorial election will feature new candidates from both parties. The race is currently rated as a "Toss Up" and features candidates from each party that are likely to gin-up enthusiasm from their respective bases. Andrew Gillum (D) The thirty-nine year old Mayor of Tallahassee was unquestionably the underdog in this race. He beat out a handful of well-funded candidates, including former Congresswoman Gwen Graham, the daughter of former Florida Governor Bob Graham, who was the favorite. Gillum frequently pointed out that he has the only non-millionaire in the race. He ran on a liberal platform and participated in a "sit in" at current Gov. Rick Scott's office to protest the state's controversial "stand your ground" law. Gillum will undoubtedly be able to energize the state's liberal faction but may be haunted by an ongoing FBI investigation of public corruption into Tallahassee City Hall - though it should be noted that Gillum has not been implicated in any way by the investigation. Ron DeSantis (R) Styling himself in the vein of President Trump and armed with an endorsement from him, Rep. Ron DeSantis was able to beat Florida Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam, who had long been considered a shoo-in for the nomination. DeSantis, who currently represents the state's 6th District (located on the northern Atlantic coast of the Florida), chose not to run for a fourth term in Congress. Instead, he ran in the primary as a Trumpian conservative, touting building the wall and standing up for gun owners. He made news this morning after appearing on Fox News and warning Floridians not to "monkey this up" by voting for Gillum - a statement many interpreted as having racial connotations, though the Congressman's staff said it was simply a turn of phrase that he uses frequently. SENATE Incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson (D) will face his toughest battle for reelection this year. The current Ranking Member of the Senate Commerce Committee, Nelson is running for his 4th term. However, his campaign has struggled with an enthusiasm gap and polls have indicated he is having trouble securing the support of the state's Latino community, particularly those that came to the state from Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria hit last year. Additionally, the ongoing crisis of the red tide algal bloom that is plaguing the western coast of the state, costing millions of tourist dollars and jobs. Each candidate has blamed the other's inaction and policies as contributing to the problem. The race is currently rated as a "Toss Up." Rick Scott (R) Being term-limited as Governor, Rick Scott decided to run for the U.S.
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