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Projeção Geopolítica Do Brasil E Da América Do Sul Ao Continente Antártico

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Projeção Geopolítica Do Brasil E Da América Do Sul Ao Continente Antártico FERNANDO PORTILLO ROMERO PROJEÇÃO GEOPOLÍTICA DO BRASIL E DA AMÉRICA DO SUL AO CONTINENTE ANTÁRTICO: situação atual e perspectivas Trabalho de Conclusão de Curso - Monografia apresentada ao Departamento de Estudos da Escola Superior de Guerra como requisito à obtenção do diploma do Curso de Altos Estudos de Política e Estratégia. Orientador: CMG (RM1) Francisco José de Matos Rio de Janeiro 2014 C2014 ESG Este trabalho, nos termos de legislação que resguarda os direitos autorais, é considerado propriedade da ESCOLA SUPERIOR DE GUERRA (ESG). É permitido a transcrição parcial de textos do trabalho, ou mencioná-los, para comentários e citações, desde que sem propósitos comerciais e que seja feita a referência bibliográfica completa. Os conceitos expressos neste trabalho são de responsabilidade do autor e não expressam qualquer orientação institucional da ESG _________________________________ Assinatura do autor Biblioteca General Cordeiro de Farias Portillo Romero, Fernando. Projeção Geopolítica do Brasil e da América do Sul ao Continente antártico:Situação atual e perspectivas / Fernando Portillo Romero. - Rio de Janeiro: ESG, 2014. 66 f.:il. Orientador: CMG (RM1) Francisco José de Matos. Trabalho de Conclusão de Curso – Monografia apresentadaao Departamento de Estudos da Escola Superior de Guerra como requisito à obtenção do diploma do Curso de Altos Estudos de Política e Estratégia (CAEPE), 2014. 1. Antártica. 2. PROANTAR. 3. RAPAL. I. Título. A ESG que durante o meu período de formação contribuiu com ensinamentos e incentivos. A minha esposa e em especial a minha filha, pela compreensão, como resposta aos momentos de minhas ausências e omissões, em dedicação às atividades da ESG. AGRADECIMENTOS Aos meus professores da Escola Superior de Guerra por terem sido responsáveis por parte considerável da minha formação e do meu aprendizado. Aos estagiários da melhor Turma do CAEPE “ESG 65 anos pensando o Brasil” pelo convívio harmonioso de todas as horas. Ao Corpo Permanente da ESG pelos ensinamentos e orientações que me fizeram refletir, cada vez mais, sobre a importância de se estudar os nossos países com a responsabilidade implícita de ter que melhorar. As nações buscam dirigir seus interesses para áreas especificas que venham ao encontro das suas necessidades políticas e estratégicas. Terezinha de Castro RESUMO Esta monografia aborda a projeção geopolítica do Brasil e países da América do Sul (Argentina, Chile, Equador, Peru e Uruguai) para a Antártida ante a importância geoestratégica e geoeconômica do continente antártico dentro do marco jurídico do Sistema do Tratado Antártida para sua gestão. Nesse sentido, o trabalho, a partir de uma perspectiva geral, se propõe a conhecer a situação atual e as políticas e estratégias definidas para a consecução dos objetivos de projeção geopolítica para a Antártida. Já no contexto específico, o estudo tem como objetivo fazer um diagnóstico da situação, avaliar as políticas e estratégias definidas para determinar os óbices que têm impedido ou limitado a projeção geopolítica, propondo objetivos e trajetórias estratégicas alternativas que permitam redirecionar as políticas atuais, adaptando-se aos cenários previamente identificados, a partir de uma análise prospectiva, utilizando a interatividade do processo de planejamento numa das fases de retroalimentação. Palavras chave: Antártica. PROANTAR. RAPAL. RESUMEN Esta monografía aborda la proyección geopolítica de Brasil y países de América del Sur (Argentina, Chile, Ecuador, Perú y Uruguay) a la Antártida ante la importancia geoestratégica y geoeconómica del Continente Antártico dentro del marco jurídico del Sistema del Tratado Antártico para su administración. En ese sentido el presente trabajo pretende, desde una perspectiva general, conocer la situación actual, políticas y estrategias definidas por los países en estudio para alcanzar los objetivos de proyección geopolítica a la Antártida. Ya en el contexto especifico, el estudio tiene por objeto realizar un diagnostico de la situación actual, evaluar las políticas y estrategias definidas a fin de determinar los obstáculos que han impedido o limitado la proyección geopolítica, proponiendo objetivos y trayectorias estratégicas alternativas que permitan reorientar las actuales políticas, adaptándola a los escenarios previamente identificados, a partir de un análisis prospectivo, aprovechando la iteratividad del proceso de planeamiento en una de las fases de retroalimentación. Palabras clave: Antártida. PROANTAR. RAPAL. LISTA DE ILUSTRAÇÕES GRÁFICO 1 Situação do Sistema do Tratado Antártico .......................................18 GRÁFICO 2 Informações obtidas na área de influência e dependência ..............50 GRÁFICO 3 Cenário desfavorável e Cenário favorável .......................................52 GRÁFICO 4 Cenário Mais Provável .....................................................................53 QUADRO 1 Teste de Adequabilidade .................................................................58 QUADRO 2 Teste de Exequibilidade ...................................................................58 QUADRO 3 Teste de Aceitabilidade ....................................................................59 GRÁFICO 5 Resultados das Trajetórias Estratégicas Conservadas ....................60 LISTA DE TABELAS Tabela 1 Fatos Portadores do Futuro ...................................................................... 41 Tabela 2 Eventos Futuros Preliminares .................................................................. 46 Tabela 3 Matriz Fatores Críticos ............................................................................. 49 Tabela 4 Matriz de Influencia e Dependência ......................................................... 49 Tabela 5 Matriz de estratégias dos atores............................................................... 51 Tabela 6 Matriz de interesses dos atores ................................................................ 51 Tabela 7 Matriz de Análise das tendências ............................................................. 52 Tabela 8 Cenário Mais Provável ............................................................................. 54 Tabela 9 Ações Estratégicas ................................................................................... 57 Tabela 10 Trajetórias Estratégicas ............................................................................ 59 LISTA DE ABREVIATURAS E SIGLAS AGI Ano Geofísico Internacional COMNAP Conselho da Administradores do Programas Antártico Nacionais EACF Estação Antártica Comandante Ferraz ECARE Estação Científica Antártica T/N Ruperto Elichiribehety ECAMP Estação Científica Antártica Machu Picchu END Estratégia Nacional de Defesa, do Brasil ESG Escola Superior de Guerra EUA Estados Unidos da America EV Evento Futuro FAB Força Aérea do Brasil FPF Fato Portador do Futuro IAA Instituto Antártico Argentino IAU Instituto Antártico Uruguaio INACH Instituto Antártico Chileno INAE Instituto Antártico Equatoriano INCT Instituto Nacional da Ciência e Tecnologia INCT-C Instituto Nacional de Ciência e Tecnologia Antártico de Criosfera INCT-APA Instituto Nacional de Ciência e Tecnologia Antártico de Pesquisas Ambientais LBDN Livro Branco de Defesa Nacional do Brasil MAE Módulos Antárticos Emergenciais MB Marinha do Brasil MPE Metodologia de Planejamento Estratégico MCT Ministério de Ciência e Tecnologia ONU Organização das Nações Unidas PND Política Nacional de Defesa do Brasil POLANTAR Política Nacional para assuntos antárticos PROANTAR Programa Antártico Brasileiro PROCIEN Programa Nacional de Ciência Antártica do Chile RAPAL Reunião de Administradores de Programas Antárticos Latino- americanos RCTA Reunião Consultiva de Tratado Antártico SECIRM Secretaria da Comissão Interministerial para os Recursos do Mar STA Sistema de Tratado Antártico TIAR Tratado Interamericano de Assistência Recíproca URSS União da Republicas Soviéticas Socialistas SUMÁRIO 1 INTRODUÇÃO .......................................................................................... 13 2 FASE DE DIAGNÓSTICO ........................................................................ 16 2.1 ANÁLISE DO AMBIENTE ......................................................................... 16 2.1.1 Antecedente ............................................................................................. 16 2.1.2 Ambiente Externo .................................................................................... 20 2.1.2.1 Tratado Antártico ....................................................................................... 20 2.1.2.2 Protocolo ao Tratado Antártico sobre Proteção ao Meio Ambiente ........... 21 2.1.3 Ambiente Interno ..................................................................................... 21 2.1.3.1 Expressão Política ..................................................................................... 21 2.1.3.2 Expressão Econômica ............................................................................... 25 2.1.3.3 Expressão Psicossocial ............................................................................. 26 2.1.3.4 Expressão Militar ....................................................................................... 27 2.1.3.5 Expressão Científica e Tecnológica .......................................................... 28 2.1.4 Análise do Ambiente Externo................................................................. 30 2.1.4.1 Oportunidades ..........................................................................................
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