MOBILITY SERVICES A STATISTA DOSSIER PLUS ON MOBILITY SERVICES FOR PASSENGERS Table of contents Terminology Competitive landscape ▪ Car-sharing ▪ Investments ▪ Ride-hailing ▪ Financial figures ▪ Transportation networks ▪ Implications Supply- and demand-side factors Market potential and outlook ▪ Vehicle miles traveled by mode ▪ Market size ▪ Impact on light vehicle sales ▪ Emerging markets ▪ Related costs ▪ Market outlook 2 Executive Summary The 2019 zeitgeist is revolving around the primacy of use over EBITDA of -1.8 billion U.S. dollars and -0.9 billion U.S. dollars ownership. There appears to be an underlying assumption that respectively (chapter 3), both companies have yet to prove their today's passengers have a desire to reach their destination fast, business models’ worth. Ultimately, TNCs will seek ways to take at low cost, and in a manner that is environmentally sustainable. the human driver out of the equation (chapter 2). The advent of As a result, Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) business models have autonomous vehicles is projected to transform mobility business begun to conquer the industry. The conventional taxi market is at models and make them more financially sustainable. risk of going extinct due to the emergence of ride-hailing Since they are home to offices, stores, and cultural venues, programs. Concurrently, the car rental market is facing stiff urban areas are forecast to spearhead the trend towards a new competition from innovative car-sharing companies. The breed of passenger vehicles that are autonomous, electric, combined market for ride-hailing, ride-sharing, car-sharing, and connected, and shared. It is projected that urban passenger smart parking is expected to exceed 400 million U.S. dollars by mobility demand will almost double from just under 26 trillion 2025 (chapter 4). passenger kilometers to almost 50 trillion in 2050 (chapter 2). In light of arising business opportunities, the number of startups Not only are travelers expected to become more mobile overall in the field continues to grow, and prices are unlikely to increase and expand the amount of vehicle-miles traveled (VMT) per in a highly competitive environment. It remains to be seen how person, but they are also projected to switch from more traditional many of the startups that have entered the scene will eventually transport modes, such as public transportation or private cars, to be financially sustainable. As of now, there is only a handful of shared mobility. If the industry continues to increase its focus on transportation network companies (TNCs) that are publicly electric drives, the use of car-sharing and ride-sharing vehicles traded, the most prominent ones being Uber and Lyft. With 2018 has the potential to drive down carbon dioxide emissions. 3 01 Terminology ▪ Car-sharing ▪ Ride-sharing ▪ Transportation networks The Mobility-as-a-Service terminology The Mobility-as-a-Service market connects regulators, ▪ Car-sharing programs enable motorists to borrow cars for a infrastructure providers, transport providers, platform short period of time and at low cost. Car-sharing is different providers, and IT service providers to customers. The latter from renting inasmuch as car rental customers keep demand a large number of vehicles they can summon or vehicles for a longer time period, and there is also typically a borrow, e.g. via apps provided by transportation network designated drop-off zone for rental cars. companies (TNCs). ▪ Ride-sharing: Vehicle owners and riders use personal If commuters and travelers changed their travel behavior and vehicles to share their trips. ditched their private cars in favor of sharing, this could ultimately lead to higher vehicle capacity utilization levels and ▪ Ride-hailing programs enable their users to summon a fewer automobile sales. A trend towards declining vehicle vehicle driven by a designated driver. sales growth rates can already be witnessed in several mature markets: North America and Western Europe expect to see ▪ Transportation network companies use technology to plateauing light vehicle sales in 2019 (chapter 2). connect passengers and vehicles. In this report, the terms car-sharing, ride-hailing, and ride- sharing will be used as follows: 5 Car-sharing providers and car rental Car-sharing: Tokyo and Moscow among leading cities companies serve people who require a vehicle temporarily. Car-sharing markets based on vehicles in fleet in 2018 Usually, car rental customers keep said Fleet size in thousands of vehicles in 2018 vehicle for longer time periods and return it 0 5 10 15 20 25 at designated zones, while shared cars are available for brief periods of time and at a Tokyo 19.8 cost that is economically viable for short journeys. Car-sharing programs enable motorists to rent cars either from a company (free-floating) or from private automobile Moscow 16.5 owners (peer-to-peer or P2P). Depending on the program, free-floating car-sharing customers may borrow and return vehicles either at designated pick-up and drop-off Beijing 15.4 zones or wherever it is convenient. P2 car- sharing is different insomuch as it enables automobile owners to rent their personal Shanghai 13.9 vehicles to peers. The top cities for car-sharing were mostly located in Asia in 2018, and no U.S. city Guangzhou 4.2 made the cut. Car-sharing programs in the United States have yet to gain the same popularity as rental cars or taxis. Note: Worldwide Source(s): Bloomberg; Government of Moscow; Frost & Sullivan 6 Russia’s car-sharing market grew by a factor of 2.5 Car-sharing market revenue in Russia between 2017 and 2018 14 13 Russia’s capital was the second biggest car-sharing market in 2018 with 16.5 12 million shared vehicles. According to PwC, car-sharing was available in 14 Russian cities as of August 2018, 10 including Moscow, Sochi, Saint Petersburg, and Krasnodar. 8 Many Russians, especially Moscovites, are turning to car-sharing and ride- hailing services in an effort to mitigate 6 5.1 the growing costs of car ownership and Revenue in billion Russian rublesbillionRussianinRevenue maintenance they face. +7.9 bn ₽ 4 =2.5x growth High costs in combination with a lack of infrastructure and affordable parking in 2 Russia’s cities seem to have translated into a rapid growth of the Russian car- sharing market. 0 2017 2018 Note: Russia 7 Source(s): TIARCENTER Car-sharing more popular among the young More than one third of under 30-year-old drivers were registered with at least one car-sharing program in 2018 Licensees worldwide who were registered with at least one car-sharing program in 2018 80% 74.8% Notwithstanding the fact that only about one third of under 30-year-old holders 70% 66.2% of driving licenses were registered users of at least one car-sharing 60% program in 2018, the younger generation seems to be the cohort that 50% is most receptive to sharing over owning. Under 30s All age groups 40% 30% 19.4% 20% 15.7% 10.8% 10% 7.4% 2.6% 0.5% 1.1% 1.6% 0% None Four programs Three programs Two programs One program Note: Worldwide Source(s): Arthur D. Little 8 Ride-hailing: Asia leads the market Contrary to car-sharing, members of ride-sharing programs keep out of the Global revenue comparison - ride-hailing market as of 2019 driver’s seat, unless they themselves own the vehicle and offer rides to others, which would make them members of peer-to-peer ride-sharing (P2P ride-sharing). P2P ride-sharing (or East Asia carpooling) enables vehicle owners and 56,813 riders to share personal vehicles. million U.S. dollars Ride-hailing programs enable their users to summon a vehicle driven by a designated driver. The ride-hailing market is very similar to the traditional taxi market, but connects passengers and drivers via technology, and sometimes lacks the type of regulation North America that typically puts a cap on the number 52,877 of vehicles in taxi fleets. Technology has million U.S. dollars South Asia given rise to the term e-hailing. 30,744 million Eastern Asia is expected to remain the U.S. dollars largest market globally. The Statista Mobility Market Outlook estimates that this market will grow from 56.8 billion to 105 billion U.S. dollars and serve some 45,000 50,000 55,000 700 million customers in 2023. Note: Worldwide Source(s): Statista Mobility Market Outlook 9 Singapore’s ride-hailing penetration rate among the highest worldwide Projected penetration rate in Singapore’s ride-hailing market between 2017 and 2023 45% Singapore has a population density of Penetration rate about 20,000 people per square mile. 40% 42.7% 41.2% Road taxes, parking fees, and vehicle 39.4% entry permit fees were introduced to 35% 37.0% mitigate congestion and air pollution. 34.2% As a result, the country’s ride-hailing 30% 30.8% penetration rate is expected to grow to almost 43 percent by 2023. 25% 27.2% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Note: Singapore Source(s): Statista Mobility Market Outlook 10 Ride-hailing companies continue to gain market share Trips per day taken in New York City with selected taxi/ridesharing services throughout April 2019 Yellow Cab Uber Lyft 600,000 521,912 Taxi operators serve people who need a ride but do not necessarily want to use car- 500,000 sharing because they either feel uncomfortable driving in an 376,509 unfamiliar environment or do 400,000 398,437 not hold a driver’s license. 347,726 Ride-hailing operators have 300,000 308,129 already begun to eat into the 249,579 taxi market. At approximately 28 264,822 billion U.S.