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Copyright by Todd Graham Smith 2015 the Dissertation Committee for Todd Graham Smith Certifies That This Is the Approved Version of the Following Dissertation Copyright by Todd Graham Smith 2015 The Dissertation Committee for Todd Graham Smith certifies that this is the approved version of the following dissertation: Feeding Unrest: Food prices, food security and protest participation in Africa and South Africa Committee: Joshua W. Busby, Supervisor Robert H. Wilson Carolyn Heinrich Michael G. Findley Cullen Hendrix Feeding Unrest: Food prices, food security and protest participation in Africa and South Africa by Todd Graham Smith, B.A., M.P.Aff., J.D. DISSERTATION Presented to the Faculty of the Graduate School of The University of Texas at Austin in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY THE UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS AT AUSTIN August 2015 Dedicated to my parents. Acknowledgments This dissertation would not have been possible without the continued sup- port of my loving parents, Wade and J.C., and my brother and sister-in-law, Toby and Christina. I know that they are all relieved that I am finally finished with school . maybe. I would like to thank my advisor, Josh Busby, for his constant support and guidance. He has been an irreplaceable mentor, not just in the research and writ- ing of this dissertation, but also through constant employment, research and co- authorship, and conference and travel opportunities. Thank you also to all my com- mittee members. Each of them has contributed substantially to my development as a researcher and scholar. Thank you to my terrific and supportive cohort. Ariel, Eli, Alvaro, Roger, Changgui, and even Carlos have all been constant companions and supportive study mates during the past six years. Thank you also to my other classmates, especially Bec and Nisha, for being sounding boards and happy hour buddies. Finally, thank you to Kelty. Although, she only recently came into my life, without her encouragement during the final months of writing I might never have finished this dissertation. I love you, Kelty. v Feeding Unrest: Food prices, food security and protest participation in Africa and South Africa Publication No. Todd Graham Smith, Ph.D. The University of Texas at Austin, 2015 Supervisor: Joshua W. Busby Recent food riots throughout much of Africa and the Middle East in the wake of spikes in international food commodity prices have fueled a renewed aca- demic and popular interest in the long-recognized connection between food prices and social unrest. This dissertation addresses the question how do rising prices and food insecurity contribute to socio-political unrest of all types, rather than focusing on events labeled food riots in the popular media. The dissertation addresses this question at the macro and the micro levels. It begins with a macro-level analysis of changing consumer food price indices and the occurrence of unrest in 40 African countries. It then proceeds to a case study of protest of in South Africa. This case study first reviews the history of political protest in South Africa and the context of a rash of protests that have plagued South Africa over the past decade focusing on local government service delivery. Next a careful examination of trends of eco- nomic inequality and food spending in South Africa provides an understanding of the structural factors contributing to relative deprivation in South Africa. Finally, vi the results of an original survey conducted in a service delivery protest hotspot in Cape Town, reveals that food insecurity is a significant determinant of individual protest participation. These macro and micro level studies lead to the conclusion that food insecurity and rising food prices contribute to increased relative depriva- tion and predisposition to political protest at the individual level and, consequently, to increased incidence of socio-political unrest. vii Table of Contents Acknowledgments v Abstract vi List of Tables xii List of Figures xiv Chapter 1. Introduction 1 1.1 Research Questions . .4 1.2 Case study selection: South Africa . .6 1.3 Outline . .8 Chapter 2. Literature review 11 2.1 Food riots in history . 11 2.2 Contentious politics and social movements . 14 2.2.1 Relative deprivation literature . 16 2.2.2 Resource mobilization literature . 18 2.2.3 An integrated approach . 20 2.2.4 Other theories . 21 2.3 Conclusion . 22 Chapter 3. Disentangling the causal relationship between food price spikes and socio-political unrest in African countries 24 3.1 Introduction . 24 3.2 Literature . 26 3.3 Theory . 29 3.4 Data and methods . 31 3.4.1 The dependent variable: Urban socio-political unrest . 32 viii 3.4.2 The independent variable: Domestic food price shocks . 34 3.4.3 The instrumental variables . 35 3.4.4 Control variables . 41 3.5 Estimation and results . 42 3.5.1 Different types of unrest . 51 3.5.2 Robustness checks . 52 3.6 Conclusion . 54 Chapter 4. From anti-apartheid movement to service delivery protest: A case study of protest in South Africa 57 4.1 Introduction . 57 4.2 A brief history of the anti-apartheid movement . 58 4.3 Social movements in post-apartheid South Africa . 62 4.3.1 The Soweto Electricity Crisis Committee . 65 4.3.2 The Concerned Citizens Forum . 67 4.3.3 The Western Cape Anti-Eviction Campaign . 68 4.4 The outbreak of service delivery protests . 69 4.4.1 Tracking service delivery protests . 72 4.4.2 Protests and rising food prices . 75 4.5 Service delivery protests and social movement theories . 78 4.5.1 Political opportunity theory . 80 4.5.2 Resource mobilization theory . 83 4.6 Conclusion . 84 Chapter 5. Relative deprivation, inequality, and food security as drivers of service delivery protests 86 5.1 Introduction . 86 5.2 Relative deprivation in South Africa, 1994–2000 . 87 5.3 Income inequality in South Africa . 90 5.3.1 The deracialization of income inequality . 91 5.3.2 Decomposing income inequality, 1995–2011 . 92 5.4 Relative deprivation and protest participation in South Africa, 2002 to 2011: Afrobarometer surveys . 98 5.4.1 Hypotheses . 104 ix 5.4.2 The first-stage analysis: Relative deprivation . 106 5.4.3 Food as a driver of relative deprivation . 114 5.4.4 The second stage: Protest participation . 117 5.5 Conclusion . 124 Chapter 6. Determinants of individual participation in service delivery protest: Survey evidence from Cape Town, South Africa 127 6.1 Introduction . 127 6.2 Earlier survey studies of micro-level determinants of protest partic- ipation . 128 6.3 Theory and Hypotheses . 129 6.4 Survey Methods and Data . 132 6.4.1 Questionnaire design . 132 6.4.2 The study area . 134 6.4.3 Sampling design . 137 6.5 Survey implementation . 138 6.5.1 Data . 141 6.6 Analysis and results . 148 6.7 Conclusion . 160 Chapter 7. Conclusion: Review of the findings, contributions, and policy implications 162 7.1 Summary of findings and contributions . 162 7.2 Policy implications . 166 7.3 Future research agenda . 169 Appendices 171 Appendix A. Supplemental tables and figures 172 Appendix B. Afrobarometer survey question merge 188 Appendix C. Cape Flats survey design and documentation 193 Bibliography 219 x Vita 232 xi List of Tables 1.1 Comparison of South Africa and Brazil . .8 3.1 Summary statistics of main sample . 40 3.2 First-stage model results . 43 3.3 Fixed effects results . 45 3.4 Endogenous probit model results . 48 3.5 Probit model results for different unrest outcomes . 52 4.1 South African election turnout . 82 5.1 Estimates of income inequality in South Africa . 91 5.2 Summary statistics of Afrobarometer sample . 108 5.3 Individual and group relative deprivation: OLS regression results . 111 5.4 Protest participation: Probit regression results . 120 5.5 Protest participation: Endogenous probit regression results . 122 6.1 Strata demographics . 140 6.2 Survey response . 141 6.3 Stratified sample demographics . 142 6.4 Gender and protest participation in respondent’s lifetime . 146 6.5 Gender and protest participation in the past year . 148 6.6 Participant age and gender by protest category . 150 6.7 Summary statistics . 154 6.8 Service delivery protest logistic model results . 155 6.9 Correlation between party support and grivance . 158 6.10 Violent protest logistic model results . 159 A.1 Probit results . 176 A.2 Endogenous probit results using international commodity price in- strumental variable . 177 xii A.3 Endogenous probit results using local rainfall instrumental variable . 178 A.4 Endogenous probit results using both instrumental variables . 179 A.5 Endogenous probit results for different types of unrest (part 1) . 180 A.6 Endogenous probit results for different types of unrest (part 2) . 181 A.7 Robustness checks (part 1) . 182 A.8 Robustness checks (part 2) . 183 A.9 Food price changes and predicted probability of unrest by country . 184 A.10 LexisNexis South Africa media sources metadata . 185 A.11 Afrobarometer living conditions responses . 186 A.12 Afrobarometer group economic situation responses . 187 xiii List of Figures 1.1 FAO Food Price Index . .2 3.1 Domestic consumer food indices and the FAO Food Price Index . 28 3.2 Social unrest events by country (1990–2012) . 32 3.3 Social unrest events and international food commodity prices . 33 3.4 Predicted probabilities of unrest by country . 51 4.1 Crowd incidents by year (1997–2013) . 73 4.2 Articles including “service delivery” and “protest” . 74 4.3 South African domestic food price index . 76 4.4 Household food spending by income quintile (IES) . 77 5.1 Overall Theil index of income inequality . 93 5.2 Between-group income inequality . 94 5.3 Group contributions to income inequality . 95 5.4 Within-group income inequality . 96 5.5 Personal living conditions compared to others .
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