Friday, January 8, 2021 5-Day Statewide Weather Outlook No Threat Low Threat Moderate Threat High Threat Damaging Day Lightning Tornado Flooding Freeze Wildfire Fog Rip Currents Wind Northwest FL Fri Statewide Rest of North FL North Florida & West Coast Sat Nature Coast Elsewhere Central Florida Inland North East Coast Sun Florida Elsewhere Panhandle & SE FL Mon NE & E Central FL West Coast Panhandle Tue Southeast FL Northwest FL Peninsula

Forecast Fronts & Weather for Friday (left), Saturday (middle), and Sunday (right)

Forecast Rain Chances Monday Forecast Rainfall Totals Through Tuesday Night

FDEM Statewide 5-Day Weather Outlook 01.08.21

…Dry and Cool Weekend Statewide…Next System Brings Showers to the State Starting Sunday Night into Early Next Week…Red Tide Bloom Continues Along Coastal Southwest Florida…Dangerous Rip Currents Saturday and Again Early Week…

Friday Night - Sunday: A quiet weekend weather-wise is expected across the state. Clouds are hanging tough today for most, but they should clear out through tonight. Lows will be in the 30s across North Florida, 40s in Central Florida, and 50s in South Florida tonight. A light freeze is expected in the far western Panhandle. Light winds around 5 mph will likely prevent a widespread frost tonight in North Florida. Low Sunshine is expected for Saturday and Temperatures most of Sunday, though clouds begin to build Saturday Night back in Sunday afternoon in the Panhandle. (Blue = Freezing) But no rain is expected through Sunday afternoon. Highs both days will be in the 50s in North Florida with 60s in the Peninsula. Lows Saturday night will be near or below freezing in North Florida (upper 20s to lower 30s), mid- 30s to the lower 40s in Central Florida, and mid-40s to mid-50s in South Florida.

Sunday Night - Tuesday: An area of low pressure will move over the northern Gulf of Mexico through Monday and across the Big Bend and southern Georgia Monday night and Tuesday. A cold front will move through the state on the southern side of the area of low pressure. Late Sunday night into early Monday morning, scattered rain showers will begin across the western Panhandle. Temperatures at this time will likely be in the upper 30s to lower 40s, so it will be a very cold rain. The atmospheric conditions do not support wintry precipitation at this time as the air aloft will also be above freezing. With temperatures above freezing, no road impacts from black ice are expected. Elsewhere Sunday night, dry conditions are expected with lows in the mid-30s to lower 40s in North Florida, upper 30s to upper 40s in Central Florida, and lower 50s to lower 60s in South Florida. Monday will continue to feature cold rain showers across the Panhandle and Big Bend. It will feel quite raw as winds will also be Forecast Rain breezy at times. Isolated showers will also be Chances on possible in the Keys on Monday. As the area Tuesday of low pressure moves into the Big Bend,

FDEM Statewide 5-Day Weather Outlook 01.08.21 isolated showers will be possible across a majority of the state. No severe weather, flooding, or wintry precipitation is expected. By Tuesday, scattered showers will remain across South Florida with isolated showers farther north in Northeast and Central Florida. A couple isolated thunderstorms will be possible in Southeast Florida, but no significant weather is expected. Highs both Monday and Tuesday will reach the middle to upper 50s in the Panhandle and Big Bend, middle 60s to near 70 in Northeast and Central Florida, and lower to middle 70s in South Florida. Lows will be in the 40s in North Florida, 50s in Central Florida, and 60s in South Florida. Some mid to upper 30s are possible in Northwest Florida Tuesday night.

Drought & Fire Weather: Florida remains drought free, and soils are generally wet across the state. However, some abnormally dry conditions continue across lower portions Northeast and North Central Florida. The Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) average for the state is 181 (on Keetch-Byram a scale from 0-very wet to 800-very dry). Drought Index Humidity is expected to remain above (KBDI) as of critical levels through the next 5 days, though January 4, 2021 breezy winds are expected at times ahead of and behind the next system early next week. There are currently 7 active wildfires across the state burning a total of 333 acres.

Flooding & Hydrology:  WET DRY  A River Flood Warning remains in effect for the Ochlockonee River near Concord and near Havana. Minor flooding is ongoing along the river, but the river at both Concord and Havana will fall below flood stage this weekend. Several other North Florida rivers remain in action stage but are falling. Any additional rainfall over the next 5 days will not result in additional river flooding. For more information on specific rivers, please visit the Southeast River Forecast Center here. Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 15.73 feet, which is around one foot above normal for this time of year, but still in the target range for the start of the dry season. Water levels continue to slowly fall. High water levels across South Florida have made it difficult to discharge large amounts of water from Lake Okeechobee, and only small decreases in the Lake level are expected into next week.

Rip Currents & Marine Hazards: Breezy west to northwest winds today will subside into tomorrow. There will be a high rip current risk remaining along West Coast beaches where a High Surf Advisory is in effect (waves up to 6’). All other beaches will have a moderate risk on Saturday. By Sunday, winds will become northerly and lessen, leaving only a moderate rip current risk for Atlantic beaches and a low risk elsewhere. However, an area of low pressure will bring strong east to southeast winds across the state Monday, increasing the rip current risk yet again for Panhandle and

FDEM Statewide 5-Day Weather Outlook 01.08.21

Southeast Florida beaches to high with a moderate risk elsewhere along the East Coast. The moderate to high rip current risk continues at all beaches on Tuesday as the system departs. A bloom of Red Tide continues in Red Tide Southwest Florida. Medium to high Concentrations concentrations have been observed along from FWC – the coasts of Lee and Collier Counties. This is Past 8 Days resulting in some respiratory irritation at local beaches along with fish kills. Beach Hazards Statements are now in effect for Collier and Lee Counties. Some very low concentrations have been observed along Charlotte County. Little change in Red Tide concentrations are expected through the weekend. For the latest Red Tide concentration reports, please view the Florida Fish and Wildlife Commission map.

NWS Mobile Daily Hazards NWS Tallahassee Daily Graphical Hazards NWS Jacksonville Daily Hazards NWS Melbourne Daily Graphical Hazards NWS Tampa Daily Graphical Hazards NWS Miami Daily Graphical Hazards NWS Key West Daily Hazards

For the official National Weather Service forecast, please click on the following cities: Pensacola Panama City Tallahassee Gainesville Jacksonville Daytona Beach Orlando Tampa Fort Myers West Palm Beach Miami Key West Click here for the latest watches, warnings, and advisories from The National Weather Service For coastal and offshore forecasts throughout Florida and Georgia, please click here. ------Have a great weekend! Cameron Young, Assistant State Meteorologist Florida Division of Emergency Management www.FloridaDisaster.org

FDEM Statewide 5-Day Weather Outlook 01.08.21