Ethiopia - Regional Cities Foreword

Home , Bishoftu, Dewele, Dire Dawa, Mekelle, Shinile (woreda)

Future Proofing Cities Ethiopia - Regional Cities Foreword

It is a great pleasure to introduce these Future-Proofing Cities Studies, covering cities in Ethiopia, Ghana, Mozambique and Uganda. These studies, form an integral part of the Future Cities Africa (FCA) Programme that the Cities Alliance has undertaken over the past two years, with financial support of DFID. These studies covered nine cities that were carefully selected to represent metropolitan cities, secondary cities, regional capitals and cities within growth corridors. Together, they exemplify the challenges of contemporary rapid urban growth, and the opportunities and promise that African cities can and must hold for the future of the continent.

While demonstrating important differences between the cities, there is a common thread that is well understood by national governments and city managers alike: a combination of enabling national policies, strong institutions, well-resourced and accountable local governments, and informed and engaged citizens are essential for local and national prosperity. On the African continent it is precisely these type of cities, in every country, that will have to be empowered to contribute to the successful implementation of Agenda 2030, and grapple with the consequences of climate change. However, time is very short, as the majority of urban growth is determined more by facts on the ground than by effective policy-making.

I would like to thank Jamie Simpson, Erika Puspa and the entire FCA team for their outstanding work in completing a complex work programme against demanding deadlines, our colleagues at Arup International Development for the high quality of these studies, and Simon Ratcliffe and his colleagues at DFID (UK) for their constant support and encouragement.

William Cobbett Cities Alliance Director

Ethiopia – Regional Cities is part of the Future Cities Africa (FCA) initiative in partnership with Cities Alliance and the UK Department for International Development (DFID).

FCA is a partnership initiative launched by Cities Alliance and DFID to support cities in Ghana, Ethiopia, Uganda and Mozambique as they transform themselves into resilient, inclusive centres of economic growth.

Unless specified, all images are copyright Cities Alliance or Arup Future Proofing Cities | Regional Cities in Ethiopia

Acknowledgements

This report has been developed by Arup in collaboration with Cities Alliance as part of Department for International Development’s Future Cities Africa programme. We would like to thank the Future Cities Africa team and the wide range of stakeholders we consulted in Ethiopia for making time to contribute to this study. Also, we wish to recognise the valuable guidance and feedback we’ve received from the Cities Alliance team on our findings and how best to communicate them.

Jo da Silva Director Arup International Development

On behalf of Arup International Development’s study team: Jose M. Ahumada, Kieran Birtill, Andrew Charles, Jo da Silva, Belinda Hewitt, Ripin Kalra, Braulio Eduardo Morera, Siddharth Nadkarny, Samantha Stratton-Short, James Waters

Graphic design: Mark Doyle

Contents

Introduction...... 2 Approach...... 5

Ethiopia...... 7 Regional Cities...... 10 Mekele...... 15 Dire Dawa...... 27 Final Thoughts...... 39

Appendix...... 44 Low-carbon initiatives...... 45 Information mapping...... 48 References...... 49 African governments are counting on urbanisation to lift their nations out of poverty.

Figure 1. Street in Mekele

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Introduction

The majority of Africa’s population will shift from rural to urban in the next thirty years. Future Cities Africa aims to help cities achieve inclusive economic growth, manage demographic change, and address environmental risks.

Africa is going through an Globally, future city growth will economic boom and cities are be almost exclusively in Africa at the centre of this pathway to and Asia, representing over 90% “The emerging future of economic prosperity. Two key of the world’s urban population features are set to alter Africa’s growth (WEF, 2015). In its recent cities largely depends future: a youthful population and report, Future of African Cities: on the way we plan and urbanisation. Combined, these Poles of Prosperity or Slums of manage urbanisation, and features are defining the boom Despair (2015), the Brenthurst the way we leverage this in trade and industry and will Foundation indicates that by mid- transformative process to push modernisation and increase 2030 half of all Africans will live in connectivity across the continent cities. They suggest that three main ‘provide the setting, the (KPMG, 2012). drivers of African urbanisation are underlying base and also fuelling these historic changes in the momentum for global Africa’s cities are emerging as the continent: natural population centres of entrepreneurship, change” growth, rural-urban migration, innovation, creativity and invention. and large-scale dynamics such Africa is now the fastest-growing as connectivity, technology Joan Clos region in the world in terms of and globalisation (Brenthurst Executive Director UN-Habitat mobile telephone and internet Foundation, 2015). Linked to these access. It is anticipated that mobile drivers of growth, greenhouse gas data usage will increase twenty emissions in the region are expected times between 2013 and 2019 to grow rapidly, primarily through (Ericsson, 2014). Africa is also the increased fossil fuel use, and final inhabited continent on the agricultural expansion (Hogarth et planet to urbanise. al, 2015).

75 or over 50 to 75 25 to 50 Less than 25 1950 2014 2050 (projection)

Figure 2. Percentage of the population residing in urban areas Based on World Urbanization Prospects, The 2014 Revision. UN 2015

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African city megatrends Development megatrends impacting African cities can be viewed as opportunities or risks depending on a city’s context.

Figure 3: African city megatrends - highlighting Ethiopian megatrends based on Z-punkt, n.d. & Arup Cities Alive, 2014

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The challenge facing African The report discusses how Ethiopia cities is to provide their citizens plans to transition from a nation with equal economic opportunities with one of the lowest urban while transitioning to a low carbon populations in the world - just economy, using limited resources over 17% - to a majority urban efficiently, and managing rapid and middle-income nation in urban and population growth. 2025. Some estimates indicate that African cities also need to manage Ethiopia’s urban population will the impacts of a youthful population. increase three times in the next 20+ “The current wave of In Uganda, for example, the years, achieving an extreme urban urban growth in Africa is majority population is younger than growth rate of over 5% per year. occurring faster and on a 15. This leads African leaders to This report will also discuss the question whether their demographic impact the urbanisation strategy is larger scale than anything profile is an economic godsend or having on the regional development the world has yet witnessed, ticking time-bomb (World Bank, of the country. To discuss these and therefore poses the 2012). messages, Future Cities Africa has selected two cities, Mekele and greatest challenge yet for For African cities to be successful urban and national policy- Dire Dawa, to indicate the current they should adopt integrated and urbanisation trends and to highlight makers.” holistic urban planning practices key challenges these cities may face that consider not only inclusive in the future. Brenthurst Foundation, 2015 economic development and low- carbon development pathways but This report relates to regional also the environmental and social capitals in Ethiopia and represents impacts of growth to promote one of four reports prepared for liveable cities. Cities need to plan Future Cities Africa. Each report for growth that is future-proofed for covers a specific country, its our changing climate, the challenges national urbanisation strategy of scarce natural resources, and and its specific regional planning underlying geophysical risks. typology. The other three reports include: metropolitan cities in This report relates to urbanisation as Ghana, secondary cities in Uganda, it is currently happening in Ethiopia. and urban growth corridors in It captures the present situation of Mozambique. Figure 4. Light rail service in Addis Ababa cities and also the government’s Credits: natamariam/photobucket planned urbanisation strategy.

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Approach

Future Cities Africa seeks to support cities in Africa to become future- proofed for climate, environment and natural resource challenges, so that they are inclusive and resilient, and have growing economies. It will help make cities work for the urban poor. It will conduct an in depth feasibility and scoping study and develop innovative tools to enable rapidly growing African cities to realise their potential as centres of growth and job creation; and use research and evidence to develop targeted urban action plans. Future Cities Africa Business Case and Intervention Summary (DFID, 2014)

City Governments are trying to... Future Cities Africa is working with Sub-Saharan (SSA) cities to future-proof them for the range of Manage social, economic, and environmental risks they are exposed to now and will be exposed to in the future. Achieve Demographic As discussed above, African cities transition are experiencing rapid population Physical & social growth and urbanisation alongside Inclusive economic a range of severe environmental growth shocks and stresses. City governments in Africa tend to Risk Climate change have limited institutional capacity, Natural resources over-stretched financial and human Geophysical resources, and limited data to guide decision-making. Future Cities Future Proof Africa has identified three key Figure 5: Future Cities Africa drivers drivers (see Fig. 5) that are shaping African cities: achieving inclusive economic growth, managing demographic change, and addressing local risks associated with climate These studies are part of an in-depth organisations better understand change, natural resources, and feasibility and scoping phase to the specific challenges each city is geophysical risks. develop diagnostic tools to enable facing. Arup was asked to prepare Future- these cities to realise their growth Two tools are used as part of our Proofing City Studies for nine cities potential and begin to guide this data analysis to help us dig-deeper in four countries: Mekele and Dire growth toward a more resilient and into the capacity to act and risks Dawa (Ethiopia); Accra and Tema inclusive future. We hope that these in the cities - the Cities Alliance (Ghana); Tete, Nampula, and Nacala city studies will help practitioners Normative Framework and the Arup (Mozambique); and Jinja and Arua in local municipalities, national Environmental Risk Framework. (Uganda). administrations, and international

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Normative Framework Urban ER

Drivers of risk NABLING ENVIR CAL E ONM YSI EN Regional PH T Local Global

SER

VICES k NMENT RO ENVI

P E I I C

ONO SH N FCA M ZE program I Y T Biological & Natural entry-point I C resource risk

GOVERNANCE Dimensions of environmental ris

IN T ST EN ITU M Geophysical Risk TIO IRON NAL ENABLING ENV

Figure 6: Normative Framework Figure 7: Urban ER

The Normative Framework describes the physical Arup has developed an Urban Environmental Risk and institutional environment which can support Framework (Urban ER) in order to help cities to cities to achieve inclusive economic growth, to understand and address the critical environmental manage demographic change and to future-proof challenges which shape urban wellbeing. The against environmental risks. The Framework helps: Framework identifies three dimensions of identify relevant data sources, facilitate discussions environmental risk for African cities: climatic, and build understanding of the factors that African biological, and natural resource and geophysical cities need to ‘get right’ to achieve inclusive growth, hazards. A current risk rating is provided through an manage demographic change, and address future risk. understanding of existing threats. A future risk rating The Framework is a tool to assess the physical and is provided based on the drivers of risk at three scales: institutional enabling environment within African local (such as loss of local biodiversity), regional cities, and provides an evidence base for future (such as poor regional planning policy), and global planning, investment and decision-making. As part (such as climate change). Through understanding of this work, the Framework mapped the available the drivers of environmental risk, we can help city information for each city and to provide an holistic governments, advisors and stakeholders understand understanding of each city’s assets according to the how local urban development pathways can create five dimensions of the Framework. or compound risk. Urban ER can also help cities evaluate their capacity to act at different levels in order to mitigate current risk, and collaborate with others on a local, regional and global level to achieve a more resilient future.

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Ethiopia %

Ethiopia currently has low levels of urbanisation and 17.2 a predominantly agricultural economy. However the country is rapidly urbanising and one of the fastest- growing economies on the continent. of Ethiopians live in urban areas Ethiopia is Africa’s oldest government and unified the country. independent country and its second Ethiopia experienced dramatic most populous, with a population political change after the military of 90 million (UNDP, 2015). The regime was defeated. The country country has a unique history and introduced the principle of ethnic cultural heritage. Ethiopia has self-determination and decentralised never been colonised, aside from organisation under a system of a five-year Italian occupation in federal governance. 1936-1941. Unlike other African countries where mining was a Currently, Ethiopia is experiencing primary reason for colonisation rapid urbanisation and remarkable (Bekele, 2016), Ethiopia still has economic growth with a 10.3% a wealth of unexploited minerals growth rate in GDP recorded in and limited geological information 2013/14 (ADB, 2015). Ethiopia linked to its unique history. A has a vision of becoming a middle- military regime known as the Derg, income country by 2025. The ruled Ethiopia Between 1974 and poverty rate has already decreased 1991. Opposition to the Derg led from 39% in 2004/5 to 26% in to the Ethiopian Civil War. The 2012/13, and there has been a 53% war ended in 1991 as the Ethiopian increase in its absolute Human People’s Revolutionary Democratic Development Index (HDI) since Front, a coalition of ethnic-based 2000 (Cities Alliance, 2015). rebel groups overthrew the military

Figure 8: Addis Ababa Credit: OER Africa/Flickr 7 Future Proofing Cities | Regional Cities in Ethiopia

Ethiopia at a glance

Economic growth in 2013- 2014 Low proportion of urban population

Ethiopia is one of fastest % growing economies in 10.3 Africa 17.2 %

Poverty rate In 2012, 15.2m out of 90m people lived in urban areas - one of lowest in Decreased from the world & below SSA average of 37% % % 26 Urban population set to 39 dramatically grow 2004/2005 2012/2013

The poverty rate has decreased drastically in the last 10 years 50m 40m Employment 30m

of the population is 20m % employed in 10m agriculture 85 2012 2034

The country’s urban population is projected to increase from 15.2m in 2012 to 42.3m by 2037, an annual growth rate of 3.8%

Figure 9: Ethiopia Infographic 8 Future Proofing Cities | Regional Cities in Ethiopia

In recent years, the government through enhancing productivity in has made major investments in manufacturing and agriculture while economic and social infrastructure. also improving quality of production Pro-poor spending increased from and stimulating competition in 28% in 2000 to 70% today; and the economy (Federal Democratic education provision has expanded Republic of Ethiopia, 2016). Key extensively at all levels. industries that will be supported in this planned industrialisation However, as retention rates show, process include textiles and quality of education is still lacking garments, agro-processing in some areas and healthcare is (including floriculture and sugar still weak, particularly in terms factories) and mineral extraction and of maternal health. The country’s processing. The country’s strong tax take-to-GDP ratio remains low system of governance, relatively at 12.5% in 2012/13 compared low corruption and diversifying with the SSA average of over economy suggest that this goal is 20%. This shows that despite achievable. significant absolute gains in HDI, inclusive growth and development To reach the national vision and are occurring only slowly. The sustain “rapid, broad-based and country has not moved appreciably equitable economic growth and in its relative HDI ranking since development”, cities will be key. 2000. It remains at 173 out of 186 Currently the urban population is countries in the latest UNDP Human growing at an estimated 5.4%. This Development Report (UNDP, 2015). is set to triple from 15.2 million in 2012 to 42.3 million in 2037 Its economy is strongly based on (World Bank, 2015). To support the agriculture, which employs 85% planned industrial growth, national of the population. The dependence policy includes plans for industrial on agriculture leaves the economy estates, special economic zones and vulnerable to environmental agro-processing centres. To move challenges, particularly droughts Ethiopia to middle-income status, and flooding. However now that the federal government is investing the conflict with its northern in industry and regional cities. For neighbour, Eritrea, has ended, national growth to maintain social foreign investment is flowing in harmony and address regional and there are many economic areas inequalities, development must of opportunity. In 2014 Ethiopia’s be spread across the country and inward foreign direct investment therefore across cities in all regions. (FDI) was $1.2 billion, up from $953 million in the previous The following section describes the year, and $279 million the year national urbanisation strategy as it before that (UNCTAD, 2015). relates to regional cities in Ethiopia. The recently released Growth This strategy will be illustrated and Transformation Plan II aims through two city studies for Mekele to achieve middle-income status and Dire Dawa.

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Regional cities

Ethiopia’s regional cities have a relatively high level of political autonomy, prioritised around urban ‘clusters’ of cities of a million-plus people with smaller urban centres nearby, and ‘growth poles’ along transport corridors. This is to achieve balanced growth in the goal of becoming a middle-income country.

Figure 10: View of Mekele Credit: Kris Fricke/Flickr

A key characteristic of cities in strong leadership on this investment Ethiopia is the ten-fold difference strategy, having undertaken a in size between the capital, Addis process to prioritise cities for future Ababa – at over three million and development. The prioritisation other cities. The largest secondary is based on plans for ‘clusters’ cities are spread across the country, of urban economic centres, with with most in the northern half of the improved connectivity using country. key transportation corridors or High economic growth ‘growth poles’. This will allow Ethiopia’s recent Growth and With an average annual GDP major agglomeration effects to Transformation Plan II (GTPII) enable the country to reach its growth rate of 10.8%, Ethiopia includes plans to attract investment goal of middle-income status. is one of Africa’s fastest growing to cities beyond Addis Ababa by The plan for economic corridors, economies. finalising ongoing transportation based on regional city clusters development and establishing and significantly improved inter- industrial parks, and linking Addis regional transport connectivity, aims Ababa to dry and sea ports. The to achieve balanced development Ministry of Urban Development of secondary cities and their rural and Housing (MUDHo) has taken hinterlands (Fig. 13).

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This plan for urban clusters This situation presents both a key will function within Ethiopia’s challenge and opportunity for decentralised system of relative Ethiopia. Relatively small, rapidly regional autonomy. Ethiopia has growing cities are experiencing Market centres with poor decentralised administration to a number of challenges but are regional connections the regions to encourage more ‘young’ enough to implement While industries such as tourism and consistent growth across the urbanisation plans that could enable mining are strengthening regional country. Regional city proclamations sustainable development. connections, outside the capitals have given cities wider remits for transport is poor service delivery, which include state Cities in Ethiopia are still largely functions and municipal functions market centres, where the greatest (such as locally managed waste proportion of employment comes management). from wholesale and retail trade. This is beginning to change as new Despite its large population, investment is focused on increasing Ethiopia has the lowest proportion economic opportunity in the cities of people currently living in cities. to meet the demands of the growing However, this is quickly changing population and address high levels Urbanisation trade-offs with an urbanisation rate of around of unemployment. Construction and 5% per year (MUDHCo, 2015a). manufacturing industries is driving Urbanisation is helping to deliver This could mean that in 2035, 37 current investment in cities. Other services to more concentrated to 40% of the national population industries that will benefit from populations, but it is also putting will be living in cities. The ten-fold regional connections are tourism, pressure on limited natural gap in scale between the capital mining and livestock. However, resources Addis Ababa, and the next largest poor connectivity within each urban centre characterises Ethiopia’s region and the differences between urbanisation (The New Climate rural and urban access to resources Economy, 2014) (Fig. 11). limits how effectively cities are

4M Addis Ababa

0 Adama Gonder Mekele Awasa Bahir Dire Dese Jima Jijiga Shashemene Bishoftu Dar Dawa

Figure 11: Most populated cities in Ethiopia

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able to benefit from their regional level of informal settlements almost access to basic services (MUDHCo & resources. Outside the regional matches the level of population ECSU, 2015). capitals, transport infrastructure is growth, a clear signal that the cities very poor, restricting the movement are not coping with the increasing Meanwhile, environmentally, issues of perishable goods, and access to demand for new housing. of ecosystem dependency are largely basic services such as electricity and overlooked in current planning and water in limited. Ethiopia has an added unusual policies. For example, Mekele is characteristic from many other dependent on the limited capacity of While Ethiopia’s urbanisation developing countries in the quality the Aynalen Wells Aquifer, which is strategies match national economic of urban growth: there is not always currently at risk of chronic drought growth plans, there is arguably a a direct relationship between the and over extraction (Amdework, disconnect with the availability of informality of settlements and poor 2016) and is slowly being depleted natural resources to satisfy cities’ quality of housing and/or service (Future Cities Africa, 2015). Plans growing populations and industrial provision in a neighbourhood. In for augmenting supply to meet future ambitions. Cities have undertaken some cases informal settlements demands have not been made. service delivery improvements have higher quality housing and are and adopted various types of better serviced than legally planned There is therefore a genuine management tools such as strategic settlements. In cities such as Addis opportunity for Ethiopian cities planning and management (SPM) Ababa for example some ‘illegal’ to invest proactively in systems and business process re-engineering settlements are not sub-standard and planning that anticipate urban (BPR), as part of the national civil and are connected to basic services development trends and avert some service reform program. While (World Bank, 2004). On the other of the consequences of rapidly there are clear signs of economic hand other legal settlements which growing cities that other countries are growth, cities are struggling to cope are usually managed by local experiencing. with the demands of urbanisation, governments would be classified environmental stresses and poverty as informal given that they are in alleviation. To illustrate the current unplanned neighbourhoods and lack

Figure 12: Mekele Shops Credits: Mariusz Kluzniak/Flickr 12 Future Proofing Cities | Regional Cities in Ethiopia Red Sea Existing and under construction railway lines Eritrea Massawa Port Urban and economic clusters Yemen Primary urban centre Secondary urban centre

Sudan Mekelle Shire Mekelle

Condar Gonder Gulf of Aden Djibouti Bahir Dar Djibouti Port

Dese Dewele

Debre Markos Dire Dawa

Nekemte Addis Ababa Bishoftu Harar Jijiga Awash

Adama Gambela Ethiopia Jimma Shashemene

Awassa South Sodo Sudan Somalia

Arba Minch

Uganda Kenya

13 Red Sea Existing and under Future Proofing Cities | Regional Cities in Ethiopia construction railway lines Eritrea Massawa Port Urban and economic clusters Yemen Primary urban centre Secondary urban centre

Sudan Mekelle Shire Mekelle

Condar Gonder Mekele Gulf of Aden Mekele, described as the ‘Star of the North’, is a Djibouti steadily expanding city of 300,000 inhabitants in a Bahir region of 5 million inhabitants. It is a historic trading Dar Djibouti centre with potential for greater international reach. The Port limited capacity of the local aquifer is resulting in a severe water crisis in the city. Dese Dewele

Debre Markos Dire Dawa

Nekemte Addis Ababa Bishoftu Harar Jijiga Awash Dire Dawa Dire Dawa is the only city other than Addis to have Adama “chartered city” status. While it is not a regional capital, Gambela it is considered a Regional City given its political importance between different ethnic regions. Dire Ethiopia Dawa has the same level of autonomy as that given to Jimma Shashemene the states – it is free to make its own decisions subject to the constitution and Federal government. However, Awassa because it is unable to draw resources from a region, the city is at risk of becoming less important and having to South Sodo compete with its neighbours. Sudan Somalia

Arba Minch

Uganda Kenya Figure 13: Map of Ethiopia with urban and economic clusters 0 100 200 400 km

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Mekele 40% Mekele has been held back for years because of the conflict with Eritrea. Given its good of households in Mekele use connections for trade and transport, it is now set electricity for cooking, up to grow. from 5% in less than a decade

Known as the ‘Star of the North’, populous in Ethiopia estimated at University and Mekele Institute of Mekele City was founded in the 341,000 in 2016 (CSA, 2013). The Technology as well as 94 schools 13th Century. It was the capital of city sits at an elevation of 2000m (79 for grades 1-8 and 15 for grade Ethiopia in the 1870s. Today it is with relatively high temperatures 11-12). a vibrant hub of culture, industry and evenly distributed rainfall and education. Historically, the throughout the year. The largest The city is connected though a new city served as a market town. ethnic group is Tigray (96%) the international airport, an international Camel caravans brought salt to majority of whom are reportedly railway network primarily for trade from the volcanic lakes to the Orthodox Christians (93%) freight, frequent intercity bus East. The area is of great historical (MUHDCo, 2015b). services and has a mostly paved interest, serving as the gateway to road network (85%). The city has the World Heritage Sites of Axum Culturally, Mekele benefits from good healthcare and educational and its rock-hewn churches. A a number of heritage sites nearby service coverage. Health extension number of attractive landmarks which offer great tourism potential. workers are now providing door-to- feature in the city, including a civil With the highest number of door healthcare. The population-to- war monument, three castles, six educational facilities after Addis hospital ratio is 1:95,500 compared churches and the largest salt market Ababa, the city has a growing to the average 1:176,600 for major in Ethiopia. knowledge hub. This is a source of cities in Ethiopia. Electricity direct economic opportunity as well usage in the city has dramatically As the capital of the Tigray region as capacity for the region. Mekele increased in recent years (from in the north of the country, Mekele is home to many higher education 5% in 2007 to 40% now used for is the largest city in northern institutions such as Mekele cooking) (Cities Alliance, 2015). Ethiopia and the second most

Figure 15: Tigraian people’s liberation monument. Figure 14: View of Mekele Credit: doctigray.wordpress.com

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Mekele in numbers

% 93% 66.8% 6.2 Population growth rate Citizenship Voters in 2005 election Net school enrolment rate age 4-6 1994-2007

69 SMEs % per 1000 people 2000 - 2006 40 Economy Youth unemployment rate

$233 $73 23.5 municipal employees/1000 residents Per capita Per capita revenue Governance expenditure in 2006 in 2006

40% Households have % two to three power % % 3.5 interruption / week 85 25 City area relative to Services Paved roads Leakage of water pipelines informal settlements

Households using electricity for cooking % 2007 5 8 - fold growth in eight years 2015 % Environment 40

Figure 16: Mekele Infographic

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The city is strategically located floriculture, and cattle attractive informal settlements remains high. close to various resources and is business opportunities too. Many areas lack reliable sewerage, connected to other parts of the water and electricity services. country and to an international As a key regional capital in Households still rely on other shipping port in neighbouring Ethiopia’s growth and development fuels for their energy needs and Eretria. The city’s economy relies plan, Mekele has implemented inadequate waste management and on wholesale and retail trade, land use and strategic plans and is sewerage is contributing to severe with growing investment in the experiencing economic activity with health and environmental issues. construction and service industries. many medium to small enterprises. A critical water services shortage A rich source of limestone from the The city has a relatively high per exists in the city with an overall surrounding region also supplies a capita revenue but not as many network coverage of 67%, though number of cement factories in the employees per capita as compared a quarter of all network water is city. Ethiopia’s principal cement with Dire Dawa. Mekele has lost to leakage and challenges over factory is located in the city, expanded in land-take, by 350ha payments for services (of those along with steel industries. The in 2013 (from 540ha). However serviced, 30% are not billed and favourable climatic conditions and despite steady economic growth, 25% do not pay). land availability make horticulture, unemployment and the proportion of

Figure 17: Street in Mekele Image 9: Mekele from above

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What is shaping the city?

New growth areas on the edge of Strategic location and the Mekele legacy of peace The federal Ministry of Industry is Mekele has been a vibrant market steadily improving and the public joining hands with private investors town since the 13th century thanks is now becoming more involved. to establish special zones for to its strategic position along key New citizen groups are emerging economic development outside the trade routes linking inland regions to take ownership over their own city boundaries. These zones are with the commercial ports on the development. The contemporary being set aside for economic activity, Red Sea in Eritrea. Salt has been city is building on its historical industry, and housing outside the traded in Mekele for centuries: it trade roots and is now the capital current city and as a result are outside once held the largest salt market for cement and steel production the administrative responsibility in Ethiopia. Conflict in the recent in the region. The city is home to of Mekele. These zones are vast in past has shaped the development the second busiest international size compared with the current city of Mekele and the Tigray region airport in Ethiopia, an international area. Key industries such as textile generally, limiting business railway under construction and manufacturing are being attracted to the opportunities and affecting good roads connect the city to area. Increasing manufacturing in the government investment in the city. various parts of the country. city is increasing the wealth of the city The current peace with Eritrea has These good transport connections and is providing much-needed jobs. attracted an increase in domestic have helped Mekele become a The city is not planning for new growth and foreign investment. thriving business hub supported in industry and population, raising with significant human resource concerns over the resilience of the Urban management improvements capacity and many educational city’s water supply, waste management are being implemented, including institutions in the city. operations, and supply of affordable the recent Mekele Structural Plan housing. The city may become (2014), which sets out clear goals responsible for new growth areas in the and strategies as well as a spatial future. It is important for plans to be analysis. Service provision is also in place to ensure it has the capacity to improving. Public consultation service these new areas. and community engagement is

Figure 18: Street market in Mekele. Figure 19: New industry Credit: BBC World Service/Flickr on the outskirts of Mekele

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Importance of geography and High demand for basic environmental management services Mekele’s geography has influenced The city’s economic growth has Waste management is a particular its past and will continue to shape been steady in recent years but concern. The city lacks a sewerage its future. Mekele is located in the unemployment remains high. system. This situation is leading to geologically active Rift Valley Special economic zones are severe health and environmental in temperate highlands at 2000m providing some employment but are issues for the city and threatens the above sea level. The city lies within also attracting even more people to economic and environmental future a tropical savannah climatic zone, move to Mekele, so the net impact of Mekele. For example, inadequate meaning average temperatures are on overall unemployment is not as waste management systems in the always above 18°C and average significant. city leave its water supply at risk amount of rainfall (just over of pollution. Inappropriate waste 700mm/year). The city is exposed The lack of basic infrastructure disposal, such as Household waste to natural hazards such as flooding, remains a key issue shaping Mekele. being burned in open pits, is also droughts and earthquakes. Mekele’s Housing is a significant issue believed to be affecting the city’s air future will be defined by its ability and the proportion of informal quality (Cities Alliance, 2016a). to manage scarce natural resources. settlements remains high. Electricity The city accesses its water from is available to the majority of finite underground aquifers and, inhabitants but is both unaffordable as mentioned previously, these are and unreliable. Households continue not adequate for the city’s needs. to rely on other fuels for their Residents in the city are linking an energy needs. Unreliable energy increase in high winds in the city to also threatens economic growth in deforestation, which is also leading Ethiopia, as a study of residential to soil erosion. Air pollution is also energy consumption and GDP an increasing concern with the rise between 1970 and 2011 has shown of industrial investment in the area. (Guta et al. 2015).

Figure 20: Services under construction in Mekele Figure 21: Messebo Cement Factory, Mekele Image credit: www.atec-ltd.com

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Key Themes

Conflict with Eritrea Lack of consultation in Sense of ownership The conflict with Eritrea that planning Despite the relatively recent conflict lasted until 2000 disrupted the Insufficient consultation in planning and lack of participation, there is local population and social – citizen groups are present but no legacy of colonialism and so the cohesion. relatively new. population should be more naturally engaged and still have a sense of ownership. Citizenship

Impact of conflicts Business hub Opportunities to develop The conflict with Eritrea The city is a centre of trade and industries also meant that the region industry with proximity to Port There are many opportunities with underperformed economically. Sudan, the international airport local industry (e.g. steel & cement) and presence of medium and large and notably the Mekele-Awash industries. railway that will bring economic Economy development.

Clear governance structure Good land use planning Implementation issues As the capital of the region, Good policy is in place including a Implementation of urban and governance is clear with recent city structural plan including strategic plans is proving difficult. decentralised power. future land use maps, and a detailed neighbourhood development plan for the Gergembes Development.

Governance

Good social services Lack of civic infrastructure Waste management The city has good healthcare Inadequate sewerage system, Waste management is a key issue: and education with better than unreliable energy and water households burn or bury their waste average population-to-hospital (groundwater) supply is under threat. in their compound. The city also ratio and many higher education lacks liquid waste disposal systems. facilities such as Mekele Services University.

Lack of ecosystem Industrial pollution Lack of alternate water sources protection Industrial pollution from large The acquifer is a good water source City expansion and lack of factories is reducing air quality. but the city supply is entirely ecosystem protection has led Indoor air pollution in households dependent on these underground to loss of green space within is a problem in the city with wood, sources. During the dry season, the the city and deforestation in dung and charcoal still used as fuels. water supply is rationed on a shift the surroundings. In new plans basis. (e.g. Gergembes) no functional Environment recreation space has been provided for.

20 SABA Dimensional Stone Plant 100 km. Limestone, granite, marble, slate, silica, sand, greenstone mines

Axum World Heritage Site 240 km Sheba Tannery 40 km Rock-hewn churches

Projected railway line to Shire 382 km

River Elala

Messebo Cement Factory Built between 1997 and 1999, this + Messfin Industrial Engineering is northern Ethiopia’s principal Headquarters of the leading cement production facility with a equipment manufacturing capacity of 900,000 tonnes. company in East Africa.

Abreha Castle Hotel Enda Eyesus A 19th century stone castle on a Major escarpment that is a physical hill overlooking the city, now a barrier to growth of the city. Economic Development tourist hotel. + Zone Mekelle University Established in 1993 originally as the Arid Zone MAA Garment and Textiles Agricultural College, and the result of a merger Established in 2005, this factory has + high-tech machinery and employs of Mekelle Business College and Mekelle University College. The 31,000 student intake 1,500 workers of which 90% are forms 10% of Mekele's population. Mekelle University, women. It exports knitted garments to Arid Campus Europe and U.S. Most of the University’s colleges and institutes located here. Vineyard 10 floriculture businesspeople + developing a vineyard and wineries. International Airport Currently serves domestic passenger Gergembes Development Site flights and international cargo. Cold A 123ha development of mainly storage facility for flowers, fruit, single-family residences surrounded vegetables and meat. Mekelle Institute of by agricultural and grazing land. Technology

The railway development Aynalem Well Fields Proposed development under national The source of Mekelle GTP, first phase 2010-2015. Expected City’s water supply. to play a significant role in the city's Salt Lands 2.5km economic development. Djibouti Port 775 km Massawa Port 300 km 0 1 2 3 km

21 SABA Dimensional Stone Plant 100 km. Limestone, granite, marble, slate, silica, sand, greenstone mines

Axum World Heritage Site 240 km Sheba Tannery 40 km Rock-hewn churches

Projected railway line to Shire 382 km

River Elala

Figure 22: Map of Mekele 22 Future Proofing Cities | Regional Cities in Ethiopia

Summary of environmental risks Three dimensions of environmental risk

Mekele’s main threat at present is to its water system. Other areas Climatic risk of concern are drought, flooding, The impact of climatic events on water contamination and degrading urban populations, infrastructure air quality. and economies

The key risk to Mekele is its water system, given the city’s total dependence on underground sources and current lack of coverage. With the arrival of more heavy industry the potential risk to the water system and air quality, caused by fresh water Geophysical risk contamination degradation of raw materials, will increase. These risks are exacerbated by The impact of geophysical events on urban populations, infrastructure industrial emissions and water contamination and economies from effluents. In addition, environmental regulations are poorly enforced, enabling industries to extract some resources without paying for them. Other threats may increase but are likely to be mitigated by the city. These include fuel scarcity (electricity provision) and disease risks (health improvements) in the city. These include seismic risk is an underlying threat and should not be overlooked. More attention needs to be given to appropriate building codes and enforcement of building regulations.

Biological and natural resource risk The impact of scarce or degraded natural resources on urban populations and economies

23 Future Proofing Cities | Regional Cities in Ethiopia

Types of threat or hazard, with current and estimated future risk rating

Extreme Storm Wildfire Drought Flood temperature There is some seasonal Mekele already has reasonably No evidence of current or No evidence of current or The country is currently flooding due to the lack of high temperatures, with a future threat future threat facing a severe drought, and hot, arid or semi-arid steppe Mekele is already running dry proper drainage network. climate and an average annual of certain water sources. Local environmental The city and area have had degradation including loss of temperature of 19.1 C. Future ° recurring drought every 2 to riverside vegetation and low climate change projections for 3 years. Persistent drought levels of unpaved areas in the the city are yet to be located. has reduced groundwater city hamper flood protection. levels, and climate change is expected to worsen droughts.

Mass Earthquake movement

Mekele is in one of the most Potential risk triggered by seismically active zones in the earthquake but not actualised country, with a 4.6 magnitude yet. earthquake in 2013. Poor infrastructure maintenance and inadequate disaster response policy and building codes increase risk to life and property due to earthquakes.

Crop disease, Disease or Air quality Contamination infestation or failure of Fuel scarcity degradation or depletion of fresh water failure livestock systems As more industries are 67% of the city is covered No evidence of current or No evidence of current or Supply chain diversity has attracted to the city, existing by piped water connections, future threat future threat improved. The proportion of air pollution concerns are and the city rations water. households using electricity expected to worsen. Natural Persistent drought has reduced increased from 5% to 40% factors such as the low groundwater levels which between 2007 and 2011. tree coverage increase dust is expected to worsen water However, a large majority of in the air. Minimal green availability. households still use wood and space and smoke-generating charcoal as primary energy fuels are other contributing sources. factors. Soil Mineral Raw materials Loss of Vector-borne contamination depletion degradation or biodiversity disease and erosion scarcity The city is in a hilly area, Increased investment in Lax mining regulations and Deforestation and reduction Communicable diseases, and soil erosion is already a limestone, marble, granite, enforcement, particularly of green space indicates though largely preventable, concern. Poor waste water and other deposits discovered pertaining to cement factories loss of biodiversity. Poor caused by dense housing disposal practices and land near Mekele will increase in Mekele increase the risk of environmental policy conditions and lack of vector management practices pressure on mineral resources raw material scarcity in the enforcement, inadequate control, are major health increase future risk for soil in the future. future. planning controls, and threats to the city. contamination and erosion. poor ecosystem protection contribute to further loss of biodiversity.

Water-borne Air-borne disease disease Legend Poor sanitation systems, Dense housing combined with Current Estimated dense housing conditions and poor health education and risk future risk frequent seasonal flooding poverty increase the risk of make Mekele highly prone to air-borne diseases. Low water-borne diseases. Medium

High

24 Future Proofing Cities | Regional Cities in Ethiopia

Future challenges

Industrial growth in Mekele is likely to increase environmental challenges for the fragile water system in Mekele and cause increased air pollution.

Industrial growth With abundant mineral resources The focus on industrial development nearby, the city is likely to see is also increasing air and water growth in a number of extractive pollution, which is an issue city and agro-processing industries. stakeholders have highlighted as In line with national ambitions, part of the Cities Alliance – Rapid Mekele is already seeing substantial City Resilience Assessment process industrial activity: a cement, steel, carried out in 2016. Industrial garment and textile factories are emissions, mainly from the city’s being developed. The industrial cement factory, are reducing air manufacturing investment in Mekele quality in the city. Combined with is generating jobs, increasing the impacts of deforestation that no economic output and improving longer protects the city from high livelihoods of people in Mekele. winds, this is leading to respiratory However the types of skills required and other health problems in the cannot always be found locally. This city. Air quality regulations are means that the net impact on local in place to help control these, but unemployment may not be as great enforcement is a challenge (Cities as projected. Alliance, 2016a and Amdework pers. comm., 2016).

Figure 23: Cement factory in Mekele Credit: Dinesh_pandya_2014/tripadvisor 25 Future Proofing Cities | Regional Cities in Ethiopia

A water system under threat Geophysical risks Mekele’s only supply of potable Mekele is in the Rift Valley, a (and non-potable) water comes prominent seismic zone that from the Aynalem underground stretches through most of Eastern well-fields to the south of the Africa. The United Nations city. Due to chronic drought, Office for the Coordination of over extraction, and threat of Humanitarian Affairs (UN-OCHA, contamination, this source of water 2007) indicates that the earthquake is under serious threat. Water in intensity in Mekele is likely to Mekele is being contaminated from be “very strong” to “destructive” inadequate solid and liquid waste based on the Modified Mercalli management and the absence of a Scale (MM), which describes the proper sewerage system. The city is effects of an earthquake on the facing an increasingly severe water surface of the earth and integrates crisis, producing less than half the numerous parameters such as amount its residents consume each ground acceleration, duration day (MCI, n.d.). With a projected of an earthquake, and subsoil significant increase in demand from effects. It also includes historical new industry and population growth, earthquake reports. Landslides are the issue needs serious consideration also a concern for Mekele, given its to avoid continued over-extraction topography. These are even more beyond the point of safe recovery. likely to occur with widespread Climate change is likely to intensify and on-going deforestation. The the underlying threat to the water city needs to apply and enforce system caused by changes in rainfall appropriate design codes. patterns that influence groundwater recharge rates.

Yemen Zones indicate a 20% Eritrea probability that the intensity indicated will be exceeded in a 50 year period Earthquake Intensity Sudan Modified Mercalli Scale Mekele Degree VI / Strong Degree VII / Very Strong Degree VIII / Destructive Djibouti Gulf of Aden

Dire Dawa Somalia

Ethiopia

South Sudan

Figure 25: Earthquake risk in Africa. Figure 24: Construction standards Based on UN-OCHA 2007 Risk Map in Africa in Mekele

Uganda Kenya Future Proofing Cities | Regional Cities in Ethiopia

Dire Dawa

Dire Dawa is a relatively new city set among % camel grazing plains, and is well connected 92 nationally and internationally for exports. However it will need to overcome significant challenges arising from slum growth and poverty. of roads in Dire Dawa are paved

Known as the ‘Queen of the Desert’, (CSA, 2013) although it is estimated the city and levy taxes on incomes Dire Dawa is a young urban centre to accommodate up to 395,000 from agricultural activities in the by Ethiopian standards that grew people within the greater city city. The City is responsible for around commercial export trade. boundaries (Cities Alliance, 2016b). water and sewerage services, land Located at the foot of the Harrarghe The city is located in the east of the development and management and Highlands (famous for the Harar country along the Dechatu River. sanitation. Ethnic groups in the area coffee), nomadic Somali favoured It covers an altitude from 950 to include the Oromo (45%), Somali the location for its excellent camel 1250m above sea level and has a (25%), Amhara (23%), Gurage grazing lands. The extension of the warm and dry climate with relatively (3%), and Harari (1%). It also has a railway from the coast of Djibouti low precipitation. The city enjoys a number of Greek, Armenian, French brought about the establishment of unique status as the only ‘chartered and Arab inhabitants, a sign of its the settlement in 1902. The city is city’ in the country outside of Addis rich historic international trading home to significant historic sites, Ababa, owing to persisting conflict roots and cultural diversity. The such as pre-historic cave paintings between Somalia and Oromia city’s population is growing at an and a mix of Renaissance French Regions and the rich ethnic diversity average rate relative to the rest of architecture with Arabian and of its inhabitants. As a chartered city Ethiopia (around 3%). medieval Ethiopian influences too. Dire Dawa reports directly to the federal government and is able to set Today, Dire Dawa is one of the and collect land use fees, royalties principal cities in Ethiopia, with an for the use of forest resources in urban population of 285,000 in 2016

Figure 26: Dire Dawa Market Figure 27: Neighbourhood in Dire Dawa Credit: A.Davey/Flickr Credit: Francisco Anzola/Flickr

27 Dire Dawa Future Proofing Cities | Regional Cities in Ethiopia

Dire Dawa in numbers

% 92% 27% 2.3 Population growth rate Citizenship Voters in 2005 election Net School enrolment rate age 4-6 1994-2007

2.7 SMEs % per 1000 people 2000 - 2006 33 Economy Youth unemployment rate $530 $661 35.2 municipal employees/1000 residents Per capita Per capita revenue Governance expenditure in 2006 in 2006

% 53% Households have two to three power 5.5 interruptions / week % 92 City area relative to Services Paved roads informal settlements 48% Households still using charcoal for cooking Environment

Figure 28: Dire Dawa infographic

28 Future Proofing Cities | Regional Cities in Ethiopia

The city continues to play a cement industries in particular are Dire Dawa is an important significant role within Ethiopia expected to grow in the near future. commercial and transportation hub thanks to its location along a The city has great growth potential, with wide tree-lined streets and a principal export corridor that links given its proximity to multiple modern urban plan. The city has the country to the rapidly expanding ports in Djibouti, Somaliland attempted to deal with persistent Djibouti Port. The city has an and Somalia, and the productive challenges such as informal international airport and an inter-city Harrarghe Highlands. As well as settlements, although these have bus service. The new Addis Ababa- being ripe for regional economic continued to be a problem as Djibouti Railway started operating growth, Ethiopia’s expanding discussed further below. It has a in October 2015, providing a international trade will mean the relatively high number of municipal revitalised link between Dire Dawa city is likely to become a trade hub employees per capita, although to Port Djibouti. The majority of for the entire country. The National decentralisation has reduced its roads in the city are paved (92%), Government has identified Dire importance nationally. The city although local road access outside Dawa as an industrial zone, which faces significant challenges with the city is still poor. Basic services will likely attract further spin-off high levels of poverty, proportion within the city are stretched and investment. Despite its promising of informal settlements and a huge there is a critical shortage of economic future, recent events in backlog in housing, but it has the housing and water supply. The city Dire Dawa have proved that growth potential for increased economic has a high rate of poverty – 35% is not guaranteed. These include growth that will bring the city compared to 14% in the Tigray the reduction in contraband trade, additional revenue. Combined with regions – according to statistics privatisation of textile factories economic growth, improvements in from 2011. and the temporary closure of local land use management and local the major railway connection to transport connections will help the Despite this, Dire Dawa has good Djibouti. But ensuring permanent city take advantage of these future economic growth prospects. The city and uninterrupted access to the opportunities. has several market centres as well port in Djibouti will secure a bright as cement, food, textile and steel economic future for the city. manufacturing plants. Textile and

Figure 30: Dire Dawa City view Figure 29: Industry in Dire Dawa Credit: Diretube.com

29 Future Proofing Cities | Regional Cities in Ethiopia

What is shaping the city?

High levels of urban poverty Dire Dawa has one of the highest efforts have been made to legalise other regional capitals such as poverty rates in the country, at informal settlements and land Mekele, Dire Dawa’s revenue per 35% according to 2011 statistics, management is highlighted as a capita is higher than the national compared with only 14% in the government priority. Dire Dawa has average and has more municipal Tigray region. The poverty rate a moderate population growth rate at employees per capita than most has also increased 6% while it is present (3%) and unemployment is Ethiopia cities. declining in all other states. Dire also moderate. Dawa’s low performance is likely Dire Dawa is also making strides associated with a decline in both Advances in urban toward regularising its informal state (-34%) and municipal (-7%) management settlements. Early attempts have revenues triggered through a been successful, however just five reduction in contraband trade, the Dire Dawa is one of only two years after the regularisation the privatisation of the textile industry Ethiopian cities where the land number of informal settlements (and subsequent cuts to workers) area within the ‘Urban Land had returned to previous levels and the temporary closure in the Lease Holding System’ – a system (MUDHCo & ECSU, 2015), Ethiopia-Djibouti railway services. allowing the transaction of land use an indication that the land use It is also suggested that regional rights in a market-based economic management system needs improved decentralisation across the country system – is greater than the land mechanisms for dealing with the has reduced the demand for public area under a non-lease arrangement. very high demand for land. The City administrative services typically The city was one of the first to also has to co-ordinate complex provided from Dire Dawa (World implement the system. It is a major planning issues and implementing Bank & CA, 2015). commercial and industrial centre actions with two neighbouring where land for commercial and Regions – Somalia and Oromia. Poverty in informal settlements is a manufacturing purposes can only significant and consistent challenge be obtained under the lease system. for the city government. However, While having a lower budget than

Figure 31: Street in Dire Dawa Figure 32: Urban development in Dire Dawa

30 Future Proofing Cities | Regional Cities in Ethiopia

The need for housing Despite the advances in land management there is room for improvement in housing, household electricity connections and environmental management. In 2008 the housing supply backlog was 24,000 units, with an annual demand growth of 2,900 units (UN- HABITAT, 2008). Several factors are also contributing to the growing backlog, including high construction costs (nationally) and an inability to recoup these costs with rental income.

Figure 33: Informal development in Dire Dawa 31 Future Proofing Cities | Regional Cities in Ethiopia

Key Themes

High poverty Lack of consultation in High ethnic diversity The city has one of the highest planning Dire Dawa has great ethnic proportions of land area for Planning participation is low over two diversity with 45% Oromo, 25% informal settlements, as well as years only two public meetings were Somali, 23% Amhara and 3% a very high poverty index that is held on the prioritization of capital Gurage peoples. Historical tension increasing (2011 figures). projects and the Capital Investment between ethnic groups has existed Plan (CIP). in the past. Citizenship

Challenges to local economy Good economic growth High informality in economy Dire Dawa has recently faced prospects Informality is raised as a key challenging economic events: There are many private cement, challenge by stakeholders – exchange rate and tax-related food, textile, and steel manufacturing there are still a large number of reforms leading to a reduction in plants in the city and the textile and informal settlements, as well as contraband trade -with major effects cement industries are expected to unemployment levels. on employment-, privatisation grow. Proximity to ports in Djibouti, of a large textile factor leading Somaliland and Somalia, and the to worker retrenchments, and fertile Harrarghe Highlands make it temporary closure of the Ethio- well positioned for regional economic Djibouti Railway Transport Service. growth. Economy

Land use planning Implementation of land use Status as chartered city Land management is highlighted as plans Dire Dawa enjoys the status of a a key priority for stakeholders – for Attempts to regularise informal “chartered city” , which means example there are incompatible settlements by government were that, like Addis it is under Federal land use developments such as temporarily successful. The land legislation. It therefore has full allocation of prime land along the use management systems lack autonomy over urban land tariff major arterial roads to inappropriate fundamental changes due to regulations. functions, or riverside zones being inefficiencies in dealing with land developed. demand, limited co-ordination and lack of action due to the city’s Governance location between two regional states.

Poor water supply Lack of housing Poor road linkages Water provision to households is There is a significant lack of housing. Despite good regional still limited. Most only receive As well as meeting this challenge, connections, local road access and water once a day. There is an land management practices will likely links to different parts of the city absence of domestic waste need radical reform in order to avoid are poor. Social services in the city treatment. The city is also under growing informal settlements and are also scarce. stress in terms of public health urban sprawl. provision. Services

Flooding Alternate energy sources Abundant water sources Flooding is a key threat for Deforestation is a key issue for Unlike Mekele, the groundwater Dire Dawa, with riversides still Dire Dawa, with charcoal use still supply is abundant, although vulnerable. Flooding is driven by a high. Alternative energy sources are rainfall has been unpredictable decrease in upland forest cover and required. recently. This is linked to climate unplanned expansion into urbanised change. areas.

Environment

32 Shinile 4 km

River Dechatu The city’s main river from Ahmar Mountains to Awash River. Floods periodically during the June-September rainy season. At least 200 killed in the 2006 flood event.

International airport

Port Djibouti 313 km Dire Dawa University Established in 2006 with 754 students as one of 13 new universities in the country.

Industrial Area

Addis Ababa 515 km

Cotton manufacturing factory

Route 10a The singular connecting road to the Dry river bed major Route 10 to the south and Awash/Adama to the west.

Hararghe Highlands

Railway Line National Cement Factory

0 1 2 3 km

33 Shinile 4 km

River Dechatu The city’s main river from Ahmar Mountains to Awash River. Floods periodically during the June-September rainy season. At least 200 killed in the 2006 flood event.

International airport

Port Djibouti 313 km Dire Dawa University Established in 2006 with 754 students as one of 13 new universities in the country.

Industrial Area

Addis Ababa 515 km

Cotton manufacturing factory

Route 10a The singular connecting road to the Dry river bed major Route 10 to the south and Awash/Adama to the west.

Hararghe Highlands

Railway Line National Cement Factory

Figure 34: Map of Dire Dawa 34 Future Proofing Cities | Regional Cities in Ethiopia

Summary of environmental risks Three dimensions of environmental risk

The main threats for Dire Dawa at present are extreme temperature, Climatic risk drought and water contamination. The impact of climatic events on urban populations, infrastructure and economies Dire Dawa is located very close to a seismic fault line in a semi-arid area of the country where there is little rainfall. The region is currently experiencing a drought. With future climate change anticipated, and driven by the depletion of ground water resources, these risks will increase. Poor design and construction in the city will continue to Geophysical risk contribute to the lack of water retention, unless better drainage management is The impact of geophysical events on urban populations, infrastructure implemented. and economies As Dire Dawa could potentially grow its mineral industries, the depletion of raw materials and minerals may become a risk.

Biological and natural resource risk The impact of scarce or degraded natural resources on urban populations and economies

35 Future Proofing Cities | Regional Cities in Ethiopia

Types of threat or hazard, with current and estimated future risk rating Extreme temperature Storm Wildfire Drought Flood

Dire Dawa has a hot and No evidence of current or No evidence of current or Drought is a common Rivers near the city flood dry climate with an average future threat future threat problem in Dire Dawa. The seasonally, and the impact of temperature of 24.6°C. frequency is expected to flooding is heightened due to Climate change models increase due to the impact of the proximity of settlements predict a 3C increase in climate change. Groundwater near rivers, removal of average annual temperature by levels have been depleted in protective vegetation from 2090. Poor housing conditions the area around the city due to river banks, and construction and lack of green space natural causes and improper in lowlands. In the last few exacerbate the effect of high planning and construction years, the city has made efforts temperatures. practices. towards flood resilience.

Mass Earthquake movement

While the city has not No evidence of current or experienced any recent future threat earthquakes, it is in a medium- risk seismic zone and located near a major fault line. Poor quality infrastructure and poor disaster response policy may cause increased damage to life and property in case of an earthquake. Contamination Crop disease, Disease or failure Air quality or depletion of infestation or of livestock Fuel scarcity degradation fresh water failure systems Air quality is cited as one of The inadequacy of water No evidence of current or No evidence of current or Approximately 80% of the city’s main environmental sources is compounded by future threat future threat households use charcoal challenges. In spite of ground water contamination and wood for cooking. In mitigation measures, industrial caused by the lack of effective the absence of alternative pollution is degrading air wastewater disposal and fuels, the use of charcoal and quality. The lack of green treatment systems. wood is expected to lead to space and use of smoke- deforestation. generating energy sources in households worsens air quality.

Soil Mineral Raw materials Loss of Vector-borne contamination degradation or biodiversity and erosion depletion scarcity disease

Dire Dawa is in a region with Mineral deposits have been While extraction of mineral Reduction of green space and Dire Dawa is in a malaria- sandy soil that is already discovered around Dire Dawa, deposits near Dire Dire deforestation suggests a loss prone region, and epidemic- prone to erosion. Overgrazing, and the area is considered does not occur on a large of biodiversity. Deforestation like conditions have broken deforestation, and poor land attractive for investment in scale, increased investment is expected to increase with out during floods. While management policies increase mining. in mining may lead to raw population growth, worsening poor housing conditions and the risk of soil contamination material scarcity if not the loss of biodiversity. poor vector control increase and erosion. managed properly risk, action taken by health personnel has considerably improved the situation.

Water-borne Air-borne disease disease Legend

Dense housing conditions Dense housing conditions Current Estimated with poor access to sanitation combined with poor health risk future risk combined with frequent infrastructure increases the flooding increase the risk of risks of epidemics due to air- Low water-borne diseases. borne diseases. Medium

High

36 Future Proofing Cities | Regional Cities in Ethiopia

Future challenges

In addition to environmental risks, continued improvement to land management systems are required to deal with a rapidly growing population.

Informal settlements and land management Informal settlements have become later illegal houses continued to and informality have been solved. a key concern in Dire Dawa due to emerge, demonstrating the demand Land management and housing the scarcity of housing in planned for housing is not being addressed systems need improved service areas. This is resulting in land within the present land management delivery models to cope with the being occupied and developed system. This persistence of poor large demand. informally in marginal areas, housing conditions in unplanned such as in flood plains. In 2006, areas is increasing the city’s a flood claimed the lives of over environmental risk to a number of Ethnic diversity two hundred people in the city. threats or hazards such as: extreme In response the city has focused temperatures; water, air, and vector- Dire Dawa has great ethnic diversity efforts on improving the quality borne diseases; and natural hazards with 45% Oromo, 25% Somali, of housing through legalising land such as flooding and earthquakes). 23% Amhara and 3% Gurage rights and in carrying out regular Huge efforts have been made people. While this diversity is a disaster risk reduction activities. to address the issue of informal significant advantage there has been In the same year the city made a settlements. Dealing with these an historical tension between ethnic significant effort to legalise housing risks will require further investment, groups in Dire Dawa in the past. in informal settlements, issuing but the pressure is unlikely to be 13,000 new title deeds. A few years released until the issues of housing

Figure 35: Informal housing in Dire Dawa 37 Future Proofing Cities | Regional Cities in Ethiopia

Earthquakes Water security Dire Dawa is located very near Despite the apparent availability for the city which may impact the to a major fault line in the Rift of ground water, Dire Dawa has overall capacity for groundwater Valley. The science indicates that almost half the annual rainfall of recharge in the city. Finally, ageing there is a clear risk of earthquakes Addis Ababa – 590mm compared and inadequate water infrastructure and landslides in Dire Dawa. The with 1200mm. The city has a high is leading to pipeline blockages and city needs to develop and/or apply water table and sandy soil. The bursts caused by encrustation. appropriate design codes and ensure combination of these two factors that these are enforced. The city mean that in Dire Dawa water needs to work with communities to infiltrates into the ground very ensure informal settlements are also quickly and is very vulnerable building safely and are aware of the to pollution. With widespread risks. informal settlements and an absence of domestic waste treatment and sanitation systems, water contamination should be a serious concern for Dire Dawa. In addition, current urban expansion is occurring toward sources of ground water

Figure 36: Water vendors in Mekele 38 Future Proofing Cities | Regional Cities in Ethiopia

Final Thoughts

Drivers of city growth are likely to be regional connectivity and reliable energy. Challenges of land management, local connectivity, informal housing, and environmental protection will need to be overcome to achieve balanced development.

Location and role of the city Cities in Ethiopia have historically status as it does not administer a resources to be used effectively at developed based on favourable wider region and reports directly both the federal and city level. For geographic position, easy access to the federal government. Its Dire Dawa this means understanding to natural resources, and ease of administrative function has been its role within the economic corridor movement (e.g. along a river) – all determined through politics as it between Addis Ababa and Djibouti of which relate to location. Ethiopia lies strategically between the states and building on its strengths as a has decided to adopt a national of Somali and Oromia. This nuance charter city with strong strategic planning approach that promotes has led to governance complexities location, good urban management, regional cities. Two key defining in tackling cross-boundaries issues diverse population, and human features of regional cities in Ethiopia including illegal land transactions resource. Because of these unique are: location and connection to and environmental management. features both Mekele and Dire Dawa a hinterland. Administratively, will continue to thrive as a result of Planners should be clear on what this planning approach enables their strategic locations. role the city is playing within the cities such as Mekele to act as a wider national urban system. Having regional capital within a wider this clear vision can allow limited state. Dire Dawa has unique

Figure 37: Mekele commercial street Credit: Raul Soler / Flickr 39 Future Proofing Cities | Regional Cities in Ethiopia

Investing in growth Both Mekele and Dire Dawa Continued investment is needed in implementing cadastral mapping struggle with youth unemployment physical infrastructure. Investment and increasing the planning capacity which is a national challenge. To in transport corridors will connect could have the most significant capitalised on the demographic Mekele to other important cities impact on a range of issues the city dividend, cities should develop and ports, increasing its ability is facing. targeted and city-specific economic to trade primary goods and carry development plans that consider key out manufacturing. Cities and the growth sectors and development federal government also need to needs and that are aligned with invest in improving the regional labour strategies. Training (hinterland) infrastructure, such as programmes and systems should transport networks (e.g. road and be developed in collaboration with rail) to reduce transport times and educational institutions to meet the costs to other locations in the Tigray anticipated skills demand, at the region, and to enable dispersed right time. business growth. In Dire Dawa, Figure 38: Dire Dawa Street Market Credit: A.Davey/Flickr

40 Future Proofing Cities | Regional Cities in Ethiopia

Planning for economic growth Ethiopian regional cities can these areas will enhance the city’s be considered so that economic successfully lead inclusive ability to collect much needed land- growth does not threaten the economic growth through planning. based revenues, and also facilitate city’s identity and overall The federal government has made co-ordination of infrastructure competitiveness. progress in delivering land for provision. Space within the economic development in accessible cities needs to be allocated to Mekele and Dire Dawa need and well-connected locations. To accommodate future growth in to invest in environmental manage this process the government infrastructure, housing, and areas for management to safeguard vital has improved land management economic development. resources and secure the long systems and taken steps toward term future of both cities. Finally, devolved governance through Equal focus needs to be given to both cities need to involve their the ‘Urban Land Lease Holding locating future growth areas in areas citizens in the planning process System’ which facilitates access to with adequate natural resources to build collaboration and land for the private sector. Some and management systems in place ownership over plans. challenges remain in implementing to sustain them. Locations should the system, such as a lack of legal be selected based on evidence of frameworks, baseline information environmental risk to minimise (such as cadastral mapping, base the impact on sensitive assets maps and deed titles), physical such as the water table. Evidence tools (computers and software) and suggests that recent development skilled human resource (MUDHCo has negatively impacted on the & ECSU, 2015). Improvements in liveability of the city. This needs to

Figure 39: Street market in Mekele Credit: Indrik Myneur / Flickr

41 Future Proofing Cities | Regional Cities in Ethiopia

Supply of basic infrastructure services

The supply of basic services in health hazard and the potential for need to be reviewed from this Mekele and Dire Dawa needs to water and soil contamination further perspective to ensure that the codes improve, particularly in critical spreads the health risks and damage are appropriately adapted to the areas of water supply, housing, natural resources. risks. electricity provision, waste management and sewerage. A key driver of the local housing Ethiopia is blessed with ample deficit in both Mekele and Dire renewable energy sources such Access to clean safe water is Dawa is the lack of affordable as hydropower, which it is a basic human need. For both housing stock that has resulted in diligently investing in. Cities Mekele and Dire Dawa balancing widespread informal settlements, are nevertheless plagued by the water demand for domestic, as discussed previously. Current transmission issues resulting in commercial and industrial use needs building regulations promote extremely poor reliability. This to be addressed urgently. Mekele’s modern construction technologies affects businesses directly, as well groundwater resource is at risk. such as the use of hollow concrete as having an indirect effect on the Increased water demands from blocks, which are largely imported provision of services such as water current population and industrial and expensive. Traditional supply. Reliable and affordable growth will limit growth and technologies, including the use electricity for residences will also investment in the region. Linked to of bamboo, are discouraged. In improve general urban health water supply is the quality of water. seismic areas, building codes and the environment. The main In both Mekele and Dire Dawa are a key factor of resilience, but source of energy for households is inadequate waste management this must be balanced with the predominantly still wood fuel and and the lack of sewerage is the ability to build and repair using charcoal, although electricity is greatest environmental and health proposed technologies, along with increasingly being used. hazard. The situation is a direct affordability. The regulations may

Figure 40: Neighbourhood road, Dire Dawa

42 Low carbon development twenty long-term cross-sector For Ethiopian regional cities the initiatives that can promote low- most significant interventions will Ethiopia has seen rapid economic carbon development in sub-Saharan revolve around heavy industries, growth in recent years with growth African countries (Hogarth et al, the extractive industry and the rates over 10%. Growth has been 2015). Some of these initiatives booming construction industry. driven by sectors such as light have higher applicability to Given the likely future growth of industry and trade, with rapid Ethiopia, as indicated in Figure 41. mining and its high energy use, urbanisation and recent development A full list of these initiatives are using energy efficient processes and of industrial zones. The country included in Appendix A. renewable energy sources will be is still relatively un-urbanised and key for low-carbon growth. With set to continue rapid economic In regional cities and urban areas the fastest growing construction growth. The recent Growth and generally, formalising the charcoal industry in the region, incentivising Transformation Plan II shifts focus industry and promoting efficient low-carbon materials and methods to heavy industries to accompany cooking stoves will be important will also be a big win, as will energy light manufacturing, for which as currently charcoal use is high in efficient processes and technologies the aim is to become the largest households, leading to both indoor in heavy manufacturing, another manufacturer in Africa. These air pollution and deforestation. energy-intensive and growing processes have the potential to Generating on-grid electricity from sector. Targeting these interventions, significantly contribute to carbon renewable power, developing higher Ethiopia has strong prospects for emissions, whilst at the same time density multi-use urban plans and low-carbon development. offer opportunities for low-carbon mass transportation systems are all development. interventions that the country has already made progress in or are not An Overseas Development Institute rated most relevant at this time but (ODI) study analysed economic given their significant low-carbon and environmental factors in sub- development contributions, remain Saharan Africa, and identified key opportunities.

Formalise the Strengthen the use Switch to lower Reduce emissions Increase use of energy charcoal industry, of energy efficient carbon fuel sources from construction efficient processes and promote efficient processes and and renewable materials and and technologies and charcoal kilns and technologies in the energy in the methods clean energy in heavy biomass cook-stoves, extractives sector extractives sector manufacturing and fuel switching

Figure 41: Key initiatives for low-carbon development along regional cities in Ethiopia

43 Appendix

44 A. Low-carbon development initiatives mapping

Building on the in-depth sector analysis, ODI identified 20 long-term Legend Potential for supporting cross-sector transitions (or initiatives) that can be undertaken to promote low-carbon economic low-carbon development in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). To rank and development score these initiatives, they developed a preliminary methodology using a set of four criteria: (1) the level of GHG emissions that they could High avoid; (2) the risk of lock-in that they could avert; (3) their contribution Medium to increased productivity; and (4) their contribution to poverty reduction. These initiatives were scored as having high, medium or low Low potential in promoting low-carbon development. Based on research carried out for this report we have provided a qualitative comparative score based on country specific knowledge.

Cross-sector transitions / initiatives SSA Ethp. Why is it relevant in Ethiopia? What is the opportunity in Ethiopia? Agriculture Ethiopia currently suffers post-harvest losses in agriculture 85% of Ethiopia's population is employed in agriculture, of 30-50% so there is room for improvement in this area. but this primarily occurs in rural areas. However Furthermore, the country aims to enhance its economy partly Reduce demand for regional cities source their food supply from surrounding through increased productivity in agriculture (see the Growth agricultural land by hinterlands and therefore influence and are influenced by and Transformation Plan II). This is likely to stimulate these processes. Urban sprawl is putting pressure on the demand for training, for example in the Agricultural College intensifying production and ecosystems in these hinterlands, and so there can be a in Mekelle. While these opportunities are predominantly rural reducing post-harvest waste tension between urban development and agriculture. For in nature, intensifying agricultural production elsewhere will example surrounding the Gergembes development site in alleviate the tension with agriculture on urban peripheries, and Mekelle is agricultural land. allow densification of urban and peri-urban areas with benefits of economic efficiency Increasing meat demand in cities is likely to increase with Livestock husbandry is low in Ethiopia's cities but an economic development, creating a need to consider livestock Reduce emissions from increasing demand for meat consumption from urban emissions. The Government of Ethiopia's Climate-Resilient livestock residents with growing incomes will have a direct effect and Green Economy Strategy aims to increase poultry's share on livestock emissions. of national meat consumption from 15% to 30% by 2030. These are relevant opportunities, but primarily rural in nature. Urban agriculture has been recognised in the Addis Ababa master plan, and the government has established the While the majority of agriculture occurs in rural areas, Department of Urban Agriculture at both city and sub-city regional cities especially source their food supply from levels. While climate-smart interventions will mostly be surrounding hinterlands, and some urban agriculture Diffuse climate-smart applicable to large-scale agriculture, some benefits will come occurs within the city. This includes vegetable producers from climate-smart urban agriculture. These will likely be agriculture practices in Addis Ababa who have been farming using traditional around food security and improving livelihoods (see Ashebir methods for three decades and other underestimated et al.) as opposed to a significant impact on carbon emissions urban food production that has a role in food security. given the traditional farming methods currently being practiced in these contexts. Forestry Integrate rural land-use Not applicable to secondary cities. N/A planning There is significant deforestation in Ethiopia, and reported in both regional cities studied. Key factors Currently there is little valuation of forest ecosystem services for deforestation include shifting agriculture, livestock Capture the value of forests’ in and around urban areas in Ethiopia. This intervention will production and fuel in drier areas. While predominantly be of great benefit nationally but less so specifically to regional ecosystems services a rural issue, forest ecosystem services are of importance cities. to cities for example upland forests protecting Dire Dawa from flooding.

45 Future Proofing Cities | Regional Cities in Ethiopia

Legend

Energy Formalise the charcoal industry, and promote Charcoal use was reported to still be high in both cities. Switching to more efficient and reliable sources of energy efficient charcoal kilns and 80% of households in Dire Dawa used charcoal or wood will reduce environmental damage, especially deforestation in biomass cook-stoves, and fuel for cooking for example. urban surrounding areas. fuel switching Unreliable energy threatens economic growth in Ethiopia, while reliable and affordable electricity for residences in Ethiopian cities will improve general urban health and the environment. Ethiopia has great potential for renewable energy including hydropower, wind, solar and geothermal. It aims Generate on-grid electricity Cities in Ethiopia are challenged by transmission issues to generate an additional GW over the next decade through from renewable sources with electricity resulting in poor reliability. This affects geothermal alone, and solar plants for over 100MW are being and prevent lock-in of coal businesses as well as the provision of basic services such constructed. There are national strategies to formalise and power as water. manage biomass industries. In May 2015 Ethiopia opened its third wind farm which is the largest in Sub-Saharan Africa at 153MW capacity. With energy demands continuing to increase, there is a continued opportunity for investment in renewables - rated 'medium' as much investment is already occurring. Promote electricity access Very important for rural development, but not applicable N/A from off-grid and mini-grid to secondary cities. systems in rural areas Transport As part of the Friends of Fossil Fuel Subsidy Reform, Ethiopia is committed to phasing out “inefficient fossil Ethiopia has already made progress in removing fossil fuel Remove fossil fuel subsidies fuel subsidies that encourage wasteful consumption”. subsidies. Since the recent subsidy reform, Ethiopia has seen The government has also introduced ethanol blending a decline in kerosene and an increase in the use of electricity for consumption in October 2008 and increased to 10% in 2011. While and biofuels. There is therefore not as big an opportunity it is hard to find exact figures, it appears subsidies for remaining in this country. consumption have been removed. Ethiopia has a very low car ownership rate, at only 3 vehicles per 1000 people in 2007. However due a While important, the opportunity is limited given the very Shift to a low-carbon large influx of cars into the country (thousands per low car ownership in Ethiopia and the fuel initiatives already year according to estimates) Addis Ababa is already implemented: Ethiopia's National Biofuels Policy for example automobile fleet and fuels experiencing serious congestion. Between 2011 and promotes ethanol biofuels for blending with gasoline for 2014 private car ownership has gone up 50% from under transportation. 100,000 to around 150,000 in the capital. Both cities studied have a high proportion of people living in informal settlements, with a demand for While Dire Dawa has implemented land use management housing that challenges land management systems. Due systems, both cities struggle with land demand and urban Implement higher density to shortage of housing in the formal sector, land is being sprawl. Effective urban planning will help maximise provision used in vulnerable marginal areas for example that are multi-use urban plans of basic services, revenue collection and implement low- susceptibel to flooding. However regional cities are set carbon transport designs. to continue to grow with high urbanisation rates across the country. Addis Ababa has set a precedent in Africa with the first light rail network launching in September 2015 and a Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) to come into operation in three years' time, which will also be a first for East Africa. This is important as Promote mass Urbanisation and population growth is occurring rapidly, 60% of the population still walk to their destination. and national plans to attract investment to cities include Promoting similar mass transport options will be a key transportation systems finalising ongoing transportation development. opportunity for low-carbon development in other rapidly developing cities, contributing towards economic development in an equitable way - rated 'medium' as mass transportation already being implemented in Addis Ababa and a future opportunity for regional cities as they grow.

46 Future Proofing Cities | Regional Cities in Ethiopia

Extractives Mining is a significant industry in Ethiopia and the country still has a wealth of unexploited minerals suggesting future growth in this sector. Currently mining Strengthen the use of only comprises 1% of GDP with gold, gemstones and energy efficient processes industrial minerals most important, but mining for gold Given the high energy use in mining activities, these measures and technologies in the and potash amongst others is a key development sector will have significant contribution to carbon emissions. extractives sector for the country. Cement industries exist in both cities studied, and Dire Dawa is an attractive investment area given mineral deposits found there. " Mining is a significant industry in Ethiopia and the country still has a wealth of unexploited minerals suggesting future growth in this sector. Currently mining Given the high energy use in mining activities, these measures Switch to lower carbon only comprises 1% of GDP with gold, gemstones and will have significant contribution to carbon emissions. fuel sources and renewable industrial minerals most important, but mining for gold There is great potential for renewable energy sources in and potash amongst others is a key development sector energy in the extractives Ethiopia some of which are already being harnessed including for the country. sector solar, wind and geothermal. Cement industries exist in both cities studied, and Dire Dawa is an attractive investment area given mineral deposits found there. Ethiopia had a relatively high level of subsidies for fossil fuels in 2013, but since 2011 they have been Remove and avoid subsidies under reform and no longer has subsidies. The country Given the reform that has already occurred to Ethiopia's fuel for fossil fuel production is part of the 'Friends of Fossil Fuel Subsidy Reform' prices, there is less of an opportunity here. that includes Costa Rica, Denmark, Finland and New Zealand. Construction Current building regulations promote modern construction technologies such as the use of hollow concrete blocks, which are largely imported and expensive. However there is therefore Ethiopia's construction sector is set to grow at over 10% an opportunity to ensure the construction materials and in the next ten years, outgrowing other countries in the Reduce emissions from methods are low-carbon too. region. The construction industry is driving current Given the rapid growth of this sector including some very construction materials and investment in cities such as Mekele. large individual projects, this is a key low-carbon growth methods Major construction investments include wind and opportunity. hydropower projects, housing and railways. Evidence suggests that considering embodied carbon in the construction process would greatly add to sustainable construction.

Reduce emissions from With rapidly increasing incomes across Ethiopia, energy National level criteria on low-emission operations that guide buildings operations consumption in buildings is projected to grow. local building codes could be implemented.

Manufacturing Heavy manufacturing is driven by a few multinational Increase use of energy Ethiopia has targeted industrial zones as part of its organisations for industries such as iron or steel production, long-term national growth strategy, and heavy industries efficient processes and special incentives are given for the industrial parks. Given are given special attention in the latest Growth and the policy focus on this sector and its likely future growth, and technologies and Transformation Plan II (GTP II). The sector is growing, along with impact of implementing energy efficient processes clean energy in heavy for example with a number of cement industries in amongst a relatlively small number of actors, this is a key low- Mekele. manufacturing carbon opportunity. Light manufacturing has been key for Ethiopia in recent While there is a shift in focus towards heavy industry in years, featuring in the GTP I. Key industries have GTP II, light industries are still a priority for the economy Drive growth in light included food, beverage, leather, wool and textiles. and expected to continue to grow - therefore are an area of While adding heavy industries to its growth plan, the manufacturing opportunity for low-carbon development - 'medium' rating as country aims to be the light manufacturing leader in light manufacturing is already strong. Africa by 2025. There appears little directive towards low-carbon products at Develop low-carbon Ethiopia is rapidly industrialising including in regional present, but given that industrialisation is in its infancy in the products cities such as Mekele and Dire Dawa. country, there is an opportunity to direct production towards low-carbon products.

47 Future Proofing Cities | Regional Cities in Ethiopia

B. Information mapping

Mekele Dire Dawa Overall We followed a subjective process Citizenship to assess the information that was immediately available for each city. Participation Information was supplied by Cities Social capital Alliance and Future Cities Africa Community awareness and preparedness teams. Arup carried out a global information scan to identify whether Civil rights and justice any gaps could be readily filled Economy with open-source information. We Human capital applied a rating to this information according to quality and availability Institutional environment of data or information on each External macro environment sub-dimension within the revised Industry normative framework. Outputs For Ethiopia overall, information on citizenship, the economy Governance and governance was moderately Enabling environment available although there was a Municipal finance lack of information in specific areas such as representation and Representation and accountability accountability in local governance, Municipal capacity social capital of citizens and the Risk management local enabling environment for effective local governance and Planning economic progress. More broadly, Services information with respect to both city and environmental services was Social services generally lacking in both Mekelle Basic services and Dire Dawa. Economic services Emergency services Environment Protective ecosystem services Regulating ecosystem services Natural resources Cultural ecosystem services Legend

High A substantial amount of information that is sufficiently detailed enough to use in further analysis work Moderate An average amount of information of adequate detail. Information may require interpretation for further analysis work. Additional research is suggested.

Low A limited amount of information, or information of low quality or partially available information. More research is recommended. No data No data was initially supplied by Cities Alliance or Future Cities Africa team. A reasonable amount of time was spent looking for additional open-source information and none was readily available for the city. 48 Future Proofing Cities | Regional Cities in Ethiopia

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