Views on Washington Policy from Tom Block
CouldC Higher Tariffs Play Into Trump’s Hand?
MuchMu to the surprise of many investors, President Donald Trump followed through on hishi threat to increase the 10% tariff on $200 billion of Chinese imports to a 25% tariff. So much for the art of the deal.
TheTh President is sending mixed signals as he talks about possibility of agreement but he alsoal talks about a new program to buy agricultural products from American farmers to distributedi as food aid around the world. That would require appropriating funds and L. Thomas Block anotheran issue is that American farmers have always preferred the greater reliability of Washington and Policy Strategist Formerly Global Head of Government tradetr to aid. In the 2018 election Republican support faded in farm country, and a long Relations at J.P. Morgan for 21 years, termte escalation in the trade war could have negative political repercussions for Trump and previously served as Legislative Assistant and Chief of Staff in the in 2020. House, and Legislative Staff Director in the Senate However,Ho no candidate better knows how to communicate with his base than the @TomBlock_FS president.pr The "tough on China trade" stand steals a page from the Democratic playbook.pl Trade, like infrastructure and prescription drug pricing, is an issue where Trump'sTr ideology is more in line with Democrats than free-trade Republicans. DemocratsDe will have a tough time attacking Trump on trade policy, giving him plenty of maneuvering room.
Democrats are so focused on Trump, that House legislation to strengthen the Affordable Care Act has received little attention. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is beginning to soften her opposition to impeachment as the Administration defies nearly every Congressional inquiry for information on the Mueller Report. While some have cried “constitutional crisis,” it’s better described as a constitutional confrontation.
As a young Congressional aide during Richard Nixon’s presidency I well remember the tension over whether he would hand over the Watergate tapes. The demand for the tapes went to the Supreme Court, and Nixon complied. It appears that the missing information from the Mueller Report may go through the judicial system up to the Supreme Court, where even with the Republican majority the outcome is far from clear. If the Democrats keep on the single note of Mueller they will be losing their ability to deliver on health care, infrastructure and the environment which are the issues they won on in 2018.
L. Thomas Block, Washington and Policy Strategist
FSINSIGHT | www.fsinsight.com 5/11/2019 | Page 1 Figure: Top Trump Tweets
Donald J. Trump The 45th President of United States of America
@realDonaldTrump
Economic Calendar
From 04/29/19 – 05/03/2019
NEXT WEEK'S MAJOR U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS & FED SPEAKERS TIME (ET) REPORT PERIOD ACTUAL FORECAST PREVIOUS MONDAY, MAY 13 11 AM SURVEY OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS APRIL TUESDAY, MAY 14 6 AM NFIB SMALL-BUSINESS INDEX APRIL -- 101.8 8:30 AM IMPORT PRICE INDEX APRIL -- 0.6% WEDNESDAY, MAY 15 8:30 AM RETAIL SALES APRIL 0.1% 1.6% 8:30 AM RETAIL SALES EX-AUTOS APRIL 0.8% 1.2% 8:30 AM EMPIRE STATE INDEX MAY -- 10.1 9:15 AM INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION APRIL -0.1% -0.1% 9.15 AM CAPACITY UTILIZATION APRIL 78.7% 78.8% 10 AM BUSINESS INVENTORIES MARCH -- 0.3% 10 AM NAHB HOME BUILDERS' INDEX MAY -- 63 THURSDAY, MAY 16 8:30 AM WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS 5/11 210,000 228,000 8:30 AM HOUSING STARTS APRIL 1.210MLN 1.139MLN 8:30 AM BUILDING PERMITS APRIL 1.292MLN 1.288MLN 8:30 AM PHILLY FED MANUFACTURING INDEX MAY 8.5 8.5 FRIDAY, MAY 17 10 AM CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX MAY 97.0 97.2 Source: MarketWatch
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