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Argus Base Oils Argus Base Oils Base oil market prices and analysis Issue 12 - 35 Prices effective: Friday 31 August 2012 Prices at a glance Asia-Pacifi c $/t Europe $/t Group 1 Low High +/- Group 1 Low High +/- SN 150 ex-tank Singapore 1,145.00 1,180.00 +2.50 SN 150 fob domestic NWE 1,125.00 1,165.00 +10.00 SN 500 ex-tank Singapore 1,225.00 1,260.00 +2.50 SN 500 fob domestic NWE 1,145.00 1,175.00 +5.00 Bright stock ex-tank Singapore 1,310.00 1,340.00 +2.50 Bright stock fob domestic NWE 1,280.00 1,320.00 +10.00 SN 150 fob Asia 995.00 1,045.00 +5.00 SN 150 fob European export 990.00 1,020.00 +5.00 SN 500 fob Asia 1,070.00 1,105.00 +7.50 SN 500 fob European export 1,010.00 1,040.00 +5.00 Bright stock fob Asia 1,170.00 1,210.00 +5.00 Bright stock fob European export 1,025.00 1,065.00 +20.00 Group 2 Group 3 N150 ex-tank Singapore 1,140.00 1,180.00 +2.50 4cst fca NWE 1,501.00 1,526.00 -9.00 N500 ex-tank Singapore 1,200.00 1,235.00 +2.50 6cst fca NWE 1,526.00 1,545.00 -9.00 N150 fob Asia 1,010.00 1,040.00 +5.00 8cst fca NWE 1,507.00 1,532.00 -9.00 N500 fob Asia 1,070.00 1,105.00 +10.00 Russia and FSU $/t Northeast Asia $/t Group 1 Low High +/- Group 1 Low High +/- SN 150 fob Baltic Sea 990.00 1,020.00 +30.00 SN 150 cfr 1,025.00 1,070.00 +2.50 SN 500 fob Baltic Sea 1,000.00 1,030.00 +30.00 SN 500 cfr 1,100.00 1,140.00 +10.00 SN 150 fob Black Sea 980.00 1,010.00 +25.00 Bright stock cfr 1,200.00 1,240.00 +2.50 SN 500 fob Black Sea 950.00 980.00 +10.00 Group 2 US $/t N150 cfr 1,025.00 1,070.00 +7.50 Group 1 Low High +/- N500 cfr 1,095.00 1,140.00 +12.50 SN 150 fob 994.00 1,042.00 +21.00 India and UAE $/t SN 500 fob 1,094.00 1,138.00 +22.00 Group 1 Low High +/- Bright stock fob 1,123.00 1,176.00 +23.50 SN 150 cfr India 1,045.00 1,085.00 +5.00 Group 2 SN 500 cfr India 1,080.00 1,120.00 +15.00 N100 fob 1,101.00 1,141.00 +11.50 Bright stock cfr India 1,160.00 1,200.00 +5.00 N200 fob 1,113.00 1,153.00 +10.50 SN 150 (LVI) cfr India 1,015.00 1,055.00 +5.00 N220 fob 1,113.00 1,153.00 +10.50 SN 500 (LVI) cfr India 1,045.00 1,085.00 +15.00 N600 fob 1,335.00 1,359.00 +0.00 SN 150 cfr UAE 1,040.00 1,070.00 +5.00 Group 3 (domestic) SN 500 cfr UAE 1,060.00 1,090.00 +5.00 4cst 1,584.00 1,591.00 +0.00 6cst 1,622.00 1,654.00 +0.00 Overview 8cst 1,622.00 1,654.00 +0.00 Global base oil prices have firmed. US prices got support amid concerns about disruptions caused by a major storm US naphthenic base oils $/t hitting the US Gulf coast. European prices rose amid reviving Low High +/- buying interest and ahead of several plant shutdowns. Pale oil 60 fob 1,031.00 1,108.00 +0.00 Asia-Pacific and Chinese base oil prices rose. Continuing Pale oil 100 fob 1,011.00 1,070.00 +0.00 plant shutdowns in Japan have cut supplies, while regional Pale oil 500 fob 1,031.00 1,066.00 +0.00 demand is firming, especially for heavy-grade base oils. Pale oil 2000 fob 1,070.00 1,087.00 +0.00 Crude oil and gasoil futures European SN 500 premium to Ice gasoil $/t +/- 500 Ice Brent front month ($/bl) 112.65 -2.36 Ice gasoil front month = 0 Ice gasoil front month ($/t) 984.25 -11.25 400 Contents Global trade flows, freight rates, fundamentals.......................................2 300 Asia-Pacific........................................................................................3 Northeast Asia.........................................................................................4 200 India........................................................................................................5 Mideast Gulf.............................................................................................6 Europe................................................................................................7 100 Russia and FSU.......................................................................................8 US..........................................................................................9-12 0 News and analysis............................................................................13-16 Sep 11 Dec 11 Mar 12 Jun 12 Aug 12 Methodology........................................................................................17 Page 1 of 17 Copyright © 2012 Argus Media Ltd Argus Base Oils Issue 12 - 35 Prices effective: Friday 31 August 2012 Argus market map — SN 150 & SN 500 $/t Fob NWE Fob Baltic Sea SN 150 1,005.00 SN 150 1,005.00 SN 500 1,025.00 SN 500 1,015.00 Fob Black Sea SN 150 995.00 SN 500 965.00 Cfr NE Asia SN 150 1,047.50 Fob USGC SN 500 1,120.00 SN 150 1,018.00 SN 500 1,116.00 Cfr UAE SN 150 1,055.00 SN 500 1,075.00 Fob Asia SN 150 1,020.00 Cfr India (LVI) SN 500 1,087.50 SN 150 1,035.00 SN 500 1,065.00 Freight rates (US) $/t Arbitrage opportunities $/t Route 1,000t 3,000t 5,000t 10,000t Second centre less SN 150 SN 500 US Gulf coast-Rotterdam 75.00 59.00 45.00 40.00 first centre. This week Prior week This week Prior week US Gulf coast-Brazil 95.00 85.00 77.00 68.00 NWE-Asia +15.00 +15.00 +62.50 +60.00 US Gulf coast-Far East 105.00 75.00 59.00 55.00 Baltic Sea-Asia +15.00 +40.00 +72.50 +95.00 US Gulf coast-India 135.00 120.00 100.00 90.00 Asia-UAE +35.00 +35.00 -12.50 -10.00 − Rates for July 2012, provided by SPI Marine (www.spimarineusa.com) NWE-UAE +50.00 +50.00 +50.00 +50.00 Freight rates (Asia-Pacific) $/t Asia-USGC -2.00 -18.00 +28.50 +14.00 NWE-USGC +13.00 -3.00 +91.00 +74.00 Route 3,000t 5,000t Route 3,000t 5,000t Black Sea-India (LVI) +40.00 +60.00 +100.00 +107.50 Singapore-central China 54.00 49.00 S.Korea-US Gulf coast 95.00 85.00 Asia-India (LVI) +15.00 +15.00 -22.50 -17.50 Singapore-Indonesia 32.50 29.50 S.Korea-WC India 71.00 62.50 Baltic Sea-USGC +13.00 +22.00 +101.00 +109.00 Singapore-Thailand 33.50 30.50 S.Korea-Singapore 34.50 30.50 Baltic Sea-NWE +0.00 +25.00 +10.00 +35.00 Singapore-WC India 48.50 44.00 S.Korea-Japan 24.00 21.50 Singapore-Japan 62.00 57.00 S.Korea-central China 26.00 22.00 The increasingly large disconnection between base oil prices and Japan-central China 32.00 27.00 S.Korea-Taiwan 27.00 22.50 competing fuels since June has reflected the market’s oversupply and Mideast Gulf-WC India 40.00 31.00 S.Korea-Europe 146.00 126.00 weak demand. But the separation also leaves the market exposed to Mideast Gulf-central China 69.00 63.00 a sudden change in the supply-demand dynamic. Some changes are − Rates based on one port loading/one port discharge planned, such as a producer’s plan to cut run rates at its Taiwanese − Rates provided at market close on 30 August by SPI Marine (www.spimarineasia.com) base oils plant after it resumes operations next month following Feedstock fundamentals maintenance. Global base oil prices have stayed weak relative to competing Other changes are unexpected, such as the shutdown of several and feedstock fuels. The slump in base oil margins, combined base oil units in Japan in July and August, along with a cut in with strong diesel premiums to crude, have maintained a strong operating rates at Chevron’s Richmond base oils plant in the US after incentive for refiners to boost production of the motor fuel. a fire at the refinery in early August. A major storm struck the US European SN 150 base oils’ premium to Ice gasoil fell below Gulf coast on 28 August, affecting more than 1.7mn b/d of refining $185/t, its lowest level since early March. The premium of SN 150 capacity. The storm was almost exactly seven years after Hurricane export prices fell below $45/t, close to its lowest in more than 30 Katrina struck the region, causing widespread destruction. This year’s months. Base oils’ premium to vacuum gasoil (VGO) fell to close to US hurricane season is now entering its most active period. $300/t, down from more than $600/t just two months ago. A huge blast on 25 August at PdV’s 640,000 b/d Amuay refinery in US domestic SN 150 base oil price premiums to heating oil held at Venezuela claimed the lives of 48 people. The facility was scheduled around $0.65/USG. But margins remain weak, holding below $0.80/ to restart by the end of this week. PdV’s lubricants complex in its USG for a sixth straight week.
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