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Michael Cohen, President Donald Trump's former personal lawyer, testifies at the House Oversight Committee at the US Capitol in Washington, DC. (ddp)

Washington Weekly Cohen, the Mueller report and US-China Trade

01 March 2019, 9:03 pm CET, written by UBS Editorial Team

The report prepared by special counsel Robert Mueller is expected to be released in the very near future, according to the UBS US Office of Public Policy. John Savercool discusses a few issues that will be relevant to this report’s content and distribution.

Michael Cohen. Amidst the media buzz surrounding With keen interest from Congress and the public in seeing the former Trump lawyer’s Hill hearings, we had two the contents of Mueller’s report, Barr will be under pressure big takeaways. On the one hand, there was no further to release at least parts of it. Given that Mueller’s report evidence of collusion by the President. On the other, is likely to be replete with confidential information, Barr Cohen provided more detail on potential financial crimes may instead opt to issue his own redacted summary of the committed by the President while he was in the private investigation. There is no set timetable that the Attorney sector. The second point is a big deal for congressional General has to follow, but we believe he will act swiftly. Democrats who will more aggressively focus on this avenue Ammunition for Democrats? A key question is whether of investigation. They won’t give up on potential collusion, the report will give congressional Democrats any additional but this allegation seems to be losing steam in favor of the ammunition to advance a potential impeachment of new focus on potential financial crimes. The hearings are President Trump. The report may have a mixed conclusion unlikely to sway voters, most of whom have largely settled in the sense that it could clear Trump personally on the key views on the President and Michael Cohen. Nevertheless, issue of collusion with Russia while still identifying other allegations of wrongdoing and potential evidence of bad instances of wrongdoing. The full extent of the report’s character are never helpful to a President. findings is not yet known but obviously will be critically Attorney General Barr. Attorney General William Barr has important to the direction of the Trump presidency over the oversight of Robert Mueller's investigation, and Mueller will next 22 months. report his findings to him. Barr will make the decision on Potential US-China Trade Deal. Intense US-China whether to publicly issue the report or keep it confidential. negotiations over the last week have produced some UBS Investment Insights For UBS marketing purposes

agreement in the areas of currency, market access (particularly for the US financial services and agriculture sectors) and enforcement parameters. Other significant “structural” issues, such as forced technology transfers, Chinese government subsidies to exporters and intellectual property protections, remain unresolved and not close to agreement. Trump has been very bullish on the potential for a deal, leading many business leaders and lawmakers to fear he will ultimately settle on a very modest deal that won’t materially change how China engages in the global trading system. Trump has postponed plans to further increase tariffs on relevant Chinese imports after March 1 and said he hopes to wrap up a deal with Chinese President Xi in late March. There are many hurdles to clear before a substantive deal can be finalized, but both sides seem to want a deal so badly that it is hard for us to envision one not materializing sometime in late March or April.

Read more in Washington Weekly, 1 March 2019.

Main contributor: John Savercool, Head of UBS US Office of Public Policy

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