Greece's Painful Political Transition
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INTERNATIONAL POLICY ANALYSIS Greece’s Painful Political Transition Analysis of the Upcoming National Elections NICK MALKOUTZIS May 2012 The 6 May general elections in Greece promise to be like no other in the country’s recent history. Since 1974, the country has been governed almost exclusively by centre-left PASOK and centre-right New Democracy, which have usually gathered more than 80 percent of the vote. However, opinion polls indicate this could be halved on May 6 and neither party will be able to form a government on its own. The sharp decline in the two parties’ popularity is a result of the damaging impact of the crisis, the unpopularity of some of the measures agreed with the European Union and International Monetary Fund and a disenchantment with the established political system. Greece’s parties have split into two broad camps: those who are willing to adhere to the EU-IMF loan agreement, or Memorandum, and those who oppose it and want it changed or scrapped. The options for coalition agreements after 6 May are limited since few parties are willing to cooperate with New Democracy and PASOK as that would entail implementing further austerity. Beyond the EU-IMF memorandum, other crisis-related issues such as growth and jobs, immigration and social cohesion have prominent positions on the electoral agenda. After five years of recession and two years of tough austerity, Greek society is in a state of flux. This has generated a sense of doubt that is reflected in the uncertainty about what will emerge from the period of political transition that Greece is going through. Nick Malkoutzis | GreeCe’S Painful Political Transition Content 1. The Last Days of the Political Old Guard. 3 2. A fragmented Political Scene. 5 2.1 The Pro-Memorandum camp . 6 2.2 Memorandum Moderates. 8 2.3 The Anti-Memorandum Camp on the Left . 8 2.4 The Anti-Memorandum Camp on the Right . 9 2.5 Smaller Parties and the Winning Threshold. 10 3. Elections through the Prism of the Crisis . 11 4. Dominant election Themes. 12 4.1 Austerity . 12 4.2 Growth and Jobs . 13 4.3 Other Issues . 16 5. Protest and Participation . 20 6. A Difficult and Uncertain Transition . 22 1 Nick Malkoutzis | GreeCe’S Painful Political Transition 1. The Last Days of the Political Old Guard Table 1 The parliamentary elections due to take place in Greece Year PASOK % New Both Democracy % parties % on 6 May promise to be a watershed in the country’s political history. For only the second time since the mid- 1974 13.58 54.37 67.95 1970s, it is highly unlikely that either the centre-left 1977 25.34 41.84 67.18 PASOK or the centre-right New Democracy will be able 1981 48.07 35.88 83.95 to gather enough support to form a government on its 1985 45.82 40.84 86.66 own. 1989 39.13 44.28 83.41 (June) Since last year, opinion polls have been showing a rise 1989 40.67 46.19 86.86 in the popularity of the three left-wing parties: the dog- (November) matic Communist Party (KKE), the hard-left Coalition of 1990 38.61 46.89 85.50 the Radical Left (SYRIZA) and the more moderate Dem- ocratic Left. A new party, Social Pact, was formed this 1993 46.88 39.30 86.18 March by MPs ousted from PASOK: it might also draw 1996 41.49 38.12 79.61 some PASOK supporters. 2000 43.79 42.73 86.52 2004 40.55 45.36 85.91 On the right, New Democracy faces a threat from the 2007 38.10 41.84 79.94 nationalists of the Popular Orthodox Rally (LAOS) and the newly-formed Independent Greeks, which was also 2009 43.92 33.48 77.40 set up by deputies forced out of the conservative party. Beyond that, a number of smaller parties, including the Over the past four decades, PASOK and New Democracy neo-fascist Chrysi Avgi and the Ecologist Greens appear have built an economic model based largely around the to be on the cusp of entering Parliament. public sector and a prevalent patron–client relationship between the parties and voters, either on an individual Greece is witnessing the end of the era in which just two level or as professional groups or unions. parties took turns in running the country. Spending on civil servants’ salaries, public procurements PASOK and New Democracy have dominated Greek poli- and social benefits grew steadily from the early 1980s tics since the fall of the military dictatorship in 1974, and formed the basis of interaction between politicians garnering more than 80 per cent of the vote at most of these two parties and the public. Through hirings in elections. Barring an unsuccessful five-month coalition the public sector and constant legislative interventions between ND and leftists in 1989, these two parties have often aimed at favouring particular groups, PASOK and shaped Greece over the past 38 years. Recent surveys New Democracy extended Greece’s labyrinthine bureau- suggest that support for both parties could sink to record cracy. This benefited a number of professional sectors, low levels at the upcoming elections. A survey by one of such as notaries, lawyers, civil engineers and account- Greece’s leading polling companies, Public Issue, pub- ants, who gained guaranteed work and income as their lished on 20 April,1 indicated that combined support for services were required for even the most basic operations the two parties might struggle to reach even 40 per cent. in the private sector. Both parties also pandered to trade unions and other professional groups in the private sector and shied away from serious structural reforms, such as an overhaul of Greece’s pension system or the liberalisation of closed professions. Furthermore, PASOK and New Democracy took advantage of the lack of transparency with regard 1. Public Issue: »Political Barometer Number 104, First Half of April to party funding and an absence of political accountabil- 2012«, available at: http://www.publicissue.gr/2002/varometro-apr- 2012-3o-ektakto-kyma/. ity – characterised by a law that grants MPs and ministers 3 Nick Malkoutzis | GreeCe’S Painful Political Transition immunity from prosecution – to develop questionable nomic, political and social flux that the upcoming elec- and sometimes corrupt relationships with private com- tions will take place. panies and businessmen. With the two main parties finding it hard to attract com- The course of Greek politics over the past four decades bined support of about 40 per cent, Greece is on track has largely been defined by what Stavros Lygeros, author for the sort of election result that it has not seen in more of the book From Kleptocracy to Bankruptcy, refers to as than six decades, as Yiannis Mavris, the CEO of Public the »unwritten social contract«. In other words, many Issue,2 explains. voters were willing to turn a blind eye to waste and cor- ruption in the public sector and broader inefficiencies, »In Greek political history, such low percentages for the such as tax evasion, in the private sector as long as the two main parties were last recorded 62 years ago during politicians responsible rewarded them with civil service the first post-civil war elections, held in 1950,« he wrote jobs, public procurement contracts or social benefits or in a recent analysis. »Today’s fragmentation of the politi- by leaving alone the profitable enclaves created by some cal powers can take on such ideological and political pro- professional groups. portions that it will be similar to the fragmentation of the 1950 elections. Then, it was the result of Nazi occupation However, the economic and social devastation wreaked and the Civil War; today it will be the political and elec- by the economic crisis over the past few years has shat- toral result of implementing the EU-IMF Memorandum.« tered the social contract that Lygeros describes. The lack of public money and the pressure for structural reforms The signing of the first memorandum in May 2010 and applied by the »troika« comprising the International the second agreement in February 2012 are landmarks Monetary Fund, the European Central Bank and the Eu- because they defined the way Greece will tackle its eco- ropean Commission, however, mean that Greek politi- nomic crisis, the country’s position in the EU and the rela- cians have lost their traditional policy tools. Meanwhile, tions between the parties and the electorate. While the there is a growing realisation among many in Greece of past few years have brought unprecedented turbulence the damage the country has suffered as a result of the to Greece’s relations with its European partners, this unquestioning support that New Democracy and PASOK hardly compares to the political and social unrest experi- have enjoyed since the 1970s. enced within the country. The final factor that has undermined support for the In May 2010, a wedge was driven deep into Greek pol- two main parties is the unpopularity of the measures itics. The PASOK government drew support only from adopted, first by PASOK and then by the coalition gov- LAOS in its decision to sign the Memorandum. New De- ernment as part of the two bailouts Greece has agreed mocracy’s decision to oppose the agreement saw the cre- with the Eurozone and the IMF. While support for struc- ation of an anti-Memorandum camp with roots in the tural reforms remains strong, the deepening recession political mainstream, not just on the hard left or right. Greece has been suffering since 2008 has eroded peo- As a consequence, the political debate over the past two ple’s confidence.