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Monthly Mortality Analysis, England and Wales: January 2021

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Monthly Mortality Analysis, England and Wales: January 2021 Statistical bulletin Monthly mortality analysis, England and Wales: January 2021 Provisional death registration data for England and Wales, broken down by sex, age and country. Includes deaths due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) and leading causes of death. Contact: Release date: Next release: Danielle Cornish 25 February 2021 18 March 2021 [email protected] +44 (0)1329 444110 Correction 26 May 2021 10:47 Within the "Definition of COVID-19" section of "Measuring the data" an incorrect percentage of 41.0% was originally published rather than 4.1%. This has now been corrected and no other figures were affected. We apologise for any inconvenience caused. Page 1 of 26 Table of contents 1. Main points 2. Death registrations and the overall mortality rate for January 2021 3. Deaths due to COVID-19 registered in January 2021 4. Leading causes of death 5. Age-standardised mortality rates by sex and age group, in January 2021 6. Death occurrences in January 2021 7. Pre-existing conditions of people whose death was recorded with an underlying cause of COVID-19, deaths registered in 2020 8. Monthly mortality data 9. Glossary 10. Measuring the data 11. Strengths and limitations 12. Related links Page 2 of 26 1 . Main points In January 2021, there were 68,796 deaths registered in England, 15,685 deaths (29.5%) more than the five-year average (2015 to 2019) for January; in Wales, there were 4,431 deaths registered, 904 deaths (25.6%) more than the five-year average for January. The coronavirus (COVID-19) was the leading cause of death in January 2021 for the third consecutive month in both England (accounting for 37.4% of all deaths registered in January) and in Wales (35.2% of all deaths). The second-leading cause of death was dementia and Alzheimer's disease in England, and ischaemic heart disease in Wales; COVID-19 accounted for more than four times the number of deaths than the second-leading cause in both countries. The age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR) of deaths due to COVID-19 in January 2021 was 545.9 deaths per 100,000 people in England and 539.1 deaths per 100,000 people in Wales. In Wales, the highest ASMR due to COVID-19 was experienced in January 2021, 8.9% higher than in April 2020 (a rate of 539.1 deaths per 100,000 people in January 2021, compared with 495.1 deaths per 100,000 people in April 2020). London was the English region with the highest mortality rate for deaths due to COVID-19 in January 2021 (900.6 deaths per 100,000 people), followed by the East of England (700.2 deaths per 100,000 people); the South West had the lowest COVID-19 mortality rate, at 295.6 deaths per 100,000 people. In England, the mortality rate for deaths due to COVID-19 in January 2021 in the most deprived areas was 710.4 deaths per 100,000 people; this was 1.8 times the mortality rate in the least deprived areas (400.1 deaths per 100,000 people). In Wales, the COVID-19 mortality rate in the most deprived areas was 1.5 times the mortality rate in the least deprived areas (680.3 deaths per 100,000 people in the most deprived areas, 444.7 deaths per 100,000 people in the least deprived areas). Dementia and Alzheimer's disease was the most common pre-existing condition among COVID-19 deaths in England and Wales in 2020 , identified in 25.3% of deaths due to COVID-19. This month's bulletin includes an interactive map of deaths due to COVID-19 in each Middle layer Super Output Area (see Section 3) and analysis of pre-existing conditions of people who died due to COVID-19 ( see Section 7 ). The accompanying datasets also include mortality rates for deaths due to COVID-19 by local area and deprivation, and deaths involving COVID-19 for the UK. 2 . Death registrations and the overall mortality rate for January 2021 Based on provisional data, there were 68,796 deaths registered in England in January 2021. This was 15,747 more deaths than in January 2020 and 15,685 deaths more than the five-year average (2015 to 2019). The five- year average has been provided for 2015 to 2019 (rather than 2016 to 2020) because of the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on deaths registered in 2020. The average for 2015 to 2019 provides a comparison of the number of deaths expected per month in a usual (non-pandemic) year. Of the deaths registered in January 2021, 34,903 were males and 33,893 were females. In Wales, the provisional number of deaths registered in January 2021 was 4,431. This was 878 more deaths than in January 2020 and 904 more deaths than the five-year average for January. Of the deaths registered in January in Wales, there were 2,254 male deaths and 2,177 female deaths. Page 3 of 26 Age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) are used for comparisons over time rather than numbers of deaths, as ASMRs account for changes to the population size and age structure. In England, January 2002 was the year with the highest mortality rate since our data time series began in 2001. Since then, mortality rates in England for the month of January had been generally decreasing from 1,581.7 deaths per 100,000 people in 2002, to a low of 1,034.2 deaths per 100,000 people in January 2016. The statistically significant decrease in age-standardised mortality rates from 2002 was seen in both males and females (Figure 1). But since 2019, the mortality rate has increased each year. In England, the January 2021 mortality rate (1,462.0 deaths per 100,000 people) was significantly higher than the mortality rate in every year back to January 2003 (but significantly lower than January 2002 and January 2001, the highest mortality rates in this analysis). The mortality rate in January 2021 was 1,729.9 deaths per 100,000 males (compared with 1,908.9 in January 2002) and 1,245.5 deaths per 100,000 females (compared with 1,357.0 in January 2002). In Wales, 2001 was the year with the highest January mortality rate since our data time series began in 2001. Over time, mortality rates in Wales have decreased from 1,626.5 deaths per 100,000 people in January 2001 to a low of 1,114.0 deaths per 100,000 people in January 2016. In January 2021, the mortality rate significantly increased (compared with January 2020) to 1,537.2 deaths per 100,000 people; with both males and females experiencing an increase in deaths. The January 2021 mortality rate was significantly higher than the mortality rate in every year back to January 2009. Page 4 of 26 Figure 1: Mortality rates for the month of January 2021 were the highest since 2002 in England and 2001 in Wales Age-standardised mortality rates by sex, England and Wales, deaths registered in January 2001 to January 2021 Source: Office for National Statistics – Monthly mortality analysis Notes: 1. Age-standardised mortality rates per 100,000 people, standardised to the 2013 European Standard Population. Monthly rates in this bulletin are adjusted to allow for comparisons with annual rates. For more information, see Section 10: Measuring the data. 2. Figures are for deaths registered rather than deaths occurring in each period. 3. Figures for 2020 and 2021 are based on provisional mortality data and projected populations. 4. Figures exclude non-residents. 5. The five-year average has been provided for 2015 to 2019 (rather than 2016 to 2020) because of the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on deaths registered in 2020. The average for 2015 to 2019 provides a comparison of the number of deaths expected per month in a usual (non-pandemic) year. 3 . Deaths due to COVID-19 registered in January 2021 The doctor certifying a death can list all causes in the chain of events that led to the death and pre-existing conditions that may have contributed to the death. Using this information, we determine an underlying cause of death. More information on this process can be found in our user guide. Page 5 of 26 In January in most cases (89.8% in England and 89.9% in Wales) where the coronavirus (COVID-19) was mentioned on the death certificate, it was found to be the underlying cause of death. For more information on our definition of COVID-19 deaths, see Section 10: Measuring the data. In this bulletin, we use the term "due to COVID-19" when referring only to deaths with an underlying cause of death of COVID-19 and we use the term "involving COVID-19" when referring to deaths that had COVID-19 mentioned anywhere on the death certificate, whether as an underlying cause or not. Of the 68,796 deaths registered in January 2021 in England, 37.4% (25,716 deaths) were due to COVID-19. This is the highest proportion seen in England since the pandemic began, overtaking April 2020 when 33.5% of all deaths were due to COVID-19. Taking into account all deaths involving COVID-19 increases the percentage to 41.6% of all deaths (28,650 deaths) in England in January 2021. In Wales, 35.2% of the 4,431 deaths registered in January 2021 were due to COVID-19 (1,561 deaths), the highest proportion seen in Wales since the pandemic began, overtaking April 2020 when 30.1% of all deaths were due to COVID-19.
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