Polarized and surprising Tíelectulotions in : Piñera anSubtítulod Guillier will face each oDiciembrether 2015 in the ballot Madrid, November 2017

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Introduction 3

1. Presidential Elections 4

The day of surprises 10

Effect on the market 14

2. Parliamentary elections 16

Team of Specialists 21 Introduction

As we already anticipated in the Digital reflects an increase over what marked in the Political Barometer,1 the conversation in social emblematic polls. Effectively, the right-wing networks could anticipate many of the results, candidate came fourth in the overall result, and it did not disappoint. With a sample of drawing from the equation the surprise given more than 350,000 mentions, José Antonio Kast by Beatriz Sánchez and her high percentage in had the third majority in vote intention, which third place.

1 La Tercera How would the presidential elections be if we could vote through social media?

Figure 1. Tone of conversation and sentiment analysis per candidate

Sebastián Piñera Carolina Goic 111.884 comentarios 43.020 comentarios

% 40% NEUTRO % 44% NEUTRO 30 57 40 52

Marco Enriquez-Ominami Beatriz Sánchez 66.007 comentarios 21.812 comentarios

% % 40% NEUTRO 45% NEUTRO 40 56 30 52

Alejandro Guillier Alejandro Navarro 55.926 comentarios 9.091 comentarios

% 32% NEUTRO % 44% NEUTRO 40 64 20 54

José Antonio Kast Eduardo Artés 51.246 comentarios 4.777 comentarios

% % 45% NEUTRO 34% NEUTRO 60 49 10 65 Source: Séntisis

3 1. Presidential Elections

Michelle Bachelet, after her first government, Today, months from the end of her term, took over as deputy general secretary of the Bachelet faces the end of a period of rule United Nations, with the objective of taking that was not without controversy and whose over the executive management of the newly main result is the possibility of returning the created UN Women. Despite living in the United government to the right wing with Sebastian States, the former president always remained Piñera as Chile’s candidate for Vamos party. one of the political figures with best reputation among the people. Reason why, after the end Will it be the end of La Nueva Mayoria, as a of Sebastian Piñera’s term (first right-wing political conglomerate that has historically government after the return to democracy), ruled the country? What were the reasons she returned to the country in March 2013 to for the party’s decline in popularity among become a candidate again for the presidency. citizens? Family, internal and political conflicts made this second government, Bachelet was elected in primaries as a candidate of the political coalition of La Nueva Mayoria “De haber sabido todos los (La Nueva Mayoría), formed by Concertacion and other parties of the left, obtaining a large inconvenientes que iba a tener majority of votes in the presidential elections durante este segundo periodo of 2013 and being reelected for a second term, which initiated on March 11, 2014. como presidenta de Chile, es bastante probable que Michelle If she had known all the inconveniences that she was going to face during her second period Bachelet no se hubiera decidido a as president of Chile, it is quite likely that aceptar el desafío” Michelle Bachelet would not have decided to accept the challenge. The various conflicts she has had to deal with: the Caval case, the Figure 2. CEP survey abstract from departure of two of her key ministers such as September - October 2017 those of Internal Affairs (Rodrigo Peñailillo and Jorge Burgos), also Alberto Arenas, her first Finance minister (promoter of the Tax % 82 BACHELET PIÑERA BACHELET Reform in Chile) and the second in the same 74 71 69 68 65 66 63 63 64 portfolio Rodrigo Valdés (driver of the Pension 61 60 62 59 56 Reform), all of this added to Chile’s constant 59 50 50 48 49 48 48 47

48 47 natural disasters (fires, earthquakes and 46 47 37 43 44 38 37 volcanic eruptions), among others; made her 35 33 32 31 30 30 30 30 24 22 29 26 mandate almost an impossible mission. 25

14 She scored very low in citizen’s approval, A pr 12 -Dec 10 in fact, in the last survey of the Center A pr 15 Nov for Public Studies (CEP) of September- *Significant difference from a statistical perspective between October 2017; the president had a 23 the assessment made in November – December 2016 and percent approval, having to deal with many September to October 2017. concerns throughout her government, those that started from the beginning. Source: CEP, national polls

4 despite the controversial legacy of its reforms, remembered for the lack of clarity with which it addressed the country and a constant sense of disorder and a lack of progress.

Bachelet has openly said she is not interested in returning to La Moneda in the future.2 “We will continue working until the last day of government to provide answers and solutions, in every corner of Chile, and respond to the needs of the people, because frankly it is the only true reason why a person like me can be in this position and, just in case, so that no one is afraid, I will not return.”

Primary elections: the preferential position of Sebastian Piñera, the birth of Frente Amplio and the decline of La Nueva Mayoria

The poor evaluation, made by Chilean society of Bachelet’s second period, is publicly known. The 23 percent support obtained in the latest survey of the Center for Public Studies (CEP) confirms what, for many in La Nueva Mayoria (a conglomerate that governs along with the president), is difficult to digest: they did not meet the citizens’ expectations. Figure 3. Primary elections Chile Vamos Under this logic, a large part of the political parties that have a significant representation in the country were Manuel José Ossandón 29% 372.215 votes reorganized to present proposals that would replace Bachelet for the next elections. Felipe Kast 33% 218.489 votes The internal climate in La Nueva Mayoria, with ideological conflicts within the parties Sebastián Piñera 827.434 votes that comprise it, finally, interrupted Bachelet’s 37% project, giving a sense of lack of capacity to 0 100.000 200.000 300.000 400.000 500.000 600.000 700.000 800.000 900.000 govern and showing signs of disorder that all political opponents sought to take advantage of. Source: in house

2 La Tercera Bachelet and La Moneda: just in case, so that nobody gets scared, I will not return.

5 Primary elections in Chile Vamos: Sebastian “El exmandatario propone la Piñera, winner by a large majority eliminación del Transantiago la The opposition, represented by Chile Vamos, reducción del número de diputados saw in the former President, Sebastian Piñera, the right person to lead a new project towards y senadores, y la posibilidad de La Moneda, after his first term as president, reelección presidencial” between the period of government of 2010 - 2014. Thus, bringing together the support of the Union Democrata Independiente (UDI), Renovacion Beatriz Sanchez rose up as the standard-bearer Nacional (RN) and Evolucion Politica (Evopoli), to of Frente Amplio name the most important, and after conducting primary elections in which he was confronted If something was missing for Frente Amplio by Manuel Jose Ossandon (senator RN Santiago to establish itself as a new left-wing political Oriente) and Felipe Kast (representative of alternative in Chile, it was to introduce its own Evopoli and current deputy for Santiago), the powerful candidate as a presidential candidate. entrepreneur was awarded the option of being This political coalition made up of parties and the candidate of the right wing for the second movements of the left, liberals and citizens, time (see graph). intends to overcome the dichotomy of the Chilean bipartisanship formed by La Nueva Mayoria and Considered a favorite one in the presidential Chile Vamos. race according to the CEP, with 42.3 percent of support, Piñera and his programmatic team Its main leaders, (Democratic began to design an action plan, which includes Revolution) and (Autonomist 62 proposals and he called it “Tiempos Mejores” Movement), stood out for being part of the (better times). diverse mobilizations for education that faced the government of Bachelet (2006-2010) and Piñera The document splits its proposals into four (2010-2014), which it allowed them to establish central pillars: education and economic growth; themselves as the political leaders of the future of health and overcoming poverty; security and the left, being elected as deputies. modernization of the State, and improvement of the quality of life. Figure 4. Primary Results Frente Amplio

The former president proposes the elimination of the Transantiago (public transport system of the Alberto Mayol; 106.265 capital), the reduction in the number of deputies and senators, and the possibility of a presidential

Beatriz Sánchez; re-election. In addition, they highlight initiatives Beatriz Sánchez 221.348 in education, economy, security and a review of the current emblematic reforms implemented by 0 50.000 100.000 150.000 200.000 250.000 Bachelet. Source: in house.

6 Once established as a force, the mission was of representatives in the Congress to be able to to recruit someone to unite all the interests of form a caucus and add more weight in relation to Frente Amplio. It was as well as the journalist the bills that are discussed in both the Senate and Beatriz Sanchez, famous for her strong, the Chamber of Deputies. feminist style and for having a high level of knowledge regarding citizenship due to her Alejandro Guillier, the savior of La Nueva daily appearances on La Clave radio and the Mayoria? TV channel La Red, she was the person chosen to lead the first presidential experience of the The disorder within La Nueva Mayoria is such conglomerate. that even though they are the conglomerate that leads the country, its members never agreed to To get there, she had to win in a primary election nominate a single candidate to face Sebastian the political scientist and sociologist Alberto Piñera, even before he decided to run for La Mayol, from the Nueva Democracia movement Moneda the second time. (see graph). After these results, Sanchez obtained good support rates among the citizens (in the last The first trying to combine the criteria was the survey CEP of September to October marked 8.5 former President, . However, his percent in intention to vote), even going so far as choice failed to motivate those who lead the to fight the second place with Alejandro Guillier. center left in Chile, so he made the decision to get out of the presidential race a few months The program of Frente Amplio candidate, called after confirming his willingness to a new term as “El Programa de Muchos” (The Program of Many), president. is based on five pillars: pensions, health, work, education and inclusion, and includes within its Under that logic, Alejandro Guillier, an most important proposals a trinational agenda independent senator for the II Region de with Bolivia and Peru, with the purpose of Antofagasta, won the support of the Socialist, “advancing the establishment of mutual trust Radical and Por la Democracia (PPD) parties, and the restoration of diplomatic relations with leaving the Democracia Cristiana (DC) in a bad Bolivia. place, which decided to raise its own candidacy with Carolina Goic as a protest for not having a Also, it establishes “a study of expropriation common government plan. of possibilities, on which a national policy of nationalizations will be created, aimed at companies considered that are considered “El desorden dentro de la Nueva strategic and of basic services (electricity Mayoría es tal, que incluso siendo and drinking water)”. Finally, it proposes to decriminalize and regulate abortion without el conglomerado que dirige al país, cause, in addition to a dialogue to enable sus integrantes nunca se pusieron euthanasia in the country. de acuerdo para nominar a un Finally, although the forces of Sanchez and her candidato único” command are set to achieve the largest number of votes possible, the idea that goes through the head of the conglomerate is to add a good number

7 Guillier, a journalist by profession and with Eight candidates for the first time in a successful past as a radio and television an election broadcaster, took advantage of all the public and political capital earned in his years of service in Carolina Goic was proclaimed by the DC, but the media and as a senator, to establish himself as does not attract support the most competitive option in La Nueva Mayoria. He has even attracted the support of Angela Jeria, The decision of the Democracia Cristiana to mother of Michelle Bachelet; something that bring its own candidate had to do with the many believe is a camouflaged support from the divergences existing in La Nueva Mayoria, due to president towards him, receiving all the support the way in which they chose Alejandro Guillier, possible. in addition to not achieving a programmatic convergence with their political partners. The polls ranked him second in the preferences, with 21.4 percent, half of the percentage reached The abovementioned added to the traditional by Piñera in the last CEP, and his main campaign role that the party has in the center-left motto is to continue with Bachelet’s legacy. coalition, in which it increasingly enjoys less power of cohesion and conviction, despite the In relation to his proposals, Guillier emphasizes fact that it has the highest representation in social protection and rights; it also focuses on Congress and the largest number of mayors primary health care and its decentralization; within la Nueva Mayoría. while in education, its program focuses on professional technical education and to be able Despite the enthusiasm that Goic has put in the to grant free higher education to 60 percent of campaign, voting rates, according to the CEP young people with fewer resources. survey, never gave him hope (only 4.1 percent marks the Democracia Crisitiana far from the In regards to security, the candidate of La Nueva 21.4 percent of Alejandro Guillier, his main Mayoria aims to provide Carabineros (Chilean contender in La Nueva Mayoria). national police force) with a greater number of uniformed, as well as increase the number Her main proposals are to increase the economic of prosecutors. Finally, regarding the economy, growth of the country through investment in it will seek its diversification leaving aside the infrastructure and stimulation of the productive dependence on raw materials (mainly copper), to investment of public companies; the gratuity focus on the development of infrastructure and of preschool education and the Technical productivity. Professional Training; and increase the police force, in addition to emphasizing on economic “Marco Enríquez-no pierde la crimes and public trust, among others. esperanza de convertirse en In addition, she has been definite in not presidente de Chile, participando giving her support to Sebastian Piñera in a por tercera vez en una contienda second round: “our political domicile is known: the center-left. We must take care of that de este tipo” understanding”.

8 Marco Enríquez-Ominami (MEO), is the third Finally, his economic growth plan for the country one defeated? includes modifying the tax reform and a large public-private investment of US $ 6 billion, and a As it has been during the last two elections, plebiscite to change the Constitution. Marco Enríquez-Ominami, leader of the Partido Progresista (PRO) does not lose the hope of The other candidates becoming president of Chile, participating for the third time in a contest of this type. The ballot was completed with Jose Antonio Kast (independent right), Eduardo Artes, of la MEO has dealt in recent years with different Union Patriotica de Chile (UPA) and Alejandro accusations of corruption, which have led him Navarro (Country Party), who managed to be to be sued by the Council of Defense of the State in the middle of the conversation due to their (CDE) for tax crimes, as fraud to the treasury. The participation in the different debates. complaint would point to a bill of $ 170,800,000 from the 2013 presidential campaign, for services Although in the surveys CEP and Cadem, Artes that were not provided, in addition to having and Navarro never managed to obtain more than issued ballots without supporting the Soquimich 1 percent. They only marked the presence of the mining company, for services rendered between extreme left with proposals ranging from an 2011 and 2013. agenda for security and recovery of the rule of law and a frontal fight against crime and drug Although the option to pass the second round trafficking. was almost null, Enríquez-Ominami was shown throughout the campaign as the continuator Meanwhile, Kast held 2.7 percent of the of the work carried out by Bachelet, and his preferences with a focus on a new Constitution government plan focuses on a society based on and a more sustainable economy and the basic rights, such as education and health. In recovery of natural resources, national relation to the first point, the program offers to industrialization and a re-evaluation of follow the line of the educational reform, staying international treaties. in favor of gradually progressing towards a public education, free and of quality, in addition to ending with the Credit with State Guarantee “Solo marcaron presencia de la (CAE). extrema izquierda con propuestas Meanwhile when it comes to health, he seeks que van desde una agenda pro free access for everyone, focusing on expanding its coverage through the construction of greater seguridad y recuperación del hospital infrastructure. In terms of security, he Estado de Derecho y una lucha opts, like all candidates, to increase the number of carabineros in the streets and the creation of frontal contra la delincuencia y el special prisons for people who commit crimes narcotráfico” linked to drug trafficking.

9 The day of surprises

Huge mistake of the surveys all odds came fourth, with almost 8 percent. Additionally, Carolina Goic obtained 5.88 percent In this complex panorama, with the participation and Marco Enriquez-Ominami came in sixth of eight candidates on the elections, the place with 5.71 percent. Eduardo Artes obtained emblematic surveys (CEP and Cadem) predicted 0.51 percent and Alejandro Navarro 0.36 percent. very different results from those obtained on Sunday. This is an event similar to the one that The predictable run-off happened in the United States with Donald Trump, when all measurements had Hillary In this sense the polls were not wrong. It was the Clinton as the favorite candidate. two candidates that each of them has put them in competition in the ballot. However, the figures The pollsters wrongly estimated the votes of are the ones that will provoke uncertainty during Sebastian Piñera, Beatriz Sanchez and Jose the second round the following 17th of December. Antonio Kast. This fact was more than once It was expected that Piñera achieved a 44 percent highlighted by Frente Amplio and the Democracia and Guillier a figure close to 20 percent, these Cristiana. “Voters speak at the polls, not in the numbers made room for a possible victory of surveys,” was the premise. the candidate of Chile Vamos in the first round. However, the results were others. In its latest survey on October 25, the CEP gave Sebastian Piñera an intention to vote 44.4 percent This leaves a very open scenario for the second and Cadem 45 percent (November 3). On the round, since, although Jose Antonio Kast already other hand, the CEP gave Guillier 19.7 percent and expressed his support for Sebastian Piñera and Cadem 23 percent. Nevertheless, probably the the large number of votes would be mobilized biggest flaw was the projection of votes of Beatriz towards the candidate of the right, this would Sanchez. In regards to the candidate of Frente not be enough. Why? Because this entails that Amplio, the CEP gave her 8.5 percent of the votes Guillier will try to attract all the remaining voters, and Cadem a 14 percent. that is, the representative of La Nueva Mayoria has to negotiate with Frente Amplio to capture In the case of Carolina Goic, Marco Enriquez- 20 percent of Beatriz Sanchez, the Democracia Ominami, Eduardo Artes and Alejandro Navarro, Cristiana and MEO. the polls remained within the margin of error, but they were wrong with Jose Antonio Kast, Figure 5. Presidential Elections Chile 2017 the third surprise of the day, who was given an average of 4 percent by the pollsters. Carolina Goic 5,88% 387.664 votes

José Antonio Kast 7,93% 522.946 votes Official results Sebastián Piñera 36,64% 2.416.054 votes

After an intense day, where literally every vote Alejandro Guillier 22,70% 1,496.560 votes counted, the final results were opposed to the Beatriz Sánchez 20,27% 1.336.622 votes polls, consisting of the following figures: M. Enríquez-Ominami 5,71% 376.406 votes

Sebastian Piñera triumphed with 36.64 percent, Eduardo Artés 33.755 votes (0,51%) seconded by Alejandro Guillier with 22.68 percent. Alejandro Navarro 24.015 votes (0,36%) Then Beatriz Sanchez caught the attention with 0 500.000 1.000.000 1.500.000 2.000.000 2.500.000 3.000.000 a 20.28 percent and Jose Antonio Kast against Source: in house

10 In this sense, Guillier is going to have to sit and consolidation as a new political front with a listen to Frente Amplio, which can presume a representation in Congress, where, faced with any departure from the voters of the left center of reform or decision at the macro level that wants Carolina Goic, who can see in Piñera a more real to be made, they will have to look towards this alternative. sector.

The big winner: Beatriz Sanchez and All this, added to the great percentage of Beatriz Frente Amplio Sanchez, leaves the FA in an excellent position facing the December 17th ballot, since, Alejandro Without further do, about a month ago the Guillier does or will have to look to this sector to results of the CEP survey indicated that Beatriz capture votes, and with the great representation Sanchez would not win more than 9 percent of that has the , can negotiate and the votes. But the reality is diametrically different require Guillier to adapt its program to the and the candidate for Frente Amplio far exceeded slogans of the Broad Front: more social justice, this percentage, reaching 20.28 percent of the vote, AFP end, free education, among other things. translating into 1,336,622 votes and achieving great political capital for the second round. Low voter turnout for Piñera

Frente Amplio (FA) arises from the idea of After not reaching 40 percent of the votes, and defeating the existing bipartisanship in Chile obtaining 36.6 percent, Sebastian Piñera is obliged since the return to democracy: La Nueva to seek an approach with key figures of the break Mayoria and Chile Vamos had been, until now, in his sector, such as Jose Antonio Kast and the two major political coalitions that had led Manuel Jose Ossandon. the country. With the figures in hand, we can conclude that Frente Amplio was consolidated. Kast, who always had a clear, direct speech, and And not only with the high vote of Sanchez, but did not hesitate in front of issues that made other the FA went from having 3 deputies in Congress candidates uncomfortable, was rewarded for that, to the surprise figure of 20 representatives in the obtaining 7.9 percent of the votes. Both figures lower house, and not only that, they also added open a deeper discussion about the center-right a senator for the Valparaíso region, achieving project. settling in the Upper House, This implies its Kast oriented his speech towards Christian values “Tras no alcanzar el 40 % de and the family, thus seducing a sector that was not represented by Sebastian Piñera. However, los votos, y obtener un 36,6 %, the independent candidate, after the elections, Sebastián Piñera está obligado said that he will be available to Chile’s candidate Vamos. Due to the significant number of votes a buscar un acercamiento con achieved, it can have a high negotiating capacity figuras clave del quiebre en su with Piñera. sector, como José Antonio Kast y Piñera must use the “fear factor” to mobilize Manuel José Ossandón” voters for next December 17, and listen to the background to take charge of the fissure

11 within their sector. His former contenders However, the task is quite complex, because in the primaries (Manuel Jose Ossandon and it must achieve “not look bad with anyone”, Felipe Kast) criticize that the former president’s trying to conquer the left, but taking care not to project lacks renewal and a code of values and weaken the support of the center. This is because, ideas, lacks real knowledge of the problems and statistically, the votes of the center-left exceed maintains an elitist view of the country. Both the sum of the support received by Piñera and ask for more definition by Piñera, and more land Kast, which would have high chances of winning or street, which is something that the former a ballot. Of course one thing is political gestures president must evaluate with his command. and quite another is to capture the electorate of the other candidacies of the center-left. Guillier will have to “renew” the policy to attract Beatriz Sanchez’ The meager 5.88 percent received by Carolina Goic voters and also at the parliamentary level, where the DC was left with only 3 senators and 13 deputies, Alejandro Guillier as a candidate of the ruling have plunged the party into a deep crisis, with the party should focus its strategy on achieving the lowest representation of its history in parliament. support of Frente Amplio, since without that 20.28 percent it will be very difficult to defeat Sebastian For many it was a chronicle of a death announced, Piñera. Also, not to mention that in numerical the polls said, and in that they were not mistaken. terms I would also need the support of the DC. This added to the internal breaks passed the account to the party as a major tradition. The end of traditional and conservative politics is the hardest conclusion that La Nueva Mayoria Not only with his 5.8 percent Goic took fewer drew with the unexpected support that Beatriz votes than Jose Antonio Kast, but, by going on a Sanchez obtained, prevailing in several regions separate list of La Nueva Mayoria, the inclusive over her option. proportional electoral system (D’Hont) hit the party hard. In its best time with Eduardo The proposals by Frente Amplio, point to Frei (1997) the DC got to have 30 deputies and profound social transformations, which are 10 senators. accompanied by the renewal of politicians and the end of “the powerful ones of always”. For Prior to the election, the DC was unable to reach that reason, Guillier must capitalize on the agreements and negotiate with the PPD, PS and support that his colleague achieved in voters PC a reasonable parliamentary arrangement, and also because of the strong parliamentary just to not go so badly in Congress. This ended in advance of the FA. Carolina Goic, a day after the vote, renouncing the presidency of the DC for the electoral defeat, so it would not be unreasonable for the party to give its support to Guillier.

12 Uncertain way to the run-off in Piñera meanwhile, said he is committed to “work elections shoulder to shoulder with each senator, deputy and Core (...) I hope to be part, since March, of this The theories for the second round are several, unity government. Every time we have joined and the key questions are: Will Beatriz Sanchez together we have achieved great things, “making support Alejandro Guiller? Will the Christian a gesture of similarity to these results were very Democracy call for a vote for the center-right or similar to those obtained in 2009.” I want to thank center-left? What will happen to the MEO votes? in a special way Jose Antonio Kast”, he added.

Everything is based on a topic of support and negotiations for the second round Piñera-Guillier. Figure 6. Final results per political So far the center-left, represented by former conglomerate3 President Ricardo Lagos, gave his support to the ruling candidate Guillier. Through Twitter, Marco Enríquez-Ominami also gave his support: “The center-left already has a winner. Congratulations to Guillier. I confess that I will vote for him in the second round and I put myself at his disposal, “he wrote on his Twitter, and called Frente Amplio to support him as well.

President Bachelet herself, although not so direct, did call for cohesion in her political sector. “It is the moment of unity around the achievements that we have consolidated together,” he said Sunday from La Moneda once the final figures were already available.

“La centroizquierda ya tiene un ganador. Felicitaciones a Guillier. Transparento que votaré por él en segunda vuelta y me pongo a su disposición”

Source: emol.com

3 Emol.com

13 Effect on the market

Many wondered on Sunday what would happen The “Piñera factor” was constantly mentioned in the market with the low result of Piñera and by market players as one of the reasons for the the real possibility that Alejandro Guillier could upturn. Until Friday, November 17, the indicator win in the second round. Well, today the Santiago accumulated an increase of almost 30 percent in Stock Exchange fell more than 3 percent in its the year, one of the best performances among first operations. emerging market stock markets.

At 10 o’clock in the morning, the Selective Stock Price Index (IPSA), fell 3.31 percent, falling back to 5,213.47 points. What is the reason for this occurrence? Chile’s candidate Vamos, Sebastian “El “factor Piñera” fue Piñera, throughout the campaign was the favorite constantemente mencionado por of the markets, however, the lower vote than expected, generated uncertainty during this los actores del mercado como uno morning. de los motivos del repunte”

The advantaged position of Piñera in the polls, which gave him more than 40 percent of the preferences, would have helped the Santiago stock market reach record highs in recent months.

14 Very high abstention

The abstention was again one of the negative La Nueva Mayoria, because Guillier needs that points of the elections, as the increase in the voter support, without him, he has no chance to win. If registry caused the percentage of abstention to go the FA is added, in addition to MEO, Guillier does from 50.7 percent to around 54 percent this year. not need the votes of Goic. This means that statistically less than half of the population eligible to vote exercised their right. In this difficult context, representative democracy has been affected by a crisis in politics and the When the change to voluntary voting and corruption of power, generating a lack of interest automatic registration was made in 2012, the in citizens, and who is indifferent to who governs. electoral roll increased sharply, and with it the abstention has been increasing. In Chile today, where it seems that the center-left cannot understand who it wants to represent and If we look at the glass half full, this election had the right resembles the ideas of social democracy, better participation than the last municipal ones, conservative and traditional politicians still do where the levels were around 34 percent, of the not understand the country they wish to govern. lowest that have existed in Chile. The citizen power will be the one that will The scenario for the second round looks like define the next president of Chile, because they this: Guillier can win without the DC, but Piñera understand that times change and politicians, if cannot win without it. Probably the votes of they want to be successful, must combine their Kast are going to add almost all to Piñera, but the way of acting with the time they have lived. question is whether the Broad Front will support

15 2. Parliamentary elections

The recent presidential and parliamentary It was expected that within this vote there would election marked the establishment of the new be surprises regarding the choice of new faces, Inclusive Proportional Electoral System, which however, the results were out of all kinds of ended 25 years of the binomial system, which forecasts. The most important news linked to the strongly benefited the country’s first minority, Parliamentarians, has to do with the appearan- since the winning party had to double the votes ce of a new caucus in the Chamber of Deputies, of the second force to achieve the second place in led by Frente Amplio (FA), a left-wing political Congress, so that the rest of the minorities were coalition that established itself as the third most excluded. important benchmark in Chile.

To approve these regulations in Congress, the The group, led by deputies Giorgio Jackson, of government of Michelle Bachelet made intense the Democratic Revolution (DR), Gabriel Boric, efforts in the Senate and Chamber of Deputies of the Autonomist Movement, and Beatriz San- to modify the old system, which restricted the chez (presidential candidate), managed to elect access of new political parties and benefited only 20 deputies out of a total of 155, so they will have the two major political blocs (La Nueva Mayoria the 13 percent of the seats in the Lower House. In and Chile Vamos), which generated inequality in addition, they managed to elect a senator: Juan the new leaderships that were forming over time. Latorre (RD), in Valparaíso, who was helped by the support of the current mayor of the city, Jorge Thus, with the beginning of the reform imple- Sharp, member of the Autonomist Movement. mented by the Government, among the changes stand out the increase from 120 to 155 deputies With these results, an end to the existing duopoly and the decrease from 60 to 28 districts where in Congress, led since the return to democracy they compete, in order to improve representative- by Chile Vamos (ex Alianza por Chile) and the ness. In the case of senators, of whom only 23 of Nueva Mayoria (former Concertación), is ended. the 43 representatives were chosen, they increa- Thus, starting in March of next year, the Broad sed from 38 to 50 and a single constituency was Front will play a fundamental role, whatever the established by region. government, when negotiating majorities. The 20 deputies will be decisive when it comes to agree- First major renovation in the ing reforms in Parliament. Congress since 1990: the victory of Frente Amplio “The duopoly ended. This force is here to stay, it came to be a significant force. Although today it After the end of the voting, and with the results is still a minority, from the institutional point of provided by the Electoral Service (Servel), the view it is significant, “said Latorre, the first sena- parliamentary election of November 19 resulted tor of the Broad Front to be elected. in a series of victories, 109 new faces, many of which had never even stepped on the National Congress. This, in relation to the fact that only 84 “Con estos resultados se pone fin al parliamentarians applied for re-election, that is, duopolio existente en el Congreso, the lowest percentage of traditional candidates since the return to democracy. liderado desde el regreso a la democracia por Chile Vamos (...) y la Nueva Mayoría”

16 Chile Vamos gets good results, yet not On the other hand, in addition to RN, the Politi- a majority cal Evolution party (Evopoli) was another of the winners of the right. This is because they chose Although the results obtained by Sebastian two senators for the first time since its founda- Piñera in the presidential elections did not please tion (December 12, 2012) thanks to the triumph everyone in the Chilean center-right, the votes ob- of Felipe Kast, former presidential candidate of tained by Chile Vamos on the election of deputies the party in the Araucanía region, and his list and senators left a good impression for the con- mate Carmen Gloria Aravena, who, thanks to glomerate. This is because the pact increased its the new electoral system, achieved a seat by the representativeness from 36 percent to 46 percent same constituency. This result is added to the six as of March 2018. deputies who were elected, including the former Minister of Culture, Luciano Cruz Coke and the Under this logic, who obtained the best results former athlete Sebastian Keitel. within the coalition was National Renovation (RN), which became the party with more deputies Despite the good results of the coalition, it did not in the country, thanks to the election of 36 candi- reach them to surpass 50 percent of the represen- dates, much higher than the 14 obtained in 2013 tation of both houses (44.2 percent in the Senate “We are very happy, because we were once again and 47.1 percent in the Chamber of Deputies), the biggest match in Chile. In the past municipal which, without a doubt, will force to seek agree- elections we had already been, but that had to be ments based on the new bills that are presented consolidated. This is a job where we leave nothing as of 2018, whatever the government of the day. to chance, “said its President, Cristián Moncke- berg. In addition, in the Upper House, RN ma- Fuerza de la Mayoría gets mixed naged to choose six more senators, so it reached results eight representatives. The list, Fuerza de la Mayoria, made up of the So- For its part, the Independent Democratic Union cialist Party (PS), the Communist Party (PC), the (UDI) won the election of 31 deputies and 4 sena- Social Democratic Radical Party (PRSD) and the tors, however, it fell short of the projections they Party for Democracy (PPD), did not achieve all the had made, which left in a bad way the helmsman expected results. However, it was consolidated as of the party, Jacqueline Van Rysselberghe, prior the second most important force in the Chamber to the vote, the leaders of the institution said that of Deputies, with 27.74 percent. their management would be evaluated according to this parliamentary election. “La votación obtenida por Chile The reason for this is the misdiagnosis made on Vamos en la elección de diputados the election, where he “underestimated” the Broad Front and Jose Antonio Kast (former militant and y senadores dejó un buen sabor who resigned to compete in the presidential), and para el conglomerado (...) de un missed the percentages of support that Sebastian would achieve Piñera 36 % a un 46 %”

17 Within the PS they drew happy accounts, after only choose 13 deputies (out of a total of 104 that choosing three senators: the former interior mi- showed up) and three senators. Thus, in percenta- nister, Jose Miguel Insulza (Arica and Parinacota ge terms, the DC has 11.62 percent representative- Region), Isabel Allende (Valparaíso) and the party’s ness in the Senate and 9 percent in the Chamber President, Alvaro Elizalde (Maule). In addition, of Deputies. they added 19 deputies of the 43 of Fuerza de la Mayoría, thus achieving the largest bench in the The decision not to participate in La Nueva Ma- La Nueva Mayoria. yoria primaries had great costs for the phalanx, which achieved just over one million one hundred Otherwise it was what happened with the PPD, thousand votes less than Alejandro Guillier. In which suffered a strong defeat in the Chamber: it addition, it was surpassed by Jose Antonio Kast, could only choose four senators and eight de- the independent candidate of the right, by 135 puties, well below the 12 and 15 representatives thousand votes, and by Frente Amplio, which has expected, with only 6.09 percent of the votes to just a year of life as a coalition. Nacional level. But the defeat not only suffered the figure of Finally, the PRSD and the PC managed to rise Carolina Goic, but historical representatives of from 6 to 8 representatives in the Lower House, the party saw how their candidacies were not but they did not get any seats in the Senate. among those preferred by the people. The emble- matic Andrés Zaldívar and Ignacio Walker, among Democracia Cristiana gets its worst others, lost their respective seats in the Region of historical result Maule and Valparaíso, respectively. Those who did show their face for the match were Yasna Provos- The low percentage of support obtained by the te and Ximena Rincón, elected senators from the presidential candidate of the Christian Demo- Atacama Region and from Maule, respectively. cracy (DC), Carolina Goic (5.88 percent), was the simile of the performance of the party’s parlia- This situation caused that historical recognize mentary list, called Convergencia Democrática. that with the unsuccessful bet of Goic takes a It was, without doubt, its worst electoral result first step for the deep restructuring that needs since the return to democracy, because they could the party, whose speech will center the bases for its future. Finally, the dissidence of the party ca- lled for the resignation of Carolina Goic from the DC presidency, inviting her to take responsibility “La decisión de no participar for the meager electoral results, a fact that finally en unas primarias de la Nueva became a reality during Monday, November 20.

Mayoría tuvo grandes costos para The former candidate announced her decision, la falange, que logró poco más de prior to the national party council, where the re- sults would be analyzed. “All DCs are responsible un millón cien mil votos menos for the decisions we make, and I am responsible que Alejandro Guillier” for their conduct,” he said.

18 Renewal of faces: the fall of the cussion will be very difficult. Something similar emblematic ones will happen with the community led by Velasco, which, not having the number of elected parlia- The renewal of the Congress also meant the de- mentarians could be at risk of disappearing from parture of emblematic faces from politics, from all the political system, leaving the political forces of coalitions. Andrés Zaldívar (DC), Gustavo Hasbún the center without representation. (UDI), Fulvio Rossi (former PS), Ignacio Walker (DC), Camilo Escalona (PS), Andrea Molina (UDI) Increase of female representation and Jorge Tarud (PPD), among others, were some of the recognized faces that lost their seats. This If there is anything that allowed this new voting shows that the slogan used by the new move- model was the massive participation of women ments based on the renewal of the policy was in the various electoral battles that were fought reflected in the parliamentary elections. in all the districts of the country. In fact, after the results, the winning female representation rose Various reasons may be given regarding these from 15.8 percent to 22.7 percent in the Chamber results, whether it is a boredom on the part of so- of Deputies, managing to capture 35 parliamen- ciety - and of the new generations - to always see tary seats. the same faces in politics, as well as the fact that the new electoral system prevented Independent Meanwhile, the number of senators that was elec- candidates with a high vote, such as Fulvio Rossi ted in this vote increased from 6 to 10 members. In or Jose Manuel “Rojo” Edwards, will achieve a seat total, they will be 23.2 percent of the Upper House. in Congress. All this was due to the establishment of a new Disappearance of the political center quota law, which came hand in hand with the Electoral Reform that President Bachelet made. Amplitude and Citizens, most emblematic par- This process was not easy for the parties, since ties of the political center in Chile, stayed out the main difficulty they had to face was to meet of Congress after the elections. Lily Pérez (Am- the 40 percent of women registered in their res- plitude), who was running for the Senate in the pective lists of candidates for parliament. Valparaíso Region, was left out with 5.4 percent of the vote, while the former minister of the first government of Michelle Bachelet, Andrés Velasco “Diversas razones se podrán dar (Citizens), was left out. the High Chamber to not con respecto a estos resultados, ya achieve a quota for the Maule, with 10.5 percent of the votes. sea un aburrimiento por parte de la sociedad (...) por ver siempre los While Amplitude managed to stay in Congress, from March next year will not have Perez, his mismos rostros en la política” main figure, so projecting within the political dis-

19 In fact, the Servel described as historical the Figura 7. Nueva Cámara de Diputados4 feminine participation for the parliamentarians. Of the total registered, 41.3 percent were women, surpassing the historical average of 11.25 percent. However, despite these high levels of partici- pation, the results were not positive. National Renovation, the UDI and the Democratic Revolu- tion did not achieve any elected senator, while, in deputies, the Christian Democracy, Amplitude and Evopoli will not have female participation.

Congress will be segmented into three poles

The presidential and parliamentary elections completely reconfigure a Congress that has not undergone major modifications during the last 27 years, due to the end of the binomial system and the beginning of an Inclusive Proportional 4 Fuente: El Mercurio, lunes 20 de noviembre. Electoral System.

Under that logic, and with the results in hand, Chile Vamos achieved a total of 73 seats in the Figura 8. El Senado que espera al próximo Chamber of Deputies (to six of the absolute Presidente5 majority). Meanwhile, Fuerza de la Mayoria got 43 charges, which, if we add the 13 that the Democra- cia Cristiana achieved, they would make a total of 56 deputies (such as La Nueva Mayoria). Conside- ring Frente Amplio broke with 20 candidates, who achieved a place in the Lower House.

There are floating in space, a quota, won by the Progressive Party (PRO) of Marco Enrí- quez-Ominami, four regionalist deputies and one independent.

5 Fuente: El Mercurio, lunes 20 de noviembre.

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