The Chronicle Newsletter of the Council on Foreign Relations — Fall 2016
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The Chronicle Newsletter of the Council on Foreign Relations — Fall 2016 New Task Force Recommends Sharpening Strategy on North Korea Page 1 CFR’s Transition 2016 Explains the Next Administration’s Foreign Policy Challenges Page 2 Survey Finds Critical Gaps in College-Aged Students’ Global Literacy Page 6 Foreign Affairs Examines the Power of Populist Rage Page 11 Plus CFR Hosts First Wikipedia Edit-a-Thon on Women in Foreign Policy Page 8 New Books by Mallaby, Alden, Tepperman, and Rogoff Page 13 GLOBAL COMMUNICATIONS OFFICERS AND MEDIA RELATIONS Carla A. Hills Suzanne E. Helm Lisa Shields Co-Chairman Vice President, Philanthropy and Vice President Robert E. Rubin Corporate Relations Iva Zoric Co-Chairman Jan Mowder Hughes Director David M. Rubenstein Vice President, Human Resources Anya Schmemann Vice Chairman and Administration Washington Director, Global Richard N. Haass Caroline Netchvolodoff Communications and Outreach President Vice President, Education Andrew Palladino Keith Olson Lisa Shields Deputy Director Executive Vice President Vice President, Global Melinda Wuellner and Chief Financial Officer Communications and Media Relations Deputy Director James M. Lindsay Dustin Kingsmill Senior Vice President, Lynda Hammes Associate Director Director of Studies, and Publisher, Foreign Affairs Jenny Mallamo Maurice R. Greenberg Chair Jeffrey A. Reinke Associate Director Nancy D. Bodurtha Secretary of the Corporation Samantha Tartas Vice President, Meetings Assistant Director and Membership Megan Daley Irina A. Faskianos Social Media Coordinator Vice President, National Program and Outreach Eugene Steinberg Assistant Editor DIRECTORS PUBLISHING John P. Abizaid Susan Hockfield Zoë Baird Donna J. Hrinak Patricia Dorff Alan S. Blinder Shirley Ann Jackson Editorial Director Mary McInnis Boies James Manyika Elizabeth Dana David G. Bradley William H. McRaven Production Editor Nicholas Burns Jami Miscik Tony Coles Janet A. Napolitano Erik Crouch David M. Cote Eduardo J. Padrón Associate Editor Steven A. Denning John Paulson Sumit Poudyal Blair Effron Richard L. Plepler Assistant Editor Laurence D. Fink Ruth Porat Stephen Friedman David M. Rubenstein Timothy F. Geithner Robert E. Rubin Don Pollard Richard N. Haass (ex officio) Richard E. Salomon Sardari.com Stephen J. Hadley James G. Stavridis Photography Peter B. Henry Margaret G. Warner J. Tomilson Hill Vin Weber ObjectiveSubject Carla A. Hills Daniel H. Yergin Design HONORARY AND EMERITUS Madeleine K. Albright Front cover photo: A missile is carried Martin S. Feldstein by a military vehicle during a parade Leslie H. Gelb in Pyongyang, North Korea. (Reuters/ Maurice R. Greenberg Jason Lee) Peter G. Peterson David Rockefeller U.S. Should Sharpen Strategy and Enlist China to Counter Threat from North Korea, Says CFR Task Force A new CFR-sponsored Independent Task incentives for North Korea’s cooperation Force report, A Sharper Choice on North by covering a wider range of issues. Korea: Engaging China for a Stable Northeast Protect human rights. Continually exert Asia, finds that the United States’ policy of pressure on North Korea to respect UN “strategic patience” with North Korea will human rights resolutions and support the neither halt that country’s recurring and suspension of North Korea’s credentials at dangerous cycle of provocation nor ensure the United Nations if it does not comply. the stability of Northeast Asia in the future. Enforce sanctions and escalate financial The Task Force is chaired by Mike Mul- pressure. Expand sanctions to “restrict len, retired admiral and former chairman the full range of North Korea’s criminal of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, andSam Nunn, activities.” former U.S. senator and co-chairman and chief executive officer of the Nuclear Threat Strengthen deterrence and defense. Initiative. Without a shift in strategy, the Strengthen the U.S. alliance with South group concludes, the next U.S. president Korea and Japan by issuing a “collective may be confronted by a North Korea that security commitment declaring that a has the ability to strike the U.S. homeland. North Korean attack against any one of The Task Force urges U.S. officials to these states is an attack against all.” encourage China to work with the United The bipartisan Task Force is composed States, Japan, and South Korea to establish of seventeen distinguished experts from di- a nonnuclear and unified Korean Peninsula. verse backgrounds. The project is directed To the extent that China declines to coop- by Adam Mount, senior fellow at the Cen- erate and North Korea continues to refuse ter for American Progress and a former to negotiate, however, the report finds that CFR Stanton nuclear security fellow. the United States will have no choice but to work with Japan and Korea to “consider Read the Task Force report at more assertive military and political ac- www.cfr.org/DPRKSharperChoice. tions, including those that directly threaten the existence of the [North Korean] regime and its nuclear and missile capabilities.” The Task Force proposes that the United States take steps to sharpen the conse- quences for North Korea: Promote a stable and prosperous Northeast Asia. Enlist China’s help and work with regional partners to jointly plan for the future of the Korean Peninsula, including planning for militarized crises, collapse scenarios, and the role of a unified Korea in Northeast Asian security. Restructure negotiations. Propose restruc- tured negotiations that would increase Adam Mount, Mike Mullen, and Sam Nunn The Chronicle, Fall 2016 1 CFR Covers Transition 2016 As the nation prepares for an unprece- McMahon have launched a time-limited dented presidential transition, CFR is play- special series called The President’s Inbox. ing an active role in providing resources for The podcast, which will run until Inaugura- understanding the foreign policy challenges tion Day, brings a different CFR expert in President-Elect Donald J. Trump will face each week to to examine one particular for- and what his stated positions on related is- eign policy issue confronting the next presi- sues are. The Council’s award-winning web dent. Both podcasts are available on CFR. hub on the election, Campaign 2016, has org, iTunes, and on many other platforms. been relaunched as Transition 2016, and CFR will be hosting a series of meetings will now serve as a hub for all of transition- on the transition process, the first of which related resources, including new Council “Navigating the U.S. Presidential Transi- Special Reports, blogs, expert briefs, and tion,” will be held on November 21. The even reactions and recommendations from Council will also be hosting Facebook Live CFR’s Council of Councils think tank affili- chats with experts from around the Council. ates from around the world. To discuss what foreign policy will look like in Building on the success of their regular a Trump administration and share questions podcast, The World Next Week, Senior Vice in advance, follow CFR on Facebook. President, Director of Studies, and Mau- rice R. Greenberg Chair James M. Lind- Visit www.cfr.org/campaign2016 and follow say and CFR.org Managing Editor Robert CFR on Facebook. The Chronicle, Fall 2016 2 World Leaders Speak to the Council This September, the Council once again opened its doors to world leaders visiting New York for the annual UN General As- sembly (UNGA). Presidents, vice presi- dents, prime ministers, foreign ministers, and UN officials discussed topics ranging from security in Europe and the Middle East to global trade and health. In conversation with CFR President Richard N. Haass, U.S. Vice President Joe Biden discussed, among other subjects, U.S. policy in Syria and the Middle East. He remarked, “I am not a big fan of red lines. I am not a proponent of laying down markers unless you’ve thought through the second, third, and fourth step that you’re going to have to take and almost assuredly will have to take, in order to accomplish your initial goal. And my view is that Syria U.S. Vice President Joe Biden is as, if not more, complicated than Iraq.” Responding to a question about whether the United States exercised too much, of Congress, including John McCain, my rather than too little, military restraint in friend, who would support any American Syria, Biden reminded the audience that troops on the ground.” “no foreign policy can be sustained without In a separate event later that week, Ira- the informed consent of the American peo- nian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad ple. There wasn’t a single solitary member Zarif also expressed support for a political CNN GPS Host Fareed Zakaria and Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif The Chronicle, Fall 2016 3 solution to the Syrian conflict and criticized Saudi Arabia’s actions in the region: “I think the problem in Syria is that many players con- tinue to believe there is a military solution. And many players continue to believe that they can play with these various extremist or- ganizations to gain strategic advantage.” On the so-called “rebalance to Asia,” a major foreign policy legacy of the Obama administration, Haass pressed Biden on whether it could be possible without the passing of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal. Biden expressed some optimism that the TPP might pass before the end of the year and said that the United States could execute the rebalance with- out the TPP, but “not nearly as well.” New Zealand Prime Minister John Key, also an advocate of the deal, remarked at another meeting that if the United States were to fail to ratify the TPP, it would be a lost op- portunity not only “for the consumers and business, but also for the geopolitics of the [Asia-Pacific] region because, in the end, if that vacuum isn’t filled by the United States, it will be filled by somebody else.” Also that week, Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi called upon his fellow Eu- ropean leaders to resist the divisive politics sweeping through his continent: “If we in- vest in fear, we are finished.