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The Tenth Big Move: Towards the Optimal Modal Split by Sanathan

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The Tenth Big Move: Towards the Optimal Modal Split by Sanathan Kassiedass A thesis presented to the University of Waterloo in fulfilment of the thesis requirement for the degree of Master of Environmental Studies in Planning Waterloo, Ontario, Canada, 2016 © Sanathan Kassiedass 2016 AUTHOR’S DECLARATION I hereby declare that I am the sole author of this thesis. This is a true copy of the thesis, including any required final revisions, as accepted by my examiners. I understand that my thesis may be made electronically available to the public. ii ABSTRACT The Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) is currently experiencing a crippling traffic congestion problem. With an average daily commute time of 82 minutes, residents experience some of the longest commute times in North America (Metrolinx, 2008c, 2013a). The region is also facing explosive growth in its population and economy. It is expected to grow from roughly 6.5 million people today to 9 million by 2031. Several forces have contributed to the current congestion problem including: population growth, a lack of spending on transit infrastructure and operations, low-density development and a lack of co-ordination between land-use and transportation planning. This study asks: as population growth in the GTHA continues, how might we encourage a positive shift in modal split to mitigate traffic congestion? The problem is a wicked problem, and is essentially the symptom of several other problems. To address the complexity, a qualitative mixed-methods approach has been applied. Key informant interviews were held with planners, politicians, business leaders, and transportation advocates to understand local impacts, solutions and barriers. Next, a Policy Delphi was utilized to seek input from a panel of international experts on best practices. Finally, a local Design Charrette was held to seek creative ideas from a group of professionals and other participants. This study finds strong local support for the priority actions referred to as the Nine Big Moves of the regional transportation plan. However it also identifies a gap, in that the plan is missing a transportation demand management (TDM) policy with a fiscal element to manage demand. Without this, the supply- side techniques proposed by the Big Move will have limited success in mitigating congestion in a growing region. RECOMMENDATIONS: This study recommends the pursuit of a road pricing policy to be included in transportation plans – a policy which would replace the gas tax and charge road users a varying rate (peak/off-peak) for every kilometer that they drive. It would act as a dis-incentive to auto use, encouraging a shift in trips to alternate modes, routes, or times of the day. As a bonus, it could also generate funds to be re-invested in the transportation network. This would be the tenth Big Move which pulls together the other nine priority actions already in play. It is recommended that such a program could be implemented through a trial, first initiated with a pilot. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS “Live as if you were to die tomorrow. Learn as if you were to live forever.” – Mahatma Gandhi In the time span invested in this master’s degree, I have done exactly that. With sincere gratitude, I wish to acknowledge a few of the many people who have not only provided academic support and encouragement, but enriched my life in many ways. First, to my thesis advisor, Dr. Mark Seasons: I have been incredibly fortunate to have your support and guidance throughout this process. You leveraged your own experience to help me adapt from the professional business world to the academic. You helped me work through a major ‘pivot’ in my research topic. You allowed autonomy and creativity in my work. And most importantly, you have been a very approachable mentor. Thank you for your time, patience, and invaluably helpful words. Second, a heart-felt thank you goes out to my committee members: Dr. Jeff Casello and Dr. Pierre Filion. Thank you for working with me on tight timelines, your thoughtful review and comments. To the rest of the faculty and staff within the School of Planning, and our library staff whom I have had the privilege of working with: thank you for everything I have learned with your assistance. Third, to the participants of my study: you are all very successful and distinguished individuals whose thoughts and opinions I highly respect. Thank you for taking time out of your busy days, and for your insights. I hope I have represented your collective views accurately, and have put forth recommendations that will be useful in addressing this problem of congestion. To my closest friends: you are all amazing people whom I am truly fortunate to have in my life. To Bob, James, and Zaker: thank you not only for referring me into the program, but for your support along the way. A special thank you to Rob: perhaps one of the greatest benefits of this experience has been gaining you as both a colleague and friend. Thank you for being a sounding board for many of my ideas these last couple years. My family. I could not have done this without you. Mom, dad, beya, Davi + Shekhar, Jaya, and uncle Bob. Thank you for all the help along the way. With all of life’s ups and downs you have always been there in countless ways. Last, but furthest from least, Shaleen (my fiancé), I have a very special thank you for you – please see over. iv DEDICATION This work is dedicated to two remarkable women: the one who gave me life, ambition, and the ability to dream; and the one whom I will spend my life with. Mom, I have often said that if I could pursue my work with your level of dedication, there is nothing that I could not achieve in this world. I think back to your struggles I witnessed growing up: going back to school while raising four kids, re-entering the workforce, and working two jobs many-a-times. You led by example, and taught me more than a thousand journal articles or multiple degrees ever could. Thank you from the bottom of my heart for all that you've done. Shaleeney Pie, the Apple-of-my-eye, You met me at an interesting point in my life to say the least, while I was juggling many things. Your patience, relentless support and most importantly your love got me through all this. You are truly amazing in every possible way – thank you for being by my side. They say life is not about the destination, it's about the journey: I can't wait to take this journey with you. v CONTENTS AUTHOR’S DECLARATION ............................................................................................................................. ii ABSTRACT ..................................................................................................................................................... iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ................................................................................................................................ iv DEDICATION .................................................................................................................................................. v LIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................................................................................... xi LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................................................ xii LIST OF MAPS ..............................................................................................................................................xiii Chapter 1 – Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................ 1 1.2 Study purpose and research questions ............................................................................................... 1 1.2.1 Grounding theories ...................................................................................................................... 2 1.3 Case study context .............................................................................................................................. 4 1.4 Thesis Organization ............................................................................................................................. 8 Chapter 2 – Literature Review ...................................................................................................................... 9 ....................................................................................................................................................... 9 2.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................ 9 2.2 The Congestion Problem ................................................................................................................... 10 2.2.1 Congested traffic moves fewer cars and people ....................................................................... 10 2.2.2 The Economic impact of traffic congestion ............................................................................... 11 2.2.3 The Health Impacts of Traffic Congestion .................................................................................. 14 2.2.4 The environmental impacts of congestion ...............................................................................
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