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Argus Base Oils Base Oil Market Prices, News and Analysis Argus Base Oils Base oil market prices, news and analysis Issue 20-6 | Friday 7 February 2020 PRICES AT A GLANCE Asia-Pacific $/t Europe €/t $/t Low Mid High ± Low Mid High ± Low Mid High ± Group I Group I SN 150 ex-tank Singapore 610 630.00 650 nc SN 150 fob domestic NWE 660 682.50 705 +5.00 SN 500 ex-tank Singapore 625 645.00 665 nc SN 500 fob domestic NWE 685 705.00 725 +5.00 Bright stock ex-tank Singapore 780 800.00 820 nc Bright stock fob domestic NWE 735 755.00 775 nc SN 150 fob Asia 530 550.00 570 nc SN 150 fob European export 580 600.00 620 +15.00 SN 500 fob Asia 545 565.00 585 +5.00 SN 500 fob European export 600 620.00 640 +10.00 Bright stock fob Asia 660 680.00 700 nc Bright stock fob European export 640 660.00 680 nc Group II Group II N150 ex-tank Singapore 635 655.00 675 nc N100 fca ARA 700 717.50 735 nc 769 788.00 807 -3.50 N500 ex-tank Singapore 695 715.00 735 nc N150 fca ARA 695 712.50 730 nc 763 782.50 802 -3.50 N150 fob Asia 590 610.00 630 nc N220 fca ARA 715 735.00 755 nc 785 807.0 0 829 -4.00 N500 fob Asia 605 625.00 645 nc N600 fca ARA 735 757.50 780 nc 807 832.00 857 -3.50 Northeast Asia $/t Group III Low Mid High ± 4cst fca NWE 705 765.00 825 +5.00 774 840.00 906 +2.00 6cst fca NWE 750 807.50 865 +5.00 824 887.0 0 950 +1.50 Group I 8cst fca NWE 715 775.00 835 +5.00 785 851.00 917 +1.50 SN 150 cfr 580 600.00 620 nc Group III (a) SN 500 cfr 595 615.00 635 nc Bright stock cfr 720 740.00 760 nc 4cst fca NWE 770 805.00 840 nc 846 884.50 923 -3.50 Group II 6cst fca NWE 810 845.00 880 nc 890 928.50 967 -3.50 N150 cfr 610 630.00 650 nc 8cst fca NWE 785 820.00 855 nc 862 900.50 939 -4.00 N500 cfr 625 645.00 665 nc * Group III (a) refers to base oils which have Volkswagen Oil Quality Standard VW India and UAE $/t 504 00/507 00 certification Group III (b) Low Mid High ± 4cst fca NWE 690 715.00 740 +5.00 758 785.50 813 +2.00 Group I 6cst fca NWE 705 730.00 755 +5.00 774 801.50 829 +2.00 SN 150 (LVI) cfr India 570 590.00 610 +10.00 8cst fca NWE 700 725.00 750 +5.00 769 796.50 824 +2.00 SN 500 (LVI) cfr India 575 595.00 615 +10.00 * Group III (b) refers to base oils which do not have Volkswagen Oil Quality Stan- Bright stock cfr India 685 705.00 725 +5.00 dard VW 504 00/507 00 certification SN 150 (LVI) cfr UAE 560 580.00 600 +5.00 SN 500 (LVI) cfr UAE 545 565.00 585 +5.00 Group II US $/t N70 cfr India 650 670.00 690 nc N150 cfr India 630 650.00 670 nc Low Mid High ± N500 cfr India 640 660.00 680 nc Group I Group III SN 150 fob 597 621.00 645 +6.00 4cst ex-tank UAE 690 710.00 730 nc SN 500 fob 617 641.00 665 +6.00 Russia and FSU $/t Bright stock fob 817 840.50 864 +8.00 Low Mid High ± Group II N100 fob 611 635.50 660 +9.50 Group I N220 fob 601 625.50 650 +9.00 SN 150 fob Baltic Sea 485 502.50 520 nc N600 fob 606 630.00 654 +9.00 SN 500 fob Baltic Sea 490 510.00 530 nc Group III (domestic) SN 150 fob Black Sea 445 465.00 485 nc 4cst 832 857.0 0 882 nc SN 500 fob Black Sea 465 485.00 505 nc 6cst 838 863.00 888 nc OVERVIEW 8cst 838 863.00 888 nc Naphthenic base oils Global base oil prices are steady to firm. Tighter-than-usual Pale oil 60 fob 661 684.50 708 nc supply supports European and US prices. Asia-Pacific prices Pale oil 100 fob 665 690.00 715 nc Pale oil 500 fob 644 667.0 0 690 nc are steady as moves by Chinese producers to slash produc- Pale oil 2000 fob 642 665.00 688 nc tion rates counter low Chinese lube demand. Sustained demand for very-light grade base oils supports Indian prices. Copyright © 2020 Argus Media group Available on the Argus Publications App Licensed to: Shi Jia Lim, Argus Media Limited (London) Argus Base Oils Issue 20-6 | Friday 7 February 2020 Argus MARKet MAP fob Baltic Sea fob European export SN 150 502.50 SN 150 600.00 SN 500 510.00 SN 500 620.00 cfr NE Asia N150 fca ARA 782.50 SN 150 600.00 N600 fca ARA 832.00 fob Black Sea SN 500 615.00 SN 150 465.00 N150 630.00 SN 500 485.00 N500 645.00 cfr UAE (LVI) SN 150 580.00 SN 500 565.00 fob US export cfr India fob Asia SN 150 621.00 SN 150 (LVI) 590.00 SN 150 550.00 SN 500 641.00 SN 500 (LVI) 595.00 SN 500 565.00 N100 635.50 N150 650.00 N150 610.00 N600 630.00 N500 660.00 N500 625.00 Freight rates (US) * $/t Arbitrage opportunities - Group I * $/t Route 1,000t 3,000t 5,000t 10,000t SN 150 SN 500 Destination minus Origin US Gulf coast-Rotterdam 100-110 68-75 60-62 50-58 This Prior This Prior Origin | Destination week week week week US Gulf coast-Brazil 105-110 90 85 75-80 US Gulf coast-Far East 125-130 90-95 85 76-80 Fob Europe export - ex-tank Singapore +30.00 +45.00 +25.00 +35.00 US Gulf coast-India 130-135 100 90 80 Fob Baltic - ex-tank Singapore +127.50 +127.50 +135.00 +135.00 * rates for January 2020, provided by SPI Marine (www.spimarineusa.com) Fob Europe export - cfr UAE (LVI) -20.00 -10.00 -55.00 -50.00 Fob Asia - domestic US +135.00 +125.50 +144.00 +143.00 Freight rates (Asia-Pacific) * $/t Fob Europe export - domestic US +85.00 +90.50 +89.00 +93.00 Route 3,000t 5,000t Fob Black Sea - cfr India (LVI) +125.00 +115.00 +110.00 +100.00 Singapore-WC India 52.50 49.50 Fob Asia - cfr India (LVI) +40.00 +30.00 +30.00 +25.00 Singapore-Indonesia 29.50 26.00 Fob Baltic - domestic US +182.50 +173.00 +199.00 +193.00 Singapore-Thailand 31.00 27.50 Fob Baltic - domestic NWE +180.00 +175.00 +195.00 +190.00 Singapore-central China 44.50 39.50 Fob US export - ex-tank Singapore +9.00 +15.00 +4.00 +10.00 Singapore-Japan 57.0 0 52.00 S.Korea-WC India 63.00 56.00 Arbitrage opportunities - Group II * $/t S.Korea-Singapore 40.00 34.00 N100/N150 N500/N600 S.Korea-Japan 28.00 22.00 Destination minus Origin This Prior This Prior S.Korea-central China 29.00 24.00 Origin | Destination week week week week S.Korea-Taiwan 31.00 26.00 Japan-central China 47.0 0 38.00 Fob Asia - fca ARA +172.50 +176.00 +207.0 0 +210.50 S.Korea-US Gulf coast 93.00 74.00 Fob Asia - domestic US +78.00 +72.00 +77.0 0 +65.00 S.Korea-Europe 122.00 99.00 Fob Asia - cfr India +40.00 +40.00 +35.00 +35.00 Mideast Gulf-WC India 44.00 39.00 Fob US export - FCA ARA +147.0 0 +160.00 +202.00 +214.50 Mideast Gulf-central China 64.00 59.00 Fob US export - cfr India +14.50 +24.00 +30.00 +39.00 * rates based on one port loading/one port discharge Fob US export - ex-tank Singapore +19.50 +29.00 +85.00 +94.00 * rates provided at market close on 30 January by SPI Marine *The price-spread reflects the difference between the fob export (Origin) price (www.spimarineasia.com) and the domestic/cfr (Destination) price . Copyright © 2020 Argus Media group Page 2 of 30 Licensed to: Shi Jia Lim, Argus Media Limited (London) Issue Ref: 421631 Argus Base Oils Issue 20-6 | Friday 7 February 2020 FEEDSTOCK FUNDAMENTALS Global base oil prices have climbed, compared to feedstock These measures have included run-cuts, more wide- and competing fuel prices that remained close to their low- spread arbitrage shipments, and diversion of base oils into est levels since end-2018. other fuels markets. The domestic European SN 150 base oil price premiums Lower feedstock prices have bolstered base oil values, to 30-day average Ice gasoil futures have dropped to $119/t, compared to crude and diesel, to their highest levels in from $143/t a year earlier. The SN 500 premium has fallen more than a year in some markets. The recovery has pro- to $141/t, from $156/t a year earlier. The SN 150 premium to vided welcome respite for producers struggling for most of four-week average vacuum gasoil (VGO) prices has risen to the past two years with unusually tight margins.
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