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China's International Behavior THE ARTS This PDF document was made available CHILD POLICY from www.rand.org as a public service of CIVIL JUSTICE the RAND Corporation. EDUCATION ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT Jump down to document6 HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit NATIONAL SECURITY research organization providing POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY objective analysis and effective SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY solutions that address the challenges SUBSTANCE ABUSE facing the public and private sectors TERRORISM AND HOMELAND SECURITY around the world. TRANSPORTATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE Support RAND WORKFORCE AND WORKPLACE Purchase this document Browse Books & Publications Make a charitable contribution For More Information Visit RAND at www.rand.org Explore RAND Project AIR FORCE View document details Limited Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law as indicated in a notice appearing later in this work. This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non-commercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND PDFs to a non-RAND Web site is prohibited. RAND PDFs are protected under copyright law. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see RAND Permissions. This product is part of the RAND Corporation monograph series. RAND monographs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND mono- graphs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. CHINA’s INTERNATIONAL BEHAVIOR Activism, Opportunism, and Diversification Evan S. Medeiros Prepared for the United States Air Force Approved for public release; distribution unlimited PROJECT AIR FORCE The research described in this report was sponsored by the United States Air Force under Contract FA7014-06-C-0001. Further information may be obtained from the Strategic Planning Division, Directorate of Plans, Hq USAF. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Medeiros, Evan S. China’s international behavior : activism, opportunism, and diversification / Evan S. Medeiros. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 978-0-8330-4709-0 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. China—Foreign relations—21st century. 2. National security—China. 3. China—Economic polcy—21st century. 4. China—Foreign relations—United States. 5. United States—Foreign relations—China. I. Title. JZ1730.A5M435 2009 327.51— dc22 2009026441 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. Cover design by Carol Earnest. © Copyright 2009 RAND Corporation Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes. Unauthorized posting of RAND documents to a non-RAND Web site is prohibited. RAND documents are protected under copyright law. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND permissions page (http://www.rand.org/publications/permissions.html). Published 2009 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Preface The expanding scope of China’s international activities is one of the newest and most important trends in global affairs. China is increas- ingly present and involved in many parts of the world, including in regions once only marginal to Beijing’s interests. China’s global activ- ism has arisen so rapidly and has so many dimensions that it immedi- ately and naturally raises questions about China’s intentions and the implications for U.S. security interests. U.S. policymakers and strate- gists would like to understand more fully how China defines its inter- national objectives, how it is pursuing them, how effective it has been, and whether it seeks to undermine U.S. power and influence. To address these issues, this monograph analyzes the content, character, and execution of China’s international behavior. It examines how China views its security environment, how it defines its foreign policy objectives, how it is pursuing these objectives, and the conse- quences for U.S. economic and security interests. The breadth and the rapidity of change in China’s international activities are daunting to analyze, let alone to understand. This monograph aims to make such assessments more accessible and meaningful. This research is relevant for U.S. policymakers and strategists who are focused on managing U.S.-China relations, on shaping Chi- nese diplomacy, and on ensuring that China’s global activism does not undercut U.S. foreign policy goals. This research also helps identify opportunities for the United States and China to broaden and deepen bilateral cooperation. iii iv China’s International Behavior: Activism, Opportunism, and Diversification This monograph is part of a substantial and growing body of RAND Corporation research that examines the security implications for the United States of China’s growing power and influence—both as a military and as a diplomatic power. The research reported here was conducted by the Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE and was sponsored by the U.S. Air Force’s Director of Operational Plans and Joint Matters (AF/A5X) and the Combatant Commander of the Pacific Air Forces (PACAF/CC) for a study enti- tled “The U.S.-China Security Relationship: Taiwan and Beyond.” It builds on previous RAND Project AIR FORCE work, including the following: • Evan S. Medeiros, Keith Crane, Eric Heginbotham, Norman D. Levin, Julia F. Lowell, Angel Rabassa, and Somi Seong, Pacific Currents: The Responses of U.S. Allies and Security Partners in East Asia to China’s Rise, MG-736-AF, 2008. • Roger Cliff, Mark Burles, Michael Chase, Derek Eaton, and Kevin Pollpeter, Entering the Dragon’s Lair: Chinese Anti-Access Strategies and Their Implications for the United States, MG-524-AF, 2007. • Roger Cliff and David A. Shlapak, U.S.-China Relations After Resolution of Taiwan’s Status, MG-567-AF, 2007. • Evan S. Medeiros, Roger Cliff, Keith Crane, and James C. Mulvenon, A New Direction for China’s Defense Industry, MG-334-AF, 2005. • Keith Crane, Roger Cliff, Evan S. Medeiros, James C. Mulvenon, and William H. Overholt, Modernizing China’s Military: Oppor- tunities and Constraints, MG-260-AF, 2005. RAND Project AIR FORCE RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Cor- poration, is the U.S. Air Force’s federally funded research and devel- opment center for studies and analyses. PAF provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the devel- opment, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and Preface v future aerospace forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Force Modernization and Employment; Manpower, Personnel, and Train- ing; Resource Management; and Strategy and Doctrine. Additional information about PAF is available on our Web site: http://www.rand.org/paf/ Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figures ............................................................................. xi Tables .............................................................................xiii Summary ..........................................................................xv Acknowledgments ............................................................. xxv Abbreviations ..................................................................xxvii CHAPTER ONE Introduction ....................................................................... 1 CHAPTER TWO China’s Foreign Policy Outlook................................................ 7 The Three Lenses ................................................................... 7 National Revitalization .......................................................... 7 A Victim Mentality .............................................................10 Defensive Security Outlook ...................................................11 Long-Term Diplomatic Priorities ................................................13 Sovereignty and Territorial Integrity .........................................14 Economic Development .......................................................15 International Status .............................................................16 CHAPTER THREE Current Perceptions of the International Security Environment .......19 Major Power Conflict .............................................................21 Globalization and Multipolarity ............................................... 26 vii viii China’s International Behavior: Activism, Opportunism, and Diversification Globalization .................................................................. 26 Multipolarity ................................................................... 27 U.S. Power and Great Power Relations .......................................
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