POLARIZED AND SURPRISING TÍELECTULOTIONS IN CHILE: PIÑERA ANSubtítuloD GUILLIER WILL FACE EACH ODiciembreTHER 2015 IN THE BALLOT Madrid, November 2017 Barcelona • Bogota • Buenos Aires • Havana • Lima • Lisbon • Madrid • Mexico City • Miami • New York City • Panama City • Quito • Rio de Janeiro • Sao Paulo Santiago • Santo Domingo • Washington, DC Index Introduction 3 1. Presidential Elections 4 The day of surprises 10 Effect on the market 14 2. Parliamentary elections 16 Team of Specialists 21 Introduction As we already anticipated in the Digital reflects an increase over what marked in the Political Barometer,1 the conversation in social emblematic polls. Effectively, the right-wing networks could anticipate many of the results, candidate came fourth in the overall result, and it did not disappoint. With a sample of drawing from the equation the surprise given more than 350,000 mentions, José Antonio Kast by Beatriz Sánchez and her high percentage in had the third majority in vote intention, which third place. 1 La Tercera How would the presidential elections be if we could vote through social media? Figure 1. Tone of conversation and sentiment analysis per candidate Sebastián Piñera Carolina Goic 111.884 comentarios 43.020 comentarios % 40% NEUTRO % 44% NEUTRO 30 57 40 52 Marco Enriquez-Ominami Beatriz Sánchez 66.007 comentarios 21.812 comentarios % % 40% NEUTRO 45% NEUTRO 40 56 30 52 Alejandro Guillier Alejandro Navarro 55.926 comentarios 9.091 comentarios % 32% NEUTRO % 44% NEUTRO 40 64 20 54 José Antonio Kast Eduardo Artés 51.246 comentarios 4.777 comentarios % % 45% NEUTRO 34% NEUTRO 60 49 10 65 Source: Séntisis 3 1. Presidential Elections Michelle Bachelet, after her first government, Today, months from the end of her term, took over as deputy general secretary of the Bachelet faces the end of a period of rule United Nations, with the objective of taking that was not without controversy and whose over the executive management of the newly main result is the possibility of returning the created UN Women. Despite living in the United government to the right wing with Sebastian States, the former president always remained Piñera as Chile’s candidate for Vamos party. one of the political figures with best reputation among the people. Reason why, after the end Will it be the end of La Nueva Mayoria, as a of Sebastian Piñera’s term (first right-wing political conglomerate that has historically government after the return to democracy), ruled the country? What were the reasons she returned to the country in March 2013 to for the party’s decline in popularity among become a candidate again for the presidency. citizens? Family, internal and political conflicts made this second government, Bachelet was elected in primaries as a candidate of the political coalition of La Nueva Mayoria “De haber sabido todos los (La Nueva Mayoría), formed by Concertacion and other parties of the left, obtaining a large inconvenientes que iba a tener majority of votes in the presidential elections durante este segundo periodo of 2013 and being reelected for a second term, which initiated on March 11, 2014. como presidenta de Chile, es bastante probable que Michelle If she had known all the inconveniences that she was going to face during her second period Bachelet no se hubiera decidido a as president of Chile, it is quite likely that aceptar el desafío” Michelle Bachelet would not have decided to accept the challenge. The various conflicts she has had to deal with: the Caval case, the Figure 2. CEP survey abstract from departure of two of her key ministers such as September - October 2017 those of Internal Affairs (Rodrigo Peñailillo and Jorge Burgos), also Alberto Arenas, her first Finance minister (promoter of the Tax % 82 BACHELET PIÑERA BACHELET Reform in Chile) and the second in the same 74 71 69 68 65 66 63 63 64 portfolio Rodrigo Valdés (driver of the Pension 61 60 62 59 56 Reform), all of this added to Chile’s constant 59 50 50 48 49 48 48 47 48 47 natural disasters (fires, earthquakes and 46 47 37 43 44 38 37 volcanic eruptions), among others; made her 35 33 32 31 30 30 30 30 24 22 29 26 mandate almost an impossible mission. 25 14 She scored very low in citizen’s approval, pr 12 pr 15 A -Dec 10 in fact, in the last survey of the Center A Nov for Public Studies (CEP) of September- *Significant difference from a statistical perspective between October 2017; the president had a 23 the assessment made in November – December 2016 and percent approval, having to deal with many September to October 2017. concerns throughout her government, those that started from the beginning. Source: CEP, national polls 4 despite the controversial legacy of its reforms, remembered for the lack of clarity with which it addressed the country and a constant sense of disorder and a lack of progress. Bachelet has openly said she is not interested in returning to La Moneda in the future.2 “We will continue working until the last day of government to provide answers and solutions, in every corner of Chile, and respond to the needs of the people, because frankly it is the only true reason why a person like me can be in this position and, just in case, so that no one is afraid, I will not return.” PRIMARY ELECTIONS: THE PREFERENTIAL POSITION OF SEBAstIAN PIÑERA, THE BIRTH OF FRENTE AMPLIO AND THE DECLINE OF LA NUEVA MAYORIA The poor evaluation, made by Chilean society of Bachelet’s second period, is publicly known. The 23 percent support obtained in the latest survey of the Center for Public Studies (CEP) confirms what, for many in La Nueva Mayoria (a conglomerate that governs along with the president), is difficult to digest: they did not meet the citizens’ expectations. Figure 3. Primary elections Chile Vamos Under this logic, a large part of the political parties that have a significant representation in the country were Manuel José Ossandón 29% 372.215 votes reorganized to present proposals that would replace Bachelet for the next elections. Felipe Kast 33% 218.489 votes The internal climate in La Nueva Mayoria, with ideological conflicts within the parties Sebastián Piñera 827.434 votes that comprise it, finally, interrupted Bachelet’s 37% project, giving a sense of lack of capacity to 0 100.000 200.000 300.000 400.000 500.000 600.000 700.000 800.000 900.000 govern and showing signs of disorder that all political opponents sought to take advantage of. Source: in house 2 La Tercera Bachelet and La Moneda: just in case, so that nobody gets scared, I will not return. 5 Primary elections in Chile Vamos: Sebastian “El exmandatario propone la Piñera, winner by a large majority eliminación del Transantiago la The opposition, represented by Chile Vamos, reducción del número de diputados saw in the former President, Sebastian Piñera, the right person to lead a new project towards y senadores, y la posibilidad de La Moneda, after his first term as president, reelección presidencial” between the period of government of 2010 - 2014. Thus, bringing together the support of the Union Democrata Independiente (UDI), Renovacion Beatriz Sanchez rose up as the standard-bearer Nacional (RN) and Evolucion Politica (Evopoli), to of Frente Amplio name the most important, and after conducting primary elections in which he was confronted If something was missing for Frente Amplio by Manuel Jose Ossandon (senator RN Santiago to establish itself as a new left-wing political Oriente) and Felipe Kast (representative of alternative in Chile, it was to introduce its own Evopoli and current deputy for Santiago), the powerful candidate as a presidential candidate. entrepreneur was awarded the option of being This political coalition made up of parties and the candidate of the right wing for the second movements of the left, liberals and citizens, time (see graph). intends to overcome the dichotomy of the Chilean bipartisanship formed by La Nueva Mayoria and Considered a favorite one in the presidential Chile Vamos. race according to the CEP, with 42.3 percent of support, Piñera and his programmatic team Its main leaders, Giorgio Jackson (Democratic began to design an action plan, which includes Revolution) and Gabriel Boric (Autonomist 62 proposals and he called it “Tiempos Mejores” Movement), stood out for being part of the (better times). diverse mobilizations for education that faced the government of Bachelet (2006-2010) and Piñera The document splits its proposals into four (2010-2014), which it allowed them to establish central pillars: education and economic growth; themselves as the political leaders of the future of health and overcoming poverty; security and the left, being elected as deputies. modernization of the State, and improvement of the quality of life. Figure 4. Primary Results Frente Amplio The former president proposes the elimination of the Transantiago (public transport system of the Alberto Mayol Alberto Mayol; 106.265 capital), the reduction in the number of deputies and senators, and the possibility of a presidential Beatriz Sánchez; re-election. In addition, they highlight initiatives Beatriz Sánchez 221.348 in education, economy, security and a review of the current emblematic reforms implemented by 0 50.000 100.000 150.000 200.000 250.000 Bachelet. Source: in house. 6 Once established as a force, the mission was of representatives in the Congress to be able to to recruit someone to unite all the interests of form a caucus and add more weight in relation to Frente Amplio. It was as well as the journalist the bills that are discussed in both the Senate and Beatriz Sanchez, famous for her strong, the Chamber of Deputies.