Tuesday, August 3, 2021 5-Day Statewide Weather Outlook No Threat Low Threat Moderate Threat High Threat Damaging Flash River Excessive Day Lightning Tornado Wildfire Rip Currents Wind/Hail Flooding Flooding Heat Big Bend & Panhandle Tue Statewide Nature Coast Northeast Florida South Florida Elsewhere Elsewhere Big Bend & Panhandle Wed Statewide Nature Coast Northeast Florida South Florida Elsewhere Elsewhere Panhandle Panhandle & Big Bend & Northeast Florida Thu Rest of the South Florida East Coast Nature Coast & Big Bend State West Coast Panhandle & Northeast Florida Northeast FL Fri Statewide East Coast & Big Bend & Peninsula West Coast Panhandle & Northeast Florida Northeast FL Sat Statewide East Coast & Big Bend & Peninsula West Coast
Rain Chances This Week: Wednesday (left), Thursday (center), and Friday (right)
Flash Flood Watches & Areal Flood Watches
Locally 6-8” this week!
Flood Watches in Effect Through Mid-Week Forecast Rainfall Totals Through Saturday Night
FDEM Statewide 5-Day Weather Outlook 08.03.21
…A Stalled Front Brings Heavy Rainfall to North & Central Florida This Week…Flash Flooding & River Flooding Possible…More Typical Rain Chances By This Weekend…Heat Index 100-108 Degrees…Tropics Remain Quiet for Now…
Tuesday – Thursday: A cold front is stalled out near North Florida, and will remain in place through Thursday. More clouds than sun are generally expeted across North and Central Florida over the next few days with several rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Rain chances will also continue into the overnight hours (especially along the Gulf Coast). Northwest of the stalled front across the western Panhandle, more sunshine and lower, typical rain chances for a summer day are expected. Due to the stalled out front, heavy rainfall will become a concern from the eastern Panhandle, to the Big Bend, Nature Coast, and parts of Northeast Florida. Flood Watches are in effect until mid-week. Across South Florida, a typical summertime weather pattern will continue through mid- week. Mostly sunny skies in the morning will become partly cloudy by the afternoon. Isolated showers and thunderstorms near the coasts in the morning will become more numerous over the course of the day and apread across inland areas. Before any relief from rainfall arrives, the heat and humidity will combine to make it feel like 100-108 degrees. As is typical for this time of year, a few thunderstorms across the state each day will be strong to briefly severe with damaging wind gusts of 45-60 mph. All thunderstorms will contain frequent lightning and heavy rainfall. Friday – Saturday: As the stalled front dissipates, a typical summertime weather pattern will return to the state for the upcoming weekend. Each day, isolated showers and thunderstorms near the coasts in the morning will give way to scattered thunderstorms across the entire state by the afternoon and evening. High temperatures will be in the 90s with a heat index from 100-108 degrees in many areas. Rain chances decrease after sunset and end across inland areas after midnight. Isolated showers and thunderstorms remain possible along the coasts into the early morning hours. Widespread or significant severe weather or flash flooding is not expected. However, any summertime thunderstorms could produce gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall.
FDEM Statewide 5-Day Weather Outlook 08.03.21
Tropics: A small area of low pressure with a few associated showers and thunderstorms has formed about 120 miles south of Praia in the Cabo Verde Islands near Africa. Further development of this system, if any, should be limited during the next day or two while it moves northward or northwestward before the system moves over cooler waters by Thursday. The National Hurricane Center only gives this system a 10% (low) chance of development over the next 48 hours. This system poses no threat to Florida and does not need to be monitored. For the latest on the tropics, please visit the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov. Additional tropical development is not expected this week. The tropics are likely to remain quiet until next week/mid-August as more favorable conditions develop over the Atlantic. The heart of hurricane season is fast approaching!
Hydrology: Heavy rainfall this week from the stalled front will result in river rises across North Florida. At this time, significant river flooding is Current & Forecast not expected, but minor flooding is currently River Levels forecast in several locations. A River Flood Warning is in effect for the Santa Fe River at Three River Estates, near Fort White, and at O’Leno State Park, the St. Marys River at Macclenny, and the Withlacoochee River at Holder and Dunnellon. While not in effect at this time, a River Flood Warning could be issued later this week for the Aucilla River at Lamont and parts of the Ochlockonee River upstream/north of Lake Talquin. Minor Flooding is forecast at these locations, and is also ongoing on some smaller lakes and streams across the state. Several additional rivers across the state are in Action Stage from recent heavy rainfall. For more details on specific river levels, please visit the River Forecast Center. Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 13.73 feet, which is within the operational band and near normal for this time of year. Lake levels will continue to slowly rise due to recent and forecasted rainfall.
Flash Flooding: With a stalled front over the northern half of the state, this will increase the risk of an isolated flash flood, and result in standing water in low-lying area. Any thunderstorms will be capable of producing 1-3” of rain in an hour with 5-day rainfall totals across the Big Bend, Northeast Florida, and West-Central Florida of 4-6”. Some localized areas may see as much as 8” this week. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for (from west to east) Bay, Calhoun, Gulf, Franklin, Liberty, Wakulla, Leon, Jefferson, Madison, Taylor, Lafayette, and Dixie until late tonight (but could be extended). An Areal Flood Watch is in effect for (from north to south) Gilchrist, Alachua, Levy, western and central Marion, Citrus, Hernando, and Sumter until Wednesday night. These watches mean that heavy rainfall could result in significant standing water in urban and low-lying areas, with an isolated case of more impactful flooding into homes or businesses.
FDEM Statewide 5-Day Weather Outlook 08.03.21
Rip Currents & Marine Hazards: Breezy onshore winds through mid-week will result in a high risk of rip currents for Panhandle beaches from Walton to Franklin County. With light winds elsewhere, Atlantic and West Coast beaches will have a low risk. Later in the week, winds will decrease in the Panhandle but become breezy along the East Coast. This may result in some yellow flags being flown for a moderate risk of rip currents at Atlantic and Panhandle beaches. Wave heights will be 1-3’ statewide this week.
A significant Red Tide bloom continues along the West Coast of the Peninsula, but has ended in Tampa Bay. High concentrations have been reported along the Gulf Coasts of Pinellas, Manatee, Sarasota, and Charlotte County with medium concentrations along southern Pasco and northern Lee County. Low concentrations have been observed offshore of Hernando and Citrus and in isolated areas of Collier County. These high concentrations are resulting in respiratory irritation for both sensitive individuals and the general public, along with numerous fish kills. Winds will be onshore for most of this week, with the bloom likely to remain out of Tampa Bay but slowly spreading northward toward Cedar Key. For the latest Red Tide concentration reports, please view the Florida Fish and Wildlife Commission map.
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For the official National Weather Service forecast, please click on the following cities: Pensacola Panama City Tallahassee Gainesville Jacksonville Daytona Beach Orlando Tampa Fort Myers West Palm Beach Miami Key West Click here for the latest watches, warnings, and advisories from The National Weather Service For coastal and offshore forecasts throughout Florida and Georgia, please click here. ------Have a great rest of the week! Michael Spagnolo, Deputy State Meteorologist Florida Division of Emergency Management | www.FloridaDisaster.org
FDEM Statewide 5-Day Weather Outlook 08.03.21