5-Day Weather Outlook 01.29.21
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Friday, January 29, 2021 5-Day Statewide Weather Outlook No Threat Low Threat Moderate Threat High Threat Damaging Day Lightning Tornado Flooding Freeze Wildfire Fog Rip Currents Wind/Hail Southeast FL Big Bend Central Fri Panhandle, E Coast Inland North FL Florida West Coast Panhandle & SE FL Northeast Sat East Coast Florida West Coast North South Panhandle & SE FL Sun Big Bend Big Bend Florida Florida Elsewhere W Panhandle Gulf Coast Mon Big Bend, NE FL, East Coast & Nature Coast Inland North FL Central & West Coast Tue Rest of North FL South FL Elsewhere & Nature Coast Forecast Fronts & Weather for Sunday (left), Monday (center), and Tuesday (left) Forecast Low Temperatures Tonight; Blue = Freezing Forecast Rainfall Totals Through Tuesday Night FDEM Statewide 5-Day Weather Outlook 01.29.21 …Warming Temperatures This Weekend…Next System Brings Showers & Storms Saturday Night through Monday Morning…Low Confidence in Severe Threat, Would Be in the Big Bend On Sunday If It Happens…Much Colder Air Returns Next Week…Severe Weather Awareness Week 2021 Is Next Week… Severe Weather Awareness Week: Florida’s 2021 Severe Weather Awareness Week is February 1-5 this year. Each day will highlight a different weather hazard that impacts the state of Florida. For more information, please visit https://www.floridadisaster.org/dem/directors-office/media/swaw/. Monday: Lightning Tuesday: Marine Hazards & Rip Currents Wednesday: Thunderstorms & Tornadoes (Statewide Tornado Drill @ 10 AM ET/9 AM CT) Thursday: Hurricanes & Flooding Friday: Wildfires & Extreme Temperatures Friday - Saturday: High pressure will begin to degrade on Saturday as our next system approaches. Clouds will begin to increase across the Panhandle through Saturday night. Moisture will also be increasing along with temperatures statewide ahead of our next system. This will result in scattered showers Saturday night in the western Panhandle. No thunderstorms are expected through Saturday night. Rain Chances Lows tonight will be in the mid-30s to lower Saturday Night 40s across North Florida, mid-40s to lower 50s in Central Florida, and mid-50s to lower 60s in South Florida. Some patchy frost will be possible tonight in inland parts of North Florida tonight. On Saturday, highs will rise into the 60s across North Florida with 70s in the Peninsula. Lows Saturday night will mostly be in the 50s with 60s in South Florida and the western Panhandle. Patchy fog will be possible across Northeast Florida, some of it could be locally dense. Sunday - Monday: A cold front sweeps across the state Sunday and Monday, bringing showers and thunderstorms along with it then colder air behind it. On Sunday, showers and thunderstorms will be possible across North Florida, starting in the Panhandle and Big Bend in the morning, then moving into Northeast Florida in the afternoon. Some storms could become strong to briefly Rain Chances Sunday FDEM Statewide 5-Day Weather Outlook 01.29.21 severe on Sunday in the Big Bend. However, this is a conditional threat and will only occur if enough energy can materialize for severe storms. If it were to occur, the primary threats would be gusty winds of 40-60 mph and isolated tornadoes. By Sunday night, most storms will move into Central Florida while weakening, then across South Florida as some scattered showers on Monday morning. Temperatures will take a bit of a roller coaster ride through the weekend. Highs on Sunday will be in the 70s. Lows Sunday night will range from the 40s in North Florida to the 60s in South Florida. Highs Monday will only reach the 50s across North Florida with 70s in South Florida. By Monday night, lows will be in the 30s and lower 40s in North and Central Florida with mid-40s to near 50 in South Florida and up to 60 in the Keys. Winds will likely be too strong for frost to develop. However, wind Wind Chills chills will be in the mid to upper 20s in North Tuesday Morning Florida with 30s as far south as Lake Okeechobee by Tuesday morning. Tuesday: High pressure will settle back in and keep a lid on the weather. Sunny skies are expected with highs in the 50s north of I-4 with 60s south of I-4. Winds will be breezy, making it feel colder. Winds will subside Tuesday night, allowing temperatures to fall rather quickly. Lows will be in the lower to middle 30s north of I-4 with 40s to the south. With lighter winds, wind chills will not be a concern. However, areas of frost could develop across areas north of I-4 by Wednesday morning. Drought & Fire Weather: Abnormally dry conditions continue to spread across Central Florida with a new area now in the western Panhandle. However, beneficial rain did fall in some of these areas earlier this week and was not captured in this week’s Drought Monitor. With little additional rainfall over the next 5 days, Keetch-Byram there could be some expansion of abnormally Drought Index dry areas in next week’s Drought Monitor. (KBDI) as of Relative humidity today may fall to January 29, 2021 near or below critical levels in North and Central Florida (25-35%). However, winds are relatively light (less than 10 mph). Soils are also wet across North Florida, though drier across Central Florida. Thus, there is a low wildfire threat for Central Florida this afternoon. Through Monday, relative WET DRY humdiity will remain well above critical levels, FDEM Statewide 5-Day Weather Outlook 01.29.21 but winds will become breezy to windy at times. On Tuesday, relative humidity could approach critical levels in some areas with breezy winds of 10-15 mph. With Central and South Florida being dry, these areas will have a low risk on Tuesday. The Keetch-Byram Drought Index is currently 215 statewide, on a scale of 0 (wet) to 800 (dry). The driest areas are currently the lower Suwannee Valley and Southeast Florida. There are currently 6 active wildfires across the state burning a total of 75.9 acres. All 6 are 100% contained. Flooding & Hydrology: A River Flood Warning is in effect for the Ochlockonee River near Concord from this Current/Forecast evening through late Monday night. Minor River Levels flooding is forecast along the river which is forecast to crest on Saturday. No additional river flooding is expected, though several rivers across North Florida remain in action stage (bank-full). Rainfall through the next 5 days will generally be less than 0.50”, so no flash flooding is expected. Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 15.52 feet, which is within the operational band but 0.85 feet above normal for this time of year. Water levels continue to slowly fall with the dry weather. Rip Currents & Marine Hazards: Beach conditions will remain hazardous for the next 5 days as winds and seas remain elevated. Winds on Saturday become south to southeasterly and breezy, resulting in a high rip current risk for Panhandle and Southeast Florida beaches Red Tide with a moderate risk along other Atlantic Concentrations beaches. By Sunday, the rip current risk will from FWC – Past 8 also increase to moderate along the West Days Coast. After a cold front passes late Sunday into Monday, winds will shift out of the northwest, resulting in a high rip current risk at Gulf Coast beaches and a moderate risk at Atlantic beaches. The rip current risk along Panhandle and Atlantic beaches will decrease to low on Tuesday but remain high at West Coast beaches. Waves will be about 3-6’ at most beaches through the next 5 days, building along the Gulf Coast this weekend while subsiding along the East Coast. A bloom of Red Tide continues in Southwest Florida. Medium to high concentrations have been observed along the Lee and northern Collier County coasts. This is resulting in some localized respiratory irritation at some beaches along with fish kills. For the latest Red Tide concentration reports, please view the Florida Fish and Wildlife Commission map. FDEM Statewide 5-Day Weather Outlook 01.29.21 NWS Mobile Daily Hazards NWS Tallahassee Daily Graphical Hazards NWS Jacksonville Daily Hazards NWS Melbourne Daily Graphical Hazards NWS Tampa Daily Graphical Hazards NWS Miami Daily Graphical Hazards NWS Key West Daily Hazards For the official National Weather Service forecast, please click on the following cities: Pensacola Panama City Tallahassee Gainesville Jacksonville Daytona Beach Orlando Tampa Fort Myers West Palm Beach Miami Key West Click here for the latest watches, warnings, and advisories from The National Weather Service For coastal and offshore forecasts throughout Florida and Georgia, please click here. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Have a great weekend! Cameron Young, Assistant State Meteorologist Florida Division of Emergency Management www.FloridaDisaster.org FDEM Statewide 5-Day Weather Outlook 01.29.21 .