The Future of Urban Mobility

Towards networked, multimodal cities of 2050

Your innovation. Our dedication. Since 1886.

Your innovation. Our dedication. Since 1886. Content

1 Executive summary 3

2 Study design: comprehensive scope and approach 4

3 Burning platform: urban mobility systems on their way to breakdown 6

4 Urban mobility futures: solutions and technologies waiting for deployment 8

5 Shaping the future: towards networked, multimodal urban mobility systems 10

Authors:

Wilhelm Lerner Director Germany Strategy and Organization Practice

Additional author is the Global Future of Urban Mobility Lab Team Salman Ali, Ralf Baron, Antoine Doyon, Boris Herzog, Daniel Koob, Oleksii Korniichuk, Stefan Lippautz, Kiyoung Song, Michael Zintel 1. Executive summary

Management consultancy Arthur D. Little’s (ADL) new global study of urban mobility assesses the mobility maturity and performance of 66 cities worldwide and finds most not just falling well short of best practice but in a state of crisis. Indeed it is not putting it too stron- gly to say that many cities’ mobility systems are standing on a burning platform and if action is not taken in the very near future they will play a major role in slowing the growth and development of their host nations.

What is needed is innovative change. This report highlights what is holding them back, showcases best practice and identifies three strategic impera- tives for cities and three clusters of future business models for mobility suppliers that will enable cities to meet the urban mobility challenge.

3 The Future of Urban Mobility

Methodology Where are we now? ■■ North America: A slightly below Arthur D. Little assessed the mobility Rated on a scale of 1-100 (with 100 average performance – but way below maturity and performance of 66 cities representing the top performance) the Western Europe – with 62.0 points. worldwide using 11 criteria ranging average score was close to 65 (64.4 Just Boston, with 76.2 points scores from public transport’s share of the points). Which means that, on average, highly, while Atlanta has only 46.2 modal mix and the number of cars the 66 cities achieve just two thirds of points, making it the worst performing per capita to average travel speed and the level of performance that could po- city surveyed. transport-related CO2 emissions. The tentially be reached today by applying mobility score per city ranges from best practice across all operations.Only ■■ South America: Average perfor- 0 to 100 index points; the maximum two cities (Hong Kong and Amsterdam) mance, just ahead of North America of 100 points is defined by the best scored above 80 points, with just 15% with 63.6 points. Mexico City leads the performance of any city in the sample of cities scoring above 75 points. way with 65.7 index points closely follo- for each criteria. In addition the study There are big differences between wed by Buenos Aires (65.3) and reviewed and analysed 39 key urban the top and low-end performers in the São Paulo (59.7). mobility technologies and 36 potential various regions. urban mobility business models. ■■ Asia / Pacific: The broadest range in ■■ Western Europe: Overall best performance – from Hong Kong, which Plotting the trend regional performance with an average with 81.9 points tops the global table, The world’s population is increasingly of 71.4 points, with seven out of the down to Manila with 48.4 points. This city-based; 51% or 3.5 billion people 18 analysed cities scoring above 75 gives an average of 62.5 points. currently live in urban areas and by 2050 this is expected to reach 70% of the population or 6.3 billion people. Urban mobility is one of the toughest challenges that cities face; accordingly, we will see massive investment in the future. Today, 64% of all travel kilomet- res made are urban and the amount of travel within urban areas is expected to triple by 2050. Being able to get around urban areas quickly, conveniently and with little environmental impact is criti- cal to their success.

Existing mobility systems are close to breakdown. By 2050, the average time an urban dweller spends in traffic jams will be 106 hours per year, three times more than today. Delivering urban mobi- points. Amsterdam (81.2) and London ■■ Middle East / Africa: The lowest lity will require more and more resour- (78.5 points) lead the way, while Rome performing region with an average of ces. In 2050 urban mobility will: (57.9 points) and Athens (53.3) are the 54.4 points. Dubai (58.0) comes top and worst performing cities. Tehran bottom with 47.7 points. ■■ Cost €829bn per year across the globe, more than four times higher than ■■ Eastern / Southeastern Europe: What is holding back change? in 1990. Most cities performed close to the There are clearly sufficient available regional average of 64.0 points. Only solutions to meet today’s urban mobility ■■ Use 17.3% of the planet’s biocapaci- Istanbul (70.2) comes close to the top challenges. Arthur D. Little identified 39 key ties, which is five times more than in performance cluster and St. Petersburg technologies and 36 potential urban mobility 1990. (56.9 points) is the worst performing business models. However, these solutions city in Eastern / Southeastern Europe. are not being applied comprehensively.

4 The Future of Urban Mobility

Why has the innovation potential not that are owned by 95% of citizens, part tion. Following rigorous analysis of other been unleashed? There is one key rea- of a clear, well-articulated mobility strat- systems that have adopted open and son: the management of urban mobility egy that combines low transport-related innovative approaches to change, we operates globally in an environment emissions with a short average travel have identified three long-term sustai- that is hostile to innovation. Our urban time to work. nable business models for the evolving management systems are overregula- urban mobility ecosystem. ted, they do not allow market players Three strategic imperatives for cities to compete and they do not establish To meet the urban mobility challenge, ■■ The Google of urban mobility: Built business models that bring demand and cities need to implement one of the on a core asset of a user-friendly custo- supply into a natural balance. following three strategies dependent on mer interface, it provides a single point their location and maturity: of access for multimodal mobility and Some will say this is easier said than supplementary services to end consu- done but we need only look at the per- ■■ Network the system: For high per- mers on a large scale to drive uptake. formance of other sectors of the global forming cities the next step must be economy to see that transformative to fully integrate the travel value chain, ■■ The Apple of urban mobility: At the change is possible in a relatively short increasing convenience by aggressively core of this business model are integ- space of time. No example is more vivid extending public transport, implemen- rated mobility services and solutions to than that of the communications sector. ting advanced traffic management the end consumer or cities. Integrated In just two decades, hardware and systems and further reducing individual mobility services for end consumers software innovation coupled with the transport through greater taxation and provide a seamless, multimodal journey road tolls. experience such as public transport interlinked with car and bike sharing. ■■ Rethink the system: Cities in mature Suppliers that target cities provide inte- countries with a high proportion of grated, multimodal mobility solutions on motorised individual transport need to a turnkey basis. fundamentally redesign their mobility systems so that they become more ■■ The Dell of urban mobility: This is a consumer and sustainability orientated. basic offering such as cars or bike sha- This group contains the majority of ring, without integration or networking. cities in North America along with those It can also include disruptive techno- in Southwestern Europe. logical solutions such as transponders that make the Google and Apple models ■■ Establish a sustainable core: For ci- feasible. ties in emerging countries the aim must be to establish a sustainable mobility Arthur D. Little’s contribution to core that can satisfy short-term demand shaping the future of urban mobility at a reasonable cost without creating The current disparate nature of urban motorised systems that need to be mobility systems means that none of rise of the internet has brought about redesigned later. With access to new the individual stakeholders can create what is nothing short of a communica- and emerging transport infrastructure these models alone. Arthur D. Little tions revolution. What we need now is a and technologies these cities have the specialises in linking strategy, techno- mobility revolution. opportunity to become the test bed and logy and innovation, and aims to use breeding ground for tomorrow’s urban its Future Lab as the platform to enable Showcasing success – Hong Kong mobility systems. and facilitate an open dialogue between Successful cities, such as Hong Kong, urban mobility stakeholders. have a well-balanced split between Three future business models for different forms of transport that move mobility suppliers people away from individual motorised Having grasped the scale of the looming transport. In Hong Kong, travel is integ- crisis in the urban mobility sector, Arthur rated through multimodal mobility cards D. Little set about researching a solu­

5 The Future of Urban Mobility 2. Study design: comprehensive scope and approach

The reform of urban mobility systems Prosperity – This was determined by The Public cluster (see figure 2) totalled is one of the biggest challenges con- the GDP per capita as of 2008, with 48 cities and the Individual one just 18. fronting policymakers, stakeholders those having a GDP per capita of more Each city’s profile was further refined and users today and to do it justice than US$25,000 defined as ‘mature’ with the addition of information relating the study required a commensurately and those below that level defined as to population growth and density. Cities ambitious approach. Our researchers ‘emerging’. were identified as having more or less worked on six of the seven continents than 0.5% population growth and a den- to study the status quo, from Atlanta Modal split – This indicator was applied sity of more or less than 7,000 people to Lagos, Lahore to Zurich. A vast by assessing the respective shares of indi- per square km. amount of data was accumulated to vidual motorised mobility, public transport enable us to divide the cities under and walking/cycling. Cities with less than ADL’s analysis revealed wildly divergent scrutiny into clusters and thus propose 50% of individual travel were categorised performances but one thing all clusters different ways forward for cities at as ‘public mobility oriented cities’ and have in common is that they need to different stages of development. In those with more classed as ‘individual innovate to improve their performance. addition, we reviewed in depth a vast mobility cities’. number of business models and tech- 1A – Public, small, mature – nologies that are required to enable City size – This was determined by the Vienna-type the way towards high performance population of the city agglomerations as Cities in this category had the fewest urban mobility systems. of 2010. Cities with more than 5 million transport-related fatalities and the residents were defined as ‘large’ and shortest mean travel time to work as 2.1 Urban mobility clusters those below, ‘small’. a relatively high take-up of safe public The urban mobility study was conducted in transport options such as buses and 66 cities around the globe, a sample consis- These indicators led to the categorisation trains meant there were fewer cars on ting of the 50 largest cities in the world as of eight different clusters divided into two the road and so the rate of accidents measured by population and by regional GDP broad groups, membership of which was and congestion was reduced. They share as well as another 16 Arthur D. Little allocated on the basis of whether their performed poorly, however, in terms of focus cities (see figure 1). modality split was ‘public’ or ‘individual’. the number of shared bikes and need to increase the proportion of people who walk or cycle. Figure 1: Study scope Region Americas Europe, Middle East & Africa Asia Case study

North America Europe Asia Vienna – The Austrian capital has one New York Dallas Istanbul Barcelona Tokyo Osaka Los Angeles Atlanta Moscow Ankara Mumbai Lahore of the highest uses of public transport World’s largest Chicago Houston Paris Berlin Delhi Shenzhen in Europe and a high level of mobility cities determined Miami Boston London Athens Dhaka Chennai by GDP share of Philadelphia Toronto Madrid Lisbon Kolkata Seoul satisfaction among its citizens. Howe- region and Washington, D.C. Saint Petersburg Shanghai Bangalore population Karachi Wuhan ver, it falls down badly when it comes to

Latin America Africa Middle East Manila Tianjin Beijing Hyderabad multimodal mobility cards, where it has Mexico City São Paulo Kinshasa Tehran Jakarta Bangkok Buenos Aires Lagos Baghdad Guangzhou zero penetration. Car and bike sharing Amsterdam Frankfurt Hong Kong are other areas that need improvement Brussels Cambridge Kuala Lumpur Additional Stockholm Goteborg Singapore as Vienna has a very low rate of car Arthur D. Little Vienna Milan sharing and 703 shared bikes per million focus cities Zurich Prague Rome Munich citizens. Dubai

Source: Arthur D. Little 1B – Public, large, mature – These were then split into clusters Thus 1A was ‘Public, small and mature’, Hong Kong-type based on their level of prosperity, while 1D was ‘Public, large and emer- Transport-related CO2 emissions and modal split of total number of journies ging’. In the same way, 2A was ‘Indi- fatalities are the areas where this clus- in them and their population. vidual, small and mature’ and 2D was ter performs well but it did badly when ‘Individual, large and emerging’. it came to innovative mobility sharing practices such as car sharing.

6 The Future of Urban Mobility

Figure 2: City clusters “Vienna – type” “Hong Kong – type” “Beijing – type” Case study 1A 1B 1C Public, small, mature Public, large, mature Public, large, emerging Hong Kong – stands at the very pin- Lisbon Frankfurt New York Seoul Jakarta Lahore Bangalore nacle. Despite – or perhaps because Stockholm Vienna Osaka Buenos Aires São Paulo Kinshasa Kolkata Guangzhou Beijing Mexico City Berlin Prague Moscow Barcelona Lagos of – being one of the most densely po- Bombay Karachi Zurich Amsterdam Hong Kong Madrid Delhi pulated areas in the world, with a land Manila Istanbul Singapore Saint Petersburg Tokyo Hyderabad Chennai Shanghai mass of just 1,100 sq km, Hong Kong Boston London Ankara Dhaka Wuhan Bangkok Munich Paris has developed a highly networked, Tianjin Shenzhen Tehran “Rome – type” “Los Angeles – type” “Kuala Lumpur – type” multimodal mobility system. Smart 2A 2B 2C Individual, small, mature Individual, large, mature Individual, large, emerging card penetrations stands at a remar- Houston Brussels Los Angeles Kuala Lumpur Baghdad kable 2.9 cards per citizen, while car Atlanta Rome Chicago registrations, transport-related fatalities Dallas Cambridge Toronto Washington Goteborg Philadelphia and CO2 emissions are all among the Dubai Milan Miami lowest in the survey. Athens

Population growth > 0,5% p.a. Population growth < = 0,5% p.a. Density > 7.000 people/ km2 Density < = 7.000 people/ km2 1C – Public, large, emerging – Beijing-type This category includes both Indian and number of cars registered per citizen Case study African cities with underdeveloped mo- and the level of transport-related CO2 Toronto – The Canadian capital comes bility dominated by walking and three- emissions. top of its cluster for ‘Satisfaction with wheelers to others with fast-increasing transport’ and its level of transport- levels of income and car ownership such Case study related fatalities. But it has negligible as Beijing and Shanghai. Both groups Atlanta – In a nation of car lovers, the penetration of smart cards, high carbon need to be more innovative in their ap- capital of the southern US state of Geor- emissions and cycling and walking proach to a growing crisis by promoting gia bows to no one in its enthusiasm for account for just 6% of the modal split. sharing and multimodal concepts. the automobile. In the modal split, the car accounts for an extraordinary 95% 2C – Individual, large, emerging – Case study of journeys. This means that Atlanta’s Kuala Lumpur-type Bejing – Traffic congestion is endemic in CO2 emissions are off the scale at 7.5 Carbon emissions are where this cluster the Chinese capital as car registrations tonnes per capita, compared with 0.5 performs best but it also has the highest proceed apace. Indeed, car ownership is tonnes in Asia and 1.1 tonnes in Europe. rate of transport-related fatalities of all growing at a compound annual growth Meanwhile its transport-related fatali- the clusters and performs poorly when rate (CAGR) of no less than 12%. Two of ties level is even higher than Beijing’s at it comes to sharing options. the effects of this are a mean travel time 83 per million. It has an urgent need to to work of 52 minutes, almost twice fund and promote public transport if it Case study that of Vienna, and 68 transport-related is to achieve a sustainable mobility sys- Baghdad –The capital of Iraq – has deaths per million, more than eight tem. As existing journey-to-work times no clear mobility strategy, no car times the rate in the Austrian capital. are extremely low at 26.6 minutes, and bike sharing systems as well as In these circumstances there is a this will be a major challenge for policy no smart transit cards. The city has pressing need for draconian restrictions makers. enormously high transport related on car use, including limitations on car CO2 emissions per capita compared registrations, car-free days, and banning 2B – Individual, large, mature – Los to other cities in Africa and Middle car commuters in the rush hour. Angeles-type East: About 1.55 tones. It is caused Citizens profess a high degree of by a very high number of vehicles 2A – Individual, small, mature – satisfaction with their transport options registered (0.55 per capita) and low Rome-type in this cluster and can point to a good ecological standards in the city. While this cluster performed best in record on fatalities and CO2 emissions. terms of mean travel time to work, this But, again, there is more to be done, was achieved at some cost to the envi- particularly involving mobility innovations ronment and there is a pressing need such as sharing options and the penetra- for its member cities to reduce the tion of smart cards.

7 The Future of Urban Mobility

2.2 Urban mobility demand, business fined by the best and worst performance Next we did desk and field research to models and supporting technologies of the 66 cities. The point scales add up to score each of the 66 cities on the Urban ADL analysed all three areas in depth: a maximum of 100 points on all indicators Mobility Index. We used the scoring Demand – We selected use cases for combined (i.e. if a city achieves the maxi- results to identify common characteris- mature markets and emerging markets mum score on each of the 11 indicators, it tics and factors explaining differences in and identified general characteristics, will have an index score of 100). performance for each of the six clusters. mobility demand and implications for solution providers in each case. Figure 3: Definition of urban mobility index indicators Urban Mobility Index Indicator Definition Business Models – The study identified Mobility maturity business models in four sectors: Trans- max 32.5 points port, Infrastructure, Traffic Management Share of public transport,  Best (7.5) and Information, Planning and Payment, walking/cycling in modal split  Worst (0) plus Integration, which straddles these. [%] MAX 7.5 POINTS These were then assessed for their level of maturity: introduction, growth, maturi- Mobility strategy/ vision cumulative  Alternative engines 2 ty or decline and allocated to clusters.  Sustainability 2 MAX 10 POINTS  Multimodality 2  Infrastructure 2 Technologies – We looked at four sec-  Restrictions 2 tors (as above) and identified the most Car sharing performance  No sharing system (0) suitable technologies for each sector  Introduction planned for 2011 (1) before assessing them for their level of MAX 5 POINTS  < 50 vehicles/ million citizens (2)  51-100 vehicles/ million citizens (3) maturity and identified as being at one  101-200 vehicles/ million citizens (4) of four stages  > 201 vehicles/ million citizens (5) Number of shared bikes  0 = no sharing system 2.3 Urban Mobility Index per million citizens  1 = < = 100 bikes/ million citizens  The Arthur D. Little Urban Mobility Index 2 = 101-500 bikes/ million citizens  3 = 501-1000 bikes/ million citizens (see figure 3) aggregates the position of MAX 5 POINTS  4 = 1001-5000 bikes/ million citizens a city on 11 indicators. The first five indi-  5 = > 5001 bikes/ million citizens cators measure mobility maturity: vision Penetration of  0 = no smart transit card and strategy for future mobility, number smart cards  1 = < 0.1cards/ capita  2 = 0.1-0.25 cards/ capita of shared cars per capita, number of MAX 5 POINTS  3 = 0.25-0.5 cards/ capita shared bikes per capita, penetration  4 = 0.5-1 cards/ capita  5 = > 1 cards /capita rate of smartcards and share of public Mobility performance transport and walking and cycling in the max 67.5 points modal split. Transport related fatalities  Lowest (15) per million citizens  Highest (0) The second range of indicators measures MAX 15 POINTS mobility performance, i.e. the degree to Transport related CO2  Lowest (7.5) emissions [kg per capita]  Highest (0) which mobility-related goals are fulfilled MAX 15 POINTS in an effective and efficient manner: Vehicles registered  Lowest (7.5) average travel speed in the city with all per citizen  Highest (0) modes of transport, mean travel time to MAX 7.5 POINTS work, number of fatalities per inhabitant, Average travel speed [km/h]  Best (7.5) MAX 7.5 POINTS  Worst (0) transport-related CO2 emissions per capita, number of vehicles registered per Satisfaction with transport  Average of 3 ADL intern expert opinions [points]  Additional interviews for verification citizen and inhabitant satisfaction with MAX 15 POINTS mobility in the city. For each indicator we Mean travel time to work  Shortest (7.5) defined a point scale, with the maximum [minutes]  Longest (0) and minimum end of the scale being de- MAX 7.5 POINTS

8 The Future of Urban Mobility 3. Urban mobility systems on their way to breakdown

Some storms that beset the global Urban and rural population 2010-2050 [m people; %] economy are wholly unexpected but the end game in the looming crisis over urban mobility is eminently pre- 9.202 dictable. At its root is our old friend 8.202 the Malthusian Devil. With the Earth’s 30% Rural CAGR 2010-50 population set to grow by just under 6.831 -0,4% p. a. 39% a third in the next 40 years, already creaking transport systems in our 49% mushrooming cities will come under Urban intolerable strain. In such a context 70% CAGR 2010-50 innovation is crucial and yet our re- 61% + 1,5% p. a. searches show that, instead of being 51% championed, innovative approaches are all too often stifled. Figure 4: 2010 2030 2050 Development of urban 3.1 Relevance of urban mobility and rural population The population of the world is set to Source: UN Population Division, Arthur D. Little Lab grow from 7 billion today to 9.2 billion by 2050 and this presents intimidating chal- lenges in a range of diverse spheres, 3.2 Triple bottom line impact of urban This is why, when it comes to perfor- from food production to climate change. mobility systems mance, the study focuses on the three But, as this growth will be accompanied If current trends continue, urban mobi- dimensions of sustainability: people, by an exodus from the countryside to lity systems are going to break down planet and profit. cities, there are few issues set to be- spectacularly and exact a heavy toll. come more thorny than the provision of The so-called triple bottom line – peop- Planet – We have a duty as citizens not urban transport. Indeed, the proportion le, planet, profit – could suffer a serious to compromise the next generation’s of the global population living in cities blow. For example, a US citizen by 2050 opportunities to make their living on is expected to rise from 51% in 2010 to will on average suffer some 100 hours planet Earth and yet, without careful 70% by 2050 (see figure 4). As existing of congestion-related delays a year, planning, mobility systems will remain urban mobility systems are already which is triple the number in 1990. major generators of greenhouse gases facing breakdown in many regions, this 17.3% of the planet’s bio-capacities will and thus significant contributors to presents a problem of crisis proportions be needed to make urban mobility pos- climate change. In addition they will for policymakers worldwide. sible in 2050, which is five times more deprive other sectors of energy supplies than in 1990. And annual investment in and cause air and noise pollution. The problem is exacerbated by the fact urban mobility will have to quadruple to that city workers are responsible for some €829bn worldwide by 2050. People – Our systems and technologies creating a disproportionate amount of have to serve people to a broad extent. global GDP. By 2025, their contribution Hand-in-hand (see figure 5) with this As the world’s population grows and is expected to total 86%. In such a change will come a massively incre- more and more people migrate to the context, it is vital that urban residents ased demand for energy and raw cities, urban mobility systems will come are in a position to move around freely. materials. Given this, sustainability will under growing strain, with congestion And yet – while urban mobility currently become an increasingly key factor in increasing and travel speeds declining. accounts for 64% of overall mobility – it the way the urban mobility systems Unless the modality split can be shifted is expected to almost triple between of the future are desig-ned – and that in favour of public transport and walking/ now and 2050, with the result that the means environmentally friendly mass cycling accidents and fatalities will average time a citizen will spend trap- transit must win out over individual increase. ped in traffic congestion could also triple motorised transport. Profit – Whatever we propose must – to 106 hours a year. match the principles of good manage- ment. It is forecast that annual spending

9 The Future of Urban Mobility

Figure 5: Triple bottom line impact of urban mobility

Ecological footprint urban mobility Delay hours due to congestions p.a. Urban mobility investment need p.a. 3.3 Overal-Performance of urban

% of planet Earth Delay hours mobility systems bn EUR 17,3% 18% 120 106,3 900 829 Rated on a scale of 1-100 (with 100 14,2% 15% 91,5 800 665 11,4% 90 78,8 700 representing the top performance) the 12% 67,8 600 534 8,9% 58,4 500 429 average score of the cities surveyed 9% 60 50,9 6,7% 400 324 5,0% 6% 300 245 was close to 65 (64.4 points). This 32,5 30 200 3% 3,7% 185 means that, on average, the 66 cities 100 0% 0 0 achieve just two thirds of the level of 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Source: Stockholm Environment Institute, US Census Bureau, UN Population Division, Schäfer/ Victor 2000, Siemens, Bureau of Transport Statistics, performance that could potentially be Arthur D. Little reached today by applying best practice across all operations. on urban mobility – including infrastruc- ■■ Environmentally compatible business ture – will have to rise to €829bn per Only two cities (Hong Kong and Ams- annum by 2050, more than four times ■■ Sustainable communities and a high terdam) scored above 80 points, with the figure in 1990. And yet its services quality of life just 15% of cities scoring above 75 must remain affordable for all citizens. points (see figure 6). ■■ Social investments and an equitable These dimensions work together to con- economic system The analysis reveals a number of remar- struct a triple bottom line of benefits: kable results. First, there is a clear cor- relation between the use of innovative mobility concepts on the one hand and Figure 6: Urban mobility ranking

-> Wird von Nougat Design neu gemacht

Global Average 64.4 15% Above average performance Hong Kong Hong Boston Munich Wien (Vienna) Singapore Paris Gothenburg Stockholm London Amsterdam 64%

Sample average

Average performance 21%

Below average performance

45 55 65 75 80 Urban Mobility Performance Index

Source: Arthur D. Little Mobility Index; xx% : share of cities in this performance cluster; 100 index points for city that would achieve best performance which is achieved today on each performance criteria

10 The Future of Urban Mobility

mobility effectiveness and efficiency on Second, the average score achieved by one and the same contactless payment the other hand. Cities that promote wal- the 66 cities in the sample is 65 points card across transport modes – but king, cycling, bike sharing, car sharing (64.4) and only 15% of the cities score lags in terms of car and bike sharing. and smart mobility cards as part of an above 75 points. In other words, the In other words, a near-perfect mobility integrated mobility vision and strategy average city achieves only two thirds of system does not yet exist in the world do reduce travel times, fatal accidents what is possible today by applying best today and full satisfaction with urban and carbon emissions. All of the top ten practice across all operations and only transport is not observed in any of the performing cities have a strong focus ten cities perform in the highest quartile cities studied (see figure 7). on public transport, walking and cycling, possible today. This analysis indicates with individual motorised mobility usu- the significant performance-improve- Fourth, city size does not have a signi- ally commanding less than half of the ment potential cities have and highlights ficant influence on the mobility score. modal split. the urgent need for cities to address the For example, the small cities of Rome urban mobility challenge proactively. and Athens have much lower scores As the following chart shows, cities that (57.9 and 53.3 respectively) than the are above average in terms of mobile Third, even for cities that score highest, large cities of London and Madrid (78.5 maturity are characterised by high levels namely Hong Kong (81.9) and Amster- and 71.8 respectively). However, the of public transport use and walking and dam (81.2), the scope for improving to- two other city characteristics that we cycling; car and bike sharing; and pene- ward the maximum score of 100 is still studied, namely city prosperity and the tration of smart cards. They also have a significant. Hong Kong, for example, prevalence of public transport (‘modal coherent mobility strategy. scores very high in terms of smartcard split’), do have a significant influence penetration – allowing people to use on the mobility score. The richer the Figure 7: Top ten city index performance

City capita] citizens citizens [points] emissions [kg emissions per citizen per

per capita] per Car sharing Car sharing 2 performance performance speed [km/h] speed vision [points] vision Penetration of Penetration Average travel travel Average work [minutes] work modal split [%]split modal bikes per million million per bikes Satisfaction with with Satisfaction Transport related related Transport related Transport transport [points] transport Mobility strategy/ strategy/ Mobility Number of shared Number CO Vehicles registered registered Vehicles + cycl. in walking/ Share pubic transp. pubic Share fatalities per million million per fatalities Mean travel time to time travel Mean smart cards [cards / cards [cards / smart

1 Hong Kong 84% 10 1 0.0 2.9 23.0 378 0.08 25,1 12 39,0

2 Amsterdam 56% 10 5 305.1 1.0 27.0 1100 0.40 34,0 13 22,0

3 London 62% 10 5 695.1 2.3 39.0 1050 0.40 17,7 14 44,1

4 Stockholm 54% 10 4 1944.9 0.2 21.0 1430 0.40 28,6 13 29,1

5 Goteborg 48% 9 5 1220.4 0.6 48.0 1800 0.41 24,0 13 18,7

6 Singapore 55% 9 5 0.0 2.0 47.0 900 0.10 26,9 8 36,0

7 Vienna 69% 9 3 703.6 0.0 16.0 1250 0.39 26,7 13 27,6

8 Paris 56% 10 5 1964.7 0.2 91.0 950 0.39 31,0 14 35,0

9 Munich 63% 8 5 926.4 0.0 22.2 1390 0.42 32,0 14 30,2

10 Boston 55% 8 4 132.8 1.4 23.0 1028 0.63 29,0 12 30,4

Source: Arthur D. Little Mobility Index

11 The Future of Urban Mobility

city and the lower the share of individual Regional performance the worst performing city surveyed. transport, the higher the score. ■■ There are big differences between the top and low-end performers in various ■■ South America: Average perfor- Fifth, cities in mature regions are not regions (see figure 9). mance, just ahead of North America necessarily a model that cities in emer- with 63.6 points. Mexico City leads ging regions should aspire to emulate. ■■ Western Europe: Overall best regio- the way with 65.7 index points closely Many of the former, such as Tokyo, nal performance with average of 71.4 followed by Buenos Aires (65.3) and São Prague, Moscow, Atlanta and Miami, points and seven out of the 18 ana- Paulo (59.7). still do not appear to have a vision and lysed cities scoring above 75 points. documented strategies that clearly arti- Amsterdam (81.2) and London (78.5 ■■ Asia / Pacific: The broadest range in culate what they want their future mo- points) lead the way – while Rome performance – from Hong Kong, which bility systems to look like. Furthermore, (57.9 points) and Athens (53.3) are the with 81.9 points tops the global table if cities in emerging regions replicate worst performing cities. down to Manila with 48.4 points. This the pathway that cities in mature regions gives an average of 62.5 points. have followed, they run the risk of intro- ■■ Eastern / Southeastern Europe: ducing the very same problems of poor An average performance from all cities ■■ Middle East / Africa: The lowest modal split, high carbon emissions and in the region with an average of 64.0 performing region with an average of low travel speed. US cities in particular points. Only Istanbul (70.2) comes 54.4 points. Dubai (58.0) comes top and tend to score low, as their modal split close to the top performance cluster Teheran bottom with 47.7 points. is heavily biased toward cars and their and St. Petersburg (56.9 points) is the carbon emissions are a multiple of worst performing city in Eastern / 3.4 Innovation hostility of urban those in Europe (see figure 8). Southeastern Europe. mobility systems While poor, let alone deteriorating, urban ■■ North America: A slightly below ave- mobility is a source of daily frustration to rage performance, way below Western citizens, businesses and governments Europe with 62.0 points. Just Boston, alike, many people are resigned to see it with 76.2 points scores highly, while as an inescapable consequence of econo- Atlanta has only 46.2 points, making it mic development and wealth creation.

1.0 1,25x 2,0x 5,0x 60,2 Share of public transport, walking / cycling in 49,5 modals split [%] 63,1

Mobility strategy/ vision [points] 5,9 7,6 9,3

Car sharing performance [points] 0,6 1,8 4.2

789 17 Number shared bikes per million citizens 347 Mobility maturity Mobility Penetration of smart cards [cards / capita] 0,1 0,3 1,1

Transport related fatalities per million citizens* 112 62 31

1225 1709 Transport related CO2 emissions [kg/ capita]* 1128

0,35 Vehicles registered per citizen 0,35 0,5 23,0 27,5 Average travel speed [km/h] 22,6

Satisfaction with transport [points] 6,3 9,1 11,8 Mobility performance Mobility Mean travel time to work [minutes]* 44,8 38,6 31,2

Source: Arthur D. Little Mobility Index Below average cities Average cities Above average cities * inverted scale

12 The Future of Urban Mobility

But urban mobility need not be an intrac- 1. Lack of a collaborative platform. table problem. Solutions to address the Diverse stakeholders are failing to work pressing mobility challenges are widely together. available. This appears clearly from the progress the top-performing cities such as 2. Absence of vision. Leaders of the Hong Kong, Amsterdam and London are relevant stakeholder groups have not for- making. It also appears from our compre- mulated a common vision for the mobility hensive review of 39 technologies and 36 concept. urban mobility business models. Some of these technologies are fairly mature (think 3. Lack of focus on customer needs. All of electronic tolling, advanced parking too often mobility systems are run for the systems, the automatic monorail, the convenience of their operators rather than Segway…), while others are still in the consumers. embryonic phase (think of access to the CAN communication network in a car, 4. Inadequate competition. Services the automated car, the solar roadway, the have a tendency to decline unless there straddling train…). is meaningful competition between opera- tors for the custom of travellers. Likewise some business models are mature (e.g. bike rental), while others are embryonic (e.g. cargo pipelines). If the availability of good-practice examp- les, technology and business models is not the bottleneck, what then is holding back resolution of the mobility challenge? Our study reveals that the root cause of the performance gap is the aversion to innovation within the urban mobility system. By ‘system’ we mean groups of stakeholders, the relationships between these, the rules and incentives that govern their behaviour, and the assets and capabilities through which they seek to achieve their objectives.

Current mobility systems adapt poorly to changing demands, are weak in com- bining single steps of the travel chain into an integrated offering, find it difficult to learn from other systems, and shun an open, competitive environment. Collabo- ration on solutions is rare. Rewards for investors are rather meagre.

This is a pretty damning verdict, but it also shows the road to redemption because it highlights four key shortcomings mobi- lity stakeholders will need to address to enable the emergence of innovative and effective mobility concepts:

13 The Future of Urban Mobility

Urban Mobility “Vienna – “Hong Kong – “Beijing – “Rome – “Los Angeles – “Kuala Lumpur – Lifestyle A type” B type” C type” D type” E type” F type”

Greenovator

Family Cruiser

Silver Driver

High-frequency Commuter

Jet Setter

Sensation Seeker

Low-end mobility

Basic

Smart Basic

Premium

Source: Arthur D. Little

14 The Future of Urban Mobility

15 The Future of Urban Mobility 4. Urban mobility futures: solutions and technologies waiting for deployment

Figure 10: Urban mobility demand pattern

Urban Mobility “Vienna – “Hong Kong – “Beijing – “Rome – “Los Angeles – “Kuala Lumpur – Lifestyle 1A type” 1B type” 1C type” 2A type” 2B type” 2C type”

Greenovator

Family Cruiser

Silver Driver

High-frequency Commuter

Jet Setter

Sensation Seeker

Low-end Mobility

Basic

Smart Basic

Premium

Source: Arthur D. Little

Knowing the nature and needs of ADL identified 10 types of urban mobili- takes place in an ever more fragmentary your mobile population is a key first ty users: Greenovators, Family Cruisers, way. The new definition of the con- step to putting in place a networked Silver Drivers, High-Frequency Com- cept of family as a “network of many” solution which will suit all parties. muters, Global Jet Setters, Sensation involves an explosion of needs from Then it becomes a question of iden- Seekers and Low-end Mobility, Basic, everyone involved, resulting from the tifying and executing the appropriate Smart Basic an Premium (see figure desire to balance career, partnerships, modes of transport to avoid the onset 10). In the following we will describe child rearing and individual personality of gridlock. One of the more surpri- selected lifestyles. development. This need for intensive sing results of our study is that many family mobility makes Family Cruisers a solutions and technologies already ■■ Greenovators directly link environ- significant factor for planners in clusters exist but remain unexploited. What mental awareness and a sustainable coping with large urban sprawl such as is needed is an informed openness lifestyle with their quality of life. Restraint ‘Individual, large, mature’, where Los to what is available and the flexibi- in consumption and luxury constitutes an Angeles is a good example. lity and imagination to innovate as essential component of their understan- required. ding of culture and life – obviously with ■■ Silver Drivers are a new generation consequences for mobility consumption. of older people who will become increa- 4.1 Urban mobility demand patterns Greenovators want integrated ecological singly important as a target group in the One of the most difficult challenges mobility concepts that are oriented to- future mobility markets. Silver Drivers facing policymakers in mature markets wards their own personal wellbeing and are not only well off; they are ready to is satisfying the needs of a diverse array the good of society. This makes them spend their money rather than save it. of users. While public transport may suit a significant force in the ‘Public, small, Their battle cry is: “Anyone who saves a single person commuting to and from mature’ cluster and to a slightly lesser is just starving themselves for their work, it may be less convenient for a extent in the ‘Individual, small, mature’ heirs”. This makes them serious players stay-at-home mother juggling the school cluster epitomised by Rome. in clusters incorporating mature cities run, shopping and visiting friends. ■■ The family life of Family Cruisers but largely irrelevant in poorer parts of

16 The Future of Urban Mobility

the world where the shrinking older when travelling. Therefore, means of all sorts but also includes car and bike generation devotes much of its wealth transport must fulfil the functions of sharing schemes. to supporting the population explosion a personal workstation, as well as the among the young. desires for privacy, familiarity and intima- Infrastructure – Business models here cy. All this makes them most at home cover the operators of road and rail ■■ High-Frequency Commuters are in the ‘Public, large, mature’ cluster networks and the services that flow extremely mobile job nomads who are exemplified by Hong Kong and least from them. constantly on their way to visit custo- comfortable in emerging megacities. mers, business partners and temporary Traffic Management – Once the hard- projects. Network-type concepts, which ■■ For Sensation Seekers, cars are the ware has been installed, it has to be combine several mobility services in ultimate objects of experience and in managed and there are operators in a an intelligent way, are required to meet the future will link driving with attributes wide range of sectors. High-Frequency Commuters’ needs. such as freedom, fun and pleasure. To With the help of modern digital networ- fulfil Sensation Seekers’ wishes and Information, Planning and Payment – king possibilities, High-Frequency Com- needs, future concepts should consider This covers journey planning, navigation muters will be able to organise them- cars ever more strongly as third places: and location based services. selves in carpools more spontaneously as refuges between job and home, in and at shorter notice and develop a high which the driver is happy to stay, feels Integration – There is also scope for bo- affinity towards car sharing and short- good, enjoys life, but can also spend dies that straddle two or more of these term rental car offers. Not surprisingly, time sensibly. For Sensation Seekers, categories, such as operators of mobility perhaps, this category of consumer is a cars express their attitude towards life. cards (smart cards) and those involved significant user in the four Mature clus- in multimodal journey planning. ters, and only marginally less of a force The individual demand patterns are of in emerging markets. varying importance for the city clusters Despite the relative maturity of most as can be seen from figure 10. The most of the models in use, there is scope for ■■ High-Frequency Global Jet Setters striking features are the significant role extending the scope of a number of the are people who are regularly en route played by the High-Frequency Commu- growth business models – such as car – quite frequently several times a week ter in all clusters, whether Mature or sharing and traffic management – and – between the major cities of the world. Emerging, Public or Individual, and how the introduction-level ones – notably Pu- Being constantly in transit is not an Greenovators, on the other hand, tend blic Rapid Transit (PRT) and automated exceptional situation for the Global Jet to be of meaningful relevance only in parking garages. Setter; it’s the general rule. As naturally Mature clusters (although they are less as others travel to work in the morning significant in the Americas, where con- Examples of growth-level business by getting into their car or taking the cern over petrol-based carbon emissions models subway, Global Jet Setters jump on tends to be less marked). Traffic management operator planes. For suburban mobility, howe- In the absence of a reduction in road ver, they too cannot get by without car 4.2 Maturity of urban mobility users, one partial solution is to manage solutions. Being in transit on an ongoing business models their progress better (see figure 11). basis intensifies Global Jet Setters’ wish Confronting the challenges of the future Traffic control systems rely on a network to arrive somewhere, to feel at home will often require the adoption of new of detection and enforcement systems, and find tranquillity. Modes of transport business models. The majority of urban which relay their findings to control have to satisfy what Global Jet Setters mobility business models are at the rooms. Personnel there can then predict demand from a “third place”: places growth or maturity stage. We have divi- changes in demand and manage the where one feels at ease and can be ded them into four categories: Transport, load on the network to improve jour- productive, where one can connect the Infrastructure, Traffic Management and ney times. A more efficient use of the practical with the pleasing. Meeting Information, Planning and Payment. infrastructure is also like to lead to safer people, keeping in touch with contacts, journeys and lower emissions. coming up with ideas, learning, and Transport – This naturally encompasses Key partners in such schemes are likely being creative – all this is becoming ever everything from buses and rail services to include the highway authority, city more important for Global Jet Setters to car and van rental and taxi services of and/or national government, data provi-

17 The Future of Urban Mobility

ders, ICT providers and civil engineering Smart transit card spaces and contributing to a reduction in companies. These would work in close A mass market, multimodal proposition, the company’s carbon footprint. cooperation with the emergency servi- this offers the user a highly conveni- ces, vehicle recovery organisations and ent, cash-free way of accessing a large Examples of introduction-level enforcement agencies. transport network. It may also be made business models more attractive by extending its use to Personal Rapid Transit (PRT) Revenue to cover the cost of the ins- retail outlets and facilities such as car This mode of transport is in its infancy tallation of detection and information parks, libraries and cinemas, etc. but is finding a growing constituency provision systems, control rooms and of customers among airports, busi- enforcement would come mainly from Car sharing (private end-user) ness parks, college campuses and infrastructure owners in the form of a Car sharing services, whereby drivers national parks. periodical management fee and possible hire a vehicle at will rather than invest in variable fees based on the amount of a car of their own, are seen as an eco- It consists of individually hired electric traffic handled or toll revenue raised. nomic and environmentally friendly com- pods carrying two to six passengers There might also be scope for selling on plement to public transport. While they apiece that travel on fixed routes on raw or processed data. are already well established in many guideways. Fully automated, they offer cities around the world, there remains round-the-clock availability and no con- considerable scope for growth. gestion or parking issues.

Car sharing (business internal) Aimed at the mass market, there is This variant on the genre operates as potential for expansion to city centres a closed system within a company. and suburbs and to business customers Instead of each employee making use with large premises who have a demand of their own car, vehicles are shared for freight transportation. among the staff, thus saving on parking

Figure 11: Urban mobility business models

Business model life cycle Introduction Growth Maturity Decline

Waterway Mobility/ smart Hailed shared Railway service Motorbike taxi Vehicle sales rental cards taxi provider service provider

Electric Bus service Loc. based shop- Traffic infra- Car / van rental vehicles rental ping community strstructure provider provider

Personal Rapid Traffic mgmt. Waterway Car sharing (private Motorbike rental Transit end custoemer) operator service provider

Car sharing Railway Autom. parking Navigation Bike rental garage operator (business internal) infrastr.provider Holistic Bike sharing Multimodal Car based taxi Roadway mobility integrator provider journey plann. service provider infrastr. provider Waterway taxi Location based Tolling infrastr. ICT infrastr. service provider info services provider provider

Airway taxi Velo taxi Tolling operator ICT operator service provide

Energy station Parking space operator operator

Single-mode journey plann.

Transport Infrastructure Traffic management Information, planning & payment Integrator

Source: Arthur D. Little

18 The Future of Urban Mobility

The key partners in the development of available parking pod in the multi-storey Transport such networks are the organisation re- structure. It also offers more security This embraces technologies developed sponsible for the hardware – infrastruc- and a lower in-garage accident rate, a for both individual modes of transport ture and vehicles – its maintenance and lower rate of carbon emissions and gre- (the car and two and three-wheeled operation and public transport operators ater convenience as it obviates the need forms of transport) and collective modes or governments. to search for a parking position. such as bus, tram and train.

The major costs of establishing such a A mass-market proposition, it will The future – Hybrid cars are already network are the construction of the gui- particularly appeal to Sensation See- a well-accepted part of the landscape deways and vehicles and running costs kers, Silver Drivers and Jet Setters, and but may other radical new technologies such as electricity and labour. Revenue will be attractive to customers in urban have been launched or are under deve- streams will be passengers paying a areas where parking spaces are limited. lopment that will revolutionise travel in fixed sum per journey or mileage fee, Construction, operating and maintenance the cities of the future. Solar-powered businesses buying freight transportation costs will be offset by parking fees and buses and trains that obviate the need services and local governments offering revenue from additional services, such as to build new tracks by straddling existing subsidies for public transport. cleaning, and on-site advertising. highways are two of the more eye-cat- ching projects in the pipeline. Automated robotic parking 4.3 Maturity of urban mobility With land at a premium in our increasin- technologies gly congested cities, this space-saving A wide range of technologies have been parking solution promises the same developed for both individual and coll- amount of parking as offered by existing ective transport which span the sectors operations in 50% of the land area. Cus- of transport, infrastructure, and traffic tomers leave their car on an automated management and information, planning ‘lift’, which then travels to the nearest and payment (see figure 12).

Figure 12: Urban mobility technologies

Life cycle of urban mobility technologies Introduction Growth Maturity Decline

Automated car Green Wheel Hybrid car

E-Motorbike Automatic parking Segway

E-Vehicle

Hydrogen highway EV charging system Micro-car

Battery switch station Solar roadway ITS pricing system Intelligent speed adaptation Individual

Multimodal planning Coop. avoidance system Advanced parking system

ATMS Can bus access GPS Automatic payment system

Real time info panel

Straddling train PRT Automatic monorail

Solar powered bus Tram-train APS

Solar powered bus station E-Bus Third rail

Advanced ATMS TRIPS Traffic management system

QA RFID C2C Automated fare collection Collective

Collaborative application C2C M-payment C2C

Source: Arthur D. Little; Transport Infrastructure Traffic management Information, planning & payment

19 The Future of Urban Mobility

Case study Management Systems), which draw on Green Wheel – This is a low-cost real time traffic data from cameras and electric propulsion system for bikes speed sensors, are already well esta- currently in development. It is designed blished and have the power to reroute to boost bicycle use in urban areas by traffic and issue DMS (Dynamic Messa- taking some of the perspiration out of ging System) messages to road users. this form of travel. A motor and batte- ISA (Intelligent Speed Adaptation), ries are enclosed in a hub that can be meanwhile, can keep drivers informed installed on any standard bike wheel. of the speed limit operating in their area The battery, designed to be charged and even curtail the speed of the vehicle overnight, can provide up to 25 miles accordingly. of propulsion and – apart from being non-polluting – its carbon footprint is The future – A straddling train that restricted to the emissions produced saves space by running above motor by the electricity production source. highways is one of many ingenious This will be a low-cost solution, which solutions in development. can be retrofitted to existing bikes. Case study Infrastructure Automated Car – Perhaps the most Conventional structures developed for radical development in this area is the the individual user include roads, parking advent of driverless cars that operate facilities and energy supply stations using a combination of sensors, video (whether petrol stations or electric char- cameras and artificial intelligence soft- ging points), while collective transport ware. Google has already successfully is catered for by rail links, stations and lobbied for a change in the law in the US energy supply centres. state of Nevada to allow the passage of driverless cars on state roads as it deve- The future – Electric vehicle (EV) char- lops its own proprietary system. ging systems are becoming increasingly ubiquitous in the developed world but Endless possibilities they may, in time, be joined by hydrogen The results of this study show that there highways, chains of hydrogen-equipped are the business models and technolo- filling stations along roads or motorways, gies to offer a comprehensive toolbox to which will enable cars powered by zero- city planners wrestling with the prob- emission hydrogen fuel cells to be used lems of the future. in large numbers for the first time. Other newcomers will include automatic robotic The public sector must seek to increase parking and solar-powered bus stations. the role of public transport and walking/ cycling in the modal split and improve Case study individual motorised transport by traffic Sun Power Road – US scientists are management measures and thus ensure already at work on prototypes of solar sustainable mobility. panels made of toughened glass so strong that they can be used instead of Operators in the private sector, on the asphalt to pave the nation’s highways. other hand, are under pressure to retain their position in a changing environment, Traffic Management and innovate their business models. Road traffic management has come a long way since the invention of the traffic light. ATMS (Advanced Traffic

20 The Future of Urban Mobility 5. Shaping the future: towards networked, multimodal urban mobility systems

Solving the problem of urban mo- financiers, regulator, city government, business models and types of infrastruc- bility does not require vision alone. users, etc. – leading to a structure that ture. It should enable entry by new play- Stakeholders involved in shaping the enables them to align their shared objec- ers. Where applicable, it should estab- future must collaborate and compete tives and prioritise common initiatives. lish balanced public-private-partnerships as appropriate and never lose sight of within a reliable framework conducive to their customers’ needs. The highest 2. Establish and execute a vision. the provision of competitive services. scoring city in our mobility index, The senior leaders of the stakeholder Hong Kong, relies on a highly integ- groups participating in the platform rated system with a smart card at its should formulate and support a com- heart. It points the way to a highly mon vision for the mobility concept. networked, multimodal future but it is They should assign accountability to worth remembering that, while Hong each player. They should institute the Kong is far ahead of many other ci- willingness and capabilities to improve Platform ties, its score of 81.9 is still well short the concept continuously.

of a perfect 100. Vision 3. Discover and respond to customer 5.1 Key enabler innovation needs. The mobility concept should Mobility stakeholders should joint- be able to adapt to changing demand

ly work on four axes to enable the volumes. It should allow flexible and Source:5.2 Strategic Arthur D. Little imperatives for city emergence of innovative and effective peak-oriented pricing. And it should offer management mobility concepts: seamless multimodal services to users. Broadly speaking, there are three typical models of urban mobility – public, indi- 1. Establish a collaborative platform. 4. Initiate competition. Government vidual and emerging. Each of them has A platform is an agreement between should guard over the working of market specific challenges to solve and address diverse stakeholders – infrastructure and mechanisms that ensure fair competiti- (see figure 13). service providers, technology suppliers, on between different transport modes,

Figure 13: Urban mobility challenges by city cluster

Cluster Planet People Profit Imperative 1A Vienna - type Further decrease share of individual transport in Sustainability – often a goal Sufficient infrastructure Mature cities with high 1B modal split – Be pioneers of master plans; public supply and convenient usage/ mobility budgets; able to of future urban mobility! Hong Kong - type transport less access implement high-end environmentally harmful technologies

2A Rome - type Change mobility culture and system – You are Often most dirtiest cities in High congestion and accident Increasingly attractive polluting strongly an 2B the world (mobility related levels lead to lowering quality markets for infrastructure environment and offer low Los Angeles - type impact), e.g., 7 t CO2/ capita of life providers, due to anticipated quality of life! shift to public transport

1C Beijing - type Do not follow “Western” development path – Weak environmental impact Low satisfaction with mobility Often problems with financing 2C Otherwise you will become due to partially supply esp. in Africa, South- of mobility infrastructure - unsustainable! Kuala Lumpur - type underdeveloped East Asia affordability challenges of infrastructure

Source: Arthur D. Little Lab Note: performance level: good bad

21 The Future of Urban Mobility

Figure 14: Urban mobility strategies

Public – The key here is to improve in Strategic imperative for urban mobility systems terms of sustainability and infrastruc- Establish sustainable Rethink the system Network the system ture. Both point to further efforts to core reduce the role of individual transport

maturity Hongkong solutions in the modal split. Stockholm Boston Features: Individual – Cities in this cluster tend to  innovative thinking Madrid  seamless integration be among the dirtiest and most conges- Washington with “one key” for Lahore citizens ted in the world thanks to a disproportio- Manila Bangalore Dubai  high convenience  sharing concepts … nate reliance on car use. In the interests time of both sustainability and quality of life Emerging Individual Public Networked mobility there is a pressing need to change the Emerging cities with partly Mature cities with high Mature cities with high Integration of all modes to mobility culture. underdeveloped mobility proportion of registered share of public transport / reduce share of individual systems vehicles walking & cycling motorized transport

Emerging – The bad news is that Source: Arthur D. Little Lab infrastructure is underdeveloped and the resources to change this are scarce, reform of such urban clusters is the (score: 74.6). While public transport and but the good news is that there is an most challenging of all as it requires the walking and cycling in Zurich already opportunity to create a mobility system authorities to fundamentally redesign accounts for a 65% share of the modal that does not repeat the errors made in the mobility system and that can only be split – one of the highest values of Mature markets. done by radically reshaping the political Western Europe – it has set its sights agenda to rally support for a public and on further increasing this share. Each of the groups requires a different sustainable mobility system. Once this approach to make them fit for the future has been done, as there are no universal The idea is simple: rail and car sharing – ‘network’, ‘rethink’ and ‘establish a solutions, each city will have to rigorous- are for long distances, public transport sustainable core’ (see figure 14). ly reassess all the building blocks of its and taxis are for in-city travel, and bicyc- system including modes of transport, le and walking are for short distances. 1. Network the system traffic management, transport informati- The public transport provider and com- This solution is best applied to the on and planning and payment systems. panies from diverse industries coopera- mature and top performing cities of Nor- te to develop new offerings, such as car thwestern Europe (plus some selected 3. Establish a sustainable core sharing, mobility cards and shops. centres in North America and Asia Pa- This model is designed for cities in cific), which boast a high penetration of emerging markets that tend to have For example, IG Velo is involved in the public transport. Given that they already undeveloped and uncoordinated mobility Bike-to-Work campaign. Swiss Federal have a relatively balanced modal split, systems. The temptation is to rely on Railways offer a rent-a-bike service. the emphasis switches to integrating a mainly individual motorised system UGZ, the city’s environment and health and extending the existing mass transit but that will only have to be redesigned agency, is having a multi-mobility-day services, and continuing moves to deter later. Forward-thinking planners have the and supporting a “muscles instead of commuters from using private cars via chance to take advantage of new and engines” campaign. While another city taxes and road tolls. Such cities will emerging transport infrastructures and agency is offering a multi-mobile city also benefit from the implementation of modes of transport which allow them to map and a multimodal trip planner. advanced traffic systems to steer and avoid the errors made in the developed guide the traffic flow. world and transition straight to a mo- The success of these and other initiati- dern and sustainable mobility model. ves hinges on four factors. First, integra- 2. Rethink the system ted traffic information enables travellers Given the US citizen’s love affair with Case study to choose flexibly between different the car, this strategy is most relevant Zurich – To get a glimpse of what means of transportation. Second, there to the majority of the North American networked mobility could mean, let’s are no barriers between different modes cities analysed, as well as the cities in consider the case of Zurich, which ranks of transport. Third, a plethora of tools Southwestern Europe. In many ways, number 12 in our Urban Mobility Index support multimodality: smartphone

22 The Future of Urban Mobility

Figure 15: Urban mobility performance Hong Kong

Hong Kong City Index 5.3 Business models for suppliers of Share of public transport, walking/cycling in

modal split [%] 1% 92% mobility solutions

Mobility strategy/ vision [points] 3,0 10,0 Having city leaders articulate a vision and strategy for their mobility system Car sharing performance [points] 0 5,0 is one thing. Getting companies to Number shared bikes per million citizens 0 6.509

Mobility maturity Mobility contribute and commit to the develop- Penetration of smart cards [cards / capita] 0 2,9 ment and subsequent realisation of Transport related fatalities per million citizens

295 8,3 the vision is quite another. Commercial Transport related CO emissions [kg per capita] 2 7.455 72 enterprises will do so only if they can Vehicles registered per citizen 0,8 0,02 earn a fair return commensurate with Average travel speed [km/h] 5,0 38,1 the risks taken. Satisfaction with transport [points] 2,0 14,0 Mobility performance Mobility Mean travel time to work [minutes] 120,0 18,0 As we have noted before, solving Source: Arthur D. Little’s Urban Mobility Index the urban mobility challenge requires system-level innovations. These are notorious for “chicken or egg” situ- apps, dynamic pricing, advertisements, the highest penetration of any product ations: before a company invests in, discounts, loyalty programs and shared of its kind in the world. The Octopus say, charging stations for electrical spaces. Last but not least, multimo- contactless smartcard – which is carried vehicles, it needs reassurance that there dal mobility has full political support, by 95% of the population – can be used will be a sufficient number of users evident in measures such as parking lot throughout the public transport system buying electrical vehicles; but users will management, the creation of environ- on everything from the subway and buy only when they are reassured there mental areas, the raising of fuel prices buses to trams and ferries, as well as will be a sufficiently dense network of and car taxes, and the implementation high-speed and long-distance trains. It charging stations. So the question is: of automated fare collection systems. an also be used to pay for purchases at which business models can companies many of Hong Kong’s public institutions adopt when seeking to participate in Showcasing success such as school and hospitals as well as urban mobility solutions profitably? One of the few cities that has created a at selected retail outlets. high performance and sustainable mo- The Google, Apple and Dell bility system is Hong Kong. The highest- Thanks to this ease of use and the of mobility scoring city in Arthur D. Little’s Urban existence of such a comprehensive ADL has identified three long-term Mobility Index, it has a well-balanced and highly integrated mobility system, sustainable models for urban mobility modal split, which is seamlessly integ- 46% of travellers use public transport suppliers that will help them adjust to rated to ensure convenient journeys and (see figure 15). The fact that a further the changing demand landscape. Na- reduce the incentive for citizens to travel 38% get about either on foot or by med after a trio of iconic internet-age by private car. bike means that the rate of registered companies, they cater for very different cars per citizen is very low and just contexts and scenarios (see figure 17). As figure 16 shows, the share of susta- 16% of journeys are taken by indivi- inable forms of mobility such as public dual motorised transport. As a result, Google of urban mobility transport and walking and cycling makes Hong Kong has an exemplary level of The key here is that there must be a up no less than 84% of the modal split. transport-related C02 emissions per single point of access for both mobility Other standout statistics are the low capita, low mean travel times to work and supplementary services: identifica- level of vehicle registration per citi- and a low rate of transport-related tion, information, booking and payment. zen and transport-related deaths and fatalities. As well as policymakers and public CO2 emissions. Coupled with this are transport operators, the introduction of relatively high average travel speeds and such schemes requires the involvement consequently low travel-to-work times. of stakeholders such as banks and Smart card penetration runs at 2.9 cards payment firms, telecommunications per citizen, which means that Hong companies and technology suppliers as Kong’s multimodal mobility card enjoys the focus is on the generation of data

23 The Future of Urban Mobility

Figure 16: Hong Kong urban mobility case study

Top 5 Challenges Modal Split

1• No geographic extension potential 2• Drastic increase of cross border traffic (from 9,7 Mio. vehicles in 2003 to 29,2 Mio. vehicles in 2011P) 3• Traffic accidents (increase of 4% p.a.) 16% 46% 38%

4• Air pollution (33% of PM10- und 20% of NO2-emissions from urban mobility) 5• Jammed urban mobility infrastructure motorized individual Public Bike and foot

Top 5 Initiatives Mobility Card Acceptance

1 Octopus – multimodal mobility card (penetration rate: 2,9 cards per inhabitant) 2 Extensive system of free of charge escalators / people movers in the city center 3 Taxation of cars (35-100% of car value) 4 High taxation of gasoline 5 Aggressive extension of subway network

Source: Census and Statistics Department Hong Kong, Arthur D. Little

volumes and penetration rates within use, and revenue sources. The descrip- rest income from the float on e-wallets, the population. tions that we offer below are idealised etc. We estimate that about one third archetypes, yet they could serve as a of the 66 cities we studied lend them- Apple of urban mobility source of inspiration for more specific selves to this business model, that is This solution is centred on integration. business concepts. mostly rich cities with already a large The B2C version involves integrated public share of the modal split. mobility services for high-end consu- Model 1: The mobility services mers that provide a seamless multimo- platform manager Hong Kong Octopus Ltd is an examp- dal journey experience. The B2B model A supplier adopting this business le of a company that has adopted calls for similarly integrated multimodal model offers any traveller a platform this business model. It supplies the mobility solutions on a turnkey basis through which she can get travel infor- Octopus smart card which can be used targeted at cities and mobility service mation, plan a journey, make a booking across public transport modes: bus, providers. and/or pay for the journey (see figure subway, high-speed train, tram, ferry 18). The platform serves as a medium and long-distance train. About 25% of Dell of urban mobility through which the supplier tries to transactions are not transport-related, The most basic of the three offerings, reach as many users as possible in the as the card is also accepted at about this model would concentrate on car traveller community that he is targe- 3,000 service providers. It can be used and bike sharing, for example, rather ting. As he acts as an aggregator of at close to 200 retail outlets (food, than networking. underlying services offered by third par- entertainment, leisure), for parking ties (e.g. parking managers, bike sha- in all Hong Kong streets and at some Through our research we have trans- ring providers, point-of-interest search 600 private parking lots, to get access lated the three archetypes into four application developers), sourcing and to some 200 companies and other distinct business models. The diffe- contracting are critical capabilities. He buildings, and at hospitals, schools, rences between the three relate to cus- gets his revenues through fees from libraries and other public institutions. tomers targeted, products and services partner transactions, fees from rent-a- Ninety-five per cent of Hong Kong inha- offered, assets and capabilities put to place on the platform, advertising, inte- bitants own an Octopus card.

24 The Future of Urban Mobility

Figure 17: Business models for urban mobility suppliers

Business models of future urban mobility Business model: Vision: Insights:

 Single point of access for mobility and supplementary services (identification, information, booking, payment) ⇒ Networking „Google of mobility“ of citizens starting with mobility  Focus on data volumes and penetration rates in population

 B2C: Integrated mobility services for end consumers that provide a seamless, multimodal journey experience „Apple of mobility“  B2B: Integrated, multimodal mobility solutions on a turn-key basis targeted at cities and mobility service providers

 Basic mobility related offering, e.g. car or bike sharing, no networking „Dell of mobility“  Also disruptive technological solutions to make „Google‘s“ and „Apple‘s“ models possible (e.g. drive-in-drive-out transponder systems for garages)

Source: Arthur D. Little Lab

Model 2: The mobility chain all 66 cities worldwide. Clearly it takes buses, financial services, mobility plan- integrator a strong brand and a dense service ning, etc. This is an area where public- A supplier adopting this business network (or at least trusted partners) to private partnerships and so-called BOOT model offers individual travellers a make and deliver on this promise. (build-own-operate-transfer) schemes personalised seamless journey to get can play a very useful role. Clearly the as fast as possible from A to B, what- This business model typically is the market for this offering is global. ever combination of transport modes domain of premium car manufacturers it requires. Imagine a businessperson such as Daimler. They are in a position, This business model fits quite naturally or celebrity flying into Moscow. The for instance, to provide small pickup with infrastructure companies or with journey to his destination in heavily cars (e.g. the Smart car), branded consortia of such companies. Siemens, congested Moscow might take four parking spaces where the pickup car for example, has established a special and a half hours in total. With a premi- can be left, and a branded first-class Infrastructure and Cities business unit um personalised service, the journey section in a suburban train. to become a one-stop-shop for city time could be cut to 45 minutes. First mayors. he takes a branded flight in alliance Model 3: The city mobility solutions with an airline; upon arrival a chauf- provider Model 4: The mobility products and feur takes him to a helicopter taxi; the A supplier adopting this business model service provider taxi transfers him to the city centre; a targets cities instead of travellers. He of- A supplier adopting this business limousine service takes care of the last fers cities tailored integrated multimodal model targets cities and/or city mobility mile to destination. The above descrip- mobility solutions on a turnkey basis. He solutions providers. He offers technolo- tion of course is a bit fanciful, but it acts as a system integrator and contrac- gies e.g. for rolling stock, infrastructure, brings the point home: there is a cus- tor for the various components of the traffic management and travel planning tomer segment with strong purchasing solution. These could include parking and information. He targets cities to power that is willing to pay a premium infrastructure, charging infrastructure which he sells standalone solutions or for speed, safety and convenience. for electrical vehicles, automated fare targets city mobility solutions providers This segment in principle exists across collection, a bike sharing system, city as system integrators. This business

25 The Future of Urban Mobility

Figure 18: Business model outline

Core assets and Business model Target customers Offerings Revenue source capabilities

 Traveller community Single point of access for  IT enabled platform  Transaction fees Mobility services at large getting information,  Consumer interface  Interest income platform manager planning, booking and  Supplier sourcing  Advertising & chip payment for a journey and contracting storage space leasing

 Individual (high-end) Personalized seamless  Brand  Fee for service Mobility chain traveller journey to get as fast and  Dense service integrator convenient from network A to B  Partnerships

 Cities Tailored, integrated  System integration  Case specific Mobility solution  Mobility chain multimodal mobility and contracting provider integrators solutions on a turnkey  Public private basis partnerships

 Traveller community Stand alone, high  Technology  Case specific Mobility products  Cities performance, ease to leadership and service provider  Mobility solution integrate mobility  Open boundaries providers products / services Source: Arthur D. Little Lab

model is the prevailing current model for the future mobility system for the city it offers (a consumer interface, a per- all mobility provides worldwide. should look like; sonalised service, a turnkey infrastruc- ture solution). Insights for the executive ■■ Discover and respond to user needs Improving urban mobility is a challenge and usage patterns with the aim of offe- Clearly urban mobility is a major socie- of epic proportions. As the urban po- ring seamless multimodal services; tal challenge. But human ingenuity and pulations grow and economic prospe- innovation, if feeding off a well-articu- rity increases, cities are increasingly ■■ Introduce market mechanisms that lated and politically backed vision, can under pressure to deliver fast, safe and ensure fair competition between diffe- bring solutions for the benefit of all. environment-friendly transport to citi- rent transport modes, business models zens and businesses. Fortunately, there and types of infrastructure, and enable is a wealth of good-practice examples, entry by new players. technologies and business models on which the various stakeholders can Once these conditions are fulfilled, draw to devise effective and sustainab- there is plenty of scope for commer- le mobility solutions. The stakeholders cial enterprises to commit to the de- – users, city government, infrastruc- velopment and realisation of mobility ture and service providers, technology solutions, thereby earning a fair return suppliers, financiers, regulators, etc. – commensurate with the risks taken. should commit to four actions: Which business model any specific company adopts – i.e. how it makes ■■ Establish a collaborative platform to money – depends on the assets and align objectives and prioritise common capabilities it can put to use, the initiatives for the city’s mobility system; customer segments it targets (the traveller community at large, individual ■■ Establish and execute a vision and high-end travellers, cities themselves), strategies that clearly articulate what and the unique products and services

26 The Future of Urban Mobility

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