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The Response of the Burton Green Parish Council to the Coventry Local Modelling Report, December 2016

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The Response of the Burton Green Parish Council to the Coventry Local Modelling Report, December 2016 THE RESPONSE OF THE BURTON GREEN PARISH COUNCIL TO THE COVENTRY LOCAL MODELLING REPORT, DECEMBER 2016. INTRODUCTION This parish council considers that the projections of population and employment growth since the base year of 2013 up to 2034 may be unreliable. More importantly, we believe that the Planners have failed to recognise the impact of neighbouring housing developments on our transport infrastructure and in so doing have reached a conclusion: “the Cromwell Lane development does not have a significant impact on the total network delay or average speed” which is unsustainable. GROWTH IN HOUSING AND JOBS It is possible, if the Modelling Report is to be believed, that the population will grow by 18% and another 25,000 houses will be built in the period between 2013 and 2034 but it is also possible that these forecasts could prove wide of the mark. Projecting the future, in an uncertain world, is a precarious occupation whatever models are used, especially when it comes to predicting jobs. It seems that the consultants from Parsons Brinckerhoff, a multinational engineering and design firm, anticipate 28,200 new jobs in this period. For example, 15,000 jobs with the Friargate Regeneration Scheme, 4,250 at Eastern Green,1191 in the town centre and 5,000at Whitley/Whitley East and so on. Hopefully these assumptions are sound but they may be over optimistic. Certainly the positivity of this report conflicts sharply with the report by the respected Institute of Public Policy Research, “Britain in the 2020s.”According to the authors, the world of work will be revolutionised, with millions of jobs in retail and manufacturing disappearing as a result of automation and the internet. It forecasts that 60% of jobs in retail and another 600,000 jobs in manufacturing will disappear. (The Guardian, Dec 29th) Obviously the people in Burton Green hope the Coventry Modelling Report will prove to be more robust but it is impossible to be certain. PRESENT TRAFFIC SITUATION IN BURTON GREEN. The following comments are based on the observations and experiences of Burton Green residents and they are perhaps more compelling than CASM, a multi model transport model developed by Coventry City Council and Highways England. What cannot be denied is that there is a greater volume of traffic in Burton Green than ever before. Congestion is especially bad in the peak am period between 8-00am and 9-00am where queues over 300 metres are not uncommon in Cromwell Lane as drivers approach the Westwood Heath junction. The problem has been exacerbated by the increase of traffic from Banner Lane since the building of the bridge over the WCML. These motorists have priority over those coming from Burton Green who have difficulty in turning right into Westwood Heath Road. It may be, as the Report intimates, that there is a delay between 20 and 40 seconds for motorists coming from Coventry but for those coming from the opposite direction, the delays are much longer. The Westwood Heath/Cromwell Lane junction is acknowledged in the report as having a ratio of volume to capacity (RFC) of over-85 which signifies that it has congestion problems. Indeed the figure of 1-11 is higher than any other junction in the area. THE IMPACT OF THE DEVELOPMENT AT CROMWELL LANE ON BURTON GREEN. It is difficult to believe that motorists from 240 houses will only experience a delay of a couple of seconds once the development is in place and that the increase in junction delay is only around 20 seconds. However it is possible that there will be no impact on the Westwood Heath/Cromwell Lane junction as motorists from the estate will find it impossible to turn right at the exit road near to the junction faced with a continuous stream of traffic coming from the Coventry direction. Indeed without traffic lights, they will be perhaps forced to turn left and approach the University via Charter Avenue and it could be, as the Report suggests, that this junction will eventually be worse than the Westwood Heath junction with a RFC figure rising to 1-32. However the impact of this development cannot be approached in isolation from the other developments in Warwick District and Solihull. THE WARWICK DISTRICT LOCAL PLAN. WESTWOOD HEATH. It seems from an email from Lisa Albrighton that Coventry Highways has made an allowance for the building of 450 houses in Westwood Heath and that this development will have no adverse consequences on traffic flow in this area. However the traffic assumptions of County Highways are far from convincing especially as they admitted at the Inspector’s enquiry that they were not evidence based on modelling data but at best on informed guesswork. Although most traffic will head in the direction of the University, there surely will be journeys towards Cromwell Lane, including perhaps towards local schools, which will increase the problems at the junction. It is surprising that Coventry planners have made an allowance for 450 houses since Warwick District is adamant that additional roads will be required if the development exceeds 425 houses. On that subject it is probable that phase 2 of the intended road build will have taken place before 2031 with a road linking up with Westwood Heath Road through the safeguarded land past Bockenden Road. Lisa Albrighton states that any additional homes are linked to a new highway infrastructure which are not currently planned for this plan period to 2031 but the Coventry Local Plan Modelling Report covers the period from 2013 to 2034. Indeed it is possible that phase 3, a road to the A452, might be completed before 2034 which could well be a continuation of Westwood Heath Road across Cromwell Lane and through the Meriden Gap, skirting the Cromwell Lane Development. If built, these two roads would have a huge impact on traffic flows and completely undermine the forecasts in the Report and it would be incredible if planners, supposedly working in harmony across the boundaries, could allow such a road as an after thought! THE WARWICK DISTRICT LOCAL PLAN. BURROW HILL NURSERY, RED LANE. It is also intended that 90 houses will be constructed on this site in Burton Green. At least prospective parents will not use their cars to transport their children to school but almost certainly many residents will make their way along Cromwell Lane, joining up with other motorists from the new developments at Cromwell Lane and Westwood Heath, thus exacerbating the present situation. Although the numbers are not on the scale of the developments in Keresley and Eastern Green, they are significant enough to disrupt traffic flows in Burton Green and of course the congestion will be aggravated by developments in Berkswell. THE SOLIHULL LOCAL PLAN. BERKSWELL. It has become abundantly clear that planners from Coventry and Warwick District have not recognised the impact of housing developments in Solihull, especially those in Berkswell and Balsall Common, on traffic flow in Burton Green. There is no industry and few shops in these neighbouring parishes. Just because people have chosen to live in the Solihull Metropolitan Authority, it doesn’t mean that they intend to work there. On the contrary, Coventry is a much more attractive destination as journeys to Coventry, especially to the south of the city, are much shorter than those to distant Solihull. For example, the prospective residents of the two newly proposed developments of 800 houses at the Barretts Farm at Station Avenue and 250 houses at Windmill Lane will be aware that they can reach the University campus in normal time within 10 minutes, even though that would be impossible during peak am time!. The assumption in the Coventry Modelling Report that journeys from the Solihull Borough will reduce from 5% to 4% by 2034 defies logic and it is more likely that the percentage will increase. 9,000 extra houses were already accommodated in the 2013 Solihull Local Plan but in the Local Plan Review at least another 4,000 new homes will be built. Of course this influx from Berkswell will come at a cost to Burton Green and almost certainly confound the assumptions of the planning fraternity in both Coventry and Warwick District and County who believe that the traffic infrastructure is sufficiently resilient to accommodate the proposed housing developments. THE NEED FOR MITIGATION AND ITS IMPACT ON TRAFFIC ASSUMPTIONS It is almost inevitable that the priority junction at Cromwell Lane/ Westwood Heath Road will be changed. Indeed the Report accepts that those junctions with a RFC over -85 “will require additional investigation and potentially mitigation.” (p87) It could be a roundabout or traffic lights or both. Whatever system is chosen, it will undermine the traffic assumptions of the planners. For example, if a roundabout is considered, it would alter the whole dynamics of the traffic flow. Motorists from Burton Green would no longer be waiting in long queues to turn right into Westwood Heath Road as they would have priority over those coming from the Tile Hill direction. Similarly if a lights system was operated, which would perhaps have to accommodate the exit road from the Cromwell Lane development, it would have a significant impact on the total network delay or average speed, contrary to the assumptions in the Report. It could also have a dramatic impact on the Cromwell Lane/Charter Avenue junction as many motorists could avoid the Westwood Heath junction and travel towards the University along Charter Avenue. CONCLUSION It is doubtful whether the Report’s employment projections are reliable. However there can be no doubt that the housing development at Cromwell Lane in conjunction with those at Westwood Heath, Red Lane and Solihull will make our roads more congested and probably more dangerous.
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