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River Louros Modeling, Final Report

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River Louros Modeling, Final Report SEVENTH FRAMEWORK PROGRAMME THEME 6: Environment (including Climate Change) Adaptive strategies to Mitigate the Impacts of Climate Change on European Freshwater Ecosystems Collaborative Project (large-scale integrating project) Grant Agreement 244121 Duration: February 1st, 2010–January 31st, 2014 Deliverable 5.4 River Louros modeling, final report Lead contractor: URead Other contractors involved: UPatras Due date of deliverable: Month 48 Actual submission date: Month 48 Work package: 5 Contributors: Martin Erlandsson, Andrew Wade, Yaron Herschkowitz, Christina Papadaki, Paraskevi Manolaki, Eva Papastergiadou Estimated person months: 12 TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT. .......................................................................................................................................................... 4 1. BACKGROUND ......................................................................................................................................... 5 1.1. SITE DESCRIPTION ........................................................................................................................................ 5 1.2. AVAILABLE FLOW AND CHEMISTRY DATA .................................................................................................... 7 1.2.1. Flow data ............................................................................................................................................. 7 1.2.2. Chemistry data ..................................................................................................................................... 7 1.3. INITIAL DATA EXPLORATION ........................................................................................................................ 8 1.3.1. Mean nutrient levels ............................................................................................................................ 9 1.3.2. Seasonal variability for nitrate .......................................................................................................... 10 1.3.3. Seasonal variability for phosphate .................................................................................................... 11 1.3.4. Flow-concentration relationship for nitrate ...................................................................................... 11 1.3.5. Flow-concentration relationship for phosphate ................................................................................ 11 1.3.6. Spatial variability of nutrients along the river profile ....................................................................... 12 2. MODEL SETUP ....................................................................................................................................... 14 2.1. DEFINING CATCHMENT AND SUBCATCHMENTS BOUNDARIES ..................................................................... 14 2.2. METEOROLOGICAL DATA ........................................................................................................................... 15 2.3. LAND COVER CLASSES ................................................................................................................................ 16 2.4. CROPS, FERTILISERS AND IRRIGATION DEMANDS ........................................................................................ 17 2.5. NITROGEN DEPOSITION ............................................................................................................................... 21 3. MODEL CALIBRATIONS ...................................................................................................................... 21 3.1. HYDROLOGY (PERSIST) ........................................................................................................................... 21 3.2. NITROGEN MODELLING (INCA-N WITH PERSIST) .................................................................................... 23 3.3. PHOSPHOROUS MODELLING (INCA-P) ............................................................ ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. 4. MODEL TESTING ................................................................................................................................... 28 5. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS ...................................................................................................................... 28 6. DEFINING CLIMATE AND LAND USE SCENARIOS ......................................................................... 29 6.1. METEOROLOGICAL DATA ........................................................................................................................... 29 6.2. LAND USE SCENARIOS ................................................................................................................................ 30 6.3. MODEL SCENARIOS .................................................................................................................................... 31 7. RESULTS FROM CLIMATE AND LAND USE SCENARIOS .............................................................. 31 7.1. HYDROLOGY .............................................................................................................................................. 31 7.2. NITROGEN .................................................................................................................................................. 32 7.3. PHOSPHORUS .............................................................................................................................................. 33 7.4. CONCLUSIONS FROM THE CLIMATE AND LAND USE SCENARIOS .................................................................. 34 7.5. CLASSIFICATION OF ECOLOGICAL STATUS .................................................................................................. 34 8. MITIGATION MEASURES..................................................................................................................... 35 8.1. DECRIPTIONS OF MITIGATION MEASURES ................................................................................................... 35 8.2. EFFECTS ON NITROGEN ............................................................................................................................... 36 8.3. EFFECTS ON PHOSPHORUS .......................................................................................................................... 37 9. ASSESSMENT OF BIOLOGICAL STATUS .......................................................................................... 37 9.1. AVAILABLE DATA AND CALCULATION OF MACROPHYTE INDEX ................................................................. 37 9.2. CLASSIFICATION OF BIOLOGICAL STATUS ................................................................................................... 39 9.3. RELATIONSHIP WITH PHYSIOCHEMICAL VARIABLES ................................................................................... 40 9.4. ANTICIPATED CLIMATE EFFECTS ON ECOLOGY ........................................................................................... 43 2 10. CONCLUSIONS ..................................................................................................................................... 43 10.1. AVAILABLE AND REQUIRED DATA ............................................................................................................ 43 10.2. HYDROLOGY ............................................................................................................................................ 44 10.3. NITROGEN ................................................................................................................................................ 44 10.4 PHOSPHORUS ............................................................................................................................................. 45 10.5. IMPACTS FROM CLIMATE .......................................................................................................................... 45 10.6. IMPACTS FROM LAND COVER SCENARIOS AND MITIGATION MEASURES .................................................... 45 10.7. OTHER PRESSURES ON ECOLOGY .............................................................................................................. 46 10. REFERENCES ........................................................................................................................................ 45 3 Abstract The Louros river is a medium-sized river (catchment size ≈900 km2) situated near the west coast of mainland Greece in a mountainous setting. The catchment is largely rural and relatively sparsely populated, dominated by mountainous shrubland, but with considerable areas of arable land in the lowland plain. The area is wet by Mediterranean standards, with an average annual precipitation up to 1300 mm in the higher parts. The Louros river has been highlighted as vulnerable for eutrophication in previous reports and publications, although records of observed data are very ambiguous. This study aimed to calibrate the hydrological and hydrochemical models of PERSiST, INCA-N with PERSiST and INCA-P with PERSiST, to simulate future hydrology, nitrogen and phosphorus under a number of different climate and land use scenarios. The models were calibrated for the period of 2001-2012. Thereafter, stream-flow, nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations were simulated for the baseline period of 1981-2010, and for the scenario period of 2031-2060, using three alternative climate models and four different land use scenarios. Shortage of data proved
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