Ballot design, voter intentions, and representation: A study of the 2018 midterm election in Florida1 Michael C. Herron2 Michael D. Martinez3 Daniel A. Smith4 July 1, 2019 1Earlier versions of this paper were presented at Congress & The Presidency: Politics in 2018, Saint Anselm College, March 30, 2019, the 2019 Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, and at the School of Social and Political Sciences of the University of Glasgow, June 13, 2019. The authors thank David Cottrell, Jonathan Chipman, and Luis Alvarez Leon for guid- ance with geographical information systems, Brian Amos and Jacqueline McInerny for research assistance, and Caitlin Ostroff for data. 2Professor of Government, Dartmouth College. 6108 Silsby Hall, Hanover, NH 03755-3547 (
[email protected]). 3Professor of Political Science, University of Florida. 208 Anderson Hall, Gainesville, FL 32605-7325 (
[email protected]). 4Professor of Political Science, University of Florida. 303 Anderson Hall, Gainesville, FL 32605-7325 (
[email protected]). Conference draft as of July 1, 2019 Abstract Confusing ballots muddle the connection between voter intentions and votes, diminishing the ability of elections to facilitate representation in political institutions. This motivates our examination of the 2018 midterm election in Florida, where the ballot used in Broward County yielded an abnormally high number of undervotes in Florida’s United States Sen- ate race. We offer cross-sectional and temporal analyses that eliminate explanations for Broward’s Senate undervote that do not turn on ballot design. Respectively, these analyses compare Broward County and its precincts to other counties and their precincts and com- pare elections in 2016 with those in 2018.