Will the Lights Go Out?" Recent Major Changes in Energy Availability Are Making People See This As a Serious Question

Summary of conference proceedings Roger Kemp Foreward "Will the lights go out?" Recent major changes in energy availability are making people see this as a serious question. In recent years dramatic and large scale electricity power cuts affected London and south east England. These were, however, minor compared with massive cuts across Europe and North America. With prices on the world oil market rising substantially as a result of global political unrest, and growing world demand, it is easy to see that our electricity supply infrastructure is inadequate. Governments are expected to provide the answer. Everyone agrees that a sound energy policy is crucial for a modern economy, but such a policy is difficult to devise, maintain and implement. It is especially difficult as, for the twenty years since the oil crises of 1974 and the 1980’s, we have enjoyed an extended period of general calm which has lulled us into not even thinking of energy. Cheap, guaranteed fuel is now not an option. The 2003 Energy White Paper and the recent Energy Bill have challenged the UK to review its energy policy and how this is used. Public debate on energy policy and how it affects us in the North West in these early years of the 21st century and beyond is essential. We need to understand issues such as the objectives and implications of the Kyoto Protocol and how they will affect us. To this end, a wide range of expert and authoritative speakers were assembled to present a one-day Conference with a holistic character. Will the lights go out? Over 240 delegates from the UK, France and the USA attended the Delegate groupings conference on Tuesday 14th December 2004, with academic, industrial, governmental and public sectors all well represented. A feedback Academe questionnaire was distributed after the conference and the responses Industry obtained are summarised at the end of this publication. Government Lancaster University, the North West Energy Council and the NGO/Lobbies Government Office for the North West sponsored the Conference which was chaired by Professor Sue Cox. Delegates had the Other opportunity to contribute in the three question-and-answer sessions, and in the Open Debate at the end. This document provides a summary of the main points expressed by the speakers on the day, it also incorporates some of the significant points raised by the panellists and the delegates during the discussion sessions and final open debate. Conference Programme 09:30 Introduction What are our options? (continued) by Sue Cox 13:30 What is the future for fossil fuels? Keith Anderson (Scottish Power) Energy - is a crisis looming? 13:50 Can nuclear power come back? st 09:35 Energy: the challenges in the 21 Century Richard Mayson (BNFL) Cristóbal Burgos-Alonso (EC) 14:10 Can the grid deliver? 10:00 Is Britain living in a fool's paradise? Nick Jenkins (University of Manchester) Sir Christopher Audland 14:30 Moving towards hydrogen? Keith Ross (University of Salford) 10:25 Discussion 15:00 Panel discussion 10:40 Coffee break 15:20 Tea What are our options? What is stopping us? 11:05 How can we cut demand, 15:45 Societal, ecological & political dilemmas at home and in industry? Sir Martin Holdgate Brenda Boardman (ECI, Oxford University) 16:05 Open debate Introduced by Joe Flanagan (NWEC) 11:35 The facts and fiction of renewable energy George Aggidis (Lancaster University) Résumé 12:05 Panel discussion 16:50 Summing up by the conference rapporteur 12:30 Lunch Roger Kemp (Lancaster University) 17:00 Close 1 Conference Speakers Professor Sue Cox Mr Keith Anderson Sue is Dean of the Management School Keith joined Scottish Power in 1999 and at Lancaster University, where she holds a was appointed as UK Strategy & External Chair in Safety and Risk Management. Affairs Director in August 2003. As a Sue acts as a government advisor and member of the UK Executive Team, Keith actively contributes to a number of nuclear safety is responsible for leading the strategic advisory committees in relation to organisational process within the UK Division and managing key strategy and management. interactions with stakeholders. Mr Cristóbal Burgos-Alonso Mr Richard Mayson Cristóbal has been working in the Richard is Technology Director for European Commission since 1987 with Reactor Systems at BNFL, he is also a financial control of structural funds. He member of NW Energy Council. He has joined the Directorate General for Energy been Head of Safety and Environmental in 1992 and became responsible for the Risk Management for BNFL. Richard is EC Gas Unit in 1997. In 2001 he was nominated Head interested in Advanced Passive Design Pressurised of Unit responsible for Security of Supply - internal and Water Reactors and developments such as Pebble Bed external, and the follow-up of the Green Paper Modular Reactors. debate. In October 2003 Cristóbal was appointed Adviser to the EC Conventional Energies' Directorate. Professor Nick Jenkins Nick is Professor of Electrical Energy and Sir Christopher Audland Power Systems at the University of Christopher was Director-General for Manchester and Director of the Joule Energy of the European Commission Centre. His research interests include from 1981 to 1986. As such, he attended distributed generation, renewable energy, wind all meetings of Western Economic energy, photo-voltaics, power quality and the Summits, the European Council, the hydrogen economy. European Parliament, and the Council of Ministers, when Energy was debated: and also all top Professor Keith Ross level meetings of the IEA and IAEA. He was also the Keith is Professor of Physics and Director Commission's Co-ordinator for all work arising from of the Institute for Materials Research at the Chernobyl accident. He later became Executive the University of Salford. He leads the President of Europa Nostra, the key pan-European Hydrogen Energy activity in the Joule NGO for Heritage questions (including the built and Energy Research Centre and is a Member natural heritage). of International Energy Agency Task 17: Hydrogen Storage. Dr Brenda Boardman Brenda is head of the Lower Carbon Eur Ing George Aggidis Futures team at Oxford University's George is Senior Lecturer in Engineering Environmental Change Institute. Her main at Lancaster University, Director of research focus is on energy efficiency and Lancaster University Renewable Energy the way that energy is used in British Group and Director of Lancaster homes, particularly by low income households, i.e. fuel University Fluid Machinery Group. He has poverty. She has been a member of the DTI's Energy made wide-ranging contributions to Advisory Panel and is widely viewed as one of the research, design, and development in the field of fluid most experienced in her field. She was awarded an machinery and renewable energy, including patent for MBE in 1998 for her work on energy issues. power generation water turbines. He is on the Board of the Joule Centre and also the Fluid Machinery Sir Martin Holdgate Group of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers. Martin has been Chairman of the Government's Energy Advisory Panel, Mr Joe Flanagan Member of the UN Task Force on Joe joined the NWDA as Head of Energy Environment and Human Settlements in December 2003 coinciding with the and a Trustee of the UK National formation of the NW Energy Council. Heritage Memorial Fund/Heritage Lottery Fund. He was been President of the Zoological Society Professor Roger Kemp of London from 1994 to 2003, and is also Chairman Roger is a Professorial Fellow in the of the International Institute for Environment and Engineering Department at Lancaster Development and a member of the Royal Commission University. He spent almost 30 years in on Environmental Pollution. the rail industry. He retains his rail interests at the university as well as being a member of the sustainable energy group. 2 Will the lights go out? Summary of conference proceedings Introduction Some speakers welcomed the white paper – One described himself as a “fan”. Others were less The conference, held at Lancaster University on enthusiastic – Sir Martin Holdgate described it as “not 14 December 2004, attracted more than 230 a thought-through strategy, never mind an delegates, evenly divided between industry, academia implementable plan”. and local groups. Several speakers questioned the EWP’s mixing the In the course of a very full day, papers were presented ability to pay with policies to reduce CO2 emissions. by 10 invited speakers and there were diverse Professor Alasdair Macbean argued that there is a contributions both from members of an invited panel strong case for raising the price of energy and using and from the floor. the income to subsidise those unable to afford to This summary tries to capture the main points made keep themselves warm. Julian Carter from Energy during the day; it does not claim to be a full transcript North-West argued for the need to decouple policies of proceedings and contributions have been grouped on fuel poverty from energy policy. On the other by topic, rather than chronologically. Unless a hand Karl Brookes from Energywatch strongly argued statement is specifically attributed, there should be no for maintaining low domestic energy prices to avoid presumption that it was supported by any individual. fuel poverty and achieving savings in other ways. The main themes Security of supply Throughout the conference four main themes Richard Mayson showed a graph of the predicted run- emerged: down of UK nuclear generation from more than 9000 MWe in 2003 to about 1000 MWe when only Security of supply; Sizewell B is operating after 2023. Limiting climate change; Fig 1: Rundown of UK nuclear plant Local environmental and amenity impact of energy industries; 10000 The way forward.

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