Vol. 54, p. 312-342, jul./dez. 2020. DOI: 10.5380/dma.v54i0.69022. e-ISSN 2176-9109 Modelling susceptibility of Abrolhos reefs to coral bleaching Modelagem da susceptibilidade ao branqueamento nos corais dos recifes de Abrolhos Samira da Conceição SABADINI1, Sónia Maria CARVALHO-RIBEIRO1*, Zelinda Margarida de Andrade Nery LEÃO2, Úrsula de Azevedo RUCHKYS1, Ruy Kenji Papa de KIKUCHI2, Britaldo SOARES-FILHO1 1 Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG), Belo Horizonte, MG, Brasil. 2 Universidade Federal da Bahia (UFBA), Salvador, BA, Brasil. * E-mail of contact:
[email protected] Article received on September 4, 2019, final version accepted on May 13, 2020, published on November 16, 2020. ABSTRACT: Coral reefs suffer many threats, including coral bleaching, which occurs mainly in response to environmental variables such as positive temperature anomalies. However, there is a need to explore potential synergies between environmental and anthropogenic variables. The objective of this work is to use multi-criteria analysis to explore associations between environmental and anthropogenic variables in order to estimate in a spatially explicit way the susceptibility of the different Abrolhos reefs in Bahia, Brazil, to coral bleaching. Our results show that from 2001 to 2016 there was a sharp increase in the reef areas with higher susceptibility to bleaching. While in 2001, 20% of the reef area presented low susceptibility to bleaching and 80% showed medium susceptibility, in 2016, 19% of the area showed medium and 81% showed high susceptibility. 2016 presented the highest susceptibility among the years used in the study, suggesting a higher percentage of bleached colonies, which is corroborated by the fact that this year was considered by NASA and NOAA as the hottest year since 1880.