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François Legault Favourability

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Quebec Politics in the time of Public Opinion Research Release Date: June 09, 2020 COVID-19: June 2020 Update Field Dates: May 29, 2020 to June 01, 2020 STRICTLY PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL 2 Quebec Politics in the time of COVID-19 The COVID-19 outbreak has set off a series of changes in the Canadian political landscape. In Quebec, Legault still sees a very high approval on his handling of the outbreak that translated into a increase in his personal favourables, which has remained stable since March 2020. Today, INNOVATIVE is releasing results from wave 8 of our COVID-19 Tracking survey. This online survey was in field from May 29th to June 1st with a weighted sample size of 600 Ontario residents. Detailed methodology is provided in the appendix. This report covers key results on how those from Quebec are rating their government’s handling of the COVID-19 outbreak, their vote choice, and satisfaction with government handling of several issues related to the outbreak. COVID-19 Handling The Quebec government continues to receive high approval on handling of COVID-19, in line with the average of all provincial governments. STRICTLY PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL COVID-19 Handling: Over 2-in-3 (68%) say they are generally satisfied 4 with performance of the Quebec gov’t while 1-in-5 (17%) say dissatisfied Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Quebec Government has handled the outbreak of COVID-19? [asked of all respondents; n=300] Approve: 68% 37% 31% Disapprove: 17% 11% 10% 6% 4% Strongly approve Somewhat approve Neither approve nor Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Don't know disapprove Current data: June 2020 COVID-19 Handling Tracking: Those who say they ‘approve’ of the 5 gov’t handling is up 6-pts month-to-month from 62% to 68% Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Quebec Government has handled the outbreak of COVID-19? [asked of all respondents; n=300] 4% 4% 3% 4% 6% 7% 10% 11% 26% 31% 55% 37% Mar-20 Mar-20 (2) Apr-20 Apr-20 (2) Apr-20 (3) May-20 Jun-20 Strongly approve Somewhat approve Neither approve nor disapprove Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Don't know Current data: June 2020 COVID-19 Handling Tracking: The Quebec government is now in line 6 with the provincial average approval % who approve of government’s handling of COVID-19 outbreak: Quebec Vs. Provincial Average [asked of all respondents; n=300] Quebec 81% 83% 76% 72% 69% 68% 69% Provincial Average 69% 67% 69% 66% 68% 63% 62% March 16-18 March 24-26 March 31-April April 9-13 April 20-22 May 1-5 May 29-June 1 2 Current data: May 2020 We group individuals into segments based on key political and economic values and attitudes We use these segments throughout the remainder of the report to analyze vote and leadership results. STRICTLY PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL Core Political Values: Over half (54%) say the government should 8 listen to experts when it comes to policy Now we would like to ask a few questions about basic values and Is the main role of government to…? society...When governments make major decisions concerning spending [asked of all respondents; n=300] on programs and services, do you think they should be basing their To create equal opportunity so that decisions mainly on…? everyone can compete on their own to be 49% [asked of all respondents; n=300] the best they can be Their ability to afford the programs and To redistribute wealth so that the poor 32% services and disadvantaged have more than they 40% The public's need for the programs and would if left on their own 53% services Don't know 11% Don't know 15% Which of the following statements comes closest to your view? When it comes to government decision making, which of the following [asked of all respondents; n=300] statements is closest to your view? [asked of all respondents; n=300] The profit system brings out the worst in Too often the government listens to 29% 34% human nature. experts instead of common sense. Provincial issues are complicated so The profit system teaches people the 47% government should listen to experts when 54% value of hard work and success. it comes to policy. Don't Know Don't know 24% 12% Current data: June 2020 Value Clusters: 1-in-3 (32%) are Business Liberals followed by 20% for 9 Thrifty Moderates are the largest clusters in Quebec Clusters are based on 4 basic values: equal opportunity versus redistribution; trust in the profit system; whether spending should be based on ability to afford or public need; and whether government should listen to experts or common sense. [asked of all respondents; n=300] Core Left, 17% Deferential Conservatives, 16% Populist Conservatives, 5% Thrifty Moderates, 20% Business Liberals, 32% Left Liberals, 11% Current data: June 2020 Defining Value Clusters: Liberal clusters split on the role of the profit 10 system, Conservative clusters split on deference towards authority Core Political Values by Value Clusters Deferential Populist Business Thrifty Column % Left Liberals Core Left Conservatives Conservatives Liberals Moderates Governments should base Ability to afford 83% 82% 0% 0% 73% 0% decisions on... Public Need 0% 0% 95% 84% 0% 84% Is the main role of government Create equal Opportunity 68% 90% 55% 98% 27% 0% to…? Redistribute wealth 27% 0% 36% 0% 45% 95% Rely on common sense When it comes to government 0% 100% 31% 41% 45% 35% decision making... Listen to experts 94% 0% 59% 49% 29% 55% Brings out the worst in human 0% 0% 0% 64% 56% 64% nature The profit system... Teaches value of hard work and 85% 79% 86% 0% 11% 0% success Note: Current data: June 2020 Segmentation Attitudes: 2-in-3 (67%) believe that in Quebec, you can 11 be anything you want if you’re willing to work for it Do you agree or disagree with the following statements? [asked of all respondents; n=300] y Here in Quebec you can be anything you want if you are willing to work for 40% 27% 16% 8% 4%4% it x No matter how hard I work, every year it seems more difficult to get by 24% 27% 21% 12% 10% 5% Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither agree nor disagree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Don't know Current data: June 2020 Economic Gap Segmentation: A plurality (36%) are Dream Strugglers 12 while 31% are Dream Achievers Gap segmentation: Agree with 'Here in Quebec you can be anything you want if you are willing to work for it’ (“the Canadian Dream”) BY Agree with 'No matter how hard I work, every year it seems more difficult to get by'. [asked of all respondents; n=300] Don’t believe in “Canadian Dream” Alienated, 12% Achievers, 31% Believe in “Canadian Dream”, Ambivalent, 21% not struggling to get by Neutral or don’t know on “Canadian Dream” Strugglers, 36% Believe in “Canadian Dream”, but find it difficult to get by Current data: June 2020 Time for Change Attitudes: Two-in-five (44%) disagree that it is time 13 for a change in government Do you agree or disagree with the following statements? [asked of all respondents; n=300] y It is time for a change in government here in Quebec 17% 11% 21% 17% 27% 7% x The CAQ may have their problems but they are still the best party to form 28% 22% 22% 11% 10% 8% government Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither agree nor disagree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Don't know Current data: June 2020 Time for Change Segmentation: 1-in-3 (33%) are Core CAQ supporters; 14 only 7% are hostile Time for Change segmentation: Agree with 'The CAQ may have their problems but they are still the best party to form government' BY Agree with 'It is time for a change in government here in Quebec'. [asked of all respondents; n=300] 7% 27% Agree that it is time for a change and do not see CAQ as 20% 33% the best option to form government 46% Do not think it is time for a change 18% This key battleground segment is voters who think it is time for a 13% change, but still think the CAQ are the best option to form a government 10% Core CAQ Soft CAQ Time for a change CAQ Uncertain Soft anti-CAQ Hostile Current data: June 2020 Leadership Francois Legault remains by far the most popular party leader in Quebec, the only one with a positive net approval rating. Nearly half (46%) of respondents say that he is the best choice for Premier of Quebec. STRICTLY PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL Leader Favourables: Of the party leaders, Legault has the highest net 16 favourability at +40% while Châteauneuf has the lowest (-11%) Below are the names of several individuals who have been mentioned in the news recently. For each one, please indicate whether you have heard of that person and, if so, whether you have a very favourable, somewhat favourable, neither favourable or unfavourable, somewhat unfavourable or very unfavourable impression of that person. If you do not recognize the name, just indicate. [asked of all respondents; n=300] Net Favourable y François Legault 33% 24% 12% 10% 8% 13% +40% Pascal Bérubé 9% 14% 28% 12% 12% 26% -2% x Dominique Anglade 11% 14% 24% 15% 13% 23% -2% Gaétan Châteauneuf 6% 6% 22% 11% 12% 43% -11% Very favourable Somewhat favourable Neither favourable nor unfavourable Somewhat unfavourable Very unfavourable Don't know + don't recognize Current data: June 2020 François Legault Favourability: Those who say they are favourable 17 towards Legault (58%) steady since March Below are the names of several individuals who have been mentioned in the news recently.
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