The Struggle for Israel - DocsLib

sign in sign up

<<

Home , Abba Eban, Aluf, Ari Shavit, Ayelet Shaked, Ayman Odeh, Benjamin Netanyahu

THE TRUTH ABOUT TRADE AND JOBS

JULY/AUGUST 2016 / •

The

• Struggle for Israel

FOREIGNAFFAIRS.COM

MJ16_cover_SUB.indd All Pages 5/20/16 1:13 PM THE STRUGGLE FOR ISRAEL

t’s common knowledge that the it, Netanyahu now leads the most right- Middle East is in turmoil these days wing government in Israel’s history, Iand that there are major tensions which Benn argues is allowing Netanyahu between the United States and one o its to realize his long-held dream: replacing crucial allies in the region, Israel. Less Israel’s old moderate and secular elite commonly understood are the profound with a new hard-line and religious one. ways in which Israel itsel is changing. Robert Danin, an American diplo- In important respects, the country matic veteran o the now-moribund no longer resembles the image many peace process, examines the new threats Westerners still picture—the liberal and often overlooked new opportunities Zionist state o David Ben-Gurion, facing Israel’s foreign-policy makers. Abba Eban, Golda Meir, and Yitzhak As’ad Ghanem o the University o Rabin. The socialist Ashkenazi elite Haifa explores the plight o Israel’s that used to dominate Israel’s politics Arab citizens, who are enjoying unprec- has long since fractured and faded away. edented material gains even as they face Sephardic Jews, Soviet immigrants, unprecedented threats to their political settlers, the religious right, secular rights. And Amos Harel, one o Israel’s Jews, and Arab Israelis now vie for inu- leading defense analysts, describes the ence. In foreign policy, meanwhile, what challenges facing the country’s vaunted Israel stands for, and who it stands military, including the recent wave o with, is also in play. “lone wol ” knife attacks. To scout this new landscape, we’ve Finally, Martin Kramer o Shalem turned to some o Israel’s leading poli- College oers a vigorous dissent, noting ticians and observers. What emerges is that in many respects, Israel is better a picture o a country enjoying a rare o today than ever before. What has moment o relative peace with most changed, in his view, is less Israel o its neighbors, even as it experiences than the attitudes o others, including intensifying conicts at home. Washington—whose fecklessness and Leading o the package are interviews withdrawal from the Middle East repre- with two o Israel’s most powerful sent a real but man ageable problem for women: Ayelet Shaked, the current justice the Jewish state. minister, and Tzipi Livni, a former justice Israelis disagreeing with one another is minister and former foreign minister. hardly new. But the bitterness o today’s Their contrasting visions starkly illumi- ghts underscores the depth o the nate the country’s current political divide. changes and choices facing the country. Next, Alu Benn, editor in chie o —Jonathan Tepperman, Managing Editor Haaretz, describes Israel’s transformation through the story o Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s long career. A moderate when circumstances required

03_commentdiv_Blues.indd 2 5/19/16 3:38 PM THE STRUGGLE FOR ISRAEL

Israel—at least the largely secular and progressive version of Israel that once captured the world’s imagination—is over. —Aluf Benn

A Conversation With Ayelet Shaked 2 Israel’s Second-Class Citizens As’ad Ghanem 37 A Conversation With Tzipi Livni 10 Israel’s Evolving Military STAVROS The End o the Old Israel Amos Harel 43 Aluf Benn 16 PAVLIDES Israel and the Post-American Israel Among the Nations Middle East Robert M. Danin 28 Martin Kramer 51

03_commentdiv_Blues_2.indd 3 5/19/16 5:42 PM bill, which the Knesset has tried to pass for Ministering more than ve years without success, will pass next month [in June]. It’s also very Justice important; it gives the Shabak [Israel’s internal security service, also known as the Shin Bet] and the police new tools A Conversation With to ght terror. Ayelet Shaked What kind of tools? yelet Shaked is a relative For example, it allows them, in specic new comer to Israeli politics. circumstances, to prohibit a suspect from A Shaked, 40, served as Benjamin seeing a lawyer for 21 days. Things Netanyahu’s oce manager before like that. breaking with the prime minister and THE STRUGGLE FOR ISRAEL joining Naftali Bennett’s Jewish Home What’s it like to be a leader of the Jewish party in 2012 and then winning election Home—a political party known as the to the Knesset in 2013. Following the main voice for religious settlers—as a 2015 election, Shaked was named Israel’s secular woman and Tel Aviv resident? minister o justice. Since then, she has The fact that I was elected to my post courted controversy with a number o in an open party primary shows that moves that critics call undemocratic, Jewish Home voters are very open and such as promoting a bill that would very liberal. I see my party as a bridge highlight which nongovernmental organ- between the Orthodox and the secular. izations (s) get a majority o their We believe that we should all live funding from foreign governments. together and respect one another. Shaked, who worked as a software engineer before entering politics, recently You currently serve under Prime Minister spoke to Foreign Aairs’ managing editor, Netanyahu. You started your career Jonathan Tepperman, in Tel Aviv. working for him directly but then broke with him in 2012 and left Likud. What You’ve been justice minister for a year are the main dierences today between now. Which accomplishments you are you and Netanyahu, you and Likud? most proud of? The main dierence between the Jewish One is the nomination o judges. I’ve Home and Likud, apart from religion and

already nominated 100 judges [to ll vacant ideology, is that we object to a Palestinian ILIA YEFIMOVICH posts], which is a lot. Also, we are doing state, while Likud, and the prime a lot o things to reform the legal system, minister, supported one. to alleviate court backlogs, to reform the To return to your earlier question, bankruptcy law. I’m trying to nd any I’m also trying to promote Arab society business regulations that I can relax. in Israel, by creating new courts in Arab / GETTY The transparency bill is also important, cities and appointing a woman as a qadi

but it hasn’t passed yet. And the terror [an Islamic judge, with jurisdiction over IMAGES family law] for the rst time. This interview has been edited and condensed.

2

JA16.indb 2 5/16/16 7:41 PM Niss as ipsunt eum, omniet veliquatet eos res ut doler omnihiliquis abora dem eos aut laboreShaked lorem in sipim.Tel Aviv, February 2015

04_Shaked_pp2_9Bb.indd 3 5/16/16 7:59 PM Ministering Justice

Are these reforms meant to address the by funding specic s that serve inequalities between Arab Israelis and their ideology. Jewish Israelis? There’s no inequality. According to the By “some countries,” do you mean the law, everyone is equal. But o course, United States and Europe? we need to invest more in some Arab Mainly Europe. And by the way, it’s not towns. And the government just passed that [such funding] won’t be allowed. It’s a big plan to do so. allowed in a democracy. But I think that the public has the right to know about it. So the problem is not one of legal equality but one of resources? Critics say that the real point of the law Yes, sometimes. But the government is is to shame these organizations by now xing that. And here in my ministry, making their members wear special nine percent o employees are Arabs badges in the Knesset and by imposing or Druze. a public label that would damage these groups’ legitimacy. To return to politics, there are rumors First o all, the badges aren’t part o that the prime minister is trying to the law. But by the way, every lobbyist create a big new party of the right, which in the Knesset needs to wear a badge. would absorb all the smaller right-wing So even i the badges were in the law, parties. What do you think of that? it wouldn’t be bad. It’s not something we’ve really talked Second, it’s not about shaming. It’s about. I don’t think it’s realistic. But about the right to know. That’s all. we’d never rule anything out. Do you feel that foreign governments Some critics, including U.S. Ambassador should not be funding NGOs in Israel? Dan Shapiro, have criticized the NGO I think that foreign governments should transparency bill as an attempt to muzzle not fund political s in Israel. I don’t dissent. Why is the bill necessary? think that the U.S. administration would Why publicly identify those NGOs that like it i¬ Israel, for example, were to fund get more than half of their support from an in the United States that sued foreign governments? American soldiers for their service The amount o attention this bill is in Afghanistan. getting is absurd. There are so many other important things that we are Do you see the NGOs that would be working on, yet for some reason, this targeted by the law, such as Breaking bill gets so much attention. It’s just a the Silence, as foreign agents or threats transparency bill. I an gets more to Israel? than hal o its money from a foreign They are not threatening Israel. Our government, it’s the right o the democracy is very strong; we can handle citizens o¬ Israel to know that. Why? them. But I think they are doing damage Because some countries have found a to Israel outside the country, by spreading way to interfere in the internal aairs a lot o± lies and distorting the picture. o¬ Israel—not through diplomacy but Sometimes i you only tell hal a truth,

4

JA16.indb 4 5/16/16 7:41 PM it’s a lie. They take one specic case and generalize it, depict it as i it shows the way all soldiers behave. They’re doing it on university campuses in the United States. It’s causing damage to Israel. #1 in Would the legislation also aect groups on the right? International I haven’t checked which s would be aected by the law. Relations

There will be four to ﬁve vacancies on the Supreme Court next year, and you’ll get to help nominate the replacements. You’ve been quite critical of the court in the past and have tried to limit its ability to over- #1 in rule decisions by the executive or the Knesset. What role do you think a supreme Military court should play in a democratic society? A very important role, o course. The court’s job is to resolve disputes and Studies prevent the state from carrying out actions that are illegal. I criticize the court when it intervenes in matters o policy, not in matters o law. International Do you have a problem in principle with judicial review based on interpretation Security of Israel’s Basic Laws? Setting the agenda for No, I don’t. But I think that [the court] scholarship on international should use that power very, very rarely, security affairs for forty years. and only in very prominent cases where there’s been a violation o the law—not on questions o policy.

In the United States, the Supreme Court uses what it calls ”the political question Yours for 40% off. doctrine” to avoid getting involved in questions it deems largely political. Subscribe now. Does a similar doctrine exist here? Yes, but the reality is dierent. The U.S. bit.ly/ISEC16 Supreme Court is also activist. But U.S. Supreme Court justices are selected by politicians. In Israel, it’s done by com- Rankings sourced by 2014 Thomson Reuters Journal Citation Reports and 2015 Google Scholar Metrics.

5

FA 5_rev.indd 1 5/18/16 12:21 PM JA16.indb 5 5/16/16 7:41 PM Ministering Justice

mittee. I’m the head o the committee, self-destruction reminds him of Germany but there are three Supreme Court justices in the 1930s. How do you interpret such on it as well, and we can’t make a selection criticisms? without them. So the Supreme Court You have to distinguish between the judges have a lot o in´uence over the two. First o all, Yair Golan [the ² ’s selection o their replacements. deputy chie o sta] retracted what he said and said there is no room for such Would you like to change that? a comparison. There are a few things we cannot do in Regarding [Freedom House], I want this coalition. I’m not going to bang my to hear facts, not talk about atmosphere. head against a wall. But we do favor a law Israel is one o the strongest democra- that would give judges the formal power cies in the world, with close to absolute to cancel a law. This power was never freedom o expression. You can see that given to them by law; they just took it. by looking at our social networks. But the law would also give the Knesset the power to override the court, like So you don’t worry that any of the Parliament can in Canada, for example. measures you’ve mentioned could chill freedom of expression here? But in Canada, Parliament can only No, and they’re not intended to. overrule the court on constitutional issues if it speciﬁes that it is doing so What about the new bill that would allow notwithstanding the court’s opposition. the suspension of Knesset members for That acts as a check on Parliament. making anti-Zionist statements? What we’re talking about in Israel is I don’t like this law, and I don’t support requiring a big majority, more than it. I don’t think it’s necessary. I only voted 60 percent o the Knesset, to do so. for it out o coalition discipline. But it’s unnecessary. I think that Knesset mem- Aren’t you worried this could give rise bers should say whatever they want. And to a tyranny of the majority? Because by the way, no one will use this law. the purpose of an unelected judiciary is to act as a check on the legislature You recently proposed extending Israeli to prevent pure majoritarian rule. civil law to settlements in the West Bank. I think that i you require a vote [to No. Don’t believe all the things that you overrule the court] to pass by 65 per- read in the newspapers. cent, then I don’t see the Knesset using Today in Israel, when a law is passed this power very often. It will be a rare in the Knesset, the military authority in occasion. Judea and Samaria has discretion over how to apply it in the settlements. What Freedom House recently downgraded I’ve proposed is that we set up a team Israel’s standing due to what it claims are that would be manned both by the new restrictions on the freedom of the Ministry o Justice and by the Ministry press. And last week, the deputy chief of o¬ Defense to immediately translate new sta of the IDF said that the current laws into military regulations, rather than climate of intolerance, violence, and letting it happen sporadically.

6

JA16.indb 6 5/16/16 7:41 PM A Conversation With Ayelet Shaked

You’ve made it clear in the past that you the Shia and the Sunnis, and there are favor annexation of large parts of the terror organizations all over. Israel really West Bank—Area C, which is something is like a villa in the jungle. And the like 61 percent of the territory. So it’s not situation in Judea and Samaria for the surprising that some of your critics have Palestinians—OK, it’s not perfect, but called this move a ﬁrst step toward it’s OK. They are living their lives; they annexation. Is there anything to that? are selecting their leaders. The situation No. We aren’t talking about annexing could be far worse than it is now. Judea and Samaria. The proposal has Second, I do believe in the historic right been criticized because, like you, no one o the Jewish people to the land o¬ Israel. understands what it’s saying. Politicians on the left want to use it to score poli- So how do you see the relationship tical points. No one has bothered to with the Palestinians evolving? Aren’t understand what I really meant. you worried that as conditions continue to deteriorate, their anger will Speaking of annexation, what timeline continue to grow? do you envisage? I don’t know i what you’re saying is It’s not realistic today. What I’m saying true. Israel-Palestinian security coor- is that the two-state solution will not dination is strong. I think that Israel happen in the near future. The gaps and the inter national community need between the Palestinians and the Israelis to invest in the economy o the Pales- are much too big to bridge. Arafat, Abu tinians. Maybe this will help to weaken Mazen [Mahmoud Abbas], Olmert, Hamas. I think i we are willing to Barak—they all tried to do so many push for prosperity and to invest in a times, and they failed. And the Gaza real economy, and i the inter national withdrawal showed the Israeli public community would not just transfer that even though we withdrew down money but give the Palestinians inde- to the last inch, we only got terror. You pendent energy and stronger industry, know, Einstein dened insanity as when it could help. you do the same thing over and over I also support building a port for again and expect dierent results. Gaza by building an island in the sea. That’s why today the majority o Israelis don’t think it’s realistic to establish Tell me a bit more about the situation of a Palestinian state. So it’s not that I Arab Israelis. Do you feel that there are think we can annex Area C today, but major problems there that need to be I think it is something that we need addressed? to talk about, to put on the table. I think that the government is now doing the right things. You make it sound like your objection to the two-state solution is more practical But a lot of damage was done by the last than ideological. government, which raised the threshold It’s just not realistic. All the countries of votes needed for a party to enter the around us are collapsing, and there is a Knesset. huge battle in the Middle East between I supported leaving the situation as it

July/August 2016 7

JA16.indb 7 5/16/16 7:41 PM Ministering Justice

was and not raising the threshold. That Sunni states. And part o the weapons was unnecessary. But the goal was not to embargo on Iran will be removed in ve hurt the Arabs but rather to strengthen years. And [the Iranians] will now get a the government. lot o money, so they will arm themselves. Another threat is the nonconventional Whatever the intentions were, that rule, arms race. Saudi Arabia and Egypt now and the comments the prime minister see that Iran will have a bomb in ten years. made during the last election about So they also want a bomb. Arabs being bused in droves to polling stations, created a lot of ill feeling among What about the broader international the Arab Israeli population. Are the situation? Do you worry that Israel is moves you’re making now an attempt to becoming more isolated internationally, address that sense of alienation? because of the BDS [Boycott, Divestment, Many politicians said worse things than and Sanctions] movement or because of the prime minister did during the elec- the friction between the leadership here tion. But we are doing what we’re doing and that in Washington? because we think it’s the right thing to do. I believe that the U.S. administration— it doesn’t matter which administration— How do you assess Israel’s security will stand behind Israel in every bad today? Some people argue that Israel is situation. The administration will under- more secure than it’s ever been, because stand that Israel is its ally and the only for the ﬁrst time in its history, war with democracy in the Middle East. an organized Arab army is impossible. And I expect the American adminis- But others argue that the region is more tration to ght the ¶² movement on dangerous than ever, because of the university campuses. fragility of Israel’s new Arab friends, because of the Shiite-Sunni divide, The New York Times reported a few weeks because of Iran, and because of ISIS. ago that tensions between Netanyahu Which view is correct? and President Obama were now delaying Both o them are correct. You are right: the passage of a huge new aid bill the there is no threat that a big Arab army two countries are negotiating. will invade Israel. But on the other hand, I can only say that I hope they will there are many other threats. First o resolve it. all, o course, is Iran and its bomb. The agreement with Iran did two things. First, Do you ever worry that Israel is too they will have a bomb in ten years. They dependent on the United States? will have a bomb. It’s just a matter o a The support o the United States is decision. In ten years, i they decide to very important. But I’m not worried have a bomb, they’ll have one a few months that someday we might need to get later. This is a huge threat to Israel. along without it. I that does happen, The other bad thing about this we will succeed. But I don’t see it agreement is that it caused an arms race happening. I hope it won’t.∂ in the Middle East. The United States wants to give more arms to moderate

8

JA16.indb 8 5/16/16 7:41 PM ethical, intelligent global leaders shaping the face of research

The PhD in Global Leadership and Change

Designed for the working professional, this new program aims to develop leaders who want to create innovative directions in strategy and policy. Graduates go on to create new directions in strategy and policy in NGOs, think tanks, higher education, health care, military leadership, federal and state government, and other organizations.

To get started, get in touch today. 310.568.5600 or 866.503.5467 [email protected] • gsep.pepperdine.edu

SE1509018 PhD Print Ad.indd 1 3/14/16 12:01 PM tional isolation, and the current govern- Anger and Hope ment is steadily reducing civil liberties and freedoms. What’s your version? It’s very clear that here in Israel there A Conversation With are now not only two dierent states o Tzipi Livni mind but also two dierent views about what Israel needs and what Israel is. And zipi Livni has been called the your view o reality depends on which most powerful woman in Israel o these two views o¬ Israel you hold. T since Golda Meir. Born to a prominent right-wing family, Livni Does that mean Israel is now more spent several years working for the polarized than ever before? Mossad, Israel’s foreign intelligence Yes, yes. It started before the last service, before entering politics. In election, but the election crystallized the THE STRUGGLE FOR ISRAEL the decades since, she has held eight idea—quoting Netanyahu—that there’s dierent cabinet posts—including a gap between these two camps. He was minister o justice and minister o right then. And the things that he and foreign aairs—and undergone a his government have done since then have dramatic ideological evolution. First made this gap grow wider. Those that elected to the Knesset as a member are not in the government feel that what o¬ Likud, in 2005 she joined Kadima, is happening is completely against our a new centrist party founded by then understanding o what Israel is, what Prime Minister Ariel Sharon. A staunch its values are, what Judaism is, what supporter o the peace process, Livni democracy is. created her own party, Hatnua, in 2012 and then joined forces with Labor to Is Israeli democracy in decline? form the Zionist Union before the 2015 We are ghting to keep Israel a election. Now a leading member o democracy—not just in terms o its the opposition, Livni recently spoke electoral system but also in terms o its to Foreign Aairs’ managing editor, values. A lot o those on the other side Jonathan Tepperman, in Tel Aviv. see democracy only as a question o who is the majority. This is why they are trying When you speaks to Israelis today, to weaken the role o the Supreme Court. you’re apt to hear one of two competing And this is why Netanyahu wants to narratives. According to the ﬁrst, things control the press. are better than ever: the economy is In a democracy, you need to have a thriving, most of Israel’s enemies are in strong judicial system. You need free- URIEL

disarray, and the current government dom o speech, you need art, and you SINAI reﬂects the will of the people. need a free press. And all these things The other narrative is the complete are under threat right now. We in the / GETTY opposite: the region is more dangerous opposition need to ght for these values.

than ever, Israel faces growing interna- We need to push the idea that democ- IMAGES racy is a matter o values, and not just This interview has been edited and condensed. the rule o the majority.

10

JA16.indb 10 5/16/16 7:41 PM Niss as ipsunt eum, omniet veliquatet eos res ut doler omnihiliquis abora dem eos Livniaut labore in Tel lorem Aviv, sipim. January 2013

JA16.indb 11 5/16/16 7:41 PM Anger and Hope

Do you think you can win this battle? one leader, one party, and not spread The right has controlled Israeli politics their votes all over. But as time passes, for years now. The current government people’s despair is growing. So it depends is the most hard-line in Israel’s history. on us. What I’m trying to do right now Netanyahu seems to have very few is to say, let’s put on the table our basic plausible challengers. Given all of that, vision for the future o the state o plus the country’s changing demo- Israel. Not a specic platform, but a graphics, plus the public’s frustration general view o what needs to be done with the peace process, plus the chaos about peace and security. And let’s in the region, can the left or the center speak about the nature o¬ Israel as a really make a comeback? Jewish democratic state. It’s not more The good thing about having a govern- Jewish and less demo cratic, or more ment like this one is that it makes every- democratic and less Jewish. And o course thing very clear. The more bluntly they we have to share our views about the speak, the easier it becomes to rally the economy and society. support o our own camp. We need to put it all on the table, What we need to do now is to go to not only for voters but also for the our base and say, “Listen, it’s now clear heads o the dierent parties. They also what this government represents. I they need to make a choice. Everybody continue, they will take us to the point needs to take a side. o no return in the Israeli-Palestinian con´ict. They will change the nature Ever since 1996, Netanyahu has said o¬ Israeli democracy.” openly that the way to create a permanent right-wing government in Israel is And is your own camp big enough to win to change the elite—not just by working an election? through politics but by creating new think It’s 50-50—for now. You are right: Israel tanks, changing the media, changing is changing in terms o demographics. culture, all to replace the old secular But when [the government] says that the Ashkenazi elite with a new, more majority rules, they’re wrong, because Sephardic, religious, right-wing one. Ayelet Shaked and Naftali Bennett So said the Ashkenazi leader. represent a minority in Israel. Their ideology o a Greater Israel, and an Israel Well, that is an irony. But is he succeeding? that’s more Jewish than it is democratic— For me, this is not a problem. I know that’s a minority opinion here. What we how [the right] feels, OK? I was there. need to do is to nd and speak to those I was born to parents who were not who are our natural partners. accepted by the establishment in the days when the state o¬ Israel was created. But success also requires leadership And those Jews who came from Arab among the various parties in the center states were also not accepted. They felt and on the left, right? They must be that the establishment patronized prepared to join forces. them. I can understand that feeling. It requires that voters understand that So giving more attention to Sephardim in order to win, they need to work with and everything—it’s more than OK. It’s

12

JA16.indb 12 5/16/16 7:41 PM A Conversation With Tzipi Livni

necessary. But what Likud is doing now serve my ideology and my voters? So is just what was once done to them. the question is, will joining the govern- And it’s even more problematic than ment allow us to implement our vision, that, because they’re trying to delegiti- or serve Netanyahu’s vision? mize those that criticize the government. To answer that, you have to ask, i Netanyahu is using the resentment o we joined the government, would it be those who felt patronized by the old to create a true unity government or elite to shut the mouths o those who just a broader coalition for Netanyahu? criticize him. Those are two dierent things. Unity governments are based on an under- Is there a signiﬁcant dierence between standing among the major parties that what he wants and what his allies, like there are things we can agree on and Bennett and Shaked and Regev, want? implement together. This is not what For Netanyahu, it’s not about ideology. Netanyahu is proposing. He is talking It’s about using the feelings o those who about a broader coalition to help him were patronized in the past to say, “OK, and his natural partners. now we are taking over, and you will So I’m against it, because it would get our support.” betray our voters and what I believe in. For the others you mentioned, it is about ideology. So they and Netanyahu Would you be prepared to leave the have dierent reasons for doing what party if it joined the government? they do, but the outcome is the same. I have my own party. For us, it’s about keeping Israel a Jewish democratic state. The only way to Then would you leave the Zionist Union, do that is by dividing the ancient land o your coalition with Labor? Israel into two dierent states. I we fail I hope that will not happen, but yes. to do so, or i we annex the territories, What’s the use o± being in politics i it we will face a clash between Israel as a means serving someone else’s vision? democracy and Israel as a Jewish state. You asked me before about Netanyahu, A vast majority o¬ Israelis want to whether he thinks like the Jewish Home keep Israel a democracy. I you asked or he thinks like us. I’d answer by quoting them, they might say that they are right that old line: “Tell me who your friends wing. But i the next question was, are, and I’ll tell you who you are.” would you support a two-state solution with security? they would say yes. Let’s return to the peace process. You’ve spoken in the past about the dangers A moment ago, you spoke about the of not doing anything to address the need to convince voters of the stakes situation. But given the disarray on the involved in choosing you instead of the Palestinian side, and the fact that Abu right. Yet as we speak, the leader of your Mazen’s [Mahmoud Abbas’] days are own coalition is in talks with the prime numbered, what can be done? minister about forming a national unity Israel needs to decide which road we government. What do you think of this? want to take; we need to decide on our My responsibility is to ask, how can I destination. I the destination is Greater

July/August 2016 13

JA16.indb 13 5/16/16 7:41 PM Anger and Hope

Israel, it doesn’t matter whether there’s and take steps that would serve their a partner on the other side. interests as well? But i your destination is a secure And we need to work completely Israel that is Jewish and democratic, dierently with the international com- then it can’t be on the entire land. That munity. We have lost their trust by is our » setting. To get there, we’d speaking about two states but then prefer to have an agreement with the acting in ways that serve the vision o Palestinians, because that is the way to a Greater Israel. create a secure border, a demilitarized There are certain interests that Palestinian state, and an end to the nobody in Israel would give up. Security: coníct. Because you can’t end the a Palestinian state should be demilita- coníct without their consent. rized. And the major settlement blocs And i we cannot end the coníct would become part o¬ Israel. tomorrow morning, let’s at least start moving toward our goal. That means Is there anyone to negotiate with on not doing things that take you in the the other side, or does this have to wait opposite direction. Netanyahu says his until a new Palestinian leader replaces destination is two states for two peoples. Abu Mazen? But he’s going in the other direction. I’d prefer to work with them directly. But i they are not willing, let’s start So what do you propose? working also with the international First, we need to win the trust o the community. international community and the Palestinians by saying this is where we Do you see unilateral separation as a last want to go. Not for you, not as a favor option, if necessary? to the United States. But because it’s As long as it moves us toward a two-state in our own interests. solution. We can act with the Pales- Second, we would stop doing things tinians or without the Palestinians. But that serve the dierent vision for the unilateralism would not bring us to the state o¬ Israel. end o the coníct.

Such as? How worried are you about Israel’s Stop expanding settlements, especially growing isolation? those outside the fence that are not going First, I want to make it clear that nothing to be part o¬ Israel. Then let’s change I suggested would be done to appease the atmosphere. Let’s show we’re serious. the international community. Anything Let’s give the Palestinians the right to we do has to be in our own interests. build in Area C. Let’s see whether these But by not acting in our own interests, and other condence-building measures we are aecting our relations with the can create enough trust to relaunch international community. And Israel’s negotiations. security is based on its relationship with And then in the negotiations, we the U.S. It’s not a question whether [the need to nd out what they really want. Americans] like us or love us; it’s about Are they willing to end the con´ict our security. And it’s not just about

14

JA16.indb 14 5/16/16 7:41 PM A Conversation With Tzipi Livni

money or weapons. They also give us understanding. We share the same view legitimacy to act against terror; they o extreme Islamists, o terrorist organi- have their veto on the Security Council. zations, o¬ Iran. Somebody recently said to me that But the glass ceiling that’s for the United States, Israel is becom- constraining relations between Israel ing just another state. That’s not good and the Arab Sunni world is the Israeli- news. Netanyahu and others in the Palestinian con´ict. government say that foreign attitudes So our strategy should be a dual have nothing to do with what we do strategy: On the one hand, we should but are based on who we are: the world act against the extremists, against Hamas. is anti-Semitic, so they will hate us no But on the other, we need to help those matter what we do. that are willing to work with us by What I would say is that there is making all those gestures I mentioned anti-Semitism in the world, but not earlier. I have had discussions with Arab everybody is anti-Semitic. And instead League representatives about this. I asked, o giving the anti-Semites an opportunity “Is this a take-it-or-leave-it deal?” And to further isolate us, let’s isolate them. they said, “It’s negotiable.” I said, “Great. Let’s build a wall between them and Should I negotiate with you?” And they those that are criticizing Israel because said, “No. Negotiate with the Pales- o its policies or because they don’t tinians.” So in the end, it’s all connected. understand us. You sound surprisingly optimistic, Do you worry that Israel is too dependent given what’s happening here and in on the United States? your neighborhood. The United States is the anchor. I also I’m not optimistic, but without hope, believe that we should have better rela- you can’t survive in this swamp called tions with Europe; we need to work politics. with everybody. But the United States I once heard a story about a Western is the anchor. doctor working in Africa who worked 24/7 with victims o terrible atrocities. Looking at all the recent changes in Someone asked him, “Where do you Israel’s region, do you see other oppor- nd the strength to keep doing this night tunities, as well as threats? For example, and day?” “Two words,” he said, “anger relations with the Sunni monarchies and hope.” have never been better. And the Arab I have both.∂ Peace Initiative is still on the table. Is that worth exploring? Yes. The original idea behind Israel was to take the Jewish people out o a ghetto and create a sovereign, independent state. So Israel shouldn’t be a new ghetto, a big ghetto in the Middle East. There are opportunities here. We and the Sunni Arab states share an

July/August 2016 15

JA16.indb 15 5/16/16 7:41 PM public opinion survey published in March The End of the found that 79 percent o Jewish Israelis supported “preferential treatment” for Old Israel Jews—a thinly veiled euphemism for discrimination against non-Jews. Meanwhile, the two-state solution How Netanyahu Has to the con´ict with the Palestinians Transformed the Nation has been taken o the table, and Israel is steadily making its occupation o Aluf Benn East Jerusalem and the West Bank permanent. Human rights groups and srael—at least the largely secular dissidents who dare criticize the and progressive version o¬ Israel occupation and expose its abuses are that once captured the world’s denounced by ocials, and the gov- THE STRUGGLE FOR ISRAEL I imagination—is over. Although that ernment has sought to pass new laws Israel was always in some ways a fan- restricting their activities. Arab-Jewish tasy, the myth was at least grounded in relations within the country have hit a reality. Today that reality has changed, low point, and Israel’s society is break- and the country that has replaced it is ing down into its constituent tribes. profoundly dierent from the one its Netanyahu thrives on such tribalism, founders imagined almost 70 years ago. which serves his lifelong goal o replacing Since the last elections, in March 2015, Israel’s traditional elite with one more a number o slow-moving trends have in tune with his philosophy. The origins accelerated dramatically. Should they o all these changes predate the current continue, they could soon render the prime minister, however. To truly under- country unrecognizable. stand them, one must look much further Already, the transformation has back in Israel’s history: to the country’s been dramatic. Israel’s current leaders— founding, in 1948. headed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who metamorphosed after THE OLD MAN AND THE NEW JEW the election from a risk-averse conservative Modern Israel was created by a group o into a right-wing radical—see democracy secular socialists led by David Ben- as synonymous with unchecked majority Gurion, who would become the state’s rule and have no patience for restraints rst prime minister. “The Old Man,” such as judicial review or the protection as he was known, sought to create a o minorities. In their view, Israel is a homeland for a new type o Jew: a Jewish state and a democratic state—in warrior-pioneer who would plow the that order. Only Jews should enjoy full land with a gun on his back and then rights, while gentiles should be treated read poetry around a bonre when the with suspicion. Extreme as it sounds, battle was won. (This “new Jew” was this belie is now widely held: a Pew mythologized, most memorably, by Paul Newman in the lm Exodus.) Although ALUF BENN is Editor in Chief of Haaretz. a civilian, Ben-Gurion was a martial Follow him on Twitter @alu benn. leader. He oversaw the ´edgling state’s

16

JA16.indb 16 5/16/16 7:41 PM The End of the Old Israel

victory in its War o¬ Independence Israelis. This reliance on the military— against Israel’s Arab neighbors and the along with its battleeld victories in Palestinians, most o whom were then 1948, 1956, and 1967—helped cement exiled. And when the war was over, the centrality o the ² in Israeli society. the Old Man oversaw the creation o To this day, serving in the military’s the Israel Defense Forces (² ), which more prestigious units is the surest way he designed to serve as (among other to get ahead in the country. The army things) the new country’s main tool for has supplied many o the nation’s top turning its polyglot Jewish immigrants leaders, from Yitzhak Rabin and Ezer into Hebrew-speaking citizens. Weizman to Ehud Barak and Ariel Sharon, Ben-Gurion was a leftist but not a and every chie o sta or intelligence liberal. Following independence, he put head instantly becomes an unocial Israel’s remaining Arab residents under candidate for high oce on retirement. martial law (a condition that lasted until The rst major challenge to Ben- 1966) and expropriated much o their Gurion’s idea o¬ Israel arrived on Yom land, which he gave to Jewish communi- Kippur in 1973, when Egypt and Syria ties. His party, Mapai (the forerunner launched a surprise attack that managed o¬ Labor), controlled the economy and to catch the ² unawares. Although Israel the distribution o jobs. Ben-Gurion and ultimately won the war, it suered heavy his cohort were almost all Ashkenazi losses, and the massive intelligence (o eastern European origin), and they failure traumatized the nation. Like discriminated against the Sephardic the United Kingdom after World War I, Jews (known in Israel as the Mizrahim), Israel emerged technically victorious who came from Arab states such as but shorn o its sense o invincibility. Iraq, Morocco, Tunisia, and Yemen. Less than four years later, Ben-Gurion also failed to appreciate the Menachem Begin—the founder o power o religion, which he believed Israel’s right wing—capitalized on this would wither away when confronted unhappiness and on Sephardic grievances with secular modernity. He therefore to hand Labor its rst-ever defeat at allowed the Orthodox to preserve their the polls. Taking power at the head o educational autonomy under the new a new coalition called Likud (Unity), state—thereby ensuring and underwriting Begin forged an alliance with Israel’s the creation o¬ future generations o religious parties, which felt more at religious voters. home with a Sabbath-observing con- For all Ben-Gurion’s ´aws, his servative. To sweeten the deal, his achievements were enormous and should government accelerated the building not be underestimated: he created one o Jewish settlements in the West Bank o the most developed states in the (which appealed to religious Zionists) post colonial world, with a world-class and oered numerous concessions to military, including a nuclear deterrent, the ultra-Orthodox, such as generous and top scientic and technological educational subsidies. institutions. His reliance on the ² as a Begin was a conservative and melting pot also worked well, eectively nationalist. But the decades he’d spent assimilating great numbers o new in the opposition had taught him to

July/August 2016 17

JA16.indb 17 5/16/16 7:41 PM Aluf Benn

respect dissent and debate. As prime that could be managed but would never minister, therefore, he always defended be resolved. The West—which, in his judicial independence, and he refrained view, was anti-Semitic, indierent, or from purging Labor loyalists from the both—couldn’t be counted on to help, top echelons o the civil service and the and so Israel’s leaders were duty bound ² . As a consequence, his revolution, to prevent a second Holocaust through important though it was, was only a a combination o smart diplomacy and partial one. Under Begin’s leadership, military prowess. And they couldn’t Israel’s old left-wing elite lost its cabinet aord to worry about what the rest o seats. But it preserved much o its the world thought o them. Indeed, one in´uence, holding on to top positions o¬ Netanyahu’s main domestic selling in powerful institutions such as the points has always been his willingness media and academia. And the Supreme to stand up to established powers, Court remained stocked with justices whether they take the form o the U.S. who, while ocially nonpartisan, president or the ¿ General Assembly nevertheless represented a liberal (where Netanyahu served as Israel’s worldview o± human and civil rights. representative from 1984 to 1988 and rst caught his nation’s attention). BIBI’S BAPTISM Netanyahu loves lecturing gentiles in Although Likud has governed Israel for his perfect English, and much o the most o the years since then, the left’s Israeli public loves these performances. ongoing control over many other facets He may go overboard at times—as o± life has given rise to a deep sense o when, last October, he suggested that resentment on the right. No one has Adol¬ Hitler had gotten the idea to kill felt that grievance more keenly than Europe’s Jews from Amin al-Husseini, Netanyahu, who long dreamed o¬ nishing the grand mufti o Jerusalem during Begin’s incomplete revolution. “Bibi,” World War II. Historians o all stripes as Netanyahu is known, rst won the scoed at the claim, but many ordinary premiership in 1996, but it would take Israelis were indierent to its inaccuracy. him decades to accomplish his goal. During his rst term, Netanyahu Netanyahu’s initial election came connected his domestic and international shortly after the assassination o¬ Rabin. agendas by blaming the leftism o¬ Israel’s The years prior to Rabin’s death had been old elite for the country’s foreign policy dominated by the Oslo peace process mistakes. To prevent more missteps in between Israel and the Palestine Libera- the future, he borrowed a page from the tion Organization (»À), and that same U.S. conservative playbook and vowed to peace process would become the focus ght the groupthink at Israel’s universities o± his successor’s rst term as well. and on its editorial boards—a way o Netanyahu opposed Oslo from the thinking that, he argued, had led the very beginning. Then as now, he saw country to Oslo. In a 1996 interview Israel as a Jewish community besieged with the Haaretz columnist Ari Shavit, by hostile Arabs and Muslims who wanted Netanyahu complained about his dele- to destroy it. He considered the Arab- gitimization “by the nomenklatura o the Israeli con´ict a perpetual fact o± life old regime,” adding that “the problem

18

JA16.indb 18 5/16/16 7:41 PM The End of the Old Israel

Changing of the guard: Netanyahu at a memorial service for Ben-Gurion, November 2014 is that the intellectual structure o¬ Israeli Both Barak, a decorated former head society is unbalanced.” He pledged to o the ² , and Sharon, who replaced create new, more conservative institutions Netanyahu at the helm o¬ Likud and to rewrite the national narrative. became prime minister himsel in 2001, But Netanyahu’s political inexperi- represented a return to the Ben-Gurion ence worked against him. His tenure was model o¬ farmer turned soldier turned rocked by controversy, from his reckless statesman. Their ascent thus restored the provocations o the Palestinians and o old order—at least temporarily—and made Jordan to a scandal caused by his wife’s Netanyahu seem like a historical ´uke. mistreatment o± household employees. Israel’s old elites closed ranks, and, with A MODERATE MASK the support o the Clinton administra- But Netanyahu saw things dierently, tion, they forced Netanyahu into another and he spent the next decade plotting deal with the Palestinian leader Yasir his return to power. Following Sharon’s Arafat. The 1998 Wye River memoran- reelection in 2003, Netanyahu become

AMIR dum—the last formal agreement that nance minister, although he resigned

COHEN Israel and the Palestinians have signed on the eve o the August 2005 unilateral to this day—triggered early elections in pullout from Gaza. When Sharon created

/ REUTERS May 1999, after several small, hard-right a new centrist party, Kadima (Forward), parties abandoned Netanyahu’s coalition shortly after the withdrawal, Netanyahu in protest. Barak and the Labor Party took over the remnants o¬ Likud. But emerged victorious. he lost the next election, in March 2006,

July/August 2016 19

JA16.indb 19 5/16/16 7:41 PM Aluf Benn

to Ehud Olmert, who had replaced the rebrand who’d been voted out o oce ailing Sharon as head o Kadima. a decade before, however, and fearing Olmert had pledged to follow through pressure from the new U.S. president, on his mentor’s vision by withdrawing Barack Obama, he once again was forced Israel from most o the West Bank. to shelve his long-term plans for elite But in July, his plans were disrupted replacement. Instead o undermining when he let Hezbollah draw him into his enemies, he shifted to the center, a pointless and badly managed war in recruiting several retired Likud liberals Lebanon. His subsequent eort to to vouch for the “new Bibi” and join his negotiate a comprehensive peace deal cabinet, and forging a coalition with with the Palestinians, launched in Labor under Barak, who stayed on as Annapolis, Maryland, in late 2007, defense minister (a job he’d held under led nowhere. Meanwhile, Netanyahu’s Olmert). Together, Netanyahu and credibility and popularity were boosted Barak spent much o the next four years that same year when Hamas, well armed working on an ultimately unrealized with rockets, seized control o Gaza— plan to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities. just as he’d predicted. So when Olmert In June 2009, ten days after Obama’s announced his resignation over corruption Cairo address, Netanyahu sought to charges in the summer o 2008 (he reinforce his new centrist credentials ultimately went to jail earlier this year by endorsing the idea o Palestinian on dierent charges), Netanyahu was statehood in a speech. True to form, ready to pounce. however, the prime minister imposed a His revival was further aided by the condition: the Palestinians would rst sudden appearance in 2007 o what have to recognize Israel as a Jewish would become the most important o state. Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian what Netanyahu called independent president, instantly rejected the idea. sources o thought. Israel Hayom (Israel But the move enhanced Netanyahu’s Today) is a free daily newspaper owned moderate credentials anyway. by the American casino magnate And it helped get Obama o his Sheldon Adelson, and ever since its back—but not before the U.S. president launch, it has provided Netanyahu with convinced Netanyahu to accept a ten- a loud and supportive media megaphone. month freeze on new residential con- By 2010, Israel Hayom had become the struction in the West Bank settlements. country’s most-read weekday newspaper, The freeze was meaningless, however, printing 275,000 copies a day. And its since it didn’t change the facts on the front page has consistently read like ground or facilitate serious peace talks. Bibi’s daily message: lauding his favor- And soon after it expired, Republicans ites, denouncing his rivals, boasting won control o the House o Represen- about Israel’s achievements, and down- tatives in the U.S. midterm election, playing negative news. creating a rewall against any further With Olmert out o the picture, pressure from Washington. Obama Netanyahu returned to oce on soon lost interest in the thankless peace March 31, 2009. Eager to prove that process. Although his rocky relationship he was no longer the scandal-plagued with Netanyahu led to many juicy

20

06_Benn_pp16_27b_Blues2.indd 20 5/20/16 2:58 PM Oxford University Press, 2015 Oxford University Press/Hurst, 2016 Yale University Press, 2016 Oxford University Press/Hurst, 2016

Oxford University Press/Hurst, 2014 Oxford University Press/Hurst, 2014 Cornell University Press, 2015 Oxford University Press/Hurst, 2012

Forthcoming Books from CIRS

Arab Migrant Communities in the GCC Gateways to the World: Port Cities in the Persian Gulf Edited by Zahra Babar Edited by Mehran Kamrava Oxford University Press/Hurst, 2016 Oxford University Press/Hurst, 2016

Transitional Justice in the Middle East Inside the Islamic Republic: Social Change in and North Africa Post-Khomeini Iran Edited by Chandra Sriram Edited by Mahmood Monshipouri Oxford University Press/Hurst, 2016 Oxford University Press/Hurst, 2016

e Center for International and Regional Studies (CIRS) at Georgetown University-Qatar is a premier research institute devoted to the academic study of regional and international issues through dialogue and exchange of ideas, research and scholarship, and engagement with scholars, opinion makers, practitioners, and activists. To contribute to the existing body of knowledge on issues related to the Persian Gulf region and the Middle East, CIRS sponsors empirically-based research initiatives and publishes original books in these areas. cirs.georgetown.edu “ GMAP has deepened my appreciation of the complexities of international relations and has opened the door to new career and academic opportunities.”

– Ko Unoki, GMAP 02 Head of Strategic Alliances (Asia), Bayer Yakuhin Ltd., and author of Mergers, Acquisitions, and Global Empires (2013), International Relations and the Origins of the Paci c War (2016).

GLOBAL MASTER OF ARTS PROGRAM Courses Include: Corporate Finance and For the past 15 years, GMAP has set the Global Financial Markets standard for international leadership in and Foreign Policy Leadership out of the classroom. An intensive, one-year International Business master’s degree program in international and Economic Law affairs, GMAP brings together distinguished International Macroeconomics mid- and senior-level leaders to examine issues International Negotiation at the intersection of business, law, diplomacy, International Politics ﬁnance, development, and geopolitics. The International Trade GMAP hybrid learning format offers the Leadership and Management ability to pursue an executive-level graduate Security Studies degree program without career interruption or Transnational Social Issues relocation. Join us today.

CLASSES START Visit us at ﬂetcher.tufts.edu/GMAP JANUARY AND JULY.

Fletcher_Unoki_FA_full_2016_5_13_v1.indd 1 5/13/16 2:53 PM The End of the Old Israel

newspaper and magazine stories, it had the incumbent’s experience and savvy, little eect on Israel’s internal politics, and after reengaging with his right- since most Israelis also distrusted the wing base and merging with another U.S. president, and still do; a global conservative party led by former Foreign poll released in December 2015 found Minister Avigdor Lieberman, Netanyahu that Obama had a lower favorability won the election. rating in Israel than almost anywhere In the summer o 2014, following else, with only Russians, Palestinians, one last push for peace with Abbas and Pakistanis expressing greater (this time led by U.S. Secretary o State disapproval. John Kerry), war broke out between Any remaining pressure on Netanyahu Israel and Hamas. The discovery o to pursue peace with the Palestinians dozens o tunnels dug by Hamas into evaporated soon after the Arab Spring Egyptian and Israeli territory put erupted. Hosni Mubarak’s regime in another big scare into the Israeli public Egypt collapsed, threatening a cornerstone and prompted a prolonged ground o Israel’s security strategy; Syria sank operation—the bloodiest conict o into a bloody civil war; and a terrifying the Netanyahu era. During 50 days o new nemesis, the Islamic State (also ghting, more than 2,000 Palestinians known as ), appeared on the scene. and 72 Israelis, mostly soldiers, were These events unexpectedly bolstered killed. Israel’s Jewish population over- Israel’s position in several ways: Russia whelmingly supported the war, but the and the United States ultimately joined ghting caused communal tensions in forces to eliminate most o Syria’s chemical the country to explode. Thousands o weapons, and the conservative govern- Arab Israelis—who identied with the ments o Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the United suering in Gaza and were tired o Arab Emirates, and (after the 2013 their own abuse by the police and their counterrevolution) Egypt strengthened increasing marginalization under their ties with Jerusalem (albeit uno¢cially Netanyahu—protested against the war. in most cases). But the regional carnage Hundreds were arrested, and other and turmoil horried Israeli voters, Arabs employed in the public sector who told themselves: i this is what were reportedly threatened with ring the Arabs are capable o doing to one after criticizing the conict on Facebook. another, imagine what they would do to us i we gave them the chance. THE NEW RIGHT Nonetheless, peace and security Around the same time, personal ani- played an uncharacteristically minor mosities within Netanyahu’s coalition role in the next election, in January started to pull it apart. Netanyahu was 2013. Instead, the race was dominated unable to prevent Israel’s parliament, by social issues, including the rapidly the Knesset, from electing Reuven rising costs o¤ housing and food staples Rivlin, a longtime Likud rival, to the in Israel. Such concerns helped usher largely symbolic presidency. And in a new class o freshman politicians, several o the prime minister’s erstwhile who replaced old-timers such as Barak. allies, including Lieberman, endorsed a But none o them was able to overcome bill that would have forced Israel Hayom

July/August 2016 21

06_Benn_pp16_27b_Blues2.indd 21 5/20/16 2:58 PM Aluf Benn

to start charging its readers. (The bill cohesive alliance with several smaller never made it past a preliminary hearing.) center- and far-right parties. In December, the government nally Choosing Herzog would have collapsed, and the Knesset called an created a wider coalition and allowed early election. Netanyahu to show a more moderate Likud went into the 2015 race face to the world. But the prime minister, trailing in the polls. The public was who was sick o acting like a centrist, angry with Netanyahu over a small- picked the latter course instead. That time nancial scandal involving his left him with a very narrow, one-seat wife and over the stalemated result majority in the Knesset. But it also gave o the war with Hamas. The Zionist him his rst undiluted hard-right govern- Union, a new centrist coalition led by ment since his 2009 comeback—one Labor’s Isaac Herzog, seemed poised that would nally allow him to realize to form the next government. But the his long-deferred dream o remaking uncharismatic Labor leader proved no Israel’s establishment. match for his wilier, more experienced Although Netanyahu is both secular adversary. Netanyahu tacked right— and Ashkenazi, his new allies are mostly scoring an unprecedented invitation to Mizrahim—long ostracized from Israel’s address the U.S. Congress (which he centers o power, even though they used to denounce the nuclear deal the represent a large segment o the Jewish Obama administration was negotiating population—and religious Zionists, who with Iran) and stealing votes from smaller are known for their knitted yarmulkes, are conservative parties by promising not to ercely committed to (and often live in) allow a Palestinian state to be established West Bank settlements, and have, in recent on his watch. Then, on election day, he years, come to hold many prominent released a video in which he claimed that positions in the army, the security services, “Arab voters are heading to the polling and the civil service. stations in droves. Left-wing s are These groups are most vocally bringing them in buses.” The statement represented by three members o the wasn’t true, but it e©ectively tapped into current government: Likud’s Miri Regev, Jewish voters’ anxiety and racism and won the minister o culture; Naftali Bennett, Likud the election: Likud emerged with the minister o education and head o 30 seats; the Zionist Union earned 24. Habayit Hayehudi (Jewish Home), a In Israel’s fractious parliamentary religious Zionist party that he built out o system, votes alone don’t determine who the ashes o the old National Religious takes power, however; that gets decided Party; and Ayelet Shaked, Bennett’s during the coalition-building process that longtime sidekick and now the minister inevitably follows each election. In this o justice. Regev is Sephardic—her family case, the electoral math left Netanyahu, came to Israel from Morocco—and a who was 31 seats short o a majority, former brigadier general in the , with two choices: he could form a where she served as chie spokesperson national unity coalition with Herzog during the Gaza pullout. Bennett, the and the ultra-Orthodox, or he could son o American immigrants, served in forge a narrow but ideologically the Israeli special forces and then made

22

06_Benn_pp16_27b_Blues2.indd 22 5/20/16 2:58 PM The End of the Old Israel

a fortune as a high-tech entrepreneur. Chekhov and didn’t like classical music— He is both a model product o the has sought to give greater prominence to “start-up nation” and the epitome o Sephardic culture and to deprive “less than the religious, ercely nationalist, pro- patriotic” artists o government subsidies. settlement leader (although he himsel Bennett’s ministry has rewritten public lives comfortably within the Green Line). school curricula to emphasize the country’s Shaked, meanwhile, was a computer Jewish character; it recently introduced a engineer before joining politics; despite new high school civics textbook that depicts her membership in the Jewish Home, Israel’s military history through a religious she is neither religious nor a settler. Zionist lens and sidelines the role o Both she and Bennett worked directly its Arab minority. In December 2015, for Netanyahu in Likud a decade ago, Bennett even banned Borderlife, a novel when he was the opposition leader, describing a romance between a young but they broke with him over personal Jewish Israeli woman and a Palestinian quarrels in 2008. man, from high school reading lists. Like the prime minister, Regev, Shaked, for her part, has vowed to Bennett, and Shaked are skilled, media- reduce judicial interference in the work savvy communicators. In keeping with o the executive and the Knesset by Israeli tradition, all three have compli- appointing more conservative justices cated, “frenemy” relationships with to the Supreme Court next year, when Netanyahu. Regev climbed the ranks four to ve seats (out o 15) will open o Likud without the prime minister’s up. She has also made good use o her sponsorship, and Netanyahu has never position as head o the cabinet commit- forgiven Bennett and Shaked for their tee on legislation, which decides which betrayals; the two are never invited to bills the executive will support in the join him at his residence or on his Knesset. The committee has recently plane. Yet so far, they have not let their promoted several draft laws designed personal grievances block the pursuit to curb political expression. One, aimed o their shared interests. Netanyahu at non-Zionist Arab legislators, would needs Bennett and Shaked to keep his allow the Knesset to suspend a member coalition aoat, and he needs Regev to indenitely for supporting terrorism, maintain his support among Sephardic rejecting Israel’s status as a Jewish state, Israelis, an important Likud constitu- or inciting racism. Another, which Shaked ency. And there are no real ideological has personally championed, would shame dierences among the four politicians. human rights groups by publicly identi- Netanyahu is thus happy to let the others fying those that get more than hal their lead the charge against the old guard— funding from foreign governments. and to take the heat for it as well. (So far, none o these bills, or even more Since taking o¡ce last year, the restrictive measures put forward by Likud three ministers have readily obliged backbenchers—such as one that would him. Regev—who likes to rail against label left-wing nongovernmental organi- what she calls “the haughty left-wing zations “foreign agents” and another that Ashkenazi elite” and once proudly told would triple the jail sentence for ag an interviewer that she’d never read burning—has been passed.)

July/August 2016 23

06_Benn_pp16_27b_Blues2.indd 23 5/20/16 2:58 PM Aluf Benn

Meanwhile, Netanyahu is doing his Bank and inside Israel. The rst intifada part as well. After last year’s election, (1987–93) was characterized by mass he insisted on holding on to the com- protests and stone throwing; during the munications portfolio himself, giving second intifada (2000–2005), organized him the last word on any media-related Palestinian suicide bombings and large- legislation. This move has given him scale military reprisals by Israel caused unprecedented leverage over Israel’s thousands o casualties. This time, the television and telecommunications so-called loners’ intifada has taken a networks, which have grown leery o more privatized form. Acting on their doing anything to alienate the prime own, young Palestinian men and women minister. have used knives and homemade guns Many o the government’s recent to attack Israeli military and police actions, such as Regev’s promotion o checkpoints or civilians at ash points Sephardic culture, seem designed to such as the settlements and Jerusalem’s address the traditional disenfranchise- Old City. So far, 34 Israelis have died in ment o¨ Israel’s Mizrahim and citizens these assaults. Almost all the perpetrators living in the country’s “periphery” have been arrested or shot on the spot— (that is, far from the central Tel Aviv– to date, about 200 Palestinians have Jerusalem corridor). Other measures been killed—but more have kept coming. are aimed at promoting social mobility. The loners’ intifada has presented Yet virtually all o them have had a clear the current government with its toughest political goal as well: to reduce, i not test so far. Netanyahu has always claimed eliminate, the domestic opposition to to be tough on terror and has portrayed Israel’s occupation o the West Bank, his opponents as softies. Yet he and his which Netanyahu and his allies want top aides have seemed clueless in the to make permanent. By portraying the face o the rising violence. Instead o shrinking peace camp and its supporters stanching the bloodshed, they have as unpatriotic stooges o¨ foreign anti- redoubled their attacks on those they Semites, the government hopes to deem enemies within: human rights delegitimize them and build a consen- groups and Arab Israeli politicians. And sus around its hard-right policies. the center-left parties, worried about The strategy seems to be working. looking unpatriotic, have gone along One example: in a poll conducted last with him. In April, Herzog urged Labor December o¨ Israeli Jews, 53 percent o to “stop giving the impression that we those surveyed supported outlawing are always Arab-lovers.” And Yair Breaking the Silence, a veterans’ group Lapid, the head o the opposition Yesh that aims to expose the harsh realities Atid (There’s a Future) party—another o the occupation by publishing wrench- centrist faction—has called on the army ing testimonials o soldiers who have and the police to ease their rules o served in the West Bank. engagement and “shoot to kill whoever takes out a knife or a screwdriver or DAGGERS DRAWN whatever.” Highlighting the danger o Late last summer, after years o relative such rhetoric, in late March, B’Tselem, quiet, violence erupted in the West a respected human rights group,

24

06_Benn_pp16_27b_Blues2.indd 24 5/20/16 2:58 PM released a video taken in Hebron showing an Israeli soldier executing a Palestinian suspect who had already “Rudel’s historical narrative been shot and was lying, bleeding, on provides much food for thought” the street. —The Foreign Service Journal Instead o remorse, the Hebron shooting unleashed a wave o ugly nationalism among many Israeli Jews. The military high command quickly detained the soldier and declared his action immoral, unlawful, and undisci- plined. Yet in a public opinion poll conducted several days after the inci- dent, 68 percent o respondents supported the shooting, and 57 percent said that the soldier should not face criminal prosecution. Far-right politicians, including Bennett, defended the killer, and Netanyahu, who had initially supported the military brass, quickly closed ranks with his right-wing rivals and Memoirs of an Agent for called the shooter’s parents to express Change in International his support. When Moshe Yaalon, the defense minister, nonetheless insisted Development on a criminal investigation, he was roundly attacked on social media for his Ludwig Rudel stand. After Netanyahu seemed to side with Yaalon’s critics, their quarrel Rudel describes his unique experiences escalated, and in May, Yaalon resigned. with US foreign economic aid programs Announcing his decision, Yaalon (Iran Turkey, India) during some of the remarked, “I fought with all my might most dramatic international events since against manifestations o extremism, World War II. violence, and racism in Israeli society, The Association for Diplomatic Studies which are threatening its sturdiness and and Training (ADST.org) has selected this also trickling into the , hurting it.” memoir for inclusion in its “Memoirs and That Yaalon o all people could be Occassional Papers” series. subjected to such treatment shows just how much Israel has changed in recent years. A Likud leader and former “a vibrant, ﬁ rst hand description chie o sta, Yaalon is no leftist: he of the dynamics within the UN’s supported Oslo but later changed his development agencies” mind when, as the head o military —Ambassador John W. McDonald intelligence, he witnessed Arafat’s Available at Amazon, BN.com, and Google Play duplicity rsthand. Yet Yaalon believes

25

FA 25_rev2.indd 1 5/20/16 3:24 PM 06_Benn_pp16_27b_Blues2.indd 25 5/20/16 2:59 PM Aluf Benn

in the importance o a secular state and Olmert’s foreign minister and his the rule o law. That marked him as one successor as the head o Kadima, o the last o the Ben-Gurion-style old actually beat Netanyahu’s Likud in the guard still in oce. And those creden- 2009 election, winning 28 seats to tials were enough to incite the online Likud’s 27. But she was unable to build mob. It didn’t matter that he had an a large enough coalition to form the impressive military record, opposed the next government, and her subsequent peace process, or supported settlement weakness as opposition leader damaged expansion. In Netanyahu’s Israel, her popular appeal. merely insisting on due process for a Bennett is now trying to position well-documented crime is now enough himsel as a younger and more populist to win you the enmity o the new elite version o his one-time mentor. There’s and its backers. no doubt that Bennett is charismatic and has grown quite popular. But he THE PERMANENT PRIME MINISTER leads a small party with a limited base One o the ways Netanyahu has retained that cannot win an election unless it power for so long—he’s now Israel’s unites with Likud. Nir Barkat, the right- second-longest-serving leader, after wing mayor o Jerusalem, is another Ben-Gurion—has been by tailoring former high-tech entrepreneur who his politics to match public opinion. harbors national aspirations. But he In 2009, he leaned toward the center lacks charisma and remains unknown because he feared Obama and wanted to the public outside Israel’s capital city. to dispel his own reputation for reck- Netanyahu’s strongest current lessness. In recent years, as the Israeli challenger is probably Lapid, the former public has shifted rightward, so has columnist and anchor who established he—which has allowed him to more Yesh Atid as a centrist party in 2012 and openly indulge his true passions. won a spectacular victory in 2013, earning Throughout this period, Netanyahu Yesh Atid the second-highest number has beneted from one other key asset: o seats in the Knesset. Lapid joined the lack o any serious challenger, either Netanyahu’s cabinet after he and Bennett inside or outside Likud. Since returning forced the prime minister to drop the to power in 2009, he has consistently ultra-Orthodox parties. But Netanyahu beaten all other plausible candidates soon outmaneuvered him, pushing for prime minister in public opinion Lapid to the Treasury—a well-established polls—by large margins. Within Likud, graveyard for ambitious politicians, since Netanyahu has managed to sideline a it often involves making unpopular series o aspirants, such as Moshe moves such as raising taxes and cutting Kahlon, Gideon Saar, and Silvan benets. Lapid accomplished little while Shalom. And the opposition has failed in oce, and in 2015, after a tough ght to produce a credible alternative o its with Herzog and his Zionist Union over own. After leaving oce in 2001, Barak the same voters, Yesh Atid lost almost undermined his standing by adopting a hal its seats. Since then, Lapid has lavish lifestyle deemed unseemly for a improved his public standing—popularity Labor leader. Meanwhile, Tzipi Livni, polls now put Yesh Atid second, after

26

06_Benn_pp16_27b_Blues2.indd 26 5/20/16 3:03 PM The End of the Old Israel

Likud—by appearing to be more Supreme Court and more religious religiously observant and by talking Zionists to key gov ernment and tough on terror. Lapid is a moderate academic positions. They will maintain (he supports a Palestinian state and their support for Mizrahi culture and opposes the expansion o remote West West Bank settlements, will impose Bank settlements), is an excellent commu- more restrictions on left-wing organ- n icator, and is an astute reader o public izations, and will work to increase sentiment. But he is hypersensitive— tensions with Israel’s Arabs. he tends to overreact when criticized— Regardless o who wins the next and he lacks security experience, a election, at least some o these changes huge impediment in Israel. seem likely to become permanent. The None o this means that Netanyahu country has already become far less is invulnerable, however. In March, tolerant and open to debate than it used Haaretz published a poll showing that to be. The peace camp has withered, a new, imaginary centrist party led by and very few really challenge the status Gabi Ashkenazi (a popular former o the occupation anymore. Arab-Jewish chie o sta), Kahlon, and Saar would relations are so bad that they would beat Likud in an election held tomor- take outstanding leadership and enormous row. But unless its coalition crumbles, eort to x. And the United States’ the government doesn’t need to call a retrenchment has strengthened the new election until November 2019, and sense among many Israelis that they can the nonexistent party remains a fantasy. go it alone and no longer need to worry In the meantime, Netanyahu continues about pleasing Washington. It’s hard to to maneuver. He has tried to entice the see how a new Israeli prime minister— smaller right-wing parties into forming or a new U.S. president—will be able to a new, broader party with Likud (so far, reverse many o these shifts.∂ none o them has shown much interest). And this past spring, he held negotiations with Herzog over the formation o a unity coalition, only to back o at the last moment and oer his former ally Lieberman the post o defense minister. With Lieberman inside the government, the ruling coalition—more right-wing than ever—would get an expanded parliamentary base and more room to breathe. Until the next election does come around, Netanyahu’s government will keep trying to cement as many changes as possible to Israeli society and the Israeli establishment. The prime minister and his allies will push to appoint more conservatives to the

July/August 2016 27

06_Benn_pp16_27b_Blues2.indd 27 5/20/16 2:59 PM Now, however, it is Israeli civilians, Israel Among not soldiers, who are the primary targets o Israel’s enemies. They are the Nations vulnerable to rockets red by Hamas from Gaza and by Hezbollah from Lebanon, which have killed over 100 How to Make the Most of Israelis since 2004. And in the past Uncertain Times year, new forms o violence have emerged, as Palestinians have targeted Robert M. Danin Israelis in over 150 seemingly uncoordi- nated stabbings and more than 50 n 1996, Ehud Barak, who was then attacks in which drivers have intention- Israel’s foreign minister and would ally rammed pedestrians with their later serve as prime minister, charac- cars. Israel’s citizens feel more vulnerable THE STRUGGLE FOR ISRAEL I terized Israel as “a modern and prosper- in a personal sense, walking their ous villa in the middle o the jungle.” streets, than they have since perhaps Twenty years later, as political turmoil the 1948 War o Independence. Even and violence engul the Middle East, during the second intifada, the Pales- that harsh metaphor captures better tinian revolt that lasted from 2000 than ever the way most Israelis see their until 2005 and claimed the lives o country and its place in the region. more than 1,000 Israeli civilians, Jews Their standard o§ living has never been believed they knew where it was safe to higher. Their country’s economy is go and where it wasn’t. That’s not true robust, and Israel’s entrepreneurial today: in a recent poll conducted by the spirit remains the envy o the world. In Israel Democracy Institute, nearly 70 2015, Israel ranked as the planet’s percent o Israeli Jews surveyed said fth-happiest country on the Organiza- they greatly or moderately feared that tion for Economic Cooperation and they or people close to them would be Development’s Better Life Index, harmed by the wave o violence that topped only by Denmark, Finland, has swept the country since last October. Iceland, and Switzerland. In its rst Meanwhile, chaos appears to loom hal century o existence, Israeli soldiers across almost every border. A bloody fought a war virtually every decade and devastating civil war rages in Syria, against well-armed conventional Arab where the regime o Bashar al-Assad armies. Today, the threat o such a war and the jihadists o the Islamic State has vastly diminished, and the Israeli (also known as ) seem intent on military has never been stronger, outdoing each other in brutality. Neigh- both in absolute terms and relative to boring Jordan has long served as a its neighbors. bu£er o sorts to Israel’s east, but it is now struggling under the burden o ROBERT M. DANIN is Senior Fellow for hosting more than a million Syrian Middle East Studies at the Council on Foreign refugees. And and other jihadist Relations and a Senior Fellow at the Belfer Center at Harvard University’s Kennedy School. organizations roam the virtual no man’s Follow him on Twitter @robertdanin. land o the Sinai Peninsula, which the

28

07_Danin_pp28_36_Blues.indd 28 5/19/16 3:48 PM Israel Among the Nations

somewhat wobbly Egyptian govern- The disconnect between public ment has struggled to secure. attitudes, political rhetoric, and military Confronted with threats at home risk assessments re´ects a kind o sensory and disorder all around, many Israelis overload. Israeli strategic planners can have come to feel that the idealistic agree on a long list o threats and chal- aspirations o earlier eras—all those lenges but not on how to prioritize dreams o peaceful coexistence with them. Like Israel’s political leaders, they the Palestinians and with the greater suer from a deep sense o strategic con- Arab world—were naive at best and fusion. So far, their response has been profoundly misplaced at worst. A sense to hunker down and ride out the o± bitterness, resignation, and hope- turbulence. That is a natural reaction. lessness now prevails. Many Israeli But it’s also a risky one, which could politicians seem to see greater advantage lead Israel to forgo the kind o subtle, in stoking, rather than countering, such clever approaches it has adopted in the sentiments. For example, rather than past when faced with complex threats. point to the benets that peace agreements For all the danger Israel faces today, and negotiated territorial concessions the current turmoil has also created real have produced, Israeli Prime Minister opportunities for Israel to improve its Benjamin Netanyahu emphasizes how strategic position. But these will come other territorial withdrawals—ones that to naught unless the government can were unilateral and unaccompanied by see them clearly—and nd the strength peace agreements—have resulted in to take advantage o them. further attacks against Israel. Yet inside Israel’s defense establish- FRIENDS OLD AND NEW ment, headquartered at the Kirya mili- Although the chaos and violence tary complex in Tel Aviv, the picture is currently tearing apart the Middle East more nuanced. Israel’s security chiefs is deeply unsettling, the changes that share their compatriots’ sense that the have swept the region in recent years Middle East has become chaotic and have actually led to a closer alignment that today’s threats are more diuse and stronger relations between Israel and inchoate than those Israel used to and its only ocial partners in the Arab face. But these ocials also recognize world, Egypt and Jordan. The peace that their country is far from defenseless treaty that Egypt and Israel signed in and that the threat o a conventional 1979 removed Israel’s single largest con´ict has virtually disappeared. As military threat and eectively ended the army’s recently leaked National the era o all-out war between the Arabs Intelligence Estimate for 2016 concluded, and the Israelis. It remains one o the Israel faces no current threat o war most important contributors to Israel’s and only a low probability o war in security, since it ensures that the country the coming year. In fact, the analysts will not be attacked by multiple armies who prepared the document argue on multiple fronts simultaneously, as it that the turmoil sweeping the Middle was in 1948, 1967, and 1973. Despite the East may even have improved Israel’s tumult o the 2010–11 Arab uprisings, strategic position. including an Egyptian revolution that

July/August 2016 29

JA16.indb 29 5/16/16 7:41 PM Robert M. Danin

briey brought the anti-Zionist Muslim the 1950s, when it established warm Brotherhood to power, the peace treaty ties with important non-Arab states has proved durable and critical for both on the outer edges o the Middle East, countries. Even the Islamist Egyptian such as Ethiopia, Iran, and Turkey. president Mohamed Morsi acknowl- Since Israel’s strategic relationship with edged the treaty’s importance and never Turkey broke down in 2010, Israel has sought to challenge or abrogate it. When forged new partnerships with Cyprus the military deposed Morsi in July 2013, and Greece, both bitter foes o the Egyptian-Israeli ties grew stronger than Turkish government. Israel has also ever, with both sides ¦rmly aligning developed closer ties with a number o against Hamas in Gaza, which is sand- African countries, which has allowed it wiched between them. Egyptian and to increase its inuence on the conti- Israeli national security interests have nent and to interdict arms ows to converged to such a degree that in 2014, militants in the Sinai and Gaza. And when Hamas rocket attacks provoked an India—which, as a leader o the Non- intense 50-day Israeli military campaign Aligned Movement, once kept Israel at in Gaza, Egypt clearly sided with Israel arm’s length—has developed extensive and even waved o© U.S. e©orts to bring commercial, military, and diplomatic an early halt to the ¦ghting. ties with the Jewish state in recent years. In the post–Arab Spring period, Relations with Russia have also Israel has also drawn closer to Jordan, improved markedly: indeed, Netanyahu the country with which it shares its and Russian President Vladimir Putin longest border. The open cooperation clearly enjoy a better relationship with facilitated by the peace treaty that the each other than either does with U.S. two countries signed in 1994 has proved President Barack Obama. Washington crucial to Israel’s domestic and regional and Moscow have argued viciously over security interests. Jordan has played an the civil war in Syria; Israel, in contrast, instrumental role in helping defuse appears to have established some clear tensions at the Jerusalem holy site known rules o the road with Russia for opera- to Muslims as Haram al-Sharif, or the tions there. According to press reports, Noble Sanctuary, and to Jews as the Russia even temporarily transferred Temple Mount. Jordan is also helping some military o¡cers to Israel’s military absorb some spillover from the unrest headquarters in Tel Aviv in order to roiling Iraq and Syria. Security coop- improve coordination and prevent acci- eration between Israel and Jordan is dental clashes in the skies above Syria. ourishing, particularly since both share a common interest in securing Jordan’s UNCLEAR AND PRESENT DANGERS border with Syria and in countering Despite such gains, Israel still faces Islamists across the region. many threats and potential dangers, Farther a¦eld, Israel has also made and the country’s leaders can’t seem to some new friends and strengthened ties agree on which are most pressing. with old ones. In a sense, it has devel- President Reuven Rivlin, currently oped a new version o the “periphery one o the country’s most popular and doctrine” that the country pursued in widely respected o¡cials, recently

30

07_Danin_pp28_36_Blues.indd 30 5/19/16 3:43 PM Israel Among the Nations

The Over-Promised Land: at the beach in Tel Aviv, December 2014 suggested that might be the greatest Yet underneath this general consensus, present danger. Yet few in Israel’s defense Israeli leaders don’t agree on the precise establishment—which comprises Israel’s nature o the danger Iran represents. In military, intelligence, and national security recent years, Netanyahu has warned that agencies—agree with that position. They Iran (or at least a nuclear-armed Iran) largely see as an indirect problem, could constitute an “existential threat” to one that represents a bigger threat to Israel. Yet that formulation has been regional stability and the viability o vigorously disputed even by other Israel’s neighbors than it does to the security hawks, such as Barak—despite country’s own security. the fact that Barak reportedly advocated a The more direct and urgent danger, military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities most believe, comes from Iran and its as recently as 2012. To them, a nuclear- two main militant allies: Hamas and armed Iran would represent an intoler- Hezbollah. Indeed, in January, then able threat but not an existential one. Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon declared Netanyahu continues to object to that he would rather face in the the deal Iran struck last year with the

BAZ Golan Heights than see Iranian troops or United States and other major powers

RATNER their proxies occupy that area. Israeli that requires Iran to signicantly curtail leaders see Iran as a rising revisionist its nuclear program in exchange for

/ REUTERS power and have watched nervously as it relie from international sanctions. Yet has built signicant inuence, i not many o Israel’s security professionals quite dominance, in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, have adopted the view that the agreement, and Yemen. although awed, has pushed the Islamic

July/August 2016 31

07_Danin_pp28_36_Blues2.indd 31 5/20/16 2:02 PM Robert M. Danin

Republic further away from acquiring Israel’s lack o complete independence a bomb—even further, perhaps, than was demonstrated most dramatically an Israeli military strike would have. during the stando between Netanyahu They believe that Tehran has signi- and Obama over Iran. Israel had mobi- cantly reduced its stockpile o enriched lized its formidable military and intel- uranium and the number o centrifuges ligence resources to prevent Iran from it operates and that Iran’s ability to developing a nuclear breakout capacity. produce plutonium has been eliminated, Even as the United States and other for the time being. great powers initiated talks with Iran, Still, virtually all Israeli ocials Israel’s air force stepped up its training, view Iran as implacably hostile and and its ocials began planning a preven- expansionist. And Israel has taken it tive attack. But faced with sti opposition upon itsel to act as the most stringent from the Obama administration, Israel’s international monitor o¬ Iran’s compli- government ultimately stood down. ance with the nuclear agreement, vig- Israel had been deterred—not by Tehran ilantly pointing out every infraction. but by Washington. But Israel is struggling to determine Still, that episode has created little what, i anything, to do with the addi- i any new distance between the two tional time—somewhere between ve allies; on the contrary, the Israelis have and 15 years—that the nuclear agree- sought to move even deeper into the ment with Iran has put on the clock. American embrace. Despite the sour personal relations between Netanyahu YOU’LL NEVER WALK ALONE and Obama, their two countries are For many decades, Israel enjoyed a high now negotiating a new ten-year military degree o¬ freedom when considering assistance program that will replace and how to respond to the various threats it expand an expiring agreement that has faced. David Ben-Gurion, the country’s ensured over $3 billion in annual U.S. founding father, pursued a delicate military assistance for the past decade. strategy o “nonidentication,” courting And it is almost certain that whoever support from global powers but avoiding moves into the White House next year the constraints o¬ formal alliances. Today, will seek to improve U.S. relations Israelis still ferociously cling to this idea with Netanyahu’s government. o independence and to the need for the country to be able to “defend itself, A FORMAL ALLIANCE by itself,” as the popular phrase goes. Improving relations with Washington Yet the reality has long since shifted. and perhaps changing the structure o Like other medium-size powers, Israel the U.S.-Israeli relationship represent cannot match every possible threat by one o the best ways for Israel to take itself. Most Israelis recognize that truth, advantage o this uncertain moment— and the state has grown increasingly not by merely seeking a return to the dependent on its only reliable friend, state o aairs before Obama but by the United States, with which it has forging an even stronger bond with the developed a de facto strategic partner- United States. Israelis regularly refer to ship over the last 30 years or so. the Americans as allies. Yet the United

32

JA16.indb 32 5/16/16 7:41 PM celebrate aNYUPRESS DADS&GRADS

“An alarming and “This timely volume should “The Poverty Industry breaks fresh important indictment of Obama’s be a go-to guide for the ground. Every American who ineffectual approach to one of his academics and policymakers who cares about the intersection of signature campaign issues and want to make sense of this private proﬁts and public justice of America’s tarnished system of important topic.” should read this book, and justice as a whole.” wrestle with its arguments.” —Sarah Kreps, author of Drones: —Kirkus Reviews What Everyone Needs to Know —Sarah Stillman, staff writer for The New Yorker $30.00 • Cloth $30.00 • Paper $35.00 • Cloth

“One of the richest “The most relevant book of “Everything you ever wanted to investigations to date of young our era, it will undoubtedly know about the Supreme Court people across the major sites inspire you and those you love to and the Presidency but were of their lives...The Class will be a join the millions of people who afraid to ask.” distinctive contribution to media are transforming our world: by and youth studies.” any media necessary.” —Nina Totenberg, correspondent for NPR —Dorothy Holland, —Andrew Slack, co-author of Identity and Agency creator/co-founder of the $45.00 • Cloth in Cultural Worlds Harry Potter Alliance

$27.00 • Paper $29.95 • Cloth CHAMPION OF GREAT nyupress.org 1916 • IDEAS FOR 100 YEARS • 2016 EARN YOUR MASTER OF ARTS IN DIPLOMACY ONLINE e world is ready for change. Are you ready to help change the world? Norwich University has contributed to the strength and security of our nation for nearly two centuries. Join us and expand your ability to help impact global change by developing an advanced understanding of critical thinking, problem solving, conict management and negotiation techniques. Choose from four concentrations and graduate in as few as 18 months.

Visit Graduate.norwich.edu/fapa BE THE CHANGE.

Norwich is an Equal Opportunity Employer. Israel Among the Nations

States and Israel have no formal, would still allow Israel to maintain its treaty-based alliance. There have been commitment to not ask for American times when Israel seriously contemplated boots on the ground. pushing for such an arrangement. But An alliance would oer signicant in each instance, it decided against doing benets to Israel. First and foremost, so, fearing that the price Washington it would provide an ironclad security would likely demand—territorial conces - guarantee: any attack on Israel would sions to the Arabs—would prove too high. be met and rebued by the United States. Today, Israel’s ambivalence stems During the Iran imbroglio, Obama from dierent factors. First, the Israelis repeatedly pledged that the United fear that an alliance with the United States “will always have Israel’s back.” States would force them to relinquish But he never specically, publicly prom- even more o their military indepen- ised to protect Israel against an Iranian dence, potentially preventing them from attack. A treaty with Washington would conducting certain military actions, ones ensure a lasting commitment o exactly along the lines o the 2007 Israeli air that kind. strike against an incipient Syrian nuclear A formal alliance would also allow facility, which the Israelis undertook the Israelis to stop worrying, as they after extensive consultations with the frequently do, about the contingent United States but without American nature o their partnership with the participation. An alliance would also United States. How much longer, they challenge the idea o¬ Israeli self-reliance, wonder, can Jerusalem safely rely on which is central to the country’s de- Washington to maintain their informal, ning ethos. quasi alliance? Many Israelis worry that But as the dispute over Iran’s nuclear the two countries will drift further apart program showed, when push comes to as each undergoes demographic, political, shove, Israel is already willing to constrain and social changes. This may be happening itsel and accept a high level o depen- already. A poll recently conducted by dence in order to protect its close rela- the Pew Research Center indicated that tionship with the United States. And each U.S. generation is less sympathetic other U.S. allies, such as Turkey, have toward Israel than its predecessor. There initiated military actions when they is no guarantee that the strong pro-Israel believed their national interests were consensus that has long been a bipartisan threatened, regardless o± Washington’s feature o U.S. politics will endure views. A formal U.S.-Israeli alliance, for ever. Now is therefore the time for therefore, would not necessarily have a Israel to lock in the existing benets signicant practical eect on Israeli o its relationship with Washington. freedom o maneuver. Israel’s other major reservation regarding an alliance TAKE THE INITIATIVE stems from a belie that the United Closer to home, a second extremely States backs Israel partly because the important opportunity for Israel to Americans know that the Israelis will consider involves its relationships with never ask U.S. soldiers to ght on a number o Arab states that have histor- Israel’s behalf. But a formal alliance ically wanted nothing to do with it. In

July/August 2016 33

JA16.indb 33 5/16/16 7:41 PM Robert M. Danin

ways unforeseen and largely unintended, to trade territory for peace, and took Obama may have made a greater contri- every opportunity to portray the Arabs bution to improving these relationships as inexorably hostile and belligerent. than he ever thought possible. His eorts But the Arab wall o rejection to pivot the United States away from cracked a decade later, when Egyptian the Middle East while negotiating with President Anwar al-Sadat traveled to Iran highlighted a number o interests Jerusalem and made peace. And the that Israel shares with the Sunni Arab wall arguably crumbled altogether in countries—the very same states Israel 2002, when the Arab League collec- battled ferociously during the rst tively endorsed a proposal put forward 50 years o its existence. by Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah (who In the last decade, the centuries- was king from 2005 until his death last old Sunni-Shiite divide has grown year) that oered Israel the prospect o into a chasm, fueled by—and, in turn, peace, security, and normal relations fueling—the rivalry between the Sunni in exchange for a complete Israeli Arab powers and an Iranian-led Shiite withdrawal to the pre-1967 borders, a bloc. The sectarian split has replaced move the Arab states see as the only the region’s traditional fault line—the way to begin resolving the Israeli- Arab-Israeli coníct—and has begun to Palestinian coníct. reorder the Middle East in surprising The Israelis had ample cause for ways. Israel and the Sunni Arab states skepticism. First, the timing was poor. now more clearly share a chie¬ foe, in One day prior to the Arab League’s Iran, and a sense o concern over U.S. endorsement o the plan, Israel suered retrenchment. a massive terrorist attack in which 30 Israel should leverage this change to Israelis in the coastal city o¬ Netanya shape a better future for itsel among its were killed at a Passover Seder; the neighbors. Some Israelis worry that the bloodshed left the country in no mood Sunni Arab states may be too unstable to negotiate with its enemies. More or unreliable to act as partners. But Israel substantively, the Israelis doubted that should seize on their sense o weakness the Arabs could ever be éxible enough and their openness to explore a formal on their demand for a “right o return” peace initiative. for Palestinian refugees. And the Israelis In September 1967, following the also believed that the Arabs were only Arabs’ devastating defeat in the Six- pretending to reach out to them in order Day War—during which Israel captured to curry favor with Washington so as to all o Jerusalem and the west bank o gain leverage in the run-up to an antici- the Jordan River—the Arab League pated U.S. invasion o¬ Iraq, which the convened in Khartoum, Sudan, and Arab states opposed. issued its now-infamous declaration But the Arab Peace Initiative has o what came to be known as “the three proved to be more than a tactical ploy: no’s”: no peace with Israel, no recogni- for the past 14 years, the Arab League tion o¬ Israel, and no negotiations with has stood by it, even in the face o Israel. Israel responded by casting intense public anger in the Arab and itsel as the reasonable party, willing wider Muslim world over Israel’s

34

JA16.indb 34 5/16/16 7:41 PM Israel Among the Nations

military actions in Lebanon and Gaza. the chaos and instability plaguing the On the “right o return,” the Arabs have region, it’s not even clear how long the called for “a just and agreed solution,” current Sunni Arab governments will suggesting there may be some room for stay in power: Why negotiate with ´exibility. And in 2013, the league even them when they are so weak? Critics made modications to the plan to make also point out that the Palestinians it more attractive to Israel: for example, seem unwilling or unable to conclude the proposal now incorporates the notion a deal—so why give them a veto over o negotiated land swaps between Israel Israel’s regional relations? The answer is and the Palestinians, which shows that that talking with the Arabs might have it is not a take-it-or-leave-it proposal. strategic benets even i it fails to unlock Emissaries from Egypt and Jordan have the stalemate with the Palestinians. Better traveled to Israel on behal o the Arab contacts between Israel and the Sunni League to allay Israeli apprehensions. Arab states, particularly Saudi Arabia, Prince Turki al-Faisal, a former head o could help forge a more united front Saudi intelligence and former ambassador against Iran. Israel could test the Arab to the United States, has met publicly plan’s sincerity and in doing so open up with prominent Israelis and reached out a channel to the broader Arab world by to the Israeli public through interviews expressing a desire to negotiate with with various Israeli media outlets. Saudi Arabia and other Arab League Throughout, however, Turki has made states, while maintaining certain Israeli it clear that there can be no progress in reservations about some o the plan’s broader Arab-Israeli relations without elements. As one senior Israeli ocial addressing the Palestinian issue. recently told me, “Never before have we The Israeli government has yet to oer been oered so much while being asked an ocial response to the plan, and Israel’s for so little in return.” leaders have essentially ignored it. There have been a few exceptions: Dan Meridor, NOTHING VENTURED . . . a former Likud deputy prime minister, I¬ Israel prefers not to deal with the Arab and Yair Lapid, who leads the center-right Peace Initiative, then it should consider party Yesh Atid, have both supported the oering up its own regional peace initia- idea o considering the Arab initiative tive, which Netanyahu has declined to under certain conditions. And a number do. Many Israelis, even within the prime o¬ former chiefs o the Mossad, the minister’s camp, have been frustrated Israeli foreign intelligence service, by their leader’s passivity on this front. including Danny Yatom and Meir Dagan, Indeed, Netanyahu’s tenure has been have decried Israel’s lack o a positive dened not by right-wing extremism, as response. But for the most part, the Arab many o¬ Israel’s detractors claim, but by plan has been met with Israeli silence. risk aversion. In his more than seven After decades o± bemoaning Arab rejec- years in power, Netanyahu has neglected tionism, Israel now nds itsel± branded to articulate a vision—much less oer a the rejectionist party itself—by the Arabs. clear plan—for how Israel could achieve The staunchest Israeli critics o the peace and consolidate its security and Arab Peace Initiative argue that given economic gains. Given the narrow right-

July/August 2016 35

JA16.indb 35 5/16/16 7:41 PM Robert M. Danin

wing base on which his government mobilizing international boycotts o rests, Netanyahu is understandably Israeli goods and scholarship. reluctant to hint at the types o conces- By outlining a plan for peace now, sions he would be prepared to make for precisely when the Middle East is peace. But in adopting a wait-and-see experiencing unrest and turmoil, Israel attitude toward the political changes has an opportunity to explore the that are roiling the Middle East, Israel possibility o new relationships in its is forfeiting a chance to help set the neighborhood and better ones in the rest international agenda in a way that would o the world. Israel ought to apply to its be favorable to it. foreign relations the same innovative, Every previous Israeli prime minister entrepreneurial spirit that has allowed has recognized that when it comes to the country to thrive in the technological statecraft, Israel can play either oense and military realms. Laying out a vision (initiating peace negotiations on its own would not imply a naive denial o± harsh terms) or defense (resisting attempts realities. Instead, Israel would improve by its friends and adversaries alike to its standing by deciding, after many force it to the table on terms Israel years o inaction, to simply try.∂ dislikes). Oense—taking the battle to its adversaries—is far more consonant with the traditional Israeli political ethos. Israel would gain considerable support from its friends and allies by outlining a vision for peace and an approach toward real izing it. And the country will continue to pay a price i it fails to do so. Israelis rightly point out that their con´ict with the Arabs no longer denes the region’s politics. But that condition will not last forever: an almost inevitable future outbreak o violence in Gaza, the West Bank, or Lebanon will surely return the world’s attention to Israel, and the major powers will once again call on it to try to make concessions. What is more, while Israel sits on its hands, the other parties to the con´ict are pushing forward with their own agendas. Israel’s friends, including the United States, are weighing plans to propose new peace eorts before the end o this year. Meanwhile, Palestinian ocials are seeking new ways to confront or isolate Israel, by gaining ever more ocial recognition at the ¿ and by

36

JA16.indb 36 5/16/16 7:41 PM join forces with the Israeli left to push Israel’s Second- for equality on the national stage. The THE STRUGGLE FOR ISRAEL other urges Arabs to withdraw from Class Citizens national politics altogether, creating autonomous cultural, educational, and political institutions instead. At the Arabs in Israel and the moment, Arab political leaders seem Struggle for Equal Rights to favor the former approach. But the best strategy would be for Arabs to As’ad Ghanem synthesize these competing visions into a unied program: one that calls hen the world focuses on the on the Israeli government to integrate Arab-Israeli crisis today, Israel’s Arab citizens into existing Wthe plight o the 4.6 million polit ical structures even as it demands Palestinians living in the Gaza Strip greater autonomy in such areas as edu- and the West Bank gets most o the cational and cultural policy. The goal attention. But another pressing question would be a system that grants Jews and haunts Israeli politics: the status and Arabs equality in shared institutions future o¬ Israel’s own Arab citizens, and protects the rights o± both to shape who number around 1.7 million and their own communities. make up around 21 percent o its population. Over the past few decades, Arabs LEFT OUT AND MOVING UP in Israel have steadily improved their Israel’s Arab citizens are the descendants economic lot and strengthened their o the approximately 150,000 Palestinians civil society, securing a prominent place who stayed in the country following in the country’s politics in the process. But the expulsion o the majority o their since 2009, when Benjamin Netanyahu brethren around the time o¬ Israel’s began his second term as prime minister, establishment in 1948. Over the two they have also seen their rights erode, decades that followed, Israel’s remain- as the government has taken a number ing Arabs suered from high rates o o steps to disenfranchise them. Israeli poverty and low standards o± living, policymakers have long dened their state had few opportunities for education, as both Jewish and democratic, but these and were governed by martial law, which recent actions have shown that the govern- imposed various restrictions on them, ment now emphasizes the former at the from limitations on domestic and inter- expense o the latter. national travel to constraints on setting This onslaught has triggered a debate up new businesses. To prevent the among the leaders o the Arab commu- emergence o independent Arab centers nity in Israel over how to respond. One o power, the Israeli government also camp wants Arab citizens to deepen their closely supervised the activity o Arab integration into mainstream society and municipal and religious institutions and arrested many Arab activists. AS’AD GHANEM is Associate Professor of Since 1966, when martial law was Comparative Politics at the University of Haifa. lifted, the situation o Arab citizens has

July/August 2016 37

JA16.indb 37 5/16/16 7:41 PM As’ad Ghanem

improved greatly. Consider education: And Arabs remain deeply segregated in 1960, only 60 Arab students were from Israel’s Jewish population: 90 enrolled in Israeli universities; today, percent o Arabs live in almost exclusively there are more than 20,000 Arab uni- Arab towns and villages, and with just a versity students in the country, two- few exceptions, Arab and Jewish children thirds o whom are female, and around attend separate schools. (Nevertheless, 10,000 Arab Israelis study abroad. Arabs and Jews remain relatively open Living standards have also risen, as to integration: a 2015 survey by the Israeli has the status o women, and a strong sociologist Sammy Smooha found that middle class has emerged. more than hal o¬ Israel’s Arabs and Jews In 2014, the most recent year for supported the idea o Arabs living in which data are available, 66 o the 112 Jewish-majority neighborhoods.) towns in Israel with more than 5,000 What is more, when it comes to residents had virtually all-Arab popula- government support in such areas as the tions. And thanks to high birthrates allocation o± land for new construction, and a young population—hal o¬ Israel’s nancing for cultural institutions, and Arab citizens are under the age o 20, educational funding, Arabs suer from whereas only 30 percent o Jewish Israelis ongoing discrimination, despite some are—the Arab Israeli population is likely recent progress. Arabs make up around to keep growing fast, with or without more 21 percent o¬ Israel’s population, but support from the government. (Some according to the Mossawa Center, a Israeli ocials have described the grow- nongovernmental organization that ing Arab population as a threat to the advocates for Israel’s Arab citizens, Jewish majority; in fact, since the Jewish Arab communities receive only seven population is also growing, it is likely percent o government funds for public that Arabs will continue to make up transportation and only three percent only around 20 percent o¬ Israel’s popula- o the Israeli Ministry o Culture and tion over the next three decades.) Sport’s budget is allocated for Arab In short, Arabs in Israel are wealthier, cultural institutions; Arab schools are also healthier, and more numerous than ever signicantly underresourced. (Toward before. Yet by most measures o well- the end o 2015, the Israeli government being, they still lag behind their Jewish approved a ve-year economic develop- counterparts. In 2013, the most recent ment program for Israel’s Arab community, year for which data are available, the worth up to $4 billion, that will increase median annual income o¬ Israel’s Arab funding for housing, education, infra- households was around $27,000; for structure, transportation, and women’s Jewish households, it was around $47,000, employment. Although the plan nearly 75 percent higher. The infant represents a step in the right direction, mortality rate is more than twice as high the exact amount o¬ funding that will be among Arabs as it is among Jews. Arabs allocated to each o these areas remains are also underrepresented in Israel’s unclear, as does the process by which bureaucracy and academic institutions, its implementation will be monitored.) making up less than two percent o the And then there is the fact that Israel senior faculty in the country’s universities. denes itsel along ethnonationalist

38

JA16.indb 38 5/16/16 7:41 PM Israel’s Second-Class Citizens

lines that exclude the Arab minority— that equality will be achieved when the from a national anthem that famously state recognizes Arabs as equal Israeli describes the yearning o a Jewish soul citizens and equitably integrates them for a homeland in Zion to a ág that into existing institutions. displays a Star o¬ David. In these ways, For now, the latter approach seems the Israeli government has maintained to be dominant among Arabs in Israel. the dominance o the Jewish majority But even across this divide, there are a and denied Arabs genuine equality. number o areas o consensus. Arabs o Arabs in Israel thus confront a all political tendencies tend to condemn frustrating conúence o¬ factors: on the the government’s current policies as one hand, they enjoy a rising socioeco- segre gationist and discriminatory; many nomic position; on the other, they face a also contend that the government’s government that in many respects has professed commitments to democracy prevented them from achieving true equal- and to the Jewish character o the state ity. How they respond to this frustrating are irreconcilable. Nor are these the only dynamic, and how the Israeli govern- points on which most Arabs agree: around ment reacts, will have an enormous impact 71 percent o Arabs in Israel support on the future o¬ Israeli society, politics, a two-state solution to the Israeli- and security. Palestinian coníct, according to a 2015 survey, and only 18 percent reject the THE INTERNAL DIVIDE coexistence o Arabs and Jews in Israel. Arabs in Israel are not politically mono- The various strains o Arab political lithic, and their goals vary. Their civic thought were brought together in De- organizations, political activists, and public cember 2006, when a group o Arab intellectuals oer competing visions for activists and intellectuals published a both the community’s internal develop- declaration, The Future Vision of the ment and its relationship with the state. Palestinian Arabs in Israel, that sought to Broadly speaking, however, their dene Arabs’ relationship with the state agendas tend to fall into one o two and their hopes for the country’s future. frameworks, each based on a dierent The document, which I co-authored, understanding o Arab Israelis’ split called on the Israeli government to identity. The rst—call it a “discourse o recognize its responsibility for the dierence”—suggests that Arabs’ ethno- expulsion o¬ Palestinians around the cultural identity, rather than their Israeli time o¬ Israeli independence and to citizenship, should be the starting point consider paying reparations to the o their demands for change. By this descendants o the displaced; to grant logic, the Israeli government should Arab citizens greater autonomy in empower Arabs to autonomously govern managing their cultural, religious, and their own communities, by, for example, educational aairs; to enshrine Arabs’ encouraging Arab ocials to reform the rights to full equality; and, perhaps curricula o Arab schools. The second—a most striking, to legally dene Israel “discourse o recognition”—takes Israeli as a homeland for both Arabs and Jews— citizenship, rather than Arab identity, as its a direct challenge to the historically starting point. This framework suggests Jewish character o the state.

July/August 2016 39

JA16.indb 39 5/16/16 7:41 PM As’ad Ghanem

Ratied by the National Committee desert, home to most o¬ Israel’s Bedouins, for the Heads o the Arab Local Author- the government has introduced projects ities in Israel (a body that represents that aim to cement Jewish control o all o¬ Israel’s Arabs), the document was the land, by, for example, demolishing embraced by the Arab public: a poll I unrec ognized Bedouin settlements and conducted in 2008 with the sociologist establishing planned Jewish towns in their Nohad Ali found that, despite their place. More generally, the Netanyahu many dierences, more than 80 percent government has stepped up the ocial o Arab Israelis supported its main rhetoric arming the need to strengthen proposals. In the years since its release, the Jewish character o the state. politicians representing some o¬ Israel’s In March 2014, the Knesset passed a major Arab political parties have repeat- law raising the threshold for representa- edly called on the govern ment to act on tion in the legislature from two percent its demands. But Jewish leaders in the to 3.25 percent o the popular vote. Israeli government, media, and aca- The move threatened to strip the four demia have largely opposed the so-called Arab parties—Balad, Hadash, document. The board o the Israel Ta’al, and the Islamic Movement in Democracy Institute, a think tank, Israel’s southern branch—o their seats in produced a statement in January 2007 the election o 2015. It was a reminder arguing that the Future Vision report, as that the Israeli government’s anti-Arab well as two other documents released policies derive as much from the calcu- by Arab activists in 2006, “den[ied] the lation on the part o the Netanyahu very nature o¬ Israel as a Jewish and government that weakening the political democratic state” and declaring that the position o Arabs might keep left-wing institute “reject[ed] this denial and its parties from regaining power as from implication that there is an inescapable the prejudices o some Israeli ocials. contradiction between the state’s Jewish Largely to prevent their exclusion and democratic nature.” from the Knesset, the Arab parties banded together in January 2015 to create the PARLIAMENTARY PREJUDICE Joint List, a big-tent political party that Arab-Jewish relations got even worse in ran on a single ticket in the election held the years after 2009, when Netanyahu that March. On election day, Netanyahu returned to the premiership. Since then, sought to boost Jewish turnout by making the Israeli government has taken numer- the racially charged claim that Arab voters ous steps to further hold back Arab were “streaming in droves to polling citizens, from rules that limit the rights stations.” The Joint List was remarkably o Arabs to live in certain Jewish villages successful nevertheless. Some 82 percent to a law that restricts the ability o o¬ Israel’s Arab voters cast a ballot in Palestinians in the West Bank to obtain support o it. With 13 seats, it emerged Israeli citizenship i they marry an Arab as the third-largest political party in the citizen o¬ Israel. (Foreign Jews o any Knesset after Netanyahu’s Likud Party nationality, meanwhile, can become and the center-left Zionist Union. Even Israeli citizens without establishing more impressive, the Joint List managed family ties to Israelis.) In the Negev to increase turnout among Arab voters by

40

JA16.indb 40 5/16/16 7:41 PM Israel’s Second-Class Citizens

Speaking up: the Joint List leader Ayman Odeh at a protest in Tel Aviv, October 2015 seven percentage points, from 56.5 percent Jewish threats to Muslim holy sites in in the 2013 election to 63.5 percent in Jerusalem. And in February o this year, 2015. This surge suggests that Arabs in after three Arab parliamentar ians visited Israel have become more condent that the families o¬ Palestinians who were killed their elected representatives can overcome after attacking Israelis, Jewish lawmakers their dierences and act as an eective introduced a so-called suspension bill that united force in the Israeli establishment— would allow a three-fourths majority o the in short, that national politics oer a path Knesset to eject any representative deemed toward change. At least when it comes to have denied the Jewish character o the to parliamentary representation, right- state or incited violence. The Arab popu- wing eorts to impede the progress o lation views the proposed law as a direct the country’s Arabs have not succeeded. attempt to sideline their representatives Rather than accept this show o on the national stage. “Despite the delegit- strength, Netanyahu’s coalition responded imization campaign against us and the

AMIR with further measures meant to weaken raising o the electoral threshold, we

COHEN Arabs’ political position. In November decided to remain part o¬ Israeli politics,” 2015, his government outlawed the Ayman Odeh, an Arab parliamentarian

/ REUTERS northern branch o the Islamic Move ment, who heads the Joint List, said during a an Islamist organization that has rallied a debate on the proposed rule in the substantial portion o the Arab community Knesset in February. “Yet we continue around opposition to what it describes as to be harassed.”

July/August 2016 41

JA16.indb 41 5/16/16 7:41 PM As’ad Ghanem

CITIZENS, UNITED a directly elected Arab political institu- These developments have intensied tion should replace or supplement Arabs’ the search for a new approach among representation in the Knesset, for Arab elites. Two main alternatives have example, has so far left the Arab popula- emerged. The rst, headed by Odeh, tion without an elected body o its own. argues that Arab Israelis should work with In fact, it should be possible to synthesize the Israeli left to unseat the Netanyahu these competing visions into a unied government and replace it with a center- program that pushes for equal repre- left coalition that is willing to resume sentation in existing institutions and the peace talks with the Palestinians greater autonomy when it comes to and consider major steps to advance the educational and cultural policy. No equality and integration o Arab citizens. matter what shape such a platform takes, The second, led by the northern branch however, it should commit Arab activists o the Islamic Movement, as well as to nonviolence, and it should clearly those Knesset members on the Joint List demand that the Israeli government who represent Balad, opposes forming abolish discrimination in the allocation a coalition with the Israeli left. Both o state resources. Finally, since broad camps support the creation o a separate support for Arabs’ demands for change political body to represent Arab citizens, will make them more eective, Arabs but whereas the former believes that should invite Jews in Israel, Jewish organi- such a body should supplement Arab zations outside the country, Arabs and voters’ current representation in the Palestinians in the region, and others Knesset, the latter believes it should in the international community that are replace it. sympathetic to their cause to endorse These competing platforms have the platform. split the Arab public. In the 2015 survey But in many ways, the future o the conducted by the sociologist Smooha, Arabs in Israel hinges on developments 76 percent o Arab Israelis polled over which they have little control. The supported the Joint List’s cooperation rst is how the Netanyahu government with Jewish parties in the Knesset. But and its successors manage Israel’s con´ict 33 percent o Arab respondents voiced with the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip support for a boycott o¬ Knesset elec- and the West Bank: whereas open vio- tions; 19 percent supported the use o any lence between Israel and the Palestinians means, including violence, to secure tends to exacerbate anti-Arab sentiment equal rights; and 54 percent said that a among Israel’s Jewish majority, a solution domestic intifada would be justied i to the con´ict could set the stage for the situation o Arabs does not sub- reconciliation among Arabs and Jews in stantially improve. Israel. The second, o course, is how the The future o the Arabs in Israel Israeli government treats its own Arab depends in part on their ability to over- citizens. Regardless o the state’s choices, come these internal divisions, which however, Arabs in Israel can still shape have hindered the ability o the Arab their own fate—but that will require leadership to achieve progress. Disagree- settling on a unied political program.∂ ment among Arab leaders as to whether

42

JA16.indb 42 5/16/16 7:41 PM From the Peterson Institute for International Economics TPP: An Assessment Essays Evaluating the Trans-Paci c Partnership Cathleen Cimino-Isaacs and Jerey J. Schott, editors

The Trans-Paci c Partnership (TPP) between 12 Paci c Rim countries has gener- ated the most intensive political debate about the role of trade in the United States in a generation. e TPP is one of the broadest and most progressive free trade agreements since the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). e essays in this Policy Analysis provide estimates of the TPP’s bene ts and costs and analyze more than 20 key issues in the agreement, including environmental and labor standards, tari schedules, investment and competition policy, intellectual property, ecommerce, services and nancial services, government procurement, dispute settlement, agriculture, and the related currency issue. rough extensive analysis of the TPP text, PIIE scholars present an indispensable and detailed “reader’s guide” June 2016 // $23.95 that also sheds light on the agreement’s merits and shortcomings.

Available on Kindle and Nook

International Monetary Cooperation Lessons from the Plaza Accord After Thirty Years C. Fred Bergsten and Russell A. Green, editors

In September 1985, emissaries of the world’s ve leading industrial nations—the United States, Britain, France, Germany, and Japan—secretly gathered at the Plaza Hotel in New York City and unveiled an unprecedented eort to correct the largest set of current account and exchange rate imbalances that had ever threatened the world economy. e Plaza Accord is credited with sharply realigning exchange rates, signi cantly reducing current account imbalances, and countering protec- tionist pressures in the United States. But did the Accord provide a foundation for ongoing international nancial stability and policy coordination? Or was it simply a unique one-time coincidence of national interests? In late 2015, leading policymakers and economists held a Plaza Retrospective conference at the Baker Institute for April 2016 // $23.95 Public Policy. is volume presents their views and analyses to provide guidance

Available on Kindle for a time when the world again faces the prospect of currency disequilibria, grow- and Nook ing imbalances, trade policy reactions, and thus uncertainty for both the global economy and world politics.

Tel: 800-522-9139 • Fax: 703-996-1010 bookstore.piie.com

FA 42a_5_PetersonInstitute.indd 1 5/17/16 2:36 PM The World’s Leading MA Program in Security Studies Georgetown University

Dr. Bruce Hoffman, SSP Director, terrorism and insurgency expert. Author of Inside Terrorism and Secure Our World, Anonymous Soldiers. Senior Fellow, U.S. Military Academy’s Advance Your Career Combating Terrorism Center. Commissioner, 9/11 Review As the oldest and most respected master’s degree Commission. program in its ﬁ eld, the Security Studies Program (SSP) is dedicated to preparing a new generation of analysts, SSP offers: policymakers, and scholars fully knowledgeable about the range of international and national security problems • 36 Credit hours and foreign policy issues of the 21st Century. • 7 Concentrations • Flexible full and Terrorism and Counterterrorism; Disruptive Analytics; part-time enrollment Cyberwar; China and its Military; Ethics of War; and, • Fall and spring admission Net Assessment and Strategic Planning are just six of the more than 80 courses offered by SSP. To learn more, visit http://ssp.georgetown.edu SSP teaches students about the latest security challenges or call 202-687-5679. and connects them with the most inﬂ uential practitioners in Washington.

“I believe so strongly in As the world leader in security studies, Georgetown’s SSP, it truly changed my SSP has the curriculum, faculty, and network to life. My SSP education advance your career. allowed me opportunities to travel the world and serve in a leadership position in my career in international security.” —Taylor Hazelton, SSP ’08 on all the other threats that gathered Israel’s Evolving during the years they were preoccupied THE STRUGGLE FOR ISRAEL with Iran’s nukes. In the last ve years, Military states and borders have collapsed throughout the Middle East, militant groups such as the Islamic State (also known as The IDF Adapts to ) have conquered vast territories and New Threats drawn in large numbers o¬ followers, and the schism between Shiites and Sunnis Amos Harel has turned more violent. All this turmoil has fundamentally transformed the dangers oon after Benjamin Netanyahu Israel now faces. The conventional threat began his second term as Israel’s once posed by the Syrian military has Sprime minister in March 2009, almost completely disappeared, only to he ordered the country’s military to be replaced by the appearance o more develop a plan for a unilateral military terrorists on another o¬ Israel’s borders. strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. The At the same time, since October air force and the intelligence branch 2015, the con´ict with the Palestinians went to work immediately; according to has ´ared up, with teenagers from the Ehud Olmert, Netanyahu’s predecessor, West Bank carrying out “lone wol±” the preparations alone would ultimately knife and gun attacks. The Israeli cost the country nearly $3 billion. military’s response to the violence has Israel never carried out the attack, raised thorny questions about its code o course, and in retrospect, Netanyahu o conduct and laid bare the broader and Ehud Barak, then Israel’s defense divisions—between right and left, and minister, may never have seriously between religious and secular Jews— considered launching one. But U.S. that are transforming the Israel Defense President Barack Obama took the threat Forces and the country itself. At the seriously enough to toughen sanctions same time that the ² must con front against Iran in response. By bringing external threats, then, Israel’s internal the Iranian economy to its knees, the problems are falling on its shoulders. sanctions paved the way for the election o¬ President Hassan Rouhani, a relative UNSWORN ENEMIES? moderate who pushed through the inter- Shortly before Gadi Eisenkot became the national agreement that has since put ² ’s chie o sta in February 2015, he Iran’s nuclear program on hold for the met with Dan Meridor, a former member next decade. o¬ Netanyahu’s security cabinet. “You’re Since then, Israel’s security agencies going to command an exceptional army,” have been able to refocus their attention Meridor told me he told Eisenkot. “You only have one problem: there are no AMOS HAREL is Senior Military Correspon- serious enemies left to ght.” Meridor dent for Haaretz and the author of Teda kol em was exaggerating, but he had a point. Ivria: Kavim ledmutu shel Zahal hachadash (Let Every Jewish Mother Know: The New Face of Israel’s traditional foes no longer pose the IDF). the threat they once did.

July/August 2016 43

JA16.indb 43 5/16/16 7:41 PM Amos Harel

For most o the past few decades, the military superiority. When it comes to ² ’s nightmare scenario was a repeat o Israel’s commanders, defense technol- the 1973 Yom Kippur War, when Syrian ogies, air force, and intelligence agencies, tanks stormed the Golan Heights and the country’s capabilities are vastly Syrian commandos captured Mount superior to those o its neighbors. Its Hermon in a surprise attack. Today, victories in most conícts since 1948 after more than ve years o civil war, have made this superiority abundantly Syria has disintegrated, and the risk o clear. Partly as a result, since 1973, Syria a conventional coníct with Israel has has mostly avoided confronting Israel nearly vanished. In April, Israeli soldiers directly, and Egypt and Jordan have on Mount Hermon told me that their signed peace agreements with it. Syrian counterparts on the other side o the border, unable to obtain supplies, DANGEROUS NEIGHBORS had deserted their positions more than Yet considering the remaining threats a year earlier. Most o Syria’s tank units to Israel’s security—militant groups— and artillery batteries have disbanded, the picture grows darker. At the moment, and much o the country’s massive arsenal Hezbollah and are too busy ghting o chemical weapons, which Damascus each other in Syria to think much about began stockpiling in the 1970s to deter Israel. But both groups have declared their Israel, has been dismantled under intention to attack it in the future. Once international supervision. Syria’s civil war nally ends, Hezbollah As for the Arab countries still con- will probably need time to regroup and trolled by the authoritarian old guard, so will hold o on attacking Israel; they have grown ever more interested will likely act on its threats sooner. in cooperating with Israel, albeit quietly. Over the last ten years, Hezbollah Egypt, Jordan, and, to a lesser extent, has amassed an arsenal o± between 100,000 Saudi Arabia and the United Arab and 150,000 rockets and missiles. During Emirates have abandoned their past the 2006 war in Lebanon, the group xation on the Israeli-Palestinian coníct launched some 4,200 o such projectiles and have mostly recognized that the at Israeli towns and cities. Most o them problems they share with Israel are missed, but they still killed 42 Israeli bigger than those that divide them: civilians and provoked a massive military Iran and its proxies, on the one hand, response—a sign that Hezbollah had and and al Qaeda, on the other. As managed to exploit Israel’s extreme did Israeli leaders, Saudi ocials crit- sensitivity to casualties. Since then, icized the Obama administration over the group’s leaders have pledged to up the nuclear deal with Iran; in recent the ante in any future coníct. Should years, Saudi Arabia has also stepped Israel attack again, they say, they will up its intelligence sharing with Israel. turn Lebanese territory into a death trap The disappearance o the conven- for ² forces; Israeli ocials contend tional threats to Israel’s security is not that Hezbollah would hit Israeli towns just the result o recent regional turmoil, and infrastructure with as many as 1,500 however; it is also a product o these rockets per day and launch cross-border governments’ recognition o¬ Israel’s raids on Israeli villages and military

44

JA16.indb 44 5/16/16 7:41 PM Israel’s Evolving Military

On guard: an Israeli soldier in northern Israel, April 2016 installations. Using this combination o Hezbollah has sustained in Syria, its asymmetric tactics, Hezbollah believes commanders will emerge from the that it will force Israel into a stalemate— con´ict there with valuable combat an outcome Hezbollah could then present experience that they could use against as a victory, given the ² ’s enormous the ² . After the Syrian civil war ends, advantages. Hezbollah and its Iranian patrons will At the beginning o this year, Hassan no doubt still view Israel as the region’s Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s secretary-general, major source o evil. But because the claimed that the group plans to supple- group will likely be reeling from that ment this approach with still new tactics. bloody con´ict, it will probably not In the event o an Israeli attack, he attack immediately; rather, it will wait promised, Hezbollah will strike Israeli months or even years for the right nuclear sites and re rockets at chemical moment to strike. storage tanks in Haifa, where much o Should Hezbollah unleash its prom- Israel’s heavy industry is located. (Nasrallah ised barrage o rocket attacks on Israel,

RONEN has also claimed that Hezbollah would the mayhem would bring civilian life invade the Galilee, the Israeli region there to a virtual halt, putting the govern-

ZVULUN closest to the Lebanese border.) Although ment under enormous public pressure Hezbollah may prove too weak to deliver to stop the attacks. To do so, it would

/ REUTERS on such threats in the face o an all-out likely send tens o thousands o ground Israeli invasion, the group clearly poses troops deep into Lebanon and carry out a more serious threat than it did a few aggressive air strikes against Hezbollah’s years ago. Despite the heavy casualties bases there. But since Hezbollah has

July/August 2016 45

JA16.indb 45 5/16/16 7:41 PM Amos Harel

built its bases in densely populated counter the group. In return for the areas, the ² would likely kill many »’s cooperation, the Israeli government Lebanese civilians in the process. The has generally not intervened in the »’s Israeli government would thus nd domestic aairs and has allowed the itsel in a bind, facing intense domestic West Bank to enjoy a modest economic demands for rapid action on the one recovery. At the same time, more and hand and international condemnation more Israeli leaders have abandoned for its tactics on the other. To make talk o a permanent peace and have matters worse, the ² would be unlikely started focusing on how to manage, to achieve a decisive victory: even under rather than resolve, the coníct. a heavy oensive, Hezbollah would still Yet Israel’s strategy has recently run be able to re a large number o rockets into serious problems. During Israel’s at Israel. 2014 military campaign against Hamas, Israel’s current military leaders the ² aggressively bombed Gaza in recognize this dilemma, but they also order to stop the group’s rocket re and contend that against massive rocket re, destroy the tunnels it had dug under there would probably be no alternative the border. Israel even sent in ground to an ² ground maneuver in Lebanon. troops to kill Hamas’ ghters and attack The goal o inícting massive military its military infrastructure near the destruction on Lebanon would be to border with Israel. The death toll— deter Hezbollah from attacking for at 1,483 Palestinian civilians, 722 Pales- least a decade after the end o a poten- tinian ghters, and 72 Israelis, 66 o tial coníct. them soldiers, were killed, according to As for , it represents a signicant the ¿—led to intense Western criticism threat to Israel, but it is not as danger- o¬ Israel’s tactics as unnecessarily brutal. ous as Hezbollah. I has already sent In Gaza, the ² faces the same some o its foreign ghters home to dilemma as in Lebanon: stopping enemy Europe to attack Jewish targets there attacks seems to require Israeli oensives and has repeatedly threatened to attack that kill many civilians. Worse, it appears Israel from both the Egyptian and the that another coníct with Hamas may Syrian border. It will likely try to do be in the ong. Lacking the support so soon, since doing so would give it a from Egypt it once enjoyed and facing massive » boost. To prepare for that public discontent as everyday life in possibility, the ² has deployed more Gaza becomes increasingly miserable, forces to both borders and strengthened the militant group is feeling pressured, its fences there; it has also stepped up which might encourage it to begin intelligence gathering on the group. another round o escalation with Israel. The Palestinian territories, meanwhile, present their own set o problems. ARMY AND NATION Since at least 2007, when Hamas took Not only has Israel’s military had to over Gaza by force the year after it contend with shifting external threats; won elections there, the ² has worked it has also had to grapple with changes closely with the Palestinian Authority, in its own society. Until at least the which still governs the West Bank, to mid-1980s, Israel saw itsel as struggling

46

JA16.indb 46 5/16/16 7:41 PM Israel’s Evolving Military

for survival. Most Israeli men consid- At the same time, the military’s demo- ered combat service a national necessity graphic makeup has started to change. and a personal aspiration, and most Today, only 73 percent o eligible Jewish women were content to serve in the ² Israeli men and 58 percent o eligible in noncombat support roles. For the Jewish Israeli women serve in the ² —a rst few decades after the Holocaust, historic low in a country with a long- most Israelis thought that spending standing policy o mandatory military time in uniform and suering military service for most Jews. Many o the Jewish casualties were a worthwhile price to men who don’t serve are ultra-Orthodox pay for protecting the country. and non-Zionist; under a long-standing Since the 1980s, however, that deal with the government, they are sentiment has diminished somewhat. exempted from service so that they can Many Israelis began to disapprove o continue their religious studies. Jewish the occupation o the Gaza Strip and women, meanwhile, can opt out o the West Bank and to question their service simply by declaring themselves country’s actions in the 1982 war with religious, even i they are Zionists and Lebanon and in the rst intifada, which aren’t ultra-Orthodox. Such exemptions began in 1987. Then, in the early 1990s, frustrate much o the secular population, came the Oslo Accords, which were especially the parents o military-age designed to settle the Israeli-Palestinian Israelis, who feel that the rules place an con´ict once and for all; at the same time, undue burden on those willing to serve. Israel deepened its security, economic, Since 2014, the state has required several and cultural ties to the United States thousand highly religious yeshiva students and some western European countries. to enlist each year, and the students Many Israelis became convinced that have generally complied. But popular their country might nally break the tension over the exemptions seems set pattern o seemingly endless con´ict. to continue. That daydream was shattered by the Another major change that has assassination o± Yitzhak Rabin, Israel’s occurred in recent years is the then prime minister, in 1995, and by increasing reluctance o± liberal secular the second intifada, which lasted from Jews to volunteer to serve as ocers 2000 to 2005. Yet many Israelis retained and in combat units. A growing number their skepticism over the value o their o mostly right-wing religious Zionists country’s military actions. Israel has have stepped in to ll these gaps, coming now become the kind o society that to dominate the ranks o the ² ’s elite the military strategist Edward Luttwak combat groups. Between 1990 and 2010, might call “post-heroic”—one that is the percentage o religious junior ocers less willing to risk the lives o its young in infantry units rose from 2.5 percent people in wars that segments o the to somewhere between 35 percent and population do not consider absolutely 40 percent. This changing balance raises necessary. Some Israelis have also become a number o potential problems. It is less comfortable with enemy civilian conceivable, for example, that units deaths, in part out o concern for their staed by religious, right-wing Israelis country’s international reputation. might not obey an order to dismantle

July/August 2016 47

JA16.indb 47 5/16/16 7:41 PM Amos Harel

Jewish settlements in the West Bank. to defeat unconventional opponents The ² dismantled such settlements could become a bigger problem should during Israel’s withdrawal from the another war with Hezbollah break out, Gaza Strip in 2005, and during that for most Israelis fail to recognize how operation, some 60 Israeli soldiers much the group’s capabilities and refused to take orders from their ambitions have grown in recent years. superiors; a withdrawal from the West Bank, where there are far more settlers UNCONVENTIONAL WISDOM than there were in Gaza before 2005, To deal with all these changes, soon could pose a greater challenge. Highly after Eisenkot was appointed chie o religious male soldiers may also have sta, he introduced a ve-year plan to problems interacting with their female streamline the Israeli military. By 2017, colleagues: some have already refused the ² expects to reduce its 45,000-strong to serve in mixed combat units and have ocer corps by 5,000; release tens o demanded that women soldiers dress in thousands o older, unt, and poorly “modest” uniforms. In recent years, the trained soldiers from its reserves; and extent o gender segregation within ² eliminate many o the army’s aging units and the degree to which religious armored brigades, some o which used soldiers should be permitted to excuse 1960s-era Patton tanks until recently. themselves from cultural activities that The Israeli air force has unveiled plans they consider immoral have been issues to get rid o dozens o its 40-year-old o near-constant debate in Israel; the warplanes, including some o its older ² appears to be leaning toward secular F-15s and F-16s, and purchase at least approaches to such issues and has faced two squadrons (or around 50 planes) o growing criticism from rabbis and some new F-35 ghters from the United States. members o the Knesset for doing so. Like his predecessors, Eisenkot has also Israelis have also grown more critical pledged to invest generously in Israel’s o the ² ’s performance, particularly in cyberwarfare and intelligence units. the con´ict in Lebanon in 2006 and in Unlike his predecessors, however, its 2014 military campaign in Gaza; Eisenkot has acknowledged that the public opinion polls suggest that most ² ’s technological prowess may not Israelis believe their country ended be enough to allow it to triumph against both those con´icts in a draw. Many an unconventional enemy. To ll the taxpayers now have a hard time under- gap, he has refocused the army’s training standing why a military with an annual on countering guerilla-style opponents; budget o around $8 billion has struggled updated the structure o its ground to defeat far smaller and less techno- forces by, for example, establishing a logically advanced opponents such as new commando brigade; and revised Hamas and Hezbollah. What many o its operational plans for defending these critics don’t realize, however, is Israel’s borders to prepare elite units that decisive victories against such for oensive action. Finally, Israel’s air opponents are hard to achieve. Never- force, army, and intelligence units are theless, this gap between the public’s working to improve their ability to expectations and the military’s ability coordinate and share information in

48

JA16.indb 48 5/16/16 7:41 PM the event o a major conict with Hezbollah. These reforms, while important, will not help the address its most immediate challenge, however: the consequences o the surge in violence War by Other Means that broke out in Israel and the Pales- Geoeconomics and tinian territories last October after Statecraft Robert D. Blackwill • Jewish radicals attempted to pray on Jennifer M. Harris the Temple Mount—an area known to “Readable and lucid . . . Muslims as the Noble Sanctuary and [Presidential] candidates that the Israeli government and Muslim who care more about protecting American leaders have reserved for Muslim prayer interests would be wise to since 1967. In the intervening months, heed the advice of War by young Palestinians have carried out a Other Means.” string o lone-wol attacks, ramming —Jordan Schneider, Weekly Standard cars into Israeli pedestrians and soldiers Belknap Press | $29.95 or stabbing them in the streets. By early May, the assailants had killed more than Global Inequality 30 Israelis; the , meanwhile, had A New Approach for the killed more than 175 alleged Palestinian Age of Globalization attackers and arrested around 2,500 Branko Milanovic more Palestinians. “Branko Milanovic has So far, Israel has avoided the written an outstanding book. Global Inequality is collective punishments, such as denying informative, wide-ranging, Palestinians permits to work in Israel, scholarly, imaginative and commendably brief. As you that it employed during the rst and would expect from one of second intifadas. The has also the world’s leading experts insisted on maintaining its cooperation on this topic.” with the ’s security agencies. In the —Martin Wolf, Financial Times months after October, Israel’s security Belknap Press | $29.95 agencies began to foil an increasing number o attacks, mostly by monitoring The Global social media. The has unveiled a Transformation campaign to dissuade high school of Time students from joining the conict, and 1870–1950 in February, it started preemptively Vanessa Ogle arresting potential assailants. “Ogle’s formidable work contributes to a new history of None o this has diminished the political economy which takes seriously the ideas, values, and acts of violence behind the emergence of global anxiety inside Israel, however, and the capitalism.” attacks have provoked hysterical and —Ian P. Beacock, The Atlantic sometimes racist responses from both $39.95 civilians and ocials. Even Eisenkot has become a target o this vitriol: in HARVARD UNIVERSITY PRESS www.hup.harvard.edu

49

FA 49_rev2.indd 1 5/20/16 3:08 PM JA16.indb 49 5/16/16 7:41 PM Amos Harel

January, for example, when he insisted (Yaalon resigned on May 20, saying that the army adhere to its rules o that he strongly disagreed with Netan- engagement in order to avoid unneces- yahu’s government “on moral and sary deaths, he was severely criticized, professional issues.”) not just by right-wing backbenchers in All o this has left Eisenkot with the Knesset but also by some ministers two main challenges: defending the in the governing Likud Party. army and its code o ethics from both The debate turned even uglier in late left- and right-wing critics and pre- March after a soldier was videotaped paring it for war on several dierent shooting a Palestinian assailant in the and uncertain fronts. So far, he has head as he lay wounded on the ground. managed the tasks well. But he increas- The Israeli army charged the soldier ingly nds himsel at odds with many with manslaughter. Right-wing legis- Israeli citizens, with conservative poli- lators and nationalist soccer hooligans ticians, and, perhaps most important, held a heated demonstration outside with some o his own soldiers, who the military court near the southern prefer to shoot Palestinian attackers city o Ashkelon. Posters portraying rst and ask questions later. At the Eisenkot and then Defense Minister very time the should be retooling Moshe Yaalon as traitors appeared around itsel to confront a new set o external the Kirya, the ’s Tel Aviv headquar- threats, it has found itsel thrust into a ters. But Eisenkot did not crack under new and uncomfortable role as one o the pressure: the soldier’s trial began in the last gatekeepers o Israel’s early May, and Eisenkot has insisted that democracy.∂ he alone is responsible for dening the military’s rules o engagement. Eisenkot’s deputy, Major General Yair Golan, got into even worse trouble a few days later in May, on Israel’s Holocaust Remembrance Day, when he gave a speech warning o increasingly racist and violent trends in Israeli society. By claiming that he recognized some similarities between developments in contemporary Israel and “the revolting processes that occurred in Europe in general, and particularly in Germany . . . 70, 80, and 90 years ago”—an allusion to the Nazi period—Golan caused a massive scandal. Right-wing ministers demanded his resignation, and Netanyahu publicly reprimanded him for “cheapen[ing] the Holocaust.” Golan will remain in o«ce, but his chances o becoming Eisenkot’s successor in 2019 now seem diminished.

50

09_Harel_pp43_50b_Blues2.indd 50 5/20/16 2:26 PM has changed—decidedly for the better. By Israel and the every measure, Israel is more globalized, THE STRUGGLE FOR ISRAEL prosperous, and democratic than at any Post-American time in its history. As nearby parts o the Middle East slip under waves o Middle East ruthless sectarian strife, Israel’s minorities rest secure. As Europe staggers under the weight o unwanted Muslim Why the Status Quo Is migrants, Israel welcomes thousands Sustainable o Jewish immigrants from Europe. As other Mediterranean countries struggle Martin Kramer with debt and unemployment, Israel boasts a growing economy, supported by waves o¬ foreign investment. as the feud between U.S. Politically, Netanyahu’s tenure has President Barack Obama been Israel’s least tumultuous. Netan- Wand Israeli Prime Minister yahu has served longer than any other Benjamin Netanyahu, rst over settle- Israeli prime minister except David ments and then over Iran, a watershed? Ben-Gurion, yet he has led Israel in only Netanyahu, it is claimed, turned U.S. one ground war: the limited Operation support o¬ Israel into a partisan issue. Protective Edge in Gaza in 2014. “I’d Liberals, including many American feel better i our partner was not the Jews, are said to be fed up with Israel’s trigger-happy Netanyahu,” wrote the New “occupation,” which will mark its 50th York Times columnist Maureen Dowd anniversary next year. The weakening four years ago. But Netanyahu hasn’t o¬ Israel’s democratic ethos is suppos- pulled triggers, even against Iran. The edly undercutting the “shared values” Israeli electorate keeps returning him to argument for the relationship. Some say oce precisely because he is risk averse: Israel’s dogged adherence to an “unsus- no needless wars, but no ambitious peace tainable” status quo in the West Bank plans either. Although this may produce has made it a liability in a region in the “overwhelming frustration” in Obama’s throes o change. Israel, it is claimed, is White House, in Vice President Joe Biden’s slipping into pariah status, imposed by the scolding phrase, it suits the majority o global movement for Boycott, Divestment, Israeli Jews just ne. and Sanctions (¶²). Netanyahu’s endurance fuels the Biblical-style lamentations over Israel’s frustration o¬ Israel’s diminished left, nal corruption have been a staple o the too: thwarted at the ballot box, they state’s critics and die-hard anti-Zionists comfort themselves with a false notion for 70 years. Never have they been so that Israel’s democracy is endangered. detached from reality. O course, Israel The right made similar claims 20 years ago, culminating in the assassination o MARTIN KRAMER is President of Shalem Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin. Anti- College, in Jerusalem, and the author of the forthcoming book The War on Error: Israel, democratic forces exist in all democracies, Islam, and the Middle East. but in Israel, they are either outside the

July/August 2016 51

JA16.indb 51 5/16/16 7:41 PM Martin Kramer

system or conned in smaller parties, the West Bank; Israeli-Palestinian Jewish and Arab alike. There is no security cooperation lls in most o the mechanism by which an outlier could gaps. The Palestinian Authority, in the capture one o the main political parties words o one wag, has become a “mini- in a populist upsurge, as now seems Jordan,” buttressed by a combination likely in the United States. Under com- o¬ foreign aid, economic growth, and parable pressures o terrorism and war, the usual corruption. By the standards even old democracies have wavered, o today’s Middle East, the Israeli- but Israel’s record o¬ fair, free elections Palestinian coníct remains stable. It testies to the depth o its homegrown is prosecuted mostly at a distance, democratic ethos, reinforced by a vig- through maneuvering in international orous press and a vigilant judiciary. bodies and campaigns for and against Israel is also more secure than ever. ¶². These are high-decibel, low-impact In 1948, only 700,000 Jews faced the confrontations. Yossi Vardi, Israel’s daunting challenge o winning indepen- most famous high-tech entrepreneur, dence against the arrayed armies o the summarizes the mainstream Israeli Arab world. Ben-Gurion’s top com- view: “I’m not at all concerned about manders warned him that Israel had the economic eect o ¶². We have only a 50-50 chance o victory. Today, been subject to boycotts before.” And there are over six million Israeli Jews, they were much worse. and Israel is among the world’s most Every political party in Israel has its formidable military powers. It has a own preferred solution to the coníct, qualitative edge over any imaginable but no solution oers an unequivocal combination o enemies, and the advantage over the status quo. “The ongoing digitalization o warfare has occupation as it is now can last forever, played precisely to Israel’s strengths. and it is better than any alternative”— The Arab states have dropped out o this opinion, issued in April by Benny the competition, leaving the eld to Zier, the literary editor o the liberal, die-hard Islamists on Israel’s borders. left-wing Haaretz, summarizes the present They champion “resistance,” but their Israeli consensus. It is debatable whether primitive rocketry and tunnel digging the two-state option has expired. But the are ineective. The only credible threat reality on the ground doesn’t resemble to a viable Israel would be a nuclear one state either. Hal a century after the Iran. No one doubts that i¬ Iran ever 1967 war, only ve percent o¬ Israelis live breaks out, Israel could deploy its own in West Bank settlements, and hal o nuclear deterrent, independent o any them live in the ve blocs that would be constraining alliance. retained by Israel in any two-state scenario. And what o the Palestinians? There In the meantime, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi is no near solution to this enduring Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates coníct, but Israel has been adept at are all shaking hands with Israel, some- containing its eects. There is occupied times before the cameras. Israel and territory, but there is also unoccupied Russia are assiduously courting each other; territory. Israel maintains an over-the- still farther aeld, Israel’s relations with horizon security footprint in most o China and India are booming. The

52

JA16.indb 52 5/16/16 7:41 PM Israel and the Post-American Middle East

Mind the gap: Hillary Clinton and Benjamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem, November 2012 genuine pariah o the Middle East is driving its adversaries to resignation— the Syrian regime, which never deigned and compromise. This is more an art to make peace with Israel. This last than a science, but such resolve has so-called steadfast Arab state is consumed served Israel well over time. from within by a great bloodbath; its nuclear project and massive stocks o THE SUPERPOWER RETREATS chemical weapons are a distant memory. Still, there is a looming cloud on Israel’s Israel faces all manner o potential horizon. It isn’t Iran’s delayed nukes, threats and challenges, but never has it academe’s threats o± boycott, or Pales- been more thoroughly prepared to meet tinian maneuvers at the ¿. It is a huge them. The notion popular among some power vacuum. The United States, after Israeli pundits that their compatriots a wildly erratic spree o misadventures, live in a perpetual state o paralyzing is backing out o the region. It is cutting fear misleads both Israel’s allies and its its exposure to a Middle East that has adversaries. Israel’s leaders are cautious consistently deed American expecta- but condent, not easily panicked, and tions and denied successive American

BAZ practiced in the very long game that presidents the “mission accomplished”

RATNER everyone plays in the Middle East. moments they crave. The disengage- Nothing leaves them so unmoved as ment began before Obama entered the

/ REUTERS the vacuous mantra that the status quo White House, but he has accelerated it, is unsustainable. Israel’s survival has coming to see the Middle East as a region always depended on its willingness to to be avoided because it “could not be sustain the status quo that it has created, xed—not on his watch, and not for a

July/August 2016 53

JA16.indb 53 5/16/16 7:41 PM Martin Kramer

generation to come.” (This was the Middle East. Israel wants a new memo- bottom-line impression o the journalist randum o understanding with the Jerey Goldberg, to whom Obama granted United States, the bigger the better, as his legacy interview on foreign policy.) compensation for the Iran nuclear deal. I± history is precedent, this is more It is in Israel’s interest to emphasize than a pivot. Over the last century, the the importance o the U.S.-Israeli Turks, the British, the French, and the rela tionship as the bedrock o regional Russians each had their moment in the stability going forward. Middle East, but prolonging it proved But how far forward is another costly as their power ebbed. They gave question. Even as Israel seeks to deepen up the pursuit o dominance and settled the United States’ commitment in the for inúence. A decade ago, in the pages short term, it knows that the unshakable o this magazine, Richard Haass, the bond won’t last in perpetuity. This is a president o the Council on Foreign lesson o± history. The leaders o the Relations, predicted that the United Zionist movement always sought to ally States had reached just this point: “The their project with the dominant power American era in the Middle East,” he o the day, but they had lived through announced, “. . . has ended.” He went too much European history to think on: “The United States will continue to that great power is ever abiding. In the enjoy more inúence in the region than twentieth century, they witnessed the any other outside power, but its inú- collapse o old empires and the rise o ence will be reduced from what it once new ones, each staking its claim to the was.” That was a debatable proposition Middle East in turn, each making in 2006; now in 2016, Obama has made promises and then rescinding them. it indisputable. When the United States’ turn came, There are several ways to make a the emerging superpower didn’t rush retreat seem other than it is. The Obama to embrace the Jews. They were alone administration’s tack has been to create during the 1930s, when the gates o the illusion o a stable equilibrium, by the United States were closed to them. cutting the United States’ commitments They were alone during the Holocaust, to its allies and mollifying its adversaries. when the United States awoke too late. And so, suddenly, none o the United They were alone in 1948, when the United States’ traditional friends is good enough States placed Israel under an arms to justify its full condence. The great embargo, and in 1967, when a U.S. power must conceal its own weariness, president explicitly told the Israelis that so it pretends to be frustrated by the i they went to war, they would be alone. inconstancy o “free riders.” The result- After 1967, Israel nestled in the Pax ing complaints about Israel (as well as Americana. The subsequent decades Egypt and Saudi Arabia) serve just such o the “special relationship” have so a narrative. deepened Israel’s dependence on the Israel’s leaders aren’t shy about warning United States in the military realm that against the consequences o this posture, many Israelis can no longer remember but they are careful not to think out loud how Israel managed to survive without about Israeli options in a post-American all that U.S. hardware. Israel’s own armies

54

JA16.indb 54 5/16/16 7:41 PM o supporters in the United States, especially in the Jewish community, reinforce this mindset as they assure themselves that were it not for their lobbying eorts in Washington, Israel would be in mortal peril. But the Obama administration has given Israelis a preview o just how the unshakable bond is likely to be shaken. Franklin Williams This prospect might seem alarming to Internship Israel’s supporters, but the inevitable The Council on Foreign Relations is seeking turn o the wheel was precisely the talented individuals for the Franklin Williams reason Zionist Jews sought sovereign Internship. independence in the rst place. An The Franklin Williams Internship, named after independent Israel is a guarantee against the late Ambassador Franklin H. Williams, was established for undergraduate and graduate the day when the Jews will again nd students who have a serious interest in themselves alone, and it is an operating international relations. premise o¬ Israeli strategic thought Ambassador Williams had a long career of that such a day will come. public service, including serving as the American Ambassador to Ghana, as well as the ISRAEL ALONE Chairman of the Board of Trustees of Lincoln University, one of the country’s historically This conviction, far from paralyzing black colleges. He was also a Director of the Israel, propels it to expand its options, Council on Foreign Relations, where he made diversify its relationships, and build its special efforts to encourage the nomination of independent capabilities. The Middle black Americans to membership. East o the next 50 years will be dier- The Council will select one individual each ent from that o the last 100. There term (fall, spring, and summer) to work in the Council’s New York City headquarters. will be no hegemony-seeking outside The intern will work closely with a Program powers. The costs o pursuing full- Director or Fellow in either the Studies or spectrum dominance are too high; the the Meetings Program and will be involved rewards are too few. Outside powers with program coordination, substantive and business writing, research, and budget will pursue specic goals, related to oil management. The selected intern will be or terrorism. But large swaths o the required to make a commitment of at least 12 Middle East will be left to their fate, hours per week, and will be paid $10 an hour. to dissolve and re-form in unpredictable To apply for this internship, please send a ways. Israel may be asked by weaker résumé and cover letter including the se- neighbors to extend its security net to mester, days, and times available to work to the Internship Coordinator in the Human include them, as it has done for decades Resources Office at the address listed below. for Jordan. Arab concern about Iran is The Council is an equal opportunity employer.

already doing more to normalize Israel Council on Foreign Relations in the region than the ever-elusive and Human Resources Office ever-inconclusive peace process. Israel, 58 East 68th Street, New York, NY 10065 tel: 212.434 . 9400 fax: 212.434 . 9893 once the fulcrum o regional con´ict, [email protected] http://www.cfr.org will loom like a pillar o regional

55

JA16.indb 55 5/16/16 7:41 PM Martin Kramer

stability—not only for its own people don’t sway Israel’s government, which but also for its neighbors, threatened knows better, but they do fuel Arab and by a rising tide o political fragmentation, Iranian rejection o¬ Israel among those economic contraction, radical Islam, and who believe that the United States no sectarian hatred. longer has Israel’s back. For Israel’s So Israel is planning to outlast the enemies, drawing the conclusion that United States in the Middle East. Israel is thus weak would be a tragic Israelis roll their eyes when the United mistake: Israel is well positioned to States insinuates that it best understands sustain the status quo all by itself. Its Israel’s genuine long-term interests, long-term strategy is predicated on it. which Israel is supposedly too traumatized A new U.S. administration will oer or confused to discern. Although Israel an opportunity to revisit U.S. policy, or at has made plenty o tactical mistakes, it least U.S. rhetoric. One o the candidates, is hard to argue that its strategy has Hillary Clinton, made a statement as been anything but a success. And given secretary o state in Jerusalem in 2010 that the wobbly record o the United States came closer to reality and practicality. in achieving or even dening its interests “The status quo is unsustainable,” she in the Middle East, it is hard to say the said, echoing the usual line. But she added same about U.S. strategy. The Obama this: “Now, that doesn’t mean that it can’t administration has placed its bet on the be sustained for a year or a decade, or two Iran deal, but even the deal’s most ardent or three, but fundamentally, the status advocates no longer claim to see the quo is unsustainable.” Translation: the “arc o± history” in the Middle East. In status quo may not be optimal, but it is the face o the collapse o the Arab Spring, sustainable, for as long as it takes. the Syrian dead, the millions o refugees, As the United States steps back from and the rise o the Islamic State, or , the Middle East, this is the message who can say in which direction the arc Washington should send i it wants to points? Or where the Iran deal will lead? assist Israel and other U.S. allies in One other common American lling the vacuum it will leave behind.∂ mantra deserves to be shelved. “Pre- cisely because o our friendship,” said Obama ve years ago, “it is important that we tell the truth: the status quo is unsustainable, and Israel too must act boldly to advance a lasting peace.” It is time for the United States to abandon this mantra, or at least modify it. Only i¬ Israel’s adversaries conclude that Israel can sustain the status quo indenitely— Israel’s military supremacy, its economic advantage, and, yes, its occupation—is there any hope that they will reconcile themselves to Israel’s existence as a Jewish state. Statements like Obama’s

56

JA16.indb 56 5/16/16 7:41 PM

Web Analytics