Understanding Risk Europe Innovate for Resilience Proceedings from the 2019 UR Europe Conference Proceedings from the 2019 UR Europe Confernce Photo: © Ivano DeSantis. Sommati of Amatrice,Italy: Damage causedby the2016earthquake thathitcentral Italy. All rightsreserved. Washington, DC20433USA 1818 HStreet,NW ©2020 byTheInternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment/The WorldBank Designed byMikiFernández([email protected]),Washington,DC Edited byAnneHimmelfarb Washington, DC,March2020 concerning thelegalstatusofanyterritoryorendorsementacceptancesuchboundaries. and otherinformationshownonanymapinthisworkdonotimplyjudgmentthepartofWorldBank The WorldBankdoesnotguarantee the accuracyofdatainthiswork.Theboundaries,colors,denominations, therein. GFDRR andtheWorldBankGrouparenotresponsibleforanyusethatmaybemadeofinformationcontained (GFDRR) or of theWorld Bank Group,and the sole responsibility for this publication lieswith the authors. The findings ofthispublicationdonotreflecttheviewsGlobalFacilityforDisasterReductionandRecovery Europe Conference.ThesesubmissionswerecompiledandeditedbytheWorldBankGroup.Thecontent This publicationismadeupofaseriessubmissionsfromtechnicalsessionleadstheUnderstandingRisk

“We are vulnerable, the fact that we understand risk makes us less vulnerable, but at the same time we are at the edge of another event.”

Joaquin Toro, Ignites Host. Organized by Contents

Abbreviations 4 Acknowledgments 5 Foreword 6 Opening remarks 7 Welcome remarks 11 Ignites 12

1. Assessing and addressing the fiscal and economic impacts of natural disasters: 14 Recent experiences and innovations in country financial resilience

2. Managing earthquake risk at a national scale: From strategic planning 17 to on-the-ground actions

3. Leveraging regional systems to improve national forecasting 21 and early warning of weather-related hazards

4. Community engagement, raising awareness, and driving action 26

5. Challenges and opportunities for assessing flood risks 30

6. Private sector and business continuity: Preparing for and managing disasters 34

7. Determining disaster and climate impacts on the poorest and most 40 vulnerable, and optimizing solutions for resilience

8. Scaling up safer and higher-quality learning environments 46

9. Building urban resilience: Integrating climate and disaster risks into 50 urban development

10. Critical infrastructure risks and why investing in resilience 55 makes financial sense

11. Innovations in geospatial data collection and analytics: Shaping 59 the future of understanding the built environment

12. Assessing and managing risk to cultural heritage: Preserving the past 62 for the future

13. Assessing and managing the threat of emerging risks 66 (cyber threats, pandemics, extreme heat)

14. An urgent matter in our homes: Tackling challenges of earthquake 71 risk reduction in the housing sector Abbreviations

BCP business continuity plan CAT bond catastrophe bond DCP Department of Civil Protection (Italy) DMCSEE Drought Management Centre for Southeastern Europe DRM disaster risk management DSM digital surface model DTM digital terrain model ECMWF European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ECP Empowered Communities’ Program EFAS European Flood Awareness System EFFIS European Forest Fire Information System EU European Union EUMETNET European National Meteorological Services Network EUMETSAT European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites FD Floods Directive FRMP flood risk management plan GDP gross domestic product GFDRR Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery GIS geographic information system ha hectare(s) HR high-resolution ICT information and communications technology ISIMIP Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project ITOIZ Istanbul Tuzla Organized Industrial Zone JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency NEN Neighborhood Empowerment Network NGO nongovernmental organization NMA National Meteorological Administration (Romania) NMHS National Meteorological and Hydrological Service RO-RISK Disaster Risk Evaluation at National Level (Romania) RSCCS Code for Building Safety against Earthquakes (Portugal) RSRS Roadmap for Safer and Resilient Schools SLICE Short- and Long-Term Impacts of Climate Extremes SGM Semi-Global Matching SMEs small and medium enterprises UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization UR Understanding Risk VHR very high-resolution

4 Proceedings from the 2019 UR Europe Conference Acknowledgments

This report highlights key knowledge and experience shared during the Understanding Risk Europe Conference, which took place in Bucharest, Romania, between November 27 and 29, 2019. Understanding Risk (UR) is a global community of 9,000-plus experts and practitioners from over 130 countries active in the creation, communication, and use of disaster risk knowledge to promote and build resilience across the globe.

It was established in 2009 by Emergency Situations of the We are very thankful to the the Global Facility for Disaster Ministry of Internal Affairs, the technical session leads and Ignite Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR), Romanian Agency for International speakers for their extensive housed at the World Bank. Development Cooperation, and efforts in organizing respective The proceedings, event videos, the GFDRR, which served as lead sessions. In order of the sessions, information about sessions and co-organizers of the conference, these include Samantha Cook, speakers, and presentations are along with the World Bank Group. Luiz de la Plaza Brigas, Hitoshi available at the event website: We would also like to thank the Baba, Carina Fonseca Ferreira, https://understandrisk.org/event/ Directorate General for European Radu Vacareanu, Alexandre Costa, ur-europe/. Civil Protection and Humanitarian Emil-Sever Georgescu, Carlos Aid Operations of the European Sousa Oliveira, Mauro Dolce, This conference brought Commission for its collaboration Daniel Kull, Sari Lappi, Florian together over 350 experts from and participation in the event. Pappenberger, Paolo Fiorucci, governments, development Gregor Gregoric, Gabriela Bancila, institutions, academia, civil society We are particularly grateful Mihaela Sima, George Manea, organizations, and the private to our opening, closing, and Alina Kasprovschi, Alexandra sector to address the shared keynote speakers: Dr. Raed Călin, Daniel Homsey, Cosmin burden of rising climate and Arafat, Secretary of State, Buteica, Mathijs van Ledden, disaster impacts across Europe, Ministry of Internal Affairs; Darko Milutin, Raimund Mair, and explore how technology and Tatiana Proskuryakova, World Thierry Davy, Nataša Milić, Janusz innovation can help create more Bank Country Manager Romania Zaleski, Clemens Neuhold, Sorin resilient societies. This report and Hungary; Pablo Suarez, Rindasu, Zuzana Stanton-Geddes, draws on the contributions of Associate Director for Research Ömer Inan, Jörg Schleenbecker, technical session leads, speakers, and Innovation at the Red Cross Dragana Radić Jovanović, Yann and special guests, as well as Red Crescent Climate Centre; Kerblat, Brian Walsh, Anne Zimmer, conference participants. We Otilia Ciotau, World Bank Senior Jun Rentschler, Manuela Sofia deeply appreciate their dedication Portfolio Manager; and Mr. Cătălin Stănculescu, Mihaela Toader, and commitment to improve Constantin Harnagea, Director António Sousa Gago, Fernando understanding of risk and of of RoAid - Romanian Agency for International Development Ramirez Cortes, Alina Sava, opportunities for innovation that Cooperation. We would also like Carli Bunding-Venter, Carlos can enhance the resilience of to thank Mr. Călin Alexandru, Castro, George Dimarelos, Mihai countries, cities, and communities Director General of the General Stirbulescu, Gaetano Vico, Vica across Europe. Directorate for Medical Emergency Bogaerts, Andreas Uttenthaler, We would like to extend sincere Management of the Department Max Ferguson, Zac Yang, Mihaela gratitude to the Government for Emergency Situations for Harmanescu, Xavier Gerard, of Romania, the Department for delivering the closing remarks. Tafadzwa Irvine Dube, Nora

5 Acknowledgments

Mirzoyan, Zeynap Gul Unal, dedicated professionals within Ioana-Alexandra Irimia, Oana Luca Ponticelli, Matei Sumbascu, the Department for Emergency Frant, Anne Mussotter, Alan Dinca, Raluca Trifa, Cristina Stefan, Situations: George Manea, Silviu Brice Robert Bonjour, Simone Mark Gallivan, Rosmarie DeWit, Stoian, Lt. Col. Cristian Maciuca, Balog-Way, Yann Kerblat, Jon Bogdan Carlescu, Maryia Plt. Nicolae Dumitra, Theodor Mikel Walton, Miki Fernandez, Markhvida, Manya Deyanova, Mihai, and Cristian Barbulescu. Lucio Apolito, David Tucker, Andrei Giuseppe Margani, Kelvin For their effort and support, we Zambor, Andreea Florescu, Mihai Berryman, and Marina Neagu. would also like to thank the core Preda, Ana Catauta, and Bogdan We kindly thank Dr. Raed Arafat, organizing team, led by Alanna Topan. The team also greatly Secretary of State, Ministry of Simpson and including Alexandra appreciates the support and Internal Affairs, as well as the Călin, Zuzana Stanton-Geddes, guidance provided by David Sislen.

Everyday, everybody has a responsibility in disaster risk management.

Alanna Simpson, Senior Disaster Risk Management Specialist.

6 Proceedings from the 2019 UR Europe Conference

Tatiana Proskuryakova, World Bank Country Manager, Romania and Hungary.

Foreword European countries are highly will be very difficult to ensure vulnerable cities in the world. exposed to the impacts of unless we step up our efforts Romania also suffers the most natural hazards. Between immediately to better identify and flood events in the EU (EEA 1980 and 2017, natural hazards, prepare for upcoming disasters. 2019) and ranks third for fastest- warming temperatures among the including devastating wildfires, Romania, the host country European Union’s 58 largest cities earthquakes, and floods, cost of this conference, is (Europe One Degree Warmer, European Union Member States particularly vulnerable to n.d.)—a sobering reality given over €511 billion (EEA 2019), disasters. Over the last century, Europe’s recent rash of deadly most of which was not insured, Romania has experienced 13 heat waves. and caused more than 91,000 major earthquakes, which casualties. A recent tragic claimed the lives of over 2,600 The World Bank is helping reminder of the risk at hand people and affected more than Romania to address this includes the 6.4 magnitude 400,000 others. In 1977, more challenge. We provide $600 earthquake that hit Albania on than 35,000 families were left million in investments and November 26, 2019. Climate homeless in a catastrophic contingent funding to help change, aging infrastructure earthquake that caused over Romania accelerate investments and buildings, and natural €1.8 billion in losses in 55 and undertake policy reforms hazards will only continue to seconds. Today, Bucharest is in disaster risk management. exacerbate existing risks and the still distinguished by the highest More specifically, in the case of vulnerabilities of our countries. seismic risk among all EU capital an imminent threat or in the Sustainable and inclusive growth cities and is one of the 10 most aftermath of a disaster, Romania

7 Foreword will benefit from a $493 million topic. In Bulgaria, we are starting point is improving access emergency fund available through providing advisory services to to data. For example, geospatial a World Bank financial instrument the government to support its data collection and analytics called a Catastrophe Deferred Flood Risk Management Plans by can be leveraged to improve Drawdown Option (World Bank defining risk areas and identifying our understanding of the built 2018b). We are also supporting measures in line with the EU environment before and after the modernization of emergency Floods Directive (World Bank disasters. In addition to technical infrastructure across the country 2018c). In Greece, Thessaloniki sessions, this conference also by ensuring that more than 3,000 citizens teamed up with the houses an information technology first responders can rely on safer local government and the Global (IT) corner composed of five and resilient response facilities Facility for Disaster Reduction important Romanian initiatives at any time (GFDRR 2019). and Recovery (GFDRR) to on behalf of Code 4Romania, Furthermore, we are working crowdsource safer routes to and CivicNet, CitizenNext, Trencadis, with the Romanian government from schools, harnessing open and Whitecell Technologies. to develop a new national multi- data principles to better inform Disaster resilience is a cross- hazard risk assessment (Ro- the public about natural hazards sectoral issue that requires Risk) to inform risk reduction (World Bank 2018a). In Poland, the collaboration of many investments across ministries we have mobilized funds for the actors. We are thankful to and help decision makers better Odra-Vistula Flood Management all our partners, experts, and understand the economic and Project, which aims to enhance representative of government, financial impacts of disasters. In flood protection infrastructure academia, civil society, and the Bucharest, we are working with and related measures that will private sector for sharing their the General City Hall to identify protect 5 million people from the knowledge and experience in sustainable and accelerated harmful effects of floods (World understanding disaster risk to methods to improve the Bank 2015). guide policies and investments for performance of the city’s Seismic Technology and innovation more resilient societies. Risk Reduction Program (World in the field can help Bank 2019). tremendously in making Beyond Romania, the World societies more resilient. To Tatiana Proskuryakova Bank collaborates with many allow innovation to improve World Bank Country Manager, countries on this important disaster risk management, a Romania and Hungary

References and Further Resources

EEA (European Environment Agency). 2019. “Economic Losses from Climate-Related Extremes in Europe.” European Environment Agency. Europe One Degree Warmer. n.d. “Temperature Trends Since 1900 in and around Bucharest.” https://www.onedegreewarmer.eu/city/Bucuresti. GFDRR (Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery). 2019. “Accelerating Risk Reduction through Forward-Looking Investments and Policies in Romania.” http://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/567591569916818709/Romania-Risk-Reduction-2pager-October-2019.pdf. RO-Risk. https://www.ro-risk.ro/SitePages/Pornire.aspx. World Bank. 2015. “World Bank Board Approves US$504 Million Support to Odra-Vistula Flood Management Project.” Press release. July 23. ———. 2018a. “In Thessaloniki, Citizen Engagement and Open Data Play Key Role Protecting Against Natural Disasters.” June 20. ———. 2018b. “World Bank Support to Resilience Protects Livelihoods, Safeguards Economic Gains in Romania.” Press release. June 26. https:// www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2018/06/26/romania-cat-ddo. ———. 2018c. “World Bank to Support Bulgaria Action on River Management.” Press release. June 25. https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/ press-release/2018/06/25/world-bank-to-support-bulgaria-action-on-river-management. ———. 2019. “World Bank Partners with Municipality of Bucharest to Support Economic and Urban Development and Reduce Seismic Risk.” Press release. March 4. https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2019/03/04/world-bank-partners-with-municipality-of- bucharest-to-support-economic-and-urban-development-and-reduce-seismic-risk.

8 Proceedings from the 2019 UR Europe Conference

Dr. Raed Arafat, Secretary of State, Head of the Department for Emergency Situations, Ministry of Internal Affairs, Romania.

Opening remarks Emergency Preparedness in Romania In his welcoming remarks, Dr. Ministry of Internal Affairs is noted the many opportunities Raed Arafat, Secretary of State, the operational center that that governments have to Ministry of Internal Affairs coordinates at the national improve their capacities. In the and Chief of the Department level all activities related to the aftermath of disaster, it is critical for Emergency Situations, prevention and management that emergency coordination underlined the importance of of emergency situations. The centers and rescue facilities are the Understanding Risk Europe General Inspectorate for undamaged and fully operational, Conference, which brought Emergency Situations, the with staff uninjured, equipment together over 350 participants General Inspectorate of Aviation, undamaged, and energy, water, from 82 countries, united by a the ambulance services of and communication systems common resolve to build more the 41 counties and the City functional. It is also critical resilient societies. He noted of Bucharest, the emergency that expected coverage of the range of disaster resilience rooms of the public hospitals, emergency operations—including stakeholders attending the and the public Mountain Rescue fire and ambulance services, conference, including civil services are all coordinated by coordination centers, and police protection authorities, civil the Department for Emergency and gendarmerie units—is not society organizations, academia, Situations. compromised by physical damage volunteers, and technical to buildings and equipment. Dr. Arafat emphasized the specialists. importance of investing in Dr. Arafat highlighted the recent The Department for Emergency preventive actions in emergency progress made by Romania Situations under the Romanian disaster management, and in emergency response. The

9 Opening remarks country has allocated over €900 2018, 2019a, 2019b), the Ministry gendarmerie personnel. In million in civil protection, medical of Internal Affairs will retrofit addition to enhancing Romania’s emergency response, disaster and upgrade priority critical capacity in emergency situations, response, and search and rescue infrastructure and strengthen this initiative can also foster the activities, as well as in efforts to its operational capacity in sharing of best practices within counter floods and other risks. the coming years. This effort the Ministry of Internal Affairs Dr. Arafat shared the example includes over 35 first responders’ and beyond. of the collaboration between buildings used by some 1,700 the Department for Emergency rescue personnel, emergency In closing, Dr. Arafat cited the Situations and the World Bank, and disaster management staff, protection of citizens as a duty of which includes retrofitting volunteers, and administrative all countries. He also underlined the and upgrading of critical first- staff; over 35 police buildings importance of pursuing emergency responder infrastructure. used by almost 4,000 police preparedness through a whole-of- Supported through a series of personnel; and 27 gendarmerie society approach where everybody investment projects (World Bank facilities used by 4,248 Romanian has a role to play:

“We need everyone. We need the people at the base of the community, up to the level of the president of the country. They are all part of the mechanism to deal with disasters and to reduce their impact.” Dr. Raed Arafat Secretary of State, Ministry of Internal Affairs

References and Further Resources World Bank. 2018. “Romania—Strengthening Disaster Risk Management Project.” Project Appraisal Document PAD2759, World Bank, Washington, DC. June 27. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/966501532662229209/Romania-Strengthening-Disaster-Risk- Management-Project.

———. 2019a. “Romania—Improving Resilience and Emergency Response Project.” Project Appraisal Document PAD3151, World Bank, Washington, DC. May 6. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/541861559440866182/pdf/Romania-Improving-Resilience-and- Emergency-Response-Project.pdf.

———. 2019b. “Romania—Strengthening Preparedness and Critical Emergency Infrastructure Project.” Project Appraisal Document PAD3169, World Bank, Washington, DC. May 6. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/544671559440844451/pdf/Romania-Strengthening- Preparedness-and-Critical-Emergency-Infrastructure-Project-PAD.pdf.

10 Proceedings from the 2019 UR Europe Conference

“Sustainable development, good governance and disaster risk reduction are mutually supporting agendas. Natural disasters can affect the countries’ entire economic, human and physical environment, as well as their long-term development plans.”

Cătălin Harnagea, Director General, RoAid.

Welcome remarks

The Romanian Agency for Natural disasters can affect the by strengthening resilience and International Development countries’ entire economic, human adapting capacities to climate- Cooperation, or RoAid, has a and physical environment, as well related hazards and natural mandate to implement projects as their long-term development disasters. and programs in the field of plans. As part of our excellent international development and Therefore, through our partnership with the Romanian humanitarian aid, as well as to engagement, we seek to support Department for Emergency facilitate the transfer of expertise our partners in achieving their Situations, we also contributed to from the Romanian public development objectives as well the Understanding Risk Europe institutions and authorities to our as to reduce their vulnerability Conference. RoAid has facilitated partner countries. vis-à-vis natural disasters. In the participation of multiple As an institution, RoAid places doing so, our collaboration with delegations from outside Europe great value in investing in disaster the Romanian Department for comprised by representatives risk reduction and civil protection Emergency Situations is of critical of twenty-seven countries from projects, and supports the efforts importance. all across Africa, the Caribbean of partner countries to build and the Pacific regions. We are In the context of the UN Agenda capacity in this field. confident that their participation in 2030, our joint projects with this conference will contribute to It is well-known that sustainable the Department for Emergency the diversity of perspectives and development, good governance Situations are contributing richness of discussions. and disaster risk reduction are to achieving the Sustainable mutually supporting agendas. Development Goals, particularly

11 Joaquin Toro Senior Disaster Risk Management Specialist, World Bank (Host)

Ignite 01 Ignite 02 Ignite 03 Cristina Stefan Emil-Sever Georgescu Daniel Kull Global Crisis Risk Platform, The NIRD URBAN-INCERC World Bank World Bank Session 2 Session 3 Session 13

Ignite 04 Ignite 05 Ignite 06 Manya Deyanova Jun Rentschler Radu Vacareanu Technical Mott MacDonald, Bulgaria World Bank/GFDRR University of Civil Engineering Session 14 Session 10 of Bucharest, Romania Session 8

12 Proceedings from the 2019 UR Europe Conference

Ignite 07 Ignite 08 Ignite 09 Carli Bunding-Venter Cosmin Buteica Luiz de la Plaza Brigas World Bank World Bank World Bank Session 9 Session 5 Session 1

Ignite 10 Ignite 11 Ignite 12 Alina Kasprovschi Yann Kerblat Matei Sumbasacu Bucharest Community World Bank Re: RiSe Foundation, Bucharest, Romania Session 7 Session 12 Session 4

Joaquin Toro, Ignites Host. Ignite 13 Zuzana Stanton-Geddes #UnderstandingRisk World Bank Session 6 Youtube @GFDRR

13 Session 1

Assessing and addressing the fiscal and economic impacts of natural disasters: Recent experiences and innovations in country financial resilience

Session Contributors Session Summary Samantha Cook, World Bank Luiz de la Plaza Brigas, World Bank Developing countries face an increasingly complex risk Hitoshi Baba, JICA landscape. Interconnected hazards threaten to roll back development gains and undermine efforts to end extreme poverty and boost shared prosperity. Many countries are richer not because they have grown faster than poorer ones, but because they have had fewer episodes in which crises or conflicts shrank their economies. Climate change will further increase the intensity of weather extremes, exacerbating these impacts. This session showed the results of some countries, including Mexico, Colombia, Chile, Peru, the Philippines, and Jamaica, that have partnered with the World Bank in bringing to market sizable, innovative transactions in recent years. This session showcased some of this collaboration, sharing experience from a number of countries.

Ravenna, Italy - January 15, 2019: People and journalists following authorities of Ravenna to the Prefecture to discuss damages caused by the earthquake. 14 Photo: © GoneWithTheWind | Dreamstime.com. Proceedings from the 2019 UR Europe Conference

Background disasters such as droughts and clients to access international protracted shocks result not only markets for risk transfer Disaster shocks and other in humanitarian impacts and loss schemes. Over the past years, crises are a significant source to livelihoods but also in economic a range of countries, including of contingent liabilities and shocks, such as losses related to Mexico, Colombia, Chile, Peru, the contingent revenue losses for the disruption of agriculture value Philippines, Jamaica, and others, governments. Governments face chains or energy price shocks due have partnered with the World significant contingent liabilities to reduced hydropower generation. Bank to develop comprehensive related to disasters, as they tend In line with these facts, the financial packages to strengthen to shoulder a large share of the World Bank is working on financial resilience against natural cost of response, recovery, and improving the quantification disasters. Providing end-to-end reconstruction in the aftermath of budgetary impacts and support for natural disaster risk of rapid-onset shocks or as a impacts on debt sustainability insurance is one of the many ways result of long-term stresses. to minimize the macro-fiscal that the World Bank helps member Sources of government liabilities impacts in advance of an countries to build resilience in the aftermath of disaster event. Analytics has guided the against economic and natural shocks include fiscal transfers development and subsequent disaster risk. The International to subnational governments, adoption of pre-arranged financial Bank for Reconstruction and rehabilitation of (public and instruments to provide finance Development’s AAA credit rating, sometimes private) damaged when it is needed most urgently, market presence, and convening assets, immediate relief and which is immediately after a power allow the World Bank livelihood support, assistance to disaster hits. Supporting the Treasury Financial Products team households, assistance to small accessibility of such instruments, to develop innovative products that enterprises, and stabilization of the World Bank has developed a help clients maximize financing and the private sector. Slow-onset flexible platform that allows its mitigate risk.

Ravenna, Italy - January 15, 2019: People and journalists following authorities of Ravenna to the Prefecture to discuss damages caused by the earthquake. Photo: © GoneWithTheWind | Dreamstime.com. 15 Assessing and addressing the fiscal and economic impacts of natural disasters: Recent experiences and innovations in country financial resilience

Case Studies preparedness solutions to disaster financing options—all complement financial solutions without increasing sovereign debt. The World Bank’s engagement to promote faster recovery. Once the Pacific Alliance countries on disaster risk management The example of the East Nippon decided to transfer catastrophe issues with client countries is Highway Express served to risk to the capital markets, they predicated upon a strategic demonstrate how having pre- requested support from the switch to an ex ante approach arranged contracts in place can World Bank, the leading provider (i.e., preparedness for natural promote faster reconstruction. of natural disaster risk insurance disasters before they occur) and Information on establishment of for emerging and developing away from an ex post approach contingency plans and business countries. The World Bank (i.e., response to an event once continuity plans was shared with delivered end-to-end support for it has materialized). Throughout participants, emphasizing the need the complex process, offering the World Bank’s engagement, to ensure that financial resilience specialized technical assistance emphasis is placed on knowledge and physical resilience are transfer and technical assistance interlinked and complementary. and facilitating the execution of to client countries to reduce capital market transactions. fiscal vulnerabilities to natural Pacific Alliance The 2018 Pacific Alliance CAT disasters by identifying, A recent example of sizable, bond was the first simultaneous quantifying, preparing for, and innovative risk transfer issuance for four sovereign responding to them in the most transactions was the multicountry entities, as well as the largest efficient manner. The World $1.4 billion catastrophe (CAT) earthquake CAT bond ever issued. Bank Group aggregates within bond executed in February 2018 The transaction exemplifies its different departments all for the Pacific Alliance (Colombia, the World Bank’s ability to the necessary subject matter Chile, Mexico, and Peru), through help member countries access expertise, from formulation which the World Bank helped insurance through the capital to implementation of a the four countries insure markets and has established the comprehensive disaster risk themselves against earthquake World Bank as a leader in this role. financing strategy. risk. Understanding the significant The CAT bond attracted more financial implications that than 45 investors globally, ranging Experience from Japan earthquakes can have for a from dedicated insurance-linked The session benefited from country’s economy, the finance securities funds to pension funds a presentation by Dr. Hitoshi ministers of the four countries to reinsurance companies, and it Baba of the Japan International set the ambitious goal of working resulted in approximately $2.5 Cooperation Agency (JICA), who together to address this risk, billion in investor orders. The shared the experience of Japan increase countries’ resilience to high demand resulted in lower in developing and implementing natural disasters, and expand their premium rates.

The World Bank Group aggregates within its different departments all the necessary subject matter expertise, from formulation to implementation of a comprehensive disaster risk financing strategy.

16 Session 2 Proceedings from the 2019 UR Europe Conference

Managing earthquake risk at a national scale: From strategic planning to on-the-ground actions

Session Contributors Carina Fonseca Ferreira, World Bank Maryia Markhvida, World Bank Mauro Dolce, Italian Department of Civil Protection, Italy Session Summary Kelvin Berryman, GNS Science, New Zealand How are countries managing earthquake risk at a national level? This session convened authorities and specialists Radu Vacareanu, Technical University of Civil Engineering of from Romania, Italy, Portugal, to discuss how earthquake Bucharest, Romania risk reduction actions are planned and what the main António Sousa Gago, Instituto challenges and opportunities are for translating national Superior Técnico, Universidade de programs into on-the-ground action at scale. Lisboa, Portugal Alexandre Costa, NCREP- Consultoria em Reabilitação do Edificado e Património, Lda, Portugal

Lisbon, Portugal, during the great earthquake of 1 November 1755. This copper engraving, made that year, shows the city in ruins and in flames. Tsunamis rush upon the shore, destroying the wharfs. The engraving is also noteworthy in showing highly disturbed water in the harbor, which sank many ships. 17 Managing earthquake risk at a national scale: From strategic planning to on-the-ground actions

Background

Earthquake-prone countries around the world face the challenge of managing earthquake risk at a national scale. In the last decades, countries have progressively moved from a reactive approach to a proactive risk reduction approach aimed at minimizing the impact of future earthquakes on people, livelihoods, services, and growth.

Case Studies

The morning of the earthquake, Amatrice, Italy. Photo: © Antonio Nardelli | Dreamstime.com.

Italy level by the Prime Minister’s supporting risk-based prioritization Office. Scientific institutions, civil of investments (including Italy is among the European society, and the private sector microzonation, risk assessment, and countries most affected by are important components of the earthquakes. The 1980 Irpinia urban and emergency planning). civil protection system. Under the earthquake represented a turning Seismic microzonation studies coordination of the DCP, scientific point for disaster risk management are integrated into urban plans at institutions are responsible for municipality level with methods in Italy with the restructuring of producing hazard, exposure, consistently defined at national the disaster response system and and vulnerability information level by the DCP. In addition, the creation of the Department that the DCP uses to estimate sectoral programs for seismic risk of Civil Protection (DCP) as a seismic risk, to strategically plan reduction in education, health, and coordination body. The national risk reduction programs, and to other facilities are managed by the civil protection system in Italy is allocate funds to the regions to regulated by the Civil Protection implement on-the-ground risk respective ministries. To reduce the Code, which was issued in 2018 to reduction intervention works. The vulnerability of private buildings, supersede a number of separate national seismic risk reduction the government covers one-third laws established since 1982 to program in Italy includes structural of the costs. Private owners can regulate civil protection activities intervention works to reduce the also benefit from fiscal incentives in the country. The civil protection vulnerability of existing buildings, if they decide to retrofit their system is managed at central and nonstructural activities properties to reduce seismic risk.

18 Proceedings from the 2019 UR Europe Conference

Romania seismic risk of existing buildings. Figure 2: Annual average losses due The ordinance prioritizes the to earthquakes in Portugal. Earthquake is the natural hazard highest-risk buildings identified in most likely to cause fatalities and the 1990s for public co-financing economic losses in Romania (Figure of seismic retrofitting works and 1).1 The capital city, Bucharest, is Braga details the seismic retrofitting among the European cities with program for multi-story residential the highest seismic risk. Around 60 Porto buildings. The government is percent of the existing residential currently assessing the progress building stock in Bucharest was achieved by this program to date Coimbra built prior to the 1977 Vrancea and preparing a new national earthquake in accordance with seismic risk reduction strategy and low seismic design levels. It was investment plan to scale up results SPAIN only after the Vrancea earthquake on the ground, with technical that seismic design regulations support from the World Bank. Lisbon in Romania started enforcing ductility requirements to improve Portugal Evora Setubal the performance of constructions Portugal is an earthquake- to earthquakes. As a result, prone country that has been

thousands of existing buildings historically affected by damaging Value (M USD) in Bucharest and across Romania earthquakes (Figure 2). The 1755 n 0.5 – 0.5 are vulnerable to earthquakes Lisbon earthquake devastated n 0.5 – 1.0 n and require retrofitting works to 1.0 – 1.9 Portugal’s capital, and the oldest n 1.9 – 15.0 improve their performance. The recorded large-scale recovery and n 15.0 – 34.0 government of Romania issued reconstruction process in the world Government Ordinance 20/1994 took place in its aftermath. Since Source: Global Earthquake Model – Country on measures to reduce the 1958, when the first regulation risk profiles. GEM Foundation. for the safety of constructions

The morning of the earthquake, Amatrice, Italy. Photo: © Antonio Nardelli | Dreamstime.com. Figure 1: Potentially damaged residential buildings in Romania under an against earthquakes (RSCCS) was earthquake scenario with a return period of 1,000 years. put in place, building regulations for seismic design of new constructions have evolved in Portugal along with technical progress and best earthquake engineering practice of the time. Around 25 percent of existing buildings in Portugal were built before the first 1958 regulation was in place. The vast majority of existing buildings, around 70 percent, were built in accordance with the 1958 regulation and before the RSCCS was superseded in 1983 by the regulation for the safety of building structures and bridges (RSA). In 2014, a law was published to regulate urban rehabilitation in

Portugal (law 53/2014, known as Source: RO-RISK Project. RERU); however, it did not specify

1 General Inspectorate for Emergency Situations at https://www.igsu.ro/index.php?pagina=analiza_riscuri.

19 Managing earthquake risk at a national scale: From strategic planning to on-the-ground actions any requirements in terms of the buildings. A new government assessment when the planned seismic performance. As a result, ordinance was published in 2019 intervention will change the many existing houses were (ordinance 302/2019) which structural behavior of the building, rehabilitated without considering changed the paradigm by making more than 25 percent of the the vulnerability of the buildings. the seismic vulnerability assessment built-up area will be intervened, This situation led to an increase in of an existing building mandatory or the total cost the intervention seismic risk due to a change in the under certain circumstances. works is above 25 percent of the use of the building or occupancy This ordinance states that the replacement cost. rate, as well as intervention works rehabilitation of an existing building that increased the vulnerability of must include a seismic vulnerability

Key Challenges Key Solutions Recommendations and Conclusion Key challenges include the The following solutions could following: address the identified challenges: Reducing risk at national scale is a long-term effort, which requires ● Financial capacity of national ● Seismic risk management as and subnational governments an institutionalized process strategic planning and leadership. to reduce vulnerability of coordinated by an institution While a national strategy normally existing public assets and co- with strong convening power defines the overall objectives, finance intervention works in targets, and prioritization process ● private residential buildings Integration of seismic to reduce risk, the implementation retrofitting works into of specific operations is normally ● Lack of planning processes comprehensive renovation conducted at subnational level. that can produce risk programs to increase the Building technical capacity of data and use the data efficiency of the investments local governments and mobilizing systematically to inform the through upgrades on safety financing for implementation are design and implementation of and energy efficiency of therefore critical to achieve actual intervention programs as well existing buildings results on the ground. as prioritization of investments ● and allocation of funds Risk-based prioritization of investments aimed at ● Lack of local technical capacity maximizing the benefits in to design and implement terms of risk reduction targets seismic retrofitting works and people benefitted

● Poor communication between ● Development of systematic institutions and citizens and and tailored communication lack of public awareness on strategies and public awareness seismic risk and risk reduction campaigns to progressively solutions inform, build trust among, and promote buy-in by different stakeholders who play a key role in implementing actions on the ground.

20 Session 3 Proceedings from the 2019 UR Europe Conference

Leveraging regional systems to improve national forecasting and early warning of weather-related hazards

Session Contributors Session Summary Daniel Kull, World Bank Sari Lappi, World Meteorological Organization Because Europe faces cross-border hazards, strong Florian Pappenberger, European Centre for regional cooperation is essential to ensure the safety Medium-Range Weather Forecasts of European citizens. Regional monitoring, forecasting, Paolo Fiorucci, CIMA Foundation (Centro and early warning systems for weather- and climate- Internazionale in Monitoraggio Ambientale), related hazards have been developed to support national Italy authorities in provision of timely and accurate hazard Gregor Gregoric, Drought Management information and warnings for planning and executing Centre for Southeastern Europe, Slovenia needed actions at national level. It is essential that Gabriela Băncilă, Romania National adequate resources are available at both regional Meteorological Administration and national level to continue the work of developing Mihaela Sima, Institute of Geography of the and improving the regional systems. Efforts are also Romanian Academy needed to improve the utilization of the many regional systems available, for example by improving training and knowledge transfer, clarifying roles and responsibilities at national level (taking into account the different national and subregional circumstances), and considering new ways of developing the systems, such as implementing a multi-hazard approach.

Disaster management

Early warning

21 21 Leveraging regional systems to improve national forecasting and early warning of weather-related hazards

Background leverage this information for countries. For example, during national services to protect their autumn 2019, severe storms and The impact of natural disasters country and its citizens. Methods floods caused significant impacts goes beyond national boundaries. for verification and quality control in many parts of Europe, including Recognizing the transboundary of regional and national warning the United Kingdom, Spain, France, nature of weather hazards, service delivery were highlighted. Austria, Italy, and Greece; a in particular storms, floods, number of people lost their lives, Europe is exposed to a variety of droughts and wildfires, this hundreds were evacuated from hydrometeorological and climate- session explored the regional their homes, and material damages related hazards, including heavy monitoring and forecasting were significant. In summer 2019, systems available in Europe. These precipitation causing floods and Europe experienced a heat wave systems exist to provide timely landslides, droughts and wildfires, that set all-time high temperature warning and sufficient technical prolonged cold and heat waves, records in many countries and data on impending hazards to and severe thunderstorms and contributed to the deaths of inform national and regional hailstorms. These hazards cause hundreds of people. level decision making on planning significant impacts to human lives National Meteorological and and executing domestic actions. and livelihoods and to functioning Hydrological Services (NMHSs) play European systems are considered of key sectors, as well as damages an important role in protection of global leaders in good practice, to properties and infrastructure. the lives and livelihoods of people owing much of their success to It is expected that due to by providing early warnings for the cooperation and established climate change, the frequency hydrometeorological and climate- data-sharing mechanisms across and severity of these hazards related hazards. Their responsibility borders, as well as their leveraging will increase in the future. This is to provide support to disaster of modern ICT and remote sensing. increase, combined with changes in land use patterns and increased risk management authorities and The session focused on delivering human settlements in areas various socioeconomic sectors services, starting with how prone to disasters, could lead to through provision of timely and accurate hydrometeorological and European monitoring and increased risks in the coming years. forecasting systems produce and climate-related information and ensure receipt of the information Disasters are often transboundary warnings. Utilization of regional national authorities need to fulfil in nature: severe storms, floods, systems and data sources greatly their institutional responsibilities. and wildfires frequently cross increases NMHSs’ capabilities for Session presenters explored how country borders, and droughts, providing forecasts and warnings the Romanian forecasting and heat waves, and cold waves affect for other national authorities and disaster management authorities areas much larger than individual citizens.

“Powers of Ten” by Charles and Ray Eames, 1977.

22 Proceedings from the 2019 UR Europe Conference

Case Studies prediction, which no one country at national and regional scales. could tackle on its own, aiming EFFIS supports the services European, subregional, to avoid duplication of national in charge of protecting and national services and capabilities and instead to extend forests against fires in the EU programs and complement them. countries and provides the European Commission services The European Centre for In addition to the core Medium-Range Weather organizations implementing the and the European Parliament Forecasts (ECMWF), European operational infrastructures, a with updated and reliable Organization for the Exploitation number of initiatives and programs information on wildland fires in of Meteorological Satellites are implemented at European and Europe. (EUMETSAT), European National subregional level to monitor and ● The Drought Management Meteorological Services forecast specific weather- and Centre for Southeastern Network (EUMETNET), and climate-related hazards. A number Europe (DMCSEE) is hosted European NMHSs cooperate of these were discussed during the by the Slovenian Environment closely to implement operational session: infrastructures and resources Agency with the mission to required to provide a ● The European Flood Awareness coordinate and facilitate the comprehensive meteorological System (EFAS) under the EU development, assessment, system for Europe, including Copernicus Program aims to and application of drought risk ground and space-based support preparatory measures management tools and policies observations, numerical before major flood events in southeastern Europe, with weather prediction models, and strike, particularly in the large the goal of improving drought forecasting services. ECMWF is an transnational river basins preparedness and reducing independent intergovernmental but also throughout Europe drought impacts. DMCSEE organization providing 24-7 in general. EFAS provides coordinated the implementation operational service for production complementary, added-value of the DriDanube project, of global numerical weather information—for example, in the which developed a web-based predictions and other data for form of probabilistic, medium- interactive tool for near- the center’s Member States and range flood forecasts, flash real-time drought monitoring Cooperating States as well as the flood indicators, and impact through different drought broader community. ECMWF has forecasts for relevant national indices to enable more and regional authorities. one of the largest supercomputer accurate and efficient drought facilities and meteorological ● The Copernicus Program also monitoring and early warning data archives in the world and covers the European Forest for the entire Danube region provides services for operational Fire Information System as well as integration of risk forecasting and research activities. (EFFIS), which monitors forest and impact maps. DriDanube The ECMWF’s role is to address fire activity in near-real time strategies and methodologies the critical and most difficult in Europe, the Middle East, for drought impact and research problems in global and North Africa and which risk assessment were also medium-range numerical weather supports wildfire management developed.

Even the most local risks are driven to some degree by the global system.

23 Leveraging regional systems to improve national forecasting and early warning of weather-related hazards

The case of Romania Figure 3: COSMO model. In Romania, the National Meteorological Administration 2.8 km horizontal resolution—up to 30 h–4 runs/day sampling frequency (NMA) has a mandate to of 1 hour contribute to the protection of life and property against weather disasters, to monitor weather and climate, and to provide weather forecasts and advisories to central, regional, and local authorities and other stakeholders. NMA operates an observation network of fundamental importance for the country’s operational meteorology and research activities. NMA cooperates with European meteorological bodies (including ECMWF, EUMETSAT, LMN COSMO–RO and EUMETNET) and regional 10 COSMO–2.8km projects and programs and also carries out national level projects to Source: Romanian National Meteorological Administration. strengthen their core activities. For example, Figure 3 shows a 78-hour wind forecast at high resolution protection authorities are among drought/desertification, such as (2.8 km), which is computed by the most important users of the RO-RISK project (Disaster Risk the Romanian COSMO model using the information, forecasts, and Evaluation at National Level). boundary conditions from European warnings that the NMA provides. partners and initial conditions from Other Romanian institutions are Challenges the national observation network. engaged in active research and Utilizing national resources as well operational activities related to There are a number of challenges as regional systems, NMA provides identification and monitoring regarding leveraging regional forecasts and warnings stemming of hazards and their impacts systems to improve forecasting from operational activities and and improving preparedness and warning provision at the specialized products to a number for disasters. The Institute of national level: of national stakeholders, including Geography has been involved in ● Availability of reliable, high- governmental institutions for several international projects quality, and adequate resolution informational and decision-making studying the impact on society data (either observations or purposes; central, regional, and and the environment of extreme modeled data) at national level, local authorities in the field events related to global and availability of these data of environmental protection; environmental change. The to improve the reliability of institutions for agriculture, research has been performed regional systems water management, energy, at local, regional, national, and transport, and tourism; and transnational scales, using GIS ● Efficient utilization of the media and citizens. With extreme (geographic information system), information and products that weather events becoming more remote sensing technologies, the regional systems provide to frequent and/or severe and and process-based models. The safeguard lives and livelihoods having serious consequences research includes case studies of people at national and local for society and ecosystems, the on vulnerability and resilience levels, especially when many disaster management and civil related to landslides, floods, and systems are available

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● Translation of the knowledge development of regional regional approach is essential since gained from the system systems disasters are often transboundary, to increase the response affecting large areas beyond ● Provision of training to the capabilities of the local country borders. Therefore, it is stakeholders who are utilizing communities at risk essential that adequate resources the information from the are available at both regional and ● Clear definition of roles and regional systems at national national levels to continue the work responsibilities at the national and local levels level, including defining the to develop and improve the regional leading roles, to ensure the systems. Efforts are also needed appropriate cooperation with Recommendations to improve the utilization of the the regional institutions and and Conclusion many regional systems available, program for example by improving training The regional systems for monitoring and knowledge transfer, clarifying ● Continuing support of the and forecasting weather- and roles and responsibilities at national research sector to improve climate-related hazards significantly level (taking into account the the tools for monitoring and improve the potential of national different national and subregional forecasting authorities to respond in an circumstances), and considering ● Possibility of taking into efficient and timely manner to new ways for developing the account national characteristics hazards, which are increasing in systems, such as implementing a and circumstances in the frequency and severity in Europe. A multi-hazard approach.

It is essential that adequate resources are available at both regional and national levels to continue the work to develop and improve the regional systems.

Source: https://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/OSY/images/GOS-fullsize.jpg.

25 Session 4

Community engagement, raising awareness, and driving action

Session Contributors Session Summary Alexandra Călin, World Bank Understanding population vulnerabilities, raising George Manea, Department for Emergency Situations, Ministry of Interior, Romania awareness, and driving action to ensure effective disaster mitigation are critical to ensure better preparedness and Alina Kasprovschi, Bucharest Community Foundation, Bucharest, Romania better response. Better understanding of community risk is a shared responsibility that requires strong Daniel Homsey, Neighborhood Empowerment Network, San Francisco, California collaboration between public and private stakeholders. This session highlighted community engagement initiatives that seek to increase public awareness and catalyze citizen engagement to drive commitment to action and improve disaster preparedness at the community level.

Seek to increase public awareness and catalyze citizen engagement to drive commitment to action and improve disaster preparedness at the community level.

Top photo: Bucharest ‘Red Dot’ labelled buildings. Bucharest ‘Red Dot’ labelled buildings. Above: Bucharest Community Foundation— 26 “For 7 years we have been supporting people who change Bucharest.” Proceedings from the 2019 UR Europe Conference

Background

Communities often bear the brunt of disaster impacts. In line with the need for a more coordinated and proactive disaster risk management, the need to strengthen community engagement in all aspects of disaster risk management is now widely recognized. Experience shows that there is a high dependence on local capacity and response immediately after a disaster strikes. The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 also recommends broader community engagement in the development of international, national, and local policy on risk management and emergency response.

Case Studies The Bucharest Community for Emergency Situations, the Foundation raises funds from public authority managing and Bucharest Community local businesses and individual coordinating disaster preparedness Foundation: Bucharest donors to develop communities and response in Romania. in Bucharest. The vision for the Prepared program Bucharest Prepared program San Francisco: Bucharest is the most earthquake- is to have no single resident in The Neighborhood prone capital city in the EU Bucharest unprepared for the Empowerment Network because of its proximity to the next big earthquake. The first Mr. Daniel Homsey, the director of Vrancea earthquake zone, which open round of calls for projects to the Neighborhood Empowerment NGOs and initiative groups took can produce earthquakes as strong Network (NEN) for the City place in 2019, and it managed to as magnitude 8.1 (World Bank Administrator’s Office of the City raise €100,000 in financial support 2018). With a young, vibrant civil and County of San Francisco, from IKEA, ING Bank, and Lidl. society in Romania (Calin 2019), shared the tools the organization The five winning projects that the country’s focus on community uses for building stronger received the grants include first preparedness for disasters is still neighborhoods and more resilient aid training activities, search and relatively new. Most of the small communities. He made the case grassroots nongovernmental rescue training and certification for dogs, neighborhood awareness for why it is best to empower organizations (NGOs) and other campaigns, and enhancement people to help themselves in order organizations that work on this of parallel radio communication to have a resilient community agenda are new and lack necessary systems. Given the financial prepared for any disaster. Mr. funding for their ideas and support of the private companies Homsey described how disasters projects. To address this need, the in the first grant – making round, impact the lives of people, such Bucharest Prepared program, a 2 other private sector partners as fires in San Francisco that grant-making fund for earthquake joined the program ensuring isolated thousands of people, and other major disasters, financial support, so more grant- including his mother and her was developed by Bucharest making rounds can be planned in entire community, leaving them Community Foundation. Ms. 2020. While the problem is bigger without electricity for days. He Alina Kasprovschi, the executive than what the Bucharest Program also described fires on the Greek director of the foundation, is trying to address, the Bucharest islands that forced evacuations, described the program, which Community Foundation is working and the November 2019 floods gathers resources and supports on leveling what communities in Venice3 that led to the highest projects that seek to inform themselves can do to be better water levels in the region in more and educate the residents of prepared for an earthquake than 50 years, leaving around 70 Bucharest and to create a support and become resilient, while percent of the lagoon city center network in case of an earthquake. coordinating with the Department under saltwater, affecting the

2 Reporting on the 2019 wildfire season, Cal Fire and the U.S. Forest Service counted more than 7,860 fires affecting an estimated 259,823 acres (105,147 hectares) as of December 22, 2019. 3 Two months after the second-highest flood in its history, in November last year, Venice’s canals have been left dry by exceptionally low tides.

27 Community engagement, raising awareness, and driving action tourism sector, and challenging the to a Milken Institute School of One of NEN’s key programs is the resilience of residents. Public Health project report related Empowered Communities Program to Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico, (ECP), through which all residents, “Resilience” is understood as a community engagement during regardless of socioeconomic way to describe how something the crisis, risk communication condition, receive year-round performs when it is under stress. In preparedness, and risk planning culturally competent preparedness a city, this can be broken into five processes could all be strengthened support and get the help they core elements: built environment, by using participatory approaches need to maintain their health and networks, economy, institutions, and establishing strategies to well-being during times of stress.5 and communities. A community capitalize on this engagement for The approach ECP uses is to can be understood as a group improved communication during the plan and design with people and of individuals, organizations, or response and recovery period. For not for them. The ECP receives networks. Community “resilience” example, interpersonal networks support and resources from the is thus about connections, capacity, could be used to disseminate member agencies of the NEN and resources. information as a complement to in order to create action plans, The self-sufficiency of a community mass media channels. strategies, tools, and trainings is important. A community can that the communities use to To apply the lessons learned become more resilient through build neighborhood resilience. It from Katrina, the Neighborhood the continuation of the services, offers real value to stakeholder Empowerment Network (NEN) energy supplies, food and water organizations from all sectors at takes an approach that empowers resources, communication means all levels, and most importantly, communities and guides their and transportation systems. it drives ownership at the investment for a resilient future.4 The cooperation between public neighborhood level through the The NEN is a cohort of residents, institutions, private sector and transfer of power. Another critical government agencies, nonprofits, civil society is crucial in order to program of the NEN is the ECP faith-based organizations, academic increase the level of resilience HUB Program, which supports institutions, private sector actors, and to ensure the selection and neighborhoods as they create a and philanthropic organizations implementation of the right local network of organizations that are committed to building a measures for the protection of that provide support to residents stronger, more connected, and local communities (Manea 2017). recovering from a stressful resilient San Francisco. Its vision event, while building the overall is a strong, connected city where A study from the Harvard Kennedy preparedness of the community every resident, organization, and School that builds on lessons from (ECP 2016). Finally, NEN also uses community has streamlined access Hurricane Katrina shows that the popularity of block parties to the resources, strategies, and communities must invest today in to build social capital, thereby expertise they need to advance capable local leadership that can strengthening the connections their individual and collective drive rapid, substantive action, and trust that are highly critical in resilience. NEN’s mission is to while focusing on inclusiveness periods of stress, as they enable advance the leadership capacity and embracing self-reliance. collective action. The Neighborfest of neighborhood stakeholders Communities should also be able is all about getting to know better to steward their community’s to evolve and adapt as challenges the people that are close and resilience by supporting them as arise by developing new skills about strengthening communities they craft culturally competent and capacities. To increase their at the local level. The event is resilience action plans that guide capacity, communities should seek organized with the help of a toolkit their ongoing investments at out and interface with outside given to the host in order to the individual, organizational, and sources of help, like government, identify goals and objectives while community levels. foundations, universities, providing a framework for roles corporations, or NGOs. According (ECP, n.d.).

4 For more information, see the NEN website at https://www.empowersf.org/. 5 For more information see the EPC website at https://www.empowersf.org/ecp-communities/.

28 Proceedings from the 2019 UR Europe Conference

Figure 4: Neighborfest host toolkit execution. The activity started with other cities as well. As a follow-up poster. distribution of maps of a neighbor- to the conference, and given the hood to each group, who were then similarities between Bucharest asked to identify vulnerable people and San Francisco in terms of who may need help within the first vulnerabilities to natural disasters, a days after a disaster (Figure 5). pilot project may be prepared to see They were then asked what they how some of the NEN tools can be could do within the first days and used by the Bucharest Community where they could find the resources Foundation and the Romanian needed on the map. Although the Department of Emergency exercise was run in a faster version Situations to build on their mission than is typical, participants were of engaging communities and having left with a feeling of empowerment them prepared for the next big after finishing the activity, showing earthquake. interest in the maps used and ex- cited to apply this approach within their organizations/communities. References Source: NEN. Calin, Alexandra. 2019. “From Shaky Ground Program partners have access to Shaking Hands: Harnessing Civil Society Recommendations and to Enhance Resilience in Bucharest.” to various benefits, such as Conclusions Eurasian Perspectives (World Bank blog). identification of leaders who can November 21. convene local residents, distribution Enabling collective action requires ECP (Empowered Communities Program). of communication materials to connections and trust that can be n.d. “Neighborfest Host Toolkit: Building a Stronger California from the Block Up.” residents in a culturally competent strengthened through collaboration environment, increased connectivity ———. 2016. “The ECP Neighborhood HUB between institutions and the people Program.” https://sfport.com/sites/default/ at the community level that can be they serve, and between academia, files/HUB%20Overview.pdf repurposed downstream for other NGOs, and the private sector. Manea, George. 2017. Effective engagement/outreach activities, Disasters do happen at the local Development and Resilience Building: the a reduction in cost and staff time level, and investing in social capital EU and NATO Perspective Compared, to organize and engage residents, Centre for European Studies Working proves to be essential in times of Papers, Volume IX:3, p. 166. and face time with hard to reach stress and not only. Some of the constituents (e.g., monolingual, World Bank. 2018. “Romania Systematic tools and approaches presented in Country Diagnostic. Background Note: senior, or special needs). the session are easily replicated in Climate and Disaster Management.” June. Map your ResilientVille Figure 5: Worksheet for the Map your Resilientville exercise. exercise The session ended with the presen- tation of a tool through an interac- tive exercise. The tool is called MAP, for “Map your ResilientVille,” and it is used to help participants identify resources, facilities, and physical locations that will support the de- velopment of a resilient action plan in the aftermath of a disaster. This was a fun experience that allowed participants to mix and work in small groups of five to eight people with different roles, from leadership to Source: NEN.

29 Session 5

Challenges and opportunities for assessing flood risks

Session Contributors Session Summary Cosmin Buteica, World Bank This session addressed the risk of floods in the EU and Thierry Davy, World Bank the implementation of Directive 2007/60/EC, the EU Nataša Milić, Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry Floods Directive (FD). It showed the importance of having and Water Management, Serbia both Member States and acceding countries involved in Janusz Zaleski, Odra-Vistula River Basin Flood the preparation of flood risk management plans (FRMPs). Protection Project, Poland It also highlighted the transboundary cooperation Clemens Neuhold, Austrian Federal Ministry that this directive requires, as floods don’t stop at of Sustainability and Tourism country boundaries. Between 1998 and 2009, Europe Sorin Rîndașu, “Romanian Waters” National suffered over 213 major damaging floods, including the Administration catastrophic floods along the Danube and Elbe rivers in summer 2002. During the same period, floods in Europe caused some 1,126 deaths, the displacement of about half a million people, and at least €52 billion in insured economic losses. The increase in the frequency of flood events in Europe, along with associated damages, has pushed Member States to propose EU legislation to improve awareness of flood risk. In 2007 the FD was adopted by all Member States. It aims at reducing and managing the risks that floods pose to human health, the environment, cultural heritage, and economic activity.

We are all in the same boat as one team: Stakeholder engagement with public participation is a key element and so is cross-border cooperation: a constant focus of the Floods Directive.

30 Photo above: technotr. Proceedings from the 2019 UR Europe Conference5

There are three important Background risk of flooding. For such zones, messages for dealing with floods in countries were required to draw Europe: The FD requires Member States up flood risk maps (by 2013) to assess all watercourses and and to establish FRMPs focused ● First, it is urgent to promote coastlines to determine if they are on prevention, protection, and action in the field of floods at risk from flooding; to map the preparedness (by 2015). FRMPs according to flood impacts, and flood extent, as well as assets and are prepared for recurrent cycles especially in a climate change humans at risk, in these areas; and of six years and are accompanied context. to take adequate and coordinated by programs of measures giving a ● Second, the FD was prepared measures to reduce flood risk. precise idea of investment needs. at the request of Member The FD reinforces the rights of Currently, all the Member States States. the public to access this resulting are involved in the preparation information and to have a say in of the second cycle of the FRMP. ● Third, this directive does the planning process. It required They are required to improve not impose very stringent Member States to first carry their FRMPs on the basis of the requirements but is mainly out a preliminary assessment (by European Commission’s remarks, dedicated to raising public 2011) to identify the river basins as needed. awareness. and associated coastal areas at

Case Studies flood hazard and risk maps, and long tradition of flood risk FRMPs and associated programs management—a response to the Mr. Clemens Neuhold, from of measures. Thanks to the presence of several rivers (such the Austrian Federal Ministry implementation of the FD, Poland as the Sava) flowing through this of Sustainability and Tourism, has made progress in raising public country and generating floods on a presented the main requirements awareness and has elaborated frequent basis. precise programs of measures of the FD, the experience of Mr. Sorin Randasu, director of (with associated costs) that would Austria in implementing it, and the Romanian Waters National allow mitigation of flood impacts. the experience of cooperation at Administration, described Danube scale. Ms. Nataša Milic from Serbia’s implementing the FD as part of Professor Zaleski from Poland Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry the Danube regional cooperation. and Water Economy shared He presented the results of an showed how Poland is impacted by lessons on how an acceding Interreg program (supported floods, including the 1997 floods, country implements the Floods financially by the European which were a major historical Directive (i.e., through preliminary Commission) showing that riparian event in Poland. The flood losses flood risk assessments, flood countries of the Danube can were estimated at around €3.5 hazard and risk maps, and FRMPs). work together to address flood billion; 600,000 houses were Although Serbia is an acceding challenges and implement the damaged, 140,000 enterprises country, it is fully engaged in the Floods Directive. This Interreg were affected, and 4,000 critical full implementation of the FD by program also highlights the facilities and institutions were modifying its legal and institutional important technical background impacted. For these reasons framework to transpose the needed to implement the directive Poland was one of the Member FD, implementing its stages, and in its three stages. The FD requires States that took the lead in coordinating its implementation a lot a data that can be provided implementation of the Floods with the Water Framework in different ways—e.g., digital Directive. Poland is currently Directive (2000/60/EC), in terrain models (DTMs), satellite preparing its second cycle of particular for public information images, and drones surveys. These FRMPs. It is working on the three and consultation. This proactivity technological tools should help implementation stages of the FD: by Serbia in the implementation raise awareness of floods among a preliminary flood risk assessment, of the FD is due to the country’s wide public.

Photo above: technotr. 31 Challenges and opportunities for assessing flood risks

Figure 6: Flood hazard and flooding scenarios.

Source: ICPDR (2015).

Challenges risk management plans and river available to the public. The FD basin management plans. Member integrates a climate change The implementation of the FD States should also coordinate their dimension: under the FD, poses some challenges for Member flood risk management practices Member States are supposed States and acceding countries, as in shared (transboundary) river to take into consideration long- presented below. Nevertheless, basins, including with third term developments, including the lessons learned from the first countries6, and in solidarity should climate change, as well as implementation cycle show that not undertake measures that sustainable land use practices Members States and acceding would increase the flood risk in the flood risk management countries have managed to in neighboring countries. For cycle. The FD serves to protect address most of them, at least instance, along the Danube River, EU citizens and the economy partially. even non-Member States are from flood events by increasing implementing the FD and preparing countries’ understanding of risk The Floods Directive can’t be flood hazard and flooding scenarios and promoting investment in seen as a stand-alone piece of (see Figure 6). preventive measures. legislation. It should be carried out in coordination with the Public participation is a key Water Framework Directive, element, as all assessments, notably by coordination of flood maps, and plans are to be made

6 A third country is a country that is not a member of the European Union as well as a country or territory whose citizens do not enjoy the European Union right to free movement, as defined in Art. 2(5) of the Regulation (EU) 2016/399 (Schengen Borders Code).

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Key Solutions and the Water Framework Directive management). The FD promotes Existing Tools clearly demonstrate improved a common understanding of flood collaboration in the preparation risk at EU/international scale. The Floods Directive provides a of the FRMPs and river basin It is important to improve FD framework for the assessment management plans and associated implementation cycle after cycle. and management of flood risk programs of measures. A number Although the three stages of for the EU (and beyond, as for of countries are carrying out the the FD have been well tackled instance Turkey is implementing public consultation processes of by Member States, it is clear the FD). The cyclic (six-year) the two directives in parallel. today that the implementation of implementation of the directive the recommended programs of allows countries to build upon measures is still lagging behind. improvements at each cycle. Recommendations It is important that adequate Significant improvement can be and Conclusion financial and human resources be achieved from one cycle to the dedicated to the implementation next, by refining DTMs, using A flood risk management plan is of the program of measures. Lidar, upgrading data, improving a useful tool in strategic (urban) The examples presented by the public consultation, and reinforcing planning. It is also crucial to define four countries show that it is transboundary cooperation. the interface between regional possible to learn lessons from and local tools (civil protection). other countries. Nevertheless, The three-step approach—entailing In addition, FD implementation these examples also demonstrate a preliminary flood risk assessment leads to a significant increase that one solution doesn’t fit to all including areas of potential in the availability and accuracy contexts. significant risk, preparation of data (DTM, Lidar, satellite of flood hazard and risk maps, images). The FD provides a and preparation of FRMPs— clear, institutionalized frame for References facilitates the public ownership coordination and cooperation with throughout the implementation sectors related to the overall International Commission for the process. The second cycle of Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR). risk cycle (e.g., spatial planning, 2015. Flood Risk Management Plan for the the FD and the third cycle of building regulation, emergency Danube River Basin District.

“Last but not least: data and access to information are key. We can’t manage what we can’t measure and access!”

Tourists try to stay dry in a flooded St Mark’s Square, Venice, Italy. Photo: Jonathan Ford @jonfordphotos 33 Session 6

Private sector and business continuity: Preparing for and managing disasters

Session Contributors Session Summary Zuzana Stanton-Geddes, World Bank Jörg Schleenbecker, FM Global The private sector is an important partner in disaster resilience, playing multiple roles and sharing responsibility Ömer Inan, Istanbul Chamber of Industry, Environment and Energy Department with the public sector for the safety of people and, frequently, for the functioning of critical public services. Dragana Radić Jovanović, IKEA Southeast Europe When disasters strike, they can disrupt services, production, and key functions of businesses, affecting Alina Kasprovschi, Bucharest Community Foundation people, the local economy, and trade patterns. With increasing disaster exposure and interconnectivity of production and services, businesses need to develop forward-looking preparedness and mitigation arrangements. A range of tools is already available, such as assessments, business continuity plans (BCPs), and various risk reduction investments, which can be highly relevant for the public sector as well as for communities and households.

Understanding how the the private sector will act in an emergency, can help people be better prepared.

34 34Photo: Nomadsoul1. Proceedings from the 2019 UR Europe Conference

Background Figure 7: Schematic illustration of the use of a business continuity plan. Source: Lifeline Utilities and Business Continuity Planning in Tuzla Istanbul. Why is private sector

resilience important? Recovery of Start Revovery Time Core Business While housing, infrastructure, and Emergency Objective with BCP agriculture tend to accumulate 100% the largest damages and losses Business Downsizing in a disaster, people and business Time Loss bear most of the recovery costs. Saving Some businesses and livelihoods never recover following a disaster, Revovery of contributing to loss of economic Core Business

Business Function without BCP opportunities, income, and in the Damage worst case unemployment and of Operation, TimeRate mitigation economic downturn. In addition, 0% many public services are fully or before during after Time partially delivered by the private sector, such as electricity or water Source: Lifeline Utilities and Business Continuity Planning in Tuzla Istanbul. supply. When critical services are disrupted, overall economic activity initiatives from the local authorities. management demonstrating how, and people’s lives are impacted. It is likely that this also reflects the following an emergency situation, to Finally, an important aspect to experience among many SMEs in recover or partially restore services consider is the safety of the other European countries. or functions to a pre-defined and acceptable level of operation with workforce and customers. In many How to better prepare? Key a pre-determined timeframe” cases, both the government and steps include (i) understanding (World Bank 2018).7 Some of the communities may rely on the private risk through risk assessments key objectives of a BCP are to sector to provide shelter and relief focusing on different hazards avoid market share loss, reduce goods, and later recovery items. or combinations of hazards, recovery costs, increase safety, specific areas, or specific business Are firms prepared for protect sector/company reputation, functions, as well as interlinkages disasters? enhance communication, and reduce and potential impacts; (ii) continuity impact to consumer/clients and the planning, including the preparation Over the past decades, many firms wider public. Furthermore, a plan of a BCP; and (iii) mitigation have improved their planning, should be practical and concrete, and preparedness through the particularly larger ones. However, containing information about execution of physical investments a recent survey in Italy among critical processes and organizational to reduce disaster risk, as well a selection of small and medium aspects for efficient communication as nonphysical measures such enterprises (SMEs) serviced by and response during and after as improved communication the regional Federcasse Bank an emergency. The plan should technology/systems, drills, revealed that while the majority clearly state which hazards are awareness, and regular testing of responders were aware of most relevant (in case of a multi- and improving of plans. the current and potential risks hazard scenario), which potential of disasters, two-thirds of the What is a business emergencies pose the biggest risk, responders had no BCP that continuity plan? and how these can be mitigated. Use accounted for disaster risks. of a BCP is illustrated in Figure 7. Further, over 70 percent of the A BCP can be seen as a “process responders had little information to develop a practical plan for about existing risk reduction

7 According to World Bank and GFDRR (n.d.), a BCP “identifies potential effects of disruptions to an organization’s critical operations if a disaster were to occur, and specifies effective response actions and quick recovery measures.” https://www.gfdrr.org/sites/default/files/ publication/knowledge-note-japan-earthquake-2-4_0.pdf

Photo: Nomadsoul1. 35 Private sector and business continuity: Preparing for and managing disasters

Case Studies Options for reducing seismic for equipment, flood doors, track risks (and often related fire risks) doors, or flood planks). See Figure Presenters shared experiences include the following: (i) creating an 8 with select measures. from different perspectives, earthquake emergency response including global, industrial zone, plan, (ii) installing sprinkling system Istanbul Tuzla Organized large firm, and city. and fire pumps with seismic Industrial Zone (ITOIZ) bracing for sprinkler system FM Global: The global The session included information and fire pumps; (iii) anchoring based on the experience of the experience critical utilities (electric cabinets, ITOIZ, which has conducted a The session included information boilers), (iv) fixing warehouse lifeline utility assessment and based on the operational rack structures, and (v) installing developed a business continuity experience of FM Global across seismic shutoff valves for gas plan for the zone. These can serve many countries, focusing piping and ignitable liquid piping. as examples of good practice for particularly on floods and Options for reducing flood risks other industrial zones in Istanbul earthquakes. include the following: (i) creating and beyond. For understanding risk, there a flood emergency response plan, The ITOIZ BCP development are global data sets available, (ii) investing in temporary flood included the following steps: (i) particularly for earthquake protection solutions for facilities context analysis; (ii) vulnerability and flood risk (such as through (sandbags, flood logs, perimeter analysis; (iii) risk analysis; (iv) FM Global or Dartmouth Flood barriers) and assets (plastic tarps, risk evaluation; (v) response Observatory, respectively), which raising equipment, relocation), and recovery options; (vi) (iii) enhancing preparedness by can help in the initial scoping of implementation of BCP; and ensuring emergency power, fuel disaster hazard. Understanding the throughout the process (vii) supplies, and flood pumps, (iv) scope of risk for specific facilities/ stakeholder consultations. operations requires detailed investing in resilient designs (going modeling and mapping. Related beyond set building codes to The risk assessment took into to private sector and specific create redundancy and take into account critical lifeline utilities facilities, it is particularly important consideration potential failure), (natural gas, electricity, road to understand the potential extent and (v) investing in permanent transportation, process water, of physical damage and estimated solutions (such as floodwalls, curbs wastewater, storm sewer, and ICT), operational impact. at openings, elevated structured a range of sectors (automotive,

Figure 8: Various options for temporary and permanent flood risk reduction.

Evaluate Flood Going Beyond Resilient Emergency Fuel Supplies Flood Pump Risk Building Codes Design Power

Flood Curb at Elevate Key Sandbag Use Flood Install Perimeter Wall Openings Equipment Openings Logs Barrier

Source: Adapted from FM Global.

36 Proceedings from the 2019 UR Europe Conference steel, electronic, pharmaceutical, and 50 years and high consequences IKEA others), and hazards (particularly due to failure of ICT systems. hail, snow, floods, earthquake, The session included information The BCP was developed to and landslide). Both individual and based on the risk and compliance facilitate quick response to an cascading effects were analyzed. practice of IKEA in southeastern emergency situation so as to Beyond likelihood and level of hazard, Europe, whose five countries keep the outage of lifeline utilities 2 the risk assessment considered contain 1 million km , 75 million within an acceptable duration duration and scale of outage. people, and 30 million households. to ensure (or enhance) business Assessment of flood hazard also continuity for the zone as a whole. Risk is perceived both in terms took into account effects of climate The BCP also includes a process by of awareness and opportunity; change. Various consequences were which it is reviewed and updated and it is considered as part of established based on the level of after an emergency based on the whole business cycle. IKEA impact (Table 1). lessons learned. As part of the risk and compliance covers the The assessment identified key BCP development, the following following areas: (i) fire prevention risks, including (among others) (i) a aspects were considered: (i) levels and response; (ii) occupational strong earthquake with a return of acceptable risks (recovery time health and safety management; period of 475 years and high to and acceptable rate of operations); (iii) security management; (iv) crisis very high consequences, directly (ii) organizational aspects in an management; (v) administration or indirectly (via landslides), leading emergency (communication support, audit, and control; (vi) to (cascading) failure of various tree, roles and responsibilities, insurance; (vii) risk management; utilities (electricity, communication, activation protocol with triggers); (viii) ISDP management; and road transport, process water, (iii) guidance (list of measures (ix) product requirement and natural gas); (ii) intense rainfall and prioritization tool, see Figure compliance. For this, a range of with an estimated return 9) during an emergency; and (iv) tools is used, including (i) code of period of 20–50 years and high implementation tasks (e.g., regular conduct, (ii) group risk manual; (iii) consequences due to failure of the updates and reviews, monitoring, security check; (iv) quality check; road transport system; and (iii) an training, feedback collection, and (v) incident reporting system (see earthquake with a return period of evaluation, etc.). Figure 10; (vi) CASY system; (vii)

Table 1: Types of consequences based on impact of event affecting ITOIZ.

Impact Business continuity Repair Environmental Reputation level Safety cost cost impact loss

Businesses are going bankrupt, ITOIZ Inability to pay for Severe impact on the Severe loss of reputation, 5 Several management unable extremely high repair environment outside businesses consider moving (very high) casualties to continue managing cost ITOIZ out of ITOIZ ITOIZ

Moderate impact on Significant loss of 4 Significant loss of Repair cost exceeded Casualty the environment within reputation, position of ITOIZ (high) productivity yearly budget ITOIZ management at stake Moderate impact on Slight loss of reputation, 3 Heavy Moderate loss of Repair cost exceed the environment within complaints of industries (fairly high) injuries productivity yearly budget ITOIZ from within ITOIZ Moderate loss of reputation, Diversion of Part of expected Slight impact on the 2 Minor notices on media and management from exceptional maintenance nearby surroundings (medium) injuries complaints of industries productive tasks and repair operations within ITOIZ from outside ITOIZ Negligible impact on the Only 1 Part of routine nearby surroundings material Negligible Negligible reputation loss (low) maintenance of the affected lifeline damage utilities within ITOIZ

Source: Lifeline Utilities and Business Continuity Planning in Tuzla Istanbul.

37 Private sector and business continuity: Preparing for and managing disasters

Figure 9: Prioritization tool as part of BCP.

Endangered Priority Completely Parity (might fall on and time damaged available short notice) Lifeline utility Assets objective [enter emergency location(s) id#] Roads needed for access to road 0 3 hours other emergency locations associated objects and systems main cable Electricity transformer 1 8 hours associated objects and systems main fibre/cable lines ICT 1 8 hours associated objects and systems pipeline network 16 Process water 2 associated objects and systems hours gas pipeline Natural gas 3 1 day associated objects and systems road 1 Roads 3 associated objects and systems day rainwater sewer system 2 Storm sewer 4 associated objects and systems days main sewer Waste water 5 1 week associated objects and systems n Highly critical objects n Medium critical objects n Low critical objects n Is not expected to occur Source: Lifeline Utilities and Business Continuity Planning in Tuzla Istanbul crisis management manuals; (viii) Private sector collaboration Lidl in a grant-making program trust line; and (ix) risk management with nongovernmental with the objective to inform and process. sector in Bucharest educate the city’s residents about disaster risks and preparedness. As part of the established risk The session presented information The foundation, through its management practice, risk based on the experience of the networks and cooperation with assessments are conducted with Bucharest Community Foundation, NGOs, leverages and supports risk response options (accept, an umbrella nongovernmental initiatives at the local level. For avoid, transfer, and mitigate). organization (NGO), which raises example, as part of the Bucharest Impact assessment also considers funds from local business and Ready program, 10 search and the impact on people, impact on individual donors to fund projects rescue dogs have been trained and business, and external impacts. in Bucharest and Ilfov, in Romania. are in the process of certification. The intensity of disaster also Late in 2019, two of them were takes into account the urgency Bucharest is one of Europe’s cities part of Romania’s relief efforts of decision, and the possibility to most vulnerable to earthquake. after the Albanian earthquake. continue normal business with It is estimated that one in four The general population is being systems and routines in place. people in Bucharest could be trained in first aid, a practice that Crisis communication helps to (i) impacted by a major event. Many is infrequent in Romania. And in the define an overall communication public assets, including hospitals, most vulnerable part of Bucharest, approach; (ii) map internal and schools, and kindergartens, are its historical center, inhabitants external stakeholders; (iii) define vulnerable to seismic impact. are being informed about and a spokesperson; and (iv) draft a Since 2019, Bucharest Community trained in preparing for an holding statement. Foundation has partnered with upcoming disaster. The foundation Endava, Enel, IKEA, ING Bank, and provides monitoring of funds used

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Figure 10: General incidence response approach. Preparing a BCP is crucial for better preparedness. Private Incident/ companies should formulate event their BCPs to reflect the results or outcomes they expect from Emergency Plans • save key assets implementation, rather than include specific measures to counter specific disasters. They should identify key services, and Crisis Management Working Method • limit the negative impact examine how long the service will be disrupted and how they Business Continuity Plans • quickly restore oprations can shorten the disruption time (GFDRR and World Bank n.d.). As part of this process, key success ingredients include risk assessment; stakeholder time consultations; agreement on priorities, actions, and Source: IKEA. responsibilities; and drills and continuous awareness related to the BCP to ensure successful and communication of impacts, resilience directly contributes implementation in case of a including visibility to the partners to public sector resilience, as disaster. For interconnected supporting the program. well as household/individual level resilience, and vice versa, since disasters, another ingredient is The program also supports the resilience is a shared responsibility cross-departmental or cross- creation of a support network in among the various sectors and sectoral coordination. case of an earthquake. Through stakeholders. regular meetings and calls for proposals, the foundation supports There is a need to raise awareness Further Resources knowledge transfer and sharing of this issue. This can be done by AHA Centre, JICA (Japan International of experience in BCP and risk the government—for example, by Cooperation Agency), OYO International management between the private making information or case studies Corporation, Mitsubishi Research Institute, sector partners as well as the available, championing firms within Inc., and CTI Engineering International NGOs engaged with the foundation. the private sector sharing their Co., Ltd. 2015. “Planning Guide for Area experience, or collaborating with Business Continuity: Area BCM Toolkits. For the private sector actors, Version 2.” the NGO sector. this program has also created an GFDRR (Global Facility for Disaster opportunity to better understand Understanding the scale and Reduction and Recovery) and World the needs and priorities of their potential impact of hazard can Bank. n.d. “Knowledge Note 2-4. Cluster customer base, which can in return 2. Nonstructural Measures: Business be complex. However, there are Continuity Plan.” https://www.gfdrr.org/ inform their own process in ensuring tools, data, and methods available sites/default/files/publication/knowledge- personnel safety and business to companies to assess and better note-japan-earthquake-2-4_0.pdf continuity planning in general. manage the risks they are facing. UNIDSR (United Nations Office for Disaster In doing so, firms need to shift Risk Reduction). 2013. “Private Sector Strengths Applied: Good Practices in from a “disaster-based“ to a Disaster Risk Reduction from Japan.” Recommendations “consequence-based” perspective UNDP (United Nations Development and Conclusion in strategy development. For Programme). 2013. “Small Businesses: smaller companies, starting with Impact of Disasters and Building Resilience.” There are many benefits in preparing for a small disaster can UNDP, New York. May. enhancing private sector be a first step before planning for resilience. Better private sector more complex ones.

39 Session 7 Article title

Determining disaster and climate impacts on the poorest and most vulnerable, and optimizing solutions for resilience

Session Contributors Session Summary Yann Kerblat, World Bank Brian Walsh, World Bank Disasters affect not only households’ assets but also their incomes and their consumption. Disaster effects can persist Mihaela Toader, Romania Ministry of European long after the physical hazards recede, forcing households Funds to make difficult trade-offs between food, education, and Jun Rentschler, World Bank health care expenditures on the one hand, and replacement Manuela Sofia Stănculescu, Research or reconstruction of assets on the other. Effects of Institute for Quality of Life, Romania National severe or successive disasters can be seen in reduced Institute for Economic Research educational attainment, stunting, transient and even chronic Anne Zimmer, Climate Analytics poverty, and depressed macroeconomic growth. These multidimensional impacts depend not only on the physical attributes of a given disaster, but also on socioeconomic characteristics of affected populations. For example, wealthy households generally have access to a wide variety of coping mechanisms, which are not necessarily accessible for poor households. Critically, such differences affect not only the severity of a shock’s impact on household consumption and welfare, but also the duration of recovery. >

“If we measure the wrong thing, we will do the wrong thing.“ (J. Stieglitz)

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> How can recovery be to lose a lot during disasters? households are likely to recover accelerated, when disasters And what are the hidden costs on their own, and which ones cannot be fully prevented? How that emerge when recovery is might require significant external can decision makers effectively delayed? This session explored assistance to facilitate their identify and support population these questions and explained recovery. groups who had very little to begin how socioeconomic characteristics with, as well as those who tend can help predict in advance which

Case Studies Figure 11: “Unbreakable” is a roadmap developed by the World Bank and Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) to help countries better Upcoming investment adapt to climate change, and boost the resilience and prosperity of their most vulnerable citizens. By equipping the most vulnerable with the means to cope, priorities and targeting rebuild, and rebound, decision makers can increase the chance for millions to strategy of Romania’s stay out of extreme poverty. Ministry of European Funds with regard to disaster resilience and social inclusion In her opening remarks, Director General Mihaela Toader (Ministry of European Funds) provided an overview of the Government of Romania’s upcoming potential priority investments for the 2021–27 programming period for Source: Hallegatte et al. (2017). EU funds with regard to disaster risk management (DRM) and damaged or destroyed by a shock. poor (Figure 11). This research environmental protection. She Indirect costs—including not only presents a more comprehensive particularly highlighted the impact lost productivity and services, but quantification of disaster costs, of EU funds on the maintenance also human capital losses—are not beyond direct damages; for and modernization of Romania’s incorporated into cost-benefit the purposes of this session, infrastructure and services related analyses in any systematic fashion. the distribution of disaster to emergency management and Yet better access to relevant data costs among the population of risk prevention, as well as the and research methods doesn’t Romania was examined. This importance of using accurate, just allow estimates of what is lost new approach is also necessary community-centered indicators in terms of assets, but can also because challenges—including in enhancing social inclusion and determine who is most likely to be rapid urbanization, inequality, and disaster resilience interventions. affected and how severe socio- climate change—threaten to drive economic impact can be as a result asset exposure and vulnerability Building the resilience of of a given disaster event, and how higher, and to overwhelm existing the poor in the face of to better formulate inclusive and DRM solutions. disasters and applying well-targeted interventions. The research has shown that the Unbreakable model to For example, the World Bank indirect costs can far exceed Romania Unbreakable report (Hallegatte direct damages, particularly In the conventional practice of et al. 2017) uses a new method when affected households have DRM, disasters are measured for quantifying disaster damages, low socioeconomic resilience, by direct damages, or the while considering the unequal meaning they lack means to cope replacement cost of assets burden of disasters on the with and recover from shocks. In

41 Determining disaster and climate impacts on the poorest and most vulnerable, and optimizing solutions for resilience

Figure 12: The map shows that if a major earthquake were to strike in and of DRM, and it can help southeastern Romania, which includes Bucharest, the surrounding regions prioritize interventions in a way would take several times longer to recover and rebuild their assets than the that integrates DRM into wider capital city. development agendas. Improving socioeconomic resilience across Romania: How to best target interventions? In Romania, from a poverty alleviation perspective, marginalized areas—in both urban and rural areas —are defined and empirically identified as census sectors that experience simultaneous severe deprivation in three areas: human capital, employment, and housing conditions. The populations living in these areas are characterized by a deficit of human capital, tend <1 year >3 years to generate revenue from the Average recovery time from major earthquake informal sector (combined with social transfers and agriculture in rural areas), and often live in Source: Walsh et al. 2020 (forthcoming) (World Bank). precarious dwellings even by the usual low standard for rural particular, recovery is often most whose welfare and long-term housing. Such areas are therefore difficult for poor and near-poor prospects have always been territorial concentrations of households, with the result that critically vulnerable to exogenous many become trapped deeper in shocks. Both poverty eradication There are significant differences poverty, even years after public and shared prosperity will require between marginalized areas recovery efforts have concluded. more equitable DRM perspectives that are urban (ghettos, This situation can have permanent and solutions. slums, mahalas, social housing impacts on the welfare and concentrations, and historical This methodology has been long-term prospects of these areas) and (as shown in Figure 13) applied in several countries to households, in addition to the those that are rural. While urban help develop DRM strategies significant macroeconomic costs marginalized areas often localized that incorporate socioeconomic of chronic poverty. For example, centrally (as shown in Figure 14), resilience, or the relative in Romania, the model confirmed rural marginalized areas are prone capacities of communities, that rural areas in the eastern to geographic isolation and are economies, and other networks regions would take the longest usually located at the outskirts of to recover from shocks. Informed to reconstruct 25 percent of well-connected villages. In terms by a more inclusive accounting of their assets in the aftermath of a of percentage of population, disaster costs, this methodology moderate earthquake event, even 6.2 percent of Romania’s rural identifies new justifications to though the most valuable losses population and 3.2 percent invest in disaster risk reduction, would be in the capital (Figure 12). of its urban population live in and new policy tools with which marginalized areas (estimates The risks posed by disasters are to do so. In this way, resilience based on the 2011 Population and rising most acutely for the poor leads to greater equity even as Dwelling Census). and other marginalized groups, it reduces the costs of disasters

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Figure 13: Distribution of rural marginalized areas across Romania, 2011.

County limit ● County capital European road ● Village with marginalized communities in <20 percent of inhabitants are Roma ● Village with marginalized communities in >20 percent of inhabitants are Roma Data source: NIS, Population and Housing Census 2011. Cartography: ESRI, ArcGIS 10.1. Source: Sandu et al. 2016. Note: World Bank estimations were based on data from the 2011 Population and Housing Census. The analysis was carried out at the census sector level for all rural administrative units. Sectors with fewer than 50 inhabitants were not included in the analysis.

The main targeting tools utilized rural marginalized areas spread the lack of municipal geographical for the analysis of marginalized across all counties and regions, references, which sometimes areas in Romania are The concentrating in the North-East prevents the data from shaping Atlas of Urban Marginalized region. Most rural marginalization interventions in such target areas. Communities in Romania (Anton areas are small (under 500 For both rural and urban areas, et al. 2014) and The Atlas of inhabitants) and have an ethnic the empirical evidence generated Rural Marginalized Areas and of dimension, as Roma people are in both atlases confirmed that Local Human Development in statistically overrepresented marginalized communities Romania (Sandu et al. 2016).8 and concentrated in segregated disproportionately face high These tools demonstrate that in communities. The main limitation exposure to hazards and have Romania both the urban and the of the existing targeting tools is

8 In 2012, the Government of Romania and the World Bank partnered to facilitate the preparation and implementation of projects funded by the European Union. This agreement included these two atlas initiatives, which were framed within a wider project of designing strategies for the integration of poor areas and disadvantaged communities across Romania.

43 Determining disaster and climate impacts on the poorest and most vulnerable, and optimizing solutions for resilience

Figure 14: City maps with marginalized communities reported by the local authorities: Medgidia town example.

Legend City limit n Ghetto-type areas with blocks of flats n Ghetto-type areas in former industrial colonies n Slum-type areas with houses (number) Estimated n Slum-type areas with improvised shelters number of inhabitants n Areas with modernized social housing in the area. n Historical (central) neighborhoods with social housing and/or buildings abusively occupied Cartography: ESRI, n Mixed areas ArcGIS 10.1.

Next to marginalized communities, the local name and the estimated number of imhabitants are shown, only if and as declared by the local authorities. Source: Anton et al. 2014. access to very limited resources Socioeconomic impacts of the proportion of the global to cope with and recover from climate-related extreme population exposed to extreme such shocks (both at the household events: How to assess short events each year compared to the and community levels). Poverty pre-industrial era. In light of this, and long-term impacts on reduction efforts in Romania the Potsdam Institute for Climate could thus generate significant households? and Climate Analytics (PICC) is disaster risk reduction dividends The growing socio-economic spearheading analytical efforts to if interventions prioritize the impacts of climate-related better grasp the socioeconomic targeting of marginalized areas in extreme events at a household impacts of climate-related both urban and rural zones. level can also be seen in other extreme events, and showcased regions, given that climate change preliminary results during the poses a pervasive risk globally. session from ongoing research The current level of global projects: the Inter-Sectoral warming has already nearly tripled Impact Model Intercomparison

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Figure 15: Linking biophysical risks with socioeconomic impact at household level.

Challenges on linking extreme events exposure to household impacts

Vulnerability

Short-run impacts on Economic Exposure affecetd households wellbeing

Education Coping ➜ Hosuehold Long-run impacts on coping behaviour affecetd households Health in response to shock

Source: SLICE Consortium.

Project (ISIMIP) with the their children out of school. In the risks, decision makers can rethink associated ISIpedia, and the project, the consortium analyzed the ways we measure these Short- and Long-Term Impacts of the different impact channels on shocks so they can better track Climate Extremes (SLICE) project. economic well-being, education, and identify who could be the most and health, as well as the links impacted, and why. While the ISIMIP project with exposure, vulnerability, and synthesizes the scientific coping, using household data. knowledge from a multitude Based on these findings, policy References of climate impact models for implications were formulated different sectors, the ISIpedia demonstrating how socioeconomic Anton, Simona, Bryan Koo, Titus-Cristian project makes this synthesized Man, Sandu Ciprian Moldovan, Manuela impacts of extreme events in knowledge accessible to scientific Sofia Stanculescu, and Robertus A. the most vulnerable households Swinkels. 2014. Elaboration of Integration and nonscientific stakeholders. can be reduced through poverty Strategies for Urban Marginalized It is currently building up an Communities: The Atlas of Urban reduction interventions. open climate-impacts database, Marginalized Communities in Romania. Washington, DC: World Bank. including country-level risk profiles providing information on how Hallegatte, Stephane, Adrien Vogt- Recommendations Schilb, Mook Bangalore, and Julie the country is projected to be Rozenberg. 2017. Unbreakable: Building affected by climate-related risks and Conclusion the Resilience of the Poor in the Face of such as floods and droughts for Natural Disasters. Climate Change and All speakers in this session Development Series. Washington, DC: different levels of temperature examined the intricate linkages World Bank. increases in the future. between disaster and climate risk Sandu, Dumitru D., Bogdan Corad, Cătălina and manifestations of chronic Iamandi-Cioinaru, Titus-Cristian Man, The SLICE project analyzes the Monica Marin, Ciprian Moldovan, Georgiana socioeconomic short- and long- poverty, and put forward different Neculau, Emil Daniel Tesliuc, Vlad Alexandru term impacts of climate extremes, examples that showed how Grigoras, and Manuela Sofia Stanculescu. especially impacts on well-being, poverty alleviation and disaster risk 2016. The Atlas of Marginalized Rural Areas and of Local Human Development in health, and education (Figure 15). reduction are intrinsically linked Romania. Washington, DC: World Bank. and can generate noteworthy Based on household-level data Walsh, Brian; Hallegatte, Stephane; for Nigeria, it can be seen that benefits in the long term. Today, and Kerblat, Yann. 2020 (forthcoming). households affected by flooding with access to a variety of tools, Socioeconomic resilience to disasters in have partly responded to the data sets, best practices, and other Romania. Washington, DC.: World Bank Group. shock by selling assets, reducing innovations to better understand, food consumption, or even taking identify, and communicate disaster

45 Session 8

Scaling up safer and higher-quality learning environment

Session Contributors Session Summary Carina Fonseca Ferreira, World Bank Provision of safer schools should not be a matter of stand- Radu Vacareanu, Technical University of Civil Engineering of Bucharest, Romania alone policy, for two reasons. First, safety is required but not sufficient to ensure a good learning environment. António Sousa Gago, Instituto Superior Tecnico, Portugal Second, the implementation of safety as a stand-alone policy is wrongly perceived by beneficiary communities as Fernando Ramirez Cortes, World Bank the benefit is often not visible for the school community. Alina Sava, World Bank, Romania The implementation of the actions to improve the safety of school infrastructure should be integrated into a broader school infrastructure program; or it should address the improvement of functional conditions where a broader program does not exist. This session brought together global experience in improving the safety of school infrastructure to better withstand natural disasters and climate change, in articulation with upgrades on functional conditions. It promoted a debate on key factors to scale up actions on the ground and maximize benefits for children.

“Nowhere else in the world is a center of population so exposed to earthquakes originating repeatedly from the same source.” —Charles Richter, 15 March 1977, Letter to the Government of Romania.

New or renovated schools are badly needed to replace ones built in the 1950s or earlier that have fallen into disrepair. Georgia. 46 Photo: Givi Pirtskhalava/World Bank. Proceedings from the 2019 UR Europe Conference

Background the Code for Safety and Actions condition and performance of for Building and Bridge Structures, school facilities, especially in rural Every year, around 2,500 children RSAEEP (decree-law no. 235, 1983), areas, has contributed to unequal on average could die due to the and the Code for Reinforced and education outcomes in Romania. In earthquake-induced collapse of Prestressed Concrete Structures, rural areas, more than 25 percent school buildings if no measures are REBAP (decree-law no. 349-c, of the population ages 18–24 are taken to reduce the vulnerability of 1983) (Proença and Gago 2011). early school leavers, as compared existing infrastructure.9 Because of Vulnerability studies conducted to 6 percent in urban areas and 10 earthquakes and hurricanes, 35,000 by local technical institutions in percent on average across the EU. classrooms could be lost every year, Portugal concluded that secondary Local seismologists and specialists and around 800,000 children might schools built prior to 1983 were in earthquake engineering identified need to attend school in temporary vulnerable to earthquakes. Parque areas in Romania that are highly classrooms. The main challenge Escolar implemented works to exposed to damaging earthquakes, in addressing this problem is its preserve and modernize Portugal’s including Bucharest. In Bucharest scale. Initial estimates from the school building heritage by upgrading alone, more than 25 percent World Bank’s Global Program for its architectural and functional of the existing 436 buildings Safer Schools indicate that around conditions while improving the serving 259,000 students require 1.1 million school buildings around seismic performance of buildings intervention, including some high- the world require intervention to in earthquake-prone areas. The seismic-risk buildings. improve both their performance seismic retrofitting component of The real dimension of the problem in a hazard event and their the intervention was tested in the across the country is largely functionality. pilot phase of the modernization unknown, since data still need to program and is being progressively be processed and analyzed, but adopted in subsequent phases, local specialists estimate that Case Studies particularly in schools in Lisbon, thousands of school buildings Tagus Valley, Alentejo, and Algarve, across Romania might require In Portugal, a modernization which have the highest seismicity in functional improvements (energy program has been implemented the Portugal mainland. by Parque Escolar to improve efficiency, water and sanitation the seismic performance and In Romania, there are more conditions, better and more functionality of public secondary than 25,000 school buildings, 40 inclusive learning environments) schools built prior to 1983 in the percent of which are over 50 and seismic retrofitting. The most earthquake- prone areas in the years old. More than 25 percent strategy for modernizing education country (Figure 16). Parque Escolar of schools lack adequate heating infrastructure in Romania aims to (i) is a state-owned company that was systems and rely on fireplaces as develop transparent and evidence- in charge of the implementation of the main heating source. Only 30 based decision-making processes, intervention works in more than 330 percent of schools have mobility (ii) invest in safe and flexible schools in Portugal. The portfolio of access ramps and only 15 percent learning environments that facilitate public secondary schools in Portugal have handicap-accessible toilets. innovation in teaching and learning, comprises around 400 schools. Of Rural schools tend to be in poorer (iii) establish a coherent framework these, 23 percent were built in the condition than urban schools. For for funding and regulation related early 1960s, just before or shortly instance, 60 percent of primary to education infrastructure, and after the publication of the Code for or secondary rural schools lack (iv) provide equity, by giving access Building Safety against Earthquakes, libraries, and 72 percent do not to the same quality of learning RSCCS (decree no. 41658, 1958); have laboratories. The situation environment in both urban and rural 46 percent were built in the is better in urban areas, where areas and by supporting inclusion for 1980s, with a significant proportion 20 percent of schools do not students with special needs. predating 1983, when two have a library and 30 percent do important codes came into force, not have laboratories. The poor

9 World Bank Global Program for Safer Schools, “Global Library of School Infrastructure (GLOSI),” https://gpss.worldbank.org/en/glosi.

New or renovated schools are badly needed to replace ones built in the 1950s or earlier that have fallen into disrepair. Georgia. Photo: Givi Pirtskhalava/World Bank. 47 Scaling up safer and higher-quality learning environments

Challenges such thing as “zero risk,” and stand-alone policy for two main elements (that is, buildings, reasons. First, safety is required ● Nothing happens without their contents, and people) but not sufficient to ensure the will of the government. exposed to natural hazards a good learning environment. The decision to invest can never be absolutely safe Second, the implementation and intervene in school in any given place or time. of safety as a stand-alone infrastructure at large scale Disaster risk management policy is wrongly perceived by presents both technical therefore focuses on reducing beneficiary communities as the and political challenges. All the probability of adverse benefit is often not immediately agencies involved need to gain consequences, which means understood by the community. a common understanding of societies will always have to deal the intervention requirements with some level of risk. On the ● Low institutional capacity and potential solutions, and other hand, risk encompasses is an additional burden for an informed dialogue among not only physical consequences governments trying to move decision makers needs to be but also indirect impacts toward a risk reduction ensured. Leading this process from the cumulative effect of approach and to carry out should be the government’s alterations to the children’s medium- and long-term entity in charge of managing physical, environmental, social, planning. Managing a large school infrastructure, and emotional well-being. The stock of school infrastructure supported by relevant agencies. concept of physical safety is complex and requires is nuanced, and the level of sufficient institutional capacity. ● School infrastructure safety “acceptable risk” (that is, the is not a black and white issue. Improving the quality of socially accepted level of risk Perhaps the only common existing infrastructure is usually remaining once measures have global understanding about expensive and disruptive of been taken to reduce risk) tends safer schools is that no children education services. However, it to vary across countries and should die or be harmed in the is important to integrate and communities. event of a natural disaster as optimize the need to improve the result of a failure of school ● Safety is just one of the existing infrastructure (safety infrastructure. This aspiration conditions a good learning and functional aspects) with varies among countries in the environment should meet. the demand for new classrooms realm of public policy, however. Provision of safer schools through medium- and long- On one hand, there is no should not be a matter of term planning.

Figure 16: Example of school made of load bearing masonry walls with reinforced concrete floors.

Source: António Sousa Gago.

48 Proceedings from the 2019 UR Europe Conference

Figure 17: Roadmap for Safer and Resilient Schools.

DIAGNOSIS ANALYSIS PLANNING 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

SCHOOL SCHOOL CONSTRUCTION FINANCING RISK AND INTERVENTION INVESTMENT IMPLEMENTATION INFRASTRUCTURE INFRASTRUCTURE ENVIRONMENT ENVIRONMENT RESILIENCE STRATEGY PLAN STRATEGY BASELINE POLICY ASSESSMENT Source: World Bank’s Global Program for Safer Schools.

● Reducing the vulnerability a process. Its eight steps follow a school infrastructure program; or of a large stock of school logical sequence, from diagnosis to it should address the improvement facilities is a medium- to analysis to planning at scale, with of functional conditions where a long-term effort. Improving each step addressing the different broader program does not exist. the performance of thousands factors contributing to disaster Understanding disaster risk in of school buildings is, in itself, risk. The RSRS methodology school infrastructure typically an enormous task in terms focuses on large school portfolios involves at least three levels of resources, planning, and and on addressing the issue of of complexity: multidimensional implementation. Competing scale. As a result, the roadmap risk factors, multi-stakeholder needs, like functional has primarily been implemented at environments, and issues relating improvements or new national scale, covering thousands to scale. In this context, the classrooms, can make the of school facilities and buildings. decision-making process requires challenge for governments Recently, though, implementations a structured dialogue through even more difficult, and in the at the municipal level have shown which stakeholders can achieve many years it may take to promising results. Although some consensus around the roots of the complete these interventions, adjustments are required at this problem, attain an understanding some schoolchildren will remain scale, the methodology provides of the potential consequences of at risk. Maximizing the safety a plan that municipalities can use future hazard events, and identify benefits and cost efficiency to identify and prioritize school opportunities to reduce risk. of the investments must infrastructure interventions Creating this enabling environment therefore be a priority of a and investments, since local allows policy makers to make more informed decisions about safer school program. governments are usually directly involved in managing them. investments and policy reforms that will lead to safer, resilient, and Solutions high-quality learning environments Recommendations at scale. The Roadmap for Safer and and Conclusion Resilient Schools (RSRS) provides a methodological framework that can The quality of education References be adapted to a local context and infrastructure directly affects Proença, Jorge Miguel, and António Sousa tailored to the specific needs and students’ learning. The Gago. 2011. Reforço Sísmico de Edifícios capacity of the government (Figure implementation of investments Escolares / Seismic Strengthening of School 17).10 The RSRS is not intended to on school infrastructure resilience Buildings. Portuguese-English bilingual be prescriptive; it is a guide through should be integrated into a broader edition. Lisbon: Parque Escolar, EPE.

10 For more information see World Bank Global Program for Safer Schools, “The RSRS at a Glance,” https://gpss.worldbank.org/en/roadmaps/ rsrs-glance.

49 Session 9

Building urban resilience: Integrating climate and disaster risks into urban development

Session Contributors Session Summary Carli Bunding-Venter, World Bank In cities around the world, rapid urbanization and climate George Manea, Department for Emergency Situations, Romania change are increasing disaster and climate change risks, and new risks are emerging due to technological, Carlos Castro, City of Lisbon, Portugal biological, and other exogenous threats. For example, George Dimarelos, Transport Consultant and globally, by 2030 climate change and natural disasters Project Manager may cost cities worldwide $314 billion annually and push 77 million urban residents into poverty. However, it is possible to guide development into safer areas, ensure resilience of buildings and critical infrastructure, strengthen response functions, and improve governance and institutional capacity. Access to information about which assets and geographical areas are at highest risk from different threats is key to prioritizing actions that have the greatest potential to reduce risk; it can also lead to cost savings and increased efficiency in public spending. There is a range of innovative spatial planning tools and approaches available to cities to improve their decision making and planning, and many cities are already taking critical steps forwardto build their resilience.

50 Twilight over Thessaloniki, Greece. Photo: Gfed. Proceedings from the 2019 UR Europe Conference

This session featured examples cannot be ignored. Failing to invest Romania from across the European region in making cities more resilient Romania faces one of the highest to demonstrate recent experience to natural disasters, shocks, and risks of earthquake among and insights into how city stresses will result in significant European Union countries. planners and decision makers are human and economic damages— Thousands of lives have been lost with the urban poor bearing the approaching resilience, including and tens of thousands of buildings brunt of losses. If high climate their application of spatial data damaged in earthquakes over impact coincides with inequitable and technologies. The session also the last 200 years. More than access to basic infrastructure and highlighted some of the challenges 75 percent of the population, services, natural disasters will force elected representatives and city including 65 percent of the urban tens of millions of urban dwellers officials have faced and how these population, is in areas with high into extreme poverty and may cost have been overcome. earthquake hazard. Moreover, 45 cities worldwide $314 billion each percent of all critical transport, year by 2030, up from around $250 energy, water, and communication billion today (World Bank 2016). Background services, as well as 70–80 percent of the country’s gross domestic There is no single definition of product (GDP), are in seismic zones. urban resilience, but the two most Case Studies The effects of climate change widely used are from the World have also substantially increased Three case studies were Bank and the 100 Resilient Cities in recent decades, bringing more presented: (i) a national initiative. The World Bank defines frequent landslides, wildfires, government perspective from it as “the ability of a system, entity, droughts, floods, and extreme Romania, with a specific focus on community, or person to adapt to weather events. In 2006, for coordination and communication a variety of changing conditions example, extreme floods caused in disaster preparedness and and to withstand shocks while economic damage equivalent to response across different spheres still maintaining its essential 1 percent of GDP. functions” (World Bank 2016). and levels of government; (ii) The 100 Resilient Cities initiative an account of Thessaloniki Romania has been working to calls it “the capacity of individuals, (Greece), demonstrating how effectively prepare for, and communities, institutions, a deep understanding of the respond to, natural disasters and businesses, and systems within a unique resilience challenges in a climate change by strengthening city to survive, adapt, and grow locality can stimulate supporting institutions and legislation. The no matter what kind of chronic investments at city level, in effort is being led by the General stresses and acute shock they this case a particular focus on Inspectorate for Emergency experience (100 Resilient Cities).” a waterfront development; Situations within the Ministry and (iii) an example from Lisbon of Internal Affairs. The General Urban resilience seems most often (Portugal), showing how an Inspectorate has three main tasks: raised in the context of population in-depth understanding of the (i) coordinate the implementation growth and human migration, but landscape and climatic conditions, of emergency management even in countries across Europe— coupled with a multi-departmental actions and measures in the some not experiencing very high approach to prevention of national territory; (ii) coordinate urbanization pressures and others disasters and rapid response, all organizations involved in the even seeing a decline in population results in strengthened resilience management of emergencies numbers—resilience investments of a city and its residents. according to international

“The 19th century was a century of empires. The 20th century was a century of nation states. The 21st century will be a century of cities.” —Wellington E. Webb, former Mayor of Denver

Twilight over Thessaloniki, Greece. Photo: Gfed. 51 Building urban resilience: Integrating climate and disaster risks into urban development regulations; and (iii) communicate information and public campaigns, an important metropolitan region the decisions made by the table top and field exercises, for Greece, with an active port and government or by the National trainings, as well as the use of a respected university in addition Committee (through its Technical technology and digital applications, to a robust tourist industry. Secretariat) to the authorities of all of these are essential tools The city, however, has also been the central public administration that bring added value in terms affected by the economic and in order to secure coordinated of risk perception among the political crises that have rocked management of emergencies. population, said George Manea Greece in recent years. Growing The country has been using from the Romanian Department unemployment from a shrinking various tools to engage local for Emergency Situations. manufacturing sector and a lack communities to prepare for Thessaloniki, Greece of opportunities for young people emergency situations, working have increased social needs, while with local authorities and using Thessaloniki has a rich history resources to provide services technology and social media as a major hub of business and have decreased. Tensions have to share information. Disaster culture, from the Roman period led to the rise of extremism, preparedness, response, and to the Byzantine Empire. In its riots, and civil unrest, and broken coordination are a crucial piece 2,300 years of history, the city down relations between residents of the larger resilience picture in has been part of the Hellenistic, and public authorities. With new densely populated urban areas. Roman, Byzantine, and Ottoman empires. It has a significant projects to upgrade infrastructure, Civil preparedness is required in Jewish history and experienced officials see an opportunity to order to increase the local, regional significant population shifts in the build trust and engagement with and national resilience for natural last century. The city’s cultural community members by involving catastrophes and/or man-made and creative sector and its them in planning processes. They disasters. Strategic approaches growing tourism draw from this are also using this approach and policy development, multicultural history. Today it is still to build response plans to

Figure 18: The six objectives of the Thessaloniki Waterfront vision.

Development Recommendation | The vision The Tessaloniki Waterfront vision is defined by six overreaching themes and broad objectives. The successful revitalization of the waterfront can be achieved through concrete goals, planning initiatives, and proposed projects to implement these objectives.

Promotion of Promotion of Mobility Economic Environmental Social local culture health and enhancement development upgrades inclusiviness and identity well-being

• Improve • Increase tourism • Reduce air, • Foster youth • Celebrate local • Encourage and pedestrian flows • Enhance City water, and soil participation culture facilitate leisure • Reduce traffic revenues pollution • Enhance site • Highlight and athletic congestion • Attract private • Reduce urban activation historical activities • Enhance public investment noise initiatives monuments and • Improve public transportation • Create new jobs • Streamline waste • Create a child- landmarks health through • Increase parking • Increase property management friendly city • Capitalize opportunities for areas/spaces values • Increase/improve • Co-create on historical active living • Expand/ • Promote green and open inclusive open buildings • Establish upgrade cycling innovation and spaces spaces • Enhance cultural educational infrastructure entrepreneurship • Promote cultural awareness and activities/ • Improve road • Enhance diversity engagement programs infrastructure commercial • Safeguard activity citizens’ basic needs (water, food, shelter)

Source: City of Thessaloniki.

52 Proceedings from the 2019 UR Europe Conference earthquakes and other natural Figure 19: Lisbon’s vulnerability to floods. disasters, as well as engage new youth networks in resilience planning. n Moderate n High The city launched “Thessaloniki n Very high 2030,” the first city resilience strategy in Greece, in March 2017 (with support from 100 Resilient Cities), and it is now making good progress in the implementation of the strategy. The resilience strategy reflects Thessaloniki’s ambitions as a city: It wants to be inclusive; locally oriented but with international partnerships and exchanges; and forward looking to address interrelated challenges, goals, targets and actions. As Greece has a highly centralized governance system, the city is seeking more financing and is exploring cross-sector partnership Source: Lisbon Municipal Civil Protection. models to bring more resources to climate adaptation, sustainability, up to 2100) include four main and resilience projects. Lisbon, Portugal scenarios for the city of Lisbon: a Lisbon, Western Europe’s oldest A major long-term revitalization rise in mean sea level, an increase city, is a major economic center project to create vibrant thematic in temperature, a decrease for both Portugal and the rest destinations has been started of the continent. However, in rainfall, and an increase in along the city’s entire 8.5 km many of the city’s buildings are extreme weather events. Given waterfront (Figure 18). The centuries old, and infrastructure the last scenario—for example, project combines leisure and is likewise aging. Though the city an increase in the frequency and sports activities with commerce, has strong technical expertise severity of extreme weather while also linking the city with and political will to undertake situations such as urban flash parks, green areas, bikeways, and upgrades, it also faces financial floods, combined with a maximum pedestrian paths. Developing the constraints stemming from the high tide, storm surge, and rising city’s most popular public space global economic crisis. Urban sea level—investment in a joint and creating more open and improvement projects will be preventive policy based on a green spaces in the dense urban required to ensure residents have sustainable approach to minimize environment is a pressing issue. ongoing access to services, and expected impacts is urgent. The Thessaloniki’s resilience strategy to reduce the risk from seismic city’s resilience strategy therefore provides a roadmap for the city to activity, which could cripple current focuses strongly on urban flood make such revitalization projects structures and networks. The city risk (Figure 19) and prioritizes happen, from concept to financing is preparing for other threats— investment in planning, “building and implementation, in part by especially storms—by integrating back better” adaptation and establishing the clear regulations response services to increase mitigation strategies, and reducing that will encourage private efficiency and effectiveness. impacts and likely damage. companies to invest and also help communities trust that the public The challenges posed by climate Floods in Lisbon are unpredictable goals will be achieved. change (based on projections events that can occur in less than

53 Building urban resilience: Integrating climate and disaster risks into urban development

one hour due to heavy rain (flash ● Stability and capacity within ● Seek efficiency gains floods with overload of drainage city administration that often through cross-cutting systems), or during long periods lacks crucial technical expertise, approaches. Many solutions of rainfall (floods with rising water which may hamper planning to improved city resilience levels). To assess the main flood and implementation of more are found not in major risk areas, the municipality used complex infrastructure projects infrastructure investments, spatial analysis tools to combine ● Ensuring that actions occur but in working better across physical and socio-urban variables and decisions are made along a silos within city governments or with historical flooding situations very long chain of activities for across spheres of government. identified by the emergency resilience interventions (from Simple actions such as services. The implementation of the planning to implementation and increasing the frequency of strategy has seen the adoption of response), especially around the cleaning of stormwater drains some innovative cross-sector work most pressing areas for action could significantly reduce within the municipal government, flooding. This approach requires including preventive drain cleaning, improvements in the flow of transformation of open spaces with permeable surfaces, and Recommendations information and communication deepening of solutions to the main and Conclusion between various departments rainwater drainage problems with and ministries. While city officials and leaders the construction of two large face complex and ever evolving The final key message is that tunnels (5 km and 1 km) and other challenges, there are some key every city’s environment and most infrastructure, in order to mitigate lessons from this session that pressing issues are unique, and the consequences. show that it is possible to make thus solutions, investments, and positive strides toward resilience: pathways for development must be highly tailored to address those Challenges ● Rely on data-driven decision local needs. There is no one-size- making and robust analytics. fits-all solution to urban resilience, From the presentations and during Utilizing multi-layered analysis but there are many examples the panel discussion, a number of and GIS tools can not only key challenges facing cities that allow for improved insights and (including the cases presented in aim to build greater resilience problem diagnosis but can also this session) that lessons can be emerged. These include be used to build support for learned from. ● Short political cycles, relevant larger-scale and more ambitious investment projects. to the timelines for resilience References planning and responses, which ● Secure community make it difficult to know if participation and buy-in for World Bank. 2016. Investing in Urban longer-term initiatives will be interventions. Infrastructure Resilience: Protecting and Promoting seen to conclusion investments needed to Development in a Changing World. Washington, DC: World Bank Group. ● Conveying the urgency of improve resilience may at https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/ resilience investments and times inconvenience residents handle/10986/25219. securing support for them and require trade-offs in local within environments with budgets. Community capacity 100 Resilient Cities, “What Is Urban limited financial resources and building and active participatory Resilience?”, https://www.100resilientcities. many competing investment processes can help to build org/resources/. needs both support for investments and ensure future use of ● community assets.

54 Session 10

Critical infrastructure risks and why investing in resilience makes financial sense

Session Contributors Session Summary Jun Rentschler, World Bank/GFDRR This session made the case that investing in resilient infrastructure Mihai Stirbulescu, CE-Distribution can unlock significant economic opportunities for people. An Gaetano Vivo, European Commission expert panel discussed practical steps that can be taken to Samantha Cook, World Bank ensure the resilience of infrastructure systems, and ways to overcome the institutional and financing barriers that often impede progress. The session was based on the World Bank’s recent Lifelines report (Hallegatte, Rentschler, and Rozenberg 2019), which showed that investing in resilient infrastructure is a significant economic opportunity: the overall net benefit of doing so in developing countries would be $4.2 trillion over the lifetime of new infrastructure, with $4 in benefits for each $1 invested. The panel members contributed hands-on perspectives on how to increase infrastructure resilience, with case studies from the European Union, Romania in particular, as well as global examples from Indonesia and Nepal. Key messages include the following: First, there is a direct link between resilient infrastructure and development outcomes. Second, there is a strong economic case for investing in resilient infrastructure. Third, a roadmap for ensuring infrastructure resilience includes better maintenance, but also targeted actions for risk-informed decision making and financing.

Photo: chameleonseye. 55 Critical infrastructure risks and why investing in resilience makes financial sense

Background supply. Substandard sanitation and ● Criticality analysis. floods exacerbate water-borne Identifying and prioritizing There is a direct link between diseases that particularly affect the most critical components resilient infrastructure and children. And the cost of electric of infrastructure systems development outcomes. generators reduces the ability can help to strengthen weak Especially in developing countries, of small firm to innovate and or vulnerable links and build infrastructure disruptions are compete. Not all infrastructure resilience at the lowest an everyday concern. Not only disruptions are due to natural possible cost. do they affect people’s well- hazards and climate change. But ● Nature-based solutions. being and quality of life, but they storms, floods, earthquakes, and Conserving forests to prevent also undermine businesses, job other natural hazards are still landslides, or wetlands to creation, and economic prospects. responsible for between 10 and improve water quality, is often Resilient infrastructure, on the 70 percent of all disruptions, more cost-effective than other hand, can be a lifeline to depending on the country and relying on hard infrastructure better health, better education, sector. Moreover, infrastructure alone. and better livelihoods. Natural systems that perform poorly hazards cause significant under normal conditions are Still, not all infrastructure damages to infrastructure particularly vulnerable to natural disruptions can be prevented, assets. In low- and middle-income shocks. which means that it is essential to countries, direct damages to prepare for and manage them— power generation and transport for instance by ensuring that each infrastructure amount to $18 Case Studies home has emergency supplies, billion a year. Yet when natural that firms have robust and hazards damage and disrupt There is a strong economic adaptable supply chains, and that infrastructure, the main impacts case for investing in resilient critical users like hospitals have are not the repair costs borne by infrastructure. Solutions to backup capacities. the road agency or power utility. improve the resilience of Instead, the main impact is on The overall net benefit infrastructure systems are people: on businesses that lack of investing in resilient readily available. Investing in the electricity to keep factories infrastructure in developing these solutions is both sound running or use the internet to countries would be $4.2 trillion and profitable. A range of options process orders and payments; and over the lifetime of new exists to make infrastructure households who lose access to infrastructure. The returns on assets more resilient, such as safe drinking water or are unable these investments depend on reinforcing electric poles and to go to work, to school, or to many factors and are very context specific. Nevertheless, investing hospitals. elevating roads. However, it is critical to go beyond individual in more resilient infrastructure is Altogether, infrastructure assets, and adopt various profitable in almost all conceivable disruptions caused by natural approaches to designing more scenarios. Indeed, estimates show hazards, poor maintenance, and resilient systems and networks: that, on average, $1 invested mismanagement of infrastructure in these solutions yields $4 in ● are costing households and firms Network redundancy. It benefits. Moreover, the extra at least $390 billion a year in can be more efficient to build cost of ensuring that all new low- and middle-income countries. redundancy into networks power, water, sanitation, and While this figure is large, it does by increasing the number of transport infrastructure assets not cover some important effects connections; a city that is are resilient is only 3 percent of that are difficult to measure. For accessible through multiple overall investment needs. Climate instance, the impact on gender roads and powered through change and the rapid pace of equality is crucial, as girls’ access multiple transmission lines is infrastructure development to education is particularly less likely to find itself isolated make it even more important and affected by unreliable power or without power. urgent to integrate resilience in all

56 Proceedings from the 2019 UR Europe Conference infrastructure investments. Each assessments and to identify 1. Get the basics right. Ensure decade of inaction costs low- and cost-effective solutions—even that infrastructure assets are middle-income countries around for multi-billion-dollar projects. well designed and maintained. $1 trillion in losses. This trend should be reversed. 2. Build institutions for A roadmap for ensuring ● Standards and capacity resilience. Coordinate infrastructure resilience includes building. Resources must the actions of the many better maintenance, but also also be targeted toward stakeholders involved in targeted actions for risk-informed improving construction infrastructure design and decision making and financing. standards and building norms: operations. For infrastructure investors, the enforcement capacity of 3. Create regulations and governments, development regulatory agencies should be incentives for resilience. banks, and the private sector, strengthened; master plans Ensure that all actors take the message is clear: rather than should account for natural just spending more, spend better. risks, reinforce redundancy, into account the full cost of Closing the infrastructure gap to and build on nature-based infrastructure disruptions to meet the Sustainable Development solutions; and data on natural people and firms. Goals will require substantial hazards, climate change 4. Improve decision making. investments in new infrastructure scenarios, and modeling tools Strengthen decision-making and in the maintenance of existing should be freely available capacities and provide assets. But again, it’s not only so that decision makers can appropriate data on natural about spending more, it’s also account for natural risks. hazards and climate change. about spending better. Small investments at the early 5. Provide financing. Focus on Investing in smarter planning, stages of project design can early stage funding for resilient regulation, project design, and be transformational and highly infrastructure design to save maintenance can significantly cost-effective. However, as they large amounts over the asset’s reduce the costs of repairs or often lack funding in low-income entire lifetime. reconstruction after a disaster countries, there is an important strikes. The following areas of role to play for the international focus are key: community. References ● Maintenance. Preventive maintenance reduces the Hallegatte, Stephane, Jun Rentschler, overall cost of infrastructure, Recommendations and Julie Rozenberg. 2019. Lifelines: The Resilient Infrastructure Opportunity. and improves its efficiency, and Conclusion Sustainable Infrastructure Series. reliability, and resilience. Based on the Lifelines report, Washington, DC: World Bank. ● Early stage project design. the session set out five detailed Too often, early stage project recommendations to ensure that design lacks the resources infrastructure systems and users to perform adequate risk become more resilient:

Investing in more resilient infrastructure is profitable in almost all conceivable scenarios. Indeed, estimates show that, on average, $1 invested in these solutions yields $4 in benefits.

57 Session 11

Innovations in geospatial data collection and analytics: Shaping the future of understanding the built environment

Session Contributors Session Summary Vica Bogaerts, World Bank When a disaster strikes, having immediate insights into Andreas Uttenthaler, GAF who and what are affected is critically important. When Max Ferguson, Stanford University a large area has been affected, eyewitness reports or Zac Yang, Solutions Engineering, Orbital photos can provide an important snapshot, while satellite Insight imagery can show in one single image the full extent of the disaster. Understanding the big picture is important, but for satellite imagery to make a real difference for first responders, the imagery needs to be actionable. This means it needs to be granular and in near-real time. This raises an important question: can analytics based on satellite imagery directly inform decision making?

Understanding the big picture is important, but for satellite imagery to make a real difference for first responders, the imagery needs to be actionable.

58 Beira, Mozambique. Before and after Tropical Cyclone Idai. An estimated 1 million people were without electricity. Source: NASA. Proceedings from the 2019 UR Europe Conference

Background: Satellites, How can computer vision and and determine which roads are Cloud Computing, deep learning inform decision affected during the flood event. making before and after disasters? and Artificial Computer vision and deep learning In the aftermath of a disaster, can also provide value before Intelligence satellite imagery can provide a bird’s-eye view of the affected disasters strike. Satellite imagery Satellites have been around for a area. In the case of a flood event, can provide insights into the while, but over the past decade the imagery shows the extent of number of people and assets the number of satellites in orbit flooding, but it does not answer concentrated in high-risk areas. has increased exponentially. simple but critical questions, This allows decision makers to These satellites are producing such as how many buildings and understand who and what are an enormous amount of data. In roads are flooded, or which roads potentially in harm’s way today. fact, satellites are producing so are obstructed or impassible. Computer vision and deep learning much data that it has become can build on this and show who and more than humans can handle. In Computer vision and deep what are likely to be in harm’s way the past, this would have been a learning, however, can analyze the in the future. In the case of floods, challenge, since only governments satellite imagery to answer these one can look at the rate of new had the ability to do large-data questions. Automated object and computation, but today there change detection can be used to construction in high-risk areas, are numerous cloud computing identify the entire road network such as floodplains. applications for the general user. Figure 20: Roads and buildings in rural area northeast of Vientiane, Lao People’s Building on these advances, new Democratic Republic. opportunities are emerging that combine satellite imagery and cloud computing with computer vision and deep learning.

Within computer vision and deep learning, object detection is a promising technique. This technique makes it possible to automate the identification and location of objects of a certain class in an image. For example, Microsoft applied this technique to predict building footprints of 120 million buildings across the United States, and scientists at Planet used object detection to identify every single road on earth. While the outcome may not be 100 percent accurate, this automated approach does offer an unprecedented level of global completeness. Change detection is another promising technique; it enables the identification of spatial changes in satellite images over time, which if done manually can be time- consuming and tedious. An automated approach allows this type of analytics to be done fast and at scale. Source: Planet Mosaics team/Planet Analytics team/OpenStreetMap and its contributors.

Beira, Mozambique. Before and after Tropical Cyclone Idai. An estimated 1 million people were without electricity. Source: NASA. 59 Innovations in geospatial data collection and analytics: Shaping the future of understanding the built environment

Figure 21: 5 m Euro-Maps 3D digital surface model of the river Mariza at the Greek-Turkish border.

Source: Andreas Uttenthaler, GAF.

Rather than having to rely on an Several trends—the constantly In the last 10 years, in close inspection agency, which is often increasing availability of very cooperation with the Remote understaffed, decision makers can high-resolution (VHR) and high- Sensing Technology Institute use automated change detection resolution (HR) satellite imagery; (IMF) of the German Aerospace to provide immediate insights recent developments in data Center (DLR), GAF has developed into where the level of exposure resolution, quality, and collection a highly automated multi-source is increasing and to quantify the capabilities; and advances in production line for generating level of change (see Figure 20). computer vision—have made it digital elevation models out of easier to produce highly accurate optical stereo and multi-stereo This session showcased ongoing digital elevation models and satellite data. This production efforts by GAF, Stanford different types of maps. Optical line is based upon a pixel-wise University, and Orbital Insights matching approach called Semi- to apply the latest developments stereo and multi-stereo satellite Global Matching (SGM), and related to satellite imagery, cloud images are therefore a valuable source for the worldwide and currently more than 180 cities computing, computer vision, and worldwide have been processed deep learning to inform decision standardized generation of digital surface models (DSMs), as either 30 cm or 50 cm DSMs, making before and after disasters. 2 digital terrain models (DTMs), and more than 8 million km have been processed as 5 m DSMs. The and other derived products (e.g., 5 m Euro-Maps 3D DSM is already Case Studies building footprints). These are available for the whole of Europe important basis layers for many Case study 1: The and can be used for transnational geospatial applications in the risk development of digital applications. management domain, such as elevation models based on flood risk modeling, vulnerability The automated processing optical stereo and multi- mapping, damage assessment, and chain can be easily adapted stereo satellite imagery population estimation. to new satellite input data,

60 Proceedings from the 2019 UR Europe Conference

Figure 22: Risk assessment with computer vision.

Source: Max Ferguson, Stanford University. and processing capacities can use emerging technologies to opens up opportunities for be further increased by using rapidly collect exposure data from cities around the world to either a scalable private cloud satellite imagery. In the case understand their risks and begin infrastructure or public clouds of earthquake risk, the system taking proactive steps toward for the stereo matching process, predicts building characteristics, enhancing disaster resilience which leads to an accelerated such as the building material, (Figure 22). This is particularly production. During the session, building height, building footprint, relevant for developing countries, GAF presented examples with a and the seismic code that was which often operate under focus on southeastern Europe, used for construction. Just a few severe data constraints and where VHR and HR digital years ago, this technology would have scarce financial resources elevation models and derived have been considered unfeasible, for disaster risk mitigation, and products have already been demanding resources that most where development efforts are generated on a large scale (see countries and communities did unfortunately threatened by the Figure 21). The same approach not have. However, with recent economic burden of disasters. can also be used by cities to developments in computer vision Computer vision technology can support urban planning and and the increased availability of help cities overcome the lack disaster risk and emergency satellite imagery, it is now possible of data and prohibitive prices management. to automate a large portion of for data collection, leading to a this work. better understanding of risk and Case study 2: Computer enabling data-driven disaster risk vision–powered risk management practices. We are analytics for cities around Recommendations currently taking the next step the world toward the ambitious goal of and Conclusion creating a worldwide information To answer critical questions about system of the built environment cities’ exposure to disaster risk at The potential to conduct rapid and deploying the technology to scale, we turn to a combination of high-resolution risk assessments perform high-resolution mapping AI-based technology and proven using satellite imagery and of residential buildings in 29 cities expert analytics. The idea is simple: state-of-the-art risk analytics across Europe and Central Asia.

61 Session 12

Assessing and managing risk to cultural heritage: Preserving the past for the future

Session Contributors Session Summary Mihaela Hărmănescu, Ion Mincu University of Architecture and Urbanism, Bucharest, Romania There is a growing, overarching consensus today that Xavier Gerard, Iconem cultural heritage conservation and preservation are an Zeynap Gül Unal, ICOMOS ICORP integral part of building resilience. However, even as (International Scientific Committee on Risk advances are made in the methods and tools to better Preparedness) protect physical heritage and assets, the preservation Matei Sumbasacu, Re: RiSe of intangible social and communal heritage as an integral Raluca-Maria Trifa, Ion Mincu University of part of the post-disaster reconstruction process remains Architecture and Urbanism, Bucharest, Romania poorly understood. In this context, this session sought to Luca Ponticelli, National Firefighters Corps showcase the ways in which the devastating impacts of (CNVVF), Avellino, Italy natural disasters can affect the cultures of communities, Tafadzwa Irvine Dube, World Bank and it discussed the many benefits of including a targeted Nora Mirzoyan, World Bank approach within disaster risk management (DRM) for tangible and intangible forms of cultural heritage alike. The session also sought to shed light on some of the emerging innovative solutions and tools available to improve the current understanding of disaster risks in the context of cultural heritage, and to show how such information could be useful during all DRM phases.

Suriname aerial mangrove roots. Photo: banjongseal324.

6262 Palmyra, Siria. Photo: diatrezor. Proceedings from the 2019 UR Europe Conference

Background and help both decision makers heritage. She highlighted in and practitioners understand particular the role of traditional Cultural heritage can be highly the intrinsic value that culture knowledge in reconstruction as well vulnerable to natural disasters has. Given that culture is not as the opportunities provided by and climate change due to greater homogenous and varies across reconstruction to revive traditional exposure and aging structures. countries, this makes developing knowledge that may have been lost The recent earthquakes in generic solutions and proposals in the past. Albania (2019) and Turkey (2020) within the DRM practice even more Matei Sumbascu and Raluca- not only caused devastating challenging. Maria Trifa showcased efforts in losses to human lives, but also Romania to engage communities led to irreparable damages to in historical neighborhoods of built environments and other Case Studies Bucharest to better prepare for infrastructure, including potentially the next disaster and safeguard irreplaceable cultural heritage Xavier Gerard underlined the rich cultural heritage for the assets. In Albania, for example, the potential of new, modern two national museums are now technologies to support digitization next generation. Their presentation considered uninhabitable, and of endangered heritage sites highlighted the challenges facing approximately 53 monuments around the world and thus record the built heritage of Bucharest, received some form of damage them for future generations. where a large number of cultural from the earthquake. These He showed how 3D scanning heritage assets are currently in recent cases illustrate the potent techniques, including by means an advanced state of degradation threat that natural hazards can of drones, have been used in due to lack of maintenance, pose to historic heritage sites, more than 30-plus countries abandonment, uncertain legal over and above the inherent to digitize iconic heritage sites, status, etc. In addition, their complexity that arises from the including Saint Jacques Tower in presentations illustrated the unique characteristics of each France, Pompeii in Italy, Island challenges involved in helping asset, i.e., whether it is tangible or of Delos in Greece, Mes Aynak in communities in at-risk areas intangible, movable or immovable, Afghanistan, Palmyra in Syria, and better understand the risks they or some combination of the Angkor in Cambodia, to name a face and take action to preserve aforementioned. few. Importantly, the presentation their heritage. To address this also described work undertaken challenge, the Catalog Bucuresti According to UNESCO (United in Syria and Iraq to highlight how project is undertaking an extensive Nations Educational, Scientific and these new technologies are useful effort to collect and analyze all Cultural Organization), cultural for recovery of cultural heritage in the buildings located in the Built heritage is both the physical and emergency situations and support Protected Areas of Bucharest. intangible attributes inherited from the recovery of people impacted by This community-oriented seismic the past that help define a society. conflict or disaster. preparedness project is helping Cultural heritage goes beyond to educate and raise awareness Zeynep Gül Unal showcased physical assets, monuments, and among the inhabitants on ways inspiring stories of post-disaster museums and spans people’s to support the preservation of recovery of cultural heritage by traditions, cultures, and identities. the built heritage in historical professionals and local communities In this regard, it is imperative to neighborhoods of Bucharest. find methods to prevent or reduce in Nepal, Mali, Pakistan, Turkey, and the impacts of disaster events that Brazil. Through the documentary Luca Ponticelli presented the can cause irreparable damage to series ICOMOS-ICORP On experience of the Italian Task the social and economic fabric of The Road Project, case-study Force for the safeguarding of local communities and livelihoods. stories highlighted the impacts cultural heritage in emergencies The case studies presented during that disasters have on both the and described how quick response the session highlighted these very economy and social fabric of the is imperative to avoid irreplaceable issues, particularly with regard local communities affected by losses. Italy has the greatest to how to communicate the risks the destruction of their cultural number of UNESCO World Heritage

63 Assessing and managing risk to cultural heritage: Preserving the past for the future

Sites and has suffered from and promotes cohesion. planning. This means integrating recurrent earthquakes throughout Communities themselves often cultural heritage protection into its history. He shared experiences have traditional knowledge public awareness campaigns; of rescuing cultural heritage that indicates how best to national, subnational, and local assets following the earthquakes protect their cultural heritage, disaster risk reduction plans; land in 2009 in L’Aquila (Italy), Nepal but they often lack adequate use planning; and other facets of (2015), and Antigua and Barbuda resources. By working closely disaster risk management across (2017), emphasizing in particular with knowledgeable community all levels. Some other important the physical measures adopted members, conservation efforts steps include the following: to protect the assets, remote can also be a powerful tool to ● Conducting data collection, assessment and processing tools build broader resilience across cataloging, and assessment used, and procedures adopted to communities. of risks to cultural heritage prevent further degradation. ● In many countries, there is sites in a manner that is easy still no functional coordination to understand and produces Challenges mechanism between the actionable information for all DRM and cultural heritage relevant actors, such as site The session identified several main preservation fields. In order to managers of cultural heritage challenges: have a complete understanding assets, local communities, and of the risks heritage sites emergency responders. ● The risk to cultural heritage face, it is essential as a first ● Exploring and encouraging continues to increase in the step that professionals and further use of innovative face of climate change, growth agencies in DRM and cultural tools, such as 3D modeling for and development, and other preservation engage in digitization of cultural heritage factors. As a result, there is cooperative work to arrive at assets, prior to disaster events, a need to continue to invest complete solutions. in risk identification tools along with use of artificial and methods, and at higher ● Cultural heritage is still not fully intelligence following disasters resolutions, that help catalog integrated in most national to support reconstruction and communicate the likely disaster risk management efforts. future impacts of natural and strategies. While the Sendai ● Improving the urban legislation Framework includes among its man-made disaster events regarding cultural heritage to key priorities the preservation on cultural heritage sites. better protect built heritage and protection of cultural This effort entails careful and support the resilience of heritage, many national entities documentation of cultural the communities that inhabit have yet to adequately address heritage assets and local those areas. This step should the potential cultural heritage traditions, including through include dedicated public impacts in their emergency digital media, online platforms, awareness efforts from officials plans and do not have smartphone applications, to ensure that communities are dedicated contingency plans virtual museums, and social better prepared for disasters. media platforms, and using this to protect vulnerable cultural information to increase public heritage. ● Promoting better awareness of the risks and communication of risks what can be done to preserve and collaboration between heritage assets. Recommendations disaster risk managers and cultural heritage entities, ● and Conclusion There is a strong need to both within countries and foster the preservation of To preserve the past, the first across state borders. Early culture within vulnerable step is to see the safeguarding warnings and close work with communities, as safeguarding of cultural heritage as a core DRM professionals to better culture strengthens resilience component of DRM policies and prepare for disasters will

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allow heritage managers to Heritage from Natural and Man-Made Ranghieri, F., and M. Ishiwatari, eds. 2014. protect sites, communities to Disasters: A Comparative Analysis of Risk “Cultural Heritage and Preservation.” Management in the EU.” Working Paper. Chapter 35 in Learning from Megadisasters: prepare for likely scenarios, Publications Office of the European Union, Lessons from the Great East Japan and policy makers to Luxembourg. Earthquake, 323–29. Washington, DC: World Bank. https://openknowledge. prioritize investments in risk Government of Albania. 2020. “Albania worldbank.org/handle/10986/18864 management. Post-Disaster Needs Assessment. Volume A Report.” European Union, United Nations Re: Rise. http://www.rerise.org/. Albania, and the World Bank, Tirana, Albania. UNESCO (United Nations Educational, ICOMOS (International Council on Scientific and Cultural Organization). References and Monuments and Sites). https://www.icomos. https://en.unesco.org/. org/en/. Further Resources UNESCO (United Nations Educational, ICORP (International Committee on Risk Scientific and Cultural Organization), ARCEN (Romanian Association for Culture, Preparedness). http://icorp.icomos.org/. UNPFA (United Nations Population Fund), Education, Normality). “Catalog Bucuresti.” and UNDP (United Nations Development Newman, J., and B. Minguez Garcia. 2018. http://www.arcen.info/catalog-bucuresti/. Programme). 2015. Post-2015 Dialogues “Technical Deep Dive on Resilient Cultural on Culture and Development. Paris and NY: Bonazza, Alessandra, Ingval Maxwell, Miloš Heritage and Tourism: Summary Report.” UNESCO, UNPFA, and UNDP. Drdácký, Ellizabeth Vintzileou, and Christian Washington, DC: World Bank. Hanus. 2018. “Safeguarding Cultural

To preserve the past, the first step is to see the safeguarding of cultural heritage as a core component of DRM policies and planning.

Island of Delos, Greece. Photo: onepony. 65 Session 13

Assessing and managing the threat of emerging risks (cyber threats, pandemics, extreme heat)

Session Contributors Session Summary Cristina Stefan, Global Crisis Risk Platform, World Bank Earthquakes, hurricanes, and even the worst terrorist Rosmarie DeWit, ZAMG, Austria attacks are localized events. Emerging risks—such as epidemics, cyber threats, or extreme heat—don’t follow Mark Gallivan, Metabiota the classical definition of a disaster. They may occur over Bogdan Carlescu, Bitdefender, Romania months. They are not confined to one place. They are unlikely to progress in an easily predictable way. These have been historically the “uninsurable” risks, due to the nature of the damage—not instantaneous shocks, with immediately measurable effects, but rather longer-term shocks, with systemic risk ramifications in various industries. The common traits that emerging risks share are first that they are occurring more frequently, and second that they are facilitated by high levels of interconnectivity and population mobility. Pandemics and extreme heat also have in common that they are visible effects of climate change.

When will it happen? (Anticipation) How bad will it be? For how long will it last?

Suriname aerial mangrove roots. Photo: banjongseal324.

Korea, January 28, 2020. At the main entrance of Incheon St. Mary’s Hospital, hospital staff check the outbound records of outpatients and 66 visitors to prevent the entry of new coronaviruses. Photo: Goldcastle7. Proceedings from the 2019 UR Europe Conference

Background Case Studies lots, absorb more heat than the rural areas surrounding the city, Industries have unique financial How extreme heat threatens and less evaporative cooling takes and operational risk profiles, but our cities and livelihoods place in cities because the amount the general lack of thorough of vegetation is lower. Currently, business interruption or Although not as immediately over 70 percent of the European contingency planning leaves obvious as the effects of floods population lives in urban areas, most companies vulnerable to or storms, extreme heat such as causing a high number of people emerging risks, without financial is experienced during heat waves to be exposed to these increased recourse. Today’s improving data is a direct threat to society, with temperatures. technologies, and the robust effects ranging from increasing Heat load distribution in several models they are enabling, should risk of blackouts in the power Central European cities, including allow business and political decision supply chain to serious health Vienna (Figure 23) and Krakow makers to be better informed effects and even death. The (Figure 24), clearly shows how about these risks. The better United Nations Environment increased urbanization is contributing they understand them, the better Program stated that the 2003 to heat island development. their chances of mitigating and European heat wave was the worst natural disaster in the last containing losses. Pandemics: Deadly, costly, 50 years in Europe, claiming over Experts from the various fields have 30,000 casualties. and increasingly frequent shared knowledge on the latest threats As a result of climate change, heat advancements and real applications Every flu season, public health of their work in measuring and waves continue to increase in duration, frequency, and intensity. experts speculate about the preparing against these “atypical” likelihood of a future global catastrophes. Both livelihoods and Cities are particularly vulnerable, as urban areas are generally warmer pandemic and its possible costs to lives will depend on the energy lives and livelihoods. No one doubts and resources businesses and than their surroundings, an effect referred to as the Urban Heat those costs will be high. In recent governments apply to what is less a years, outbreaks of highly infectious possibility than a likelihood. Island (UHI). Urban surfaces, such as buildings, roads, and parking diseases, though short of pandemic levels, have taken billions of dollars

Figure 23: Reconstructing urban climate of Vienna based on historical maps.

Source: Žuvela-Aloise et al. 2014. Note: Urban heat load distribution in Vienna (Austria) was determined based on (i) land use distribution derived from geographical maps of the First Military Mapping Survey of the Austrian Empire, from the period 1764–1787; and (ii) the current land use distribution provided by the City of Vienna.

67 Assessing and managing risk to cultural heritage: Preserving the past for the future

Figure 24: Urban climate in Krakow and global climate change. A clear increase in heat load is projected toward the middle of the century and strong increase toward the end of the century. Source: Bokwa et al. 2018.

Heat load (mean annual number of days Tmax ≥ 25°C) 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100

1971–2000 2021–2050 2071–2100

Figure 25: Last 100 years of epidemic outbreaks and their economic impacts.

2000 DENGUE 2003 AVIAN FLU 1918–1920 1957–1958 1972–1974 SPANISH FLU ASIAN FLU SMALLPOX 2009 SWINE FLU 1981 2014 HIV/AIDS PLAGUE

2015 ZIKA $16b impact 2015 EBOLA 1920 2020

2017 LASSA FEVER 2014 EBOLA $2b impact

1976 2012 EBOLA MERS $9b impact 2005 1968–1969 MARBURG VIRUS HONG KONG FLU 2002 SARS

Source: Metabiota.

from the global economy and report by the National Academy of global or even a regional disease caused untold misery. For example, Medicine’s Commission on a Global outbreak. the World Bank projected losses Health Risk Framework for the of $3.5 billion in Latin America and Future (“The Neglected Dimension Cyber risk the Caribbean due to the 2016 Zika of Global Security. A Framework Cyber risk is a relatively young virus. The 2014 Ebola outbreak in to Counter Infectious Disease threat with a short history of Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone Crises (2016)”) estimates that insurance claims experience, cost those countries an estimated an outbreak on the scale of the which demonstrates that the $2.8 billion in overall economic 1918 influenza pandemic would risk is constantly changing and impact through 2015. cost the global economy as much evolving. Media reports are full While public health officials and as $60 billion a year (Figure 25). of individual cases of major data medical professionals work to Despite this and other frightening breaches or cyberattacks on understand how to prevent or estimates, businesses today are high-profile technology targets. contain pandemics to save lives, unprepared for the revenue The main fear is that the cyber less attention has been paid to losses that would result from the threat is inherently scalable—a containing the economic risks. The disruption of commerce during a single malicious email can reach

68 Proceedings from the 2019 UR Europe Conference hundreds of thousands of savings and better storm water by quantitative risk analytics. company recipients with one click retention. Blue city strategies Quantified risk provides the of a mouse. Cyber risk is clearly favor the creation of ponds, lakes, analytical underpinning for decision systemic, as it is spread through fountains or canals to achieve making and can help in attempting interconnectivity: the internet, evaporative cooling and increased to build a unified view of risk. communications, and internal ventilation in cities. Finally, White The solution starts with the and external networks. These city approaches suggest the use creation of a market for more connections are neither obvious of bright (reflective) materials nor easily tracked. In the same for a better reflection of solar robust epidemiological models way, the motivations behind any radiation as well as energy (which account for socio- cyberattack will vary depending on savings. demographic characteristics, the initiating actor (Figure 26). transportation patterns, or Preparedness for pandemics hospital capacity) and better data Preparedness is a marathon, not (from epidemiological and public Recommendations a sprint. Decisions on funding health research on disease spread) for preparedness or response that can be combined to improve and Conclusion to epidemic risk must be framed pandemic risk models, allowing Extreme heat Figure 26: Type of cyberattack by initiating actor. Actions that help reduce the effects of urban heat islands range CYBER THREAT ACTOR MOTIVATION from single adaptation options to urban planning strategies and heat wave measures in cities. They provide concrete tools for city officials or policy makers to combat excess heat risks (Figure 27).

The strategic urban planning begins with city analysis reliant on versatile models that highlight “hot spots,” predict the future heat load, and help screen for the optimal adaptation measures. The adaptation measures for climate- resilient urban planning imply the combination of various adaptation measures (Figure 28) to reach Source: Bitdefender. the optimal mix of small measures Figure 27: that ensure that responses to Heat Risk Management. heat waves do not exacerbate the problem of climate change. The adaptation measures can Heat Warning Immediate be grouped by implementation System options and expected outcome Urban Heat in Green, Blue, or White city Island Analysis Climate Resilient Long Term approaches. For example, Green Urban Planning city strategies focus on parks, Adaptation green roofs or vertical gardens Heat Risk Management Options for evaporative cooling and insolation, as well as energy Source: ZAMG.

69 Assessing and managing risk to cultural heritage: Preserving the past for the future

Figure 28: Change in heat load based on change in land use.

REFERENCE CHANGE IN LAND USE CHANGE IN HEAT LOAD VIENNA

Source: ACRP (Austrian Climate Research Program project FOCUS-I.

governments and businesses to In this respect, the following risk References apply them specifically to their mitigation options are available: operations and their industries. Žuvela-Aloise M, Koch R, Neureiter A, Böhm ● Assume/accept. Acknowledge R, Buchholz S (2014) Reconstructing urban In addition, building preparedness the existence of a particular climate of Vienna based on historical maps indices that measure how well risk and make a deliberate dating to the early instrumental period. Urban Clim 10:490–508. a country is provisioned to fight decision to accept it without Bokwa, Anita & Dobrovolny, Petr & Gál, an outbreak (such as the Joint engaging in special efforts to Tamás & Geletič, Jan & Gulyás, Ágnes & External Evaluation scores control it. Hajto, Monika & Holec, Juraj & Hollosi, calculated by the World Health Brigitta & Kielar, Rafał & Lehnert, Michal ● Avoid. & Skarbit, Nóra & Šťastný, Pavel & Švec, Organization) helps governments Adjust program requirements or constraints Marek & Unger, János & Walawender, Jakub understand where and how a & Zuvela-Aloise, Maja. (2018). Urban climate pandemic is most likely to spread to eliminate or reduce the in Central European cities and global climate and how well the public health risk. This adjustment could be change. Acta climatologica et chorologica. 51-52. 7-35. sector in a specific geography is accommodated by a change in National Academy of Medicine. 2016. The prepared to respond. funding, schedule, or technical requirements. Neglected Dimension of Global Security: A Framework to Counter Infectious Disease Cybersecurity Crises. Washington, DC: The National ● Control. Implement actions Academies Press. The European Directive on to minimize the impact or Security of Network and Directive (EU) 2016/1148 of the European likelihood of the risk. Parliament and of the Council of 6 July Information Systems (Directive 2016 concerning measures for a high ● (EU) 2016/1148 of the European Transfer. Reassign common level of security of network and Parliament and of the Council) organizational accountability, information systems across the Union. states that “responsibilities responsibility, and authority to Government of Albania. 2020. “Albania in ensuring the security of another stakeholder willing to Post-Disaster Needs Assessment. Volume accept the risk. A Report.” European Union, United Nations network and information systems Albania, and the World Bank, Tirana, Albania. lie, to a great extent, with ● Monitor. Monitor the operators of essential services environment for changes that and digital service providers. affect the nature and/or the A culture of risk management, impact of the risk. involving risk assessment and the implementation of security Acknowledging that the variety measures appropriate to the risks of attacks implies a targeted, faced, should be promoted and personalized approach leads developed through appropriate to a whole menu of cyber risk regulatory requirements and technical controls developed by voluntary industry practices.” cybersecurity experts.

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An urgent matter in our homes: Tackling challenges of earthquake risk reduction in the housing sector

Session Contributors Session Summary Maryia Markhvida, World Bank This session considered the often unseen dangers in our Manya Deyanova, Mott MacDonald, Bulgaria homes, namely earthquake risk in the housing sector. Giuseppe Margani, Department of Civil Our homes play a central role in our lives: they shelter Engineering and Architecture, University of Catania, Italy our families, give us a sense of security and belonging, and are often the most highly priced asset that we own. Kelvin Berryman, GNS Science, New Zealand But today, residents in Europe and around the world Marina Neagu, World Bank are facing many challenges associated with rapidly aging building infrastructure, which urgently needs better management, maintenance, and capital improvements, including for energy efficiency.

“In large earthquakes 90 percent of damaged buildings are our homes.” —Source: Comerio 1997, 1998.

Apartment block in Transylvania, Romania. Photo: coldsnowstorm. 71 An urgent matter in our homes: Tackling challenges of earthquake risk reduction in the housing sector

Background Figure 29: Residential large panel building in Plovdiv, Bulgaria.

In Europe and Central Asia, multifamily residential buildings that were built during the period spanning the 1950s to the 1990s are of particular concern. Unfortunately, previous large earthquakes—such as those in Skopje (1963), Tashkent (1966), Vrancea (1977), Spitak (1988), and more recently Albania (2019)—have shown that the residential sector in this region remains very vulnerable. Previous experience shows that the housing sector is responsible Source: Mott MacDonald, Bulgaria. for as much as 90 percent of all damaged buildings (Comerio distinguished among the multifamily evolution of seismic codes does 2004), and it also concentrates buildings based on changes in the improve structural safety, it the majority of financial losses, construction practice throughout does not always mean that more leaving many families reliant on the years. The first group is recently built buildings are safe and shelter and financial support from buildings built predominantly before older buildings less so. For example, the government, family, or friends. the 1960s—e.g., adobe and wooden a recent study on large panel While there is an obvious need houses, unconfined and confined buildings built during the Soviet era to address the risk in the housing masonry multifamily buildings showed that if these buildings were sector, risk reduction in privately (these also continued to be built built with high construction quality owned multifamily buildings is a after the 1960s). The second group and were well maintained, their complex issue, where the financial of buildings is particular to the seismic safety was higher than that means and readiness to act among 1960–90 period; these were built of other building types of that time different residents of the same very quickly to make up for housing or even more modern ones (World building can vary drastically. shortages during the Soviet era, Bank and GFDRR, draft). On the which saw rapid urbanization. These other hand, more recent building types of buildings are characterized types, such as reinforced concrete Case Studies by mass construction, standardized frames with masonry infill, can suffer extensive damage, as seen Evolution of multifamily designs, and prefabricated in the 2019 Albania earthquake. residential construction and structural elements, and they Earthquake vulnerability is earthquake vulnerability include precast reinforced concrete dependent not only on building across Europe and Central Asia frames and large panel buildings. age, but also on other factors, (presented by Manya Deyanova) The last group of buildings is the post-1990 construction types, such as poor construction quality, post-construction modification, and Major cities across Eastern Europe such as in situ reinforced concrete and Central Asia exhibit similar dangerous “collapse” mechanisms frames with masonry infill, shear housing trends: the majority of the (e.g., soft story), which can be walls, and dual systems. urban population (~50–80 percent) present across different types of lives in multifamily apartment When it comes to earthquake construction. buildings, and more than 50 safety among the different building The market for unsafe buildings percent of the population lives groups, a common misconception (presented by Marina Batog) in apartments built between the is that seismic vulnerability of 1960s and 1990s. In fact, three buildings decreases as the year Unfortunately, in many places in major structural groups can be of construction increases. While Europe and Central Asia, poverty

72 Proceedings from the 2019 UR Europe Conference and earthquake vulnerability and informing owners of their damage in the residential buildings of buildings is interwoven; thus responsibilities and risk. There was caused by secondary perils, following a large event the less is also a need for governments such as liquefaction (greater than fortunate are also the ones to start asking and answering 50 percent of losses), lateral who suffer the most human and the difficult question about the spreading, and rockfall. One critical economic losses. Strong housing trade-offs between addressing aspect of New Zealand’s recovery policies have the potential to unsafe housing and public dangers following the earthquakes was that address this issue, but more often versus protecting the right to the country had the highest ratio we see that the lack of proper private property, as in the case of insured to economic losses, since policies creates a market for of condominiums: what if one residential earthquake insurance unsafe building. One such example private owner’s refusal to invest in is essentially mandatory (bank is Bucharest, where housing is retrofitting puts other residents mortgages require insurance cover). unaffordable for many, and policies and people at risk? Overall, insurance and reinsurance and investments to promote Lessons from the 2010–11 covered ~60 percent of rebuilding subsidized and safe housing are Canterbury earthquakes in New costs, thereby preventing many not systemic. As a result, those Zealand residents from going into financial who cannot afford to buy or rent (presented by Kelvin Berryman) debt as a result of reconstruction. well-maintained and safe housing on the market are typically left In New Zealand, the destructive There are several key takeaways with three possible scenarios: rent 2010–11 Canterbury earthquake from the Canterbury earthquakes. apartments in seismically risky, thus sequence was a real test for the Resilient housing allows people cheaper, buildings; illegally occupy country’s earthquake preparedness to “shelter in place” following a or “squat” in dilapidated and unsafe and resilience of the housing sector. large earthquake event, which buildings; or live in areas with low In general, the performance and leads to improved psychosocial real estate prices given unsafe recovery of residential buildings outcomes and workforce availability insalubrious housing conditions. was considered to be relatively to maintain business activity. The A market for unsafe homes is good. The good performance can building code needs to keep up to created, tolerated, and in some be attributed to the safe building date with hazard knowledge and cases even incentivized, by lack of types (mostly wooden houses, should extend from life safety housing policies. which perform well in earthquakes), objectives (structural failure) to and high residential insurance protecting social and economic So how does one successfully penetration. The majority of the futures as well (safe occupancy, integrate housing policy with effective risk reduction? Demand- Figure 30: Example of liquefaction damage during the Canterbury earthquake based interventions could consist sequence. of providing affordable safe housing alternatives tailored to the financial capabilities and needs of people currently living in unsafe conditions. Residents who live in seismically unsafe buildings should be made aware of the risk they are exposed to and offered alternatives, so that no one is forced to live in unsafe conditions. Potential offer- based interventions could include restricting the use of unsafe buildings for revenue-generating activities (e.g., short-term rentals, B&Bs), facilitating and incentivizing retrofit or redevelopment, Photo courtesy of Kelvin Berryman.

73 An urgent matter in our homes: Tackling challenges of earthquake risk reduction in the housing sector

Figure 31: Use of CLT panels to improve seismic safety and energy efficiency.

Current building Application Application of Cladding with with RC frame of CLT panels non-structural panels different finishing material

Source: Giuseppe Margani. functionality, provision of services). The process of quality control and overcome the abovementioned approval of safety assessments barriers. One possible solution is the Policies and land use planning are is key and should be streamlined. external addition of prefabricated urgently needed to address legacy Opportunities should also be taken structural cross-laminated timber issues in existing building stock to integrate seismic structural (CLT) panels, which improve global and to address secondary perils of assessment and upgrade with seismic safety. The structural CLT earthquake such as liquefaction, any ongoing programs for building panels are combined with other landslides, and tsunami. National improvements (e.g., energy nonstructural, customizable, disaster insurance pools need efficiency improvements). prefabricated panels made up of large penetration. Lastly, improved a light wooden structure. Both risk literacy among the public In order to solve the issue of panels are coupled with insulating and the private sector can have seismic safety in existing buildings, materials to increase energy a major impact on resilience via researchers and engineers have efficiency. Such an approach risk-informed decision making and started to come up with creative uses external intervention with improved social capital. and cost-efficient solutions, such prefabricated components, as addition and sale of floors in Opportunities for which optimizes cost, helps avoid large panel buildings to finance understanding and reducing relocation of the residents, and structural retrofit of the buildings. risk in the housing sector reduces construction time. Many of the European countries (presented by Manya Deyanova are currently making sizable and Giuseppe Margani) investments in improving energy References In order to evaluate the risk efficiency, but in seismic countries, in residential buildings, we any solution that addresses only Comerio, M. C. 2004. “Public Policy need to develop and promote energy efficiency can turn out to for Reducing Earthquake Risks: A US Perspective.” Building Research & standard guidelines for seismic be futile if an earthquake occurs. Information 32 (5): 403–13. Interventions for energy efficiency safety assessment, including World Bank and GFDRR (Global Facility consideration of “as is” condition and seismic retrofitting typically for Disaster Reduction and Recovery). of the buildings and not just exist separately, and they can lead (draft). Reducing Earthquake Risk in Large- the “as designed” structural to high occupant disturbance, long Panel Multifamily Buildings in Bulgaria. Washington, DC: World Bank. deficiencies. In addition, guidelines intervention times, and high costs. for structural seismic retrofitting There is, however, an opportunity and nonstructural improvements to use new innovative solutions of residential buildings need that aim to combine energy to be developed for engineers, efficiency and seismic upgrade homeowners, and municipalities. in an integrated way in order to

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76 Proceedings from the 2019 UR Europe Conference

Thank you for being part of our ever growing community.

The UR Team

77 Understanding Risk (UR) is an open and global community of over 8,000 experts and practitioners interested and active in the creation, communication, and use of disaster risk information. This vibrant community—a diverse group of people from the private, public, nonprofit, technology, and financial sectors—meets at the UR global forum every two years. Each iteration of the UR Forum has produced new ideas and partnerships that have improved risk information and helped to integrate evidence into policy making and development planning.

This publication captures the experiences, lessons, and best practices in the field discussed at the Understanding Risk Europe Conference, held in Bucharest, Romania, from November 27 to November 29, 2019.

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