The Effects of the Norm of International Election Monitoring on Voters' Confidence Levels in Francophone West Africa's Presidential Elections 1990-2011" (2013)
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The College of Wooster Libraries Open Works Senior Independent Study Theses 2013 The ffecE ts of the Norm of International Election Monitoring on Voters' Confidence Levels in Francophone West Africa's Presidential Elections 1990-2011 Lauren E. Gilliss The College of Wooster, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://openworks.wooster.edu/independentstudy Part of the Comparative Politics Commons, and the International and Intercultural Communication Commons Recommended Citation Gilliss, Lauren E., "The Effects of the Norm of International Election Monitoring on Voters' Confidence Levels in Francophone West Africa's Presidential Elections 1990-2011" (2013). Senior Independent Study Theses. Paper 254. https://openworks.wooster.edu/independentstudy/254 This Senior Independent Study Thesis Exemplar is brought to you by Open Works, a service of The oC llege of Wooster Libraries. It has been accepted for inclusion in Senior Independent Study Theses by an authorized administrator of Open Works. For more information, please contact [email protected]. © Copyright 2013 Lauren E. Gilliss THE EFFECTS OF THE NORM OF INTERNATIONAL ELECTION MONITORING ON VOTERS’ CONFIDENCE LEVELS IN FRANCOPHONE WEST AFRICA’S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS 1990-2011 By Lauren E. Gilliss An Independent Study Thesis submitted to the Department of Political Science at the College of Wooster March, 2013 in partial fulfillment of the requirements of I.S. Thesis Advisor: Dr. Boubacar N’Diaye Second Reader: Dr. Matthew Krain Acknowledgements I would first like to thank my advisor, Professor Boubacar N’Diaye, for his guidance and patience throughout the process of writing this Independent Study. His reassurance and encouragement motivated me to produce the best work possible. His assistance in finding sources was also very much appreciated. I would next like to thank my family for their love and support. I am thankful that my parents introduced me to Wooster and I was able to discover the many opportunities this college could offer me. The choice to attend Wooster led me to make another of the most meaningful decisions in my life so far—to spend a semester studying abroad in Senegal. My experiences in Senegal helped me to discover my interest in elections and were the motivation behind this study. Many thanks also to the International Relations and Political Science professors who have helped steer me along my academic path at Wooster. Professors Kille, Krain, Lantis, and Warner have been influential through their teaching and guidance both in and out of the classroom. Last, I would like to thank my friends for being a constant source of encouragement and good spirits throughout this process. ii Abstract International election monitoring is a phenomenon that began to spread rapidly in the 1990s and has since become an essential element of elections in the developing world. This study assesses the relationship between the presence of international election monitors during presidential elections and levels of voters’ confidence in the electoral process. Several questions guide the study: How did the norm of international election monitoring develop and how widely do governments adhere to this norm? Are citizens more confident in the efficacy and transparency of presidential elections when international monitors are present? I hypothesize that when governments adhere to the norm of international election monitoring by inviting international observers, citizens will have higher levels of confidence in the electoral process. I conduct a comparative case study examining the presidential elections in Benin, Mali, and Guinea between 1990 and 2011. Using election monitors’ reports, literature surrounding each of the elections, and public opinion survey data reflecting citizens’ perceptions of the elections and democracy in their countries, I test the relationship between the two variables in my model. The findings suggest that a positive correlation between the variables is likely. However, because no data currently exists that directly measures the impacts of international election monitors, the study ultimately concludes that further research must be done to confirm the positive relationship between international monitors’ presence and voters’ confidence levels. iii Table of Contents Chapter One: Introduction…………..…………………………………………………………….1 Organizational Preview……………………………………………………………………4 Chapter Two: Theory and Literature Review…………………………………………………......6 Theoretical Foundations……………………………………………………………….......6 The Development of the Norm of International Election Monitoring…………………...11 The Role of Elections in Democracy…………………………………………………….19 Election Monitors and Voter Confidence ……………………………………………….24 Conclusion……………………………………………………………………………….36 Chapter Three: Research Design and Methodology…………………………………………......37 Hypothesis and Expected Outcomes…………………………………………………......37 Independent Variable……………………………………………………………….........38 Dependent Variable………………………………………………………………...........39 Methodological Approach……………………………………………………………….39 Summary…………………………………………………………………………………43 Chapter Four: International Election Monitors in Benin’s Presidential Elections………………44 Introduction………………………………………………………………………………44 Historical Background…………………………………………………………………...45 Independent Variable………………………………………………………………….....46 Elections in Benin………………………………………………………………………..47 Dependent Variable……………………………………………………………………...56 Conclusions………………………………………………………………………………63 Chapter Five: International Election Monitors in Mali’s Presidential Elections………………...65 Historical Background…………………………………………………………………...65 Independent Variable………………………………………………………………….....67 Elections in Mali…………………………………………………………………………68 Dependent Variable……………………………………………………………………...75 Conclusions………………………………………………………………………………83 Chapter Six: International Election Monitors in Guinea’s Presidential Elections…………….....86 Historical Background…………………………………………………………………...86 Independent Variable………………………………………………………………….....89 Elections in Guinea………………………………………………………………………90 Dependent Variable…………………………………………………………………….100 Conclusions……………………………………………………………………………..102 Chapter Seven: Analysis and Conclusions……………………………………………………..105 Analysis………………………………………………………………………………....106 Conclusions…………………………………………………………………………......116 Bibliography……………………………………………………………………………………121 iv Tables and Figure Table 2.1: Checklist for Election Assessment…………………………………………………...26 Figure 3.1: Hypothesized Model………………………………………………………………...38 Table 4.1: Voter Turnout………………………………………………………………………...57 Table 4.2: Type of Government…………………………………………………………………58 Table 4.3: State of Democracy…………………………………………………………………..59 Table 4.4: Satisfaction with Democracy………………………………………………………...59 Table 4.5: Selecting Leaders…………………………………………………………………….60 Table 4.6: Institutional Trust…………………………………………………………………….60 Table 4.7: Freeness and Fairness………………………………………………………………...61 Table 4.8: Democracy in Benin………………………………………………………………….63 Table 5.1: Voter Turnout………………………………………………………………………...77 Table 5.2: Type of Government…………………………………………………………………77 Table 5.3: State of Democracy…………………………………………………………………..79 Table 5.4: Satisfaction with Democracy………………………………………………………...80 Table 5.5: Selecting Leaders…………………………………………………………………….81 Table 5.6: Institutional Trust…………………………………………………………………….82 Table 5.7: Freeness and Fairness………………………………………………………………...83 v 1 CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION When the electorate believes that elections have been free and fair, they can be a powerful catalyst for better governance, greater security and human development. But in the absence of credible elections, citizens have no recourse to peaceful political change. The risk of conflict increases while corruption, intimidation, and fraud go unchecked, rotting the entire political system slowly from within. (Annan 2012) Free and fair elections are one of the main determinants of the level of democracy in a country. While not the only significant criterion for a successful democracy, the international community generally accepts that free, fair, and competitive elections provide the political environment appropriate for the institutionalization of democracy in a state. However, the mere existence of an electoral process does not convey its impact on those whom it affects most, a state’s populace. As Kofi Annan (2012) states, voters’ perceptions of political and electoral efficacy are integral to the democratization process and the stability of established democracies. The study of democratization is not new to the field of international relations, however there are aspects of it, such as the promotion of democracy through election monitoring, that have just recently begun to emerge as important areas for close study (Bjornlund 2004). Since the 1980s, election monitoring has become increasingly more widespread. Today, it is accepted that while established democracies do not need to invite election monitors in order to hold elections the international community views as legitimate, countries in the process of democratizing are expected to do so. “Given that countries have traditionally guarded elections as a strictly domestic affair and a sacred hallmark of sovereignty, the rapid expansion of monitoring is stunning” (Kelley 2012b, 3). The acceptance of election monitoring shows the changing norms of the international system from sovereignty and noninterference to participatory rights, freedom of expression, and self-determination. 2 The international norm of election observation took hold