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CLIMATE CHANGE in ILLINOIS © Charles Larry an Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Illinois

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CLIMATE CHANGE in ILLINOIS © Charles Larry an Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Illinois AN ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN ILLINOIS © Charles Larry An Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Illinois AN ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN ILLINOIS The development of this report was co-led by Donald Wuebbles1, James Angel2, Karen Petersen3, and Maria Lemke3 Contributing authors (listed alphabetically): Daniel Abrams2 Atul Jain1 Jennifer Quebedeaux1 Jessicca Allen4 Walt Kelly2 Charles Roswell2 Andrew Ballinger5 Madhu Khanna1 Shubhayu Saha11,12 Jonathan Coppess1 Praveen Kumar1 Swarnali Sanyal1 Sergiusz Czesny2 Kenneth Kunkel4,9 Nicholas Seiter1 Qihong Dai1 Andrew Leakey1 Ashish Sharma2 Sam Dorevitch6 Tzu-Shun Lin1 Teresa Steckler7 James Ellis1 Momcilo Markus2 Chris Stone2 Trent Ford2 Jeff Matthews1 Cory Suski1 Benjamin Gramig1 Sally McConkey2 John Taft2 Elena Grossman6 Gregory McIsaac (retired)1 Elizabeth Wahle7 Aaron Hager1 Jim Miller1 Mike Ward1 Chelsea Harbach7 William Miller10 Zhenxing Zhang2 Louis Iverson8 Aaron Packman10 Author Affiliations: (1) University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign (UIUC); (2) Prairie Research Institute, UIUC; (3) The Nature Conservancy; (4) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites – North Carolina; (5) The University of Edinburgh; (6) University of Illinois at Chicago School of Public Health; (7) UIUC Extension; (8) U.S. Forest Service; (9) North Carolina State University; (10) Northwestern University; (11) Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; and (12) Emory University. Suggested Citation: Wuebbles, D., J. Angel, K. Petersen, and A.M. Lemke (Eds.), 2021: An Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Illinois. The Nature Conservancy, Illinois, https://doi.org/10.13012/ B2IDB-1260194_V1. Cover photography: © Timothy T. Lindenbaum Copyright © 2021 The Nature Conservancy in Illinois iii An Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Illinois Contents Foreword ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 1 Executive Summary........................................................................................................................................................................ 2 Chapter 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................. 8 Importance of understanding the impacts of climate change in Illinois ........................................................................... 9 An introduction to the science of climate change and the Illinois climate assessment ............................................. 10 Chapter 2. Observed and Projected Changes in Climate ...................................................................................................15 Introduction .....................................................................................................................................................................................16 Historical air temperature changes and trends ......................................................................................................................16 Historical precipitation changes and trends...........................................................................................................................20 Projected temperature changes.................................................................................................................................................25 Precipitation projections..............................................................................................................................................................27 Projections of extreme events .....................................................................................................................................................31 Projections of variables important to agriculture ..................................................................................................................52 Knowledge and research gaps ...................................................................................................................................................56 Chapter 3. Climate Change Impacts on Hydrology and Water Resources ..................................................................59 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................................... 60 Flooding .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 60 Water quality ..................................................................................................................................................................................69 Lake Michigan ................................................................................................................................................................................73 Water supply ..................................................................................................................................................................................74 Knowledge and research gaps ...................................................................................................................................................78 Chapter 4. Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture ..........................................................................................................82 Introduction ....................................................................................................................................................................................83 Corn and soybeans ...................................................................................................................................................................... 84 Days suitable for fieldwork ........................................................................................................................................................ 90 Weeds, pests, and diseases ........................................................................................................................................................92 Livestock ..........................................................................................................................................................................................94 Specialty crops ...............................................................................................................................................................................95 Agricultural economy and policy ..............................................................................................................................................99 Strategies for sustainable farming in a changing climate .................................................................................................102 Knowledge and research gaps .................................................................................................................................................104 iv An Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Illinois Chapter 5. Climate Change Impacts on Public Health .....................................................................................................107 Introduction ..................................................................................................................................................................................108 Community vulnerability to disasters ....................................................................................................................................109 Heat and health ............................................................................................................................................................................110 Flooding and health .....................................................................................................................................................................114 Respiratory health ........................................................................................................................................................................116 Vector-borne diseases ................................................................................................................................................................119 Mental health ............................................................................................................................................................................... 122 Economic impact of the health impacts from climate change ........................................................................................ 124 Recommendations for climate and health adaptation measures ................................................................................... 126 Knowledge and research gaps .................................................................................................................................................128 Chapter 6. Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystems .........................................................................................................131
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